Have a Holly Jolly...

Radar images show the 'squall line' as well as the rain showers that nicked the Cape over night.

Things are pretty much on track this Christmas morning as expected per yesterday's post. We got down to 68 degrees for a brief time last night, but for the most part it hung right at 70 degrees. A quick rain shower nicked the Cape area about 3 hours before sunrise and we got a quick 0.10" of rain in short order with winds gusting to an estimated 30mph. But those are now long gone as most of that activity is forming and remaining off shore. The tornado producing squall line of yesterday is still marching east and now about 75 miles west of the Florida west coast. In line with yesterday's thinking, still expect it to break up as the supporting low pressure area which created blizzard conditions from Texas to Oklahoma and into the Dakotas moves NNE and 'stretches' out all the associated energy with it. As the line of storms thins an upper and mid level jet streak approaches our area and spills debris cloud across the state by 8-9am which should remain in place the rest of the day. Chances of rain will increase despite the fact that the squall line will become non-existent south of a Daytona Beach - Gainesville line as there is a band of deeper moisture and a tad of instability being shoved this way. Yesterday I said our best chances of thunder would be between 1-4pm. I'm tempted to take out thunder and just make it our best chances of rain will be during that period.

Otherwise, the temperature forecast is still on track with a high today maybe a degree warmer than yesterday despite the cloud cover. Why? We lose the wind off the ocean as it will start to come out of the southwest and not off the 67 degree ocean water. Rain, if any, will end by midnight tonight...but not expecting more than 1/2" anywhere as even the heavier showers that manage to formulate will be moving briskly due to the aforementioned mid level jet streak.

Cooling air temperatures ensue tomorrow with a continued falling trend through Monday with lows right on the coast perhaps in the upper 40s Tuesday morning but otherwise in the mid 50s. Probably up to 10 degrees cooler inland though or perhaps just west of the Indian River. Still fearing abundant high cloud coverage after a period of good clearing immediately behind the front..so after a sunny Saturday we might be doing an about face to the pesky cirrostratus clouds. Still up in the air as to rain chances on Wednesday or late Tuesday...but as it looks now it's actually appearing to be more likely that this cold front will return as a warm front as yet another wave of low pressure forms along its remainders in the Gulf which will move ENE across the state and lift the boundary back toward us for a second blow...this time in the form of stratiform rain...blah's ville. But, that is still a big "if"...so I will continue to monitor this possibility. Perhaps when the later morning model runs have completed running we'll have a better idea of what is to come rain wise. Will reflect on this again in tomorrow's post.

Beautiful Christmas Eve Morning...To Go Downhill

Boy, it feels kind of 'gooey' outside this morning...and expect more throughout the day today, tonight, and all of Christmas Day. A very complex storm system has taken shape over the country's mid-section over night with a surface low pressure system near extreme NW Louisiana and appended cold front/developing squall line extending south from it into the Gulf of Mexico. The southern extent of the squall line is starting to move out of radar range but is easily detectable via satellite imagery. Will it make it here? Don't think so.

(Note: You can click on the Title of this post to see a Christmas Video if reading this from Blogger)

For today, expect due east winds off the 65 degree ocean temperature mixing with an air mass that is trying to warm up 10-15 degrees warmer than that. The result will be very 'sticky'. Temperatures will struggle to warm up as much as they'd like to as a result, but it still will be up around 75 degrees today. Good thing about today over the past few days, there is currently few to no clouds out there as of this writing and it's 67 degrees. In fact, we 'bottomed out' at 67 around 7pm last night, and it never got any cooler due to the onshore winds which kept our temperatures easily 10 or more degrees warmer than our friends over toward Orlando and Tampa. Gotta love the coast (sometimes). You'll see that in early spring it becomes the storm lovers curse. But that discussion is for another day, another season!

Chance of rain today is pretty much nil; however, latest model guidance is suggesting that by late morning we will start to see more clouds overspreading the area - both high clouds starting to stream in from the west in the southern branch jet stream, and from the east at the low levels as warmer air over runs the cooler ocean waters. If they thicken up enough a barely detectable spritz might occur, but I'd put that possiblity at the very low end or low ends. At least it's warmer air, as opposed to the odd situation we had in reverse about a week ago when there was fog right east of US1 at 5pm in the afternoon. The wind will start to veer to a more southeasterly component by late afternoon as the clouds continue to increase. Overnight lows along the coast...and probably over most of the area will only get down to about 67 once again or maybe a notch or two warmer for our late Christmas Eve. Clouds to increase overnight with the chance of a sprinkle ever increasing throughout the evening, especially after midnight.

