Part IV - INSIDE THE TORNADO FUNNEL ! ! !

See the entire story so far by referring back to previous posts. In promise to Weatherwise, I am not posting the entire tale; therefore, this will be the last post. But in closing (but please read below), Capt. Hall did see the lower lip of the funnel tip the house next door and it instantly disentigrated. He estimated the winds to be 1000 mph (not a typo). Okay, here we go, inside the tornado funnel itself!!

COMPLETION:

As I gained footing another jarring

wham caught me, and I found myself

on my back over in the fireplace, and

the west wall of the room right down on

top of me. The "whams" were just

that. Instead of being blown inward

with a rending crash of timbers, as one

would expect of a cyclonic wind, the

side of the room came in as if driven by

one mighty blow of a gigantic sledge

hammer. One moment the wall stood.

The next it had been demolished. The

destruction had been so instantaneous

that I retained no memory of its progress.

I was standing, and then I was

down, 10 feet away. What happened

between, I failed to grasp or to sense.

By a quirk of fate I was not seriously

injured, and as soon as I had my senses

about me I clawed up through the

wreckage, and crawled around and

through the hole where the east door

had been. I could tell by the bluishwhite

light that the roof and ceiling of

this room were gone also. I almost ran

over my four-year-old daughter, who

was coming to see about me. Grabbing

her up I was instantly thrown down on

my side by a quick side-shift of the

floor. I placed her face down, and

leaned above her as a protection

against flying debris and falling walls.

I knew the house had been lifted

from its foundation, and feared it was

being carried through air. Sitting, facing

southward, I saw the wall of the

room bulge outward and go down. I

saw it go, and felt the shock, but still

there was no sound. Somehow, I could

not collect my senses enough to crawl

to the small, stout back room, six feet

away, and sat waiting for another of

those pile-driver blasts to sweep the

rest of the house away.

After a moment or so of this, I became

conscious that I was looking at my

neighbor's house, standing unharmed

100 feet to the south. Beyond I could see

'~ .. something had billowed

down from above, and stood

fairly motionless, save for a

slow up-and-down pulsation

.we were . . . inside the

tornado itself!"

others, apparently intact. But above all

this, I sensed a vast relief when I saw

that we were still on the ground. The

house had been jammed back against

trees on the east and south and had

stopped, partly off its foundation.

The period of relief I experienced,

however, was a very short one. Sixty

feet south of our house something had

billowed down from above, and stood

fairly motionless, save a slow up-anddown

pulsation. It presented a curved

face, with the concave part toward me,

with a bottom rim that was almost

level, and was not moving either

toward or away from our house. I was

too dumbfounded for a second, even to

try to fathom its nature, and then it

burst on my rather befuddled brain

with a paralyzing shock. It was the

lower end of the tornado! I was looking

at its inside, and we were, at the moment,

within the tornado itself!

The bottom of the rim was about 20

feet off the ground, and had doubtless

a few moments before destroyed our

house as it passed. The interior of the

funnel was hollow: the rim itself appearing

to be not over 10 feet in

thickness and, owing possibly to the

light within the funnel, appeared perfectly

opaque. Its inside was so slick

and even that it resembled the interior

of a glazed standpipe. The rim had another

motion which I was, for a moment,

too dazzled to grasp. Presently I

did. The whole thing was rotating,

shooting past from right to left with incredible

velocity.

I lay back on my left elbow, to afford

the baby better protection, and looked

up. It is possible that in that upward

glance my stricken eyes beheld something

few have ever seen before and

lived to tell about. I was looking far up

the interior of a great tornado funnel!

It extended upward for over a thousand

feet, and was swaying gently, and

bending slowly toward the southeast.

Down at the bottom, judging from the

circle in front of me, the funnel was

about 150 yards across. Higher up it

was larger, and seemed to be partly

filled with a bright cloud, which shimmered

like a fluorescent light. This

brilliant cloud was in the middle of the

funnel, not touching the sides, as I

recall having seen the walls extending

on up outside the cloud.

