"Three Front Week" (aka "Three Dog Night")

IMAGE: Shallow surface boundary clearing the state (SOUTH) with upper level dry air already fully in place well aloft. This image shows generally the location of the shallow surface boundary (South Florida) which is dictating the wind direction and slightly dew point air (Central). The low pressure area is shown off to the east of Florida. The true front now approaching is shown solid.

TODAY: Windy this afternoon, with partly to mostly cloudy skies early with rapid clearing to widely scattered clouds within 1 hour of noon time as the second, true cold front crosses first the I-4 corridor and then Beach Line Alley during lunch time, continuing to South Central by late afternoon. In deed it is there, if you have any doubts just investigate the upper 20F degrees morning they had from the Western Panhandle to Tallahassee.

The true front crossing Central around noon time is a reflection of the mid-level trough location as well, and to some degree the upper level one (although slightly behind the former) during today and into tonight. Mid-level speed max of winds aloft round the base of the mid-level trough during the course of the day during the normal 'peak heating' hours of 12-2:30pm. Given the coincidental timing of drier air gradient, peak heating, and winds aloft, (all of which will generate a prime, but brief cold air advection pattern); mid-upper level vorticity (energy) rounding the base of both through early this afternoon through early this evening (which will increase mixing)...as well as with strengthening of the surface low shown in the image with high pressure building in from the west across the Northern Gulf of Mexico...could be windy today. Wouldn't be surprised to see the wind really start to pick up around 1pm with gusts up to 32-38mph from the WNW-NW for a view hours through 5:000pm, mainly over the intracoastal waterways and near the coast. This is stronger than I'm seeing forecast officially though, but I was tempted to think the wind could get even stronger then this. For now, we'll leave it as "there will be a good breeze today", totally good day for Kite or Para-Surfing.

Temperatures will level off early near noon, if not sooner...then take a couple degree fall after 2:30 pm as the winds filter in the much drier dew point air and flat out colder air as high pressure building in from the west filters those temperatures down from the north along its leading edge.

TONIGHT-TOMORROW: High pressure along the northern Gulf of Mexico and Deep South continues east, then takes more of a ENE-NE trek across South Central Alabama and Georgia tomorrow by which time that low pressure area to our ENE will be totally out of the picture. Additional, the mid-level trough will be lifting back to the north. This combination will relax the pressure gradient and in turn the wind speed significantly, most notably late night and more so after around 3am. Daybreak winds Sunday should be from almost due north around 10-13mph with chilly morning lows.

No change from yesterday prognosis in regards to temperatures. To repeat them, widespread mid-upper 30s Central, near freezing North and west of I-4. Of course freezing far North Florida across I-10, which might as well be known as "The Freezer Door". Secondary cold spot down the Florida Ridge especially to where it tapers off at Okeechobee city and over to the WNW side of the Lake where just above freezing might be felt. Warmer east of US1 from KSC south through far east Brevard County with a low near 40-43F at the Beaches. Warmest of course all locales from West Palm south to the keys. Do we really need to repeat the temperature regime for that area in every post? Fact is, this is ALWAYS the warmest area.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Wind to remain below 10mph all day and gradually veers to the NE during the day under partly cloudy skies. Temperatures comparable to those of today in the afternoon, but with significantly less wind it will feel better to the skin. Cooler tomorrow afternoon far SE and Keys then today's afternoon will feel, considering the peak of cold air associated with this system won't reach down there until after peak heating today. All in all, Sunday will be a nice day.

MONDAY: Still no change from previous thinking. Warmer everywhere, but not tremendously so. In other words, not as warm (for quite some time now), as it was this past week. Lows inland in the upper 30s to mid-40s but closer to upper 40s to low 50s at the coast Monday morning (in other words, maybe just a few degrees cooler there than it was this morning).

TUESDAY and BEYOND: Remembering the discussion about whether the next system would come through around Tuesday with storms or Friday time frame with storms. Looks like BOTH were correct, but minus the storms. Believe at this time the air mass of Florida will have too little time to recover from today's system to support storms for Tuesday's system (not to mention a plethora of other factors that will be absent which would be required for them to manifest).

In fact, the chance of even a rain shower is looking pretty skimpy right now. Again though, 'another front this way comes' (week's end) with again a reinforcement of cool air with barely enough time to recover from that one on Tuesday/Wednesday. Don't see any big warm ups for South Florida either if one is looking for mid 80 degree readings again like was felt down there this past week.

Even anything above 76F at all might be hard pressed to be found anywhere in the state through next weekend. Rain chances look pretty 'weak', but I do see The Weather Channel showing the little icon with a thunderstorm on us for Tuesday, and this is likely seen on everyone's TV that lives in Central and South Florida this morning. I don't believe it though. I'd put a 'Cloudy" icon there instead.

In general, from today and beyond looks like a very cool mornings and mild afternoon temperature regime, predominantly dry. Could all change of course, but "Just for Today". To sum it up, Three Fronts this week: Today, Late Tuesday, Friday.

Limbo Today Before 36 hours of Winter Returns

Images: Low level relative humidity (very moist) overlapped with very generalized surface features at 11:45AM late this Friday morning.

RECAP: The image above by no means portrays everything that's happening in the atmosphere, but the greatest impact of the current state of affairs is captured in this image...mainly, moisture. We see the pre-frontal trough that crossed Central Florida bringing some periods of moderate to heavy rain and thunder has sunk south to around the line shown by the dashed red line (roughly). It will sink only ever so slowly further south through the remainder of the day now that it is caught up with parallel flow aloft to that at the surface.

Over Central Florida, at the low levels a very weak boundary consisting of mainly just a weak wind shift along it can be seen (drawn as a pseudo-stationary front) which technically is not necessarily correct, but it sums up the situation in any case. The boundary is awaiting mid-upper level support to move out, but that does not arrive in earnest until the overnight hours. There is zero low level upward forcing in this zone nor lifting mechanisms aloft to support any thing more than a random rain shower over Central the remainder of most of the day, but lots of the correct ingredients for clouds, as we can see.

Most of the South Half of the state (south of the stationary boundary) is encompassed in a broad area of low pressure of which a center is difficult to discern, that will remain there the remainder of almost daylight hours. Perhaps the best chance for any real rain and thunder will be over the Florida Keys toward Miami-Dade and up the East coast toward West Palm this afternoon ahead of the pre-frontal trough, but don't really see any severe potential there.

AFTER 6PM: Shortly after or near sunset, expect the broad area of low pressure over Florida to essentially flee its heat source (the landmass/Lake Okeechobee) in search of more food. That will be over the warmer Gulf Stream waters.

As such, the low will exit the state near West Palm/Ft Lauderdale and become re-situated and quite a bit more organized once it reaches and resides over that area, and then begins to follow the bread crumb trail (the warm water food source) northward to well off the coast of Brevard County. Otherwise, little else changes in regards to local weather. As the low begins to coalesce, we may see a brief period of a NE wind during the early evening along the coast, and another chance of rain showers as well where the stationary boundary is located within the backwash circulation of the off shore low any where from Brevard to Miami.

AFTER MIDNIGHT- 11AM, SATURDAY: Low begins to gather strength in place over the Gulf Stream with continued cloudy skies and a better chance of overnight showers but light in nature Who cares anyway, it'll be the middle of the night. Good for sleeping. Temperature to remain mild with a low near 60 Central, warmer South. By daybreak the low will be 'wound up' enough for circulation to have acquired a NW wind component across North and Central, continuing from the west to WSW South.

