Chance of Thunderstorms Remains for Later Today

JANUARY 5, 2014 , Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Brief post as little to be written from previous post (yesterday). Chance of thunderstorms today continues from mainly regions south of I-10 and near and north of Lake Okeechobee, with the signals of a more refined area pointing toward Central Florida as of the mid-morning hour. 

As noted previously, light to moderate instability in the absence of any low level shear with no discernible boundaries and only weak mid-level shear with weak divergence aloft (though it is cold aloft) should lead to some thunderstorms today , mainly inland from the immediate east coast though not exclusively so. Some areas could see up to an inch of rain but many are more likely to see in the .20" - .40" range (less than 1/2 inch), with perhaps some areas receiving more of a lighter but longer 'soaking' and/or a more dense overcast sky later today as opposed to rains.

  

The bigger 'storms' might first initiate toward the West Coast and spread a canopy of high to mid level clouds eastward which would then turn down the convective oven's energy level (lower the CAPE - Convective Available Potential Energy due to precedent cloud cover), but some 'voracity (spell check for 'vorticity)' coming across Central seems to be the prime impetus to keep some of the activity rolling along and off shore mainly Central to North Florida. North Florida will see weaker Cape and not sure the vorticity impulses will cross that region quite as fully to warrant a strong storm outcry much of anywhere today other than an isolated  stronger huff and puff here or there.

Rains should end by early evening post-dark most regions but some areas will likely still be seeing at least some drips up through 9pm .

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Same as previous post with near to just above normal temperatures, mainly because of warmer overnight lows.

THURSDAY: The GFS has shifted gears to a low to non-existent storm threat; however, will watch this as that is quite a shift in gears from several previous model runs and not fully sold yet on the lesser rain chances until we see some consistency on what spits out from the GFS in upcoming generations. Two more runs will tell the story though more than likely. OTHERWISE...

INTO FRIDAY: Friday looks to be the 'coldest' morning (40Fs and lower 50Fs mainly) for quite some time to come with a slow warming trend beyond until Sunday. Like last Sunday, as the warmth returns it brings with it deeper moisture and coastal rain chances. 

BEYOND; The other difference now from the previous guidance is an increasing coastal rain chance in the extended. That too will be worth a watching for as the latest is actually indicating measurable rain amounts for a few consecutive days going into early next week. Suspect this all might be coming from an overnight model bias of the 06Z (1AM EST) GFS run ( not using any other model guidance at this time for this blogpost), and as such, it will be interesting to see what emerges later today and tomorrow in subsequent guidance.  

The End.  

Storms Possible Monday/Thursday But Warm Once Again

January 3rd last year (2014) On a Cold Start to the Day 

TODAY: Coastal showers and warmer as the 70F degree isotherm moved in on the East Central coast during the mid-morning hours. Patchy cloudy cover with a few showers continue widely apart and more could occur most any time, possibly more likely at or near sunset but the better chance favors overall to be dry with an uptick in the late night to overnight hours from the Cape and north. Overnight lows tonight much milder through the 60Fs range after highs today in the mid-upper 70Fs with some spotty low 80Fs. Early morning fog could develop inland but chances look very slim.

MONDAY: Chance of showers and thunderstorms . Guidance insists on some decent winter time CAPE running around 1500-1800 and some bulk shear across Central to North Central Florida. Some thunder could occur as far north is I-10 but instability is further limited there. Temperatures aloft will be quite cold in the mid-levels tomorrow so there is a chance of some good wind gusts in or near storms if we can get any surface based storms well rooted. Lacking will be any discernible low level boundaries and better bulk shear for stronger storms, and the sea breezes this time of year are not conducive to deep convection since ocean temperatures are so cold (except modified well inland). Storms or showers could begin by noon time, though some early morning coastal activity is always possible.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Fairly mundane pattern returns with a lite to moderate NE breeze 24/7. Though coastal showers are possible most any time the chances are very low . It would be presumptuous to attempt to pinpoint exactly where and/or when this far in advance. Temperatures will be mild though with lows ranging through the 60Fs and highs in the lower to mid 70Fs (inland). In general , fairly 'normal' but overnight lows above normal for this time of year.

THURSDAY: Guidance implies a weak surface circulation near the Loop Current west of Tampa could form as more upper level energy ejects eastward off Southern Mexico toward Florida.  Thursday looks (for now) to be a real
 Scooper :  in and out "Wham Bam but no Mayhem" but not without a definite signature of a wash out or nearly so,  for if not rain and elevated thunder with some gusty wind possible then plain rain with clouds later and little drying possible of wet grounds due to cloud cover. 

At least it won't be cold enough to sleet though with 60Fs and lower 70Fs mostly. Winds aloft on Thursday will be stronger as will bulk shear, but now this day has the opposite problem for stronger storms than Monday will have; that is, lack of low level instability even though temperatures aloft will be fairly cold. 

Thus, neither Monday or Thursday has it 'all together' for a more definite "this screams strong to severe storms' calling. Consider this a whisper and gentle nudge instead. "Psst...you never can say never but don't tell".

BEYOND: Friday and so forth will be much cooler to  cold  Friday and breezy with a fairly rapid swing of the winds around the N-NNE to NE by mid-day Saturday. Lows appear to be running in the 40Fs range with highs in the general in the lower to mid 60Fs, but it'll be over in a snap. By Sunday it'll be back to status quo of this season.  No 'bitter icy frigid' cold (those below 45F but dare we say anything below 55F fits that description? )  foreseen in the Global (Crystal Ball) Forecast System (GFS) time range beyond day 8.

