Nicely Warm Most of Florida's East Coast - Rain Chances Finally Appear Next Week

Gigantic Hibiscus on the Loose

FORECAST THRU THURSDAY: No change from the post the other day. Surface ridge has sank south to near Metro Miami through the Keys during the past 24 hours. Shallow but strong low level inversion with moisture trapped beneath generated a good coverage of fog in some places, low clouds in other, early thru mid-morning across Central /South Central Florida which was quick to dissipate by 10AM.  Other than a few low topped skimpy-cumulus today, strong subsidence and SW-WSW flow from the surface and on up take inland temperatures on up to near those felt yesterday inland. The east coast along A1A may very well feel the low-mid 80s today as well, with a pocket or two of upper 80Fs or a 90F somewhere inland. A very late afternoon sea breeze might be felt only right along A1A or I-95 south of West Palm mid-late afternoon as 925mb flow at that level over South Florida is not as strong as over Central and North Florida, but either way it will be comfortable. More of the same tomorrow, although it appears that none of the immediate East Coast will receive a sea breeze. Additionally, with compressional heating still at play the forecast high temperature shown by the models might be getting under-played (they are showing low-mid 80Fs). In other words, expecting to see more wide-spread upper 80Fs tomorrow than today, and a few more locations reaching 90F with a WSW-W winds of 12-22mph during the afternoon.

THURSDAY/SUNDAY: Dissipating cold frontal boundary over the Deep South will essentially be sapped out as it skirts along the east coast of the state. The only impact on the state will be to end the all-day land breeze set up of today/tomorrow, taking afternoon coastal temperatures back down to upper 70Fs /low 80Fs, inland in the low-mid 80Fs. Very light afternoon sea-breezes and light to calm winds over night with little in clouds.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Pretty big changes in store from Sunday night through into the first week of April as the synoptic scale blocking weather pattern of the past 10 days starts to break down.  To early to say with just exactly what/when the net affect will be realized over Central/South Florida, but based on the models trends over the past several days the rain/thunderstorm chances will appear in earnest beginning Monday, more so on Tuesday. Several other opportunities for needed rainfall appear throughout the first week of April as well. We should all be happy for the much needed rainfall as we enter the peak of Fire Season. All of us, that is, except the pyro (s) that has (have) been setting the fires across parts of the state. Apparently they find Brevard County to be of most formidable prey.  It seems there's always fires near Malabar/Palm Bay  or Port St. John/Canaveral Groves every season doesn't it?!

Spring Has Sprung (In the Northern Hemisphere)

Spring has sprung, the grass has ris’,

I wonder where the birdie is?

There he is up in the sky,

He dropped some whitewash in my eye!

I‘m alright, I won't cry,

I'm just glad that cows can't fly!

FORECAST: Nothing new from Saturday's post. The backdoor boundary, or rather the leading edge of higher surface barometric pressure pushed through Central Florida yesterday as expected. The remaining boundary is now near Miami  where some showers remain along and just ahead of it near the Keys. High pressure at the surface will continue to influence the weather over Florida today under mostly clear skies, although some stratocumulus appear will continue to come ashore over South Florida.

Temperatures maybe a few degrees cooler inland, but the A1A corridor won't notice a difference with breezy onshore winds this morning abating through the afternoon North Central and North Florida. Coastal lows will remain in the mid-upper 60s overnight, warmer south toward low 70sF. Inland lows in the mid-upper 50Fs.  Winds calm down all areas overnight though to near calm.  

The ridge axis over Florida tomorrow will sink south toward South Florida Tuesday. Expect a delayed sea breeze on Tuesday, warmer on this day away from either coast. No rain. The ridge will be breaking down and sinking south in response to a trough pushing through the Central and Northern Plains States which will be pushing east bound, but the main energy from this system is well to the north. With the ridge breaking down and the axis remaining south...

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: ....Expect again another delayed sea breeze on Wednesday, and possibly no sea breeze from near SR520 and north as the remaining tail-end of cool front sinks south into Florida. Thursday will be about the same with no sea breeze most guaranteed with a warm, west wind of 15-20mph during the afternoon. Warm with highs in the low-mid 80Fs with some cumulus clouds.  Might see some upper 80Fs as well! Spring has Sprung!!The front now appears will cross through with zero fanfare Thursday night, accompanied by a wind shift after dark Thursday night. 

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Winds swing around the clock very quickly from the north to a southerly direction going into Friday and through the weekend. Warm Spring Breaker weather. Expect crowds and traffic at all beach thoroughfares with beach access roads filled to the gills. Possible rain/thunderstorms enter the picture late Monday/Tuesday time frame.

Clear Sky (Florida) for Rare Super Perigee Full Moon - Equilux vs Equinox Revealed

Looking to see the Super Moon or more correctly the "Super Perigee Full Moon" tonight? Along the East Coast of Florida the moon will rise at 8:56PM EDT this evening as the moon approaches its closest orbit to earth during a full moon cycle. The graphic notes that the moon will be 14% larger; of course, the moon is not any larger, it just looks larger due to its closer approach (perigee) to earth. Conversely, an apogee moon will appear much smaller. We can get a better idea of perigee vs. apogee from this second image.

It's much easier to see here that the perigee is closer to earth than the apogee during the moon's orbit.  All in all, we might not be able to tell the difference other than during the first 2 hours of moonrise (8:56PM) and again an hour or two before moon set, Sunday morning at 7:42AM. During those times it is closer to the horizon and points of reference such as trees, buildings, mountains, power poles, etc. create the  illusion of the moon being 'larger' most dramatically.  So, if you miss it tonight and happen to be an early riser it will still look pretty cool between 6-7:30AM Sunday morning above the western horizon.

Coincidentally, as the Super Perigee Full Moon sets Sunday morning, we will be entering the Vernal Equinox as the sun will pass directly over the Equator on its way to the Summer Solstice (June 20/21) over the equator at 7:21PM EDT (2321 GMT) Sunday night, the Vernal Equinox (or so it's called). See why this might be considered a "myth".

Found a neat piece of info this morning that explains why I wrote  "a 'myth' revealed" in the title of today's post (at least in my mind). I'd always thought, and maybe you did too, that on the first day of Celestial Spring that days/nights are of equi (equal)-duration (hours/minutes), but I noticed this was not the case by pure coincidence, about two weeks ago. So I did some research.

