Clouds and Cold Will Lift for the Weekend

Images: Posting the images shown because as the saying goes "A picture paints a thousand words". Satellite image shown depicts the extent of cloud coverage, and most pronouncedly, where it does not extend. Clear skies are not far away from East Central Florida, but South Florida sees no hope for the direcct sun rays today. Moisture and showers just off shore.

TODAY: Low pressure features are passing South and west of the Florida Keys this afternoon and upper level winds aloft are streaming over them, shearing the moisture laden upper level atmosphere across the South 1/2 of the state. Brevard County is currently on the northern extent of the receiving end of this event. Meanwhile, an inverted trough co-located near the Gulf Stream off shore in conjunction with what was noted yesterday as a weak low pressure area over the Northern Bahamas lies in waiting for the energies associated with the first feature to spread on in...

In the meantime, for the earlier portions of the afternoon, cloudy skies persist over much of the area for which this blog covers. If you are a reader and look outside at clear skies right now, you will stay that way. It's the folks further south of you that have the short term weather to contend with.

By later this afternoon, in the 4-6pm time frame, it is entirely possible the 850mb and some 500mb vorticity will act upon the inverted trough laying in waiting offshore the east coast. Additionally, the NNW surface winds should begin to veer more toward the NNE (from which winds just above the surface are already from)...providing for a deep enough, yet very shallow column of moisture sogged air to generate a more concentrated shallow cloud deck. Concentrated enough to result in precipitation over the barrier islands. Should this occur, it will be within an hour or two of sunset.

The fly in the ointment that should things align ever so slightly further to the east than anticipated, the rain will remain off shore...and in fact, the skies could even start to break up...but for now, I'm playing the devils advocate in gambling with model consensus. Any rain that will fall will be solely east of I-95, if not US1, from Oak Hill to Ft. Pierce. Further south, those areas into Palm Beach and Broward Counties are contending with the dynamics of an entirely different animal. Regardless, the end result is the same.

Afternoon high temperatures I expect will be much cooler than formally released by the press due to the cloud cover and/or evaporative cooling of any early stage rain that tries to fall but evaporates before penetrating the very dry air that is struggling to modify (as noted in yesterday's "spine of the state" dryness image).

TONIGHT: Should clouds remain in place, as is most likely, overnight lows will be much milder over those areas that will clear out further to the north. Those areas will be colder for sure without the radiation blanket of clouds thrust overhead.

FRIDAY: Still a tough call for the coast from Oak Hill and south. But, I do believe the rain chance can be removed altogether with the only thorn being the possibility of clouds, but do believe they will be on the decrease as well allowing afternoon temperatures to rise most notably into the upper 60s or near 70F degrees. Reason being the forecast winds at 925mb will weaken and loss their onshoreward directed component.

SATURDAY: Rain free and warmer both by night and by day. Could even maybe do some shorts by afternoon...but don't pack away the long johns just yet. Overall, Saturday looks to be the most comfortable, pleasant day on the shelf in entirety for some time to come.

SUNDAY: Very pleasant other than some increasing high clouds. Should be rain free all day with a warm southwest wind...but the folks in the Panhandle and N. Central Florida up toward Gainesville and eventually Ocala area will be first to see and feel the harbinger of things to come in the form of more cloudiness and rain before daylight ends. Further south into most of the Central and Southern Portions of the state we should remain precipitation free until after sunset.

This is different from earlier proposals for this time frame. That is, it looks like the cold front headed this way is going to be delayed (most conveniently) by several hours from what was previously thought. As such, not a bad day overall.

MONDAY: Cold front passes through overnight and morning dawns cold and very breezy. Could see our warmest temperature of the day in the morning...or whatever the temperature is at 10am might just hold steady there until late afternoon, after which it drops like a rock. Windy too from the NW-NNW. Monday is not going to be a fun day to romp about in shorts for sure. Have muffs, gloves, scarves, coats, ..will travel.

TUESDAY: Coldest morning of next week as winds die down a bit, but not entirely. On the other hand, a little warmer than Monday in the afternoon but not warm enough to change the wardrobe. Must point out at this time, that it does not look as though it will get as cold as advertised yesterday...in fact, not nearly as much so. Basically, it will be comparable to that which we've just experienced that past few days...give or take.

WEDNESDAY: Modification of the cold air mass fully commences as we await the next system

CHRISTMAS: Outlooks for this time frame will begin by Monday. For now, not expecting tremendously cold air to be in place, but the chance of precipitation may prove problemmatic. But again, it is unrealistically way to far off in time to do anything more than hypothesize. Can't even come up with a theorem yet no less.

Two Tales Of Winter Next 5 Days - James Bay Storm Machine in High Gear

Image: The 1km relative humidity this morning, shows just what we mean in addressing the "spine"of the state. Direct northerly, dry wind component right down midway. It is, in fact, dry to the spinal bone.

TODAY: Crisp morning with light winds is giving way to a cool afternoon with clear skies, other than some interesting contrails all over the place at 11am. Low pressure system is developing in the Central Gulf of Mexico, while another is trying to take shape near the N. Bahamas. The Gulf Low will move east, then more southerly with time as it approaches the Florida Peninsula overnight and then moves generally toward Western Cuba on Thursday. Bahama low lingers with little to no intensification in the short term.

Mostly sunny today, with an increase in some high clouds by late afternoon and into the early evening. Temperatures running well below seasonable norms once again today.

TONIGHT: Clouds on the increase mean an end to radiational cooling in the morning this day, and if anything, radiational warming (if there is such a thing) during the peak coolest hours of pre-day break Thursday, as the Gulf low approaches the Florida straits. Overnight lows probably a good 5 degrees warmer tonight, if not more so.

THURSDAY: The atmosphere is very dry right now as notable by the image included in today's 'dry to the spinal bone' image post. This air will be slow to modify, and as such, the precipitation shield portrayed by the NAM over the South 1/2 of Florida to be in place by daybreak is probably over done and will manifest only as low, overrunning warm air, cloud coverage initially. By late morning, energy at the low and upper levels associated with this system will gather with that of the system over the Bahamas. The result will be a backwash in the incumbent circulation from the NE along the coast from Daytona south to Vero Beach.