Showers ending by mid morning at the latest, Saturday, everywhere but far South and rapid clearing will ensue shortly after that time as well.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY:...But clearing comes with a cost, namely much drier, colder air, heralded across the peninsula by upper level support passing to the North which will in turn eject our low pressure area off to the NE beginning mid morning and out of the picture. Cool air advection all day from noon time on all day with a NW wind getting a bit overly breezy between 1pm -6pm due to the tightening pressure gradient between impinging high pressure from the NW and the strengthening low pressure area to the ENE. Temperature will change very little all day from that at sunrise, perhaps even cool a few degrees Central, but not so much far south where the coolest air will not arrive until later in the day.

By Sunday morning, winds will have died down significantly from the NNW at 10mph or less, but it will be kind of cold with wide spread mid-30s interior, upper 30s from I-95 to US1 and closer to 40-43F Barrier Islands. Closer to freezing north of I-4 and possibly on the North Shore of Lake Okeechobee (far interior south). Clear most of the day and cool with highs in the low 60s along the coast, a little warmer further inland and south.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: Another very cool morning, but not nearly as much so as Sunday morning, especially at the immediate coast with a light NNE - NE wind. Perhaps up to 10F degrees warmer than Sunday at the coast, but not quite the warm up inland. All comes at equal by early afternoon though as air mass modification begins in regards to departure of the coldest air. Our 36 hours of winter ends promptly at 11AM Monday morning.

BEYOND: Pedaling back to a possible active Tuesday as was thought would be the case two days ago. Don't believe a thing you hear today in regards to Tuesday/Wednesday just yet. Latest GFS has totally shifted gears with the last three model runs going from one extreme to the next, so not ready to bite on anything yet. Will weed through the mess with something better to chew on tomorrow morning. Regardless of this morning's run, though, I'd still be prepared for a wet period from Early Tuesday through the first half of Wednesday with a tremendous amount of details to be sorted, ironed, pressed, and neatly stowed.

One thing that does look consistent so far in regards to "BEYOND", the gravy train of rain producing storm systems passing over every 3-4 days looks like it may be about to reach its end, with the final system being the caboose. Will it go out with a bang?!! Maybe. Which could come, if it does, in the form of either a big thundery line of storms, or Winter, Part II OR, both or neither. Not going to sweat it out today though.

The Florida Current and Loop Current Affecting Florida Weather

Images: In first image, The Florida Current is shown in black, with the Loop Current sketched in red. Second image is the forecast for late this afternoon. I've drawn in weak low pressure areas in purple (not provided by auto-output), note the correlation of these lows with the warm, ocean currents shown in the first image where red "L"s have been drawn. I've also drawn in a black dashed line off the Florida east coast in the first image. This is the nuisance "inverted trough" often referred to in posts that forms above the warm waters of the current.

RECAP: Weak frontal boundary crossed Central Florida during the late afternoon. The immediate East Coast from near Cocoa Beach to Jacksonville was "backdoor'd" with a very cool wind immediately behind the boundary from the northeast (rather than the normal northwest post-frontal wind) which advected a very cool near shore marine layer to the coast lowering temperatures there into the 60s while others remained warm until well after dark to the west and especially the south where they've barely even been phased by the front, if at all. The layer of cool air over Central Florida is extremely shallow though (almost laughable), with the KSC sounding showing this morning (and last night) that it only extends vertically about 800 ft with warmer air and a WSW-SW wind still in place above this shallow inversion that had been at the surface preceding the front.

TODAY: Some fog (dense in a few patches) and low clouds should burn off pretty quick this morning with temperatures recovering everywhere to yesterday's levels, except along the immediate east coast north of Patrick AFB where a light onshore seabreeze will keep it a bit cooler along the A1A corridor. Otherwise, little 'action' to speak of in the short term. Do expect continued partly cloud skies though with ample low level moisture still in place and lots of sunshine minus high level clouds. Could even see a light rain shower move in along the west coast and/or form near the east coast (especially south) during the course of the afternoon and through the night, but of light intensity and short duration).

Meanwhile, a cold front will be located as shown in the image above. Do expect a very weak surface low (and likely more than one) as shown with the purple "L" on the map, as well as an associated pre-frontal trough (the dashed black line) to form today. Also note the other purple "L" off the Carolinas. Both lows are forecast to form over the warmer ocean waters of the Florida and Loop Currents, very common. The low off the Carolinas, of which many have either generated or developed there, will ride up the eastern seaboard again creating wintry conditions for the East Coast of New England as it converges with another system way out of the picture for Florida's concerns and beyond the scope of this blog today.

TONIGHT: Light sea breeze near the coast becomes south to SW after sunset once heating of the day has relaxed and thus the dynamics for sea breeze formation are lost. Cold front and preceding prefrontal trough/low(s) approach the west coast of Florida near midnight and quickly spread associated moisture in advance across mainly North and Central Florida such that an area of rain, and perhaps embedded, elevated thunder forms between the hours of 12am - 4am. By sunrise fully expect to see all of the North Half of Florida under some form of a rain/thunder/clouds mix along and north of a line from Tampa Bay to the Space Center, give or take 30 miles either side (north/south). Overnight lows mild due to increasing cloud cover after midnight in WSW flow aloft.

FRIDAY: Possibly more than one weak low pressure system, more likely 'impulses' (which we'll never see on TV) will run across Central Florida along first a weak pre-frontal warm front, then again along a pre-cold frontal trough. Best chance for thunder at time for the immediate Central Florida area seems to be from 4AM - 9AM, with mainly rain after that. Models indicate the actual cold front will perfectly bisect the state no later than mid-morning, and get hung up there for the remainder of the day as it becomes entrenched in parallel flow from the WSW aloft and blocked by high pressure over the SW Bahamas and Cuba. Likely additional impulses will ride along the boundary, generated above the Loop current and weakening after crossing cooler water before reaching the land mass of the Florida Peninsula. But they can transport moisture to continue cloud coverage and showers/rain through the day, even just behind the front. These lows may also restrengthen to a small degree after moving just off shore and entering the Florida current/Gulf Stream waters, placing the east coast in backwash circulation even within the cooler sector (behind the front).

Believe that South Florida or roughly from West Palm Beach to Sarasota and points south toward Lake Okeechobee will have a shot at thunder any time after 1pm through the remainder of the afternoon hours, especially further south where cloud coverage should not be as extensive early and better surface heating, and thus air mass destabilization can occur. The main threat from any thunder activity at this time appears would be marginal severe winds, but given that mid-level winds are not forecast to be above 30-40kts severe category gusts should be isolated. Lapse rates/ decrease in temperature with height / overall destabilization do not look very impressive, but Convective Available Potential Energy could reach 1000 J/kg (Joules per kilogram) which is equal to the amount of CAPE down there on Monday while they were in a Tornado Watch. Difference this go around is the wind profiles do not look, at this time, to be as favorable for potential rotation in any strong updrafts. But bears watching. Despite all the possible rains and maybe some thunder north half of the state, my eyes are more pegged toward South Florida Friday afternoon given the above.

Need to point out that the amount of time the front remains fixed across Central Florida is not in close agreement between the models I'm seeing early this morning, but it does looks like the front will gradually press offshore for all but extreme South Florida after sunset, but continuing to hang up parallel to the Gulf Stream offshore. With this in mind, and considering yet a nearly 'representative' surface low could form off the East Central Coast, we might be looking at continued cloud coverage along the east coast, and maybe even some rain showers until mid-late morning time Saturday until the next upper level kicker well to the north scoots the assembly en masse out of here.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: Brief period of possibly windy conditions overnight once the kicker, accompanied by stronger mid-level winds crosses over night, Saturday. Quick shot of cool air over night Saturday into early Sunday with a quick recovery leading into Sunday night and Monday as winds swing around to the SE once again preceding the next system that will have already been coming together in the West Gulf while the coolest air is over Florida.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Not waiting for latest guidance, as during the past 24 hours the GFS has varied in timing/intensity of the next system. Most significantly in timing. The latest run brings the next system in Monday afternoon-evening which looks awfully fishy (and faster than previous runs). As such, decided just to deal with the short term and let the next few model runs come closer together with what will be coming early next week, which of course will be addressed in every future post. May very well find that when the morning model run comes out that it will have doubled back on itself, or in other words, re-assumed its previosu train of numerical, cyber-reasoning.

