Wet Pattern Emerging Today - Strong Storms Possible Saturday-Monday (?)

On This Date, 2018, large Rainfall totals occurred in parts of Brevard County, Including Cape Canaveral

Localized street flooding

TODAY: Not necessarily expecting a day like 'last year on this date', but rain chances for many areas Central to East Coast will be on the 'up tick' today, and more so in days ahead.

Not much change from previous post, as a mid-upper level low pressure area (a complex one) along with the surface features is only but now gathering its 'wits and steam' over parts of North Central Oklahoma southward toward the lower Mississippi River Valley Basin region, including parts of Southern Alabama and Mississippi.

 In coming days the area of low pressure will shift east and further south, fully displacing any prospects of a dominant Western Atlantic High Pressure ridge over the state, with an  increasing cyclonic flow/circulation over the state come the weekend as Florida comes fully into the localized affects of this aforementioned complex system.

With increasing southerly flow today through multiple lower levels of the atmosphere into the mid-levels and increasing moisture as well , coupled with a stacked south to southwest flow surface and above, the east coast sea breeze will not make nearly as much inland progression today north of around Vero Beach. 

It is possible that activity could even go up sometime after 2 pm very close to the coast in preferred locations (namely, near Lake Okeechobee and North Merritt Island) but the bigger event for today will be when the west coast sea breeze makes it's meeting with the east coast sea breeze later in the day.

Temperatures aloft are not all that cold, nor are winds strong and with less likelihood of any 'dry layers' aloft, the risk of 'severe category wind gusts' decreases. The bigger story I suspect between today well into next weekend will be 'sum total rainfall totals', possibly exceeding 5 Inches 'somewhere' in the state, possibly near the Nature Coast (the Big Bend area), but other areas could get larger totals on days like today when storm forward motion will be slow and erratic.

FRIDAY: So far, not much change from today is forecast. Granted, chances are each and every day from here on out will have it's own 'flavor' and/or 'type'  and how storms/showers evolve one day might well be dependent  upon boundaries laid out from previous day's activity as well. 

There is a bit more of a shift though come the weekend.

WEEKEND-MONDAY: The upper level features are advertised to make their closest pass to the Peninsula.

The GFS is consistent in lowering upper level temperatures and increasing mid-level winds. 

This could result in deeper convection, higher rainfall totals in a short amount of time, and stronger wind gusts; on the other hand, it can also mean but early initiation and quick motion off the east coast and residual cloud cover the remainder of the day. 

How things will evolve ultimately is up to how the 'cards fall' at this point. 
All in all, many will see much needed rainfall.

More to come in detail concerning the weekend time frame through Monday in future posts. Could be interesting.

NEXT WEEK: Continued variations to what by then will be 'the same old theme, different day'.

The mid-upper level features are forecast to abandon the Southeast states and lift north and east after Monday and/or Tuesday, but Southwest Flow aloft continues until at least Thursday. After that point, the Atlantic Ridge axis attempts to re-assert it's position across either South Central or Central Florida.  

It won't be all 'wet ' though. The GFS is showing that there is a chance at least parts of the state might  be 'dry slotted' perhaps on Sunday or Monday, so time will tell. If we are 'dry slotted' that means there would be specific areas that nearly to most definitely would not see rain that day.

The next issue, however, is whether a tropical entity (if nothing more than organized moisture) will have manifested near the Yucatan awaiting on the wings to be advected northward toward the Panhandle and in part, the peninsula as well come later next week.

This is too far out in time to be of concern at this point. 

Yesterday, the GFS had abandoned the notion that a potentially 'Named System' could impact the Western Panhandle, but then it brought it back again in a later run. 

 What will be seeing come 8 days from now (as one ought expect would be the case) is where else? Up in the air.

"Wet Season Suddenly on Tap" Thursday into Much of Next Week?

Testing a Wide Angle Lens   June 9, 2016  on a Storm to the West of Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Getting  an 'early start' on some showers going up along the East Coast Sea Breeze as of around 10:20AM along the west banks of the intercoastals. This activity will only slowly progress westward if at all. Once the Sea Breeze kicks in most of it might dissipate, only to re-emerge later in the day further inland.

Meanwhile, the west coast sea breeze will generate and work away from that coast.
The Short-Range and mid-range guidance suppose they will confront each other very close to the SR27 Corridor or very close to just west of the North/South Spine of the state between 5-6pm.

Meanwhile , steering winds aloft, though a bit 'east to west' early on over the Southern 1/3rd of the state, will progressively become more 'West to East' after dark and into all day Thursday and beyond that point well into next week. They are all but already nearly 'west to east' near to north of I4 even now.

But for today, the post considers the sea breeze collision well into the interior with a slight favoring toward the east coast along to north of I-4 as a result of the winds noted in the preceding paragraph. 

In fact, some activity might be able to work off the east coast across Volusia/Flagler Counties near or after dark up through 9-10PM, if as nothing more than
light-moderate rain showers. Will far North Brevard too get into the picture for rains later tonight too?  Time will tell, but the change is on .