This time of equal day/night length does not happen during the equinox, but rather during the "equiliux". Our days/nights were of equal length more than a week ago (the days are now longer by about 9 minutes). Additionally, from a technical perspective, it might be better to refer to this time of year as the "March Equinox" rather than Vernal Equinox. Vernal is the Latin derivative of "spring" (and it will not be spring in the Southern Hemisphere), so that faulty reasoning is obvious to the reader; for your info, equinox is Latin for 'equal night'. 

Again, although the word equinox is often understood to mean "equal [day and] night," this is not strictly true. For most locations on earth, there are two distinct identifiable days per year when the length of day and night are closest to being equal; those days are referred to as the "equiluxes" to distinguish them from the equinoxes. Equinoxes are points in time, but equiluxes are days. By convention, equiluxes are the days where sunrise and sunset are closest to being exactly 12 hours apart, and like I wrote above, this has already occurred here in Florida (can't speak for the rest of the country, but I'll gander this will not occur until later in Spring).

And another thing! Said with a light heart and mind of course, as written in several posts ago, spring in many parts of Florida from the meteorological perspective already began a few weeks ago, when  from this writer's perspective and other schools of thought, the average high temperature is equal to or greater than 75F (which of course varies with where on lives in the state). On a side note, the same school of thought infers that summer begins when the average high temperature in Florida meets 90F. This  has to vary in regard to the temperature threshold for the immediate coast though from my observation, because this average high temperature is never met along A1A where average highs during the summer are usually around 87F due to the prevailing SE winds blowing off ocean waters. It is interesting that for the most part, our big 'heat waves' (loosely written), occur not in summer but rather in spring. You know, those years when it gets near 100F degrees. These almost always occur before June 21st (the first celestial day of summer).  Based on this observation combined with the 'average high 0f 90F' reasoning,  Florida summer probably begins sometime toward the last week of May - First 10 days of June.

Now, that is based from a temperature perspective. Another way to look at (not of one of which I've read), is to herald summer in by when the diurnal daily thunder storm cycle begins, which considers all the variable atmospheric requisites.

On to the weather outlook for the "Super Perigee Full Moon" and the first day of the sun's passage over the equator.

TODAY: No change from yesterday under a near clear sky and coastal sea-breezes. Highs along A1A in the upper 70s, warming to the low to mid 80s away from either coast. Warmest NE and SW Florida.  A back door boundary ("cold front") is on the approach from the N-NE tonight.

TONIGHT: Looks to be clear or nearly so for moon viewing. Coastal lows in the low to mid 60s, warmest coastal SE Florida/Keys. Inland lows in the low/mid 50s...although there have been a few small pockets of upper 40s just about anywhere in the state the past few mornings. Could of fooled me, but they are occurring. Even in far South Florida.

SUNDAY: The March Equinox occurs at 7:21PM EDT, Sunday evening. But before that time, North through South Central Florida will herald in spring with of all things, a cold front? No fears.  The front will move into Central Florida sometime in the morning/early afternoon. It will initially pass through undetected to the casual observer, but will be followed a few hours later by stronger ENE winds of 15-25mph Sunday afternoon, as well as some clouds.  Model guidance is painting some light rain coverage over the East Coast of Florida, first to the North then spreading south toward Miami by late afternoon/early evening. However, due to the fact that we will remain atmospherically dry right up to and through frontal passage (at fire weather criteria in South Florida for instance), believe the moisture provoking 'rain' on the models will manifest as stratocumulus clouds. Sunday afternoon will be cooler everywhere by about 5 degrees, probably most notably inland though.  SW Florida will be the warmest tomorrow pre-frontal passage and furthest from the developing easterly flow (and likely without a cooling west coast sea breeze there).  Breezy all day Sunday beginning early afternoon through 8-9pm, with winds gradually relaxing overnight and becoming a faded memory by Monday. No significant changes to overnight low temperatures.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Back to status quo as high pressure regains control and winds relax. Fire weather season conditions showing  true colors once again as we approach April...albeit, hopefully minus the fires. High pressure at the surface and aloft almost directly overhead with light overnight coastal land breezes, and afternoon sea breezes. Temperatures running like what you've felt the past few days already.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Minor weather change in store, mainly for the East side of the state.  We are entering another meteorological period influenced by a negative phase of the  NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), this was the case for much of our cold weather periods this past winter...YES, we can say winter in the past tense by now. Feat not, it won't be getting real cold, at least not yet per guidance. Prior to the next frontal passage, the East Coast will likely lose the afternoon sea breeze effect, so high temperatures on these two afternoons (or maybe only one of them) will reach the low-mid 80Fs next week prior to frontal passage.

Front appears will pass through dry, but have low confidence at this point to declare this as fact. But rainfall of any noteworthiness declaration will be absent.  For now (as of this morning), will watch Wednesday/Thursday time frame though for  somewhere in North Central to South Florida, because I'm not quite ready to discount the possibility of a good shower or maybe a thunderstorm mid-late week (next week). Long time from now, but that chance looks pretty skimpy.

Pi Day To Yield Circular Areal Coverage of Pleasant Florida Weather Across the Radius

Like a Barbershop Quartet these Hibiscus Blooms Sang in Four Part Harmony this morning, celebrating Pi Day and  the bounty of sunshine to continue today with very comfortable temperatures round the clock

So what does that title of today's post mean anyway? Today's date is March 14th (3.14.... =  Pi). In a mathematical notation, it looks like the image below. This 'constant' (when rounded off to 3.14) is used in innumerable mathematical equations in all walks of science, including meteorology, the most common of which perhaps is the calculation made to determine the area of a circle (pi times the radius squared). Bored with the weather to resort to this discussion?..."Oh Pi, Yes!":

TODAY: Surface ridge axis across the South Central peninsula at the surface and across North Central in the mid-levels today through Tuesday. Net effect, near calm wind at night and light land breeze toward daybreak through mid/late morning all of North Central and North Florida with sea breezes both coasts in the afternoon. Near clear skies with some patches of stratocumulus perhaps advecting on shore only South Florida/Keys. Later today, could start to see some high cirrus clouds passing over Central and North Florida toward mid-late afternoon, not affecting South Florida. Temperatures running in the lower 70Fs along A1A north of Ft. Pierce, with perhaps some mid-70s prior to delayed onset of sea breeze. Otherwise, upper 70s / low 80Fs interior everywhere. Warmest SW interior Florida.