Up there too, where I could observe

both the front and back of the funnel,

the terrific whirling could be plainly

seen. As the upper portion of the huge

pipe swayed over, another phenomenon

took place. It looked as if the

whole column were composed of rings

or layers, and when a higher ring

moved on toward the southeast, the

ring immediately below slipped over to

get back under it. This rippling motion

continued on down toward the lowertip.

If there was any debris in the wall of

the funnel it was whirling so fast I

could not see it. And if there was a

vacuum inside the funnel, as is commonly

believed, I was not aware of it. I

do not recall having any difficulty in

breathing, nor did I see any debris

rushing up under the rim of the tornado,

as there surely would have been

had there been a vacuum.

Tornado Account - Part III (Courtesy of Weatherwise)

Drops of water were hitting my face

across the room. I tried to assure her.

"That gust always comes ahead of a

rainsquall," I shouted.

But there was no abatement in the

deafening hubbub outside. I know it

was growing in intensity by the second,

and-realized that a tornado was

right on us. I yelled in my wife's ear:

"Everybody in the back room: Get

under the bed!"

'~ .. the side offhe room

came in as if driven by one

mighty blow of a gigantic

sledge hammer."

Under a foolish impulse I jumped to

the south window for a last look outside

before following the family. As I did so

the overhead light went off (3:04 p.m.,

as shown later by our electric clock).

Between the flashes of lightning it was

as dark as midnight, but by shielding

my eyes I could see somewhat. I saw

that my neighbor's house across the

vacant lot was standing, but trees and

shrubbery out that way were flattened

almost to the ground. From the course

the planks, sheet-iron, and other debris

took as they 'flailed over the lot, I saw

that the wind was from due west. It

was a grim perspective, but out of it all

I gathered a bit of hope.

The wind was from the west! It

should have been from the south. While

a tornado, as a whole, moves generally

eastward, the funnel itself rotates

counterclockwise, and the west wind

indicated that we were in the southern

edge of the twister. It, apparently, was

passing just north of us. And too, the

vivid lightning and rending crashes

were passing on and there was now a

decided lull in the screeching roar

outside.

And then very suddenly, when I was

in the middle ofthe room, there was no

74 Weatherwise

noise of any kind. It had ceased exactly

as if hands had been placed over my

ears, cutting off all sound, except for

the extraordinary hard pulse beats in

my ears and head, a sensation I had

never experienced before in my life.

But I could still feel the house tremble

and shake under the impact of the

wind. A little confused, I started over

to look out the north door, when I saw

it was growing lighter in the room.

The light, though, was so unnatural

in appearance that I held the thought

for a moment that the house was on

fire. The illumination had a peculiar

bluish tinge, but I could see plainly. I

saw the window curtains lying flat

against the ceiling, and saw loose

papers and magazines packed in a big

wad over the front door. Others were

circling about the room, some on the

floor and others off it. I came out of my

bewilderment enough to make a break

for the back of the house.

But I never made it. There came a

tremendous jar, the floor slid viciously

under my feet, and I was almost thrown

down. My hat, which I had not removed,

was yanked off my head, and

all around objects flashed upward. I

sensed that the roof of the house was

gone.

Cold Approaches and Tornado Tale (Part 2) Continues...

HOME SPUN FORECAST: Warm today, in the low 80s with a SW breeze and a few more clouds. A cold front is approaching the Panhandle region today and will be on our doorstep Wednesday noon time. Should be passing through East Central Florida during the late afternoon or early evening under mostly cloudy skies, with maybe a rain shower or two. Otherwise, little impact with a return back to normal temperatures for the remainder of the week.

"TORNADO TALE" CONTINUATION- Part 2 - A True Story:

The west wind was changing, and in matter of a few seconds it had changed,and was blowing, undiminished, from the southeast toward the cloud. Lightning, the most fearful I have ever seen,

'~ .. then very suddenly, . . .

there was nonoise of any kind

...exceptforthe ex.troordlnary

hard pulsebeats In my ears

and head."

and wide as a house, flashed with some regularity between the scud-cloud and the ground.

