"Weather Made Clear" / Weatherwise - May 3rd Inside a Tornado

Image: Photo of a book recently purchased through Amazon. I checked this book out from the Elementary School Library (Freedom 7) innumerable times while in grade school. Maybe not so ironically, the goal of this blog is to have "Weather Made Clear" (in understanding, not conditions).

UP-TICK STORY: "Getting Tubed" - due to lack of weather in recent days and days to come over Central and South Central Florida, some future posts will include both our local weather forecast (abbreviated) as well as a very exictedly documented account concerning the experience of being inside a tornado published in both Weatherwise magazine (many years ago) as well as the book "Weather Made Clear", pictured above. This account is very descriptive in nature, as witnessed on May 3, 1948 at McKinney, Texas. I have been granted permission from Weatherwise to include excerpts from the account, but not in full, as that is where the first print of the account was published prior to that which is in "Weather Made Clear". I think you will find this very exciting to say the least!

TODAY: Large cut off low pressure near Bermuda is slowly filling and moving east today. This system is responsible for the small craft advisories, rip tide warnings, and larg surf the past few days. Although the system will move out, oceanic related symptoms will linger through Tuesday. Overhead, a full latitudinal ridge of high pressure has been extending from the Yucatan Peninsula, across the Eastern Gulf, and northward to Eastern Canada the past few days. Anticyclonic flow around this high pressure has created northerly component winds across the state, and sharp pressure gradient winds between the high and that low well off to the ENE has generated the large ocean swells. Additionally, we've had the added benefit of a very dry atmosphere although a thin layer of enough moisture has been evident between 3-5,000 feet to generate patches of stratocumulus clouds from time to time. All will stay the same today and for the most part Monday as well.

TUESDAY: Both the ridge and low pressure area press further east as a very large trough pushes east across the nation's mid section. In response, surface winds veer more toward the SE-S by day's end. There is a slight chance of a coastal rain shower from Daytona and points south during this transition in the morning, but only very slightly so. Of benefit, will be the slightly warmer temperatures, especially over night Monday night through Wednesday night.

WEDNESDAY: Morning should dawn with rain shower over much of NW Florida and parts of North Central Florida with a warm morning low temperature elsewhere in the state, especially along the east coast as a cold front makes its panhandle entrance known. If it's going to rain anytime before Thanksgiving it will be Wednesday afternoon and evening...particularly north of a Melbourne - Tampa Bay line. I say 'before', because Thanksgiving day proper is still up for grabs.

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: Initially temperatures will be like they've been the past few days, but an eventually warm up will be quick to follow as the next frontal system approaches very close to the Thanksgiving Day time frame. We can get more exact on the 'when' as that time draws closer.

So, as you can see, no significant changes in temperature or rain chances seem to be on the horizon for the next week other than a better rain chance on Wednesday and a return to slightly lower temperatures shortly thereafter, but those chances completely diminish by late in the week. We will moderate over the weekend with a return to weak, onshore flow (winds) and more benign weather other than patches of clouds and maybe a cloud sprinkle.

Will the Discovery Launch Remain on "Go" ? Hurricane Tomas

(Images show location of the cold front at 6am based on surface wind shift; also shown is a colorized depiction of cold air intrusion from the NNW and jet stream level wind forecast wind for 2pm today)

TODAY: No surprises in store for Florida through Saturday. The cold front passed through most central, Central Florida around 4AM and is in progress of clearing Miami-Dade as I write. There were some clouds behind the front, but they have since cleared the area as noted by looking outside as the first glimpses of Friday morning are now visible. Drier air at all atmospheric levels will continue to infiltrate from the NW-NNW, courtesy of Canada, ahead of a large dome of high pressure now over the Central Plains and behind the departing low-mid level trough now passing off the U.S. East Coast.

At this time, Shuttle Launch is a "Go". Very cool and breezy weather conditions will rule the roost today under full sunshine, not unlike a typical January day after a generic cold frontal passage. Surface winds are strongest over the intracoastal where cold air is passing over and mixing with the warmer air just above the warm waters of the Banana and Indian Rivers which then cross the barrier islands.

I believe this 'wind situation' will be further aggravated after prolonged, full insolation by early afternoon is realized ...as such, it will continue to be windy today. But will it be too windy for a launch? Apparently, that is not the line of thinking from the powers to be since launch is currently a "Go". It may be because these are not direct cross winds across the landing strip should a mission abort be required. I am personally concerned about the wind at 30,000 ft (jet stream level) being in the 100-125kt range from the SW (if direction matters that high aloft), as shown in the included forecast image for 2pm this afternoon. This has been a given in the forecast though for a day or two now, so apparently that is (nor has been) of no concern or factor in launch criteria. It's the surface wind speed and direction that are of factor should they need to abort back to KSC.

What will be the strength of the surface winds during the early afternoon hours once the affects of full insolation (heating with no blocking of sunshine due to clouds) is amassed. Mixing of mid-level winds to the surface could result in gusts in the 26mph range, at least...but it's going to come down to the final hour I fear.

And one more thing to consider, who says there won't be another 'technical difficulty'? These always seem to come up suspiciously. We'll see.

TONIGHT: Shiver my timbers...Brrrracious. Not turning the heat on, but the A/C is definitely out. Some might like open windows with a blanket for that matter, but I'd prefer to hold on to the last vestiges of summer as long as possible. Lows along the coast in the upper 40s do not seem unreasonable, colder inland of course and toward the west side of the state all the way down to Naples.

SATURDAY: Coldest day of this 'outbreak' (tongue in cheek). High temperature will flirt with 70 from the Cape and points south, more likely south of Vero. But keep in mind, given the lower sun angle at this time of year and the state of continued cold air advection at hand, the high temperature that will be recorded tomorrow won't be an all afternoon event. In reality, the high temperature for any one locale will only be sustained for less than an hour. For example, should the high temperature in Melbourne be 70F, that might be reached at 2:25pm and last for 10 minutes, whereas the official observation at 2pm could be 68F and then 67F the hour after. Best bet is to expect temperatures for the most part in the mid-60s when push comes to shove, with a rapid fall in the 5-6pm time frame.

SUNDAY: Already things get sticky for the intracoastal communities and south of Vero Beach along A1A. Believe it will be overnight that surface winds will veer more toward the N-NNE, which is essentially an onshore component that hugs the coast. That said, expect a tremendous temperature gradient (difference) between morning low temperatures felt in those areas from that which will be experienced to the west...by as much as 10-15F degrees.