TUESDAY: Really not much change, except the surface ridge axis will relax a bit further south as a weak disturbance moves through Georgia approaching the Mid-Atlantic. Patchy ground fog over night interior. More clouds again likely tomorrow, mostly of the high cirrus variety.  Warmest over SW Florida running the diagonal line through Orlando to Jacksonville. Might not get a sea breeze from Daytona Beach and north to JAX tomorrow with a stronger SW flow. Delayed sea breeze more likely tomorrow East Central, so looking for some mid-upper 70s here tomorrow. Otherwise, little change for Southeast Florida where coastal temperatures will be just below 80F, hitting the mark along and west of I-95.


WEDNESDAY: Little change continues the regime. Looks now like a good chance of a  late afternoon line of cumulus will form on this afternoon (and perhaps Tuesday as well) from Orlando north due to sea breeze convergence, favoring  more toward the east side of the state and approaching I-95 by 6pm; any showers with this would be restricted to north of Daytona as it appears, of extremely light nature (although models are not showing rain at all).  Either way, no impacts.  Wind on Wednesday of much more southerly nature, but light.


No weather worth mention in the extended as well. Normal to just above normal temperatures. Immediate coast Central and all of Southeast Florida will have lows in the low-mid 60Fs overnight, interior in the mid-upper 50Fs. Highs all regions in the low 80Fs, coolest along A1A up and down the coast, ultimate coolest along A1A from Sebastian Inlet and north where highs will linger around the 74-77F mark during the afternoon sea breeze. Calm at night.

Superstorm Anniversary and Daylight Savings Time - Check Smoke Detector/Weather Radio

State radar image from the SuperStorm Derecho Event of March 12-13, 1993. Details follow in the information below. This storm impacted not only Florida, but the entire eastern seaboard with high winds, tornadoes, coastal storm surge, and blizzard conditions. At the time, this event was unprecedented and remains so to this very day.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY FORECAST:  No changes from yesterday's post. A bit warmer today all areas, coolest at the very east coast north of Vero Beach, with highs in the low 70s. Mid-upper 70s elsewhere and warmest far SW Florida. Partly cloudy to most cloudy at times from West Palm Beach and south through Monday.  Light onshore Sea breeze this afternoon all coasts will make way to near calm winds toward sunset. Overnight lows a bit warmer than last night, but still chilly (especially inland).

TUESDAY: Coastal stratocumulus clouds could affect the east coast as far north as Titusville. Short-wave trough crossing Dixie  provides reason to introduce high cirrus clouds into the mix, especially Central and North. Probably not quite as warm on Tuesday as those that will be felt Monday due to expected clouds. No rain Central and North, put possible sprinkles far South and the Keys. Temperatures anywhere South Florida today through Tuesday will be lower than official forecasts indicate (more than likely) where clouds are most found.

Celebrating or begrudging Daylight Savings Time today? It's a good time to check the batteries in your Weather Radio as well as those in the smoke detector, and see if your computer time corrected itself.

Below are some recaps of the intense severe weather events recorded from the Super Storm that occurred beginning last night (March 12th). The magnitude of which has yet to be met for the Southeast States.  Read on, it's interesting:

The Southern Survey Team
The southern survey team found that for the most part the information disseminated to the
public, the media, and EMOs was timely and accurate. There were a number of separate
hazards created by the storm for those in the southern states affected by the  Superstorm.
As the storm gathered strength over the Gulf, the first threat was from severe thunderstorms
and tornadoes. As it neared landfall, high winds and coastal flooding became the primary
hazard and finally, as the system moved up the Atlantic coast, very cold temperatures
became the peril.

The perception and response to these various threats were uneven, however. The lack of
personal experience with severe non-tropical storms resulted in a large number of people, and
some EMOs, failing to fully appreciate the seriousness of the threat.

For example, in recent history, severe coastal flooding has not occurred in Florida in storms other than hurricanes.  It must be noted that a winter storm of this ferocity was simply beyond the scope of
experience of anything the southeastern part of the country had faced in recent memory.The
subsequent lack of response led to difficulties for the populace in preparing properly for the
approaching storm throughout the southeast U.S., particularly in Florida. Many people and
some EMOs were simply unprepared for the event.



March 12-13 1993 - 2200-1430 - All Florida - Tornadoes, Thunderstorm Winds, Hail, High Winds, Storm Surge, Flood, Beach Erosion, Snow - The "Storm Of The Century" or "SuperStorm" roared across Florida
producing a variety of severe and unusual weather conditions for about 18 hours from late Friday the
12th through late afternoon Saturday the 13th.

A severe squall line raced eastward at over 50 mph ahead
of an intense low producing several tornadoes and strong downbursts as it moved through the state and
directly caused seven fatalities. This was followed by an unprecedented (for the Gulf Coast) winter
storm surge of nine to 12 feet in Taylor County, with storm surges and/or tidal and wind driven flooding
of five to 9 feet elsewhere along the Gulf Coast to the Keys. This was followed by a period of eight to
12 hours of high sustained winds of up to 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph, keeping tides much above
normal along the west coast and causing severe beach erosion in many areas. As colder air poured in
behind the intense low up to four inches of snow fell in the panhandle from north of Pensacola to
Crestview, and a trace to 3 inches of snow fell elsewhere across north Florida. Record or near record low
temperatures occurred over much of the state the following two nights. Total number of fatalities from
the storm was 47, including 14 from storm surge and flooding, seven from tornadoes and/or strong
downbursts, and four from high winds in the aftermath of the squall line. Eleven people drowned
offshore in the Gulf of Mexico after strong winds swamped or capsized ships (including seven crewmen
from a 200-ft Honduran freighter). Eleven others died during rescue operations and cleanup activities.
Total property damage was estimated at $l.6 billion. Details follow, first number shown for each heading is the date in March, followed by year and 24 hour time.

Date obtained from the NWS Melbourne historic weather events database:
12 1993 - 2338 - Levy Co., Chiefland - A tornado struck a home in which four people were asleep,
pinning two of them under a fallen wall and suffocating them. Two others were injured. A nearby
mobile home was destroyed killing its elderly occupant. The tornado went on to destroy or damage other
mobile homes injuring five more people, and knocking down trees and power lines.

13 1993 - Manatee County, Terra Ceia Bay - Thunderstorm winds -A man who lived on a houseboat
drowned while apparently attempting to evacuate the boat in strong winds.

13 1993 - 0020 - Alachua Co., LaCrosse - A tornado destroyed a mobile home killing l person and
injuring four others. Trees and power lines down. A few houses destroyed, one by propane explosion.


Howey-in-the-Hills and moved northeast striking Mt. Dora and continued northeast until dissipating in
Volusia County. A 5-month old baby boy was killed in a mobile home 10 miles northeast of Mt. Dora at 0050 EST. The mobile home was destroyed and two adults in it were seriously injured. In all 13 homes
were destroyed, 80 suffered major damage and 266 reported minor damage.