Much Warmer w/ East Side Rain Chance Increase Sunday/Monday

"Weekend Approaches"

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Inverted coastal trough close to shore clearly evident this morning by on surface observations. The gusty winds of yesterday became a faded memory quickly within a few hours after midnight and drainage flow down the spine of the state from north to south is attempting to reach even some coastal communities.  Temperatures vary last hour as much as a 71F at Pompano Beach to a 25F at Marianna. Most inland Central Florida spots are running the mid 40Fs gamut while closer to the coast a full 10F degrees warmer. South Florida east side as would most often be expected running the warmest in the mid-upper 60Fs.

When the winds subsided this area (of writing) after midnight the outside air temperature dropped a good 6 degrees within one hour as a result. 

Outside of the much lighter wind today, high and some lower cloud coverage could occur off and on almost anywhere. This will affect the afternoon high temperatures as will the continued penetration of the of high pressure far to the north of Florida in this very progressive weather pattern of recent days. 

The original high pressure will be well northeast of Maine today the one that was descending southward from the Northwest Plains in the previous post) as another one drops in only to exacerbate the current cold situation (especially for the northeast states). 

Over Florida, the coastal trough will work inland over the South Half of the state somewhat creating a bit of   "pseuduo-stationary- cold front' "  (see above) type situation with the 'warmer parts' running generally from Cocoa Beach west to a Southern Tampa Bay line and south. 

Highs today will vary from the lower through mid 60Fs and into the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs south of that boundary (wherever it ends up ), but again, cloud cover will ultimately be yet another deciding contributor to just exactly how warm it will get in any one location (or how cool it will remain). Ultimately, it will be SW Florida that 's in the digs today for warmest temperatures.

On Saturday, the high pressure shown below will shunt the boundary further south, thus, it will be cooler on Saturday than today across Central Florida and even by a few degrees over South Florida. North Florida just remains like always, a part of Southern Georgia and Alabama as opposed to being influenced by peninsular surrounding waters. Temperatures thus today and Saturday will run a few degrees below normal for afternoon highs, but closer to normal for lows.

Meanwhile, a weak area of surface low pressure will form near the south tip of Texas overnight Saturday night as the final high pressure area will have moved offshore the Mid Atlantic states allow SSE winds to develop the boundary shown above into a 'warm front slash (/) coastal trough' (shown below) tracing along the Gulf Coast southern state borders (see below); thus, warming overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning for a potential pleasant sunrise surprise along the immediate Florida east coast Sunday morning with sunrise temperatures  within a few degrees of 70F.

SUNDAY: Much warmer with inland highs ranging from mid-upper 70Fs to near 80F (South) with coolest temperatures at the beaches, especially as anticipating the ocean temperatures will have been lowering over the past several days, with the coast closer to mid-70F (if not lower 70Fs) north of Sebastian Inlet.

Chance of showers near the coast by or before sunrise as well, with patchy cloud cover elsewhere. This 'rain chance' continues all day Sunday for the east coast beaches, but exactly where has been shifting around between and within various model runs, but the area of far North Brevard and north seems to be a consistent area as does SE Florida with Brevard/Indian River Counties being in and out of the chances. Inland areas look to remain rain free though over the weekend other than a passing spritz on the windshield.

MONDAY: This is the bigger day in question in regard to thunder. So far, the latest trend of the GFS runs favor a line running from Vero Beach to Sarasota and south for thunder but much will be contingent at that point in time in where the most available moisture resides. Sufficient instability and cold air aloft will be over all but the the Panhandle and anywhere south of I4 (at least) for thunder. The GFS is now favoring that aforementioned area though per the overnight model runs though earlier runs also including almost anywhere south of I4. In short, wouldn't be surprised to see 'thunderstorms' introduced at some point in time for some locations at a later time in the official forecast. Otherwise...

BEYOND: Another very weak frontal boundary tracks out to sea elongating back westward with the coldest of air on the northern side remaining mainly north of I4 if not I-10 for several days toward the following Thursday or Friday, Beyond that time, there is a big variability in the temperature forecast going into mid-latter January. 

The normal trend is that the period from about now through the first week of February is normally the coldest (on average) time of year for much of Florida (for an extended string of days) with the last week being a real bugaboo some years. Severe weather chances (on the long-time scale (climatic)/synoptic scale level) also begin to increase around that same time up through the month of March.

Otherwise, there remains a slight chance in the shorter term that  there will continue to be a chance of light showers from time to time along the east coast to partially inland , with per chance more clouds than not - - which has been the running theme for this winter season in lieu of cold dry Arctic Air Masses.

 Looks like a fairly long string of days with prevailing light ENE winds at the surface though keeping overnights quite mild and afternoons pleasant but not overly 'warm' either into Thursday once we get beyond Saturday.

Cool Today, Much Colder / Windy Much of Thursday , Storms Monday?

Sunrise Tuesday, December 6, Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Frontal boundary has cleared the area obviously will a much cooler start to the day; a secondary one to follow near to just after sunset. 

High pressure building south from the NW Plains states will drop into Old Dixie tonight into tomorrow before traversing slowly east ward across The Deep South states (north of Florida) on Friday and weakening.  