By late morning to noon temperatures will definitely be on the moderating trend and the dry air at lowest levels will be quickly modified by the much warmer air residing just above Atlantic waters. This will be initially beneficial, but as time passes and moisture levels increases....marine stratocumulus clouds could be advected on shore from the Cape south to Miami. In fact, the latest NAM introduces low end showers from West Palm south by day's end, which eventually work further north to the Cape overnight toward Monday morning.

MONDAY: In staying with persistence in regards to yesterday's line of thinking, Monday morning will be pleasantly comfortable east of I95, and expect to see patches of stratocumulus clouds. Now, if the NAM is to verify, there is a good chance of rain over east Brevard county on this day. I believe it is over done though, for a variety of reasons...one (of many) will be alluded to under the "TROPICS". The GFS has indicated the lightest of possible rainfall that it can depict for the entire east coast south of Daytona for a number of days now beginning Monday, but it will probably just be some clouds making their presence known east of the state's spine.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Continued air mass modification as winds become more easterly and gradually abate. Lows in the mid-upper 60s and highs in the 80 degree range all locales. There will continue to be the ever-present possiblity of coastal sprinkles, but as noted yesterday, if they don't materialize by Monday evening they probably never will.

TROPICS: Hurricane Tomas approaching the passage between East Cuba and West Haiti as it intensifies. Rains are now impacting Haiti, and much more is to come. Tomas is forecast to make a passage just to the west of Haiti, but the worst of the storm will be over land. Some models actually intensify the storm while it is on its closest pass (assuming it doesn't move directly overhead). Winds wouldn't normally be too much a concern at it's current strength as far as wide spread devastation goes, but considering the structures in which earthquake survives reside in...anything above a moderate tropical storm is far from a 'sneeze'. Thus, winds and more so flash flooding and mudslides are chief concern beginning this afternoon and through all of Saturday and Sunday (at least).

Tomas's future? All of the models are assuming that the storm will continue to pass beyond Haiti and eastern Cuba on a general northward trek initially. But this does not put them out of the woods. Rains will continue to be pulled northward and across the land in a trailing moisture feed fashion. So, just exactly when all is said and done, in my mind, remains yet to be seen.

Now, as mentioned earlier above, what about the NAM? The 00z run was most disturbing. It showed that the storm would not be picked up by the trough now passing Florida and heading toward the Bahamas. As such, Tomas lingers south of Haiti for 84 hours at least. But keep in mind, this is the only model I saw that makes such a suggestion. It was also the only model that showed downright rain for East Brevard County on Monday as well.

Since the hurricane season began this year, I've noticed a continued tread for it to be overly aggressive from multiple angels of perspective. Whether this has always been the case or not, I cannot say that I've ever made such an observation, so perhaps this is something new to the model or purely enlightenment. Knowledge gained, more to attain.

Windy, Cold Blast Is On the Heels of Clouds/Showers

Images: Enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows the upper level low over the Northern Gulf and moisture plume from the SSW across Florida generating low/mid level clouds and showers. Tropical Storm Tomas is located just off to the bottom right of this image. Other image depicts a forecast for systems at 4pm this afternoon.

SYNOPSIS: Mid-Upper level low in the Northern Gulf is beginning to open up as it phases with a larger low pressure system located near Hudson Bay within the larger trough extending down the U.S. Eastern seaboard, mid-Atlantic, and NE states. Warm front extends across N. Florida where it had its passage through Central Florida Tuesday. Humongous region of high pressure embraces the western 2/3 of the country with strong northerly flow enhanced along its leading edge and behind the low pressure trough to its east. Cold front out-lines the leading edge of the cold air invasion approaching Florida as noted in the included image and as annotated currently. Front and trough postions are annotated for the generally speaking outllook at 4pm this Thursday afternoon.

TODAY: Shuttle Launch for today cancelled. No surprise there. Extensive cloudiness will be the rule of the day. The shield of overall largest rain coverage passed across the peninsula during the wee morning hours toward sunrise, and now seems to have shifted east as the low pressure areas aloft begin to merge NNE of Florida. However, as you can see, there is still at least one and maybe two pre-frontal troughs on the approach preceding the actual cold front. Deep layer moisture being advected north from near the Yucatan (SW Caribbean) will continue to stream across the state today, and as such, clouds will be the rule with some embedded light to moderate showers. With the cloud coverage, afternoon high temperatures will be held at bay in the upper 70s with SSW-SW winds.

Just exactly how much interaction between the pre-frontal troughs and heating of the day with the Florida peninsula is yet to be seen considering this early morning hour at time of writing as well as the expected cloud coverage limiting thermal instability, but don't expect a tremendous amount of regeneration until mid-late in the afternoon at which time both 500mb and 850mb energy (vorticity) is forecast by the 06Z GFS model run to pass over head preceding and during cold frontal passage (which will be over night).

All things considered, believe that clouds will be the rule with embedded areas of light to moderate rainfall patches which can occur anywhere/anytime across the state. Winds aloft will become quite strong throughout the day but remain light in comparison at the surface and will be unidirectional (from the same direction) with altitude. As such, although lack of directional shear will preclude development of rotation within any given storm structure, speed sheer will provide the ascent within the very moist envelope to enable continued cloud and shower recycling. Additional low level convergence in advance of pre-frontal trough(s) will give the added boost required for great precipitation coverage as well as intensity but timing of such features is highly questionnable if indeed they even manifest as forecast by some of the models. The time for the greatest chances of both heavier rains and coverage appears to be between 3-8pm this afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT: Cold front now appears as though it will clear all of Central Florida by 2-3AM and the entire state shortly after sunrise Friday. Skies will clear noticeably within the first 3 hours after FROPA (frontal passage) as temperatures being to drop. It is possible that the warmest time of the day Friday will be whenever you get out of bed in the morning, thus a sweater or jacket is highly recommended to be in arm on the way out the door and on the way to work, because by late in the afternoon the sky will have cleared and gusty, very cool/cold NW winds will be 'a-blowin' in full cold air advection mode straight out of Canada. It's a little early for the snow birds, but keep your eyes open as we might spot a flock pass over head.

FRIDAY: Day will break clear, crisp, windy, and cold by all standard for this time of year. We won't have felt temperatures like this state wide since early spring. Cold air advection from the broad expanse of high pressure passing across the country's Plain states will penetrate south of the Florida Keys with no problem whatsoever. High temperatures could top out in the upper 60s to low 70s but the winds will make it feel cooler, particularly in shady spots.