THURSDAY: Pattern swing erupting faster than foreseen from but only two days ago. 

What was thought to be an overall 'west to east' pattern in storm motion on Sunday is beginning to now show signs of arriving as soon as Friday. 

Though steering will not be all that strong, it is nonetheless to be present. Temperatures aloft are not all that cold, so looking at this point for run-of the mill type activity heading into the weekend.

The cause of the change of pattern is a mid-level trough forming over North Texas which will be moving east across the lower latitudes the next several days. As it progresses east the high pressure ridge centered over Florida - off the east coast will slacken and drop south, to eventually being out of the picture altogether; this then would be placing the state in Cyclonic Flow near that mid-level low pressure region-and around to near the base of the approaching associated trough  .

Increasingly the winds aloft and eventually at the surface are forecast to become  southwest to west-southwest with time. So much so,that the east coast sea breeze might be prevented from forming completely come early next week. 

Additionally with the approach of this trough, moisture pooled ahead of it,and some drawn northward will overspread the state. 

Forecast precipitable water values are varying from 1.7" to 2.2' inches on nearly a daily basis from Thursday up through Thursday of next week, at least.

FRIDAY -THIS WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: The GFS Guidance implies the state will be in an increasing cyclonic flow around low pressure centered over Georgia and into the Carolinas with increasing moisture in the mid-upper levels. 

That means 'westerly' type winds with an increasing chance that we will not be seeing an east coast sea breeze some of the days coming up. 

With increased moisture as well, this all could mean 'early onset' days. 

That means, showers/thunderstorms could come into the picture as early as before noon, even mid or early morning along the West Coast and work toward the East Coast by early afternoon. 

All this is speculation at this point,but it sure looks like that might be the case from here.

With increased moisture, we will see increased cloud cover, so that despite the absence (potentially) of an east coast sea breeze, cloud cover and/or earlier onset of showers and storms would preclude us from experiencing very warm temperatures. 

Actually, from today on out temperatures appear will run the 'normal gamut' by and large well into next week; (that is to say, other than the chance of near record breaking 'record warm minimums overnight' especially along some of the east coast reporting stations). 

Once we get more into a 'westerly flow from the bottom up' going into the weekend that risk will go away though as well.

SUMMARY: Increasing rain chances most locations begins especially around Sunday. There appears that somewhere between SUNDAY-TUESDAY we could see STRONG STORMS as well, but that is too far out in time to dig into details for why that would be using the variables required to make that assertion that are too 'fine' to know of with any certainty at this point. Rainfall TOTALS across all days from Today through the end of next week
could amount to SEVERAL INCHES in a few locations,especially over preferred Polk, Osceola, Volusia, Seminole, Orange, and Lake Counties.

All in all, with the prospects of higher PWAT (precipitable water) atmospherically for such a prolonged length of time right into mid-June, we might be able to consider that going from today into the weekend we are welcoming the Wet Season afterall (?)

One Last Chance for East Coast For Showers/Storms Today

Thunderstorm offshore Cape Canaveral, June 1, 2017

TODAY: Literal variation today from yesterday, at least in regard to sensible weather. There is some 'invisible' variation though from yesterday. 

Forecast soundings are indicating a bit of an 'inverted V' type of profile, which is conducive for strong wind gusts in any heavy downpour  (or near them) that could or can develop. The issue with a sounding such as one being forecast (if it is real, and we'll know more when the latest KSC sounding comes in later this morning) is that if there is not just the right amount of moisture above 'the V" of the sounding, storms won't form at all.

Given the current trends in short range guidance and going with persistence, will liken today a bit  to yesterday. There are times when rain patterns occur in twos or threes from my observation,so if that is the case, we might end up seeing only a 'true' storm or so near the east coast very late despite what forecast models are showing in the forecast precipitation depiction of 'daytime' storms (but that is just a hunch). 

That was the case last night around 9 pm as a few storms suddenly erupted in the dark of night over Brevard County but during the day there was only one in the South Central area.

Storms moving offshore after dark

 That said, warm today, even at the beaches until the sea-breeze can form.
There is a chance it won't truly manifest until after 2 pm or so. Yesterday, it but barely penetrated inland any further than SR 3 in Merritt Island, at least that is, as of 4 pm it had not yet gotten any further inland than that (but if you were at the beach, who would know?).

Given the Inverted V profile of the forecast soundings and temperatures aloft being on the 'cool' though not overly 'cold' side, wind gusts in storms could be in the 40-45 mph range  easily (nothing damaging), but we might end up hearing some marine weather statements and who knows, maybe even a severe warning if things really ramp up which at this stage looks unlikely but not out of the range of possibilities.