As such, cloudy conditions are expected for the day's entirety Thursday for most if not all but the Northern 1/3 of the state. The greatest chance of overrunning warmer air above the cold platter at the surface generating stratiform rain will be along the intercoastal. This is somewhat a hard pill to swallow, in that such an event is pretty darned unusual. So it is with bated breath I close my eyes and swallow the pill, hoping it goes down all the way without getting stuck. Because...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: If indeed the NAM (with the GFS coming into agreement) verifies, it will be the US1-A1A corridor from the Cape south to West Palm and maybe even Ft Lauderdale that could get wrapped up in isentropic backwash. In other words, lots of low clouds and rain. The greatest chance of such to manifest will be along the Brevard county intercoastal to Vero Beach. At best, it will just be cloudiness with no thermal heating to serve the soul which could put a bust on the high temperature outlook for this area. Folks further to the west might very well be carrying on their daily activities with no reserve and in complete ignorance to the conditions befalling their coastal cohorts just an hour drive away.

Seen it happen before. You leave Orlando under partly cloudy skies, only to cross I-95 heading toward the beach with a big cloud shield facing you dead ahead...which turns to light rain upon crossing the Indian and Banana Rivers. You get to A1A and it's an entirely different world from the one you left behind just an hour ago. Say it isn't so!

So to cut to the chase, best chances of rain, should there be any, will be from noon-dark along and east of US1 from Titusville to Vero, and over extreme S. Florida and the keys in association with the Gulf low. On a more positive note, this could all remain just offshore so we'll have to play it by ear.

FRIDAY: Warmer temperatures in the afternoon. For the most part, many areas will be in the clear. Most specifically N. Central Florida and down the west 1/2 of the state. But again, the Cape area comes into tricky territory. Exactly how quickly the entire conglomerate east of the state moves away remains up in the air. If it is to continue to rain anywhere it will be the A1A corridor...and at worst case, the whole way into Saturday. UGH. Then again, maybe not. I say it like it is, which is why I don't get paid for it. But for the most part, I think the east will be okay and in actuality could end up being a decent day overall. In other words, this is a 'crossing my fingers and hoping for the best' forecast.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Much warmer with a high in the low 70s. Finally. In the meantime, the writing is on the wall now...considering the model consistency during the past 48 hours. As feared, the worst of the cold has yet to come, and when it arrives it will be WITH A VENGEANCE!

Good rain chances Sunday as moisture and upper level energy all come in perfect syncopation in the form of a band of rain (thunderstorms so far do not seem to be the operative term yet)...but in whatever form it develops, it won't be here to stay too long. That's good I suppose, even if we are in a severe drought. Who wants a cool and very windy rain anyway making everything all nasty? Expecting some pretty sharp clearing, but not for a good reason.

MOAN-DAY: For with the clearing by sunrise will come the Blast from Arctic Hell. Preliminary MOS data paints a low temperature for Orlando Tuesday morning of 26F with PAFB at 35F! That second one is debatable in my mind...heck, I'm shooting for freakin' 29F, with wind too. Cold all day Monday...and

TUESDAY:....today. More cold with a last hurray. Things will modify pretty quickly for mid week before the next storm system takes shape around the James Bay storm machine which is partly responsible for the misery that everyone from Florida to Maine is contending with into next week. Could be worse though...snow is not in the equation here which complexes the forecast challenged 10 fold.

Think It's Cold Today? - Man Your Snuggie Stations!!

Images first show is the current temperature layout; second image early next week. Say hi to "Santa Breath".

Synopsis: The combination of Low pressure near Nova Scotia and High pressure over the central Plains is shaking hands in agreement, with a nod at the Deep South with evil intent. Cold air has been enabled, as a result of their agreement, to engage in full on assault to the sandal clad shorts wearers of Florida, sending them burrowing deep in to the quilts.

TODAY: Cold air advection continues is about all their is to say. As expect, the surface winds last night into early this morning never completely decoupled, and as a result mixing of the lower boundary layer level has precluded the temperature from dropping even further than what it has already, as if it weren't bad enough. I think, in general, temperatures are not as cold as was being considered by the NWS on the broad scale, but on our local scale I think they are colder than what was expect. However, after many years of experience forecasting for this area, it has been my observation that the immediate A1A corridor does not have its coldest mornings when radiational cooler drainage flow air is at its peak performance. This air tends to stay limited to the spine of the state, sparing the coastal areas. On the other hand, when the wind is up...cold air has the power hand to spread it's wealth uniformly over the state which is certainly the case this morning and as can be seen by the included surface depiction of 8am EST.

Cold air will continue pro bonum today free of charge, not sure it's for the public good though (who hired these guys anyway?)...with no legal restraint. Today will be the coldest overall day yet, with a high in the lower end mid 50s range, which will only be during the peak heating hours of 1:00 - 2:30pm. For the most part we'll be in the low 50s today. These temperatures won't have far to fall tonight.

TONIGHT: Snuggie time. But we'll need to wear 3 at once. No more having to decide which of your favorite to wear, heck...wear'm all! Believe the atmosphere will decouple tonight leaving the residual layer of elevated wind aloft with near calm winds at the surface. Cold air advection will abate, but it will already be in place as the coldest of air barely overhead can settle to the surface and ooze south along the state's geographical features of nicks and crannies, filling in the little cracks and crevices of the local low lying areas. Those areas most prone to getting cold in events past, will feel the brunt tonight of this episode. Along the coast though, without the chill of wind in your face, it probably won't feel nearly as bad as it does this morning come sunrise Wednesday, and it probably won't be any colder either since the surrounding warmer waters will have a debilitating effect on the local enviroment.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY: Gradual warming, although using the word 'warming' is a bit of a misnomer, considering the temperature will still be well below what is considered to be average for this time of year. High back toward the 60s, especially Thursday under mostly clear skies. Morning lows Thursday still to freezing in North Central portions, with wide spread mid-upper 30s well inland...but into the 40s along the coasts.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Warming in earnest ensues, but pretty much just enough to help thaw out a bit before the next onslaught late Sunday into Monday. (see included image). Could see some rain or even thunderstorms by the first 1/2 of Sunday as the system gathers steam in the Deep South and swoops the cold front from 'frozen hell' through during the day. And after that...

Should the above forecast hold true (as shown in that image) it will be even colder WITH wind as well, then the past 2 days have been...early next week! Make it stop!!

Fe Fi Fo Fum, The Coldest Is Yet to Come

Image: Colorized depiction of surface temperatures at 7AM this Monday morning. Note the cold pocket over the barrier island near Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Cold air continues to filter in to Florida from the NW this morning. The process seemed to begin here locally around 5pm, Sunday when the wind picked up and the air took on a refreshed quality. Cold air advection will be fully underway all day today, and as such, believe afternoon high temperatures will be colder than what I last saw advertised on The Weather Channel or heard from local media.