Christmas Day. Not the best of days I'm sorry to say. At least it won't be pointlessly cold..but it will be totally cloudy with rain chances continuing to increase throughout the day. The now squall line well west of us will probably start to break up as it approaches Florida's West Coast...but there's a decent chance that pieces will still make it here. We could even be hearing thunder, especially in the 1-4pm time frame Christmas Day. I think the official forecast is giving us a 60% chance of rain, but wouldn't be surprised to see it get bumped up to 70% in one of their upcoming forecast release periods.

Rain chances will start to decrease significantly in the 7-9pm time frame Christmas Night, with the coast being the last to clear out...or at least have the rain end. After the system is passed, the Sunday-Tuesday time frame is painting a "lows in the mid-upper 50s and highs in the mid-60s" painting, with probably lots of high jet stream cloudiness which puts sort of a gunky mood on things. All this happening while yet another in the 'low pressure train' starts to take shape in the Western Gulf of Mexico. Timing on these system has been approximately every 5-7 days...and based on a study I did a long time ago, expecting such timing to be the course for much of this El Nino Winter.

Word of note: Caveat - will be watching for potential rain chances to increase much sooner than currently expected ahead of the next system if certain parameters materialize as indicated by one of the forecast models. For now I'm leaving it dry, but by Monday we might be looking at an oozy rain. More to come. Be safe out there..and try not to rush too much today. Joyous Christmas Eve!!

O' Warmy Night!

It appears that we will have a nice Christmas Gift coming to East Central Florida this year, in the form of warm weather (relatively wintery speaking) with a low temperature Christmas Eve in the mid-upper 60s right along the coast. From Orlando westward it will be a totally different story by about a 10 -15 degrees colder difference. In any case, expect today to be very mild with a high near 72 degrees with light east winds and some clouds increasimg by mid-afternoon. The temperature tonight will fall only a smidge (right along the coast, again)...then Christmas Eve Day warms to the mid-70s with continued E-ESE winds (light). Christmas Day should dawn partly cloudy with the possiblity of a few remote rain showers around, with the probability increasing during the day and into the night... thunder is unlikely do to the stable nature of the atmosphere but we'll still see 70 degrees again. After Christmas Day (Saturday)...things go downhill temperature wise, where we'll be flirting with the 40s for lows for several days. Enjoy it while it lasts!

No Changes Today...Another Day of Cirrus Debris

The southern stream jet has dug way south and is streaming from Yucatan across Florida in a wide swath. Expect more of the same today with maybe a "sundog" in the late afternoon. Cool as a result of the clouds. Same again tomorrow so may not need to post...but warmer...finally. Cloudy with a chance of rain all day Christmas Day. Then more of the same for at least 3 days after that. Kind of narrows things down. Wish it was summer!

'Tis The Season...For Whatever

(Above: Ice Skaters in Cocoa Village)

Looks like most of Florida will on the 'slowly moderating temperatures' trend the next two days as a strong high pressure center moves east across the Deep South into the Atlantic off the SE Georgia Coast. The result here will be a wind shift, as noted previously, overnight tonight into Tuesday to the ENE. The wind off the ocean will prevent the temperature from dropping all so much into Tuesday morning (thank goodness...brrrr). Expect today to be much like yesterday, with a high in the very low 60s. The temperature tonight might only drop about 6-8 degrees as the wind shifts. Further inland the change won't be nearly as noticeable as they are not as prone to onshore flow temperature modification as quickly. Even Cocoa will have a harder time to note the change.

Don't expect a huge temperature climb though. We will get into the low-mid 70s by Tuesday and days on, but it won't be tremendously warm as it was when we were near record highs last week. As for rain, still looks like the time-frame for chances will be late Christmas Eve day or more likely evening into much of Christmas Day...yes, the time frame has been pushed out a smidgen. Good thing now that has been noted is that what originally looked like a very cold spell to occur is now not nearly so 'threatening'. Essentially, not as cool as it's been for this one. Hey, if this is all that Ma Nature could dish out this winter I'd be happy. This is nothing compared to how nasty it can get, but we have yet to survive late January, the potentially worst of the worst time. Look for lows in the upper 50s and highs in the mid-70s Wednesday along the coast (lows a little lower west of the Indian River and down by Okeechobee away from the water).