13 1993 - 0405 - Pinellas County, Clearwater - High Winds - Winds to 6l mph were recorded at the
Clearwater Pass Bridge. Two boaters in a sailboat were drowned when they apparently were pushed into
the bridge pilings and capsized.
13 1993 - Citrus County, N. Homosassa - High Winds -Two males were apparently washed overboard
from a fishing boat and drowned. Their bodies were recovered a week later.

13 1993 - 0420 - Taylor County, Coastal Areas - Storm Surge - A 10 - to 12-foot storm surge moved
into the coast destroying 57 homes. Ten people were killed, nine at Dekle Beach and one at Keaton
Beach.

13 1993 - 0452 - Dade County, Narrowrowanja - Thunderstorm Winds overturned a mobile home,
killing one person and injuring another.

13 1993 - 0530 - Hernando County, Aripeka to Hernando Beach - Flood - Flood waters about nine feet
deep inundated the coastal area with most residents in water chest deep. One person suffered a heart
attack and died attempting to evacuate out of the flooded area. 6l homes were destroyed, 3,300 damaged,
and 100 people evacuated.

13 1993 - 0530 - Pasco County, Hudson to Aripeka - Flood - Water at least 9 feet deep flooded homes
and businesses. An elderly woman drowned in her home.

13 1993 - 0545 - Levy County, Cedar Key - Storm Surge - A 9.5 foot storm surge was reported and 120
homes were flooded. An elderly male died while attempting to evacuate the flood.

13 1993 - 0600 - Pinellas County, Honeymoon Island - High Winds - A 38-ft fishing vessel was
swamped by 20-30 foot seas seven miles west of the coast. One crew member drowned and the other
was rescued by the Coast Guard.

13 1993 - 1035 - Broward County, Davie - High Winds uprooted a tree that struck and killed a person.

13 1993 - l134 - Broward County, Pompano Beach - High Winds caused a building to collapse, killing a
motorcyclist who was standing near it.

The Big Blue "Sky Stare" Today, Outdoor A/C Temperatures

Image: The forecast sky conditions for today.


TODAY/FORECAST : High pressure at the surface and mid-levels reigns supreme over Florida, sliding eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and across the state going into this afternoon. Overnight lows in some areas occurred within 2 hours of midnight either side last night.  Areas in far East Central saw a rise in temperatures during the hour the sun was rising, wasting no time to rid that location of the overnight chill. At 8AM the temperature at my location had already eclipsed the noon reading of yesterday.


High's today in the low-mid 70Fs state wide, maybe some uppers SW Florida as light NW winds early today become a NNE-NE mid-late afternoon 'sea-breeze type'. Coolest along A1A from Port Canaveral to JAX under clear skies, where  the high temperature will be reached earlier in the afternoon before wind shift. Possibly falling into the mid-upper 60Fs range (especially furthest north for the lower end readings) after 4-5pm.


TONIGHT: Winds become light and variable overnight with coolest temperatures along the coast expected between 10pm -2am. Lows in the mid-upper 50s, very close to 60F East Central along A1A after the early cool down. Otherwise, mainly upper 40Fs to low 50Fs. Clear.


SUNDAY: Warmer by about 3-5 degrees everywhere as winds become light from the ESE. High pressure ridge axis will be dead across Central Florida through Monday. Milder evenings, warmest up and down the A1A corridor from Miami to JAX. Coolest from Daytona and north during the afternoon, in the 69 - 73F range.


MONDAY: More pleasant weather with continued warming of overnight lows everywhere. Winds light and variable to near calm at times overnight with a light ESE wind developing during the day. Some stratocumulus  or cumulus humilis clouds SE Florida during the afternoon. No rains.


TUESDAY: For this day, will be watching (due to boredom) the state of Georgia and possibly Alabama for some odd ball, off the hook strong storms in the afternoon through early evening. Could see some strong storms from Atlanta south to far SE Georgia to near I-10 (Jacksonville) by evening. Expecting some cirrus clouds to impact Central and North Florida by afternoon sometime associated with the shortwave trough that will generate this activity. Keeping a second eye at this time toward the east half of I-10 this day, at least as of early morning model runs.  Sometimes these events this time of year end up being a much bigger deal than advertised or thought up until they occur, with some big surprises.  At time, the Storm Prediction Center is not expecting anything much to happen though. But could see The Weather Channel doing some good coverage of the activity come Tuesday afternoon/evening time frame.


BEYOND: Other than possibly a weak back door cold front going into Wednesday/Thursday time frame, minimal impacts. Maybe a light rain shower SE Florida (coastal) going into mid-late week. Otherwise, highs in the low 80s about anywhere inland away from either coast state wide.

Cool/ Breezy This Afternoon, Very Cool Tonight, Warmer Saturday Afternoon

Image shows current temperatures (roughly) at7AM this morning. Lines drawn in are my guess for  high temperatures this afternoon. The Red Line is the 60F isotherm. Temperatures south of that line will reach the lower 60Fs, mid 60s South Florida, with the ultimate warmest temperatures far SW Florida and Keys.

RECAP: Cold front has obviously cleared the state per clear skies, NW wind, and much cooler air. Temperatures this morning varied to near 30F at Crestview through the 30Fs North Florida with mainly mid-40Fs Central and upper 40Fs to low 50Fs South. Melbourne briefly fell into the low 40Fs earlier but has since rebounded a little bit.  


Otherwise, severe weather occurred yesterday over far SE Florida near Ft Lauderdale/Key Biscayne and surrounding areas in the form of strong wind gusts (one report of 70 mph) and two very brief, weak tornadic spin ups. Doesn't appear these were full bore tornadoes, but the circulation was evidently apparent enough to justify the official reports as "tornado".  Attached are some images from local data integration showing a few parameters 'bulls-eyed' far SE Florida at the time of the events.

 The first image is Storm-relative helicity, second is low level shear and surface winds, with the third showing sea level pressure. Granted, the values aren't exact, but the point here is to show that the event that occurred over far SE Florida was significant enough to show up on the network of information feeding into the system's depiction of these parameters.






TODAY: Nice day for the Delta IV rocket launch at 5:57PM (as of this time). Clear sky with the wind beginning to weaken.  The launch pad is located just to the right of the location of the previous Atlas Launch last week (if viewed from the south).  Expect the weather in Cape Canaveral at launch to exhibit a temperature of 57F degrees with a NW wind of 10-15mph under clear skies.