At current time it is nearly 41F, colder than I thought it would be here this morning by a few degrees. Elsewhere, temperatures are running in the upper 20s along the panhandle to upper 30s will inland which is almost warmer than I thought it would be. That means, the winds are still up a notch, and that cold air advection has not completed its cycle. But in looking upstream combined with the latest forecast model depictions, they seem to be trending downward from previous guesses. The greatest impact of this 'progression' will be for the afternoon temperatures to be colder today than it was initially thought they would be, with a high along the Barrier Islands of around 54F and an irritating NW wind to add a chill to the air in any place open to the wind and in the shade. This was previously what I thought it would be Tuesday.

TUESDAY: Don't think the atmosphere will yet to completely decouple from the boundary layer winds aloft, as such we should still have some mixing and consequently not the unusual amount of cooling as one would expect under prime radiational cooling conditions, with surface winds maintaining a general NW wind component from sunrise to near sunset but lighter than those this morning.

WEDNESDAY: This might be the BIG day. A lower low, and a higher afternoon high temperature to be in order as the atmosphere completely decouples under clear skies Tuesday night. Very light to nil wind, clear skies, and the residual layer aloft will combine for peak drainage flow conditions. As such, the coldest temperatures over many areas will be not Tuesday but Wednesday morning; however, under these conditions the barrier islands will not be any colder than one will experience on Tuesday. Should this indeed be the case on Wednesday morning, we will see some big temperature extremes between morning coastal low temperatures to those west of I-95 from Orlando south to Kendall/Miami-Dade where the coldest of air drains down the spine of the state and pools near and south of Lake Okeechobee.

But every coin has a flip side. The end of the mixing winds is also an indicator that cold air advection has ceased. As such, under clear afternoon skies and lighter winds, the atmosphere will take an about face and warm just as formidably as it will have cooled the night before, with a high reaching in to the low-mid 60s by the 1-2pm time frame.

THURSDAY -SATURDAY: A less pervasive coldness to the air, but still very cool as temperatures trickle up the scale.

LATE-SATURDAY - ON: "Fe Fi Fo Fum...I smell the blood of colder air to come."

Say it isn't so, and we still have time for the crystal balls to re-evaluate. But, should proof come in the proverbial pudding, then it's going to be a nasty one. We see, oh great soothsayer, a squall line to form in the Gulf of Mexico followed by cold, near freezing winds by Monday as a resurgence of the omnipresent conditions of late are re-enforced.

Say it isn't so. We'll see.... Just a heads up. I hope not to have a final 'flip-out'...and will update the status of this foreboding event in subsequent posts. Last thing we need to be doing is ice-fishing in the Atlantic any time soon.

Phreaky Phantom Phront To Pass Overhead Today

Image: Interesting satellite image this morning clearly delineates the cold frontal boundary stretched East/West across the Gulf, Florida, and into the Atlantic Ocean. This boundary is dropping steadily south at about 15mph.

TODAY: Southwesterly winds early to shift to the NW once the cold front passes. At this point, timing would place passage across the Orlando to KSC line sometime around 10:30am. Radar does show very light rain associated with the boundary, but believe it is not reaching the ground, but if it is you'd hardly notice nor need to fret, let alone, prepare for it. By midafternoon winds will be NW and continued breezy with a high temperature probably not reaching 70F.

TONIGHT: Pretty darned cold, with the worst yet to come. Lows in the mid-upper 30s area wide except the A1A corridor from Cape Canaveral south where low-mid 40s seems more reasonable. Winds will remain elevated tonight and into Monday, so the wind chill apparent temperature will be a real bug in the side. Cover up!

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Cold with temperatures well below what is considered 'normal' (whatever that means) for this time of year. I say this because at this time of year, temperatures can run in such a wide gamut of variability that 'normal' is a misleading disparity to reality, when in actuality a better word or words like "what you'd normally expect to experience over a 50 year average on a nice early December day"...which even then, although not exactly informative, might do better to serve us well.

I think sometimes these 'average' temperatures need to be re-evaluated by the NWS because over a period of time the 'average' bears little to no weight...maybe more precisely in statistics might usethe weighted average or norm. In any case, what we are trying to say is don't expect it to feel warm or even just kind of cool. It will be cold before 10am with freezing temperatures pretty much everywhere except along and east of A1A. Not good. But temperatures where it does get below freezing shouldn't stay down there to long...by 9AM we'll all be above the 'blue lips...frozen finger tips" mark unless you've decided to take a skinny dip.

WEDNESDAY-NEXT WEEKEND: Continued 'abnormally cool in the afternoons and a bit cold for 'getting the morning paper in your skivvies' cold. No chance of rain or any appreciable weather activity whatsoever other than maybe some pretty sunsets.

THE GREAT BEYOND: No bigger cold spells in store, wont it to get colder than it already will. What'd you expect, snow? Have it folks up there in the great white tundra of N. Georgia.

From Cool to Cold - Let It Be Told

Image: A frozen Brevard County front yard from December, 1989

TODAY-SUNDAY: Pleasant afternoon in store with a high near 68F. Not nearly as cold tonight along the beachs with a low in the low-mid 50s, but with much lighter winds in store, clear skies, and dry air in place we will be primed for a combination of radiational cooling and light drainage flow down the spine of the state. The coolest area might actually end up being inland down by (and south of) Lake Okeechobee. Sunday will be the warmest day of the week with a high near 70F.

MONDAY: No action in the rain or wind department as a 'silent front' drops south from Canada with Old Man Winter riding shot gun, with guns loaded, into Florida.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Tuesday will be the overall coldest with freezing temperatures pretty much everywhere west of US1 as far south as Lake Okeechobee.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Only a slow trend upward will the mercury go inside the thermometer. But the end does appear to be in sight, if for only a short time, to the much colder than normal temperatures we will have all of this upcoming week.

Dry (check), Too Cold (check), Winter (Yep)

IMAGE: This is a color depiction included in today's post which shows the morning temperatures where they were generally at their lowest this morning.

TODAY: An overly cool airmass within the NW wind coveyor belt contained within a dry air mass will yield clear skies and cool temps through the next 10 days.

TONIGHT: Another cool night, much like last night's with a low mostly in the 40s central and south.

WEEKEND: About a 5 degree warming through Saturday and Sunday, with reinforcements on the way for mid-week next week, but remaining dry.

Not much else to elaborate on today. Still looking toward Christmas without too much concern in regards to severe winter weather...but do see a hint of a system to form off the SE Texas coast around day 12...bears watching.

Drainage Flow and Florida Cold Snaps

Image shows morning dewpoint temperatures are down to a chilly and cold purple color, which is defined by the scale on the left side of the image.

RECAP: A cold front swept down the state yesterday producing little in rainfall over the Peninsula, although the spectacle created by its leading edge was somewhat impressive to view as sunrise approached coexistingly. Almost equally inspiring was the sharp clearing line that ensued around noon time. It's all water under the bridge now though as a mid-upper level trough will persist over the eastern 1/3 of the nation for the next 7-10 days.

