Some Strong Storms Far East Central Late Today, Hot Along A1A

First daylight image available of "Emily" this Sunday Morning. Animation clearly shows a motion toward the ENE-NE. Also  visible in the image was hazy (milky) like air south of Emily. There is an upper level, TUTT low analyzed by models approaching the Southern Bahamas extending East and South. (See colored captions)..with a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in toe. The dynamic due..abolishers of anything Tropically Stormy in Nature.

TD Emily: To cut to the Tropical Chase first off today, TD Emily is moving toward the ENE-NE this morning as could be seen on satellite animation. It is clearly visible. In its wake is a weak 500mb low NE of the Bahamas responsible for some of the higher cirrus clouds over SE Florida up toward Melbourne. Those should clear out during the course of the late morning to early afternoon. I do not think Emily will strengthen to a Storm, but if it does it would be sub-tropical as it is merging with a trough that pulled off the NE states several days ago...and likely why it seems to be accelerating in forward motion. There is also shearing winds along its projected path. So, if it is named again, it's a matter of semantics...if not who happens to be on shift at the Hurricane Center at the time.


Outside of that storm, we have a strong TUTT (Tropical Upper Level Tropospheric Trough) moving in south of Emily....This TUTT can be see below:

WHOOPS. This is actually just its mask. An actual image is hard to come by,
because like all TUTT lows SHOULD be, this one is mummified, and shrouded in dust. However, the King
might protect us (United States) for sometime from tropical Systems

 As figures, Tutankhamun was the result of a incestuous relationship and, because of that, may have suffered from several genetic defects that contributed to his early death. For years, scientists have tried to unravel ancient clues as to why the boy king of Egypt, who reigned for 10 years, died at the age of 18. Several theories have been put forth; one was that he was killed by a blow to the head. Another put the blame on a broken leg. As recently as June 2010, German scientists said they believe there is evidence he died of sickle cell disease. 


 However, I have discovered these Boy Kings of the Atlantic Ocean that prevent tropical storm formation and hinder thunderstorms are terrorists...trying to rule a time and place that would normally have rains and storms. This king's death was probably an assault from a stronger arch enemy, an Upper Level Trough from the Great North Territories...the poor sickle celled lad with a broken leg, who probably came from a dysfunctional family never had a chance.


However, I was able to come up with a more recent image now that I dig back:

WHAT THE HECK IS THIS MESS?!!!! Leave it to rulers to screw with the "System"..hey, happens with the National Budget all the time...what we have here, is the tropics being in DEBT of moisture.

No big deal. This (above) shows "Emily" East of Ft. Pierce (although on satellite it now appears to be East of Titusville)...the orange is the TUTT himself...looks like the mummy has turned to dust. Actually, the RED is SAL dust!...Huh? Now there's TUTT and SAL?..SAL is Saharan Air Layer, TUTT's partner in tropical crime protection. The two keep tropical systems away from where ever they are located.  The white, bright line shows the forecast direction of motion of Emily..white as a ghost..as Emily is...Looks about right so far. The yellow line labeled "20" is Shear of 20 knts...This is why I do not think Emily should be renamed..too much shear.


And now for the bigger Tropical Picture:

In purple is the BIG SAL/TUTT (the TUTT itself is not shown, only this mask...as shown in the first image)..The green areas are tropical waves..all of them WEAK...The GFS is bringing one of them..probably one of those last two...as a hurricane into Brownsville Texas in about 15 days..but point is..you can see why there is no tropical worries as more dry air is in the offing...but this could change in 48 hours..so this will continuously need to be monitored. Any dissolving of the mummified dust could change things around pretty quickly...and there's no shortage of energy trying to tap into moist air

FLORIDA WEATHER: To cut to the chase, no change in thinking of previous days..even 4 days ago the GFS has had the pattern nailed and little has changed. Sunday-Thursday (and possibly now Friday). Ridge across the Florida Straits toward Cuba and trough moving , building actually, into the SE will be accompanied by the first GASP! cold front of the 'season'..what season is that? Just normal summer so far I think. It's been a while since one has moved through the NE states. Remember all the heat there? Looking for highs in higher terrain later in the week maybe only in the upper 60Fs..with some 70Fs elsewhere. The front is expected to make it to Southern Georgia if not North Florida in about 4 days..then wash out. Flow will be from the WSW-WNW each day...so that will be the crux of each day's post. That, and the amount of moisture...and the determination of it there will be an east coast sea breeze.


Other than those factors, the other factor will be afternoon high temperatures and heat indices along the A1A corridor from JAX-MIA. Believe that RECORD HIGHS will be set..with some days seeing highs in the mid-upper 90Fs..HOWEVER, this will never be proven, since no official reporting stations which keep these records are located along A1A! In addition, other than Patrick Air Force Base who reports in hourly...who can prove the Heat Indices? It is possible that A1A might be WARMER on some days than some locations in the interior...except perhaps on the lee of Lake Okeechobee. Why would these be records? Because we always have a Sea Breeze in August along A1A...which keeps this area cooler than inland. These temperatures might not be 'exceptionally hot'..but with the summer humidity in place..Heat Indices could vary from 105-115F..as has been indicated at PAFB and on my home station lately...as well as one just 2 miles to my south...  So for today...


TODAY: Not really going to go too in-depth today since the state is in recovery mode of Emily's Haunt...the Ghost has moved on.....it is now time for ReBirth...rather...recovery. Central and South Florida are recovering...South more-so than Central..but barely....


...Believe storms/showers should form along the west coast sea breeze and build east with time. Flow is only about 10 mph..15 mph over North Florida and parts of North Central...since motion is pretty slow, but steady...outflows from the stronger activity after 1pm might advance the west coast sea breeze a bit faster, especially South Florida and North Florida. Believe this will give Central Florida..mainly from Oak Hill toward Ft Pierce to receive a late day (after 3:30pm)  sea breeze which will remain along US1 (or SR 3 even?).. or between US1 and I-95 in North Brevard. Thus, peak heating will have been reached, so there will be no cooling effect at peak heating..only just after it. High's along A1A 93F -97F. But who can prove it? Like stated, there's no stations that report along A1A other than PAFB. North of Oak Hill, there might not be a sea breeze at all.


Thus: I pulled out the crayolas and came up with this after connecting the dots:

POSSIBLY, stronger storms in Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie, Martin...or Palm Beach County due to late day sea breeze or the Lake Shadow (SE Florida) . Could be some squirrely mechanisms at play near Ft. Lauderdale as well.