Shuttle launch? It's going to be another touch-n-go situation. My fears are that given the time it is supposed to go that the winds will be at their worst due to the fact that mid afternoon will be the peak time for the cold air aloft to mix down to the surface under sunny skies (and full insolation), thus transporting the stronger winds downward from their point of origin which will be aloft. Winds will die down by late evening several hours after sunset but not become calm.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: Pretty darned cold. Not extreme by any means, but we'll definitely know it. Saturday will be the best day for the afternoon launch if it won't have gone on Friday. Winds will die down some although not entirely but temperatures (although not a launch criteria factor for this event) will be very cool all day. Additionally, the clear skies will be optimal.

SUNDAY: Rebound! Mostly for the immediate east coast initially east of I-95 up and down the entire Florida East Coast. Surface and mid-level winds to veer more toward the NNE-NE as the core of high pressure approaches the mid-Atlantic coast.

Problem. Being as this is the first cold air invasion of the season the ocean temperatures in the Western Atlantic are still very warm in comparison. The core of the coldest air, having now passed east of the state, will pass over the warm waters and generate low level clouds which could be advected onshore up and down the coast by mid-late afternoon by the veering winds. Contingent upon the depth and extent of cloud coverage, we might start to feel a barely detectable sprinkle hither and yon, but for the most part this won't be a problem late Sunday.

MONDAY: Large temperature gradient from the coast east of US1 to the more inland locales. A much warmer morning in store for the coast with lows in the low-mid 60s, whereas the inland portions as well as the Florida west coast will be in the 40s and 50s from Naples to Tallahassee. Additionally, and assuming the clouds move in along the east coast as feared, the overnight low temperature along the east coast will be moderated by both the wind blowing off the warm Atlantic waters as well as the thermal blanket provided by the cloud coverage reducing the impact from any potential radiational cooling. Sprinkles do appear a possibility as well, east of I-95.

TUESDAY-NEXT THURSDAY: Not much change through the week other than temperatures state wide from coast to coast will be moderating. We'll still have to see what happens with the stratocumulus cloud decks which if they haven't developed by now, probably never will.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Tomas is beginning to curve more northerly and has its eyes somewhere between extreme Eastern Cuba and Haiti. I do not believe this storm will regain hurricane status, but if it does it will be a low end Category 1. The main concern is that it appears likely the central circulation will pass just west of, or right over, the west side of Haiti. This is a bad thing, seeing as how the greatest moisture influx will be on the right side of the storm. Rains will fall over Haiti well before the storm center makes its closest pass, and persist well after the circulation has moved on as deep layer moisture continues to be drawn northward and across the mountainous, rugged terrain which peaks around 8700 ft. Deep moisture loves steep rugged terrain , as such features act as a lifting mechanism , let alone the lifting mechanism provided by the storm itself. In other words, big rains spell out "landslides and flash flooding" for the tent metropolis for a region already plagued by the devastating January earthquake as well as four other tropical systems during the past ten years of high consequence. Enough is enough!

Glimpses of January to Arrive in the Heels of Rains/Storms

(Images: Latest RUC depiction (and surface observations) reveal a weak surface low over land, with a stronger one developing in the Gulf south of Louisiana; Water vapor shows the supporting upper level system over Southeast Texas; and, forecast for 2pm Thursday shows pre-frontal trough and cold front affecting Florida).

SYNOPSIS: Low pressure is developing over the North/Central Gulf early this Wednesday morning, while a much stronger low prevails way North in Canada. These two systems will phase during the course of the next 24-36 hours as they both move east. Over Florida, the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) forecast and surface observations reveal a weak inverted trough along the Florida East Coast this morning, under/near which winds are essentially calm with muggy air conditions. The warmest temperatures are along the A1A corridor where temperatures in the low 70s are found. In deed, Cocoa was 62F/Melbourne 64F degrees last hour whereas my porch reads 71F. To put things in perspective, we haven't seen a temperature as low as 62F yet this season along A1A, but such readings have already been common place west of US1.

TODAY: Winds in the mid-upper levels will begin to respond to the presence of the low pressure complex over the Deep South as it approaches from the west and as such, winds aloft will begin to strengthen from the SW at all levels except near ground level where they will remain from the SE to eventually S late in the day toward evening. The depth of moisture availability through the atmospheric column will increase today providing the potential for rainshowers at any time with increased cloud coverage, especially with heating of the day. There is no triggering mechanism in place to pass overhead, so afternoon showers will be generated due to convergence boundaries along the sea breeze. Best chance for any showers along the immediate coast will likely be very late morning to early afternoon today - - shifting inland by afternoon much like yesterday.

TONIGHT: Warm evening in store with increasing clouds and showers remaining a possibility.

THURSDAY: The once again delayed launch of the Shuttle will likely be delayed further, if not definitely.

As has been depicted for 36 hours now, the cold front will be preceded by a pre-frontal trough. The trough will cross the peninsula during the afternoon Thursday between 12pm - 7pm from west to east. Due to the lack of instability along/ahead of this feature, a unidirectional wind profile aloft, and lack of low level forcing without the presence of strong surface winds than otherwise could occur in other similar set ups, the possibility of severe weather appears to be remote. Therefore, would not expect to see a Severe Thunderstorm Watch box being issued for the state; however, due to strong winds aloft during Thursday afternoon and along and behind the pre-frontal trough, there could be some locally near severe level wind gusts in any strong thunderstorm that can develop. Should these occur, the most likely location would be from North Central to South Central Florida from coast to coast between the hours of 12pm (on the west coast first) to 6pm (on the east coast) along the pre-frontal surface trough in the 'whited-out' area of the included image above.

The actual cold front lags a good 6 hours behind this boundary. Once any potential threat of thunderstorms passes, the potential continues for rain until shortly after the actual cold front passes. So one all is said and done, the best chance for rain on Thursday appears to begin after 1pm on the east side of the state with the strongest storms from 2pm -7pm, followed by areas of light to moderate rain through the overnight hours.

FRIDAY: The cold front proper will be overhead if not already having cleared all of North and Central Florida at sunrise. Cloudy skies, light rain, and an abrupt wind shift to the NW-NNW will accompany the front. Temperatures will drop noticeably within an hour or two after passage but level off for the remainder of the day somewhere in the mid-70s. Skies could remain mostly cloudy for several hours after FROPA (frontal passage), if not for most of the day. Refinement on the timing of persistent cloud cover will need to be made contingent upon how well things come together over night tonight and early Thursday.

SATURDAY: "Brisk Winds and Fair" (as our old barometer used to read after a cold front). And quite cool to downright cold to boot. Looking for morning lows inland to be in the mid-upper 40s over all but extreme East Central (namely the intracoastal communities) where lows should be in the low-mid 50s. Skies to be near clear with an afternoon high in the low 70s. This will be like a normal January day. Winds to begin to relax a bit over the late night. As one would expect, the coldest of air will be located over the Panhandle where some temperatures in the 30s might be found.