TODAY: Dry and cool! See image above which shows the dew point temperatures. I like this depiction because it really points out those areas that are most prone to getting the coldest during the winter, which began climatically speaking yesterday. Note the cold spots around Punta Gorda and along the West Coast, all of the Panhandle, and north side of Lake Okeechobee. The warmest area is from Cape Canaveral south along A1A to Miami. Even Kendal in extreme South Florida often gets colder than Cocoa Beach. Pretty bizarre. Which leads to a topic in particular:

DRAINAGE (FLOW): You will see this term referred to in many a discussion during the winter...although it can be applied to as a temperature marker at almost any given time of the year; but it is during the winter that drainage flow has the greatest and most notable impact, undoubtedly to the citrus crop.

Drainage flow of cold air occurs on evenings under pristinely clear skies and dead calm winds. Cold air flows down the 'spine' of the state over the cooler land mass (than the surrounding waters) the whole way to Kendal. The immediate coastline such as along A1A corridor and all of the Florida Keys doesn't really feel the direct impact due to the intracoastal and/or the Atlantic Ocean waters. Clear skies allow any heat generated during the day to dissipate back into the atmosphere (whereas cloud cover at night acts as a blanket), and calm winds prevents mixing, or allows the atmosphere to "mix out"..think of it as that the molecules are all excited and rubbing up against each other creating 'heat' when it is windy.

Thus, when little to no wind and clear skies combine, and likely the affects of gravity and the Coriolis Force (perhaps) permitted to act without opposing outside influence "drainage flow" takes center stage. Net affect is the penetration of cooler/colder down the landmass to the most southern extent away from any bodies of water. Thus, Kendal's low temperatures often undercutting those locations much further north but closer to the Atlantic. The drier the overall air mass is the lower the dewpoint goes, and the lower the ambient air temperature can go as well. Thus, it is during the winter time when dew point temperatures fall the lowest, combined with drainage flow conditions, that sends even the Snow Birds on migration to the equator (in the most extreme, rare case situations).

QUIZ: Do you think Drainage Flow was the main reason the temperature was so cold toward Kendal and Punta Gorda this morning? If not, why?

THIS AFTERNOON: NNW-NW winds to continue as the cold air advection continues. Clear sky with a high struggling to reach the mid-60s. Temperatures begin to fall again 1 hour before sunset, during which will probably be quite a nice looking one. Might try for some photos tonight, but more likely Friday night.

FRIDAY: Another chilly start to the day with lows in the panhandle once again in the mid-upper 20s in some locales and gradually warming to the low 40s the further south one gets. The extreme east coast from the Air Force Station to Miami will again be the warmest in the state, not disguarding the Keys of course which are surrounded by modifying ocean water temperatures (cheaters!). High again unlikely to reach 70F.

SATURDAY-MONDAY: Only a slight warm up. Fall, and for that matter, early winter is here to stay. No rain with sunny days and lighter winds with each progressive day after today.

TUESDAY: Incoming re-enforcements of cold air! What? But we never got warm! So it is. A broad, deep trough of mid-upper level low pressure will presist over the east 1/3 to 1/4 of the country (mainly east of the Mississippi) for the next 7-10 days. As such, storm systems will continue to carve a path along and around the base of the trough, at which Florida is the recipient base. However, by the time these 'shortwave' systems reach Florida they are of a very weak moisture profile nature and yield neigh but some clouds as they pass over. Cold air on newly refreshed NW winds harbors in continued surges of cold Canadian air.

So far, Wednesday looks to be the peak of the cold spell, or maybe more appropriately, the bottom.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND: Oh yes, the great 'beyond'. What evil lurks in the mind of Old Man Winter? No need to prepare the chains and snow plows down here just yet, and perhaps the tanning oil will be needed as a stocking stuffer as we head toward Christmas if that's an indication of my hopeful ambitions concerning the unforeseeable future. For now though, it could actually warm a spell just in time for Christmas. No big storms / rainmakers are on the horizon, so the next topic of concern beyond possible freeze conditions next week (one of many to come) will be spreading drought conditions by the time late February rolls around and resultant Fire Weather.

Oh, almost forgot. The answer to the quiz is 'no'. We had too much wind state wide for "drainage flow" by definition to be the main reason it was so cold down there this morning. Now, in a day or two, the answer will be 'yes' as winds subside and we will see some pretty sharp temperature gradient boundaries become established by the numbers therefrom.

Today is the First Day of Climatological Winter, and Right on Cue

(Images: Show the location of the front on radar quite impressively as it passes across Brevard County. The other image is what it looked like outside at the same time. And today is December 1st...read more about this date below:

1.The first day of the astronomical winter is December 21.

2. The first day of the climatological winter (as defined by the World Meteorological Organization) is December 1. That's today!

3. The first day of the ecological winter occurs locally with the end of the growing season. This date varies from one region to another and can shift from one year to the next; however in general, the ecological winter begins in November in cool temperate climates and December in mild temperate climates.

Well, as noted the cold front is moving on thru right now and will complete it's passage over Central Florida before noon time. Northwest winds behind the front will usher in much drier and cooler air during the course of the day with our high temperature of the day likely already reached around 7AM or 8AM this morning.

THIS AFTERNOON: Clouds will begin to clear after a post-frontal trough crosses the area which will produce another rounds of a light sprinkle and enhanced cloud cover chances, but this should be out of the picture by late in the afternoon. The main intolerable difference today will be a northwest wind harboring in a much cooler, modified Canadian Air Mass during the course of the afternoon and through the evening tonight.

TONIGHT: Clouds will have cleared by sunset, or close to it. Winds will stay elevated throughout the evening as temperatures fall to near 49F along the coast and near 45F inland.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Mainly clear skies will prevail throughout the period with a gradually waning wind strength from the NNW-N late in the period. Morning lows will probably bottom out on Friday morning where the correlation of lightest possible winds and cold air advection will make their greatest intersection across the meteorological realm of possibilities for this particular system. Lows in the low 50s near the coast and highs will struggle with 70 degrees.

SUNDAY: Very little change with regard to temperatures or sky cover, with a gradual warm up...but not by much. We are in it for the long haul. Another front will enter the picture next Tuesday or Wednesday to repeat this process all over again, and next time maybe even cooler to down right cold with its arrival. Looks like our days of 80 degrees are over outside of an errant "day before the front" event.

Perfect timing though, the first day of Meteorological Winter.