Just a little additional information, as winter is now beginning TODAY as a matter of fact, the ocean water will continue to cool, so the days with onshore flow creating such a tremendous temperature differential from inland won't be as tremendous, yet nevertheless will still (and always) exist.

Ave Maria - A Christmas Day (And Weekend)

Perfect Weather For Getting in the Christmas Spirit This Weekend. Enjoy the sweater/jacket weather and somewhat breezy conditions. Things will improve by Monday afternoon as onshore flow (winds) by that evening begin to modify the air[mass along the coast. The next possible chance of rain will be Christmas Eve afternoon thru the pre-sunrise hours of Christmas Day, with clearing skies on Christmas and dropping temperatures throughout the day (as it stands now).

Severe Weather Potential Today

Shown is radar at 5am showing the approaching heavy rain which might have woke some of you up in Brevard County.

As of 5am, it appears a retreating warm from is laying directly across Central Brevard County. It is raining very heavily with gusty winds. This area will progress northward in the predawn hours as the front moves further north. After this area passes on by our attention will shift to a developing squall line that currently appears as if it will enter the eastern half of the state sometime between 1-4pm. Discrete cells ahead of this line will likely form and race northward ...it will be between 12-2pm that we will have the greatest chance for an isolated tornado. The biggest threat outside of these cells will be strong, gusty winds associated with the heavier rain storms/thunderstorms (possibly). We have had a brief tornado warning already very early this morning at around 4:30am.

We will have modest helicity values and veering winds with height that will help some of the storms acquire rotation but instability will be lacking except along the very immediate coast. Most of the action should be out of the area by 6pm with lingering light rain and breezy west winds. Then the next couple of days will be quite cool, with the next chance of rain on Thursday.

Highspeed Dirt - The Song!

Continued breezy with increasing chance of ocean showers thru today. Then the potential for severe weather increases through Friday. If you don't have a weather radio, now is the time to get one. By Saturday cold air advection ensues and it will cold Saturday afternoon through Wednesday and rain free.

The B-52's - Give Me Back My Man - Rock in Rio, janeiro de 1985

This is a great song. We are expecting a few more nice days, but things start to slowly go done the El Nino hill. By Friday it all hits the fan. And from there on...don't expect to see the 70s..or even the 60s for that matter as highs. It will never get to freezing though...just plain good old long sleeve and jacket weather. Watch for the potential of SEVERE weather for a brief window of opportunity on Friday morning....we'll see! If you haven't figured it out already, I love the B52s! And the hair-dos.

Simon's Cat 'Snow Business'

We won't be seeing snow...but El Nino winter is now in Full Gear. One more day of 'weird' weather with foggy times at odd periods of the day, then we are in for warm and rain into Friday. After that..we'll see...but I do NOT like what I'm seeing...namely..COLD.

Elton John- Your sister can't twist (but she can rock'n'roll)

Warm and Sunny today with near RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (except right along the coast where a very light onshore wind will keep us right around 79-81). Orlando might reach 86)

It's A Blizzard! Somewhere But Not Here

What happened overnight?! Holy smokes!

This will be a brief one today as things 'appear' to be fairly cut and dry (the operative word) today. Yes it's cloudy and breezy but that's about the highlight of the day. Odd though, because as I type I see some small showers making landfall in the Oak Hill area; however, for the most part, today will remain dry. Any rain to fall will be in the trace amount or 0.01" category.

It actually warmed up a good bit during the dark hours but the incline will be slow today due to the ocean wind and clouds - - we still could reach about 78 though. It get's interesting overnight as the front finally returns north as a warm front, so there will be a window of opportunity (for rain) sometime between about 4am to 9am tomorrow morning. The clouds should start to break tomorrow as we are placed fully in the warm air mass behind the front with little to no trigger to induce rain. Sunday looks pretty good too for now but I'll leave that for tomorrow so there'll be something to write about.