SUNDAY: Winds becoming more northerly and decreasing with another relatively cold morning accompanied by clear skies. Nice morning to wear your Sunday Best that's been stored away for 7 months. Winds to gradually shift to NNE by late in the day.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Moderating overnight/early morning temperatures east of US1 as an onshore component wind direction becomes established. However, as we work toward Tuesday or Wednesday especially, the remaining cold air now having pushed east will be riding over warm ocean Atlantic water and generate stratocumulus clouds which will be advected on shore up and down the entire Florida East coast. These cloud should remain east of the spine of the state and more likely thin considerably once one works west of I-95 over Central and North Florida, but approach the Big Lake along and south of its eastern shores. Maybe a spit of light rain will accompany the clouds periodically of non-significant nature. Afternoon high temperatures, should these cloud indeed develop to the level I fear, will be held at bay in the mid-upper 70s due to lack of full, mid-fall sunshine.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Tomas has been downgraded to depression status as it moves slowly west through the Southern Caribbean. It is somewhat perplexing as to why the system has been weakening since shear is not all that strong and water temperatures are still warm in that region. The same storm system that will clear Florida overnight Thursday and Friday will pick up what will either once again be Tropical Storm or Hurricane Tomas and lift it off to the NNE-NE by late in the weekend into early next week. Regardless of the storms wind strength, it is the rainfall this system will be remembered by for the folks in Haiti, The Dominican Republic, and perhaps Eastern Cuba.

Of greatest concern is over Haiti where over the past ten years they have been heavily directly affected by 4 tropical systems and of course this year's Earthquake in January. The mountainous terrain over Haiti peaks at over 8000 ft upon de-forested soils, leaving water runoff a major issue should heavy and persistent rainfall occur there. And, as it now appears, that rainfall potential looks to be looming as a coming reality by late in the weekend. The eventual track of this tropical system is problemmatic as well. Seeing as how the system is already so far south, the trough passing to the north may have a hard time carrying the storm away entirely, so even if the central circulation passes to the north, moisture/rains could lag behind over the land areas already outlined for an extended period. Therefore, flooding will be the big issue for the tent metropolis.

Election Day & STS-133/Discovery Launch Weather, Drought

(Images: Surface moisture flux divergence max shown at the Cape; My Canaveral precipitation October calendar)

SYNOPSIS: Weak warm frontal type boundary taking shape from near Tampa to Cape Canaveral early this Election Day morning across the sunshine state. Relatively large mid-upper low pressure system is becoming more organized near the E and SE Texas Gulf Coast as another system approaches extreme northern portions of the Plains across Montana and into N. Dakota.

SYNOPSIS FORECAST: Mid-upper level low pressure over East and SE Texas continues to develop and sink south to SSE into the Northern Gulf of Mexico as northern trough continues east and deepens as it enters the Great Lakes and Northern Ohio Valley. These two systems will eventually merge as the southern low pressure system opens up. They will move progressively east in tandem and exit the U.S. East Coast Friday. High pressure over South Central Florida in the mid level will shift east of the state later today and into Wednesday.

LOCALLY: Isentropic lift along a weak warm frontal boundary over Central Florida is generating clouds and some spotty showers. As of 7am, the most significant areas of rain were over/near both the west and east coass and along the warm front where meager CAPE values and Lapse Rates are also being maximized. So far two rain showers have passed directly over Cape Canaveral in the small blue patch shown in the attached image where surface moisture flux is the greatest and where the front resided at the time depicted (6AM).

ELECTION DAY WEATHER: Expect the warm front to make slow-n-steady progress northward and toward the Panhandle by late afternoon. Believe the greatest chance of showers will remain along the front, however south of the boundary (over the peninsula) and in the 'warm sector' ample low-mid level moisture will reside for periods of somewhat abundant cloud coverage and spotty showers. Thus, a spotty shower is not out of the question anytime / any where, although they should be more likely inland over North Central Florida once the East Coast sea breeze sets in. Continued pleasantly warm. Overall, it should be a nice day though.

TONIGHT/LAUNCH DAY: Low pressure near the Texas Southeast Coast will deepen and being to move east while Florida remains in a muggy, warm air mass. Instability over the state will be somewhat limited; however, with increasing moisture being advected over the the state in advance of the approaching low pressure system, clouds could prove to be a problematic reality as may rain showers over or near the launch pad. At this time, it actually looks like the best weather tomorrow could be before the launch window with favorable launch conditions becoming more likely to become unfavorable during and more so, after, the launch window as we work into the post-sunset hours. It's going to be another one of "those" touch-n-go situations as it looks now. It'll all be in the details when push comes to shove, but would hate to have made a long trip to Florida to see this launch if time constraints are an issue. At the moment though, they are giving the launch a 70 percent chance of a go, but I have a feeling that number might go down to 50/50 later today.

THURSDAY: Best chance that the Severe Drought Conditions over portions of Central and North Florida will get a small reprieve from further short-term damage. In other words, it looks like a darned good chance that many areas could receive rain. The amount, if any, of thunder included is a topic of whimsical debate amongst forecast offices...but for now...it looks to be a reality in my mind. Wind fields and instability levels do not look very conducive for generation of severe weather at this time, but thereare hints of such desires craving to be met particularly across North and Central Florida late Thursday into very early Friday (post midnight). Looks like the best chance if we are to get a thunderstorm will be over night Thursday into Friday.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Shiver my Timbers!, darned it. Cold front should be lying across Central Florida at sunrise, Friday while on a SE -S trek down the remaining peninsula during the course of the day. Winds will pick up from the NW-NNW, ushering in drier and much cooler air throughout the day. Our temperature on Friday will vary little from that from which it will be at sunrise due to cold air advection during the course of peak heating/maximum sun angle. Contingent upon the remaining cloud cover, good insolation combined with cold air advection from the north could result in some very breezy conditions in open locales during the mid-afternoon hours.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Coldest days since early spring for everyone in general! Details / refinement on the 'wheres' are being reserved for future posts. But for now, it appears a typical drainage type, north flow set up, will be in place by Sunday or perhaps Monday morning. This leaves the A1A corridor from the Cape to Miami the warmest spot in the state, with the coldest air being reserved for the spine of the state to as far south as the Kendal area west of Miami, extending from near Okeechobee to Punta Gorda/Naples on the west coast, and of course all of North Florida from coast to coast. Would not be surprised to see, in general, lows in the upper 40s in the coldest locales Sunday morning with mid-50s at the coast. Highs will be only in the low to mid-70s. But again, we can investigate these numbers with greater precision come that time frame.