Last Day Of Warmer Air - Multiple "Hints" of Winter to Begin Tomorrow

Image: Panoramic view from the porch as rain showers approach from the south, paralleling the east Florida coast and crossing mainly the barrier islands.

SYNOPSIS: Weak low level forcing and a moisture flux divergence max exists right as I type over the eastern Cape south to Patrick Air Force Base over the barrier islands and brushing the US1 corridor as well. Showers are generating along the southern edge of greatest forcing near Sebastian inlet and passing mainly offshore, but making a brush with the Aloha County of Brevard.

Elsewhere, the storm system / cold front reponsible for multiple tornado reports (8) on mainly Lousiana and Mississippi is approaching the Florida Panhandle today as high pressure centered east of Florida continues to paddle further out into the great blue sea and away from the state.

As a result, surface and steering winds just above the surface will swing ever so slowly more torward the S-SSW today. Rain showers will continue to impact the barrier islands for the most part, but other parts of East Brevard are seeing the H20 as well falling from the moisture laden but somewhat whimpy clouds of little vertical extent just overhead.

TODAY: It is raining right now at my place at 9:05am, and has been off and on since daybreak. Most areas, like 90% of the county is not getting rain, and from a state perspective only about 3 percent of the entire state is getting rain....thus, if it is raining where you are now, trust me, that is not the case for the vast majority. As a matter of fact, the sky is almost down right nearly clear south of a line running from Sebastian Inlet to Sarasota.

Expect morning rains to continue right at the coast until noon time, then it gets tricky. The RUC model has been becoming more aggressive with not only increasing the rainfall, but also extending out in time how long it will last. AND, as of now and according to the last run, it' s not even supposed to be raining here yet ...not until 11am.\ (according to it). On the other hand, last night's mid-range models all showed the rain will end..and in fact, it has here right now. They show all rain to be over the remainder of daylight hours. I'm siding with that resolvement and believing that all areas will be good to go before noon with warmer temperatures by early afternoon in those areas with little to zero cloud coverage which e will be just about everywhere.

Foks between US1 - I95 and over toward Orlando should remain dry for the most part, as well as though over all of South Florida until later this afternoon at least (more likely to see rain down there over night tonight though, and very little of it at best).

Today will be the warmest day we will see on average for possibly well into December. So man your battle stations, we are going to be at war with Old Man Winter (albeit in a much sub-dued state) beginning sunset Wednesday and through the weekend. It won't be any colder though than what it was last time we got kind of 'cool' over 10 days ago though.

TONIGHT: Rain chances increase in areal coverage over the entire state as the front approaches, but any significant accumulations should be north of a Ft. Myers to Vero Beach line since the tail end (south end) of the front will be lacking even more in upper level dynamtic energy than what Central portions will be provided with. Any severe weather threat will be confined to the Panhandle region, although we could receive some thunder applause over night tonight should one particular storm get its 'act' together. But no one is going to be taking home an Emmy this time around.

WEDNESDAY: Front on the approach at day break after having already cleared all of NW Florida. It will start out cloudy with some light rain in the vicinity. Over night low in near 70F +/- three degrees pretty much everywhere under the blanket of evening clouds.

Now expect the front to cross east central Florida between the hours of 8AM to 1pm before it blasts on through South Florida by sunset. Rapid clearing behind the boundary and NW winds on its chilly heels begins the cold air advection pattern all night over night in Thursday morning and lingering into Saturday as well.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Pleasantly cool with sweater and jacket mornings and sun ray catching afternoons in whatever you wish to wear that makes you happy, uh...within legal reason..

NEXT WEEK: Veering winds bring a slight return to an onshore flow regime as the GFS now shows another system to cross about 1 week after the one coming up tomorrow.

It is this system that beaqrs watching from a 'very chilly weather' perspective. But for now, just watching...and praying "NOooooooooo".

Cooler Air Mass is on the Way..But in the Meantime

Images: Latest KSC Sounding and radar image as of 6am showing rain along the coast

SYNOPSIS: As noted yesterday, a surface boundary (front) had pushed south of Central Florida but it has now lifted back to the north and now resides well to the north, bisecting the Panhandle. A richer in moisture content, as well as a deeper low level layer of atmospheric condenscing moisture, has taken residence across East Central Florida as a direct result of the boundary passing north and interacting with the 1000 ft boundary alluded to yesterday that had remained in place all day yesterday and into the midnight hour. When the two met up the rains started. As of 7AM my rain bucket has accumulated 0.70" of rain since about 3AM, and it now rains some more as I type.

Please note the KSC sounding shown in this post. It certainly appears it was launched in the rain with total saturation indicated up to nearly 10,000 feet. The radar image shown has looked much like this with minor variations over the entire over night hour. In fact, once the rain started in Cape Canaveral it hardly ever came to a complete and total stop with very very light sprinkles being the prevailing 'modus operandi'.

Elsewhere across the great U.S Expanse, a deep area of low pressure is centered over the Tornado State of Kansas near Topeka with a large area of high pressure to its east extending up and down the Mid Atlantic and SE States' Atlantic Coasts and over the Bahamas. Easterly flow in the low and mid -levels has set camp for the first part of the week until the next approaching weather producing system (not that they all don't produce some form or another of 'weather' so to speak) reaches the Florida Panhandle early Tuesday. This front will cross Central Florida Wednesday morning.

TODAY: With the presence of continued flux of low level moisture on the boot straps of a moderate east to ESE flow, moisture convergence could continue to occur throughout the day, most affecting the immediate coast from near West Palm north to eventually Daytona Beach. We might see a big let up in the rain proximity to the coast for a time from mid-late morning through early afternoon. But then something similar to our early morning rain-showers could once again begin by 2pm and continue into the over night hours and into Tuesday morning.

Temperatures will be a little cooler along the coast due to cloud coverage and our onshore wind component, whereas inland and from West Palm South it could be warmer with less clouds and no moisture convergence or suface moisture flux divergence being such a critical factor as they are further north over Indian River, Brevard, and Volusia Counties.

TUESDAY: Similar to today in all ports of call for the most part. Just exactly when it will rain is hard to say...but could be any time. For instance, at this VERY moment it suddenly started to pour pretty hard at 7:52AM. Who woulda thunk it? One look at radar tells the story though.

But it gets tricky. I'll bet now the coastal rainshower activity will end overnigh ronight as surface winds begin to parallel the coast, preventing 'shower landfall' syndrome (SLS). Therefore, the Tuesday sunrise should dawn partly cloudy.

Believe we will see a pre-frontal trough take shape during the day especially with good heating over the land area (the peninsula). As such, the heaviest of rains (of that which will fall somewhere), will be with the prefrontal trough and not the front proper. Might even see a thunderstorm of very isolated nature late Tuesday afternoon, but any threat of wide spread thunderstorms does not appear to be in the cards quite yet, but we'll see. These prefrontal troughs sometimes get a mind of their own it would seem.