Interestingly though, the next system isn't looking as 'threatening' as thought might come together, but then again, it's the one after that (Thursday/Friday) that looks even more so than what Tuesday's appeared it ever would be. In other words, the conveyor belt of rain producing systems continues through next week with storm systems every 3-4 days, but no real cold air of great significance/long duration. This will continue until the mean, positively tilted trough well aloft that dictates overall storm system motion moves east of it's current position which is diagonally across the country's midsection from the Great Lakes to the Desert Southwest.

Not to say we won't have a pretty cold morning or two, but nothing indicates prolonged entrenchment of cold air until at least NEXT weekend (not the one coming up).

"Six Day 'Hot' Bed" For Possible Future Storms

Images: (1) Circled area in Gulf shows the potential breeding grounds for more storm systems through Tuesday. This image is a forecast for 7pm (EDT) Thursday. (2) Radar image from 6:45AM this morning as pre-frontal trough passes across Central Florida

Neither last night's model runs, nor this morning's, grasped or are grasping "current events" even as they unfold. I originally had all kinds of images to share today, but deleted them all as things are "Not" verifying faster than they occur. To keep it simple, I included just a radar image captured from Weather Tap at 6:45AM (2nd image) and a general area that I expect to be hearing about during the course of the next 3-6 days from time to time as a 'hot bed' for surface low pressure generation beginning tonight through Thursday and again Monday/Tuesday time frame (first image). These system will not only affect Florida, but much of the east coast to Maine in days ahead.

RECAP: A pre-frontal trough (of sorts) passed through Central -South Central Florida this morning and is currently near the Miami-Dade area. Meanwhile, the weak low pressure area that was shown yesterday in the Northern Gulf has been absorbed in a mid-level short wave trough passing well to the north as expected. In review, other than the fact that the brief rains this morning were from a pre-frontal trough, the origins of it are a bit perplexing.

My guess is that it is the boundary I had sketched out yesterday across North Central Florida as a weak, stationary front (which I surmised we'd never hear about on TV as our old warm front from Monday). As the mid-level trough passed to the north the boundary was pushed back south (and through Central Florida) accompanied by weak low level convergence with the moisture already in place across South and Central Florida (with the added bonus of a warm day on Tuesday) contributing to a line of low topped convective type showers as the boundary entered the region of warmer dew point air. It had its benefits though. Other than a brief rain before sunrise, it cleared out the fog and low clouds which could have otherwise lingered into early afternoon, with the net effect being sunny skies and a warmer early afternoon rather than a lingering cloud deck as was feared would occur yesterday.

TODAY: The true front, be it as it may, is almost over my apartment as I write and will make additional progress south through the remainder of the day. WSW breezes early are now westerly behind the boundary and will likely become more WNW-NW during the course of the afternoon under partly cloudy skies once the actual weakening cold front crosses. Almost no affect on temperatures tonight other than further north where it will be cooler. Winds over North Florida are already from due North behind the front. No temperature issues Central and South Florida. The front may never cross the tippy tippy toe of the state south of Miami proper, but rather wash out completely and/or pull off to the east in a 'side swipe'.

With this in mind, expecting the same wind shift locally as high pressure across the Deep South presses from west to east (to our north) overnight in what you might have heard on TV as a "Very Progressive Pattern", which simply means there is no blocking pattern in place to dam weather air masses up in one general area leading to days on end of the same weather conditions. Yes indeed, the weather is changing fairly quickly nowadays and will continue to do so through Tuesday.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Winds overnight swing from NW-NW-NE- and finally toward the east to southeast by noon, Thursday keeping overnight low temperatures pleasant at the coast as the next front approaches. Things already get sketchy from here in regards to thunderstorm chances. But we will see a weak surface low form along the next front in the Gulf (which might be so weak or indiscernible we'll never hear about it) which will cross the state Friday much like what occurred on Monday. But Thursday is "adjust and realignment' day...in preparation for Friday with no weather issues, although we might see more clouds near the coast due to weak onshore circulations.

Pressing on, during Friday wind profiles as we look higher up in the atmosphere will not be veering with height as was the case Monday (will not be conducive for rotating updrafts/i.e., twisting winds). But, as it stands now, we will have some respectable mid-level speed sheer as a low level jet forms from WSW-ENE overhead and increases to the 30-40kt range right across Central Florida during the afternoon and evening (Friday) but with close to nil thermal instability. Net result would be some heavy rain showers and maybe some thunder accompanied by non-severe strength wind gusts in down drafts of heavier showers, most likely along a line running from Tampa Bay to Cocoa Beach north to I-10 (the North half of Florida) during the time the approaching surface boundary (cold front) meets the strongest mid-level winds from the WSW described above. This scenario bears watching though, but currently severe weather chances (in the form of wind gusts) are minimal. The chance for strong storms pretty much diminishes entirely south of a Vero Beach- Sarasota line. This is based on morning model runs, so things could/can change.

Otherwise, would have loved to include sketches of the upcoming events for Friday and leading into next week, but it would take a novelette and publishing contract to get all that information in. In general, I think we'll have a somewhat elevated warm front running across the state very close to where the one sat on Monday (just to the north) by Friday daybreak. No temperature issues, but day time highs might not be as warm as advertised on TV due to cloud cover, especially on Friday. South Florida, no problem.

SATURDAY: Even bigger question mark, "he says with an exclamation mark". Will it get all THAT cold Saturday morning? Once again, we see a delay in the arrival of cold air, and like the previous delay the coldest air is not as cold as previously advertised by data once it does arrive. Will it ever actually get here?!! (Maybe not at all far Southeast Florida and the Keys...at least hardly notable down there).

Probably yes, but I'm not believing any thing until the Thursday/Friday system actually moves out. The consensus is, there is no consensus. But front should clear by Saturday noon if not sooner with now the coldest morning on Sunday. Either way, it's a short 'cold spell' followed by a very very quick swing/shift in wind directions 'round the clock in prelude to the next system which will likely be festering in the far Southwest Gulf/NE Mexico/Far Southern Texas since Sunday and just waiting to get shoved into the warm Gulf waters accompanied shortly thereafter with favorable dynamics for more cyclo-genesis (formation of a surface low) and more fun-n-games. Maybe we can thank the warm weather in the Desert SW for all of this.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: Just took out the trusty Magic 8 Ball (the one I keep here by the computer when in doubt of the GFS model, which by the way is often)...and it again reads, "A word of the wises, be prepared for surprises"....as eyes look toward Tuesday on the calendar.

Not ready to put a gold star on that day yet in indication that "something wicked this way comes", it's way too soon. In closing today's long winded post I'll reiterate that we can expect to hear about "The Gulf Of Mexico" a lot in coming days. If not, shame on them...

Little Change Through Early Thursday - Pleasant Temperaturess

Images: Forecast for 2pm EST today. Note low pressure near the mid-Atlantic coast (Florida's storm yesterday), very weak low in eastern Gulf, an obvious cold front near the Mississippi River (hint: no worries here from that one), and more importantly low pressure over the Desert SW region (remember that area).