DROUGHT SUMMARY (data courtesy of the Melbourne, FL NWS):

THE COLD FRONTS THAT PASSED THROUGH DURING OCTOBER PROVIDED

LITTLE...IF ANY MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA. SOME OF THE
LOCALLY HEAVIER ONE DAY TOTALS SUCH AS 1.54 INCHES AT STUART (STRF1)
ON THE 25TH WERE MORE A RESULT OF CONVERGENT SHOWER BANDS MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WAS RECORD SETTING FOR MANY LOCATIONS:

-ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAD THE DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD WITH
NO RAINFALL (0.00 INCHES) REPORTED. SO FAR SINCE THE END OF OCTOBER
THERE HAVE BEEN 33 STRAIGHT DAYS WHERE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS NOT
BEEN OBSERVED. THIS IS THE 4TH LONGEST RAIN-FREE PERIOD ON RECORD
FOR THIS SITE...WHICH TIES ANOTHER 33 DRY DAY PERIOD BACK IN 1990
THAT LASTED THROUGH JANUARY 25TH.

-MELBOURNE HAD THE DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD WITH ONLY A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. AS OF THE END OF OCTOBER...MELBOURNE HAS TIED FOR THE 6TH
LONGEST STRING OF DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL...CURRENTLY AT 32
DAYS. THE LAST 32 DRY DAY SPELL WAS SET IN 1956 WHICH LASTED THROUGH
DECEMBER 28TH.

-VERO BEACH ALSO HAD THE DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD WITH 0.01 INCHES.
THIS 0.01 INCHES OCCURRED ON THE 14TH WHICH ENDED A 14 DAY RAIN-FREE
STREAK. HOWEVER SINCE THE 14TH...NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN
AT VERO BEACH. THIS HAS LEAD TO ANOTHER 17 DAYS WHERE RAINFALL HAS
NOT EXCEEDED TRACE AMOUNTS.

-DAYTONA BEACH HAD THE SECOND DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD WITH ONLY
0.18 INCHES. THEIR 26 DAY RAIN-FREE STREAK ENDED ON THE 25TH WHEN
0.01 INCHES WAS OBSERVED.

TOP 5 DRIEST OCTOBER RANKINGS (IN INCHES):

DAYTONA          ORLANDO       MELBOURNE     VERO BEACH
1. 0.04  1940   1. 0.00  2010  1. TRACE 2010  1. 0.01  2010
2. 0.18  2010   2. 0.35  1967  2. 0.39  1984  2. 0.48  2009
3. 0.19  1967   3. 0.43  1979  3. 0.62  1976  3. 0.75  1962
4. 0.93  2000   4. 0.46  1963  4. 0.67  1940  4. 0.77  2003
5. 0.97  1960   5. 0.48  1974  5. 0.69  1979  5. 0.98  2006

TOP 6 LONGEST PERIODS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL (NUMBER OF DAYS
AND PERIOD END DATE):

   DAYTONA                         ORLANDO
1. 58  05/04/1967               1. 37  05/12/1971
2. 47  12/02/1967               2. 36  05/18/1979
3. 39  01/03/1934               3. 35  12/07/1967
4. 36  12/31/1932               4. 33  10/31/2010, 01/25/1990
5. 35  01/11/1929               5. 32  06/10/2000, 05/28/1965...
6. 34  04/12/1978               6. 30  02/21/1989

  MELBOURNE                       VERO BEACH
1. 46  01/03/1969               1. 41  05/24/1970
2. 38  12/10/1967, 03/13/1961   2. 32  02/04/2003, 01/29/1960
3. 37  05/12/1971               3. 31  12/09/1995
4. 34  12/27/1961               4. 29  03/11/1951
5. 33  05/07/1986, 03/15/1956   5. 28  12/06/1942
6. 32  10/31/2010, 12/28/1956   6. 27  05/23/1967, 03/15/1962...

BELOW IS A LIST OF OBSERVED PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND RAINFALL
STATISTICS FOR SELECT SITES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR OCTOBER
2010:

STATION           OCT 2010      30 YEAR   DEPARTURE     PERCENT OF
               RAINFALL      NORMAL    FROM NORMAL     NORMAL

DAYTONA BEACH      0.18"         4.37"      -4.19"           4%
(DAB)
ORLANDO            0.00"         2.66"      -2.66"           0%
(MCO)
MELBOURNE          TRACE         4.76"      -4.76"           0%
(MLB)
VERO BEACH         0.01"         5.04"      -5.03"         0.2%
(VRB)
CLERMONT           0.34"         2.40"      -2.06"          14%
(CLRF1)
DELAND             0.14"         4.09"      -3.95"           3%
(DELF1)
SANFORD            0.00"         3.56"      -3.56"           0%
(SFNF1)
TITUSVILLE         0.17"         4.29"      -4.12"           4%
(TITF1)
FORT PIERCE        0.32"         5.82"      -5.50"           6%
(FPCF1)
STUART             1.87"         6.29"      -4.42"          30%
(STRF1)
CAPE CANAVERAL     0.29" (unofficially from my backyard)

FOR MORE LOCAL CLIMATE INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MELBOURNE AND CLICK ON THE "LOCAL" LINK UNDER THE
CLIMATE SUBSECTION ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE.  

Satan Claws Is Comin' To Town!

As a Halloween Treat, the following video has been included today. The YouTube Description posted for your information is contained in the credits below. Play the video while reading. SCARY GOOD! But Refer to the on-line blog to hear and view this video if reading from an email delivery at:

HIGH SPEED DIRT

TODAY: Scarily sunny today with threatening blue skies and light easterly winds. But beware, various ghosts, goblins, and witches will be soaring overhead Cocoa Beach during what they are calling an Air Show put on by the USAF Thunderbirds. Don't be fooled. There are SPOOKS here to scare away the rain we so desperately need in closing the month with only 0.04" measurable precipitation at Melbourne this month.

TOMORROW-Tuesday: Not much different with warmer temperatures both night and day and still no rain. Flat out CREEPY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Dr. Doom may be a-knockn't, so beware. A mid-upper level trough will develop in the Western Gulf of Mexico, ushering deeper atmospheric moisture across the peninsula in advance of a cold front. Best chance of rain now appears to by Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Hope we survive.

FRIDAY-BEYOND: Lots of changes coming in 3-5 day spurts of possible storms as we work into November, but predominantly seasonable. More to come on what could be an interesting scenario to unfold.

TROPICS: Hurricane Tomas. It does not look as though Tomas will impact Florida. Per the latest model runs I saw the storm could eventually impact anywhere from as far west of its current location toward Jamaica and into Haiti, or curve much sooner to impact Puerto Rico. But the greatest consensus has been Haiti, just what they don't need.