WEDNESDAY MORNING:The actual front it now appears will be on the approach across Pad 39A at precisely 7:14:35 and 1 nanoseconds....A.M. Eastern Standard Time. Set your watch.

It will clear the region quickly during the day and be followed by much drier NW winds (flow) and clearing skies.

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: Very nice with cool morning low temperatures in the low-mid 50s along the coast and afternoons gradually warming, but not by much to near normal highs in the mid-upper 70s after struggling to break 72F Thursday and Friday. The best day for kite boarding appears will be Late Wednesday and Thursday Afternoon. Winds will die down considerably by the weekend. Hard to say which will be the nicer of the two days, Saturday or Sunday; we should all have such conundrums in life, no?

1000 Feet With a Front Overhead

RECAP: The cold front manage to slide through the peninsula yesterday for the most part right at the surface level, but just a 1000 feet aloft where winds parallel the jet stream the front remains at this time directly over Central Florida. You can see from the attached images that the dew point temperature gradient is pretty steep with upper 20s - mid 30s in actual temperature over the panhandle and 70s over the south. Our morning low along the coast was in the mid 60s and warmer than inland around Orlando. Most pronounced is the graphic showing the drier air to the north. The sounding shows how the winds aloft switch almost right overhead at 9500 feet. and that it is within a below that critical point where most of the moisture resides.

TODAY: Front aloft will remain nearly in place as the parent low pressure system well off to the NNW\E moves away from the United States. The front will pull off to the east and weaken as a strong but fast moving high pressure zone moves toward the Carolinas to our north, placing the state in an ENE-E wind regime of the somewhat moist type due to mixing.

The result will be a relatively moist air mass being advected into the coast from the east ...partly due to mixing of differential moisture boundaries aloft and the temperature of the warmer ocean waters from hence the wind will blow. Partly cloudy to sometime cloudy and maybe even some showers after 2:00pm.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Much the same as winds veer more ESE - SE on Tuesday and the boundary pulls away. Another, stronger front will be on the way for Wednesday morning. But until that time arrives, the state will remain with a chance of rain showers more likely on Tuesday than today or Monday. Moderated afternoon and evening temperatures due to the ocean's influence combined will clouds will keep the east coast within a 10 degree range of variability between morning lows and afternoon highs. Showers off and on, some could be moderate by later Monday or Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY: The front will be at the door around sunrise Wednesday and will clear Central Florida by late afternoon. Rain chances until the front gets south of about Vero Beach will remain...after which, by late Wednesday the clouds will break as temperatures remain cool. Wednesday may see little change between the temperature at sunrise versus that which it will attain by 2pm. So far, it does not look like this next cold front will be all too bad, but we'll know it as morning sweaters and evening jackets will fit the apparent, apparel bill well.

My Morph Into Travis Tritt

Your Forecast today will be brought to you by Travis Tritt. If viewing this from an email you might need to go to the blog on line itself to see the transformation

Another Warm" Day Afte"r or 'Black Friday"

Image: Memories of another Thanksgiving fade as the weather engines keeps on rolling.

As you can see by the image included in today's post, a cold front is about to enter the Florida. This system is being sustained over the N. Ohio Valley by a 140kt jet stream. Locally, the final remnants of high pressure will be pulling of Eastern Florida during the mid-late morning as the front very slowly approaches in a much weakened state, much like the turkey shown above. It will be a turkey of a front for sure.

TODAY: The front will remain north and west of Tampa-Melbourne line and everywhere south of there today as it makes only slow progress and begins to parallel the jet stream. Moisture will be increasing as the high pressure area over East Central Florida pulls out. Clouds will be generated by both the moisture, winds aloft, and the warmer than normal temperatures from day time heat.

We may seem some breaks in the clouds throughout the day and about the time the high fully pulls out, but believe that will be short lived as heating of the day will by that time begin to be reaching its peak. Thus, we could see more clouds by mid afternoon, earlier further west one goes. Rain chances are possible along the west side of the state first, but will spread (the chances that is) east to the east coast by 4PM. They will generally be light to moderate in strength where they do occur. There is close to zero dynamics and lift here today, as such not really expecting anything worse than maybe an ocassional distant thunder at worst. Winds will be noticeably from the SW all day long. Afternoon high will likely be in the low 80s.

TOMORROW: The front will pass Central Florida proper shortly after sunrise and will be followed by NW winds at 15-22mph through the early afternoon before they start to veer and weaken by late day under partly-mostly cloudy skies. The low tonight should remain near 70 degrees ahead of the front and under cloud coverage, spotty at times. Slight chance of rain continues at a low end through much of the day as the front will be slow to clear South Central-South Florida entirely.

SUNDAY: Winds continue to swing aroudn toward the NE-ENE and finally East advecting low level moisture above the surface of the warmer air generated just above the ocean's surface near the coast. As such, might see a coastal shower from the Cape and everywhere south to Miami.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Winds quickly veer more toward the S-SSW Tuesday ahead of yet another and stronger frontal system. Just exactly how great the affect will be from this system beginning over night Tuesday into Wednesday is somewhat up for grabs. But it does appear the rain chances wil be much greater with it, as will the temperatures be appreciably cooler behind it. We'll meet the turn in the bend as we approach it heading into the first week of December.

Giving Thanks For Warm Weather Continuation In Florida

(Image: Guinea Hen)
Happy Thanksgiving Day!!

TODAY: High pressure moving off the U.S. east coast is yielding over night winds from the east along the immediate coasts well before sunrise. Expect these to die down some though before sunrise. Regardless, a very mild morning is in the works with a nicely warm Thanksgiving Day under widely scattered cloud conditions to prevail. Enjoy!

FRIDAY: Decaying cold front, at least on its southern tail end will be entering the Panhandle Friday as it oozes south in an every weakening state of affairs on its Central and South Florida approach. It will remain warm, but a better chance of clouds may inhibit temperatures from getting as warm as they otherwise could with a nice SW wind prevailing all day long. Chance of showers increases by early afternoon as the front enters North Central Portions of the state...mainly north of a Vero Beach to Tampa Bay line. Likelihood of showers slowly inches up a few percentage points by late in the day and through/over night.

SATURDAY: More clouds continue as the front makes its pass over Central Florida Proper sometime in the late morning to early afternoon. Little impact other than a wind shift, slightly cooler air, but continuing the clouds all day with rain-showers remaining into the evening. Not an all out rain affair by any stretch of the imagination. Just a very small chance at that in fact. But any little bit would help.