**NOTE: Although not sketched in, I'm also watching for the possibility of another, secondary area very close to Daytona to Ormond Beach. This area might actually receive a vorticity max late today..totally unrelated to normal summer time fare. But just where that will be, if it even is, could be as far north as Ormond/JAX or as far south as Titusville. Thus, if big storms form along this area in the absence of a sea breeze, that is why. Showers, light rain could linger mostly over Brevard County until mid-evening.


MONDAY-THURSDAY: More of the daily grind, figuring out where moisture, sea breeze development, etc..will occur. In general, the East Coast is favored for the mid-afternoon to early evening storms..although on at least one day they could start up as soon as 11AM to noon. We might be able to through Friday into the mix.


Also, the SAL associated with TUTT might begin to reduce rain chances, mainly for the Keys and extreme Southern Dade or inland Monroe counties by Wednesday...otherwise, it is expected to persist for quite some time. This might be why the GFS is leaving tropical entities far away from the state...but again, that could change quickly over a 48 hour period.

Headlines Abound: Emily's Memory, Heat Indices, and Lightning

11:30AM Visible Satellite Image Courtesy of Weathertap.com. Yellow arrows show upper level outflow with the exception of the one in the NE Corner showing a thunderstorm Outflow Boundary. The orange line is the general location of the low to mid-level trough axis associated with what was Emily. This trough, in monitoring since 7AM, is drifting North and maybe even to the NNE.

TODAY: Very tricky transition day!! The transition consists of the remnants of Emily pulling out to the N-NNE and eventually NE-ENE through tonight. This system will NOT affect Florida directly, but the wind fields and dry-slots at various levels of the atmosphere (in different locations) will through today and tonight. 


In other words, the atmosphere over much of Florida is variegated. There is irrefragable proof as you will see in the images that follow.


 In NO LOCATION do values 'stack up' favoring rainfall...until possibly after or near dark tonight. Thus, the majority of the day will be spent readjusting, relaxing, waxing and waning...which leads to the first 3/4 of the day depending on Lake and Sea-breeze boundaries to interact to create thunder or showers.

It is easier to show the transformation and what is happening today via PICTURES...Please See captions:

Here shows the location of the low-level trough at 2000FT..the one at the surface is further west and very close to the East coast. It runs from the Upper Keys to Cape Canaveral. The dark green shows where the most low level moisture is located...SE Florida and North Florida. Enough for showers over SE Florida..BUT WHERE ARE THEY? All models show that by this time SE Florida should be covered in rain showers. Believe they will form over Interior Broward and Dade and Palm Beach Counties toward the Everglades shortly but high cirrus clouds might dampen their spirits to only showers..perhaps a thunderstorm where convergence is best. But high clouds are closing in...will they have an effect? To some degree I think they will.

Then we have the mid-levels of the atmosphere:

Moisture and wind at around 700mb (10,000ft) shows that South Florida is being dry slotted by the back side of the trough offshore, whereas the mid-level moisture is circled. This has changed almost zero since 7am...Overall, a part of North Florida has the best combination of moisture right now.  The greatest instability resides along  the mid-level moisture, mostly offshore. The area around the Cape and near Tampa has very high instability...perhaps to be tapped into with the sea breezes from early  afternoon through tonight.

FOR EARLIER TODAY: The Lake Breeze, Everglades "Affect" could generate some storms...but cirrus MIGHT put a damper on this activity. Hard to say for sure. The FURTHER the remnants of Emily move AWAY from Florida..the better the chances of rain and storms earlier... as time progresses, activity could get steered toward the SE coast, especially after 4pm. The dry air in the mid-levels over SE Florida seems to be preventing storms to form..but once they can...look out for lightning and wind gusts.  SEE CAPTIONS:

This is an example of where Earlier Afternoon activity COULD occur. Please read the captions. Note the affect of the Lake and Sea breezes could create some storms..but bear in mind, the mid-levels are pretty dry..so if one can get going..lightning FAR REMOVED from a storm is possible.!!  Same goes for North Florida. But do see those high clouds off the coast of SE Florida associated with storms over the Bahamas. Upper levels winds are projected to advect  (or carry/project) those clouds into South Florida heading into the afternoon...this might put the kabosh on the storms..but so far..the trough seems to be moving away...just enough to keep those cirrus clouds thin enough to allow development.

LATE AFTERNOON/MIDNIGHT: Believe the Trough (Sloth) of Emily's Memory (aka, Casper) will never develop into anything. However, as it pulls away, mid-level winds (as well as surface winds near dark)...will back toward  becoming from the NW-W rather than the NE as they are now, especially headed toward sunset and beyond. Activity from North Florida could send outflow boundaries East and South, whereas any activity over South and far South Central in Okeechobee and Martin Counties could send boundaries Northward.  Thus, those boundaries combined with increased low level moisture running from Osceola, Orange, Seminole, Western Volusia, Lake, Marion, and Flagler Counties could result in a 'string of pearls' along the St. Johns River Valley and into the Basin from JAX to near or East of Orlando. I'm also seeing a signal that with the high clouds having moved out (although after dark they have little impact)...A part of Palm Beach or Martin County could see some nocturnal activity.  If this activity can sustain itself in the middle of the night..it COULD even reach the barrier islands or A1A corridor from Cape Canaveral to JAX between 10pm to 2am. 


Bear in mind, this is a big transition day. These days are very hard to predict in the summer, since there is no previous day to compare it to in regard to storm strength, motion, and how long they will last. However, last night's activity over the west side of the state lasted until 3AM...so perhaps we can take that as a sign.  FOR TONIGHT, below:

READ CAPTIONS. This is the current radar..note the lack of showers over SE Florida. This might have changed by the time I finished writing up this post, which takes about an hour.

SUNDAY/WEDNESDAY: Headlines should read: HOT along A1A from JAX to Miami. Some record highs possible. Humid, with threatening heat indices...esp. Monday and Tuesday along A1A. Some strong storms possible near the East Coast late day to early evening near SE Florida, Brevard, and North to JAX...mainly Sunday and Wednesday.  Monday and Tuesday might not see a sea breeze at all...so chances of thunder might be limited. But, given the strong west to east steering aloft and moist air forecast, showers could evolve into storms from the west coast sea breeze as they progress toward A1A. Also note, there is a TUTT trough approaching the Florida Straits. It appears impacts from that will be limited to far South Florida and the Keys. If so, showers and storms might be limited to near zero on Monday or Tuesday...just have to see what happens with that entity in the next day or so.


THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Transition into more generic of days with the heat relaxing a small bit. By Friday...a tropical wave might be disrupting (or even Thursday) the cycle so fun -n-games forecasting will be in the cards....which leads to the TROPICS:


TROPICS: Many tropical waves are pooping up...Yes..so far Pooping Up...popping up (typo)...over the Atlantic between Emily's Memory and Africa. It does appear that the period from August  12 through the 17th might be full of tropical discussions regarding this activity. Especially as we approach the 22nd. The one thing I want to point out is that all of these waves so far are projected to come off Africa at around 7-10 degrees north latitude. This is very far south..for an Atlantic entrance...and favors activity to threaten Puerto Rico time and time again...taking a track similar to Emily...Storms that can develop and pass north of Puerto Rico could threaten the U.S. East Coast from Florida to North Carolina...and those that pass south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic could impact the Gulf side from Louisiana to NW Florida...and then there's those that go 'in between'. Just a heads up....NOW is the time to take casual preparations in one's spare time as the urge strikes...if in no other form than a mental or written checklist....

Friendly Emily Not Such a Big Scare Afterall

EMILY to mostly play peek-a-BOO with Florida and the Bahamas as the storm
becomes divided in the mid-levels with little to no closed surface circulation. Lets face it, Emily died in the Tropical Storm graveyard of the Dominican Republic...Rest in Peace...

EMILY: Going to discuss the remnant lows of Emily..rather troughs so far...of Tropical Storm Emily because this synoptic scale feature will affect the weather over Florida through Mid-Day Sunday (at least).  Current, only a mid-level circulation can be located at the based of a mid-level trough which extend well to the NE of Cuba east of the Bahamas. The Portion very near Cuba might creep north a bit more, but will likely wash out due to shear further north. The spooky area off toward the Bahamas is the only saving grace for the storm to regenerate I'd think, but even if it did it would be nothing more than a Sub-tropical, ghostly low as it meets up with a frontal boundary off the U.S. East Coast. Zombie Emily is over Cuba.

This is the 850mb RUC forecast for 2pm today...you can see it has two closed areas..but that are actually open. The one over Cuba might drift WSW while the other should pivot off the the North to NNE. Note those winds of 30 KTS shown. These are expected to continue..perhaps up to storm strength at the lower levels, but there is never a truly closed circulation. For that, I suspect the winds are being created by pressure gradient winds between the Trough of Emily and strong, summer time high pressure over the Atlantic.  If it can organize, it would be with help of a front off the U.S. East Coast. Thus, no threat to the U.S....and any re-naming will be at the jurisdiction of the Hurricane Center for whatever reason.

Here's is one reason why I would not expect the storm to develop. Wind shear. Although there is very little to no shear in the storms current location, there is shear everywhere else.

Only 5 knts of shear in current location but 20 to 30iknts everywhere else...Not that we will likely see a flare up of convection off to the East of the Bahamas due to wind shear/pressure gradient winds (for stronger winds) out there..but it should not be a full tropical nature, nor completely closed.

ON TO BIGGER AND BETTER THINGS: Well, not necessarily for a few days still. Not much has really changed over Florida other than the perfect summer weather we have had lately. It's not summer unless you can break into perspiration while going outside in the mid-afternoon to check the mail. And that will be the case the next few days ahead. 


Overall, Emily's remains will haunt only as a barely detectable, friendly entity... not seeing a big surge in moisture except maybe the SE Coast to East Central Florida heading into later Saturday...but in general, nothing more than a good, moist, summer day.  It will not be until at least mid-day Sunday that the effects of the system should start to move out so that things can get back to a variation of 'normal'.  


TODAY: Showers and some thunder as shown, mostly late today. Shower activity should be very isolated until after 4pm when they might increase in number, with a mix of some thunder thrown in.

There really is nothing special to see here other than to note Southeast Florida. There is the remote chance that showers and maybe some thunder could move into SE Florida toward or after dark through 11pm tonight. Just a gander on that one. Otherwise, it should remain farily dry today down there.  The main players today will be the East Coast sea breeze and the Lake Okeechobee breeze...but for the most part expecting most storms to be over Polk and Lake Counties...Pinellas and Hillsborough.

SATURDAY should be close to the same...although this day and SUNDAY both are dependent upon what Casper..er, Emily..does. No big wash outs expected but the chance of thunder increases toward Central and East Florida later in the afternoon.


MONDAY/TUESDAY: Looks like both of these days will favor the far East side of the state for showers. It will be very warm at the beach-side, east of I-95 with the potential for no sea breeze on one or both of these days. If that is the case on one or both days, most precipitation might be only rain showers rather than thunder over land..maybe becoming thunderstorms off shore.


WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: These might be the days for strong storms over the interior working toward the east coast later in the day with some cooler air aloft. Beyond Thursday things get very fuzzy, although the GFS continues to show rain chances...the wind fields look very suspicious in the mid-levels..so we'll have to wait and see what will come out of this. I think that for the time being official outlets are just riding on climatology and persistence of the previous days for now..due to how far away Thursday is from today. Thus, the better chances of rain continue to be broadcast ...in the past, the GFS has been becoming very sketchy around the 13th or 14th...so it does look like sometime around next Sunday the rain chances might go down..pending arrival of either another continental U.S. trough for more thunderstorms OR..the arrival of a tropical wave..which at this point is looking unlikely due to the current dry air well west of the next wave of the charts coming off of Africa.

"Dwell In Possibility" - Emily (Dickinson)

A POSSIBLE SOLUTION FOR RAIN/STORMS TODAY FROM NOW THROUGH 9:00PM
The most activity should begin after 5pm and peak in intensity and number from 6:00pm through 8:00pm. This image shows the moisture content of the atmosphere between the lifted condensation level (LCL) and the level of free convection (LFC)

TODAY: As noted several times in the past this summer, the pattern over Florida in the absence of a major, large scale (synoptic) weather system, tends to have a habit of repeating the previous day's pattern for a 2-3 day period under most normal circumstances, and such is the case for today. Today is definitely appearing to be somewhat  of a variant between Tuesday and Wednesday combined.  

Early day showers formed along the west coast, and recently sent outflow well to the east ( into the interior)  with significant clearing behind them from the west coast. Not sure this area will recover, but believe it will to some degree later today.  Otherwise, there is only a very weak surface ridge axis over SE Florida, and only light sea breezes along the east coast.  The driest air is just north of a Titusville to north of Brooksville line...so not expecting any storms in that area today except toward the far north as noted in the image shown.