Today mostly sunny with some thinner high clouds with highs north half of state much cooler than that past few days, mainly in the lower-mod 60Fs  - warmer south of a Cocoa Beach - Tampa Bay line with upper 60Fs to 70Fs (far South).

"Epiphany"

TONIGHT: Secondary 'surge' from another trough slicking by and across Central Florida in the 6-8pm time frame will be followed by increasing NW - NNW winds especially toward midnight to sunrise and remaining elevated up through early afternoon before slowly decreasing throughout the remainder of late day and early evening. 

 Lows in the lower 40Fs to upper 30Fs mainly west and north of the Orlando area, with widespread mid-upper 40Fs.   The bigger story MIGHT be the wind for a 12 hour time frame as winds just above 'the deck' around 2000 ft. are forecast to be 30 knots and those winds are accompanied by much colder air in the 2-4000 foot layer above ground, which could mean for strong gusts within an hour or two after sunrise on going through early afternoon. 

Suspect a Lake Wind  advisory will be hoisted for time on Thursday as a result with highs only in the lower 50Fs to upper 40Fs north of a Cocoa Beach to Tampa line once again as they shift to N-NNE  by sunrise.  Wind,  especially at the east coast and intracoastals,  in the 18 G 30 mph for a time and 'chilly ' by late morning with temperatures in the lower 50Fs. 

Wind becomes more NNE-NE later in the day and decrease. It might actually 'feel warmer' in many areas toward sunset or even after dark than it will in the middle of the afternoon, especially at the beaches as air mass modification begins. 

There could also be a deck of pancake stratocumulus clouds especially at the beaches but suspect any light rain will remain offshore due to the dry air over the land leading to evaporation of the sparsely thin moist layer above ground.  

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Only slow warm up with highs back into the lower to mid 60Fs and eventually some upper 60Fs by Saturday (warmer South Florida though) but much lighter wind with coastal to inland pancake stratocumulus clouds mainly. Overall though, these days will be warmer than today and Thursday and generally 'pleasant'. A coastal trough will be setting up off shore but suspect if there is to be any rain showers, there they will remain. 

SUNDAY - MONDAY: Bigger warm up with temperatures to or above 'normal' once again, Guidance is up and down on rain showers this day but seems to be in favor for the more so than not and would lean that way. Low pressure , though weak, forms near the Southeast tip of Texas traversing as an open wave along the north Gulf . 

STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY: Better chance of rain though enters into the picture on Monday , and if the GFS trend continues, might need to introduce some thunder south of I-4 (at least) with possibly stronger storms as well. 

Mild to Very Warm the Next 10 Days (at least)

"..they will be as many as the sands of the seashore"

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Warm to 'very' warm with temperatures running 'at to above' normal and muggy with early morning fog or low clouds possible any of those days. Warmest days appears will be Sunday and Monday (Tuesday south of 528) as well, with highs in the lower-mid 80Fs in a few locations away from the immediate sea shore.  Afternoon high temperatures though will largely be dependent upon cloud cover or lack thereof on any given day.

A 'cool' front is forecast to sink south down the peninsula on Tuesday with cloud cover and possible some showers Central late Tuesday afternoon into early evening. Wind almost immediately wings around to northeast to east behind the boundary so lows might never get below the lowers 60Fs along the immediate east coast south of The Cape along the A1A corridor from Cape Canaveral south through the keys Wednesday, Thursday mornings. 

...The Seventh Step

NEW YEAR's EVE/NEW YEAR'S DAY: Chances of cloud cover and maybe some sprinkles near the coast as a secondary 'cold plunge' impacts most of the west half of the U.S., especially the Inter-Mountain Regions of the Rockies eastward into the North Central Plains state. Meanwhile, Florida will continue to be 'the hot spot' as herds of wild buffalo and snow geese flock south, man your 'insanity' locals. Temperatures will be crazy cold out west, but Florida will remain 'high' and for the most part, 'dry' as well.

With a frontal passage on Tuesday, the quick wind shift would induce a fairly long lasting 'coastal trough' along the Gulf Stream waters and to the east of them which could induce periods of cloud cover or even some fog mostly during the over nights to early-mid morning time frames once again. no truly dry air is foreseen nor are cold temperatures forecast the entire first week of January (so far at least).

Highs into the 80F's - Strong Storm Chance Dwindling?

 

TODAY: Warm with a southerly wind becoming more SSW-SW during the day, highs in the upper 70Fs into the lower to mid 80Fs mainly south of I-4 with warmest temperatures inland (Central) and all of South Florida away from bodies of water. 

Chances of showers south of I-4 after 3pm through dark, but not thoroughly convinced these will take on the form of thunder though there is a remote chance. Overall, the scenario from the last post is becoming 'less threatening' in regard to severe weather, with some guidance suggesting that many areas might not see rain at all today or tonight. The upper level trough is deepening more toward the west toward Texas rather than further east with the most upper level support for a continued QLCS type  (Quasi-linear Convective System) squall line dampening out as the lower level features outrun that upper level support.

A tornado watch is currently in place across most of the Panhandle this morning as the Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, OK. , suggests that it might need to be extend further east in their 7:AM update.