TUESDAY: Pattern change as onshore flow (from the east) and steering becomes the dominant mode. The NAM (model) is showing pretty good coverage of activity down the spine of the state toward the west coast tomorrow, with the East side left high and dry; however, high cirrus cloud cover blow off from thunderstorm tops might spread across the east half of the state in various areas late day, resulting in a vague overcast by sunset.

WEDNESDAY: This day is being thought to be 'repeat' of Tuesday. The latest NAM just now coming in says, 'to the contrary' though. 

It is implying better sea breeze convergence right down the spine of the state with a slight trend to drift eastward. Given this  new manifestation, and one time observation only to this time, won't buy into it until subsequent model runs come in and there is agreement with other guidance.

BEYOND: Apart from the questionable 'Wednesday' will go with continuity with the GFS which once again shows a pattern shift over the weekend, with storms mainly focusing over all parts of the interior away from either coast, with a slight trend to favor even the beaches east-side by Sunday evening (but barely).

Even after that from Sunday onward toward mid-next week  the GFS continues to imply the onset of (to the bloggers opinion) the 'Wet Season" ; that being precipitable water values at or above the 1.7" mark on a nearly continuous basis. 

That does not mean that suddenly everyone is going to get rained on, or that one might even get any rain for a week at all. Only that the moisture is available for storms. Other factors such as temperatures aloft, low to mid level atmospheric instability, varying triggers other than sea breezes such as 'vorticity maxes' and upper level temperature variations all combined play a role in where, when , why and how showers/storms will form and in what direction they will go.

The supposed 'tropical entity' for late late in the period (mid-month) seems to have disappeared from the GFS model now, which could have threatened the Gulf Coast, but moisture being lifted northward is still being advertised. (this is not a reference to the same INVEST currently getting attention).

 Given that, would think that the Wet Season will begin some time within the Jun 9-14th time frame.

Showers and Some Thunderstorms Again Possible Today (Watch out Beaches)

Arcus Cloud takes the Lead ahead of a  June 11, 2014 Storm - Cape Canaveral 

TODAY: Not much difference from yesterday, though from latest radar showers are getting an earlier start inland as the move eastward. The KSC mid-morning sounding came in colder aloft at  20,000 feet and 10,000 respectively by a degree or two from yesterday.

 Precipitable water was lower but is forecast by all guidance to increase, likely due to mass convergence ahead of the west coast sea breeze as it approaches the Florida East Coast. 

The East Coast Sea breeze will set up shortly (early afternoon) but not likely make too great a headway into the interior  since the west coast sea breeze as of 12:30pm is almost half way across the state.

Instability overall is on par with average so again today looks like standard fare storms wise (some will not see rain at all today, whereas others might get over an inch near the east coast where some back building and boundary interactions will prolong rainfall in isolated locations).  Though a 'red zone' for the blogger for 'stronger storms' is being noted -- it's all conditional upon boundary interactions and as is always the case, unpredictable if and or where any such 'stronger storms' will be made manifest, let alone 'where' that would be.

MONDAY: As of now, Monday looks like a repeat performance of today, but with less coverage. We'll have to wait until  'the day of'  to know for certain; however, since little much aloft is going to be changing 'air mass' wise and temperatures aloft might warm up some which would by virtue of that fact tend to make activity more isolated and of less strength, it might be safe to say for now that there will be isolated to scattered storms again Monday which will move from west to east.

TUESDAY- FRIDAY: Pattern Change. Steering winds will turn from west to the east coast to the other way around. For the east coast , this means little to no rain chances, but for a scant chance a shower can form as the sea breeze kicks in which will likely be early on in the day. 

Best coverage will be across the west half of the state, and on some days even that might be a bit limited.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Another pattern change, favoring the interior direct then shifting to favor more of the East Coast once again come Sunday. Temperatures aloft might remain rather warm, so no 'severe' weather is foreseen and how much moisture for there to be showers/storms even if steering does favor the east coast is in question at this point in time (too soon to know). Meaning, even if 'steering' does favor the east coast, that doesn't mean there will be storms to be steered!

NEW: As of the latest GFS our 'Introduction to the Wet Season' might not be too far away. Indications of either a tropical system making headway toward the Gulf Coast Region from near the Yucatan come mid-June (which would be normal) is being indicated and/or merely a pattern that would favor a moisture surge from the Tropical Caribbean northward with high pressure  centered will to the east of Florida at multiple-atmospheric levels could bring the 'tidal wave of  'deep tropical moisture' northward. 

If a tropical system were to lift northward it would surely bring the moisture with it and trailing behind it and from there on out we'd be in it for the season (off and on). 

Otherwise, if high pressure does indeed situate itself well to the east, circulation around the high will lift it northward. At time, it appears to be a combination of both, but it is really too far out in the forecast timetable to say for certain.

Some Locally 'Strong' Thunderstorms Possible East Half of State

TODAY: What a difference a day makes ! There was one bona fide 'severe' thunderstorm yesterday in Volusia County over the peninsula  that  produced hail up to 1.00" briefly. The storm came and went in an hour and a half. Today looks like a different deal, that is, more of the same possible but greater in coverage (and possibly strength).