Steady As She Goes For Today

What was that rain all about last night? We were expecting some and it finally came, but the situation was interesting so wanted to present a theory (of mine) of what happened. You can see above to images: (1) shows the 1k Relative Humidity color coded and average layer winds at the time of the rain (2) shows after the rain had dropped slowly south with time and it was over for central Brevard but still ongoing a smidge further south. (3) furthermore, we see in the last image the sharp dewpoint temperature gradient as marked in black indicating the steep gradient from dry to moist air masses.

It appears we were right on a humidity gradient from very dry to saturated at the lowest levels and they were also being converged because of the differences in the rock solid air masses ... lift was generated...just enough to create rain across the state along the steep gradient line. As it moved south so did the rain, but so did some of the 'forcing' so the rain further south wasn't nearly as strong. We got 0.52 inches at my place.

For today, looks like we are in somewhat moist post-frontal position today with no triggers for rain until maybe very late (other than a possibly detectable spritz under the particularly thicker patches of clouds)...but for the most part it will be dry. I'd expect to see partly to mostly cloudy skies throughout, but the sun will peak out now and then. What might happen after dark is the wind will veer to more easterly doing two things: (1) transporting warmer air in; and (2) creating an inverted trough along the warmer gulf stream...these two factors could easily bring rain back into the equation depending on when the wind shifts...but at this time it looks like well after dark..say about 7pm. So theoretically it could start to rain around 8:30pm. Temperatures will hold just under the 70 notch today all quads but maybe break that threshold right around 2pm. Speaking of temperature, we only got down to 62 right here but know it was a few degrees cooler at most other locales. This was a full 2 degrees warmer than suppositioned it would get down to yesterday. I'll take it.

Things get very interesting on Saturday as our abhorrent cold front becomes friendly and makes a return visit from the south as a warm front during the night. Tonight's lows will be warmer than last's as a result. convergence along the front and the inverted trough could create a possible thunderstorm or two right on the east coast in Brevard County of all places! So will see what happens with that. Also, we'll be back into the low 80s thermally wise. Sweet!

Dank is the Word - But We're The Hot Spot Too

First off, it can't go unsaid that we can't complain. Sure enough, yesterday record high temperatures were set at three official recording stations around the south half of the state as was hoped which means most places that aren't 'official' also did. I know it reached 85 on my porch. The winnder was West Palm with 90...yes 90! Vero hit something like 86 which is just one degree higher than Canaveral (at least on the porch). Other places could have been warmer...just depends. Even turned the A/C on yesterday, but might as well turn it off now as "No such luck today".

Above are included the initial position of the front and a 9am forecast position. You can see how it's slowly easing/sliding south. Also shown are the initialization and forecasts for the temperature. First thing you might notice is how Florida, home sweet home, is in the brightest of colors in the entire nation including Arizona and S. Cal. Sort of like the big, red toe of the country.

Now for today we can sum it up as 'tricky'. Seems we are getting some pretty good 'boundary layer winds' just above the surface...and the air contained therein at a very shallow layer is actually warmer than right on the ground. Sort of like the affects of a warm front in reverse. The result is low clouds, in fact overcast at the time of this typing. Will the sun be able to burn thru it is the trick. I'm thinking "no"..at least not entirely. As the front sinks closer to us the upper level clouds will increase and shunt it off from doing so. Also, there is three distinct thin bands of rain showing up on radar...and these may grow with the help of the sun. These clouds would also put a damper on the high temperatures like we felt yesterday.

So I'm going to sum it up quickly today. Believe that we are in line with yesterday's discussion. It will be cloudy and somewhat gloomy and DANK. Heck, my cat doesn't even like it out there this morning. She had to come in and "mow" at me in displeasure and shake around a bit. Then went back out since she can't help herself.

Pretty good chance of seeing the ol' raindrops falling on our heads, but not continuously, and coolish with a high around 75 (hopefully)...maybe a few degrees lower. In fact, the temperature may just barely rise at all after 9:00am if it can even rise at all before that time.

Further out has changed quite a bit from yesterday's outlook, but the one thing that is holding to form is that it won't be getting cold, although by tomorrow it will be about 15 degrees cooler across the boards than it was yesterday (for comparisons/'the feel of it' sake).

The front that is going through by mid-late morning will progress down to S. Florida through the night and the cooler air will filter in during the late afternoon and thru the night so by the morning we might be looking at 60 degrees here right along the coast. But the wind is going to swing around to an easterly component almost immediately which will moderate things nicely. Just afraid we still might see lots of mid-high level clouds...sum it up for now as tomorrow will be partly cloudy but sometimes a little more so than others with a high near 70 if we get enough sun in here. That will be the end of it (the cool)...for a while until the next system moves in which in fact is already lining up in the western Gulf. But that's another tale for another day.

