Chances of Rain Increase This Weekend

HURRICANE RINA: Rina is in the center of this image. Note that one any northward track it will encounter more and more shear . Additionally, it will begin to interact with land on a continue Westward course of any fashion, and likely begin to entrain the dry air shown in orange over the Yucatan. The storm is best off it were to stay but, it is moving away from the best Ocean Heat Content waters, so expect it to be downgraded today.

TODAY: High pressure has built rapidly eastward since yesterday over the Deep South and into the Atlantic. It is also sinking southward a bit as well as anticipated. Early morning inverted coastal trough set up with the deeper easterly winds, with lows at the coast in the mid-70Fs where as inland temperatures were in the lower to mid 60Fs in north winds on the front side of the inverted trough. With daybreak, the inverted trough washed out and winds subsided as the north half of the state is more entrenched within the high pressure rather than being in gradient flow with low pressure over the Caribbean.  


There is an impressive inversion at all the locations resulting in broad but flat topped stratocumulus clouds resulting in some sprinkles, but heating of the day in an other wise cloud free sky is eroding those away. It appears per satellite imagery that small cumulus clouds are replacing these clouds in many locations. Guidance up until this morning indicated that some showers could occur near coastal Brevard after dark and north into Volusia which looks 'possible', but other wise another mild night in store.


THURSDAY: Much warmer all areas with highs in the low-mid 80Fs and a more southerly surface flow while high pressure persists across the state in the Mid-Levels. Deeper atmospheric moisture from far South Florida should work as far as Dead Central by sunset, but very poor lapse rates seems to inhibit a broad coverage of showers/storms despite ample moisture. Looks more like clouds once again over showers until later in the day working from Southern Portions toward Central Thursday night into Friday.


FRIDAY-SATURDAY Frontal boundary that has emerged from the Rockies is really dragging its "Southern End Heals" as the ridge that has moved into the Atlantic continuously rebuilds back toward the west across Florida and the Gulf. The front gets stretched thin buat manages to slide into North Florida and slowly south to Central where it remains until late Saturday. Best chance of rain for the peninsula on this day, but any Thunder appears to be restricted to far south Florida where low level winds converge more and instability will be the greatest. For good precautionary measure, could through in thunder as far north as Southern Osceola over toward Vero. Otherwise, heading into Saturday it appears the best chance of rain will be on and behind the front due to isentropic lift over Central, with the boundary and moisture from South Florida working South Through the day.


SUNDAY: Boundary appears will get to the frontal graveyard close the Florida Straits, but a secondary (and stronger system and associated jet stream streak now near the Aleutians (Bay of Alaska) will be dropping into the NW U.S. In response, the front buckles and lifts back north toward Dead Central to just south of I-4 by Monday increasing rain chances once again.


HERE is where the first predicament (of several) comes. The 00z ECMWF (European Model) has the developing low (cyclogenesis) from this newer impulse to occur over the Northern Gulf of Mexico south of Pensacola, whereas the 12Z (8am EDT) GFS run reads, "No Dice, the low will from in the Ohio Valley". Big difference as far as Florida is concerned in terms of any potential 'active weather' vs. the continued " status quo benign" pattern over the state per the past week.  For now, I'm hedging more toward the GFS trend since it also is no longer bringing Rita into the state (amongst other reasons such as continuity from the past 8 days, this model's trends in the past 96 hours, and La Nina climatology).  How strong/deep this secondary trough will eventually get is another matter, so Monday has two strikes against it now in regard to how well the weather for this time frame can be predicted.


BEYOND: Latest GFS is running with a very La Nina like pattern with perhaps a bit of a NAO (Negative Atlantic Oscillation) along the  NE U.S. Coast, so this region will be host to a variety of forecast conundrums all their own through the weekend and into next week if the NAO does appear to be developing. Locally, whatever comes out of the next few days and early next week, it appears that the October climatology that I'm most familiar with along coastal East Florida of NNE-ENE winds will prevail other than in the presence of a frontal boundary. This means that cooler ocean temperatures will be drawn down the seaboard, with near shore waters already in the lower 70Fs.  This helps set the stage for inverted coastal troughs with a more direct easterly flow that is at least 8,000 ft deep and not too strong. Thus, coastal cloudiness from time to time and perhaps some very light rainfall with round the clock 70Fs heading to later next week.


HURRICANE RITA: As of noon when I started writing this post, Rita was in a good position to hold its own strength, but was moving toward water of less Heat Energy as well as getting closer to land. Thus, believe the storm will start to weaken. If it weakens too much, it could get steered into the NE Yucatan and be 'gone', at least for a while. It is a very small storm, so it could weaken quickly. Any distance further from the coast could keep Rita alive and well though. Rita is also heading toward drier air to  its north and could start to entrain some of that drier air. Shear lurks just to the storms north as well, and the further north it progresses the stronger it gets. The GFDL run is now the only model taking it to Florida. With plenty of time to spare, and with the chance of Rita being nothing more than a tropical storm if that were to occur..this should not be a 'major' issue, but is worth watching just in case. 


IN SUMMARY: Much of what the weather will be like Friday through at Least Tuesday remains a difficult reading to make...the Crystal Ball remains foggy. Perhaps it's time to resort to a Snow Globe to shake things up a bit, but the Southern Branch Jet  across the Southern Gulf and Florida is not budging, which has been the biggest thorn in the 'forecast' side. Most of the active weather should be under and south of this feature, which means better rain chances for the Keys from time to time in the next few days. So far, the Friday/Saturday/and Sunday look to be the best days for chances of rain..but decreasing from north to south during this time frame.


*** Per The Weather Channel, Rina had been downgraded as I was getting ready to hit the "send" button.

Whether Which Witches Weather Wrist Watch is W-right?

IMAGE (11AM/TUESDAY): Old frontal boundary that provided the big cool down over Florida finally moving out into the Atlantic on its north end while the southern end lags well behind into the Caribbean. Storm system taking shape over the Rockies to move east today in the Plains with return, low level easterly upslope flow under cold, SW Flow aloft creating snow in portions of Colorado. High pressure building rapidly east northeast from Texas and into the mid-Atlantic at all levels today with return clockwise flow in the mid-levels eventually out of the east over Florida  but emanating (per streamline analysis) off Virginia by this evening, whereas longer fetch low level  flow across Florida will become more easterly across the state toward sunset and beyond. This shallow moisture return will  make for mostly sunny skies today with onshore moving stratocumulus clouds.  Hurricane Rina in the SW Caribbean moving little if at all last hour in a favorable area for strengthening, as long as it stays there. An eye was clearly visible last hour but then was obscured by the CDO (central dense overcast).  Ocean Heat Energy (the depth of warm water) is totally ample for the storm to sustain itself in this area of near zero wind shear, low level convergence, and upper level divergence.