The deepest PWAT (precipitable water) air is located over the South half of South Central and all of South Florida. There, for the most part ..theoretically, is where the most storms should be. However, I'm not fully convinced this will be the case today. Showers should begin earlier over the Southern Portion of the state as has been the case the past two days. Outflows from these showers and storms should scour out adjacent areas which might never recover enough to generate storms (as has occurred over SW Florida already).  This is because the air aloft today is quite warm still, thus, storm generation requires some very good low level moisture convergence (forcing) of sea/lake breezes and outflows. What's done is done...and since South Florida might get worked over earlier..those outflows might propagate northward late today.  As has been the case, the PWAT increases after 6:00pm...so believe those areas that are currently marginal toward Northern portions of South Central might find that necessary ingredient in place late today. Given the latest trends, a small thundershower could form almost anywhere along the east coast sea breeze from Melbourne and south to Miami. 

 SPC Mesoscale analysis has been showing all morning a band of moisture convergence and precipitation replacement values all along and south of the Beach Line...although the values required for storms is not yet available. That might occur very late today, and for now are a premonition of things to come.  A Storm or two should be able to generate very frequent lightning, mainly over the interior toward evening. My thoughts now is that would be over Osceola and Okeechobee Counties, with perhaps some recovery combined with outflows over SW Florida. So again, not unlike many summer days, it is like trying to anticipate how the swerving line of pre-established dominoes that have been set up will fall...and if they do..if the will fall successfully.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: A low and mid level trough is trying to establish into the Deep South. This was shown late yesterday and over night by the very active strong to severe thunderstorms over Kansas and Oklahoma (those areas have not had big storms over a large area for quite some time). Additionally, strong storms moved into the north halves of Alabama and Georgia. Again, a rarity...so it appears the stage is being set for days to come. Another first.  This area of lower pressure should begin to indirectly start to impinge into North Florida on Friday and more so on Saturday for better rain chances there. We might end those days with a string of storms up and down the entire Western interior by the time the day is through..with other storms / showers over mainly the southern part of the state.

SUNDAY-FRIDAY: Increased rain chances, especially late Sunday through Tuesday; However, much of this period in regard to just how much is completely contingent upon the track of Emily, which is currently trying to come out of its stupor. The mind is willing, but the muscles are weak..and more battles are on the way for the storm.

EMILY EMERGES FROM RE-HAB, BUT HER DEMONS STILL PLAGUE THEORISTS: 

“Not knowing when the dawn will come, I open every door.” - Emily

As of noon, Tropical Storm Emily is creeping toward the WNW at 5mph. I except this motion to continue in stairstep fashion between W to NW through tomorrow morning. Her location is shown below..although by now the storm is a bit to the west and north from shown. 

The following are being observed: 1) Emily's strength has remained constant, and little change is expected although I wouldn't be surprised to see some weakening in the next 12 hours, because; 2) Emily is headed toward the very 'hilly' terrain of tree-barren Haiti. Even one tree can soak up millions of gallons of water, so with such tree depraved landscape, combined with the slow forward motion and abundant rainfall likely, flash flooding looks to be a very, very big issue for  Haiti. 3) Emily has very good outflow, such so that it should hold its own at least for a while while near and over Land 4) Emily's circulation is also approaching the very hilly terrain of Eastern Cuba...more problems. 5) Dry air to the north of Emily is eroding away significantly, so that's one thing the storm has going for it; 6) Shear to the north of Emily is INcreasing north of Haiti and Cuba..not so good.

With that said:

HERE is the latest Visible satellite image of Emily in the center of the image. This image is showing the upper level outflow winds in those blue arrows...All outward at 20-25kts which is okay for sustaining life. Also shown is the official forecast track (in bold white)..the main player forecast model tracks (dynamical and consensus ensemble) - are to the right of the official forecast...and then other  single layer statistical model plots..to the left (west) of the official forecast. It's pretty plain to see that the official forecast is located in the middle of all of these plots.  

What I would like to throw in is that note that all of the plots to the left of the official track run lengthwise across Cuba. If the storm takes this track..the storm will be over land longer than otherwise if more to the right and will likely decay into a moisture laden, inverted trough in the mid-levels. This could come right across Florida as the trough over the U.S. mentioned above draws nearer on Saturday (and as high pressure builds in toward its Southeastern flank.

 On the other hand, if the storm takes the track to the right, the storm will be over land of even hillier terrain. At its current forward motion, it will be over that terrain ..or it's circulation will be..for 24-36 hours. Believe it will weaken significantly at this time...and we might be hearing about Depressed Emily by tonight...Storms need therapy too sometimes.  

Again, the forecast for Emily. The orange and yellows is dry air. It has DECREASED signficantly in the past 24 hours...so the storm is good from that perspective.  BUT..those winds barbs to the north of Cuba is low to mid level WIND SHEAR. Oops! If Emily goes quickly over the mountainous land of Haiti..she might arrive further north and into the winds shear before it can depart.

And lastly, this wind shear shown in the image above to the north of the storm has increased in the past 24 hours, whereas that around the storm has decreased. This likely is what allowed the storm to maintain some sanity (strength).

Image shows the increasing shear north of the storm.

So from what I can tell from the above. Emily might be forced more toward the WNW rather than to curve NW and N for the next 24-36. This takes the storm more toward Cuba. During which time, the trough over the SE U.S. will be digging further south into Georgia...very slowly though. As the storm weakens, it could eventually be drawn northward in the form of a weak mid-level alter self...and very confused. However, the storm could track a lot of moisture with it. (There is a trail of moisture on water vapor imagery extending SW from the storm).

“To hope means to be ready at every moment for that which is not yet born, and yet not become desperate if there is no birth in our lifetime.”

Thus, from the above Emily has only 2 options:

1. Be a willing patient and take the meds as prescribed. For which, it will move more rapidly northwest within 36 hours..it will weaken but might be able to strengthen only AFTER it begins to be picked up by the continental feature (the shear should also let up just a bit)..at which point..it would probably be  relatively close to the forecast track. If that is the case, the enhanced chance for rains in Florida will not begin until late Sunday or Monday once the storm is NORTH of 28N Latitude..or roughly north (and east) of Central Florida. And, the storm poses no threat of any kind to Florida.