-Sponsler

Take Off the Sweater - Hold On To Your Hat

Shown is the NAM (North American Model) forecast for tomorrow morning at 7AM.

As you can see a front will be knocking at the front door (if your house faces north) per what this model believes as well has the HPC. From what I can see from the other models this is what one could call a 'good fit' for the overall set up. The first thing that stands out is the lack of rain (that green stuff) before the front gets here. "Whaaaat?!!" Yup, it appears that although there could be some it will be small and isolated. It what for FROPA (frontal passage) to arrive in earnest. Could be worse, look at all the pinks and blues on there to the northeast...that's gross cold snow/ice or a mix thereof.

Instead, we wait for it to get here and then as the cooler air is moving in so does the rain. YUCK! (exclamation point). And to make matters worse once it gets here, it's here to stay. As in, all day.

Not necessarily continuously, but from the best I can tell it might as well be. But fear not, yes it's a cold front but it really won't get cold unless one considers the mid 60s cold for a low and low to mid 70s for a high. The rain should end by Friday morning...for a day. "What" again you say?

The next week at least is going to be very busy on the weather maps so hold on to your hat (reason 1)...so busy I can't elaborate much on timing issues other than to say a series of low pressures are going to pass over as this front shown will make it only as far south as South Florida. It will move north with each 'low' riding long it as a warm front, then drop back south as the low passes by as a cold front again..and this happens yet again about 4 days after that one. So conditions will be changing a lot around here after today for a solid week. And most of the time it will be cloudy but not cold...just maybe a tad cool.

Now for more urgent matters, what about today? It seems that what you see right now is what you got for the entire day. Being mostly sunny to partly cloudy and maybe we'll reach that record high referred to yesterday. In any case, it should get up to about 82-84 unless we get too many clouds at the wrong time of day...namely between 11-1pm. It will be windy too which is reason 2 for holding on to your hat. Especially watch those causeways and waterways as well as the beach. Any open area could see winds of something like 16 gusting to 25mph...at least.

Leaving deeper analysis and elaboration for coming days for tomorrow and as those future times draw nigh. Each model run has varied CONSIDERABLY as to what will eventually transpire so there's no point in stating anything more other than what already has been until things get narrowed down. Tomorrow is tough enough to have any guarantees on. Maybe it won't be all the bad rain wise, and just 'deeply cloudy and overcast'.

Warm, Soupy, Shorts and Flip-Flops For Today

While many parts of the country are contending with very cold air and snow (lots of it) about the only thing we have to contend with is morning fog (in some spots) and very muggy air with high temperatures in the low 80s today. Not bad. Thanks for the soup Wolfgang (it will be Chicken Noodle out there the next 2 days). The image above portrains the current conditions (as I type). That little yellow trough line off our coast has been generating showers all night just along the coast but that will all lift north during the mornings as our wind becomes SSE. Hard to believe I''m writing this while Christmas music plays on the stereo. LOVE IT!

And if this weren't "bad" enough, tomorrow will likely be even warmer as the wind becomes southwesterly and not off the ocean. Maybe some near record high temperatures will be in order. We will have some clouds today, especially as the fog that looks to be abundant state-wide right now starts to lift. Also, some high and mid-level clouds will start to stream overhead courtesy to the Southern Branch jetstream which is streaming overhead at about 80 knots this morning (at about 30k feet).

The only real chance of rain now appears to be limited to Wednesday and early Thursday, and even that is only a chance and not an all day rain event like we've seen in the very recent past days.

So overall, things are doing nothing but looking better and better as we enter the second week of December. And further out...say into the weeked, other than a brief cool down Friday things stay warm. Hallelujah!!