Situation: Much more moisture across the boards and up into the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Instability is already much greater than it ever got yesterday before noon time, with lifted indices around  -4 to -6 and likely will 'increase' (yesterday, the lifted index was close to non-existent).

Upper level temperatures are not all 'that cold' however, but cool enough combined with some support of mid level lapse rates north of SR 60 to take note on. Low level lapse rates? No problem...they seldom are in the summer over Florida except on cloudy days. There is also some effective shear in the upper levels across mostly the south half of the state. Sum total, different parts of the state have various parameters working for them to support thunderstorms for varying reasons.

The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh indicates that later in the day 'bulk shear' will be greatest from the surface on up into the atmosphere along to east of the East Coast Sea Breeze, namely from just west of I-95 and points east. Hence, would watch for a surprise, 'strong storm' especially in that area (nearer the coast line from Northern Volusia south toward Palm Beach County). Some storms could be prolific lightning makers though those will be quite isolated in nature, as would any 'hail producer'.

 At time, the NWS nor  The Storm Prediction Center is making a call for 'strong storms' explicitly, but would keep an eye out today to the west through west-northwest as that is the direction from which storms will be moving today just in case, and prepare for strong wind gusts in or near the vicinity of certain storms.

Activity could last well past sunset in some locations, that is, up through 9pm, but the strongest will occur with boundary interactions from previous shower/storm activities which establish  new activity along the east coast sea breeze just as it is to meet up with the west coast seabreeze. Said activity might move eastward, but would also follow a path outlined by some other boundary already laid up by a previous storm or rain shower as well; thus storm motion might be a bit erratic especially on the stronger storms that really get rooted up into the upper atmosphere and take more of 'right turn' toward the Southeast direction.

SUNDAY: More storms are anticipated, but the exact location and nature of them will have to wait until tomorrow. Coverage is not expected to be as great on Sunday either (not that it will be all that great today though either).

BEYOND: A drying out period is anticipated until the next weakened cold front moves southward and into Florida; it is these 'weakened frontal boundaries' that supply the necessary moisture to give rise to the cloud cover and likewise, storm activity.

NOTE: The Wet Season , in  the bloggers opinion, is yet to be seen..that is a 'typical afternoon thunderstorm cycle on a near daily basis' is not yet on the horizon. Perhaps going into the second or third week of June though, by then , we will see it.

Risk of Marginal to Pulse Severe Storms Once Again

TODAY: A few subtle changes from yesterday's premises (that can make a much larger difference in the scheme of things) appears to be underway from what earlier guidance would left one to think.

As referred to the other day, a mid level trough was premised to slide south of Central Florida by this morning leaving much of 'dead Central' just that. Dead to storms today due to it being too dry aloft; however, given the latest actual sounding out of KSC and model trends, such is not the case at all.

There is still sufficient moisture availability as far north as I-4 and it appears that 'nearly' enough will continue to be at play at least into early afternoon that far north.

Model guidance , especially short-term model runs are consistently showing enough surface based instability and moisture to be in place , if not all day, from nearly all of Brevard County south to Dade.

Temperatures aloft are a bit similar to yesterday as far as it being cold enough aloft to perpetrate strong updrafts along with some dry slots to motivate more potent ones, and mid-level lapse rates look to be running perhaps a tad more favorable for storms today to make up for a slight warming at 500mb (20,000 ft). The overall 'areal coverage region wide'  of instability, however, does not appear to be as great.

On the other hand, sea-breeze development up and down the east-coast looks much more likely than it did yesterday with the morning starting out with very light winds at the surface (though westerly all locations). 

The KSC sounding does show 18 kts of WSW winds around 4000 ft, but below that they are less than 10kts which a sea-breeze could over-come, especially after 1pm though it might be a shallow one. The sea breeze front is where the best low level converge can occur initially , thus resulting in upward momentum. Resulting outflow boundaries from earlier activity coming together along with the sea breeze is likely going to be where the real 'threat' will lie (perhaps Southern Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie counties ).

Strongest of storms will not really get going it appears until after 1-2pm, with a convective temperature of 89F. But again, it is where boundary mergers occur a couple hours later that will tell the story in full. Do note that the NWS has mentioned a reference to 'possible funnel clouds' and 'small hail' with the greater threat again today being wind gusts.

There is some question, however, as to how strong activity will be for Central and North Brevard.

 That far north is the area that has been in question in regard to whether it would rain there at all or not today, that is at least (in the bloggers view) until early this morning, and now especially mid-morning it does appear even that far north could see a 'strong storm'. 

One of the short-term models has very emphatically been implying some of the first activity of the day will go up near 'The Cape' and that storm when finally collapsing would send an outflow boundary southward and scour out much of the surrounding arear within 20-30 miles (perhaps)  - despite otherwise favorable conditions.  