THIS AFTERNOON: Again, warm this afternoon outside of any shower chances. The cold front on approach is not forecast to reach diagonally across Central Florida until well after midnight. Some guidance suggests that the front itself will go through completely 'dry' other than cloud cover with not a significant drop in temperature behind the boundary, with lows falling behind it only into the lower 60F's south of a line running from Titusville toward Tampa Bay . Though some stronger storms are possible near I-4,   winds from the surface up through the mid-upper levels will become increasingly unidirectional with height in the midst of poor lapse rates and weak surface instability; thus, this appears to  be a cause for a weakening 'squall line' with time with some moderate to heavy rain showers with some lightning aloft) possible as far south as shown. As of this early pre-sunrise hour, the graphic below 'might' even be overly generous on the 'strong storm' side of things

MOST LIGHTNING RESTRICTED TO ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4
(though some glancing strikes are possible a bit further south as well.)

CHRISTMAS EVE: Cloudy with a chance of light showers after 7PM. The better 'rain chance' now appears will occur from after 2:30 pm through 6:pm prior to what will remain of a pre-frontal 'trough' mainly south of I-4. The front itself will still be many hours away. Temperatures running mainly in the lower 70Fs most of the evening with 'gooey' air mass conditions.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Front will have cleared to South Florida by mid-morning in a vastly weakened state with a lingering boundary but barely even clearing the state. Cloud cover to decrease all of North Florida at first into Central but suspect some high clouds might begin to stream back in later in the day from the southwest. Highs mainly in the mi-upper 60Fs toward 70F , warmest South Central and South Florida.

DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS: No longer looking to even be a hint of 'cold'. Wind to veer more northeast to east northeast remaining light with lows in the lower 60Fs near the coast and a bit cooler inland (colder north Florida). This day might also see cloud cover to partly cloudy skies with showers near the east coast south of Sebastian inlet as the frontal boundary remnants begin to lift back north.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Saturday might be a bit cloudy once again but temperatures return to the lower-mid 70Fs , coolest at the coast north of Fort Pierce as sea surface temperatures off Cape Canaveral this morning have been hovering around the 67F -68F mark, and the light onshore flow will affect those nearest the ocean for the next several days. Clearing possible though on Sunday, so as of now, Sunday looks like the nicest day post-Christmas.

BEYOND: Next front not slated until another week from now, in the meantime we'll experience continued somewhat cooler evening and mild afternoons, running close to or a bit above seasonal norms.

"Weeping May Endure for a Night, but Joy Comes in The Morning!"

FIRST FULL DAY OF WINTER 2014-2015

TODAY: The 'Winter Season" Officially began at 6:03PM Sunday Evening. Comfortable temperatures with little fan fare other than persistent bands of light to moderate rain across mainly North to far North Central prevailed under otherwise pleasant temperatures and increasing cloud coverage which we will be under off and on through the first parts of Christmas Day, though not sure South Florida will ever clear.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY: Continued pleasant and 'muggy' conditions as far as December norms run, with temperatures running at to a bit above 'normal'. A cold front will be approaching Central Florida late Wednesday into early Christmas Morning. Otherwise, warm again Tuesday but not as warm as could be due to cloud coverage. Rain chances look to be very low however

WEDNESDAY= CHRISTMAS EVE: Chance of strong to near severe storms appears limited to a line running from Southern Volusia County west toward north side of Tampa Bay and north. Heavier rainfall totals are also in for the making especially closer toward I-10 as a series of 'impulses aloft' pass along the slowly progressing frontal boundary.

FRONT LOCATION AROUND 3AM CHRISTMAS MORNING. STORM CONDITIONS
ARE SHOWN FOR CHRISTMAS EVEN (FURTHER NORTH EARLIER)
AND CENTRAL/SOUTH AFTER 2PM - 10PM

Rain chance then increase for all of Central Florida after 1pm Christmas Eve Day and more say as we head toward the 2:30pm time frame through 10pm. Latest guidance in the rainfall fields are not showing much in rainfall totals however, likely due to poorer low level lapse rates and antecedent cloud coverage despite the favorable winds that otherwise could call for severe weather; hence, no bets are solid on whether strong severe storms could occur  , but the rain chances do look pretty good, if even for only a brief period in any one location. It does look like it could be raining in various locations across almost any where in Central or North Florida during the normal Christmas Eve church services, but exactly where is not possible to determine at this time.

"Weeping May Endure for a Night. but JOY Comes in the Morning"

THURSDAY = CHRISTMAS DAY: The front will be clearing Central Florida around midnight through sunrise Christmas Morning with WNW-NW winds to follow. It does not look now that it will be either as cold as previously thought nor as windy .  Clouds might be slow to clear though, especially running along a line from near Vero Beach toward Sarasota zones, and even so Central should be clearing from north to south through late morning into early afternoon . Otherwise, any showers will be long gone out of Central although a stray one cannot be ruled out up until around the 1pm hour across that region. For the most part though, clouds will be the rule until later in the day except South Florida will they will persist. Christmas Day looks to be mild with temperatures mainly in the 60Fs and closer to the lower-mid 70Fs parts of South Central / South Florida, though again, clouds might be about the only issue for at least part of the day.

BEYOND: Not much now to speak of. Guidance is backing off an any significant weather catastrophes to head toward Florida but balances that off with continued mild temperatures running near to above normal (though not 'hot' by any means). The coldest day over all foreseen now is the Day After Christmas and even that is nothing more than what we've already experience more than once since November.