NOW: Strong but very shallow inversion on local and surrounding atmospheric samples (soundings) showed up nicely at 800 ft. this morning as noted in the supplied image above by the green arrow I've drawn on the image. Near full saturation below the inversion and mixing due to stronger mid-upper level wind just above this shallow/moist layer is responsible for wide spread low cloud ceilings and fog across the state early which is rapidly breaking up as I write.

SYNOPSIS: As provided, we see the low pressure area that finally crossed the state during the evening and exited just north of Daytona Beach is working up the eastern seaboard. This low is being energized by an air mass of Pacific and Subtropical origins (as opposed to last week's system which was of Subtropical and Arctic origin which eventually made it cold in Florida and snowy in the NE). Net result is that the mid-Atlantic is receiving rain near the coast (instead of snow) and a mixed bag of precip (precipitation) near the coast further north as the atmospheric temperature profile of the atmospheric attempts to adjust to the changing temperatures overhead. Humorously, one location where all the mixing of precipitation types was occurring reported "precipitation of unknown origin' this morning, funny.

Now that the system has cleared Florida, there does remain a very weak low in the Gulf as pictured with a weak boundary (the former warm front) drapped across North-Central Florida which weakly joins at the hip with the system moving up the coast. The 'warm front' has wrapped around the low pressure system's north side bringing just warm enough conditions to turn sleet to rain as the mixture of Pacific and Subtropical air tries to undercut and/or over-run the area up there that has been cold and experienced recent snows.

We also observe from the satellite image that around the low itself in the Gulf there is very little cloud cover, yet some light rain showers have come ashore Florida's west coast between Yankeetown and Crystal river and are passing somewhere between Gainesville and Ocala. This is an indicator of the boundary's presence (that I've sketched in) as well as the low pressure area (benign as they may be). It's unlikely you'll see these features on TV.

Cloud cover/fog over the peninsula is rapidly breaking up, so I do believe that the majority of the afternoon will remain partly cloudy (perhaps very briefly mostly cloudy at times once any heating in cloud breaks abets in supplying subsequent additional cloud formation) with all the low level moisture remaining in place and strong sunshine; otherwise, cloud breaks or sustained sunshine will permit afternoon high temperatures to reach the low-mid 70s and mid-upper 70s further south, maybe even an 80F or two far south.

WSW-SW wind all day with no rain chances Central (beyond those scant few further north), and perhaps a few showers far SE near Miami Metro. The boundary across Florida will remain there through Wednesday afternoon until a kicker (the cold front shown) absorbs whatever is left of the low as that front pushes east and lifts north simultaneously.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: Little change with low clouds/fog again possible overnight with comfy temps. Low of 55F-60F, and another day of high temperatures close to today's. Continued light west wind and partly cloudy by noon.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING: Front shown in the image passes mainly to the north as the supporting upper level trough located just along/off the U.S. East coast relaxes (looses its southward extent). In doing so, the chances for fog and low clouds Wednesday morning does not look as good, but this could change. Otherwise, no big temperature changes or rain, although it bay be a bit cooler early Thursday morning inland minus the inversion and overnight cloud cover.

THURSDAY: Remember now the low pressure area in the Desert Southwest. This will be our next local trouble maker beginning daybreak Thursday but of greater worthiness of note all day Friday. Mild again Thursday morning, with a scant chance of a coastal drip but no big deal just about any time. Partly cloudy with a light southeast wind gradually veering to SSE by day's end. Coastal temps the coolest in the afternoon with the now onshore component wind established, but warmer away from the coast and South Florida. Continued mild overnight, especially as I'm expecting a better chance of cloud cover to develop in the already never fully dried out airmass over the state (at least not for long enough for the environment from recovering fairly rapidly).

The system in the Desert Southwest will be gathering moment as it joins forces with a system of Pacific origin and is forced eastward across the East/Central Plains and Deep South. The front enters the far western Florida Panhandle overnight Thursday into Friday.

FRIDAY: Expecting that at day break, the front will be located across the Florida Panhandle with lots-o-clouds over much of the state in varying degrees and heights, particularly Central and North Florida. Rains over the Panhandle and perhaps some rumbles of thunder. Rain chances and prolific cloud cover increase across the state during the day, again namely North and Central. Big rainfall totals not anticipated nor is severe weather, although some thunder is possible. Perhaps a 40% overall coverage a measurable rain once all is said and done between sunrise-sunset. Front could be located roughly across the Central Peninsula at sunset, and crossing all but extreme South Florida overnight with drier/much cooler air to follow. Probably not as warm on Friday as today-Thursday due to cloud cover. Mainly mid-upper 60s, cooler north and, as usual, warmer south from West Palm Beach to across Lake Okeechobee toward Ft. Myers.

SATURDAY: Very cool day finally (not that this is a good thing) gets here after having our nice break from the cold. But not too bad nor for very long. Yeah! Saturday appears at this time will be the coldest of the weekend from sunrise to sunset with lows by morning in the low-upper 40s, warmest East Central and South, coldest Interior Central/North/and West toward Punta Gorda due to the fact that the wind will be quick behind the boundary to acquire a NW-NNW wind component, sparing the Barrier Islands from the worst of it for Central and the gradually weakening evolution of cold air infringement farther south and east from West Palm to Miami especially in regards to morning lows down that way. But it will remain very cool Saturday afternoon with highs in the low-mid 60s, mid-upper 60s south. Most cool north of 520 and points north with a NW-NNW wind of 15-20mph during peak heating.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Another sort of cold morning inland, but local outlets (such as Orlando channels) will advertise it being colder than the Barrier Island counterparts will feel. Like our last system, the first to warm will be from Cape Canaveral south along the A1A corridor as winds swing around to onshore overnight toward sunrise Sunday.

SUNDAY: Milder morning at the immediate coast with a low closer to 50-52F, perhaps an upper 40 especially north of Satellite Beach..with continued a bit chillier along and west of US1. Afternoon to warm by a good 5F degrees by afternoon.

BEYOND: The ever changing Magic Eight Ball this go around upon a shake, reads, "A word of the wises, be prepared for surprises (around Tuesday)". It might be seeing an evolution of events to unfold much like what occurred yesterday across Florida (and as last night's GFS hints at). Too soon to say...

Tornado Watch All of South Half Of Florida

Quick Micro-post: Two tornado watches have been issued for South Half of Florida, and as expected the severe threat has shifted further north and now stretches south of line running from Tampa Bay to Titusville. The watch is in effect until 7pm, as hypothesized the time constraint would be in the previous post. A tornado was spotted near Port St. John with a debris cloud visible by a certified spotter.

Rotating/Severe Storms Still Possible South/Central Florida Today

Images: Forecast Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) Values for 4pm, Storm Relative helicity values for 4pm, Current Tampa Vertical Azimuth Display (VAD) from Doppler Radar, Current LDIS plot showing Low Level Wind Shear. Note the shear values near Tampa Bay as storms were in this area at the time.

NOW: Surface low pressure in the East Central Gulf now in place this morning well WSW of Sarasota at sunrise will make slow progress initially ENE-NE ward through early afternoon. There appears to be perhaps two definitive 'fronts' (per se) of warm frontal nature extending east from the low, the first is a slightly elevated warm front stretched from Tampa Bay to just north of the Kennedy Space Center. The more defined surface warm front is across South Florida. In looking at dew points, 60F dewpoint air is now as far north as Cape Canaveral along the coast with a SE surface wind taking shape, with low - mid 60F dew point air over South Florida. Lightning strikes are occurring both along and north of a line from Tampa Bay to Orlando -Sanford along the secondary warm front with more around the keys and into the Gulf along the other boundary. Activity is moving ENE.