On the other hand, if that does not occur then even a region as far north as SR 50 could be in the park for a 'stronger' type storm especially along the US1 corridor from near Port St John southward.

Below is the Blogger's 'Guess with a Stretch" (to include North Brevard or an area north of South Melbourne).  

(NOTE: The official forecast out of the MLB NWS is not calling for any storms today north of Melbourne as of earlier this morning)

For BLOG Purposes Only, Writer's   'Best Guess at 9AM''

Storm Prediction Center's Outlook at 8:00AM

All in all, apart from the above mentioned, the better chance for 'strong' storms will be along the east coast today, with mainly showers some developing into 'thunder' approaching from the west by noon time (first Lake/Polk) counties, for example

Strongest storms will be after 3pm - 6:45pm from Brevard to Dade Counties, with 'enviably' a 'mystery storm' perhaps evolving somewhere in St. Lucie/Martin Counties near Lake Okeechobee for  those so inclined to witness a 'good storm'.

BEYOND: The rest of the week continues to be dry and warm, even much warmer come Friday through the weekend when  the risk of even then, only perhaps an isolated storm could come above, but in general, next weekend looks dry with summer like warmth (but not quite the humidity).

Strong Storms Again Possible Today - Not a Good Beach Afternoon

Late Saturday afternoon  of May 4, 2019 facing South toward the Cocoa Beach Pier from Cape Canaveral

Today: Not much change in thinking in regard to today's weather set up and eventual outcome as the day progresses from late morning into mid afternoon.

A similar set up in the atmosphere per surface instability forecasts with a dry layer in the mid levels   combined with similar temperature profiles  aloft are all forecast to be present. Winds aloft today appear to be just a bit stronger,and as such the east coast Sea Breeze particularly north of Vero Beach might not be able to work as far inland as it did yesterday (for example, west of I-95) if at all. Without a sea breeze at all the whole 'forumla' will significantly change (namely the risk of stronger storms , or at least coverage of them, will be greatly reduced).

On the other hand, with the drier air aloft and strong instability at the surface forecast and similar colder air aloft it is again expected we'll see another round of storm activity to progress initially from the west side of the state eastward , mainly south of a line running from Cedar Key (West Coast) to Southern Flagler County (East Coast) southward toward Southern Palm Beach County (even interior Dade).

There is a bit of a 'condition' however in all this, that being any precedent cloud cover could put a bit of a damper on storm strength and/or coverage. All in all, most guidance suggests the most active areas will be  in the area noted below.

Blog Forecast For Most Active Areas

Below is the Official Storm Prediction Center's (SPC) Outlook for the areas most likely to be impacted by the 'Marginal Risk of Severe" storm activity

Inevitably, there will be a variation from yesterday. There were a few 'minimally severe wind reports' yesterday , but the majority of wind reports came in at the 40-45mph range, which is again expected to be the case today in and near the stronger storms . There was also a 1.00" hail report.  The other difference today might be a slightly earlier onset and hence east ward progression of the main storm focus by an hour or so, from yesterday.

MONDAY: Weak mid-level trough and associated surface 'front' and co-located moisture band will be working down the state as the day progresses. The boundary should lie almost directly 'west-east' across the state around 2-3pm tomorrow afternoon . 

Instability looks ample enough for fast moving 'showers' and maybe some thunder, but the storm risk appears at this time to be substantially lower and limited perhaps more to the East Coast south of Ft Pierce. Rain chances however, do exist mainly from near Cape Canaveral or Melbourne southward .

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: East wind will bring drier air and typical morning and afternoon temperatures. Mornings in the lower 70Fs at the coast (60Fs inland) and afternoons in the lower 80Fs (coast) and mid-upper 80Fs inland. There may be a period of time Tuesday and/or Wednesday for some shallow onshore type showers to work toward the coast, but the chance is quite low as things appear this hour of writing.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: As we work from Friday into the weekend, thunderstorm chances may well return with much warmer temperatures as well, with muggy low-mid 90Fs a possibility over the interior.

Chance of Pulse 'Strong/Severe' Storms Today/Sunday

June 6, 2016 from the KSC Visitor's Center

TODAY: Similar temperature/wind regime from yesterday, though suspect it will get warmer today than yesterday with less cloud coverage to start the day. 

Plentiful low - mid level moisture and surface based instability with a near to side-shore 'sea breeze' along the east coast under a prevailing SW-WSW steering flow aloft of about 10 kts (South Central/South) up to at times 23 kts (North Central) could keep the convective train chugging with residual activity after the first thrust of storms manifests lingering toward dark in some areas.

Near to side shore winds combined with outflow boundaries from 'early onset' activity could result in greater low level convergence in the presence of very cool (but not unusually cold) air aloft, combined with per the RAP sounding for KSC (for example) at 4pm of a dry mid level slot , might result in 'small hail' but more certainly wind gusts in the 40+ mph range. There was a 'severe qualified' gust yesterday in activity near Jensen Beach, so would expect a bit more of the same today, if not a bit more active.