 

Increase in Rain Chance Late Sunday - Possibly Severe Storms Tuesday Evening

But He replied to them, "When it is evening, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red.' "And in the morning, 'There will be a storm today, for the sky is red and threatening.' Do you know how to discern the appearance of the sky, but cannot discern the signs of the times? "

TONIGHT - SATURDAY: Little change in the current pattern in all regards with periods of some high clouds and cool temperatures The real shift in the pattern commences on Sunday as winds become southerly and a warm up ensues. There has been not a whole lot of change since the previous post nearly   5 days ago (at least), but guidance has jumped to and fro   in regard multiple times since it was made in regard to 'will it rain or not ?' 'if so, "will it be storms or only light rain or drizzle?' or "will it get really cold perhaps colder than it's been yet this season?" , or "will it not get all that cold as it now looks after all"? 

These are all questions that have arisen off and on the past few days   up through this morning   with the final resolve being right  back where we started and that being, 'a chance of some storms possibly strong to severe and perhaps some localized heavy rainfall totals(for this time of year) coming up next week".  
The other question then  was, "but if so, then when ?" .

SUNDAY-MONDAY:    6:03PM  WINTER BEINGS Sunday evening. 

Increasing high clouds working down into the mid levels from west to east during the day. Chance of rains along the west coast perhaps before dark spreading east with time by late night and continuing into most of Monday across Central Florida. There is a chance of some thunder with this activity as well but 'severe' storms (so far) will probably not be an issue with the position of the jet stream as being depicted. But wouldn't fully count it out either. Even if there is only heavier rain storms, could be some pretty strong wind gusts.

TUESDAY: Previously the GFS was showing two fronts going through and one lifting back north, but this is no longer the case. No fronts ever actually go through but do approach North Central Florida before lifting north and setting up for 'Round 2'. Both Monday and Tuesday might be cooler than depicted due to cloud cover and the low sun angle this time of year but otherwise we could be seeing mid-70Fs for temperatures  .     

LATE TUESDAY: Model runs this morning are not easily accessible from either of the two more commonly utilized websites, but if the third option  being seen is correct ( for the second run in a row now) the GFS is implying that there is a chance of Severe Weather Late Tuesday toward late afternoon or early evening up through perhaps as late as near sunrise Wednesday morning or the morning of Christmas Eve. 

If the GFS implications are correct, a Tornado Watch might well be necessary especially all of Tuesday night across all of Central and North Central Florida . At time, it appears there might end up being a  QLCS Squall Line moving through with precedent storm cells forming as well, but time is still early and things could change easily, and if so, we'll be able to whittle down to a more realistic time frame.

CHRISTMAS EVE:  Gradual clearing and breezy after mid-morning Wednesday morning with W-WNW winds gusting over 22 mph in the afternoon and cool with highs in the lower 60Fs falling quickly with the setting sun. After dark, lows falling into the lower 50Fs to upper 40Fs and winds dying down through out the night and into Christmas Day.

CHRISTMAS DAY: High pressure following the stormy previous days will be centered very close to over head making for a clear , nearly calm day, with highs in the mid-60Fs , maybe a bit cooler. Winds then swing to more southerly by the next two days as another front approaches. 

Will that front also poise for another potential severe bout? So far, it's up and down , back and forth on the verdict, way too far out in time to say, but wouldn't surprise me one bit. These kinds of events tend to come in families during the winter months, as the period from around the  Dec 38 -January 3rd continues to reflect a wavy, disturbed weather pattern overall.

Pleasant This Week - Big Changes Loom From DEC 21 - 31

Cold Winter Morning Collides with High Tide

TODAY- UPCOMING WEEK: Very pleasant, cool weather continues with   colder mornings as high pressure at the surface is to migrate across Florida early in the week with two possible 'frontal passages' on the way which will go through dry, at least until possibly next weekend. Monday and/or Tuesday could be near "Chamber of Commerce" like days with near calm winds with abundant sunshine, though there are hints we could be in for some periods of Cirrus Cloud decks streaming over head though timing is difficult to nail down (but there does appear that some on Monday which might hold temperatures down a few degrees in the afternoon if so, and not be as stellar as was advertised in previous model runs). Otherwise, The next front appears slated for early Wednesday as a non-event only to reinforce the current conditions we've seen of late.

BEGINNING THE DECEMBER 21 - 25 TIME FRAME: The GFS has hinted for a number of runs the past few days that some big changes could be in-store for the Eastern half of the U.S. in various ways, especially along the Gulf Coast states, Florida and up the eastern seaboard.  It's too early to say for certain what and how things will manifest, but the implication is for one if not two 'potential' near severe-like opportunities very close to Christmas Day as well as 4-6 after Christmas Day as well could be on the Holiday Platter. It's all speculation this far in advance, but such a pattern has occurred in the past in recalling a year when a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued on Christmas Eve and of the same year a Tornado Watch on New Year's Eve for once the pattern sets up, shes' good to go.  We'll just have to see what the winds of change will roll this way.

Otherwise, expect continued cool to very cool mornings with some slight modification in the morning temperatures toward the east coast later in the week but afternoons for the most part will begin to see the steady stream of the 70Fs range from low to mid 70Fs for the most part, with lows in the mid-upper 40Fs inland toward and into the lower-mid 50Fs (mainly at the east coast beaches) later in the upcoming week.

Colder Yet On Bleak Friday - Warming Trend Sunday through End of Next Week!