I've intentionally left out the finer forecast details today due to impending nigthfall, but will presume normal posts in the week ahead. Close the curtains, lock the doors, and get under the sheets, cause...Satan Claus is Comin' To Town under cover in a thin veil of perfect weather tonight to abduct all the unsuspecting Trick or Treaters.

==================================================================

CREDITS/VIDEO DESCRIPTION as authored:

"http://www.humpdayhaha.blogspot.com/ (go there for a laugh or two) I make these audio and video loops and have them available about two weeks before Halloween at the url in the videohttp://www.scarysoundfx.com/ This five minute sampler is based on my horror movie "Scarehouse", which is 10 minutes long and available on YouTube, upon request.

This sampler is from a 30 minute loop of creepy sounds and images and is now available for download . There is also a 40 minute loop of just sound FX available for Halloween uses. All the sounds were recorded in Toronto, Canada in 2001 and made into creepy stuff.

I don't want to give away my secrets, but listen for my GUT SOUNDS at 2:20. The first half of the images are directly from Scarehouse and the rest of the moving stills are from various sources"

Ohhh NOOOo...Air Show Weather and MORE!

(Image: Mr. Bill has the right idea, as was captured in the famous painting "The Scream". He was well known in small circles before his popularity emerged on SNL)

SYNOPSIS: Cold front passed over all of Florida on Friday and is now located well south of the state. High pressure quickly built across the peninsula in its wake and now encompasses all of the SE states. It appears to be centered over a broad area from N. Alabama east into W. North Carolina where areas of morning lows in the upper 30s are noted. Crestview, Florida is coming in at 38F, whereas Melbourne is almost a full 40 degrees warmer at 77F.

Elsewhere, a very large low pressure system approaches the Pacific NW as another system across the Northern Plains becomes organized during the course of the next 24-48 hours.

TODAY: All of east central Florida will experience the affects of a slowly modifying air mass today as surface winds behind the aforementioned cold front have already swung around to the NE-ENE. These winds are escorting low level stratocumulus clouds to the coast prior to day break, and expect more of the same today as winds become a bit more easterly this afternoon. Any moisture in the atmospheric profile this afternoon will be limited to the lowest levels, but be provisional enough to perpetuate the potential for additional clouds this afternoon. Rainfall wise, the NAM model is showing showers this afternoon, but believe that given the shallow overall depth of moisture within the column will preclude anything behind a drop or two falling from aloft.

USAF THUNDERBIRD AIR SHOW (COCOA BEACH): Today and Sunday - Very pleasant temperatures and a nice breeze. Nothing to complain about in terms of the comfort zone; however, what about Air Show viewing?! Very touch and go. There will be breaks in the clouds, and I'll bet the breaks in the clouds will be favored as a rule although it could get iffy at times. No problem for ground displays though as far as rain is concerned. It'll all be in the timing, which could be aggravating for those that run the mill in having to anticipate any unforeseen cloud patches on an hourly basis for the schedule air show evenets. In other words, no guarantees for any one particular display. Best bet though, bet there (if one so opts), or be square.

Coastal temperature this afternoon in the low 80s.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: Well, so much for a Monday launch forecast. Last I looked STS-133 has been delayed 24 hours due to some functional technicalities of minor infraction. As such, do believe it will be a go on Tuesday. Have to say though, one wonders if perhaps a little politicking is involved to sway Air Show watchers to stay another today and thus contribute to the financial money pot of local merchants and related accommodations.

But what about the weather for the launch by then? I've head it said that 'six is one half dozen of the other'. My gut says if there's going to be any issues, they will be due to some clouds. Have to see if what comes around, goes around on Tuesday. Maybe Mother Nature will get the last laugh by having prime weather on Monday, only to have yet clouds on Tuesday thus causing further flight delays.

TROPICS: Not going into too much elaboration yet as far as Tropical Storm Tomas or now Hurricane Shary is concerned. Here's some latest information and a few thoughts.

As of 5Am Tomas was located approximately 70 NM east of St. Vincent, moving WNW at 15 mph. Satellite interpretation over night shows continuing organization, and I bet we'll have a hurricane if not in the next tropical update, the one after that. Tomas is being steered by both the high pressure that is affecting our weather locally over Florida as it merges with another area further east into the SW Atlantic Ocean. These merging forces will be ticket for Tomas to continue its trek through the SW Caribbean through Wednesday as it now appears. Tomas is expect to strengthen to a least at Cat-3 storm. Just exactly when / where that will occur is very difficult to ascertain, as is the nature of intensity forecasting.

Will Tomas impact Florida directly? At this point the answer is no. But there is some cause for hair twisting and navel picking (be that one's favored mode of operandi (?)). Point is, the huge low pressure area now approaching the Pacific NW is expected to combine with another low which will form in association with the system just now getting it's act together over the Northern Plains. In fact, and in somewhat unusual fashion, a mid-upper level level pressure system my form close to the SE coast of Texas by mid-week. This is what the models are foreseeing. Just exactly how far south and east this all occurs will be the clincher for Tomas's future track. As it stands now, Tomas will bet picked up by this yet to develop situation and consequently be transported off the NE after making a close, if not direct, pass at Jamaica.

I have noted that initially the GFS model formed this low much further east though...and in subsequent runs as shifted it further west and south. Much more time to see what transpires in the meantime, but at this point I'll leave it to say that it would be unwise to target any particular models' resolution for the eventual turn of events being extrapolated. Definitely a watcher for Cuba, Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and Souther Bahamas though at this point.

Hurricane Shary, in the meantime, has already made its closest passing threat to Bermuda and is rapidly exiting stage left. Within 48 hours Shary will be post-extratropical and pose no threat other than to fishing lanes, hence it will remain a "Fish Storm".

RECORD: In lieu of typing out a dissertation about the record monthly dry spell at hand, I've just noticed that the NWS Melbourne, FL has already beat me to the punch. Therefore, I'm just going to copy and paste their nicely terse summarization. But note, these are for extended dry spells. The record has been broke for October, seeing as how there has been only a trace at the Melbourne recording locale this month:

ORLANDO
RANK    #DAYS   END DATE
1        37    5/12/1971
2        36    5/18/1970
3        35    12/7/1967
4        33    1/25/1990
5        32    6/10/2000, 5/28/1965, 3/11/1951

CURRENT CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (THROUGH
10/29/10): 31

MELBOURNE
RANK    #DAYS   END DATE
1        46    1/3/1969
2        38    12/10/1967, 3/13/1961
4        37    5/12/1971
5        34    12/27/1961

CURRENT CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (THROUGH
10/29/10): 30

NOTE: A TRACE OF RAIN DOES NOT COUNT AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
ORLANDO AND MELBOURNE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE NO MEASURABLE RAIN
FOR OCTOBER...AN ALL TIME RECORD FOR THE MONTH. FURTHER
INFORMATION CONCERNING A RECORD DRY MONTH OF OCTOBER ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE ISSUED AFTER THE END OF THE MONTH.