TODAY: NE-ENE winds of 12-22mph this afternoon with a high  of 80-84F. Winds later today become more easterly and decrease a bit. Outflow cirrus clouds in the upper levels from Rina are being caught up in the Subtropical jet which has been in place 'for ages' across South Florida are  being advected to that area as a result. This should continue over this area through the day, but could come to an end tonight as a portion of the jet pulls away briefly from the state as the next trough/system approaches the Southern Plains. Overnight lows at the beaches tonight in the low 70Fs, and a good 5-10 degrees cooler further inland.

WEDNESDAY: Deeper on shore flow uniformly easterly could set up a coastal inverted trough, with moisture convergence along the coast for possible showers as soon as pre-dawn and through the day once moisture wraps from behind that frontal boundary well out in the Atlantic and manages to be advected westward around/ahead of the clockwise circulation of High Pressure building eastward into the Carolinas/Virginia and eventually centered offshore tomorrow.  Split flow over the Gulf from the departing Southern Branch tropics and the approaching Polar System (jet) in the Plains over the Gulf could induce formation of a mid-level trough into Thursday from the Central Gulf and across the Peninsula by nightfall. Once this happens, if it does, that would cut off the moisture feed by disrupting the deep easterly flow and end the chance of rain, but could  ALSO act as an elevated warm front from the tropics going into Friday (whole new story for a later time).

BEYOND: No point in going further at this point. There's as many model variations as there is hours in the 24 hour day going into Thursday through early next week. But a general observation of strictly personal note is that models are having an importunate time deciphering whatever the inevitable will be because we have 'officially' entered fall.  The general rule of thumb is that it takes one month from the time the sun is at whatever position it is at for the atmosphere to respond in the mid-latitudes through a DEEP layer of the atmosphere. The sun crossed the equator on Sept 22nd (astronomical fall). It is now just over one month later and now we have snow in the Rockies and a hurricane in the Caribbean. The mid-latitudes through a deep column are responding in earnest (granted, it has snowed already in the Rockes), while the lower latitudes are in the 80Fs with a hurricane.

The  problem the models are having is which pattern will be more dominant: 1) A polar jet stream and progressive pattern over all of the U.S.; or a 2) more progressive northerly jet stream pattern combined with a retrograding pattern in the low latitudes? Actually, both seem to be happening this morning ..and as a result the final outcome per each model varies vastly depending on which each side of the coin each one favors. To site a few examples relevant only to overnight and some early morning model runs. Or better put, these scenarios will change by later today:

GFS/FIM favored for Rina to work toward the Yucatan, getting sheared in the process, and passing toward the lower and middle Keys as a Tropical Storm going Depression. The GFS then weakens the storm further and drops it back south, whereas the FIM takes the storm toward Miami and up the east coast (after confronting high pressure in the SW Atlantic) toward Ft. Pierce then rapidly out to sea as the frontal boundary by that time is across Central Florida. Such a scenario could spell out the strongest winds across the Keys and then East Central due to pressure gradient winds in that area.

The other option is for the storm to never make it out of the Caribbean since that is where the most favorable environment for it will remain, with more shearing winds  on the approach in 48 hours to its north beyond the strong shear already in place. In fact, the latest NAM is now changing the focus of attention from Rina to Central Florida with another weak low to form along the inverted trough from the central Gulf to Central noted above. It takes this weak circulation to Central on Friday with very high PWAT air and a chance of thunder, whereas Rina is left almost in the some location it currently is placed, but closer to the Yucatan and being weakened due to its proximity to land.  

In all cases, the other thing to consider as far as detectable weather impacts is, "How far South will the front now passing through the Rockies and Plains actually proceed across Florida?". Model consensus seems to be leaning toward the actual front never clearing Central and South Florida, but rather merging with the area of low pressure Rina is within, while the actual front proceeds off to the east across the NE States. This is what is occurring now with the front out in the Atlantic and seems feasible.
Do note these forecast tracks:

    
IMAGE shows that the single level statistical models take Rina to Central Florida whereas the dynamical models and consensus/Ensembles leave it much further south or getting just so far north and shearing out/dying as impacts far South Florida.


It may be that those more northern tracks toward Central are actually from these models sensing development of a completely different low as advertised by the latest NAM run at 12z (8AM EDT), and to some degree the overnight ECMWF.


The  pink/red tracks across the Keys closely resemble the FIM/GFS tracks.  We also have Invest 97L not shown in the above graphic, well off toward the East Southeast of Rina. This system looks like its moving at the speed of light toward the West compared to Rina, and eventually will start to interact with the storm. Will it force Rina toward the east coast of the Yucatan or push it more toward the north? Will 97L even hold together? 

CONSEQUENTLY: A plethora of scenarios is coming into play varying from a tropical storm or depression to cross the Keys toward SE Florida to a possible severe thunderstorm threat across Central in the Friday/Saturday time frame depending on one's model preference as of early today. Too many factors are at play in the interim before late week to even supposition a confident gander. 


So far, the only thing coming to light appears to be that no cold air is on the way for Florida. The other flailing to consider is the old pre-conceived notion from the GFS of a 5-7 duration of onshore flow and coastal showers for the East Coast that has come and gone and then re-appeared since last week in its extended. In short, the forecast for late Thursday on Through Halloween weekend and into the beginning of next week is all as well as  perplexing, befuddling, and of course....frighteningly bewitching. 