TODAY: We see in the RUC forecast that the greatest helicity values are restricted to along and north of the warm front, whereas the greatest surface based instability is south of the warm front in the warmer air - makes sense. In an organized severe weather event these two features would normally be closely overlaid which will not be the case today. Either way, we see that CAPE values in the 500-1000 j/kg air will be south of a line from Tampa to Titusville at 4mph (in this forecast from the RUC model) as the directional wind shear values cross east central and NE Florida late afternoon along and north of the slightly elevated warm front described above.

The thing that has my interest the most is that the surface low may linger in the Gulf slower than what overnight model runs have depicted. If this is the case, the warm front now over South Florida will have time to 'jump' north to a North Tampa Bay - Titusville line during the midafternoon hours. This would jive with the forecasted higher CAPE values extending that far north as noted above and as shown in the first image. Again, note the helicity values/location for the 4pm time frame per the last RUC model output.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has South and South Central Florida in a 'slight risk' for severe weather today with tornadoes possible. Believe this line on the east side of the state 'could' (in my mind' be taken north a bit to KSC considering that richer dew point air (and as such, higher CAPE values) coincident with high helicity values rotating along the warm front and over running this air mass coupled with backed surface winds (particularly at the coast) could possibly all fall in line between the hours of 2 pm -6:00pm as the low pressure system moves in.

It is important to note that, as is typical when a storm system approaches and features become more discernible, that several spokes of energy will rotate through, with the whole configuration in constant 'morph mode'. In fact, as I type, storm activity on radar has changed tremendously over the past hour , with some passing over the Orlando NOW. All activity so far has been along and north of the most northern 'warm front' and is just missing Central Brevard in passing just to the north by not too far at all.

In short, best stay advised for the strongest of activity any time over South and Central Florida from 1:30m - 7pm (discounting the Keys where some activity is already in progress), with a narrowed down time range of 1pm - 5:30pm. South Florida will have more time to destabilize due to the fact that a great expanse of rain coverage is not in that area at this time, but by the time the peak of destabilization is reached there winds may become more unidirectional with height except along the East side of the state, regardless, speed shear will be in place supplying storms greater potential to gain vertical upward momentum (rising air currents). Additionally, thermal instability, as relatively minimal as it may be forecast for today in comparison to a big severe weather event, might be even less due to cloud cover. Still, some severe weather cannot be disregarded as a very real possibility.

TONIGHT: Looks like the core of the worst potential for a strong storm(s) will have passed within one hour after sunset and thermal instability is lost due to lack of sunlight/heating all areas with all rains clearing out overnight, last to exit the east side of the state.

TUESDAY/BEYOND: Not much change from yesterday's post with two more fronts to cross Central Florida with significantly less impact than today's brouhaha. Fog areas or low clouds possible in the morning as a high pressure bubble passes over head behind the system, with a west wind on Tuesday and remaining pleasant in regards to temperatures. Will refine the outlook for the remainder of the week tomorrow, considering the more immediate short term, and might add continuously evolving and on-going weather scenario now in progress through the remainder of the daylight hours.

But, if interested, the outlook in regards to temperatures is looking rosier (warmer) , even from yesterday's post. Same low temperature regime in regards to locations of the coldest air remains, but now even warmer with mainly 40s in the coldest spots Saturday or Sunday morning with the east coast from Cape Canaveral to Miami (and the Keys) remaining the warmest over night. Coldest North Central-North Florida.

Rotating Storms/Severe Weather Possible Early Monday Afternoon/Evening!

Four (4) images included in this post. Descriptions of each follows below:

(1) The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast for tonight at 7pm. We see a suspect area in the southern gulf, somewhat of an inverted trough near the Loop Current awaiting mid-upper level energy now crossing Mexico to be enhanced. Another low pressure system near the Texas Gulf Coast which created rains over East Texas yesterday which have spread into Louisiana this morning. Also note the trough mentioned in yesterday's post near the Cape. Still there today/tonight. (2) Forecast for 7am Monday morning. The suspect Gulf area is now being over-ridden by energy out of Mexico and surface or low level shortwave is enhanced and is moving ENE along a developing warm front across Central Florida (3) Current local temperature depiction shows the trough off shore which is being enhanced offshore by mid-level energy dropping through the upper level trough also offshore which runs down the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. Temperatures up and down the Florida east coast are nearly uniform, in fact the temperature at Cape Canaveral is one degree warmer than Ft. Lauderdale this morning, but mid/upper 50s are widespread. Some cities in the panhandle are below freezing still though.

(4) The Storm Prediction Center's (SPC) forecast for Monday shows a chance of severe weather over the south half of the state (south of the green line) is of no surprise as this was noted as a possibility in yesterday's post. The fact that this area is now in a "Slight Risk" (for severe weather) indicates an increased potential and/or confidence level that severe level category weather affects could be experienced within this area. The treat at time is in the form of wind gusts and/or tornadoes, but not severe category hail size.

TODAY: Very little change from yesterday with all the same features in place. We have the trough still in place off shore, which has organized a bit better as was suspected would occur due to it being continuously fed by mid-upper level energy from short wave troughs that have been crossing the Great Lakes region and the NE U.S., then dropping into the overall trough aloft located offshore. Over our heads, we still have a very stout inversion now located around 760mb or about 6500ft aloft. The atmosphere below that level continues to be fed/enhanced with increasing moisture and warmer dew point air which prevented overnight low temperatures from dropping much after 10pm last night over Central and South Florida. This inversion will remain through the day, and as such a cloud deck will persist off and on throughout the day in lower portions of the 'mid-levels' where moisture accumulates as clouds at the inversion level. Little temperature change from yesterday, with the extent of cloud cover dictating temperatures namely over Central Florida where clouds are currently most prevalent as well as proximity to bodies of cool water. Winds very light with a light sea breeze developing close to the coast this afternoon less than 10mph.

TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING: The low near the Texas coast, albeit very weak, will continue east toward North Florida while the 'suspect area' in the South Central Gulf will be enhanced by mid/upper level energy generalized in description as a 'short wave' passing over it. As that surface region with supporting features passing over it becomes better organized so too will frontal boundaries. The main player being a warm front forming and lifting north from the Florida Straits to Central Florida by daybreak. This boundary finally merges with the trough that has been just offshore the Cape since Friday which will be the 'final starting point' to get the show rolling in terms of some active weather Monday afternoon and evening across the South Half of the Florida Peninsula. Remember my stating yesterday that boundary off the coast would eventually prove to be important which was why it was brought to attention (?).

Very mild temperatures again overnight with partly cloudy to cloudy skies with a SE wind developing ahead of the formulating northward moving warm front overnight. Clouds will be enhanced by isentropic lift (escalating upglide) along/ahead of the northward moving warm front within the increasingly juiced up air mass over the South Half of the state. Stratiform light rain (non-convective/non-thunderstorm type) could form along this boundary, especially on the west side of the state which will be stretched eastward toward Orlando overnight, but for the most part I mostly expect denser/greater extent of cloud coverage at day break, at which time the temperature should be close to 56-60F degrees. Warmer over South Florida.

MONDAY AFTERNOON EVENING: Weak low passes across North Florida with their own mixed bag of tricks (mainly in the form of rainfall and some elevated thunderstorms well north of the warm front), whereas south of the warm front storms will have a much better chance of becoming surface based and stronger, moving from the W-WSW while surface winds will be from the SSE-S.