OTHERWISE: We can see from the temperature plot this morning that it was quite cool at daybreak. Expecting most of North Central through South Central and South Florida to be in the low to mid-60s this afternoon with the coolest locations to be near and east of Titusville and north along I-95 and east as well as all of far North Florida.  


As I'm typing a tsunami is expected to impact the Hawaiian Islands in the next MINUTE!  (side note). Horrendous video coming in from Japan of tsunami resulting from the prelim 8.9 Great Earthquake in Japan.


Breezy this afternoon between 11AM - 3:30PM with wind from the NW at 12-20mph, gusts in the 24-28mph range. For some folks yesterday over Central Florida, the temperature didn't get much warmer than it will be today, but yesterday was wet and cloudy, so all in all it might feel nicer today than yesterday out of the wind and in full sunshine. Will feel much cooler in the shade in areas that are in the wind. Winds will die down significantly after 4:00 PM.


TONIGHT: Following the overall coolest afternoon (today), tonight will be the coldest evening with lows in the low-mid 40Fs wide spread, with some mid-upper 30s thrown in North Central toward West Central west of Orlando, as well as some isolated pockets South Central. The immediate A1A corridor should be similar to that of this morning, but extreme South Florida will also feel more of the cold's impact. NW - NNW winds over night in the 5-10mph range east of the intracoastal, weaker far inland. Could find some frost North Central.


SATURDAY: (Side note - waves have begun to arrive at The Islands, impact unknown. It is only about 3AM in the morning in Hawaii at this time).  Saturday will start out as noted above, but warm into the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs. Clear sky and very light wind. Will assess the potential for cooler conditions along the coast from Canaveral and north, but at time appears the synoptic scale temperature grid/winds compared with the ocean temperatures will be nearly neutral, off setting any sea breeze cooling affects for the most part.  Thankfully, as the air mass will remain dry today through Monday, the winds will be near calm at times offsetting the otherwise increasing Fire Weather threat due to afternoon low humidity values. Soil moisture should have increased as well due to the broad expanse of rains yesterday and the evening before.


BEYOND: Cool mornings continue Sunday and Monday, each day progressively a bit warmer than the day before. Warmest afternoon  temperatures will be first noted over the South Half of the State and the Panhandle, filling in everywhere by Wednesday. No rain foreseen for the next 10 days at least as temperatures return to 'normal'.

Rainy Day In Store (not all day), Strong Thunder Possible South Central/South

 

Images: First image shows the current lightning activity as of 7AM focused around Tampa Bay and over the Gulf Of Mexico. Also shown in this image is where there is a small chance of hearing thunder today within the bounds of fuschia colors, within the light blue colors is where I'm expecting a better chance of general thunderstorms, and within yellow is where some stronger storms "could" occur today between 1pm -4pm.  Also included is the image from yesterday's post for today's forecast. Not too much of a difference between yesterday and today. The area in the second image over Volusia/Flagler was being considered for last night (yesterday). Indeed, some storms did approach this area between 8:00-10:00pm.

RECAP: Most everything unfolded as expected yesterday initially. The 925mb winds from the south overspread the western Panhandle and far south Alabama. Some tornadoes were reported in these locations as was expected might happen when those winds overspread this region.

We can also see there was a large number of strong to severe strength wind reports and damage related to those winds (where the little palm tree icons are). The stronger gusts over Florida are not aligned quite right. Those occurred primarily from near Orlando NNE toward St. Augustine where gusts were in the 40-50mph range (strong).

After the stronger winds aloft pulled out of the area over North Florida the squall line sank south as an Outflow Boundary minus the upper level support later in the afternoon. The storms over Orlando toward Flagler county were associated with sea breeze convergence induced storms and not the squall line activity other than up by St. Augustine.  The line could have also sank south as more of a reflection of colder air aloft sinking south, reflected at the surface on the leading edge by the well organized line of weak convection that moved into all of Central Florida later in the evening.

NOW: Thunderstorms are occurring as I type of the Tampa Bay region, with a broad area of light to moderate rain spread across most of North Central Florida at this time. Everyone over most of Brevard west to near Sarasota and north will soon be in the rain, some heavy, with some lightning (mostly aloft) by 10AM. Not expecting this activity to be strong early today. Actually, we see below the storms have already cleared the Tampa Region now that I go back and look one more time before making this post. Can probably discount any chance of thunder today other than where the strongest potential area was drawn in the image above.

TODAY: Most of the area of some thunder and a better chance of it will be getting overrun by cloudiness, preventing surface based destablization.  However, it is also in most of this area that the best wind and voriticity fields, as well as mid-upper level thermodynamic profiles exist. Further south in the potential 'strong' storms area wind fields are not as supportive, but surface based instability combined with cold upper level temperatures, although not as cold as those further north, are still cold enough to support strong wind gusts in the 40-50mph range as well as pellet to peanut M&Ms sized hail, maybe even big as large gumballs (worst case). There might by one or two storms that COULD produce said criteria.

Outside of the storm 'potential' (stressing that word), much of Central Florida will be in light to moderate rain through early-mid afternoon as upper level energy at various levels passes overhead, coupled with cold air aloft and moderate instability. The actual cold front has just cleared Tallahassee. Rains will end on the west side of the state first with ending of the rain from North and west toward the East and South with the east coast from Central  Brevard to the Keys being the last to clear of those rain chances between 4pm -7pm. 

There could also be a good break in the rains over Central early to mid-afternoon, but the actual cold front still has a lot of energy associated with it, so lifting mechanisms will likely produce a line of showers passing through once again before all is said and done during those hours noted above. Not expecting any thunder with those showers at this time, but it is possible.  Not really expecting this 'second round' over far Southeast Florida by the time it gets down there tonight. In general, the front will be crossing all of  Central to South Florida between 1pm -7pm.