Mostly Benign Fall Like Weather To Continue Through Wednesday

MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM PREVIOUS COLD FRONT LAST WEEK CONTINUES OVER/JUST WEST OF FLORIDA AFTER BEING REINFORCED TO JUST WEST OF THE STATE LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING EAST ACROSS TEXAS AND THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN NNW -NW WIND TODAY, COOL AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A RESULT WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXCEPT TOWARD SE FLORIDA

Been a few days since I've posted, as the forecast at that time has remained on track. ..although it has been entertaining to watch each and every model flip flop and disagree between and within themselves in even only the mid-range for a number of days concerning how this week will unfold. The long range has been a comedy, and this will likely continue during the change of seasons.  After tiring of watching the flip flops from one extreme to another, decided to post and run with La Nina climatology even though the presentation for today's post could certainly change, will run with the following for the short term with post- and re- flection  on past and future trends:


TODAY: Mid Level trough that was in place since our last cold front never cleared the state. That much was correct. A short wave trough that produced severe weather in Oklahoma over the weekend progressed east yesterday and dropped a portion into the mid-level trough over Florida that was already in place overnight completely moisture starved. Although mostly transparent, it did bring the dewpoints up a bit and reflected at the surface with a NW -WNW wind which should continue today toward sunset.  The old frontal boundary that was east of the state backed a bit on the southern end toward far SE Florida, whereas the more northern portion has moved on out into the Atlantic. Weak low pressure formed off the SE coast bringing some showers there yesterday, but that too should kick out by afternoon. At time, only clouds are over this area with showers mostly offshore. The clouds could remain a problem for most of the day until the 850mb trough moves out tonight. Otherwise, some high cirrus clouds thinly dispersed could pass over head Central and South Florida today with highs in the mid-70Fs, a bit warmer South Florida, although if the clouds remain near the SE Coast it's debatable.

Latest water vapor image shows the annotated dry air in orange, mid and upper level troughs, and minimal Tropical Storm Rina well to the south. Believe the NW motion at 6mph this morning is due to the passage of the first trough pulling it north. Once that trough moves further east tonight the northward motion should cease. In fact, per loops, it looks like it already has although the latest NHC does not state that to be so.

TONIGHT: Winds become more northerly to NNE overnight as the mid-level troughs finally start to move east of the state and high pressure builds across the Deep South in their wake. Coastal lows might occur within the first two hours of sunset, then level off toward the lower 70Fs if not rise after 3AM as winds blow across sea surface temperatures in the upper 70Fs...inland lows a good 8-12 degrees cooler from US1 and westward.  Hey, if one lives along and east of A1A, US1 is inland. 


TUESDAY: Shallow NNE-NE wind with a trajectory coming off the Carolina Coast will be moist only in the lowest levels making for another rain free day with perhaps some low topped / flat bottomed stratocumulus clouds with highs again in the 70Fs. Looks like another round of 24 hour 70Fs for the coast, with slightly cooler inland and west coast morning lows.


WEDNESDAY: High pressure at the surface builds further east into the Atlantic and mid-level high pressure finally starts to follow suit with deeper easterly flow although still coming off the Mid-Atlantic coast as opposed to a long easterly trajectory from well out in the Atlantic which otherwise would advect deep moisture across the state, or at least have the potential to. Could be a pocket of moisture convergence that will move across South Central Florida on this day resulting in light low topped showers there, but otherwise continued round the clock 70Fs for the coast, with daybreak and sunset stratocumulus clouds during the diurnal temperature change cycle (as the sun rises and sets). 


THURSDAY/SATURDAY: Gets messy. The latest GFS and now the NAM (since it extends toward this time frame) imply that the next frontal boundary which has been delayed a full 48 hours since first portrayed last week will stretch ENE-WSW along the southern branch subtropical jet, leading to passage of a pre-frontal trough with no temperature change associated with it toward Thursday afternoon. This boundary is to eventually align very close to the Florida Straits (the north side of them) by Saturday as the main front skims the North half of the state with a return to 70Fs and increased clouds after a warm Thursday. Timing will remain an issue probably for the next day or so, and impacts of the pre-frontal trough will depend on the time of day it moves through each area. So far, it appears that Thursday will be much warmer with highs in the low-mid 80Fs..with the better chance of rain over South Florida, showers possible almost anywhere until better ironing out of the finer details can be made. But do note, at one time this front has been portrayed to being everything from a squall line with 40Fs to follow, to being completely benign and dry with zero impacts other than a cool down. The morning run is favoring the later, but as a reminder, it could change on the next run.


SATURDAY/SUNDAY: High pressure quickly builds eastward across the Deep South into the SW Atlantic with return onshore flow. Very breezy with more 70Fs round the clock in shallow on shore flow. Any rains to remain south of Florida initially but should retrograde toward the Keys and far South Florida late weekend .


 TROPICS/RINA/PATTERN: All in all, the general pattern has been for quick moving systems to skirt across the northern U.S. very progressively with a near neutral to retrograding pattern over the South Florida and the Caribbean . Other than an occasional mid-level trough across the southern tier of states this area has been neutral. Southern Branch Jet Stream across Florida with an impulses being sheared out before dropping into the state as a result, and no impulses on the approach from off the Southern California coast leads to quick and moisture starved Northern Stream impulses since they cannot tap into deep moisture from the south and surface high pressure continuously re-establishing across Texas, the Northern Gulf, and North Florida means quick and ineffective cold frontal passages other than a wind shifts and a shot of showers. Very La Nina like .


Thus, the future of Rina remains problematic. For now, if one assumes the above paragraph, this storm will never pose a problem for Florida...and we'll have 
" 'Rinal' Failure". Models that are bringing it to Florida have it doing so by the weekend. For that to occur, they also show it strengthening , significantly at that, and being drawn further north, then being pulled ENE-NE ward ahead of the next front later this week. 


Never say never in these cases, so it is worth watching. But, given the trends of the past few days during 'down time', the GFS has not once brought it northward nor strengthened it to the level portrayed by those models that have brought it north. Shear should increase again north of the system tonight, so I'm favoring the idea it will be lingering in the same general area as late as Halloween.  We'll know soon enough ...but South Florida residents should at least keep an ear open for any rapid changes in strength and motion through Thursday.

Breezy and Cool, No Measurable Rain For 5 Days (At Least)

COLD FRONT now in the Atlantic South across Cuba will eventually go stationary as it confronts High Pressure further east. Low pressure at all levels wraps up over the Great Lakes. High Pressure building across all Southern Tier states and the Northern Gulf. Area of unsettled weather from the South Central Caribbean toward Central America to persist for at least another week...any development should be slow, but has potential for greater organization during the coming weekend. 

TODAY: Cool start to the day. Coolest in a long time. Tallahassee reached 37F this morning, coldest in the state and equal to that of Laramie , Wyoming. Other areas have been colder though from the north central Plains toward Minnesota where temperatures were in the 20Fs in many locales. Tornado in South Florida rated EF-2 on the Dr. Ted Fujito Enhanced Tornado Scale.