2. Emily remains a stubborn patient, heeding only the voices in its head and takes Easy Street  (or so it thinks), toward Cuba. But beware, easy street houses the thugs...On that course, especially if it accelerates, moisture and a mid-level circulation could work in toward the Everglades of South Florida late Saturday. With moisture advecting up to far North Florida as it is drawn northward by the ridge building in behind it from the SW Atlantic.  The trough to the north will add mainly a dynamic element for thunderstorms over North and Central Florida...with maybe more of a rainy situation for South Florida.

"Dying is a wild night and a new road.”

Emily Musings: Isolated Showers and Some Thunder Very Late Other Than Far South Florida

A few showers here and there near lakes and on sea breezes in the green area in general. Some Afternoon to early evening thunder is possible earliest Far South Florida, and just maybe further north along the East Coast toward South Brevard after  6:00pm, but  that 'might' be stretching it, considering the latest trend of drying in the mid-levels last hour everywhere other than south of Lake Okeechobee. Moisture convergence toward dark can work some magic though..(as was the case last night toward Gainesville)...so there might be a storm or two into South Central Florida when all is said and done..if south..likely over Osceola county or Okeechobee County.

TODAY/FRIDAY: Won't go to much into the details for today through Friday. Warm air aloft is expected to continue; thus, mainly only very late afternoon to mid-evening thunderstorms, generally over South Florida.  Thursday looks to be the overall driest day state wide, but not completely.  Storms should remain quite isolated most of the day (South Florida), but might become more scattered, possibly a bit stronger after 5:30pm over South Florida.


Back to today:  The west coast sea breeze should reach toward the East Coast toward early evening. This might generate a thunderstorm further north along the east coast as drawn in, but given the latest trends..that might be wishful thinking for those who like to hear thunder for dinner music. There is a reason why South Florida might not flare up too much later today. See the image below. There is some thin, high cirrus clouds moving in the direction of the South half of the state at this hour. If they overrun South Florida after 4pm..it might squash the rain chances. That is something that will have to be monitored by the NWS down that way. ...for within the next few hours is when the sea and lake breezes..and any other showers that form will generate boundary intersections to create the best storms for that area of the day...which might be impeded by those high clouds if they move in.


EMILY: Latest information concerning Emily as of 1pm today indicates the storm has not changed in strength. The official forecast track from overnight has shifted back toward the West (after having shifted east earlier)..now bringing the storm closer to the East Florida coast than any previous forecast. Interesting, in that the latest GFS/NAM solutions have it even further to the EAST (and away from Florida)...interesting hypothesis.

IMAGES: Note these two images. The first image shows that all the thunderstorm activity if off to the SE side of the surface circulation. There is almost one  storm that recently popped up on the NE side. To the north of the storm, indicated by the 'white, circled "L", is the Dominican Republic.

The first thing I wanted to point out other than how very small the circulation is with no rain wrapping around the surface low (or even above it)...is that the storm has been moving WEST since early morning. This is important because the latest Official Forecast Track by now has the storm moving almost in a Northwest direction.  Just how long this westerly motion will continue is not known...but surely the next official forecast track that is released will also be revised.  Note that the further west it goes, if we assume it will eventually curve north, the better the chances are that it will cross less land mass of Haiti. Perhaps it will take the channel between Haiti and Western Cuba.


The next item of interest is the water vapor image showing the amount of moisture in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere:

See Emily at the bottom of this image. Then see the dry air to its north? Can an already weak to moderate strength tropical storm make it across the high elevation of the Dominican make it through the dry air? Not very likely unless AT LEAST the dry air moves out. Perhaps the storm is avoiding the dry air..or maybe even being steered by it by staying more toward the south.

So what we have here is quite the conundrum. Dry air to the north, what looks like continued shearing winds to the north of the storm until at least tonight...some shearing winds to the SW of the storm as well, and mountainous terrain to its north.  The best chance for Emily at this point if it is to head north is to take the passage between the DR and Cuba.  What if the storm gets TOO far west and curves into Eastern Cuba  (?)..that is the most mountainous region of the island.  If it continues to go too far west..by that time the next upper level trough that has been forecast for many days..before Emily even existed...will start to be digging into the Southeast U.S....with more shearing winds. This essentially means the storm will be headed for Honduras.  In other words, at this point there's no reason to sweat this storm. This also means Haiti, now trimmed of trees...could succumb to flooding rain fall...and landslides. Good grief, enough already for Haiti.


There is one opt out though. Perhaps Emily will simply open up into a significant 'open wave' and take the turn ..northward..bringing plentiful moisture northward in the progress. This would bring a better chance of rain to Florida heading into Sunday

No discussion of a tropical storm is complete without showing the forecast track plots engineered by some of the models. The official NHC track it the heavy, dark red plot in the center...but check out that margin of error. The best chance for this storm is if it heads as far west as possible at this point. Even still, note that every single track is showing a NW motion from the point of origin, yet Emily is moving west as of the last official observation. There goes those plots right off the bat.

IN ANY CASE: No matter what Emily does or does not do, the outlook in General For Florida is for increased rain chances around the Monday time frame. Even if Emily does move north..the moisture return will come once the storm gets north of Central Florida. If it passes just to the east of the state, someone is going to get 'dry slotted'...which mean no rain for a time as it passes by.

Late Afternoon Thunderstorms With a Big Punch Possible

A Thunderstorm on August 1 working South down the Indian River as viewed over the Banana River west of Port Canaveral on SR 528 (The Beach Line)

TODAY: Some big storms with frequent to excessive lightning are possible again today, with the most lightning prolific storms with possible stronger wind gusts in heavy rainfall (wet microbursts due to moisture over-loading) after 3:30pm through 7:30pm today. Storms COULD occur over many locations today, but it appears that the largest concentration will be toward the east side of the state from near Ormond Beach South to Vero Beach by the time 9pm has rolled around (not all at the same time). There could also be some stronger storms over and near the Everglades with almost no storm motion other than via propagation along where the Lake Breeze meets outflow boundaries and other wind boundaries such as the sea breeze.  Like yesterday, a few locations could receive rainfall measuring over 2 inches, whereas other locations will be completely dry


Keep in mind. Storms over Florida in the summer almost always form along a 'boundary'. That boundary is normally a wind/thermal boundary created by Lake and Sea breezes. When those two boundaries meet, the storms become stronger or turn from rainshowers to thundershowers, or even thunderstorms (both have dangerous lightning either way though) A 700mb trough aloft will be an additional mid-level boundary for North Central Florida today.