In the comparative stillness following the terrific thunder crashes I couldhear a sustained hollow roaring, like a distant freight train. Feeling my wife's eyes on my face I said, "Sounds likeheavy hail." But it wasn't hail. She knew it wasn't, and I did too. You can't feel the sound of hail vibrating the air against your ear drums, norpulsating it against your face. This was a new sound, one we had never heard before.

The low, deadly looking scud-cloud was right on us now. and I could see no sign of a tornado funnel this side of the greenish rain. But it was there, and my wife knew it was there. I told her to go in and take the children. We had no storm cellar, but, had there been a tornado showing, we could have gotten into the car and run out of its path.

Now, we had to take a chance on it missing us. It was behind the rain, without question; I had seen them thatway. In another minute the low cloud passed close overhead, and the dusk of early evening enveloped us. I turned to go in, and as I went up the porch steps hailstones the size of tennis balls began falling on the house and in the yard.

These made my heart sink, for they almost invariably fall in the forefront of a tornado. They came down sparsely, one on about each square yard, but they made a most hideous bang and clatter, and I knew some of them were going all the way through our shingled roof. We all went into the west bedroom.

Lightning was striking all around the house now, adding its horror to the fast-rising din. As my wife snapped on the overhead light, a gust of wind and rain hit the west wall of the room with a crash. My wife was pointing to the west wall. "The wall's blown in!" She had to scream to make herself heard. I could see that it had slipped inward six inches or more at the ceiling, and was vibrating under the wind pressure.....TO BE CONTINUED....

Inside the Storm of May 4, 1948 (McKinney, Texas) - Part I

Retired Army Captain Roy S. Hall was sitting placidly in his back yard with his wife on the warm afternoon of May 3, 1948. He had noticed several small thunderstorms muttering and grumbling in the southwest but had given them little attention. His wife remarked that the wind was blowing from the south at about 25 mph and was exerting a steady pressure against the leaves of the nearby trees. A short time later Captain Hall was surprised to hear a loud clap of thunder.  Looking to the west, he noticed that a      huge, very black cloud obscured the entire horizon.  Below this was a feathery roll cloud characteristic of those which precede thunderstorms. Behind the roll cloud he could catch glimpses of a solid curtain of dark green rain.  The air appeared very humid and the temperatures was about 85F. In graphic terms, Captain  Hall in the magazine Weatherwise described what was to follow:

 

When I stepped off the front porch

one of those little thunderheads . . .

wasn't little any more, but spanned the

western sky, black as ink, less than

western sky, black as ink, less than

three miles away. And right across its

nearer rim, low, very low, a mile-long

scud-cloud was sliding along. It was

moving swiftly eastward, and the

whole cloud had done something I had

never heard of before. It had made a

right-angle turn in the sky and was cutting

across the wind current which

definitely had not slackened. I went to

the porch and yelled for my wife.

I did not know she had come out, till

she spoke and scared me. "You sounded

urgent, so I hurried the children out ...

Oh!" She had seen the storm for the

first time. "What a terrible cloud!" I

looked around and saw our four children

standing on the porch. She said

nothing further for the moment, but I

felt her hand touch my arm in a muted

question.

The squall, which was now about two

miles away, was coming directly toward

us, and the scud-cloud stretched across

its front between 400 and 500 feet above

the earth, was revolving as if it were being

pushed in reverse along the ground.

Behind the scud-cloud a curtain of

dark, green rain was falling in a solid,

opaque wall.

"Weather Made Clear" / Weatherwise - May 3rd Inside a Tornado

Image: Photo of a book recently purchased through Amazon. I checked this book out from the Elementary School Library (Freedom 7) innumerable times while in grade school. Maybe not so ironically, the goal of this blog is to have "Weather Made Clear" (in understanding, not conditions).

UP-TICK STORY: "Getting Tubed" - due to lack of weather in recent days and days to come over Central and South Central Florida, some future posts will include both our local weather forecast (abbreviated) as well as a very exictedly documented account concerning the experience of being inside a tornado published in both Weatherwise magazine (many years ago) as well as the book "Weather Made Clear", pictured above. This account is very descriptive in nature, as witnessed on May 3, 1948 at McKinney, Texas. I have been granted permission from Weatherwise to include excerpts from the account, but not in full, as that is where the first print of the account was published prior to that which is in "Weather Made Clear". I think you will find this very exciting to say the least!

