Merry Christmas - Images

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Near Record Highs Sunday & Monday - Cold Front Late Monday

"This Weekend is to Dawn with a Warm Light"

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: High pressure of the season continues to provide for an unusually start to celestial winter which begins today, 12/21 at 12:11PM EDT as the earths most southern possible latitude will be aligned with the sun along the Tropic of Capricorn. Inland temperatures into the low-mid 80Fs which immediate beach-sides around 79F- 82F. No rain and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies at times with plenty of sunshine. Predawn satellite imagery shows virtually cloud free skies except a few clouds North Florida.

A strong storm system is taking shape today through tomorrow to impact parts of Eastern Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama with severe storms with strong straight line winds and possible tornadoes. A broader expanse to the north with heavier rain (ice storm in progress in Oklahoma right now). This system will enter North Florida and into Central Florida as we progress into Monday late. This system could affect the Panhandle toward other parts of North Florida north of I4 mainly in regard to 'stronger' weather.

MONDAY: Wind SSW-S at 15mph and very warm, again, near possible record high temperatures (and again near record overnight warm minimums near the beaches) especially near the east coast in the absence of the sea breeze in the early to mid afternoon. Possible showers and thunderstorms late Monday Central to South Florida after 3pm through early-mid evening, but this has wavered back and forth from none to some with each model run.

MONDAY/ TUESDAY/December 23rd -24th: The front is expected to pass across Central Florida between late afternoon through 2AM from north to south and could be across Central direct in the 10pm to 1AM time frame. There is expected to be some post-frontal cloud cover and rains mainly along and north of I4 which could extend into the areas further south as the upper level support for such conditions will be pulling out to the east and northeast during the day. 

"The front is expected to pass across Central Florida between late afternoon through 2AM from north to south and could be across Central direct in the 10pm to 1AM time frame. "

Christmas Eve Day should or could start out mostly cloudy but with rapid clearing during the early through mid afternoon from north to south as the secondary moisture band associated with the lagging mid level trough (the front aloft) glides south. Winds becoming northerly and breeze Christmas Eve day through evening but nothing terribly unusual. Overnight lows at the Coast Christmas Eve from the Cape and south will remain in the lower 60Fs but much cooler toward the west side of the state and interior as well as North Florida. This has been the pattern since 'cold spells began' for meteorological winter (December 1st) this year, and that story has not changed nor does it appear will change for some time to come. The short of it is, apparently conditions will be marvelous cloud and temperature wise by and before Sunset for folks north of a Vero Beach to Sarasota line, though wind might be a small issue. 

CHRISTMAS DAY: ENE winds with highs in the mid-upper 60Fs; could be quite a bit of Atlantic stratocumulus clouds developing which might make it feel a bit cooler. Winds will be calming down slowly during the day and into the next though, from the ENE-east.

"A Lone Palm stands Tall against falling Darkness
 in the Light of a New Day" 

BEYOND/2014: Possible turbulent times ahead. The front will lay low near the Florida Straits and make an attempt to work back north (South Florida to South Central in such case might see more rain), but the bigger concern is the time frame from late December 30th through January 3rd 2014. This is too far out in time for model accuracy, though for example and in general 3 out of 4 daily GFS model runs have shown this time frame to be a sticky one for several days now. Possible low forming over the warmer Loop Current waters of the eastern Gulf to move across North Florida. Details should follow in this regard in forthcoming updates and as such,  will become evident by what is announced on local TV and radio networks after Christmas as we head to the New Year time frame. 

Much Cooler Monday & Wednesday, Warm Up into Christmas Eve ?

On this date in 2010, beachside bird baths froze over 

29F in Cape Canaveral and colder elsewhere 12/14/2010

THIS WEEKEND: Warm with periods of clouds. The extent of how warm it will be as winds become more southerly to southwest will be contingent upon cloud cover. Currently it is a bit cloudy in this location but suspect with some heating the morning inversion will break and make way for partly cloudy skies which then might cloud right back up again with more heating. High clouds are not far away either, so either way suspect the north half of the state will see more clouds than not at some level whereas South Florida appears will be   partly cloudy all day while North Florida will be cloudy to mostly cloudy and a bit cooler as a result.  

Sunday will again be warm mainly South 1/2 of state as a frontal boundary will be gliding southward during the day, to be located close to a  Palm Bay/Sarasota line by 1pm. Cloud cover to accompany the front and maybe some sprinkles with better chances of rain north of I-4 and again in the afternoon south of Palm Bay toward the east side of the state toward West Palm Beach area or further south yet still. Winds becoming west to NW behind the front. According to the latest guidance the drier air doesn't really start to move in until near sunset and then phases in gradually under NW-NNW winds, but mostly so after 1AM Monday morning though we will definitely feel it within an hour or so after dark. 