STRONG JET STREAM nearly over head. Florida is in the left exit region, so that combined with high clouds streaming northward from the Southern Caribbean off of an area of 'disturbed weather' could create some of the wisps of cloud overhead periodically. Circled are the speeds of those winds well aloft in knots (miles per hour is faster than those numbers reflected). In the summer months, for comparison, these values are closer to 5-15 knts.

Cold air stratocumulus clouds should continue to impact the west side of the state from Tampa and South on brisk WNW-NW winds off the warm Gulf waters. These could advect (push toward) South Florida and the lower Keys. A few streaks of high cirrus clouds could pass over head from time to time as well almost anywhere , but will be very thin.  Highs today along and north of the "Magic Dividing Line" in the upper 60Fs and in the lower to mid-70Fs south of the line, although temperatures along the immediate west coast could be a bit cooler due to the clouds. WNW-NW winds during early-late afternoon of 15G22mph, a bit stronger on the west coast side. No rain. Lows tonight in the lower 50Fs to upper 40Fs as far south as the north banks of Okeechobee. Immediate East Coast from Cocoa Beach South close to 56F.


FRIDAY: Cooler start to the day than this morning, with similar daytime highs, although it should warm up a bit more in the afternoon as winds decrease and become more northerly. No longer coming off of the Gulf, clouds should not be an issue tomorrow toward the west coast. Pristine afternoon.


SATURDAY: Very cool once again, but not quite as cool as Friday morning, A1A lows similar to Friday morning. Afternoon highs in the mid-70Fs most everywhere and almost clear.


SATURDAY LATE DAY: Possible light onshore flow from the NE, accompanied by a few stratocumulus clouds. ..especially toward sunset North Central. A minuscule few  raindrops could fall near the coast, but we'd have to be out side with palms raised upward to find them. Most likely if ever after dark.  


Watching the southern Caribbean. The NAM implies better organization or chance of tropical development toward Central America but will disregard at time due to zero impact anywhere either way. Precipitable water values should rise more over South Florida during this time and into next week, but believe any rain spits to occur Saturday or Sunday will be further north, when the mid-level trough (and cooler air aloft) finally puls east and lifts north, leaving a decaying mid-level boundary across South Central as has been depicted to occur by the GFS for several days now and which the NAM of this morning now implies will occur. Cooler air in the mid-levels NORTH of that boundary will improve mid-level lapse rates for potential rain spits, despite the more moist overall atmospheric profile further south where temperatures aloft will be warmer limiting lapse rates.


SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY : Similar to late Saturday, mostly sunny with a better chance of coastal clouds and a rain spit, mainly toward dusk and sunrise. Lows slowly warming from the east to west side into early next week, with afternoon highs in the mid-70Fs...warming to the upper 70Fs to near 80F plus or mins 2-3 degrees by Tuesday inland, but remaining near 78-79F along A1A. By Tuesday, the A1A corridor up and down the east coast could be in the 70Fs round the clock as winds blow  toward shore across water temperatures in the upper 70Fs. Inland highs several degrees warmer by Wednesday.


NEXT FRONT: The GFS is backing off with each and every run on the impacts the next front will have in the Thursday or Friday time frame. Due to slow moisture return, the latest run showed the front to go through dry with a resumption of one cool morning with a quick rebound to status quo to what we will experience by Monday. This seems a bit questionable though for South Florida, but even still is the consideration that the front never makes a clean passage at all. The GFS is very aggressive with that scenario though.


BEYOND: Latest GFS implies no rain until November 1 with very typical fall like weather. However, much  will depend on what happens well to the state's south. Given the latest trends of the Jet Stream though, believe any tropical development or system will never see the light of day on Florida, but showers will be on the increase across the middle and lower Keys heading toward mid to late week, or at least the chance of them will increase based on the latest information available.

 

Windy, Mostly Cloudy to Cloudy, Rain Chances End Mid Afternoon

Cold front approaching the Peninsula, with two other troughs behind it today. These troughs will affect the weather over the state (the last one in particular) through Thursday night

FLORIDA DODGED A BULLET: Although there were 3 tornadoes (so far) yesterday, no more appear to be likely as winds become unidirectional with height and helicity and instability are moving out and away. The Tornado Watch which had been extended  shrank in size overnight has since been lifted entirely. Yet, the most lightning seen  with this event has occurred and continues over the Keys mainly this morning, where heavy rainfall of over 14" has fallen there in some locations. By far, this was a "Key's Event" for the duration, with coastal SW Florida toward Ft Myers having one of their own.  Wind was never as strong as with the event further north in these locations as what occurred over a week ago though, with a peak gust in a storm of 43mph.  Three  tornadoes have been logged though per the SPC Storm Reports from their website:

TORNADO and Wind Reports noted per the color code. Preliminary.

Even though these tornadoes were reported, Florida still dodged a bullet compared to the rain (reign) of cannonballs that could have occurred had a few factors been different. Already noted previously was the warm air aloft being a negating factor. Another two major factors are that even though the surface low in the Gulf got a bit more organized, it lifted much more north rather that east. As a result, the warm frontal like boundary associated with it,  and the very richly moist and warm air behind that boundary, was never able to make it north of St. Lucie County. The boundary was never able to work north, being trapped underneath a 500mb jet streak from the sub-tropics.  Warm air aloft without the more buoyant moist air present over Central simply could not mold storms despite the tremendous amounts of wind energy present. 


Like a potter molding a vase, Central  had the spin but no clay. 


Even so, despite the fact that the wind energy was not as tremendous over South Florida, there was still 3 tornadoes. Image if that quality of air mass had extended north into the twisting wind profiles over Central and North Central Florida. Results could have been MUCH different.  Florida dodged a bullet, but it looked pretty clear this would be the case by late afternoon toward sunset.  The urgency placed by the press on this one was not unwarranted though, all things considering.  As noted often here, the word 'potential' means just that.  I could potentially scream in the middle of a church service, but chances are, that will never happen. 


TODAY: Cold front to clear Central Florida and South Florida almost simultaneously today in the 3-6pm time frame. The front is followed by WSW winds becoming West ahead of the 925mb trough, then eventually west behind that one. Winds breezy to gusty in the 18-23mph range, but gusts to 32mph might be in the offing. It does not look like we will see a long period of significant cloud breaks today, although there will be a period when we could see the sun briefly off and on..not likely over South Florida though. But at least it will not be cold with highs in the upper 70s toward 80F,very muggy and wet feeling.