As of early today (this writing) , "Prime Time" could commence after 2pm east central as other showery with some thunder activity progresses east ward along the west coast sea breeze, with a collision occurring mainly near to south of I4 around the 4pm time frame. 

Areas that experience 'early onset' (prior  to 4pm) might all out 'escape' any of the stronger activity that would/could have occurred later since those areas would be stabilized by the cooling rains that fall from them (assuming there will be such activity).

Overall 'coverage' of storm activity looks almost certain, mainly for areas over the interior south of I-4. Here is a 'general thunderstorm' coverage outlook generated by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), located in Norman , Oklahoma.

Back to home, strongest storms will be capable of frequent lightning. small hail, and strong wind gusts in and near the strongest storms. 

Things should begin to wind down in regard to the stronger activity rather quickly after 5:30- 6:30pm, though expect there could be residual pocket of rainfall to continue in some locations.

The bloggers most 'unofficial outlook' (refer to official sources as usual) is to be watching for strong/pulse severe activity in the 'red' area today.

SUNDAY: This day could be just as active (if not more so) as today. 

Early morning model guidance at least 'suggests' that the 'risk' of stronger storms seems to be even greater, for the same general area as today, though extending further northward to cover all of Volusia if not even Flagler Counties.

Granted , this is subject to change as usual, but it does appear to be that at a minimum, we could expect yet another day of a round of storms , but where specifically any one storm will hit with greater impact is as usual indeterminable.

MONDAY: Risk of stronger activity at this stage diminishes greatly as mid level moisture pooling along a mid level trough pulls off the U.S. East coast and slides south toward Lake Okeechobee. 

Temperatures remaining typically warmest inland. 

Coming days look to get quite warm by Wednesday, especially for the interior with wide spread lower and maybe even some mid-90Fs (?); however, as far as rainfall is concerned, mainly 'dry'.

Risk of Severe Weather on Good Friday

Severe Thunderstorm, April 19,  2015 Cape Canaveral (4 years to date of Friday)

TODAY: Continued warm with east wind, highs in the lower-mid 80Fs interior,
and lower 80Fs near the coast. Perhaps picking up a bit late in the day into tonight.

THURSDAY: Maundy Thursday's Storm system that is gaining 'infamy' before it has yet to fully take shape (but will later today in Texas and eventually several other states further north) will be progressing eastward.

Temperatures will be running status quo as wind becomes southeasterly  - the GFS model shows a chance of rain showers emerging, (maybe thunder) toward East Central later in the day but whether there will be ample moisture is in question. The GFS has been quite consistent, however, with that potential so can't say we weren't warned. Perhaps it's actually 'seeing' a patch of mid-level clouds rather than 'rain' but will go with the rain chances, though rather small at least as of this point.

GOOD FRIDAY: It's Darkest before the Light of A New Dawn, and no different in this case on this day. 

Though guidance is generally in agreement that the wind fields overhead will be considerably strong, ample enough with enough shear to produce severe category straight line winds or gusts, exactly how strong squa all line will be when it gets south of generally a Tampa toward Daytona Beach line is in question. 

Regardless, as seen by the latest SPC (Storm Prediction Center's) outlook, no point in being conservative this day. The weaker wind fields do seem to remain across South Florida as all models show though, and as depicted by the 'lower to no risk' zone for far South Florida (image below).

Though the "Threat being Denoted" (below) is for the 'Main Show' (or what is left of it as the system moves across the state after noon time) there is a  'Concern' for activity that "might' develop many hours out ahead of it (more below).

 Late Morning through Early Afternoon FRIDAY:

There is an ever small chance worth watching for, that activity could develop mainly near the Florida east coast come mid-late morning and quickly translate off shore. 

The Latest NAM Model (though it can get extreme) and a bit less the GFS hint that storms could form mainly near to east of I95.

The concern is that at that time, and given the NAM is now showing more Instability from previous runs and coming closer to the GFS, that anything that 'goes up' at the time could rotate as the wind fields earlier in the day are not as unidirectional  from the surface up through the mid levels as they will be later in the day, but rather have a bit of a 'turning with height'. 

The winds at the lowest levels will likely be 'quite breezy' early in the day (and all day for that matter on Friday) but be running  nearly parallel to the coast earlier on whereas with every given hour the winds overhead will be increasing from the SSW-W in the mid-upper levels. 

Temperatures aloft will also be cooling during this time frame with ample moisture sliding into place 'just in time' for a fuse to blow.

 Hence, for BLOG PURPOSES ONLY at this point, would be watching the skies from 10AM Friday near the east coast  mainly South of I-4 / along and east of I95  -- especially   Coastal Brevard, Indian River, and St Lucie Counties for a quick storm to go up. No guarantees anything will form but the risk is there.