It is at that time (1AM to sunrise) temperatures will be most notably very cool to almost cold as far south as Punta Gorda and through Central Florida except east of US1 and more so along the A1A strip from Cape Canaveral and south. Regardless, it will be a very cool to an early day cold one relatively speaking for a start, but remain cool all day with highs remaining in the mid-upper 60Fs (colder north) and lower 70Fs South. 

Quick swing around to easterly winds overnight into Tuesday will make for a warmer day but another impulse in the mid levels will give cause to swing the winds back to NNW-N and make for some more cool to coolish mornings through Friday with afternoon highs in the upper 60Fs but gradually warming with time by the weekend and into early next week as winds become more southerly with time (Christmas is coming).

The bigger question next is what will occur Christmas Eve Day and Christmas Day. The model guidance is varied vastly in this regard from very cold (the coldest of the year so far) to 'not so fast buddy'...latest run shows 'nothing unusual' but a bit of a cool down. Point being, too soon to say for certain but timing would be about right for a frontal passage based on the latest rhythm of the atmospheric wave frequency that has been in place for about 2 weeks now. 

Things change, and The Conductor seems to still be deciding which Opus Movement to select for a Welcoming Song to Christmas Day.

Yesterday morning around the same time as 3 years ago.

Sky Sanctum's Images of Crescendo and Legato

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After Cool Down Monday, Warm Through Next Weekend (Little to No Rain)

TODAY: Pressure gradient is relaxing as high pressure loosens it's influence gradually as a large upper level trough prepares to plow south and east across the majority of the country this week. Light winds this morning and afternoon as an inverted trough just off shore results in convergence and some rains showers which 'could' work on shore as they have already in some areas prior to day break. They will be moving a bit slower than past days; with daytime 'heating', moisture trapped in the low levels could induce additional cloud cover and a coolishness to the air along the immediate beaches, but the wind factor will be greatly diminished. Areas that are out and away from cloud cover will feel quite pleasant, but exactly where those areas will be is up for grabs.

TONIGHT:TOMORROW  Not much change from prior post other than that it appears that the  'inverted trough' offshore might develop a surface low type circulation a bit sooner than anticipated as of the previous post which is actually better news for those who prefer warmer weather in the long run. 

The effect in this case will be for a northerly (NW) wind to develop tomorrow (Monday) with highs potentially remaining in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs from dead Central and South contingent upon the timing, and cooler North, especially along and north of I-4 as colder air to the immediate north will be invited southward courtesy of the NW wind off the landmass (in all areas) which will be modified to warmer the further south it gets (esp. to South Florida).

TUESDAY/END OF WEEK: The country will be quite cool to cold for this time of year for much of the week, but at this point it 'appears' Florida and parts of extreme SE Georgia will escape the worst for the duration of the 'event' , though extreme North Florida will eventually get into the act to a much lesser degree.

Below is the Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast temperature plot for 18z or 1pm Eastern Time for next Sunday as an example of the temperature spreads across the U.S. The warmer the air, the more 'red' , the cooler the air the more blue to dark blue, if not purple.

Shown above: a stationary boundary across North Florida as  temperatures
this day along and west of I-95 approach the lower to mid 80Fs (next Sunday). And that is quite a bit of a way off in time, so this will likely change but for now will hold tight to this general assumption

 
LONG RANGE Plot below was generated two days ago though.

BEYOND: The boundary to bring the cold air across the country (shown as stationary in the previous image or modulating from north to south) will have quite a bit of 'density' behind it; as a result there is a respectable change as has been shown by the 'beyond time' GFS slant that it will eventually sink south into Central Florida making for a 'cool down' but not anywhere near to the very cold 'degrees' the rest of the country will be experiencing. 

We could begin to see a prolonged cool period though going into the fullness of the end of the second full week of December and into the third one, but even still guidance at this rate is showing onshore flow which means moderated temperature conditions locally due to the influence of near shore Atlantic Waters (BUT, things change).

Guidance has also been showing the coldest yet still to come for a two day period well out in time toward the 14th -16th time frame (in general) on the wings of Northwest winds. Little to no rain is foreseen should this particular aforementioned conditional expression manifest though, so what that means is some 'fine days may be in store beginning Tuesday and beyond for a good week across the Florida Peninsula".

"Florida Might Rest in the Calmer Waters Safe from the Raging Cold"

Much Better Outlook For The Hoiday Weekend

Happy Thanksgivings To Come From and To  You Today and Every Day.