TONIGHT: The latter of two boundaries will cross the state, with the 850mb trough (the third) hanging up a bit across Central and lifting northward, never quite clearing as high pressure builds in rapidly behind it from the NW Gulf and South Central Plains.  The associated areas of low pressure are being lifted north just as much as progressing east, all into an area of low pressure in the upper Ohio Valley. Very windy near the Windy City of Chicago (named for folks who blew hot air, not the weather). Which thankfully, will prevent Florida from getting all that cold.


THURSDAY: Cool with winds letting up substantially by morning, but picking up in the 15-22mph range in the afternoon. Skies could start out partly cloudy, but become cloudy at times with the last boundary and associated moisture with it in the area. Highs in the low 70Fs, but warmer by a 3-5 degrees far south Florida.


FRIDAY: Winds subside shortly after sunset with better clearing. Friday morning lows mainly in the mid-50s although a few lows near 48-52F are possible inland and west and south toward Okeechobee. The A1A corridor will be teetering and teasing the 6-0 mark on "Ole' Mercury', at least for a brief time give or take 2 degrees.  Friday afternoon similar to Thursday, with lighter winds and less chance of clouds even still.


SATURDAY/SUNDAY: High pressure in the low to mid levels will cross the northern Gulf and SE States over the weekend. Despite moisture still alive and well (but very shallow and much less), Florida will be on the descending side of the clockwise circulation around this high, clouds might have a harder time being seen except toward the Gulf Coast side.  Atlantic Stratocumulus clouds should stay well offshore through Monday afternoon with a light north wind in the afternoons. Lows remaining in the 50Fs inland and mid-60s along A1A.with highs remaining in the mid-upper 70Fs and near 80F far south.  


MONDAY/TUESDAY: Winds gradually become light and onshore Monday afternoon, but the depth of onshore flow will be to shallow to generate anything more that stratocumulus clouds.


WEDNESDAY: Here is where the line in the sand is drawn....potentially BIG CHANGES in store with two regimes Wednesday/Thursday...and then beginning next Weekend through the first week of November.


REGIME 1: Cold front will develop and move toward the state once the 700mb high pressure center moves east and off the coast of the Carolinas. A chance of onshore showers, and maybe thunder  late Wednesday with a front to move through around Thursday. As mentioned yesterday, the pattern of highs and lows begins to look quite bizarre, which usually means it could be exceptionally beautiful or the contrary for an extended time. So far, it is looking like the 'contrary' from near Halloween and Beyond.
In fact, it looks very typical for mid-fall some years. A not pretty one. 


Front moves through, but with a very rapid switch in winds to the NE-ENE at all atmospheric depths as the high off the mid-Atlantic is re-enforced, with possible onshore moving showers beginning within 48 hours after fropa (frontal passage). This is number one on the check list of 'questionables'.


REGIME 2: Contingent Upon the net affect of Regime 1. Our old TWO frontal boundaries. Both lying eventually across the Northern Caribbean ..don't forget them. One being from today and tonight, the other from mid next week. It is possible that cyclogensis could occur along these boundaries underneath the sub tropical jet.


THE GFS is implying that a tropical storm could form in the Central Caribbean and move west toward the western Caribbean generally south of Cuba. Tropical or not...perhaps just a large area of low pressure will be in place. Either way, this is to combine with strong high pressure over where else, the Carolinas. Sound familiar?  WINDY is the result, with showers. In fact, if the low pressure area develops per this latest run, sustained winds of 'sub Tropical Storm Force' could occur or develop about 3-4 days after Halloween, with our without a tropical storm.


At this point though, given the recent implications, even the word 'potential' to 'cry wolf' on for such an event is stretching it . More appropriately, there seems to be some long-range model consensus that high pressure will be to the north, and low pressure to the south. But how they will align and what comes out of it is an entirely different matter.

Tornado Watch (s) Likely This Afternoon/Tonight

SURFACE LOW COULD STRENGTHEN/ORGANIZE THROUGH SUNSET AND MOVE ENE TO NE.
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING IN THE WESTERN GULF. TORNADO POTENTIAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW BOTH AHEAD OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER, THEN FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND THE LOW APPROACHES

VERY COMPLEX SITUATION WHICH WILL LIKELY MORPH AND ADJUST THROUGH 11PM TONIGHT. FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: COLD FRONT, TWO PREFRONTAL TROUGHS, DEVELOPING LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A SMALLER LOW TO ITS SOUTH. PURPLE IS WHERE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE SHOWING UP NOW. A series of impulses ahead of the low pressure area and with it, along with several boundaries to develop going into tonight will likely further complicate the situation tonight

SIG TOR PARAMETER in bottom central portion of image. Total TOR threat through event I believe is between the purple lines, with an earlier threat over South Florida and spreading north toward sunset through midnight. Image is directly from the Mesoscale Analysis page at spc.noaa.gov.  

TODAY: Tornado Threat increasing per the latest Rapid Update Cycle and mesoscale analysis page. The Storm Prediction Center will likely issue a watch box in the next hour across portions of South and South Central Florida. However, an additional risk area could develop later today/tonight further north based on the RUC.


Watches are issued by The Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, OK. WARNINGS are issued by the National  Weather Service offices in the state, of which there are 6 in Florida. 


Be aware that even if you are not in a watch box, adverse conditions can occur outside of the boxed area. 


Based on RUC and NAM models blend: Surface low could strengthen/organize substantially as upper level trough and associated height falls move across the Northern Gulf early this evening. In the meantime, SE winds are working up the east coast of Florida, and the RUC implies that instability off the SE coast and around the Keys and the Bahamas could be drawn northward from the Western Bahamas to as far north as I-4 by midnight.


In fact, the RUC model predicts the temperature late tonight will be warmer than it is this afternoon as the low draws very warm and moist air with very high precipitable water values over 2.1" as far north as I-10.


As the low pressure area begins to incorporate wind shear elements of the approaching upper level trough, bulk shear will increase across the peninsula from the surface up to 20,000 ft, with the greatest bulk shear eventually to evolve in the lower levels across the South Half of the state between 8pm to midnight.


Meanwhile, unstable air could be drawn further north within this area of bulk shear and helicity in the 200-450 m2/s2 range from the surface to 3KM (possibly higher than that which is significant), particularly along and south of the Beachline as far south as Indian River County...as a low level jet also increases to 40-50kts after dark across all of South Central.