-S. Sponsler

Warmest Weather in the Country Coming Up For A Week

After so many days of the dreary "stuff" it looks like we will be warming up significantly today and for days to come. A series of fronts will be passing through with little fanfare the next 10 days in the active ingredients category other than rain and perhaps some thunderstorms. The downside looks to be that we won't be having much full sunshine for a while....we'll see. The worst of days seems to be late Tuesday through most of Wednesday into the early morning hours Thursday. Doesn't sound good does it? But at least it won't be getting cold. Also, the Model Output Statitics are showing at least a 30 percent chance of showers almost everyday after Tuesday afternoon....in fact, as I type some showers are streaming this way but it's still very early morning anyway. Then there's other days (perhaps Saturday or Sunday?) that might not be so great either...but again it won't be getting cold with this front either with lows in the low-mid 60s and highs in the mid-70s....not bad eh?

The fronts will be getting stretched out i a west to east fashion rather than diving down from the north --thanks to the current El Nino type upper level flow over the Gulf and across Central Florida. In fact, for the most part from Central Florida and points south will have the warmest temperatures in the entire country except for maybe extreme SW Arizona on a few days...but south Florida will be warmer than that area in all cases.

So far we're doing great as of 4 am with the temperature remaining right around 70 degrees, where it's been since shortly after sunset Sunday evening. Enjoy this Florida weather !

Black Friday, Blue Sky

We're right on track for two very cool days, warmest right along the eastern waters. Unless you live east of the Banana River, you saw a low in the mid 40s this morning. But over here on the beach it only got down to 51. The sun is full bore out today, all day, so if you're not in the wind it won't be all bad. I'm going around in short and flip flops today, but a light jacket is in order as the wind will make it feel much cooler, and if in the shade...forget it.

WOW! Did you hear the sonic boom as the Shuttle came in?! KaBOOM.

The wind should die down significantly shortly by or after sunset, so although it could get even colder tonight away from the beaches...it won't feel entirely unbearable. Tonight we'll have a case of classic radiational cooling with a northwest drainage flow down the spine of the state. This will again result in the coldest of air to reside just west of the waterways with the coldest morning in store for Saturday. However, at this time I'm reluctant to believe that the beach will break below 50 again. Saturday will be another cool one with less wind and some high clouds streaming overhead, but nothing significant at this time until maybe sunset when they might 'dense up' a bit.

Sunday morning will again be relatively cold inland with the coast starting to see a rebound. The bigger changes are in store for Sunday night into Monday as high pressure shifts off the coast and a hint of southerly flow and more clouds (high ones) dictate that the coast may actually warm a bit during the night, with inland not as obviously so. Monday afternoon, however, will bring warmer conditions for all and the 'cool' snap will essentially be over.

For tonight's activities, if one hasn't figured it out all ready, a jacket is definitely in order (lest you be one of the very hearty ones). Bearing in mind that some folks in the local area will be attending a high school alumni football game and a street party around downtown Cocoa Beach., if you're one of them be prepared to dress accordingly.

Further out? I'm leaving that for another day. We have a solid 4-5 days of essentially dry weather, gradually warmer temperatures, and clouds becoming more of an issue progressively after tomorrow...and rain...perhaps enters the picture very late Tuesday. For now a very quick blurb is in order..being that at this time..and I stress this time..any assured chance of rain in the future stands out..as it did yesterday..to occur during the post sunset to sunrise hours of Wednesday into Thursday morning. With this very progressive southern jet stream pattern in place things change pretty quickly and successive model runs accordingly vary widely; thus, timing on the finer details will continue to be an issue until we can see the 'white of its eyes'.

Happy Thanksgiving

The rain is over and the clouds will break today for a nice Thanksgiving sunset. The cold front has gone through, but the associated trough at the mid-levels still has to pass over, so the clouds this morning will linger for a while...maybe until noon time. But the clearing line is approaching and will be off the east coast by mid-late afternoon. The high today will reach the low 70s, so it will feel a little cool particularly as we get toward sunset as the truly colder air starts to filter into the area and the sun gets low on the horizon (and winds begin to pick up from the northwest). It's already cold up in the Panhandle, but that real cold stuff won't make it here. Being that it's a holiday and no changes in forecast thoughts are in store since yesterday's thinking...we'll leave this one brief.

Coldest days will be Friday and Saturday...with Friday definitely feeling the coldest due to stronger NW winds. By Saturday and especially Sunday the wind will be much lighter under abundant sunshine..although some sporadic high clouds could put a minor damper on things, especially on Sunday. Expecting a low right along the coast in the upper 40s by Friday morning...and a few degrees warmer on Saturday morning (although away from the coast it will still be much cooler to cold); however, afternoon highs on Sunday will be on the rebound. In general, if you can get past 10am those days..you're good to go in short sleeves. But you might want a jacket if planning on spending much time outside on Friday.