TODAY: Large cut off low pressure near Bermuda is slowly filling and moving east today. This system is responsible for the small craft advisories, rip tide warnings, and larg surf the past few days. Although the system will move out, oceanic related symptoms will linger through Tuesday. Overhead, a full latitudinal ridge of high pressure has been extending from the Yucatan Peninsula, across the Eastern Gulf, and northward to Eastern Canada the past few days. Anticyclonic flow around this high pressure has created northerly component winds across the state, and sharp pressure gradient winds between the high and that low well off to the ENE has generated the large ocean swells. Additionally, we've had the added benefit of a very dry atmosphere although a thin layer of enough moisture has been evident between 3-5,000 feet to generate patches of stratocumulus clouds from time to time. All will stay the same today and for the most part Monday as well.

TUESDAY: Both the ridge and low pressure area press further east as a very large trough pushes east across the nation's mid section. In response, surface winds veer more toward the SE-S by day's end. There is a slight chance of a coastal rain shower from Daytona and points south during this transition in the morning, but only very slightly so. Of benefit, will be the slightly warmer temperatures, especially over night Monday night through Wednesday night.

WEDNESDAY: Morning should dawn with rain shower over much of NW Florida and parts of North Central Florida with a warm morning low temperature elsewhere in the state, especially along the east coast as a cold front makes its panhandle entrance known. If it's going to rain anytime before Thanksgiving it will be Wednesday afternoon and evening...particularly north of a Melbourne - Tampa Bay line. I say 'before', because Thanksgiving day proper is still up for grabs.

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: Initially temperatures will be like they've been the past few days, but an eventually warm up will be quick to follow as the next frontal system approaches very close to the Thanksgiving Day time frame. We can get more exact on the 'when' as that time draws closer.

So, as you can see, no significant changes in temperature or rain chances seem to be on the horizon for the next week other than a better rain chance on Wednesday and a return to slightly lower temperatures shortly thereafter, but those chances completely diminish by late in the week. We will moderate over the weekend with a return to weak, onshore flow (winds) and more benign weather other than patches of clouds and maybe a cloud sprinkle.

Will the Discovery Launch Remain on "Go" ? Hurricane Tomas

(Images show location of the cold front at 6am based on surface wind shift; also shown is a colorized depiction of cold air intrusion from the NNW and jet stream level wind forecast wind for 2pm today)

TODAY: No surprises in store for Florida through Saturday. The cold front passed through most central, Central Florida around 4AM and is in progress of clearing Miami-Dade as I write. There were some clouds behind the front, but they have since cleared the area as noted by looking outside as the first glimpses of Friday morning are now visible. Drier air at all atmospheric levels will continue to infiltrate from the NW-NNW, courtesy of Canada, ahead of a large dome of high pressure now over the Central Plains and behind the departing low-mid level trough now passing off the U.S. East Coast.

At this time, Shuttle Launch is a "Go". Very cool and breezy weather conditions will rule the roost today under full sunshine, not unlike a typical January day after a generic cold frontal passage. Surface winds are strongest over the intracoastal where cold air is passing over and mixing with the warmer air just above the warm waters of the Banana and Indian Rivers which then cross the barrier islands.

I believe this 'wind situation' will be further aggravated after prolonged, full insolation by early afternoon is realized ...as such, it will continue to be windy today. But will it be too windy for a launch? Apparently, that is not the line of thinking from the powers to be since launch is currently a "Go". It may be because these are not direct cross winds across the landing strip should a mission abort be required. I am personally concerned about the wind at 30,000 ft (jet stream level) being in the 100-125kt range from the SW (if direction matters that high aloft), as shown in the included forecast image for 2pm this afternoon. This has been a given in the forecast though for a day or two now, so apparently that is (nor has been) of no concern or factor in launch criteria. It's the surface wind speed and direction that are of factor should they need to abort back to KSC.