"The Big Fork Super Beast" Bomb, The Thunderbirds, and STS-133

( Image: Graphical depiction of the unofficially dubbed "The Super Beast Bomb". Click on the blog title for the official Thunderbirds web site or here for details of the upcoming USAF Thunderbirds Air Show this weekend in Cocoa Beach, Florida)

RECAP: Bring in the Bomb Squad!!! The massive storm system that struck the central U.S. and was centered over Northern Minnesota bottomed out with at a minimum central pressure of 28.21" measured at 5:13pm at Big Fork in Itasca County. The previous record was 28.28" (958 mb), which was set on January 26, 1978. That storm system was dubbed - - "The Cleveland Superbomb" although I've also found references to the "Great Ohio Blizzard.

"Bomb Cyclogenesis" is a term meteorologists reserve for the most rapidly intensifying low pressure systems. "Bombs" undergo rapid pressure falls as they strengthen, and are defined by pressure drops of at least 24 millibars in 24 hours at 60°N latitude. The threshold for a bomb is a little lower in Minnesota, just 19 millibars in 24 hours at 45°N, the latitude of the Twin Cities.To illustrate how strong of a storm this is, 28.21 inches is equivalent to that which one might expect to find in a Category 3 Hurricane. Although the wind with the system was not nearly as strong as a Category 3 hurricane, the outlying affects were wind spread with over 100 wind damage reports and multiple tornado sitings. The lowest pressure for the storm that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald on November 10, 1975 was 28.95 inches. Even with the Armistice Day storm, the lowest pressure recorded was 28.55 inches. Of course, pressure is only one measurement of a storm.The strongest wind gust I could find was 77mph at Greenfield, Indiana. Note: These winds were pressure gradient winds and not like those one would find in the eye wall of a hurricane.

In other words, the storm of October 26, 2010 was a "Super Beast"! I'm sure this storm will officially be dubbed more appropriately, but for now I see no reason not to dub it the "Big Foot Super Beast"

"...Down in the cool air I can see..."

SYNOPSIS: A cold front is draped from just of the U.S. NE Coast Southeastward and through N. Georgia and further toward S. Texas. High pressure over the Atlantic is centered off the Florida East Coast, with the ridge axis extending across the North/Central Peninsula and into the Gulf. The high pressure will weaken a bit today and tonight as the front sinks south and through Florida over night Thursday and Friday.

TODAY: Warm! Orlando broke a record high temperature yesterday as well as on Tuesday and another option exists for another record yet today. And speaking of records, the NWS at Melbourne now is within the Top 5 periods of consecutive rain free days (those with a trace or immeasurably less). The all time record could be broken if they don't see rainfall by this Friday evening due to the nature of the extended outlook.

Otherwise, expecting a few patches of fog west of US-1 early this morning with partly cloudy skies shortly after sunrise. Showers possible along the east coast anytime during from mid-morning through mid-afternoon. Latest radar data is showing showers off the Florida Southeast coast before sunrise in association with a pocket of mid-level moisture approaching East Central Florida from the SSE. This moisture combined with weak, morning warming after sunrise might be enough to spark additional rain showers later this morning, and maybe a thunderstorm away from the coast by this afternoon. Any activity, if this were to occur, will be isolated and thunder chances look remote.

TONIGHT: An unseasonably warm and muggy night with the remote chance of a shower, but for all purposes there is such a low probability of this to occur that it's not worth mention.

FRIDAY: Looks like the front will enter and cross through all of Central Florida beginning a few hours before sunrise and be over South Florida by early afternoon if not sooner. There will be a very small chance of a shower associated with the front across eastern portions of the state, but should this occur it would be before 10AM. Winds behind the front will veer to the NNE with clearing sky conditions, particularly by sunset.

THUNDERBIRD WEEKEND/HALLOWEEN: High pressure over the Northern Gulf passes across Florida. Skies should be mostly clear with cooler temperatures from recent days but still quite comfortable. See link for schedule details. Looks like a great weekend for both events.

STS-133/MONDAY: The great weather continues for the 4:33pm slated launch time. Detailed information related to this missions is now available on Wikipedia.

TUESDAY: By this time, if it hasn't rained at the airport in Melbourne by this time, the all time record dry spree will be on the verge of being set. But there are implications of a storm system developing over the SE United States with ensuing rain chances and cooler air will be in the making. More fodder for future posts.

First Canaveral Rain In Nearly a Month - Dry Elsewhere

(Images: Cape Canaveral received 0.27" of rain around 8AM this morning. The last measurable amount was 0.07" on October 5th. The images show the decent Theta-E gradient in this area at the time. This was also along the leading edge of a pool of much deeper moisture aloft that entered the area from the SSE as also shown by the little pool of 'blue')

SYNOPSIS: Monster low-mid level low pressure encompasses much of the country this morning. This thing is a beast. In fact, at this current time tornado watch boxes now cover the west 1/2 of Georgia, east half of Alabama, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The strengthening area of low pressure was responsible for 3 tornadoes in East Texas, 1 in Tennessee, and 1 in extreme SE Alabama just west of the Florida border near the town of Eleanor, Alabama yesterday. The low pressure area encompasses much of the country this morning except the Florida peninsula and well far away on the other side of the country in the Pacific NW where yet another one approaches.

TODAY: As noted in the image caption, it rained quite hard for about 3 minutes this morning in Cape Canaveral. Upon view of radar, it was the only shower anywhere in Central Florida, and likely only affected Cape Canaveral and the Port. Could barely make it out on radar. Otherwise, the moisture that is shown in the image will be around for a good portion of the morning with SSE-S surface winds and late summer like temperatures. Continued chance of a rain shower until noon.

From 1-6pm there could be an isolated thunderstorm or two primarily north of Vero Beach closer to the massive low pressure further to the north. Meanwhile, at the surface locally, Central Florida is on the southern cusp of high pressure stretched across the state. Clockwise flow around this high pressure is generating the southerly component winds and bringing in patches of greater moisture depth than what has been seen in these parts for quite some time. Thunderstorms in general will be hard to come by though, as being this late in the year the sea breeze/lake breeze mechanisms have a hard time being "fully operational" due to the lower sun angle and shorter period of strong surface heating. Also, there's no mid-upper level triggering mechanisms. Regardless, with little prohibitive factors in place we can throw some thunder in here and there. There was some over South Florida yesterday, but it was very isolated and weak in nature. Expecting similar up this way today.