Granted, when we start throwing terms around like CAPE, shear, BULK shear, and helicity it gets a bit Aesopian..but to the meteorologist it all has significant meaning. Such as a new found archaeological dig would be to a historian.


The storm prediction center will likely be issuing a watch box shortly, but based on values 'on paper only', the parameters for why this watch will be issued are not as 'significant' compared to those of tonight if the RUC model verifies. Conditions could change rapidly toward sunset, so it is best to at least be aware of this fact prior to dinner time.


It is possible that at least one more watch box, if not two, could be issued later today through post-midnight as the situation develops further (if it does).

The SPC is eyeing this area. Go to the web site at www.spc.noaa.gov for latest updates and discussions, and click on mesoscale convective discussions.

OUTSIDE of the Tornado Threat, stronger storms with winds in excess of 60mph are possible across the peninsula late this afternoon through 3AM, decreasing from North to South with time, and last to exit South Florida tomorrow morning before noon, but likely much sooner. Winds just 2000 ft above ground are forecast to increase from JAX to VERO after 11pm, and any heavy rain storm to form in this environmental set up will be capable of bringing these winds to the ground. These winds are most likely on the EAST side of the state from JAX to Vero...then working south with time toward MIA by morning, but decreasing further south.


However, there is one key factor to negate a much, MUCH greater potential...that being the temperatures aloft. Gratefully, they are not forecast to be extremely cold. In fact, during the rain event of a week or so ago they were much colder (which was one reason for all of the rain).  This series of POTENTIAL events is all about the strong wind fields just over head to well aloft and the direction from which they blow at different levels of the atmosphere. Hence, bulk shear. It is also about vorticity (disturbances) and helicity (helical rotation ) in the horizontal being pulled upward and further twisted by diverse  speed shear and directional shear through the atmosphere combined.


AFTER TONIGHT: Cold front will finally clear Central Florida between 3pm -6pm tomorrow, perhaps a bit later.  It will be breezy on Wednesday behind and ahead of the front, with a few sprinkles along a prefrontal boundary and/or the front, but in between those boundaries it will be partly cloudy with mainly lower fast moving low topped cumulus clouds but before then we could see some 80Fs tomorrow before the front goes through. 


THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Winds gradually calming down with very cool evenings. Lows in the 50Fs to mid-upper 40Fs further north and highs in the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs. The coolest to cold morning will be Friday as winds taper off the most and possible atmospheric decoupling can occur.


As noted previously, it does not look like the mid-upper level trough will even completely clear the state, so rapid recovery is expected in the temperature department by Saturday morning into afternoon as winds turn more NE, but light. Any future rain chance will be held at bay until at least Monday, and will be light along the coast.


At least one more front could develop next week later in the week, but pass through dry with little fanfare, although the GFS in the long range is showing some very strange placements of troughs and ridges toward the last week of the month which raises an eyebrow, but so far nothing significant is expected to develop.


TODAY'S /TONIGHT'S/EARLY WEDNESDAY THREATS: Mainly possible tornadoes and strong wind gusts. Rainfall is not expected to be excessive, although heavy but brief rainfall could pose a problem for those areas still recovering from previous rains such as across Polk/Osceola Counties for example.


It is also possible a squall line will from overnight in association with the main low pressure area as it crosses North Central/Central Florida in tandem with a mid-level low toward Apalachicola Bay area, and eventually into South Florida.  It remains yet to be seen based on paper, whether or not such a line will develop, even in the short term models.


In fact, it might be that only the tornado watch which could be issued this afternoon will be the only one required. The above stated/written presents a worse case scenario.


If it remains to appear that a greater storm threat will be possible toward later tonight, a very brief post might be written up. Right now, it appears there is a  50/50 chance.

Mixed Bag of Rain, Wind, and Potentially Severe Weather to End Wednesday

As of 1:30pm, it looks like there might be tropical depression off the North tip of the Yucatan, although even though satellite animations show a definite very tiny 'swirl', it is moving around a broader scale cyclonic circulation toward the SSE.  Otherwise, jet stream level winds are spreading the denser cirrus and cirrostratus clouds across much of the peninsula, with heavier rainstorms (some rotating) over the lower 3/4th of the Keys where Miami Doppler Estimated rainfall totals so far show rainfall totals ranging from 3-14 ", but most is in the 4-7" range. Already, the Keys is experiencing a rain event, and more 'events' of subtopical origin could occur elsewhere in the state through early Wednesday.

NOW: What appears to be a diffusing warm front over far South Florida is working slowly northward piece meal as high pressure stretches from the western Atlantic across the north half of the state in the mid-levels. High pressure should retreat slowly as an approaching trough works eastward from the north and central Plains, further developing east of the Rockies across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas by sunset.
Image below is for midnight. 

The low pressure area near the Yucatan should remain in the same general location through tonight and begin to lift north prior to daybreak, Tuesday. The series of diffuse warm fronts lift north with it as does the rain chance.
It appears the best chance of rain outside of South Florida later today will be near the east coast toward East Central along an axis of instability as the warm front works north. Some showers have already formed and dissipated toward South and Central Brevard and inland, but have since diffused under the canopy of thicker high clouds.

 After 48 hours of model runs and a lot of changes with them, the general outlook posted here on Saturday sums up to be pretty much the same thing as posted then. 


Two Tiered system with several imbedded impulses and vortmaxes to impact the state mostly from sunrise Tuesday through Wednesday in various shapes and forms, with differing results depending on where one is located.


Rain showers most likely to approach the east coast to inland by late afternoon Central toward sunset, with the chance working northward by Tuesday morning. This will not be a continuous rain by any means, but some thunder could be thrown in for good measure, most likely elevated.

TUESDAY: Chance of a tropical storm developing. However, any bone fide tropical storm to form does not appear will actually make land fall as one. The NAM is showing a warm core low to form up through 20,000 ft, but the system is quickly torn as the approaching cold front from the WNW moves in. In doing so, the surface low is displaced from the upper level core which progresses east while the surface low lifts toward the Florida Big Bend. Actually, the NAM shows the warm 500mb core to cross Central Florida along with a developing warm front from the west as the low moves to the NE. This is shown further down in the post.


Using the CIMMS tropical cyclone site as a reference, the Ocean Heat content near the Loop Current could play a critical role in development of this storm system. It is important to note that whether or not this system is named, the results of the impacts could come out to be quite similar either way. In this image the red on the top of the image is dry air, while the colors in the Eastern Gulf are the warmest ocean temperatures west of Tampa. Models have been showing actual storm tracks varying from Dead Central to the Big Bend in direction, but what might happen in reality is that there will be two storm systems with different characteristics tracking along with them both.