SET UP: A 700mb (mid-level) trough of low pressure (generally at about 10,000 ft overhead)...is sinking south into North Florida...a bit further south from where it was located yesterday. This is coupled with a weak mid-level 700mb ridge across far South Florida.  At the surface, the ridge axis is located almost in the Florida straits surrounded by very light winds. So light of winds that 3 waterspouts were observed off the coast of Miami Beach early in the morning.  Beyond the 700mb trough along the SE U.S. Coast (toward the west), a weak high pressure area extending from the Southern Plains States (with drier air) is trying to build south toward I-10. Another trough is in the wings though a few days away.  Between those two areas, across most of the state, is a light west to east steering flow. It is a bit more from the WNW at the lower levels.  Expecting sea breezes to form earliest from Ft. Pierce and South, and Ormond Beach to JAX, with the latest onset of the sea breeze's true reflection the latest over Dead Central Florida, namely Brevard County, Southern Volusia, and maybe Indian River County.


In South Florida, slower steering (to almost none), high PWAT air (lots of moisture), and sea/lake breezes will allow showers and storms to form along those boundaries...initially just showers but evolving into thunderstorms where the two boundaries meet.  Boundary interactions could set up a stronger storm or two just about anywhere, so the graphic for today's post shows one possible location, but this could happen almost anywhere in Collier, Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach Counties.


In Central Florida, the least moist (but hardly by much, and thus most stable), is the east side of the state south of Volusia County to Vero Beach). This area should thus be the latest to receive rain because 1) it is a tad less moist 2) this is part of where the latest sea breeze will form, and thus, no boundary. 


Any sea breeze along the east coast today should remain along or east of I-95 due to general west to east winds just above the ground at 2000ft (those winds are not expected to change today).

ONE MORE NOTE FOR TODAY: Latest glance at the jet stream level winds for today  shows the strongest jet stream level winds I've seen over the state in about 2 months, at least. There are no storms at this time downstream of these winds, so those high altitude winds shouldn't be advecting high level cloudiness across the state (as can be observed at noon today that is the case so far).  The winds at one point in the plot are nearly 60kts, but mostly 30-40kt winds could be passing overhead today at the jet stream level. This would effectively spread anvil level storm tops toward the SW late today and tonight, but keep storms that are progressing from west to east headed into 'clean air' (not into an area covered by cloudiness).  It would also help prevent storms to a smaller degree from collapsing on themselves a little less readily.  The temperatures aloft today are about the same as they ended up yesterday, but any little unforeseen 'cool' pocket in the mid-levels would provide the incentive for a robust storm  to raise some eye-brows and result in a few special weather statements being issued, if not a warning toward the east coast (such as the area in black above).


Outflows from storms inland generated by the lakes should send more outflows mostly east and southward... generating more storms in stair step fashion toward the east coast. In essence, the storms will progress from west to east, with a hint at some points of moving in from the WNW to even NW.  If storms reach Volusia or Flagler County earlier than expected (around 2:30 -3:30pm), outflows from those storms could force other storms to form into North Brevard County that would work lengthwise along the intracoastal waterways and against the sea breeze.  Those storms in theory would be enhanced and made stronger (said with a bit conjecture). If so, the US1 to A1A corridor from Port Canaveral to Vero Beach might be in for a 'surprise storm' generated by very localized, misoscale boundaries.

THESE ARE THE JET STREAM LEVEL WINDS AT NOON. Nearly twice as strong (if not more) than they have been for quite some time. Winds over even 60kts (three times stronger not seen  recently, not since early June) are shown off the Georgia Coast.

TROPICS: If you've watched any TV today, you're probably aware about Tropical Storm Emily. There are so many variables at hand as of noon that a post concerning Emily's future track and strength would require a complete separate one of its own. To sum it up: 
1) Emily has slowed down in forward motion significantly since sunrise. This could mean it is gathering together its low and mid level components..that is, becoming slowly organized
2) Emily otherwise is not encountering any shearing winds and is in warm enough water for strengthening.
3) The latest flight into Emily did not show an increase in winds.
4) FORECAST TRACK NOTE: It appears the 'official' forecast track of Emily is essentially a weighted mean (statistical) of all the various tracks generated by at least 20 different track producing models. The 'mean' discounts the off the wall tracks that the 'average' would include. Do note that the track has been shifting toward the west just a bit. The GFS run of 06z was SIGNIFICANTLY different from those of yesterday..and fell back in line with earlier runs in citing that model as just one example.
5) IN GENERAL: Expect each and every model run to change to a least a small degree in regard to a future track and storm strength (and that means every SIX hours), varying from intensification to complete decay into an open wave ...especially if it starts to curve into the islands of the Great Antilles (such as The Dominican Republic).


Therefore, it's best to simply monitor the situation at one's convenience (if in Florida for instance)...AND..begin to consider what you'd need to have at hand in the case of a power outage longer than 12 hours -72 hours). 


If for any reason  this Storm (for example) were to track toward the NW as forecasts are zoning in on, then we'll have to see how strong the storm becomes after crossing any land (such as the Dominican Republic which has huge mountain tops). 


Bear in mind, the most significant strengthening of now dubbed Emily has almost always been AFTER having crossed land. Thus, what we are seeing happen in the next 48 hours might bear little to NO resemblance of what will come heading toward Friday. That is another reason why one should at least be mentally prepared to take some action.


 In that light, based on that strength and the expected track..greater preparatory measures might be required by coastal residents of the Florida East Coast, the Keys,  or in the Bahamas. So far, there has been no indication EVER that Florida Coastal Residents would need to prepare for anything beyond a power outage. Additionally, if the storm were to curve and become a hurricane of Cat 1 strength, coastal flooding would be at a minimum due to the direction of approach (and NO concern if it remains well off to the east)...for Florida.


In short, stay tuned and keep these ideas in mind. Another BLOG POST is in the works: 'Are You Sure You're Ready...?"  This will include a basic check list prepared by the Hurricane Center (with some personal ideas based on experience as well)...and a little geography lesson addressing the Caribbean Islands which are often referred to (if not always) when coverage begins on TV. I'm not so sure all of those weather men even KNOW where the Windward and Leeward Islands begin and end...as well as where the U.S. Virgin Islands fit into the mix. But we can know, can't we..and we will in that upcoming post.

Neighborhood Skim-Boarding Possible Later Today

It could rain most anywhere today by bedtime tonight, put there is a focus developing at noon time toward that area between I-4 and the Beachline. Believe other areas further South will get into the act by mid-afternoon as showers are now occurring near the SE Florida Coast in Palm Beach County (for one). The strongest storms - suitable for neighborhood skim boarding in their aftermath, will occur after 3pm and top in strength between 5pm through 7:30pm in areas last affected and where the sky has remained the most cloud free during the mid afternoon.