As the Gulf System/shortwave trough approaches and crosses the state, strong winds aloft near 50 knots at 20,000 from the WSW will overspread the area while surface winds will remain from the south. This will result in 40+ knots of shear in effect, which will be locally enhanced where the low level jet of 30-35kts intersects the warm front. Net effect, as the warm, moist air rises through the veering atmospheric wind profile with height, storms that do develop within these rising currents can rotate as they build in height and rise through these low level columns of varying wind direction. Rotating, long lasting storms (supercells) and bowing line segments (which can be seen on radar imagery as a 'bowed' line) will be possible. Both entities are capable of producing wind gusts over 55mph and/or a tornado in the case of tomorrow's set up. This is why the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), seeing this potential tomorrow, has placed the south half of the state within a "Slight Risk", at least as of last night around 2A.M.

Again, the greatest risk for surface based storms will be south of the warm front, which appears will get about as far north as perhaps a line running through Brevard/Volusia County line westward toward Tampa Bay or a bit north of there before it runs into the more predominant area of high pressure that has resided across the Deep South and most northern portions of the Gulf of Mexico since Friday (which, by the way, has been responsible for the persistent cold mornings over north Florida and those locations in south central Georgia and Alabama.

Outside of the potential for some severe category weather/twisting winds, I'd say the chance of receiving measurable rain (0.01" or above) between sunrise and sunset Monday statewide is dang close to a 90% coverage of this area within that time frame. Some areas could get over 1.5" inches where more than one heavy storm crosses and/or where moderate rainfall persists. We could use the rainfall over much of Florida where severe and exceptional drought conditions currently exist and have been spreading in coverage since late spring.

SPECIAL NOTE: Any severe weather that may happen to develop, especially closer to Central Florida Monday afternoon/early evening, will likely be embedded within light rain and thus not be easily visible by looking outside. Thus, if interested, it is best to monitor local TV networks for what may be on the approach. If you hear thunder with each subsequent roll louder than the previous, chances are you are within, or close to, the path of an approaching storm which 'could' contain a tornado. The first visible sign of a storm's approach, should this end up being the case, will be a rapidly darkening sky toward a westerly direction, and with a fast storm motion anticipated, by the time one sees the dark sky it's almost already there!

BEYOND MONDAY (TUESDAY): Leaving this very brief due to much greater elements to tackle in the shorter term, but all other elements remain ALMOST status quo from yesterday's post. As noted, we again will not see just one front go though with a cool down, but instead see perhaps 3 fronts before colder air arrives which at this time might be just short of a week from now (quite a way down the road).

Tuesday, after this system moves on east and somewhat phases with the more northern low pressure that will cross North Florida off the Carolina Coast, winds will be westerly with a clearing sky; clearing enough, that is, to allow enough sunshine in to permit temperatures to be warmer behind the system than they will be on Monday ahead of it when clouds/rain/storms will be present. Additionally, along the east coast, the onshore wind component will be absent, thus colder Atlantic shelf waters air will not be advected to the A1A corridor. With a lot of ground moisture in place and a clearing sky overnight, and a brief pocket of high pressure passing overhead in the wake of Monday's system, morning fog could be widespread across the peninsula through mid-morning Tuesday. Otherwise, Tuesday looks rain free.

WEDNESDAY: Timing still looks in place for the second front to cross the state on Wednesday, which again could be accompanied by a period of just light rain, but more clouds seems more likely, but still no temperature falls with this front either except over North Florida, just some drier air throughout the atmosphere. It appears the first system on Monday will not scour/dry out the atmosphere entirely or enough to disregard the possibility of shower development, but chances are slim.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY: Final front finally makes it through with a brief period of cold air, but nothing as bad as what we've felt with the past two cold blasts. Things are looking up. Each model run has been delaying the cold air, and then when they do bring it in it's not as cold as the previous model run nor lasts as long. Most notably over the the South half of the state.

(*I'd like to thank the reader who sent a link to the interactive Google maps based GFS weather model. I received your message in a responding comment to yesterday's post, but I'm not able to identify the sender. If you are reading this blog post today, thank you!)

Going from "Benign" to "Beastly" By Monday? 'Bears' Watching

Images: 1) Forecast for Sunday night; 2) Forecast for tonight 3) Current Cape temperatures; 4) graphic depiction of 7:45AM Saturday morning temperature. Note the warmest air from Daytona Beach Shores along A1A to Miami and across the Keys

TODAY: Benign weather pattern will remain in place through the weekend with very mild temperatures along the east coast tomorrow morning once again with comfortable afternoon temperatures in the low and maybe some mid- 70s. Inverted trough from the Cape and off to the NE was evident yesterday and remains in place today through Sunday. Note the warmest temperature at sunrise in the image above is at the eastern most tip of the Cape. Local LDIS picks up on the trough in the wind and moisture fields nicely (with greatest low level moisture along it , penetrating Brevard Country), and model guidance has as well. This trough may play a bit of 'forecast havoc' in regards to afternoon high temperatures, namely they may be warmer then thought. Should it manifest as a bit more 'defined' surface winds may remain ever so light backed from the NW today allowing the mercury to rise minus an onshore, cooling component.

NOTE: This trough, benign as it may be now, will be a big player into Monday as we will read below.

The KSC sounding shows a strong inversion at 5000 ft (roughly 850mb) with moisture trapped just below the inversion. Very weak wind fields are in place under the inversion level while westerlies prevail above it and strengthen with height. Cape temperatures yesterday morning were 10F degrees warmer from those of Thursday, and nearly 10F degrees warmer again this morning from Friday morning. Once again, temperatures fell very little after 8 or 9pm as was the case the night before. In short, temperatures are moderating and the cold snap is gone for all but North Florida.

Might add, the low in Tallahassee yesterday was 18F (Crestview was 15F!!), and the low there this morning was 20F. Additionally, Tallahassee finally broke 50F degrees for the first time in 5 days yesterday. Just a side note if we thought it was cold over Central and South Florida.

Otherwise, low level ridging continues from near the Texas Big Bend and across the Deep South as a subtropical jet streams from Southern Texas eastward to nearly across the Florida Straits while the main polar jet stream remains to the north of Florida within an upper level trough along the eastern U.S. seaboard through mid-week. Main storm impulses at this time continue across the Great Lakes and the Northeast States.

SYNOPSIS FORECAST: Most importantly for late in the weekend, a mid-level impulse passing over Mexico crosses Southern Texas on Sunday, providing for thunderstorm chances there tomorrow and continues along the subtropical jet, crossing the Central Gulf of Mexico during the overnight hours into Monday morning.

Meanwhile, the inverted trough closely snugging the Cape since yesterday remains in place during that time and becomes better organized as mid-level impulses crossing the NE and mid-Atlantic States within the upper level trough enhance it. The trough remains in place though due to high pressure to its east. This trough, benign as it may currently be now, becomes a major player (as previously noted above) during the day Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.

SUNDAY: Mid-Level, subtropical impulse crosses Southern Texas during the day and enters the Gulf of Mexico overnight into Monday morning and begins to strengthen, possibly manifesting as a weak surface low Monday morning in the Central Gulf. Locally, very little change from today with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s along and south of a line running from the tip of the near shore inverted trough and across the state to Tampa Bay. Periods of stratocumulus clouds possible at any time but rain free. Morning lows once again warmest along the east coast, with inland temperatures moderating tonight as moisture levels increase slowly. In short, tomorrow's high temperature will be close to today but with a broader expanse 70s northward.