TODAY: Beautiful day in store but a bit cool after cold temperatures this morning statewide. Wind to gradually shift to the NNE then NE and ENE by tonight with some shallow low topped stratocumulus clouds moving ashore mostly along and east of I-95 then dissolving across the drier air across the land-mass

Proclamation of Thanks Giving by Abraham Lincoln is available online to read

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Wind becoming easterly to ENE and quite light over night to early morning. Drainage northerly flow inland. Lows at the coast on Friday will be nearly 15F degrees warmer than this morning as a result but still very cool (but not as cold) inland. Afternoon highs in the 70Fs after today through the weekend most areas. Chance of traceable amounts of rain sprits mainly along or east of I95 (if any) but a measurable amount could occur mostly north of the Cape to JAX, but remain isolated in nature.

SUNDAY: Continued quite pleasant other than some annoying lower clouds that are possible but full out 'rain' is unlikely at most. Cloud decks could become rather extensive in the mid or late day hours and perhaps close to the coast around sunrise hours as well.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: A low pressure area it seems will form east of the state causing the wind to back toward the NNW-N on the back side of its circulation, again resulting in a much cooler morning statewide Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, with a cooler day all day Tuesday with highs perhaps not quite reach 70F but it is not looking like it will be as cold statewide as this morning. 
No other cold spells are foreseen so far going into the second week of December as it stands in the latest Global Forecast System (GFS) model runs , though some rain chances might enter the picture more solidly for North and maybe Central Florida by NEXT weekend.

Chance of Severe Weather Continues Today/Tonight

Watching the Area mainly in between the red arrows, but anywhere really between the orange (if not further South) will need to be watched and carefully scrutinized as the situation develops (or doesn't) during the day today. See Note ***

TODAY: Not much change really from previous post. Low pressure system is taking shape south of the Louisiana coast and is forecast to lift NE ward during the next 24 hours and accelerate up the U.S. East Coast. For Florida, SE winds today to remain quite breezy trending more toward the SSE-S and eventually SSW-SW overnight tonight.  Upper level trough to the jet stream level approaches the Florida West Coast toward midnight which should abet in mid-level lift in the presence of increasing divergence through the upper levels,  and given the overnight areas of interest it appears will be most greatly affected,  this post focused mostly on mid-level dynamics since low level instability is weak during the overnight hours.

Otherwise, possible rainshowers and maybe a clap of thunder from mid afternoon toward late afternoon Central to north Central Florida during peak instability hours. 

(***NOTE: There is not expected too much if any instability north of I-4, though a word of caution not shown in this graphic, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) is outlining the panhandle/big bend to Northwest Florida more favorably for severe weather as of this early hour of the day which would likely occur much earlier than that over Central or South Florida, but there are a few uncertainties remaining. This post is not showing that area due to lack of instability during daylight hours as rain is already moving into that area before sunrise.)

TONIGHT: November 27th.:  Possibly two rounds of 'weather' but of what nature that weather will harvest remains an unknown. Will be watching for possibly a weak circulation forming near the Loop Current where the greatest instability will reside due to greater low level instability in the vicinity of the warmer Gulf Waters although models are not picking up on any such event to occur at this time. 

Per this image, best Upper Level Divergence will be approaching at and after 1AM coincident with the potential for a low level jet to form in the region that will be most unstable during daylight hours today but will have lost much of that instability after dark.

Most activity might remain in the mid-levels and not even be realized at ground level (if any does exist at all). The overall Severe Threat appears to be isolated at best from  small , fast moving storm cells.

Given the high amount of Bulk Shear and storm relative helicity indicators per the Mesoscale Analysis page looming over the Gulf waters and as this image shows above with the red/blue wind barb couplets to approach (although suspect they won't be as perpendicular to each other over night tonight)...if an overnight low level jet develops there could be rotating storms producing strong surface winds of severe strength with embedded   tornado or two which would move quite rapidly and be 'in and out' with little to no warning. So far, the most hazardous time frame appears to be from around 11pm toward the west side or a bit later through around 6AM to 7Am. Latest guidance has this storm system clearing the east coast a bit more rapidly than previous model runs.

WEDNESDAY/THANKSGIVING: Not much change in thinking from previous post. Coldest morning so far Thanksgiving morning with lows from the Canaveral area and south east of US 1 in the lower 50Fs to near 50F falling rapidly toward the Upper 30Fs to Lower 40Fs in the far NW Orlando proper area toward Clermont  Lake County and up the interior toward Ocala and north Florida. Warmest zone along and east of US1 and even warmer along and east of A1A from Cape Canaveral South to Miami and through the Keys.