TONIGHT: Following the front tonight will be WNW-NW winds of 12-20mph with some stronger gusts up until about midnight. Lows will fall into the mid-upper 40Fs and closer to the lower-mid 50s further south.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY: Winter returns, sort of. It will feel cold Friday morning and just too darn cool during the day with winds expected to remain somewhat elevated in the 10-20mph range from the WNW-NW, perhaps gusting to 25mph during the afternoon under full sunshine. Lows temperatures will be colder further north, looking at some 30Fs.  Saturday looks to be the coldest statewide, with everyone sharing the wealth in regards to it feeling too darned cold, relative to what one is used to in their region, especially since it's been so warm lately (above average). Could be seeing upper 40s as far south as the Southern Tip of the state. Afternoon highs on Friday I'm fearing will struggle to break 63F degrees with cold air advection still in place, and of course warmer south and colder north.  Saturday the wind won't be nearly as strong, and early spring sun angle should warm things up considerably (probably make it feel warmer than it actually will be in wind protected areas). Likely not a cloud in the sky.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: Very cool morning lows, with gradually moderating afternoon highs. Returning to near normal on Tuesday or Wednesday. There are hints that we might have another shot of showers/storms on Tuesday, but will discard at this time. Factors just don't seem lined up well enough, and there is no consistency between models. Also opting and singling the next system out because ever since the GFS started showing this entity, it has progressively been slacking off on its impacts to the state.

Severe Weather Panhandle Today - Some Strong Central/South Thursday

This image shows storm reports yesterday through this morning. Note the reported tornadoes in NE Texas, as was being monitored in yesterday's post.  There has been innumerable tornado warnings since late yesterday, but comparatively near zero reports other than these noted above. The other biggest threat which has materialized has been flash flooding and strong winds. We can also see that a waterspout was observed by a pilot 15 miles east of Ft. Lauderdale. I also observed a suspicious looking shear funnel about 1 1/2 hours after the time of the Ft. Lauderdale waterspout very near the 520 Cswy. over the coast (Cocoa Beach) yesterday, dangling from the ill-defined base of a sprinkling ocean shower which was part of a covergence line.  It was hard to tell if it was an actual funnel or just a cloud filament, but for about 45 seconds it was very pronounced, and weak rotation seemed apparent. Also in this image, I've outlined an area in red in the panhandle where I'm monitoring for additional tornadic activity today. See more below in that regard.

TODAY: The storm system responsible for the flash flooding and flat out flooding in some areas as snow melt meets areas of prolonged heavy rains due to training storms down stream of the melt will continue today and expand NE ward into Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginas, and Pennsylvania.  The main line of overnight activity is passing through West Alabama as I type. Below is the current radar at 8AM EST. Wow, it's already in Central Alabama.  I've annotated in red the area to be watched today for tornadoes, although there exists a much broader area of 'potential' as well.

This line is moving quite steadily, considering just 3 hours ago it was passing over the Tuscaloosa area. Note the lagging portion over extreme Southern Mississippi. I've annotated on this radar image the main threat area to watch today through late afternoon. Latest guidance is indicating a strong 925mb wind 'streak' to move across this area from the south which will be undercutting strong jet stream level winds from the west during the time of peak heating (although heating will be greatly limited due to precedent cloud coverage). It'll all be about the sharply veering winds with height in the low levels that would be the prime instigator of potential tornadic activity here. As a matter of fact, as I'm typing a tornado watch was just issued to include the west half of my red/outlined area.


Over the remainder of the state today. Breezy and partly cloudy. East to ESE winds this morning should remain in the 12 -20mph with gusts to 28mph this afternoon, especially along the entire East Coast. Winds become more SE-SSE later this afternoon and remain elevated. Not looking for any rain through daylight hours, but will be watching for a sea breeze convergence line to form very close to Route 27 (30 miles either side of that line) late this afternoon as was referred to yesterday.  It will be warm and muggy today, particularly interior and west side of the state with highs in the low - mid 80s, with A1A temperatures north of Vero Beach in the mid-upper 70s up and down the coast, near 80F south of Ft. Pierce and coolest north of Brevard.


TONIGHT: It's now looking unlikely that these mainly low topped showers that form along Route 27 will be unable to latch on to the prevailing WSW steering flow higher up in the atmosphere above them, so not expecting them to make much eastward progress beyond Lake County to western Orange County, although a few could break loose and head toward NE Florida after 10pm. As winds become almost due south after 1AM, a separate area of coastal showers from near Boynton Beach to Daytona could ride up and along the immediate east coast as this will be a moist, long-fetched low level wind and nearly parallel to the warm Gulf Stream waters which are currently in place near the coast from Port St. Lucie and south which will advect directly NNW ward into the Cape Canaveral area. This would amount to a chance of a rain shower or two along and East of I-95.  Otherwise, the stronger activity associated directly with the storm system will be spreading east across the Panhandle, but appears will weaken substantially from Tallahassee and East as the stronger low level winds mentioned earlier lift northward and out of the main 'threat' area.


Overnight lows will be similar to those of last night, perhaps even warmer. Thus, overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Muggy with a S wind at 10-18mph.


THURSDAY: Storm system (rain), and our last shot at any real rain for quite some time to come, will be over most of North Central Florida at daybreak. The remainder of the state south of the Beach Line to south Tampa Bay should be dry right before sunrise, but this quickly changes with the first vestiges of sunlight.


Pre-frontal trough/confluence zone ahead of the cold front will be steadily marchinh ESE ward across Lake County at sunrise, with some stronger storms possible just before or at daybreak from the location toward Volusia/Flagler counties shown in 'blue' below.  


New resurgence of storms/showers emerges west of the Tampa Bay area and expands eastward during mid-morning.  Prefrontal trough to move across Central Florida between 9AM - 12:30pm with the heaviest of activity moving onshore the west coast, then weakening. Little heating of the day due to prevalent cloud cover will likely hinder strong storm develop initially, but expecting to see radar light up between 9:00 - 10:00AM with storms to the west developing and pressing east due to the fact that Central Florida will be in the left exit region of a departing jet stream max. Divergence aloft and horizontally rotating gyres aloft (vorticity) at various levels will increase shower/storm coverage  Activity with these rainshowers and some thunderstorms (some of which could be strong due to wind gusts of 40-48mph and pea to dime sized hail) now appears will have it's greatest impact in the secondary area bounded in blue below. 


This image is the general threat for thunderstorms tomorrow generated by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The blue lines are of my own making.  Will be mainly watch the east half of the state south of Vero Beach between the hours of 11:30AM - 2:30PM, as the stronger Gulf Storms will be crossing this portion of the state with potentially less early day cloud cover and thus more heating (leading to destabilization). Again, we see the other area further north due to pre-sunrise activity  area noted just north of Brevard to watch for a strong storm more directly related to the synoptic scale wind fields, not due to destabilization.  


We can see from this image that much of immediate Central Florida 'could' be slotted from any threatening weather conditions, but this could change EASILY after events unfold later today and tonight.  The areas shown below are merely based on overall synoptic scale forecasts generated at 1AM this morning and not on mesoscale features that develop once initial activity has commenced.  Probably most everyone will received rain between later tonight and sunset Thursday, varying from a trace to 1/2 inch, maybe even a 1" total somewhere. Storms will be moving at 20-30mph, so the heaviest of activity won't linger long enough for larger rainfall totals.