FRONT to Clear Central between 2-5PM.
Image shows position of today's front per the GFS model at 4 PM

HAPPY THANKSGIVING: Odd temperature spread across the state this morning, with the cold air not playing favorites. Some areas in South Central are colder than in Pensacola even as a second front will go through 'dry' today. It seems to be easiest to locate outside of a wind shift line by the dew points at 2000 ft (or the standard 925mb layer) as shown above. The boundary being marked by the moisture to dry air (shown in whites and grays).  Otherwise, breezy this afternoon with winds from the NW and highs in the lower to mid 60Fs with only few to none clouds over all but a quick temperature fall late in the day as the sun begins to set.

BLEAK FRIDAY: Lows ranging through the 30Fs from the Daytona to Crestview Line (interior mainly) and then a cross the lower to mid 40Fs most everywhere else except parts of South Florida. Tomorrow afternoon will be cooler than this afternoon with highs in the 50Fs and up to the lower 60Fs Central and South (where it will be a bit warmer yet still). North winds but not strong or gusty at all.

SATURDAY: Wind begins to swing around to the NE  on Saturday with a warm up toward highs similar to what today's highs will be, perhaps a few degrees warmer. The true warm up begins overnight Saturday night toward Sunrise Sunday as easterly winds will bring mid-upper 60Fs to the east coast toward sunrise Sunday Morning but coler still inland as winds decouple overnight away from the beaches (mainly locations west of US1 will be the coldest) but warmest air will be found east of A1A from Canaveral and south.

SUNDAY: Highs in the lower to mid-70Fs  with east wind around 8-12 mph, very pleasant.

MONDAY - THURSDAY: Very little temperature variations along the immediate beaches with round the clock 70Fs or close to it. I bit warmer inland during the day, but also cooler inland over night. Prevailing east winds at a deeper level of the atmosphere will commence to allow low topped stratocumulus clouds to advect on shore at any time, but wouldn't expect any showers except south of Brevard County along the east coast, and light ones at that. 

WHEN IS THE NEXT COLD FRONT?: Good question, none for seen within 7 days and beyond that we lose model credibility so won't even surmise. The Jet Stream has been digging south over the East half of the country for quite some time, and after tomorrow will begin to lift up and out to the east of the U.S., and a much broader disorganized 'split flow' is to develop. 

As such, much of the country north of the Mason - Dixon line will be warming up next week with the colder air in general well to the north other than across parts of the Rocky Mountain region.  

Images below are radar estimated rainfall totals from the past couple of days off the JAX and MLB radars. The highest reported unofficial total I could find was a location in Edgewater where a CoCoRAHS observers came in with 8.10".  As surmised in a previous post, the biggest totals appears would be from Port St. John and north, as so it was (based on GFS model continuity).

Rapid Clearing This Afternoon, Much Cooler through Friday

Storm Moves in on a Canaveral Marina Tuesday, Cape Canaveral Florida

TODAY: No change from previous post. At time, it is still raining lightly at this location but clearing is coming in a big way later today accompanied by drier and colder air. But before that time, the actual cold front is nearly knocking on the door. .. as can be seen below. The front will be crossing Brevard County as a reference point between 6:45 AM through around 7:30AM on the way to clear the state well before noon time with a rapid temperature drop by as much as 20F degrees over the first hour or so after  'fropa'...an abbreviated way of saying, 'frontal passage'. 

Clearing of the skies is a bit lagging, however, and some light rain to perhaps a drizzle like condition could well follow the front for several hours while the colder air advects in; therefore, do not anticipate the first half of the day to be very pleasant at all, but conditions will improve rapidly sky wise this afternoon for the most part from west to east.

From the NWS, Melbourne, FL LDIS Plots Web Page showing temperatures at 6AM

Infrared imagery shows the sharp clearing   anticipated
 in the previous post off to the west of the state at 5:45AM
The dashed line is a guess on about when that clear air will arrive, but low clouds linger until that time

THIS AFTERNOON: With clearing there might be a very brief warm up to the lower or 'maybe' a middle 60F, but it will be brief for as the sun sets so will the temperatures descend. Temperatures this afternoon will mostly be in the middle to upper 50Fs as winds blow from the NW at about 10-18mph, and could pick up more once the skies clear   and heating tries to mix in with the equation of cold air advection  from the NW. A secondary front will edge on by over Thanksgiving which will go by un-noticed but for the chance that the wind will back toward the WNW a bit before it goes through.

THANKSGIVING: Clear with lows in the middle 40F's (interior north), through upper 40Fs to near 50F at the beaches. NW-WNW wind around 10 mph picking up to 15-20 mph gusts in the afternoon for a time but rapidly dying off inland after dark. The wind might remain a bit elevated though east of the intracoastal due to mixing primarily from the cold air advection with the warm air above the waterways. Highs in the lower to mid-60s; warmest South Florida and South Central, with only lower 60Fs north of I-4 for the most part.

FRIDAY: Colder yet still in the morning as the second front will have cleared the area. Lighter wind though as day works on through with interior north lows in the lower 40Fs in some locations, more widespread mid 40Fs though to upper 40Fs near the beaches. NW wind around 10-15mph with highs in the mid 60Fs.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Both days are very similar as winds begin to swing around to the north and then northeast to ENE on Sunday. Both evenings all weekend the winds decouple inland overnight to near calm to 5 mph while at the coast they might remain up just a bit. Slight warming trend along the east coast overnight Saturday especially notable at the beaches by Sunday morning. Morning lows at the beaches could be in the lower to mid 60Fs with highs around the lower 70Fs with mostly clear to partly cloudy pancake stratocumulus clouds occurring here and there but no rain in sight (for quite a while).