INVEST of interest north of Yucatan is circled in dark red. To the NE of that "I" is the warmest Gulf water/Heat Energy. North of this location is dry air at the moment. This will move out later tonight. A storm could form 'of name' in this area, or at least all the parameter formidable for storm formation will explode with energy either way. 

Below are some model tracks for a potential surface low, if one truly forms. My take, or opinion, is that if a truly tropical low is to form it would only remain tropical or subtropical by taking a track across Central to South Central Florida. Otherwise, models indicate it will become rapidly absorbed into the much larger scale trough by Tuesday late afternoon if it continues to be guided more northerly to NNE as the GFS/NAM indicate. 

This is why it is interesting why the NAM is showing the warm core aloft  to move across Central while the surface low takes off more toward the NE and the Big Bend region or more toward the south north of Tampa Bay. See image below, and the orange warm core across Central , west of Orlando, on Wednesday morning at 2AM. I did not draw that it, it is model derived.

I'm thinking the biggest concern with the system in the rotating storm (tornado) department will come with that core / trough couplet and the associated wind fields as they appear will cross the state from SW Florida near Cape Coral area and across the state , exiting the east coast from Central Volusia south toward Indian River county from near sunrise Tuesday toward just after dark. 


Meanwhile, the parent and more substantial low will track toward Cedar Key through the Big Bend and interact with the approaching cold front bringing larger rainfall totals from Gainesville and North to Jax and along I-10  toward Tallahassee in a short amount of time.


WEDNESDAY: The front should be clear of Central Florida by mid-late afternoon. Whether there will be much rainfall with it is still up for debate. As of yesterday there appeared there would be a period of heavier rain across Central as the front temporarily locked up, but now it appears it will go through with nothing more than cloudiness and light rain. There is clearly much more to be learned and followed as the events unfold, and so far this one particular aspect of the system seems to be of minor concern (based on the morning GFS at least).


THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Very cool ... coldest mornings since early spring, with lows in the mid40s through the 50s as far South as Far South Florida. Overall, Thursday will be the coldest from sunrise to sunset, with Friday being the day that the most of the state   being simultaneously cooled from north to south.


SATURDAY: Winds should start to swing slightly onshore by morning along the east coast making for a noticeable warm up. The models (GFS) has been consistent with hanging the trough at the mid levels behind over Central or South Central Florida in all cases, thus rapid air mass modification with the onshore return flow and eventually low topped showers reaching the coast by Sunday or Monday. The GFS in the last run is holding off on the showers until Monday now, but impacting the coast to 20 miles inland for 2 days. Previous runs indicated showers could move in as soon as early afternoon Saturday, so this too will have to be re-evaluated late week.


BEYOND: It appears that perhaps two backdoor cold fronts could move through next week toward next weekend with little change in winds other than some wind surges from the NE to ENE, and a break in showers between them. Timing is difficult and changes with every run when these will occur. The latest morning run shows a very showery day for all of coastal NE-East Central Florida on Halloween. Lows and highs likely remaining the 70Fs round the clock.


TROPICS could could continue from north of Central America north through much of the Caribbean....through the end of the month.


STORM IMPACTS:
RAIN: Largest rainfall totals outside of the Keys (ongoing) will be along the cold front/Gulf low merger over North and parts of North Central Florida. Although totals will not be as high as what was experienced with the last event, the rain will fall in a much shorter amount of time. Areas further south toward Central and South Central will not receive as much rain most assured as before, but already filled retention areas and high ground water could easily result in a resurrected flood threat despite the lower rainfall totals over a large area. Areas across Central will likely not experience the bigger totals due to fast shower/storm motion, but training could amount to much higher localized rainfall. Parts of SE Florida might also deal with some flooding threats in the more fabled, flood prone areas.


WIND: Strong winds of 35-55moh (at least) could occur near the Big Bend toward Brooksville and swath across North and North Central Florida from JAX to northern Volusia County, but possibly as far south as Central Brevard. The strongest winds forecast are actually just above ground at 2000 - 10,000 feet, but in heavy down pours these winds could translate to the surface .   Trees will be able to fall in these stronger winds more easily now with loosened/weakened soils in place, and additional rainfall will further aggravate the situation. The other way of looking at it though, is that the last system likely cleared up many of the already loosened or rotten fronds and branches.


STORMS: This entire event looks more to be a function of wind shear and kinematics rather the thermodynamics. Only the South 1/2 or 5/9th of the state are ever indicated to be have appreciable unstable conditions. Regardless, there appears to be a tornado threat at different times from SW Florida near Naples and along a swath extending ENE ward along and ahead of what could be the remains of any tropical type features that might be directed across the state as   a north/south running warm front or trough toward all of Brevard and portions of Volusia and Indian River Counties. This would include Sarasota, Lakeland, near Naples, Cape Coral, Polk, Osceola, Orange/Seminole Counties, parts of Lake and Volusia Counties. But this is just for starters. 


Even if instability is lacking, this system appears could act more like a tropical system with warm air aloft, and as such it will all be about the wind directions aloft and bulk shear between various levels of the atmosphere. Thus, if it comes to the point that warnings are deemed necessary, a tornado would be possible even without vast amounts of lightning. Another way of thinking of it is, any storm with more than an occasional rumble might be a big trouble maker . 


The reality in my mind is that things will unfold probably nothing like what I'm imaging or how the model rain fields are shown, nor in the way they are expected to form. The truth, or some semblance of it will evolve as things happen. Thus, early Tuesday through midnight Tuesday night so far seems to be the time for extra precautions to be at the first and forefront.


This systemh as the potential to go down in the annuls of Florida's meteorological history , if for nothing more than a case study....the Keys are likely already on their way for breaking a rainfall total record, and other records could be on the way to be broke almost anywhere. 

Potentially Volatile Period Monday-Wednesday Awaits a Verdict

Full Moon and Jupiter Prior To Sunrise Friday

OVERALLTODAY: Short lived cold frontal impacts quickly modifying today, with the boundary along the northern Florida Straits. Breezy NE-NNEwinds will gradually veer to ENE-E on Monday through mid-day.