SUNDAY: Clouds and showers clear out a little bit; however, the chance of onshore moving rain-showers once again develops much like it was like on Monday. Temperatures in the afternoon from Sunday on remain in the upper 70s along the coast to near 80 well inland.

NEXT FRONT: Right now, a more potent front is being portrayed to emerge into our picture around the Wednesday time frame as was noted on Tuesday's post. This one looks like it will over all be a more of a weather maker across the boards, but not a full out winter blast as previously feared in my post the other day. But the change in temperatures will noticeably be greater than what we'll have with the Friday/Saturday system described above.

Mild Weather Into the First Week of December (?) !!

Image: It has been said that cats have built in weather barameters. Hopefully StormChaser shown above is not 'seeing' something we'd not like to see...(brrrr...)

SYNOPSIS: Surface high pressure over Florida and into the Atlantic is holding fast, just as it did all summer. Gradually deepening trough of low pressures is taking place over the western and central portions of the country, and this general trend it now appears will continue for the next week with minor perturbations creating some forecast problems for folks in those parts.

TODAY: Mild and warmer with only intermittent periods of partly cloudy skies, but for the most part it's starting to look sunnier today than the past few days of recent times. As such, afternoon high temperatures will reach 80 degrees away from the immediate coast (at least) with no chance of rain north of a Vero Beach or Ft. Pierce to Sarasota line.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Cold front approaches from the west but High Pressure holds its ground in a most self-assured state of affairs. What previously looked would be a relatively (compared to recent weeks) strong passage of a cold front now appears to have little bearing on the weather for Central and South Florida at all. The finer details will be closely monitored as the days approach in a more realistic fashion, but for now no big deal weather to come this way for quite a while. Looks like the weakened front will pass over in almost a totally decayed state, providing for some clouds and maybe some on-shore falling ocean showers in its wake once the easterly component winds become re-established.

- THANKSGIVING: Nice and warm and no rain other than some light showers - warm

WHENS A BIG CHANGE TO COME: At this point, it appears the ridge will hold fast over Central and South Florida into the first week of December. Over night low temperatures will be dictated by the surface wind direction, speed, and amount of cloud cover during these days to come. But all in all, completely sane temperature wise so no need to break out the quilt (again) or ski masks unless you plan to rob a bank.

At this time, it appears that a big change in temperatures could occur as all the cold air to the west and north of Florida finally sinks south as the high pressure weakens, but this would be into the first week of December. Now is the time to prepare for the inevitable arrival of winter. But maybe, just maybe, it might never really arrive . Never happen of course.

Final Portion of a Tornado Story

Image: RARE photo of a tornado in Conway, Arkansas from the book "Weather Made Clear", 1965, A taken on April 11, 1945. I LOVE this picture!

In a previous post I stated it would be my late post about the story, but due to little weather through Thanksgiving other than weather like Saturday and Sunday I decided to conclude our talk of intrigue, as written below. The weather today will be a bit breezy and partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with a continued chance of an ocean rainshower, but for the most part should be a little nicer than Sunday as I think the 'worst' is over. VERY WARM on Thanksgiving day with a high in the low to mid 80s and partly cloudy skies. Very very little chance of rain.

Here is the last segment:

There came a tremendous jar, the floor slid

viciously under my feet, and I was almost thrown down. My hat, which I had not

removed,was yanked off my head, and all around objects flashed upward.

I sensed that the roof of the house was gone.As I gained footing another

jarring wham caught me,and I found myself on my back over in the fireplace,

and the west wall of the room right down on top of me. The "whams" were

just that. Instead of being blown inward with a rending crash of timbers, as

one would expect of a cyclonic wind, the side of the room came in as if driven

byone mighty blow of a gigantic sledgehammer. One moment the wall stood.The

next it had been demolished. The destruction had been so instantaneous that I

retained no memory of its progress.

I was standing, and then I was down, 10 feet away. What happened between, I

failed to grasp or to sense.

By a quirk of fate I was not seriously injured, and as soon as I had my

senses about me I clawed up through the wreckage, and crawled around and

through the hole where the east door had been. I could tell by the bluish

white light that the roof and ceiling of this room were gone also. I almost

ran over my four-year-old daughter, who was coming to see about me.

Grabbing her up I was instantly thrown down on my side by a quick side-shift

of the

floor. I placed her face down, and leaned above her as a protection against

flying debris and falling walls.I knew the house had been lifted from its

foundation, and feared it was s being carried through air.

Sitting, facing southward, I saw the wall of the room bulge outward and go

down. I saw it go, and felt the shock, but still there was no sound.

Somehow, I could not collect my senses enough to crawl to the small, stout

back room, six feet away, and sat waiting for another of those pile-driver

blasts to sweep the rest of the house away.

After a moment or so of this, I became conscious that I was looking at my

neighbor's house, standing unharmed 100 feet to the south. Beyond I could

see

others, apparently intact. But above all this, I sensed a vast relief when I

saw that we were still on the ground. The house had been jammed back against

trees on the east and south and had stopped, partly off its foundation.

The period of relief I experienced,however, was a very short one. Sixty feet

south of our house something had billowed down from above, and stood fairly

motionless, save a slow up-and down pulsation. It presented a curved face,

with the concave part toward me,with a bottom rim that was almost level, and

was not moving either toward or away from our house. I was too dumbfounded

for a second, even to"I was looking far up the interior of a great tornado

funnel. . .it. . .seemed to be partly filled with a bright cloud,which

shimmered like a fluorescent light."

I tried to fathom its nature, and then it burst on my rather befuddled brain

with a paralyzing shock. It was the

lower end of the tornado! I was looking at its inside, and we were, at the

moment,within the tornado itself!

The bottom of the rim was about 20 feet off the ground, and had doubtless a

few moments before destroyed our house as it passed. The interior of the

funnel was hollow: the rim itself appearing to be not over 10 feet in

thickness and, owing possibly to the light within the funnel, appeared

perfectly

opaque. Its inside was so slick and even that it resembled the interior of a

glazed standpipe. The rim had another motion which I was, for a moment,too

dazzled to grasp. Presently I did. The whole thing was rotating shooting past

from right to left with incredible velocity.

I lay back on my left elbow, to afford the baby better protection, and

looked up. It is possible that in that upward

glance my stricken eyes beheld something few have ever seen before and lived

to tell about. I was looking far up the interior of a great tornado funnel!

It extended upward for over a thousand feet, and was swaying gently, and

bending slowly toward the southeast.