Nothing significant otherwise to discuss. The next weather maker now appears to be a little slower in the making (approaching) than previously thought..so don't expect to hear about rain chances (from the blog at least)..until later Tuesday through the first half of Thursday.

Hope you and all your significant others have a wonder day.

Expected Flights Today?...Possible Delay

(latest radar showing widespread rain, as WeatherKitty looks on).

The rain is finally arriving, with no surprise. The biggest challenge for today was figuring whether or not there could be strong/severe storms. Some storms, namely those off shore, have exhibited some weak rotation but not enough to induce a tornado. I think this will be the case for the day as well (at least over the land areas)...with anything stronger than a generic thunderstorm to be extremely isolated. I'll be looking into this more after returning from a morning shopping run...so be advised things could change. Regardless, as you can see by the radar depiction, we have a broad expanse of precipitation covering much of the state. I woke up for a bit around 4 am and the stars were out and there was no rain anywhere nearby except over extreme South Florida, especially over the Keys. My what a difference 5 hours makes.

Don't have time to elaborate much today, but that's okay because nothing really has changed as far as today's outlook goes and as was posted a good two days ago both rain and temperature wise. Expect all of today to have a very respectable chance of rain as I believe the warm frontal boundary will not push north of us but rather reside just over to just south of us. I noted on running a radar animation (loop) that the precipitation is generally moving due north at a pretty good clip which initially lead me to believe the front would push right on through...but high pressure nosing down the spine of the state from the north appears as if it will hold fast and thus block the front from getting north of us (at least at ground level). As a result, we never see a good south wind (which would occur if the warm front were to push north of us)..but instead the wind will be a function of that high pressure area and its clockwise circulation..hence they should remain pretty much out of the east to east- northeast. This is what also leads me to believe that a better chance of thunder will be restricted to the southern tier of the state where southerly wind will work their way to the surface in earnest.

There does not appear to be any one, well defined low pressure system with this mish mash..but rather several smaller weak ones. One appears to be just off the coast of Sarasota...another one just to the NW of Key West..and another seems to be forming along an old inverted trough just to the east of Cape Canaveral - - all of which, when combined, forms a broad area of low pressure across the southern half of the state (and it's here that the most active weather will occur today). The northern periphery of this low pressure area defines the warm front's boundary (at least thermodynamically speaking).

As for Thanksgiving? Right now I'm tempted to reflect back on Monday's post, namely that we could still see some light rain around very early in the day with cloudy skies the rest of the day with the first peak of sun potentially showing its face right near sunset. Temperatures will be comfortable (in the low - mid 70s all day)...as the real cold front will not be punching through until shortly before sunset. And Friday? Again, continuing the same train of thought temperature wise. Namely, the warmest part of the day could very well be in the morning with temperatures dropping a bit the during the pre-noon hour, then holding steady and very breezy as much cooler/cold air is advected into the region under max heating of the day. The fact that the sun will be out on Friday and that the air is trying to warm us at the same time cold air is being shoved in alone will generate a lot of 'mixing' and enhance the surface northwest winds. Saturday and Sunday should be no worse than scattered high clouds and very cool by standards of late with cold mornings and tolerable afternoons with a notable decrease in the wind as day breaks Saturday.

Also keeping in line with the past few days, the warming trend will commence Sunday night into Monday morning as we regain our easterly wind component and marine air is nudged onto the coastal communities overnight.

Things happen fast from Monday to Wednesday as a "Southern Belle" Storm blossoms and moves east across the Deep South with yet another trailing cold front to sweep through which at this time looks like it will be early afternoon Tuesday. Rain with this system appears as though it will be restricted to Tuesday only. At this time, watching for developing of a pre-frontal trough which would pass through a good 3-5 hours before the actually cold front, and it's along that trough we'll be watching for decent thunderstorms beginning the post-dawn hours of Tuesday. But one good thing for a quick blurp, looks like we're going to avoid the coldest of air associated with this system too...courtesy of the ever present subtropical southern branch jet stream which has already been elaborated on in length in previous posts. Until that digs south of us..and then the northern branch digs south of us as well..we'll never get below 45 along the coast (for the most part). And that occurring is no where in sight.