So when does the rain end? Again, per guidance (which is in close agreement), the actual cold front will be across Central Florida at sunset with indications that the atmosphere will remain quite moist and 'stirred up' even after passage of the confluent/ pre-frontal activity earlier in the late morning/early afternoon. With that, there is a chance of an isolated rain shower South Central / South Florida until sunset, but completely gone shortly thereafter.


FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Very cool to cold, especially since it's been quite some time since much of Florida (other than NW Florida) has had winter like air in this region. So the bark could hurt more than reality.  Cold air advection/infiltration will be in full swing all night Thursday night and all of Friday.  Morning lows Friday in the mid-40s inland, upper 40Fs near the coast. Afternoon highs I'm tempted to leave in the lower - mid 60s on Friday due to continued cold air infiltration. However, given the time of year and higher sun angle (as opposed to early January), this could translate to upper 60s and quite breezy from the NW. Dry (which is not good as Fire Weather threat will start to be an increasing problem from this point on).


SATURDAY/SUNDAY: A cold morning with some lows in the upper 30s northern portions of North Central, with more mid-upper 40s interior down to SW Florida and on the north side of the Big Lake.  Cold air advection will have ceased though, so winds should relax more with highs reaching the lower to mid 70s South (and hoping this is not wishful thinking in regards to how warm it will be).  Sunday will be another cold morning in the interior, but gradual warm up along the coasts overnight begins.


MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Continued very gradual warm up, with temperatures returning to seasonable norms (highs in the mid-upper 70s) by Wednesday. No chance of rain at this point, and don't see any arriving anytime soon.

Good Potential For Severe Weather Far From Florida's Fair Weather Today

Image shows an area of Moderate Risk of Severe Weather Today surrounded by a Slight Risk. Note the extensive cloud cover currently in place over the area that is expected to experience the most prominent zone of contention. Much of East Central Louisiana is also National Forest. Storms will be hard to spot by the naked eye due to either clouds and/or trees, combined with the fact that most of this activity will occur near and after sunset. "Lions, and Tigers, and Storms...Oh My". (Do they have apple throwing trees in the Kisatche National Forest?)

Another view of the risk areas today. The area in NE Texas (I annoted myself) is another potential risk area of very isolated nature during daylight hours. From that area south a line of convection is expected to elongate and broaden  as it cross into Louisiana while also spreading fan-like into Arkansas on its northern flank..

FLORIDA TODAY/RECAP: Much of Florida was cooler than was 'officially' forecast yesterday by a good 5-10F degrees; think we might have done a little better on the post yesterday in this regard.  Today should be (and already is) much warmer.  Overnight lows were realized along A1A in many locations between 8-10pm as expected would be the case, with some areas warming by 5-7F degrees by sunrise due to the weak easterly overall low level flow and advection of high dewpoint air into the coast.  This also aided to create some patchy fog and smog around the "Ironhorse", where I-95 was closed once again in the same areas as the night before. 

A1A highs in the low-mid 70s warming to upper 70s with some low 80s west of I-95 South Central and South Florida. Leaving out any showers east coast today although models are showing a few to come onshore.  Best chance for rain today during daylight will be far SW Florida, although question the reflectivity return indicated on simulated radar of a thunderstorm down there. East winds most locations at times with a few more northerly component winds east portions of North Central early should all become ESE-SE by day's end. Gusts in the 20-25mph range in a few locations inland and SE Florida late morning through early evening.

Meanwhile, storm system gathers momentum and comes together from NE Texas, E Oklahoma, and points east and southeast into Arkansas, Mississippi, and all of Louisiana.  The best chance of tornadic activity is over the 10% hatched area in Louisiana heading toward and after dark. Not looking good for late night "Fat Tuesday" parties in the Bayou Sate. Expect a large number of wind damage reports due to fallen trees across power lines and on to some structures, given that this area has already received some generous rainfall totals a few days ago and the soil is probably still a little unsupporting/saturated to hold trees with weak or rotted rooting, especially since additional rain will be falling in the same locations with the strongest wind gusts.  That said, will also be watching for flash floods across much of Mississippi/Alabama, Tennessee, and Arkansas.

TOMORROW: Storm system will have lost a lot of its initial punch, but nonetheless will remain to pose some threats across Southern Alabama SW and West Central Georgia and the Florida Panhandle from Tallahassee west. Other areas to be watching are beyond the scope of today's post for a number of reasons. But one that stands out the most is that a lot of what occurs tomorrow will be an end result of what eventually transpires today and tonight which in all reality will not be known until it happens.

Outside of the area of concern, Central and South Florida will enjoy another warm and breezier day, with SE-SSE winds late in the 12-20mph range, gusts to 26mph. Overnight lows tonight along the East Coast in the mid-60s and cooler inland just a bit, with highs Wednesday in the upper 70s/low 80s, although A1A from Sebastian and north will likely only make it into the mid-70s. Maybe even some mid 80s on the west side of the state.  Perhaps a spotty shower east side just about anywhere. 

Better chance of showers toward late afternoon/early evening up and down Highway 27 west of Orlando. Some of these could break loose and head toward the east coast along and north of the Beachline, with an arrival there between 10pm-2am. Otherwise, another very mild overnight with increasing atmospheric moisture content throughout as the 'weather system' approaches from the WNW.

THURSDAY: Best chance of rain will have been ongoing since Wednesday in the Panhandle, spreading into most all portions of North Central by sunrise.  Pre-frontal trough to cross East Central right around 1pm , then begin to lose identity over South Central. Cold front is several hours behind this feature.  Best chance for some thunder will be from Ormond Beach to Vero Beach on the east side slanting SW toward the other coast to somewhere between Brooksville and just south of Sarasota on the west side. In other words, all of Central Florida. The Storm Prediction Center is watching this area for some "Strong Storms", but I don't see the potential quite yet, but it's tempting to make the claim.  There is a subtle difference with this system from the last one (which left many folks dry). 

The difference lies in its "attack mode" from the north. Upper level support will almost pass well to the north of the state before taken a second southward plunge late morning/early afternoon. Should this occur, wind fields aloft will strengthen as temperatures cool there as well, providing for some additional lift to the moist atmosphere. However, this will happen and be gone in the twinkling of an eye, so even if it does occur it'll have to do so in perfect sync with the placement of surface features, where-ever they may happen to be at the time. In other words, even if it does happen it could occur without notice other than for westerly winds to strengthen late afternoon after the rain has moved out.  Guidance indicates the rain chances could last across Central Florida (south half) to South Florida until dark, but I'd guess that it will end much sooner across Central Florida. Rains are pretty much over everywhere by mid-evening (if not sooner).