Down at the bottom, judging from the circle in front of me, the funnel was

about 150 yards across. Higher up it was larger, and seemed to be partly

filled with a bright cloud, which shimmered like a fluorescent light. This

brilliant cloud was in the middle of the funnel, not touching the sides, as

I recall having seen the walls extending on up outside the cloud.

Up there too, where I could observe both the front and back of the

funnel,the terrific whirling could be plainly seen. As the upper portion of

the huge pipe swayed over, another phenomenon took place. It looked as if

the whole column were composed of rings or layers, and when a higher ring

moved on toward the southeast, the ring immediately below slipped over to

get back under it. This rippling motion continued on down toward the lower

tip.

If there was any debris in the wall of the funnel it was whirling so fast I

could not see it. And if there was a vacuum inside the funnel, as is

commonly

believed, I was not aware of it. I do not recall having any difficulty

inbreathing, nor did I see any debris rushing up under the rim of the

tornado,as there surely would have been had there been a vacuum. I am

positive that the shell of the twister was not composed of wreckage, dirt or

other debris. Air, it must have been, thrown out into a hollow tube by

centrifugal force. But if this is true, why was there no vacuum, and why was

the wall opaque?

When the wave-like motion reached the lower tip, the far edge of the funnel

was forced downward and jerked toward the southeast. This edge, in

passing,touched the roof of my neighbor' s house and flicked the building

away like a flash of light. Where, an instant

before, had stood a recently constructed home, now remained one small room

with no roof. The house, as a whole, did not resist the tornado for the

fractional part of a second. When the funnel touched it, the building

dissolved, the various parts shooting off to the left like sparks from an

emery wheel.

The very instant the rim of the funnel passed beyond the wreck of the

house,long vaporous-appearing streamers,pale blue in color, extended out and

upward toward the southeast from each corner of the remaining room. They

appeared to be about 20 feet long and six inches wide, and after hanging

perfectly stationary for a long moment, were suddenly gone.

The peculiar bluish light was now fading, and was gone abruptly. Instantly

it was again dark as night. With the darkness my hearing began to come back.

I could hear the excited voices of my family in the small backroom, six feet

away, and the crunching jars of heavy objects falling around the house. The

tornado had passed. There the edge was doubtless high off the

ground and went over without doing any damage. Quickly, real daylight

commenced to spread in the wake of the storm, and how good it did look!

And how astonishing! I had come to believe, in those few long minutes, that

the tornado had struck in the nighttime.

It was now about 3:06 p.m.Luck was with us that day. The only injuries

sustained by the family were a severe gash in my boy's arm and a scalp wound

on my own head. The rest of the district did not fare so well. The tornado

cut a swath through the southern part of the city, killing and wounding

upward of a hundred people, and doing property damage of over five million

dollars.

Hope you all enjoyed this.

Unexcitingly, Unenthusiastic Weather Underway

Image: Sunrise Panorama Photograph Taken This Morning

Nothing much really to write about so we can leave this one short and sweet. High pressure in the mid levels almost directly overhead at 6000 ft and just to the NNE above that is producing weak subsidence in a somewhat dry atmospheric environment other than in a shallow layer from the surface to about 7K (0-7000 feet). Above that altitude, the winds are from the WNW advecting a much drier air layer overhead. At the surface, high pressure is over eastern Georgia and the Carolinas.

TODAY: Continued east wind with gradually increasing, though shallow, moisture will swallow us whole today. The net result will be advection of a modified marine layer across the state and comfortable afternoon temperatures. Clouds will come in off and on in patches and an isolated rain shower could make landfall anywhere from Daytona to South Beach Miami/Dade area, but the greatest likelihood of precipitation appears to be from Ft. Pierce to Cape Canaveral from 1pm -8pm. However, should this even occur, it will be a short and only light duration...although a brief moderate rain could fall from the utmost, heaviest of clouds. With "should" "could" or perhaps "would" (of desire) be stressed. Overall though, rain free.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: Same deal as far as winds and temperatures goes. Highs near 80 and lows near 60, with winds slowly weakening and veering more southeasterly throughout this time frame. Rain could occur at any time, unlike a summer pattern when we have the afternoon thunderstorm variety type rainfall.

THANKSGIVING DAY: Partly cloud and quit warm with a high in the low to mid 80s. A cold front will be across the Panhandle by morning but will have little direct impact as far as rain chances goes.

FRIDAY: Best chance for rain anytime frame, particularly from sunrise-5pm. NW winds will be fast of the heels of the passing cold front Friday night as it blasts on through South Florida by shortly after sunset. Rain chances will then end with lows falling into the mid-50s. Not really that big a deal.

NEXT WEEKEND: Air mass begins to modify once again with temperatures returning to seasonable norms.

No Big Temperature Cool Down 'Til After Thanksgiving

(Image: High pressure dominates the eastern U.S. Coast today and tomorrow (except parts of Maine). Shown is the NAM based forecast for this afternoon, indicating an ENE breeze off of gradually modifying waters of the Atlantic to overspread the state from the east. Florida and the extreme SE U.S. stays high and dry as parts of the state remains in drought).

TODAY: High pressure has built down the entire U.S. East coast (other than parts of Maine) as a second cold front cleared the state late yesterday. Skies cleared rapidly over Central Portions around 12-1pm as the front moved south and north winds picked up a tick or two. Such will be the case today as well as winds veer more toward the NE-ENE and weaken a small bit within an hour or two after sunset. It will be a nice night for a rocket launch, if it can permissibly make the lift off no holds barred.

TONIGHT - SATURDAY: A mild night overall tonight with maybe a few clouds. Light ENE-E winds will gradually moisten the lowest levels of the atmosphere so that with full day light we could see considerably more clouds than what will be present today. Heck, by later in the afternoon we could see an isolated coastal sprinkle over any Eastern side city, but they should be wide spread if at all existent.

SATURDAY NIGHT- SUNDAY: East winds and mild afternoon temperatures. Lows in the low-mid 60s right at the coast and cooler inland with afternoon highs just below or at 80F degrees. It should be noted at this point that the NAM model is painting a possibly wet period for Brevard and Indian River Counties on Saturday, but as always seems to be the case, this is probably well over done. So in essence, the weather will be pretty much the same old status quo of past days of recent times with a sprinkle possible. We'll have to be watching this though.

SUNDAY-THANKSGIVING: No cold fronts. Just a continued marine-influenced type pattern with mildly cool nights and pleasantly warm afternoon temperatures with chances of rain decreasing even more Monday-Wednesday. Thanksgiving looks like it will be pretty nice, with maybe some marine stratocumulus.

There could be a big change in store for the days following Thanksgiving Thursday. Meaning, a prolonged period of very cool weather after one day of decent rain chances. We can nail down the details though as that time draws nigh.