LATER FRIDAY: The 'Main Storm System' of Infamy by this time will have crossed the Panhandle and be moving eastward across the state. How much 'punch' is left of it is yet to be seen, though hints are 'the worst' of it might not be as bad as winds aloft suggest could be. Regardless, bulk shear and sufficiently cold air aloft at this time of year are nothing to mess with and The Storm Prediction Center (and National Weather Service are messing with this one).  Let it be known, and respectable storm with the winds that will be aloft on Friday with the Main System could easily be 'damaging' in nature. 

Advise having a TV station or some form of social media (preferably with warning capability) at hand Friday) until the 'all's clear' which appears would be well before sunset.

SATURDAY - EASTER SUNDAY: Clearing skies and a bit breezy but dry Saturday. Cool in the morning warming into the mid-upper 70Fs.

EASTER SUNRISE:  Wind by this time will have died down considerably. Temperature at the beaches for Sunrise Services appear will be near 60F give or take 3 degrees. It will warm up rapidly by mid-morning well into the upper 70Fs with light wind all day.

BEYOND: Very pleasant spring weather once again the first half of next week.

 So far it appears the next chance of rain, perhaps thunderstorms, emerges come Thursday and/or Friday as a 'short wave trough' passes mainly north of the state, but with enough effects to result in "cold air aloft and instability at the surface with the west coast sea breeze being the dominant player as it pushes to meet a near-shore east coast seabreeze'. 

Too soon really to know that will be the situation, and timing is still up in the air, but it does look like one or both days could 'produce' a storm or two. Perhaps strong.

Risk of "Thunder East Central" - Much Cooler Wednesday

Little change from previous post. A cold front is entering North Central Florida to cross Central Direct toward sunset. Best convergence for storm formation in the midst of instability and bulk shear/cold air aloft st nearly right on the boundary alone. 

With the boundary across Central late today best risk of showers and thunder should be near/south of I4 and more specifically give or take 30 -40 miles either side of the 528 from Orlando to Canaveral.

Most activity will be in the form of 'showers' thought thunder is possible.

TUESDAY: Front will have slid to South Florida but the colder air is still waiting on the wings

further north. There are hints that Tuesday will be mostly cloudy and much cooler than recent days.

WEDNESDAY; The 'True Front" will cross rapidly south of Central near midnight Tuesday night with some gustier NW winds and significantly drier air to follow. 

From this point on the forecast holds fast to the previous post. 

Lows in the mid-upper 40Fs many areas, coldest north of I-4.

 Lows closest to the 50F mark from the Cape south along the east coast, though upper 40Fs might well be realized north of  Melbourne at the beaches, especially north of the Cape. 60F might not be realized north of I4.

THURSDAY: Wind dies down but continued cool with highs in the mid 60Fs

FRIDAY-SATURDAY  Friday starts out cool but a quick warm up after sunrise will ensure a 'back to normal' day as wind becomes easterly and progressively more southerly into Saturday morning.

SATURDAY  Very pleasantly warm day

SUNDAY  Warm with southerly wind,chance of showers and thunder many areas ahead of a next front.

What will happen with this next front? Hard to say, latest guidance backed off a bit for another big 'cool blast' come Tuesday and Wednesday of next week but rather shows a much more settle change in wind direction and rapid rebound to normal, other than a day or two close to 'normal', though yes a cold front, just not nearly as impactful.

"March Gladness" (Through Monday)

"Sunrise, Cape Canaveral March 2 , 2019"

TODAY: Yet another warm day onto a string of other unusually warm days for this time of year continues.  

Latest infrared satellite animations reveal.s mostly high / mid level cloud cover from time to time across Central and North Florida with the south half of the state mainly cloud free.  

Given the trend in the animations, it appears that this will continue to be the case today, other than some lower cumuliform type clouds forming all locations later in the day, or in other words, similar to yesterday will be the case. 

Temperatures will run along the same lines as yesterday as well, though it might be a bit warmer along the beaches as it appears that with an approaching cold front the surface to lower levels pressure gradient might become strong enough to offset the sea breeze at least north of Fort Pierce. If so, expect highs in the mid-upper 80Fs today, only being tempered by off and on higher clouds, especially north half of state. 

TONIGHT: Continued warm and 'muggy' for this time of year with dew-points even up to the 70F mark in some locations.

MONDAY: Warm trend continues south of I-4 as a cold front drops south down the state. Cloud cover along and north of I-4 should hold temperatures down a bit, and further north by I-10 the colder air will have more certainly have begun to filter in. 

Given the heating and instability with cold air aloft, there is a small chance of 'thunder' but more likely rain showers mainly over Central Direct and parts of South Central (mainly north of Vero Beach) from near noon time through to sunset as the front drops south. Thus, it won't be 'quite as warm' due to potential cloud cover and showers that might form. Not all locations will by any means experience rainfall, however.

TUESDAY: The NAM implies 'no fropa' (frontal passage, yet)  oddly, but the GFS says yes it does go through, but the outcome is more or less the same temperature wise either way. Afternoon highs Central mainly near normal to just below  with highs in the lower 70Fs (more or less) with a NW wind, as the true colder and much drier air is still on the way. 