MONDAY: Temperatures return to 'normal' round the clock from Monday through most of the rest of the week. It's quite some time before another cold front is being foreseen, and even rain chances are close to zero until around perhaps Saturday.

  Mini-Golf Anyone?

Larger Rainfall Totals / Narrow Strong Storm Corridor Both "Possible" Tuesday/Wednesday

Cape Canaveral Path Early Monday Morning

TODAY: Warm with near record highs possible. Vero Beach looks to have the best chance of tying or breaking a record as of noon time but the area down into West Palm Beach appears to be yet even warmer still with a current temperature of 87F and other upper 80Fs being shown 'down there'. Guidance shows dry today, but there is a model that has twice now shown the potential for a strong storm near to offshore the Ft. Pierce to West Palm region (perhaps forming off shore), and with another late day over Central Brevard though not as strong. At this time of writing  it is difficult to come upon exactly why this would be; however, it is worth noting.  

TONIGHT-TUESDAY: A frontal boundary now across the Western Panhandle will work south, and as it stands now will not make it as far south as 'Dead Central" or south of there as was mentioned yesterday. Instead it comes closer to wavering near the I-4 Corridor to North Brevard  at the surface, but into the lower to mid-atmospheric levels it is titled back to the north such that at 5000 feet the front is still back over the panhandle. Meanwhile, disturbances CURRENTLY emanating off the mountains of Mexico (see second image below) could ride along the frontal boundary to approach Central Florida as soon as 9AM Tuesday morning, but exactly where the front is laying at that time and the strength of said disturbances will hugely determine the degree of rainfall and where it will fall. 

The latest GFS (Global Forecast System forecast model) is fairly consistent run-to-run showing a swath of largest totals surpassing 2" over a 24 hour period from near a JAX to CEDAR KEY zone south to a line running from near PT. ST JOHN toward SARASOTA on the West Coast (with highest amounts last run over Volusia and Northern Brevard County close to 3", yet the NAM model shows nothing even close to said amounts).

This is of the classic TYPE of "Central Diving Line" or "Dead Central" set ups that might be evolving (as referred to in these posts) for a strong storm to form along the southern periphery of the heavier rainfall totals demarcation. As such will be aware that though upper level temperatures are not as cold as cold be, the best shearing winds near the surface will be right  along and near the southern boundary of heaviest cloud cover and/or rainfall, with the best instability  all south of it. As such, will watch the zone where the best wind shear meets the instability as  shown below  by the purple 'just in case zone'  of 'Dead Central" or 'The Central Dividing Line Zone" anytime from between 11:AM Tuesday through as late as 5:AM Wednesday morning (around the time the actual front actually comes through).

The reason for that latter time frame is that the latest GFS shows a very sharp wind shift line and temperature drop with the front (by as much as a 20F degree temperature fall across the boundary) which could make for a quick 'TOUCH AND GO" spin up like 'tornado in the dark' which are but impossible to forecast or foresee outside of near the time and said type of radar return pops up. Chances are no such creature will evolve though.

SPC (The Storm Predication Center) does have Central Florida in a 'marginal severe threat' on their web page though it is a larger swatch on their page. Would be aware that heavier rain fall and colder air could send outflow into the warmer moist air south of the front which could 'self-induce' a 'quick severe or strong storm' if guidance of GFS is correct

WEDNESDAY: Rainfall could last off and on as late as around 9-11AM Central even behind the front, but RAPID CLEARING commences with the wind shift so by noon-2pm most of Central would be scoured out by much drier and colder air. It is this clearing that might be the bigger story when all is said and done.

The front is forecast to make a rapid drop from Central Florida to clearing South Florida between 7AM and noon. If so, the warmest time of day will be right near to before sunrise. With clearing skies, recovery into the lower 60Fs is possible though it could also be quite breezy with winds from the WNW-NW at 18 G 28 for a time, especially by the early afternoon Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THANKSGIVING:  Sunset Thanksgiving eve yields clear or 'near clear' with temperatures in the mid-upper 50Fs with slowly dying off winds from the NW-NNW.

Thanksgiving dawns with lows in the mid-upper 40Fs inland and closer to 49F - 52F along the immediate east coast as winds become more northerly with time at about 10-18mph during the afternoon. (hopefully less!).

BEYOND through Weekend: Wind very slowly shifts around to northeast and eventually east-northeast by the end of the weekend at 10-15 mph, but dying off inland at night where winds will decouple and allow colder overnight lows over the interior zones. Dry but with continued 'below' normal high temperatures and near normal low temperatures. Highs warming to the lower-mid 70Fs by Monday but look to be in the upper 60Fs and lower 70Fs Saturday and Sunday. The next cold front could be another week away going into early December. 

Large Rainfall Totals Possible Late Tuesday/Wednesday

At 6AM A warm front is lifting north toward South Georgia (early this afternoon).
The boundary is marked mainly by increasing dewpoints in the 70Fs and winds becoming southeast to south southeast

TODAY: Very vigorously dynamic storm system in the wind fields department affecting all of the southeast for the next few days with multiple changes and variations overall across Florida . Wind today to become more SE-SSE by mid-afternoon with highs in the mid-upper 70Fs. Over the past 30 hours, the temperature at my location has only varied by about 2 degrees over the entire time due to strong onshore winds gusting to above 25 mph across tempered ocean waters. 