TUESDAY: No reason at this point to believe that Tuesday will be much different than today. New model guidance is not out yet, so I'm going for the broad brush factor due to time constraints. First thing that stood out is that warmth will continue, particularly a few miles west of US 1 and all locations further inland.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Starting to look like high pressure will resume position almost directly overhead making for less chance of rain but continued warm temperatures.

TROPICS: Hurricane now Tropical Storm Richard is over the Yucatan Peninsula with winds of 45mph and moving WNW. Only a flood threat now. Else where, a large area of disturbed weather resides far out in the eastern Atlantic with little chance of development any time within the next few days.

Tropical Activity Records Broken - Local Minimum Rainfall Stretch Record in Jeopardy

(Images -3 included- show: Tropical storm tracks in the Caribbean (Richard is the red-line), all tracks so far this season, and tabulated numerical stats on storms so far)

 

SYNOPSIS: High pressure continues over the east 1/3 of the U.S. and is centered over North Carolina this morning. Low pressure over the Southern and Central Plains will once again give rise to the possibility of strong to severe level thunderstorms today and tonight over much of that region west of the Mississippi River from Iowa south to all but West Texas today. High pressure continues south into the north-central Caribbean and across much of the Gulf Of Mexico. Tropical Storm Richard moving slowly to the west or WNW and may skim across Honduras as it approaches them (See TROPICS).

 

LOCALLY THIS WEEKEND: Pleasant and quite warm west of US-1. If you liked Friday then expect more of the same. With the wind remaining from the east over night, it only got down to 75F on my porch in Cape Canaveral with the added influence of the still warm Atlantic Ocean water temperatures. There could be a few showers over S .Florida, but further north we pretty much remain dry as high pressure to the north and cooling ocean temperatures induce an afternoon easterly, subsident sea breeze across the state. The coast will be most pleasant and nicely warm, but not exceedingly so by any means. Warmest temperatures will be west of I-95 toward the west side of the state.  Melbourne could be flirting with the record high temperature for the date on Tuesday; the record high for them today is 89F set in 2006. I do not think they will reach that today given the easterly flow generously intact, but it could be close around 3pm.

 

Surface high pressure will continue well east  into the Atlantic as the low pressure now in the Plains will enter the Dixie region Sunday and strengthen northward. Further east and southward though, progression of any weather activity associated with the low will be blocked of further eastward penetration and over Florida due to the anticyclone (high pressure) over the state and well into the Atlantic. Sounds like summer doesn't it? No cold fronts and warm afternoon temperatures. (minus the chance of rain we'd have in the summer)

 

EARLY NEXT WEEK: Wet weather does not look as possible as hoped it would be yesterday because the high pressure will remain intact across Florida and the east and northeast Gulf of Mexico. This will be affecting the future track of Richard (see TROPICS). Best chance of rain at this point appears to be late Tuesday and/or Wednesday. See data concerning prolonged periods of non-measureable rainfall in Melbourne below.

 

TROPICS: Richard is going to have a hard time reaching hurricane strength status before making a land fall near or south of Belize due to the fact it will be brushing the coast of Honduras, if not passing directly over them, prior to the time it gets further west. See the forecast track at the time of this writing in the included image. As noted yesterday, the storm is still engaged in battle with drier air to its north accompanied by wind shear. Hard to envision the system re-emerging into the Gulf as other than a remnant circulation considering its small, disorganized stature at this time. And even if it does remain as a depression, it now appears more likely that any remaining moisture will be shunted around the high pressure over the Florida peninsula and into the Deep South or maybe the western Florida Panhandle as it encounters more shear. It is interesting to note that the National Hurricane Center is keeping one eye open on two areas well out in the open Atlantic. Plenty of time to see what, if anything, becomes of them. The GFS, as well as the Canadian model (more so in previous runs)...are developing a storm out there well into next week sometime.

 

TROPICAL STATS/RECORDS FOR 2010:

According to the National Hurricane Center:

– Hurricanes Igor and Julia both reached Category 4 status simultaneously, marking the first time that has happened in 84 years.

– The last time two Cat 4s were spinning at the same time was on Sept. 16, 1926, when Hurricane No. 4 (that's how they were named back then) and the Great Miami Hurricane were in existence

.– Another indicator of how rare this is: Two major hurricanes (Category 3 and higher) have been in existence simultaneously only nine times since 1900, with the most recent instance being with Floyd and Gert in 1999.

– With sustained winds of 135 mph, Julia became the most intense hurricane so far east in the Atlantic. 

 

According to Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist of Weather Underground

– With Julia, this year has now seen four Category 4 hurricanes emerge by 5 a.m. on Sept. 15, the earliest that has happened since record keeping started in the mid-1800s.(In 1999, Hurricane Gert, the fourth Cat 4 of that season, also formed on Sept. 15 — but three hours later than Julia.)

– The emergence of Tropical Storm Karl, the 11^th named storm of the season,  made this a busy year to date at that time. The only years more active that early in the season were 2005, 1995, 1936 and 1933.

– All of this year's four Category 4 storms emerged in just twenty days, which is the shortest time span for that to happen. The previous record was 24 days in 1999, according to Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University

 

MELBOURNE RAINFALL STATS:

We are in a dry period right now, no doubt about it. Consider the top 5 periods of consecutive days receiving non-measurable rainfall, with time stretches ending in the dates noted below - :

 

#5 - 22 Days ending on March 13, 2009

#4 - 23 Days ending on March 11, 1951

#3 - 26 Days ending on June 3, 1953

#2 - 26 Days ending on May 10, 2009 (note that there was the # 5 22 day period previous to this a couple of months earlier of the same year); and,

 

#1 - 29 Days ending on May 16, 2002

 

The last day of measurable rain in Cape Canaveral and Melbourne was Thursday, October 5 of this year, which would make today the 18th day of rainfall equal to or less than a trace (less than 0.01"). Canaveral had 0.07"  on that date from a cluster of large clouds that moved in from the North Side of the Cape late in the afternoon of that day. No where else other than Brevard (which is in a Severe Drought already) did rain fall over Central Florida that day. Sort of a cruel twist of irony. As of the latest official record made by the the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), counties further north up the coast as well as counties further west have done nothing but dry up. As such, the region of 'drought' (at various levels) is expanding from east to west and up the coast. The southern 1/3 of the peninsula is drought free and West Central Florida over toward Tampa is now "Abnormally Dry".

 

Special thanks extended to the Melbourne NWS Office from providing the rainfall data to me this morning.