Guidance is consistent with a secondary area of low pressure forming over the Gulf Stream east of South Carolina with an attendant secondary boundary from it across Florida, which will be transparent to Floridians.  As that low lifts out east and north the boundary drops through Central late day Tuesday and in comes the drier air on stiff NW winds.

WEDNESDAY.:; This will be the coolest morning we've seen in a while, with lows most locations north of Lake Okeechobee in the mid-upper 40Fs with lower 50FS near the east coast from near Vero and South, with the colder locations being the interior from I-4 and north. Windy as well, with gusts in the 22- 28 mph range. 

Wednesday, in short, will be akin to a more typically 'cold' winter type day in Florida, just not a more 'extreme' type of winter day. 

Highs will struggle to reach 60F north of a Melbourne to Tampa Bay line, and it is unlikely that they will at all north of I-4. (though, it might be interesting to see if the GFS is underestimating the strength of the sun's heating given the time of year. Chances are with good mixing with clear skies the wind might be a bit stronger but I am curious as to just how 'less cool' it might be , but that's a big 'if').

Below are forecast images for THIS MORNING compared to WEDNESDAY morning

THURSDAY: Another cool start to the day, but with much less wind. High pressure that originated in Western Montana will have dropped southeast toward Northern Georgia and will be on it's way east. As a result, eventually the clockwise circulation around that high will in turn result in a developing light N to northeast and eventually ENE wind during the day. Continued cool but not AS cool as Wednesday, with highs in the mid 60Fs.

FRIDAY: This morning might well start out 'cool' again with lows in the 50Fs but after sunrise expect   onshore flow off the Atlantic will quickly establish an 'air mass modification' regime with highs in the 70Fs. 

 In short, Friday looks like a 'climatically normal' day for this time of year.

NEXT WEEKEND: Warm once again as southerly flow develops  late Friday into Saturday morning. Highs in the upper 70Fs (coast) to lower 80Fs.

By Sunday, continued moist southerly flow might result in showers or even thunder across parts of Central/South Florida toward the east coast during the afternoon. That is a 'new development' to watch for next weekend.

DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME BEGINS MARCH 10, Sunday at 2AM.  
The first full day of Day Light Savings Time will be warm across Florida.

BEYOND: Another cold front and more cold weather appears to be looming for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame of NEXT week as well.

Small Risk of a Strong Storm (East Central) after 4pm - Warming Trend through Saturday

Late February Sunrise, Cape Canaveral

 An upper disturbance resulting in cloudy skies, rain and cool temperatures yesterday has pressed east out into the Atlantic, while another disturbance approaching from the Western Florida Panhandle has taken on the form of an MCS (mesoscale convective system) as it presses east. This is notable per the satellite loop included below.

With cleared skies becoming but partly cloudy most of all Central and South Florida into the early afternoon, daytime heating and sufficient low level destabilization will occur ahead of that feature. Low level wind is weak so a sea breeze will be able to set up in advance of it's approach. Temperatures aloft are rather cold and wind fields are sufficient for stronger storms, particularly after 4pm North Central Florida. 

There are numerous factors at play that  could result in enhanced storm activity today, but it much is contingent upon timing and how things work together. 

Should East Central remain with low cloud coverage and on the premise we might see enhanced forcing ahead of the feature with an outflow boundary related to it, low level convergence at the surface with cold air aloft coupled with increases in the 0-3KM helicity fields might provide the needed impetus for a strong storm or two.

Otherwise, general thunder with gusty winds in a near storms is possible. 
There will be many areas that will see no rain at all today as well , though.

Late morning satellite imagery shows the motion of the  'MCS'  type activity in the eastern - northern Gulf. It will be several hours before cloud coverage from this feature overspreads the state.

Peak time for 'potential activity 'will be from near Lake County eastward and into Orange/Osceola going into the 5pm or so. Otherwise, other activity might be able to form from near Miami-Dade northward toward Vero Beach earlier in the afternoon (enhanced perhaps by the Lake Okeechobee Breeze in Martin/St Lucie Counties).

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Continued warmer though cloud cover going into Friday (and perhaps another shot of rain) might hold down afternoon highs a bit on one or more days.

Saturday looks to be a warm and dry one though at this point.

SUNDAY: Cold front is slated to slide south of Central Florida by late morning, though this could change. Temperatures fall to just below normal for afternoon highs Sunday-Tuesday; with yet a much colder shot of 'winter like 'temperatures foreseen later in  the week. This could well change however, but the 'risk' is being advertised of almost a return to 'winter like weather' for 48 later next week. The GFS might have over-blown this though, as the CFSV2 model is not showing this more drastic temperature drop (at least not as yet). Not time to put away the winter gear altogether entirely just yet (at least not until we get the last week of March out of the way).