MONDAY MORNING: Very mild morning once again with lows along the coast probably in the low 60s and cooler inland. Expecting rapid transition in the sky this day as the Gulf disturbance/impulse/short wave/low (?) moves ENE and begins to integrate with the tail end of that inverted trough still remaining near the Cape over the weekend. This is why I noted earlier that the feature could become important. Somewhat of a pseudo warm front will form in advance of the approaching system, which by the way I fully expect to be exhibiting lightning strikes in the Central Gulf at sunrise, Monday. High clouds well in advance of this system will likely begin streaming overhead well in advance of its approach system which will aid in keeping overnight temperatures warmer, but also hamper temperatures rises during the day.

LATE MONDAY MORNING BEYOND: Big question mark! It is appearing more assured that Central Florida, close to the pseudo warm front will initially experience overrunning cloud coverage and eventually rain fall by around noon time which could evolve into thunderstorms by afternoon and early evening as the wind profiles and veering wind profiles associated with the trough approach the west coast and cross what appears will be the Central or South Central Peninsula during the day. Just exactly where it will cross and its intensity remains yet to be unknown, so there is great uncertainty in how events will unfold during this time frame. It is possible we could be seeing strong/severe thunderstorms embedded within the rain zone anywhere from south of a line from Cape Canaveral to North Tampa Bay area, in other words...all of the South half of the state. The area of greatest threat will be narrowed in on more later tomorrow, and likely be watched intently by official outlets (the National Weather Service) come Monday morning. Be sure to tune in to your most favored weather resource before bed time Sunday night and especially upon awakening Monday morning!! We may see issuance of a severe thunderstorm watch, although believe at this time that the limited coverage of severe parameters amassing may preclude such.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: The impulse crosses Florida overnight Monday with a more assured surface low formation ongoing just east of the Cape as it runs along the trough that will have been in place there since Friday (yesterday). A cold front of sorts will following the front but with almost no changes in the temperature department. As noted yesterday, the next cold period would not come once again as one piece meal system. In stead, we may see a lull in rain chances after Tuesday morning and through out the day with the true cold front still on the approach for Wednesday. As was the case last time, most of the moisture will be swept out with the first system, but enough will remain for some light rainfall accompanying the front proper which is timed to pass early Thursday.

THURSDAY: With the second front crossing Thursday the atmosphere will yet to fully dry out, but it will be cooler Thursday with the driest of air to arrive sometime Friday, January 21st. I normally think of January 21st as being Florida's "cold core" time, or about the time that it's most assured to be cold here if one were to draw a date out of the hat. Maybe not so oddly, this is exactly one month after the time the sun is at its lowest angle (the first day of winter, December 21st) which jives perfectly with the time lag between the lowest sun angle and the coldest temperatures (1 month). Looks like this year will be no different.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Another cold event similar to this last one. Same temperature regime as well with one or two very cold mornings everywhere but the A1A strip from the Cape To Miami again escapes the worst with a prevalent NW-NNW wind regime under advection freeze (windy) conditions. Naturally, this is well beyond any scope of reality (in case this all reads as sounding like absolute 'truth'). This is simply what information is showing early this morning. I have not waited for morning weather model runs to make this post, namely because when I saw the overnight runs this morning there was no big surprises. In short, should this forecast come to fruition, then yesterday's comment about there being no cold air on the horizon was a bust. We'll see what eventually transpires.

IN THE MEANTIME: Watch for updates from all offices as we approach late Sunday. Monday will remain sketchy and become possibly briefly somewhat traumatic contingent upon how parameters evolve. Consider this a heads up on there being a true 'heads up' "Bears" watching...Grrrr!

"The Weather Critic Within" - Weather or Not

Images: 7pm temperatures tonight and 7am NEXT Friday morning at a glance. Not much change in this department as a gradual warming trend begins today through Tuesday from Florida to California.

SYNOPSIS: High pressure from the SE Texas Coast toward Louisiana is building ENE'ward across all of the Deep South today and this trend will continue through the weekend as it expands in areal coverage into the mid-Atlantic by next week. Warmest locales in days to come will be Central and South Florida, the northern Gulf of Mexico's southern border state regions (near I-10), much of Texas west to Southern California and up the California coastline to Oregon/Washington coasts.

RECAP: In a snap the cold air event ended overnight from Daytona south to Miami east of I-95 with the coldest air over North Florida south to Okeechobee (the interior) and over toward Punta Gorda. Remember this thermal regime, as it may very well hold fast in varying degrees for the next 7-10 days. Daytona registered a record low high temperature for the date yesterday of 47F, not surprising considering how 'cool' the intra-coastal of Brevard was yesterday. Temperature bottomed out in Cape Canaveral about 2 hours after sunset and held steady the remainder of the overnight hours, indicative that a change was in the offering for most of Brevard. High and mid-level clouds over South Florida (once again as was the case the night before) streamed over that region, holding temperatures up a bit overnight there.

TODAY-WEEKEND: High pressure at the surface will expand east and north from the southern Mississippi River Valley region and across the Deep South with the axis running initially over Central Georgia toward the FL/GA border at times in the low levels. Northerly winds near noon time veering to NNE-NE and eventually ENE and weakening through tomorrow as the axis settles in, relaxing the pressure gradient. Warmest overnights from Port Canaveral south to Miami and the Keys east of I-95 with ultimately the warmest from West Palm and south closer to the Gulf Stream's warm water influence. Coolest next few mornings remains well to the west and north of Brevard County, edging the Orlando area and over/southwest toward Sarasota. Morning lows in the low-mid 50s (coastal) with a gradual increase to mid-upper 50s; highs in the low-mid 60s North, mid-upper 60s South, warming to upper 60s (all) and some low 70s further south toward Miami before the weekend is over. Coolest mornings/warmest afternoons inland over the weekend with the area from West Palm toward Naples pretty much coming out even across the boards (warmest spot SW Florida near Naples). Coolest afternoons along A1A from SR 520 to Jacksonville.

No rain chances noted, although the North American Model is showing shower chances in the warmest area outlined above (from the 'Port of Canaveral' to the 'Port of Miami') beginning overnight tonight. Believe this is over done though, and will leave this as an indicator of periodic greater enhancement (vertical depth) of stratocumulus clouds instead.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Will generalize this time frame since there will be an opportunity for rain chances in the late-day Monday through Wednesday (at least) time frame. The trend has been to temper down coverage of actual rainfall as well as longevity, but it's too soon to tell if this is a trend or fluke. Outside of the rain chances, though, continuous mild/near normal or a few degrees below normal temperatures at times is the trend for everyone. Best chance for rain appears to be afternoon Monday through Tuesday, so obviously some fine tuning is required for a period that is still a good 3-4 days away. During late weekend a short wave trough riding across the ridge axis may result in a more northerly wind component for 12 hours or so and a minor temperature fluctuation accompanied by more clouds from the trend, but this impulse, should it occur, will have little other affects....and will likely occur unbeknowst to anyone outside of the "Weather Critics".

Rain chances will be associated with a cold front, or two of them, which will cross the state during mid-week in similar fashion to our last event. The first front bringing the rain chances then clearing out the mid-level, rain inducing moisture, with the second front bringing the more pronounced drier/colder air mass. The difference this time is that there will not be a surface low over the Northern Gulf traversing North Florida, but rather much further north. Correspondingly, all the thermodynamics and strong wind profiles ( and colder/drier air associated with ) stays further north as well. Looks like a Northern Plains to the Great Lakes winter to me for the next 5 days.

Side note: Thinking of taking up a new career. We have Food Critics, Movie Critics, Book Critics, Media Critics, Politically Based Critics ad-naseum...why not a Weather Critic!?

Coldest Today through Thursday Night - Gradual Warm Up Through Weekend

Image shows a forecast for 2 meter morning low temperatures Thursday morning. We see a vast expanse of freezing or near freezing degree temperatures over Central / South Florida toward Lake Okeechobee and west-southwest toward Sarasota/Naples. Warmest location Thursday morning from near Cocoa Beach south along A1A to Miami (increasingly warmer the further south one gets toward Miami/Venice/Keys).