TODAY: There is actually some synoptic scale features over and near Florida today on this first day of August other than the Bermuda high pressure ridge or a hurricane. That being, there is a mid level trough axis over North Florida responsible for pre-dawn thunderstorms there. In this image, you can see the resultant clouds from those storms moving into the Gulf, but some more clouds might be on the way there.


Further south, the surface ridge feature is over South Florida with the mid-level ridge just south of Dead Central Florida. Overall though, all of these features are 'weak' in regard to the wind fields associated with them. Similarly, the thermal gradient (temperatures) aloft with them are also weak to zero in regard to how they have changed from the past two days.  There is more moisture over the state today than yesterday in that is spread out a bit more, but parts of South Central and South Florida are drier (but not by any means 'dry') than further north.


NOW: North Florida was over wrought with pre-dawn thunderstorms and the clouds from them are just now moving out. They have a lot more de-stabilizing to do to see the Storm Wheels turning. Parts of South and South Central had more dense cirrus clouds over those areas earlier, so they have not yet de-stabilized enough to get even a cumulus cloud. On the other-hand, South Florida was free of the high clouds and already has a light sea breeze going. Net result-showers have gone up near the coastline of Southeast Florida.  Elsewhere, the most unstable atmosphere lies roughly across Central Florida from just north of I-4 (Daytona) to just North of the Beachline (Titusville). The cloud line forming from that can be seen on satellite imagery, but I suspect part of that line is due to a remnant outflow boundary from the storms that were further  North very early today.  Aloft, not much has changed, but the 500mb temperature (that around 20,000ft) seems to have cooled a degree or two while 700mb is holding on to the summertime norm of 10C...at least 'the norm'  for the past two years, which is actually a bit warm..not conducive for severe weather most of the time.


FORECAST: Firstly, I'm doing this post now, because I suspect that with the showers along the SE Florida coast, and likely some soon over North Central Florida, ao that instead of waiting until the atmosphere gets organized enough to show something definitive...might as well go ahead and write something up...namely because there is no 'definites' today. Please keep that in mind.


Believe the first thunder today will be over interior SE Florida followed shortly or coincidentally with some activity over far North Central Florida.  Activity should increase during the course of the afternoon and send out boundaries to create more storms.  The east coast sea breeze will stay very close to the coast today north of Canaveral, and possibly make it as far west as I-95 South of the Cape, but remain light.  Likewise, winds aloft are from the SW toward the NE today for steering but are only around 10mph or less; in other-words, all things are equal to making for very slow storm motion toward the NE, if even.  Believe that boundary interactions and propagation (formation of storms along those boundaries) will over come any steering in place. Thus, storm motion in the synoptic sense is nearly irrelevant and impossible to predict.  Given the weak sea breeze today, storms could propagate back to A1A where the sea breeze is last to develop, namely north of West Palm or Ft. Pierce.
The strongest storms will occur where two (or more) boundaries interact combined with the late afternoon most unstable conditions ...located in areas that have remained rain free and the most cloud free as well, which could on the Eastern Interior Side of the state.  The Lake Breeze might also become a big player, so would not at all be surprised to see a Double Whopper exit off the East coast between Vero to  Melbourne Beach by 8pm tonight.


Given the slow storm motion, and Precipitable Water (PWAT) air of 2.1" plus or minus a 1/10 of an inch or so, the most organized pockets of storm producing moisture could also drop that value back to earth, resulting in Classic Late Afternoon , Mid-Summer Like Conditions in those locations most suitable for skim boarding down main street or before that time, catching some lightning bugs (bolts) from the safety of a fully enclosed home away from windows and corded video game consoles,  or in a car with the windows rolled up.  Some stronger wind could occur in the heaviest downpours right as storms begin to collapse, mainly about 2 miles west (or more) from the sand dunes of the Atlantic along the North Central to South Central Coast of the Atlantic.  If storms become more numerous over North Central early this afternoon, the outflow from them will cover more territory, and result in a larger number of strong storms over Central to South Central Florida after 5pm which might very well be able to creep toward the ENE on their own accord.


TUESDAY-THURSDAY: More storms..most likely with the crux of the activity southward with time ..but not in full. It does appear that North Florida might be out of the game for a day or two in the next few days..possibly as far south as Ormond Beach or Daytona after Tuesday or Wednesday. A lot will depend on the tropics beyond that time.

A wetsuit?!!...LOL

TROPICS: Some readers might be interested in yet one more point of view about what this writer is thinking about the disturbance in the Caribbean, so he won't disappoint. Like the intent of these writings is meant, it is first and foremost meant to not mislead, sticking straight to facts; and guesses are presented as that.


There has yet to be a tropical cyclone identified, so it would be a bit mis-leading to make statements about what I think will happen one week from now, no? But I can present some facts, and take it from there. 1) the area in question is small;  2) It has yet to organize fully, but is on the brink of it and might become a 'low' anytime. Satellite animation looks like it already is, but it's all in the mid-levels; 3) Will it EVER be a low at all, since earlier projections by some models showed it would not? Worth considering;  4) If it takes too long, it will interact with the Great Antilles (Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic/Cuba) perhaps as a weak storm or  only a depression. This would weaken it back to 'wave' status. 5) Is there sheer present in the near future? Not really, no. Water temperatures are warm enough too. It may be that there was two areas as was observed yesterday, so they may have been competing with each other. One of those seems to be gone now.
6) Could it hit Florida? Yes. One projection, which frankly looks better than 1/2 baked, is for the complex to cross Florida as a slow moving inverted trough (after conflicts with Cuba)..and to nearly stall over the state. Try forecasting that to occur one week in advance! 


So what this leaves us with is, what has to happen for it to become a strong and potentially dangerous tropical entity? It has to either begin to move a tad more toward WNW or stay way south and go south of the Dominican Republic. In that case, it would need to avoid all but the western tip of Cuba, then perhaps be drawn northward (it's a long story as to why that could happen..but the signs are there by later this week to make that happen)...then lift northward and pass west of the Florida Keys. Not entirely out of the question out all.


 On the other hand, if it goes north of the Lesser Antilles (namely the Leeward Islands)...it could be steered more toward the Southern Bahamas. Keep in mind, this storm is very small right now. In fact, given the current model forecasts which is pretty much all of them in regard to size..it equates to tracking a very large thunderstorm...not unlike tracking a needle in a haystack. Thus, to move forward with a projected path at this point with a storm that has not yet formed has nothing to gain/merit, and everything to lose both from the writers and the potentially threatened recipient's perspective ( of that information).   