Away from the system's direct effects, SE Florida will have a chance of showers by mid-afternoon through dark well before any storm related surface boundaries move into the area, with perhaps some thunder as well, most likely just offshore somewhere between West Palm and Ft. Lauderdale late afternoon. Front makes a clean pass of the entire state well before Friday's sunrise. Much drier and cooler air in the system's wake will make for some very pleasant early weekend weather. Could start out quite breezy from the west on Friday, but can iron that out as the time draws closer. Very cool mornings and an afternoon or two Friday and Saturday with a pretty quick rebound to near normal by the end of the weekend.

Cooler Today Statewide, Especially East Of US-1 North of Cocoa Beach

Image: Roseatte Spoonbills at the Merritt Island Wildlife taken after Christmas time. No meteorological items of interest in Central/South Florida on the maps this morning for today worth noting, see discussions below.


TODAY:  Cold front has cleared the state this morning. Coldest temperatures in the low 40Fs and a few upper 30Fs in far NW and North Florida, warming  mid 50s most other areas...with some upper 50Fs thrown in. Winds have become NW-NNW with some overcast sky conditions currently over NW Central, partly cloudy to clear most everywhere else. Cirrus clouds are streaming in from the WNW to NW to affect North Central later this morning through early afternoon, at least.


Otherwise, along the coast of East Central and NE Florida some Atlantic stratocumulus clouds are looming just off shore NE Brevard to onshore NE Florida.  Earliest frames of visible satellite animation shows them encroaching on NE Brevard north of 528, and they already have up by St. Augustine.  Winds this morning to remain NNW to North through early afternoon at least most everywhere, eventually veering to NNE mid-late afternoon. Not so sure they will ever reach the coast today, since further atmospheric drying will occur this afternoon which would erode them before impact the coast.


Only stickler today is the high temperatures east of US1 from roughly SR 520 to Jacksonville. Most other areas will see highs in the lower-mid 70s, warmest SW Florida, and likely the coolest for the area mentioned in the previous sentence.  Ocean temperatures are running in the low-upper 60s in this zone, so with an onshore wind component later today, expected high clouds and POSSIBLY greater influx of low level stratocumulus late afternoon off-setting to some degree normal afternoon heating, looking for highs here in the mid-upper 60Fs, but wouldn't be surprised to see some renegade 63-66F degree readings seeing how cold air advection is still underway at 9AM over North Central and North Florida.


Iron Horse is 100% 'contained', but that does not mean it is out. It is still quite smoky near the embers, and portions of I-95 have been closed in North Brevard/South Volusia since after midnight. As of this writing some areas of Southbound remains closed. Expect they will open up entirely before noon, but visibility will remain restricted in this area.  It smells  faintly smoky in Cape Canaveral this morning, but this should diminish shortly as winds veer more northerly. Probably the worse of it will be along routes 46 and 50 east of Orlando this afternoon, smoke diminishing the further south one gets.


TONIGHT: Continued gradual veering of winds from NNE-ENE overnight. Cool inland temperatures in the mid-50s (colder far North Central and North).  East coast east of US-1 will moderate after midnight, particularly south of False Cape (or from Port Canaveral and south) along A1A. Coolest temperatures here should occur between shortly after sunset to 2 or 3AM (upper 50Fs), warming to 62-65F degrees near sunrise south of Port Canaveral.  


TUESDAY: Winds remain generally from the East all day at 10-15mph during the afternoon at the coast, lighter inland. Warmer inland with highs in the mid-upper 70s, coastal (A1A) highs north of Sebastian in the lower to mid 70s, warming to mid-upper 70s pretty much state wide everywhere else, including Panhandle. Possible light showers far SE Coast near Miami Metro. Afternoon Cumulus humilis clouds along and west of I-95 *see below.


WEDNESDAY: Winds become more SE-SSE late and increase 12-18mph during the afternoon under scattered clouds, nearly clear some areas east of I-95 where stratocumulus clouds cease to advect on to the coast from the Atlantic. Daytime heating/weak instability would be the catalyst for low topped afternoon cumulus humilis clouds such as these pictured below, perhaps a little larger this day to low topped cumulus:

WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT: Big storm maker from East Texas and through all of the Deep South will be approaching Florida late Tuesday afternoon, moving into the Panhandle overnight Wednesday night/early Thursday.  Rain chances ramp up by Wednesday evening West Coast and Panhandle. Early indicators reflect perhaps two pre-frontal waves/chances of rain showers North Central/North Florida prior to the actual cold front passing through Thursday (sometime between 11AM-3PM).  


Both the NAM and GFS are showing a spurious / suspicious area of rain breaking out near Sarasota over night Wednesday that translates across the state and exits the east coast somewhere between Port Canaveral - Daytona Beach prior to sunrise, Thursday. Should this manifest, it bears watching in regards to strong/severe weather. Chances are it never will materialize, but this bears watching since the wind fields at the time will be becoming increasingly favorable for at least mid-level rotation. Instability won't be an issue in regards to being a contributing factor for strong activity, and even with increasingly marginally favorable wind fields, it will only be rain with perhaps some elevated thunder.


THURSDAY: Going to leave out timing of fronts and boundaries for now, as this will change with every model run up until actual arrival, which as events have unraveled so far this year, will likely not happen as any of the models show they will anyway right up until it actually arrives. 


Case in point, yesterday as well as the day we were in the "Tornado Watch" several weeks ago. Looks good on paper but that's about it. Suffice it to say for now, rain 'chances' look pretty good for North Central and North Florida the first half of Thursday daylight. Spreading toward South Florida by mid-afternoon through sunset. Isolated thunder is again possible, with strongest activity Central from 10:30AM - 2PM.


FRIDAY: BY now rain chances end everywhere with a bonafide cold frontal passage. Could be looking at lows in the mid-upper 40Fs as far south as interior toward Lake Okeechobee. Then again, as the GFS has over estimated the extent of cold air intrusions in the extended period  all winter I'm not ready to latch on to numbers. But it will be cooler for a few mornings Friday thru early portions of the weekend. Let's hope it does rain as much as models are showing though (1/4" -1/2" in general). Chances for more rain in the extended look dismally low as we enter the climatological peak of the Dry Season going into April.