TODAY: Morning low at my place was 40F while MLB was showing 42F with similar readings on the west side of the state at the same latitude. In comparison, the panhandle was in the mid-upper 20F's with much drier dew point air. Forecast of yesterday remains on track so not much to add this morning. Second cold front is still clearing extreme South Florida this morning with the final one, composed of the driest of air crossing the state today and also clearing the state by tonight. Driest and coldest of air for this event will occur (for the most part) Thursday morning.

But for today, little change throughout the day as a continuous stream of surface wind from the NW ushers the final 'front' through (consisting of greater extensive drying at all atmospheric levels more than anything else). There are some cirrus streams over head, but they will gradually shift south of Central Florida during the afternoon. Extreme South Florida has some stratus clouds abundant (being still ahead and along the second front). Continuous feed (cold air advection) throughout the day will keep the afternoon temperature very close to the 50F degree isotherm along 520 to Tampa Bay within 2-3 degrees, with mid 50s increasing to upper 50s further south and finally low-mid 60s across the Keys. Winds NW at 15mph perhaps gusting to 25mph along the causeways and near open bodies of water elsewhere.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING: Final thrust of the cold air arrives with advection freezing level temperatures very close to US1 at sunrise. The Barrier Islands should escape a short-duration freeze tonight with mainly mid 30s as a NNW wind blows down the intracoastal waterways along their length. Again, warmest along A1A from Port Canaveral - Miami and warmer the further south, but still pretty cold down there for them. Afternoon temperatures on Thursday will again be similar to what we will feel today, but do believe it will be 3-6F degrees warmer than today under full sunshine.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: Phase 1 of initially only gradual warm up begins, especially at the coast as winds become due north and eventually NNE-NE into Friday. Coastal lows in the mid-upper 40s but continued much cooler/cold in the morning west of I-95 over and down toward Sarasota. Afternoon high Friday in the low-mid 60s with some patchy clouds or close to 10F degrees warmer on Friday than what will be reached Thursday afternoon. The area around Miami may even see a rain shower before Friday is over, but that remains a big question mark in my mind with a great temptation to squash that notion altogether.

SATURDAY-MONDAY: Phase II warm up. Coastal lows by Saturday morning might not be much different from what the temperature will be at sunset Friday night up and down the east coast as winds become more easterly and eventually southeast during the weekend. Coolest afternoons east of US1 but upper 60s and low 70s will be the rule Saturday. Warmer away from the coast. No big rain events, or any rain at all for that matter through the weekend as the warming trend expands in coverage of real estate statewide returning to seasonable norms Sunday. Stratocumulus clouds likely to become an ever-increasing factor for afternoon high temperatures in some locations but extensive overcast conditions not anticipated currently, but does bear watching for the east coast from the Cape and points south as we go into the overnight hours of Friday into Saturday.

TUESDAY: Perhaps the warmest day yet with very mild, non-impact temperatures in either the freezing or sweltering category as winds shift from southeast to eventually southwest over night Monday into Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system. We should lose the onshore component wind on Tuesday which will permit us to feel the warmest temperatures, albeit cooler than west of the rivers due to the cooling affect of wind blowing across water.

"Un-Civil War" To Break Out NYC to New England - Country Enslaved by Cold Air

Images: (1) This image roughly shows the current synoptic situation. We see a low pressure system that departed NE Florida yesterday riding up the eastern seaboard just offshore getting reading to phase with what was a Central Plains System yesterday 2) Thursday morning temperatures (7am EST).

SYNOPISIS: Moisture laden low pressure that exited NE Florida yesterday is trekking NNE as a cold low pressure center crosses the Ohio Valley today. "South" will meet "North" just off the coast of New Jersey overnight tonight. The low pressure area just off the coast will become the dominant feature as pressures fall rapidly and 'bomb' out. Artillery will fall from the sky as a result! Both systems have plenty of moisture to work with and as such a broad swath of snow across the Ohio Valley and Pennsylvania will broaden during the next 24-36 hours, becoming most prolific in the purple shaded area where the combination of most abundant moisture, strong surface winds, and cold air combine in "Civil Warfare" of uncivilized nature.

Meanwhile, a series of short-waves will rotate around this complex war zone bringing colder and drier air into the Deep South as a series of wave intrusions rather than all at once. We see that by Thursday morning the war will have ended for the most part leaving a fast expanse of cold air casualties in its wake. Should add at this point (speaking of causalities) that those folks in the Deep South are in for it tonight. Given the recent snowfall, and temperatures in the 30s today and another front soon to pass, those temperatures will fall into the low 20s tonight which will re-freeze the melted snow making for dangerous driving (and in some cases walking) conditions there. The net result by Thursday is the much of the country will be enslaved by cold air.

LOCALLY: The first front that was in the Gulf of Mexico has crossed all but extreme South Florida today after lingering across Central Florida until mid-morning, where it is little more than a wind shift. This was Phase 1, mainly a wind shift and some drier air -- but not by much. North Florida is feeling the front much more though where temperatures in the low 40s have persisted. During the afternoon Central and South Florida will remain in somewhat of a 'lull' before the next front moves in around sunset with much cooler air following. Rapid clearing late this morning has ensued during the past hour but more high clouds could be on the way until the last and final front crosses later on Wednesday. No rain in the outlook, although some showers over extreme South Florida remain possible until the second front clears the state. The second front will cross Central Florida around or just after sunset bringing in drier low level air and much cooler air.

WEDNESDAY: Much cooler Wednesday morning with temperatures in the mid-upper 50s from North to South by afternoon and lows in the low-mid 40s, but considering the timing of the second front, South Florida from Lake Okeechobee and south won't realize the full impact of this front until after peak heating, thus it will remain relatively warm there tomorrow, albeit a bit cooler than today. High level clouds could become a problem as well for Central and South Florida until the final front pulls through which further complicates just exactly how warm it will be in both zones. But do expect mid-50s along 520 to low 50s along I-4 with upper 50s to near 60 from Melbourne and south. Much warmer South Florida Further complicating the forecast is that cold air advection will ongoing throughout the day, somewhat doggedly but nonetheless it will be occurring.

THURSDAY: The final front will clear Central Florida during the afternoon Wednesday allowing the driest and coldest air to finally move in. Looks like Thursday will be the coldest day 'round the clock' from sunrise to set with widespread mid-30s and the freezing line being teased all across Central Florida toward Ft Myers. Highs comparable to that of Wednesday, but colder over South Florida. At this time, do not foresee any nights with prime radiational cooling under near calm winds to occur for a wide spread freezing event although many locales could be below freezing for a time. It seems this will again be a 'spine of the state' event with NNW winds prevailing throughout the duration, which will advect cold air southward from snow and ice covered grounds now over Georgia. This looks to be much more of a 'spine of the state' cold event, favoring the west side as has been alluded to in the posts made several days ago now given what will be the prevailing NW-NNW wind direction.

FRIDAY: Another cold start to the day but not as cold as Thursday and a bit warmer in the afternoon, but not by much. Need to watch the Barrier Islands beginning this time frame for some clouds contingent upon a minor veering of the wind. Winds remain NNW becoming more northerly during the day, with a possible hint of NNE overnight. From Friday night and beyond the temperature and cloud forecast is nearly impossible to ascertain for the barrier islands especially south to Miami so will go so far as to omit this time frame out in today's post until a greater level of certainty is grasped. But in general, moderating temperatures will be the rule across the state with the cold snap ending.