Ever tried threading  a needle blind folded?


NEAR FUTURE INFO FOR DISGESTION: Do you ever wonder where all those islands like the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Lesser Antilles, The Greater Antilles, the Netherland Antilles, the Leeward Islands, and the Windward Islands that those guys on TV talk about as if everyone were a geography major,  but were just too lazy or intimdated (to admit you didn't know) to figure it out? All this "Tropics Speak" finally got the best of me, so I did the leg work for you. Will post about that likely tomorrow..with an image or two. Simple as  "'put the lime in the coconut and drink it all up..'"

Isolated, Becoming Scattered Lightning Storms Possible Today

A very, very large sea gull flies over the Atlantic Ocean Saturday Morning, July 30th. Can you see it? I'm standing barefoot in the warm Atlantic Ocean water. These warm waters are creating high dew point temperatures along the A1A corridor of North Brevard, with high heat indices as well, even though the temperature is only at or just below 90F in those areas (Such as Satellite Beach toward Canaveral)

TODAY: The suppressing affect of the mid-high level pressures that were over the Western Panhandle of Florida yesterday is relaxing. Florida was on the descending (sinking air) side of those highs, and thus as expected, rain fall was very very sparse. Since yesterday, the high pressure has retreated far to the west toward Eastern Texas and Mississippi, and is expected to retreat even more so during the day. With that in mind, although the wind aloft has not changed in direction all that much, it is much weaker, and air pressure aloft is lower. This allows for better mixing of the low level moisture with the mid-levels.  There is already much more moisture as evidenced by the increased PWAT air...by as much as 1/2" over yesterday, ranging from 1.9 -2.1"..focused more toward the North Half of the state. I expect these values might get higher by late afternoon as moisture convergence at the low levels due to Lake/Sea breeze boundary interactions occurs and lifts low level moisture into the mid-levels.


Otherwise #1. Temperatures aloft are really not much different than yesterday, maybe one or two degrees cooler over the SOUTH HALF of the state in the mid-levels. Makes sense right? That area is further from the retreating mid-level high pressure region now located as shown in the image below well to the WNW of the state.  Latest SPC mesoscale analysis shows some pretty steep mid-level lapse rates lurking just off shore the Central and South Florida east coast, but whether those values will translate over the land mass cannot be determined., since when running a loop they simply seem to shift around in location, but remain off shore. Steeper lapse rates implies better lift due the thermal mechanisms, rather than 'forced' lift, such as created by wind boundary collisions.


Otherwise #2. Winds at 2000 ft this morning are from the W-WSW along the coast of Central and North Florida. This will delay the east coast sea breeze, which will remain light until around noon time, and not really let its presence by known until about 2-3pm north of Vero Beach. It will begin sooner over South Florida and interact with the Lake O breeze.

THUS: Expect we could see much greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms today. Cooler temperatures aloft (barely) over South Florida and sea/lake breeze boundary interactions could generate some very lightning prolific storms over Western Palm Beach, Broward, and Martin Counties...as well as toward Collier County and over the Everglades.  Boundaries could force storms into Western Indian River County, maybe Extreme SW Brevard. Other storms very close to the coast will occur (more isolated) in Volusia.  


In general, most activity will be restricted to 3-5 miles away from any coast today..with the best chances of shoreline activity over SW to West Central Florida and perhaps in Volusia County.  The greatest concentration should be over the South 1/3 of the state. Outflows could generate further activity back toward the east in Central and South Florida in the interior...and perhaps even send an inactive boundary back to A1A after 9-10pm tonight anywhere along the East Central to South Florida Coast. There could be some lingering storms over the interior until 11pm - midnight.


MONDAY: Much the same as today. Increased activity Tuesday/Wednesday.

Zig Zag lines are Ridge (high pressure) Axis'. The low level one is over East Central Florida, while the others are for the mid-levels. The legend speaks for itself in what the color code is for. In short, best concentration of storms with frequent lightning near Lake Okeechobee, SW Florida, and West Central Florida just west of Orlando Metro into West Osceola Counties, Polk, and Lake Counties. Other more isolated storms elsewhere, with probably less lightning due to less Low Level Forcing. Although, Lake Harney, Kissimmee, and those in Lake County could play in late today.

TROPICS: Sticking with the GFS for now, since there is little else to go by other than the Tropical Forecast Track Plots from guidance such as the LBAR (and 20 others). Still, these tracks for the most part are taking a developing tropical system which will likely become a depression to tropical Storm Emily in the next 24-48 hours roughly toward Puerto Rico. When push comes to shove, the system is forecast to curve just east of the Bahamas or along its eastern most islands and head toward Bermuda.  The GFS has been very consistent with this scenario, so holding on to its depiction for that reason....consistency. So far, this has been the Worst Case Scenario (to bear in mind) as far as a significant tropically developed system is concerned.  As should be expected, if the storm takes that track, it will be at its strongest right before it makes its most due north curve in the track..which would be about 225 miles east of West Palm Beach to that far east of Melbourne. This should be occurring around Friday night through Saturday, and is a representation of the Coriollis Effect which accounts for the earth's rotation and that parameter coupled with latitude/directional storm motion. Kind of complex, but point is, there is a reason for that notwithstanding other parameters that could negate this.


However! At this point, this is all speculation...could call it pure speculation now hedging on what seems to be a  'possibly , maybe good guess'. Either way, we are going to be hearing about this storm A LOT(!) in the weather arena for the next 8 days...get used to it. It should look very impressive on satellite presentations if nothing else, again, under the preconceived .."better than 1/2 baked extrapolations" at this point.


BEYOND: Under the assumption the Hurricane Emily takes this track (at time, expect it to peak as a strong Catergory 2 , minimal Cat 3 so far)...rain chances will go down for 48 hours during its closest pass and just prior to that, of Florida. This would be Thursday night through Sunday. After that point, the GFS still insists on a long term trough in the mid levels down the U.S. East Coast placing the state in moist, W-SW Flow aloft. Some days could be quite warm along the east coast if this will be the case, maybe even absent of a sea breeze on a day or two. Mid-level temperatures should be cooler once the Storm is far removed for the region. There are no other tropical concerns beyond "Emily", but the troughiness near Florida will need to be monitored for any unforeseen developments heading toward August 10-13 time frame.