Little change from the last post though overall, with a chance of a shower or two, or even a thunderstorm later today mainly across parts of East Central north from Osceola to Brevard toward Ormond Beach.   Winds also will be decreasing later today, and could be a notable decrease at least for a short times as the warm front passes by any one location. Clearing skies as well, but not totally clear per se, but much improved skies from I-4 and south mostly as the morning wears on.

MONDAY: Wind becoming more SW and warmer with highs in the lower to mid 80Fs (South). Chance of showers actually looks pretty low except parts of North and North Central. A cold front will work its way into Central by Monday night though which will make for a chance of showers and some thunder.

TUESDAY: This is where it gets very sticky. The frontal boundary might get as far south as Lake Okeechobee or not quite that far south, but a mid level area of low pressure is forecast to form along the boundary across the Central to Southwest Gulf of Mexico and lift east and east northeast overnight into Wednesday. In doing so, the surface front could retrograde back north in the presence of a 100kt + jet streak across North Florida .and much stronger than normal winds below that as well down to 4000ft above the ground (from the southwest). The latest GFS showed tremendous amount of BULK Shear across Central and North Central with instability limited to the 'north-south dividing line' and south. This COULD set the stage for severe weather across Central Florida, but so far that has not been directly enough implied; however, larger rainfall totals have been during the time between late Tuesday afternoon through as late as mid-day Wednesday. Timing will still need to be refined in those regards, if they do in fact manifest at all.

Worse, it appears the front could slide south by Wednesday morning setting up a cold front with over running situation meaning moderate rain in the presence of  mid-50F degree temperatures. Overall, Wednesday is not looking like a pleasant day, at least not the first half of the day.

THANKSGIVING: Front clears state with lows in the low through upper 40Fs and highs in the lower to mid-60Fs, but skies do look almost entirely clear for this day.

WEEKEND TO COME: So far looks very mild, with cool but not cold temps, and no rain to be seen  

Big Warm up on Sunday!

Early Afternoon Visible Satellite Imagery and Notes Referring To Sunday to Come

TODAY :  Cloud cover looks like it could continue south of I-4 for much of the remainder of the day. Though some clearing is sinking southward there might still remain some higher clouds later to come with the lower sun angel that would create the illusion of no significant change overall with the lower sun angle after 4pm. Otherwise, continued quite cool with upper 50Fs to around 60F most areas and lower 60Fs further south. 

TONIGHT-THURSDAY : Thursday might compete with this morning in some areas with low temperatures but the 17F degrees reported in two official locations in the northern panhandle might be hard to beat and don't' suspect those readings will be eclipsed. Lighter wind tonight though and more clearing than last night might permit some areas inland to come down a few notches from this mornings lows across parts of Central except right at the immediate beach from Canaveral and south where a more northerly wind might allow temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than last night. Wind to become more north to north north east on Thursday but the warm up will only be minimal with highs in the mid 60Fs most areas.

FRIDAY :  Winds over night become more NNE-ENE which should keep the overnight lows much warmer at the beach-sides with highs closer to the lower 70Fs but perhaps a bit breezy, otherwise nothing much to speak of.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY  :  A very potent disturbance coming out of South Central Texas will swoop across the Deep South rapidly from Saturday through Monday toward the Mid-Atlantic states, but a cold front is not in toe with it. This system could set up for some strong storms and maybe some tornadoes near the Gulf Coast from Eastern Texas, Louisiana and even toward the Western Florida Panhandle going into early Sunday. Otherwise, return southerly flow over Florida will commence in earnest over night Saturday through Sunday. 

So far guidance is greatly varied as to when rain chances resume..anywhere from late Friday to early Sunday for eastern portions of South Florida to work north with time. The GFS is consistent on Sunday before sunrise for east central though, and this might need to be watched a bit closely as wind profiles do show some directional and speed shear..though suspect if anything beyond a rain shower were to occur it would remain out over the Gulf Stream.  Later in the day though east central is showing a chance for a thunderstorm (?) ...and even a strong one. If so, it would be a very odd anomaly but nonetheless it's impossible to ignore the wind profiles accompanied by the quick rebound in instability Sunday afternoon which the GFS (Global Forecast System model) is depicting.

MONDAY :  Very warm with highs in the lower to mid--80Fs (very close to Sunday's high temperatures) but it appears Monday will remain dry but for parts of North Florida.

TUESDAY  and .... : Not going to discuss this time frame just yet, though guidance is consistent with a cold front to be across Central 'sometime' Tuesday, but what affects and for how long those 'affects' will be in the area (namely rain/thunder chances) is too far out in time to bother noting for now.  

 .... BEYOND: Likewise, guidance bounces around on what is to occur by Thursday of next week (Thanksgiving) other than by then any cold front should have cleared the state, at least as it stands now. Likely will not post again concerning the weekend rain chances and beyond for another 48 hours or even 72 hours. Until then, expect the weekend over all to be very nice except the rain chances from south to north late Saturday into early Sunday, and maybe another chance late Sunday afternoon east Central. Warmest on Sunday though and again on Monday with 80Fs stoking the air waves once again. Phew!