Rain and some isolated thunder has been on going across the Keys today, with totals already over 1" in some locations. This activity is expected to continue through tomorrow and gradually lift northward into Dade, Broward , and Southern Palm Beach Counties later today through Sunday afternoon bringing some larger rainfall totals to mainly Collier, Dade, Broward and at least the southern 1/2 of Palm Beach County.


Meanwhile, low pressure in the northern Great Lakes is expected to lift north toward James Bay and merge with another low pressure area trekking across Southern Canada through Tuesday. This second low pressure area will gradually aid to develop a stern cold front appendage across the North and Central Plains States after interacting with the Lee of the Rocky Mountain chain on Monday which will head toward the Deep South on Tuesday.


Further south, our old cold front, after having made a visit to the tropics, will be lifting north in response to the approaching trough out West,   as what I'll refer to as a modified sub-tropical warm front (for purposes here only). Sub-tropical in the sense that it will be transporting tropical moisture with it from the Caribbean. Low pressure in the far SW Caribbean appears will drift WNW-NW in the next 48 hours, but never congeal into a certified tropical system, at least not at this point.  


As this modified cold front turned sub-tropical warm front lifts north, so too does the rain chance into South Central Florida on Monday afternoon through evening. After 24 hours worth of various depictions (which have varied vastly), the GFS is back to where it started, only about 6-12 hours faster with the moisture and rain return northward.


SUNDAY: For the region north of Palm Beach county Sunday will be much like today, with continued high clouds and perhaps more mid-level clouds and a few lower clouds. Further south, rain showers and thunderstorms will continue, with several inches total anticipated as the boundary lifts north. Winds to remain from the NE-ENE but gradually veer toward the East on Monday and E-ESE with the approaching boundary.

TODAY: Green shows best chance of showers and thunder today. Yellow is the cold front of yesterday morning. Arrows point to anticipated lift of the boundary through Monday, with more northward motion from the east than from the west side. Low pressure in the SW Caribbean, low pressure near Lake Superior, and High Pressure which is generating the winds of today and Sunday over the Deep South combined with low pressure to the south. 

MONDAY: The GFS of 8AM has sped up both the approach of the warm front as well as that of the developing cold front in the Plains. Thus, since this is the first run of this nature, timing remains uncertain in regard to when the rain will reach Dead Central (mainly only at the coast initially until the cold front moves closer).  But all in all, the GFS and morning North American Model (NAM) match close enough that rain will work up to Southern Brevard by Monday afternoon with some reaching North Brevard by shortly after sunset. Meanwhile, rain will continue over South Florida but begin to decrease as the boundary lifts north. Just how far north this rain will proceed is another big question. Previous runs had the boundary clearing completely all of Florida, but with the now faster  approach of the cold front of the morning GFS, it never gets much further north than Southern Volusia County (??!) 


MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: Potential  for volatile weather across any portion of Central Florida. To Be Re-Evaluated Through Sunday Morning.


The latest NAM and GFS agree in general on some of the wind fields that eventually are to unfold, but the timing differs by as much as 12 hours with the GFS being the faster for a change and more turbo-charged.


This is quite a surprise, so not sure exactly what to make of it yet. The ECMWF, per discussions, is not as dynamic with the depth of the approaching trough. This , in turn, would have a considerably assuaging effect on the outlook for this time frame (less potent).  Winds to become more ESE-SE-SSE on Monday night as the warm front lifts north and meets the gradually lifting out divergent southern branch jet stream winds. Showers increase, with the potential for thunder along the east coast from Ft. Pierce to Port Canaveral by sunrise.


Meanwhile, the GFS is forming a disturbance along the boundary in the SE Gulf which greatly impacts the southern Tampa Bay region toward Sarasota. Thus, the focus shifts from South Florida to Central Florida on Monday no matter which model of preference or timing is chosen.


With the faster approach of the morning GFS run, the bigger impact is now toward Tampa rather than the Big Bend area. 


The greater concern other than the astounding 9+ inches of rain the GFS forecasts on the West Coast is the  increasingly veering of winds with height. The latest GFS has a disturbance accompanying (or rather, responsible) for these winds to develop a  swath from near South Tampa Bay, across the state toward North Brevard during daylight Tuesday. On the other hand, the NAM is faster at this point, developing it overnight into Tuesday morning. In either case, wind profiles are supportive for what could be a tornado watch, lasting or varying in location for up to 18 hours anytime from post Midnight Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon.  The one ingredient missing during the time of favorable wind profiles is instability and only mediocre lapse rates. But given the wind fields shown, and the large loop in the hodograph (left ,below),  and using Orlando as a central point of reference..... :

...the chance of a tornado threat seems to be a viable option to investigate in greater detail with subsequent releases/versions of the NAM and GFS models. Accompanying which would be very heavy rain in thunderstorms and rainstorms working across the state. Thus, this is nothing like the event of last weekend.


WEDNESDAY: The actual cold front will essentially absorb the warm front, stretching out a mid level trough across North Central Florida. It looks like there could be yet another form of rain resultant from isentropic lift along and behind a rapidly moving but very shallow and potent  warm front turned cold front heading into the late Tuesday through Wednesday time frame.


 Again, timing remains a big issue at this point, but this was shown to occur in yesterday morning's run (but not shown in subsequent runs). So who knows. One run showed literally no rain event anywhere. But already, South Florida's (so far, just the Keys) event seems to be in the works.


THURSDAY: The cold front could sweep through, as is shown in several runs, but it will shallow, brief, and a bit  more 'potent' in the temperature department compared to what we are used to. On the other hand, like this last front it looks relatively brief, with a wind shift to the NNE to NE by Saturday morning. Even this temperature potency of lows in the 40Fs and 50Fs to South Florida is debatable, the GFS has tended to over extend itself with the previous two fronts in the long range.  In the mean time, the mid-level trough never really clears the state as high pressure builds rapidly behind this potentially dynamic system quite quickly well to the north of Florida.


FRIDAY: By this time, we might be talking about a wind surge moving in on northeast Florida and working down the coast, eventually engulfing the entire east coast by late Saturday. ..with rapidly modifying temperatures in tow. If the GFS is correct (which it seldom is this far out in time so far this season), mid-level temperatures are very cool aloft, but upper level temperatures are relatively warm. The net affect is considerable cloudiness and brief, low topped rain showers working down the coast with time during the course of next weekend.


By the next Saturday time frame I quit looking since  reliability in the model decreases logarithmically in the "Great Beyond", and next Saturday is getting beyond even that.