What will be the strength of the surface winds during the early afternoon hours once the affects of full insolation (heating with no blocking of sunshine due to clouds) is amassed. Mixing of mid-level winds to the surface could result in gusts in the 26mph range, at least...but it's going to come down to the final hour I fear.

And one more thing to consider, who says there won't be another 'technical difficulty'? These always seem to come up suspiciously. We'll see.

TONIGHT: Shiver my timbers...Brrrracious. Not turning the heat on, but the A/C is definitely out. Some might like open windows with a blanket for that matter, but I'd prefer to hold on to the last vestiges of summer as long as possible. Lows along the coast in the upper 40s do not seem unreasonable, colder inland of course and toward the west side of the state all the way down to Naples.

SATURDAY: Coldest day of this 'outbreak' (tongue in cheek). High temperature will flirt with 70 from the Cape and points south, more likely south of Vero. But keep in mind, given the lower sun angle at this time of year and the state of continued cold air advection at hand, the high temperature that will be recorded tomorrow won't be an all afternoon event. In reality, the high temperature for any one locale will only be sustained for less than an hour. For example, should the high temperature in Melbourne be 70F, that might be reached at 2:25pm and last for 10 minutes, whereas the official observation at 2pm could be 68F and then 67F the hour after. Best bet is to expect temperatures for the most part in the mid-60s when push comes to shove, with a rapid fall in the 5-6pm time frame.

SUNDAY: Already things get sticky for the intracoastal communities and south of Vero Beach along A1A. Believe it will be overnight that surface winds will veer more toward the N-NNE, which is essentially an onshore component that hugs the coast. That said, expect a tremendous temperature gradient (difference) between morning low temperatures felt in those areas from that which will be experienced to the west...by as much as 10-15F degrees.

By late morning to noon temperatures will definitely be on the moderating trend and the dry air at lowest levels will be quickly modified by the much warmer air residing just above Atlantic waters. This will be initially beneficial, but as time passes and moisture levels increases....marine stratocumulus clouds could be advected on shore from the Cape south to Miami. In fact, the latest NAM introduces low end showers from West Palm south by day's end, which eventually work further north to the Cape overnight toward Monday morning.

MONDAY: In staying with persistence in regards to yesterday's line of thinking, Monday morning will be pleasantly comfortable east of I95, and expect to see patches of stratocumulus clouds. Now, if the NAM is to verify, there is a good chance of rain over east Brevard county on this day. I believe it is over done though, for a variety of reasons...one (of many) will be alluded to under the "TROPICS". The GFS has indicated the lightest of possible rainfall that it can depict for the entire east coast south of Daytona for a number of days now beginning Monday, but it will probably just be some clouds making their presence known east of the state's spine.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Continued air mass modification as winds become more easterly and gradually abate. Lows in the mid-upper 60s and highs in the 80 degree range all locales. There will continue to be the ever-present possiblity of coastal sprinkles, but as noted yesterday, if they don't materialize by Monday evening they probably never will.

TROPICS: Hurricane Tomas approaching the passage between East Cuba and West Haiti as it intensifies. Rains are now impacting Haiti, and much more is to come. Tomas is forecast to make a passage just to the west of Haiti, but the worst of the storm will be over land. Some models actually intensify the storm while it is on its closest pass (assuming it doesn't move directly overhead). Winds wouldn't normally be too much a concern at it's current strength as far as wide spread devastation goes, but considering the structures in which earthquake survives reside in...anything above a moderate tropical storm is far from a 'sneeze'. Thus, winds and more so flash flooding and mudslides are chief concern beginning this afternoon and through all of Saturday and Sunday (at least).

Tomas's future? All of the models are assuming that the storm will continue to pass beyond Haiti and eastern Cuba on a general northward trek initially. But this does not put them out of the woods. Rains will continue to be pulled northward and across the land in a trailing moisture feed fashion. So, just exactly when all is said and done, in my mind, remains yet to be seen.

Now, as mentioned earlier above, what about the NAM? The 00z run was most disturbing. It showed that the storm would not be picked up by the trough now passing Florida and heading toward the Bahamas. As such, Tomas lingers south of Haiti for 84 hours at least. But keep in mind, this is the only model I saw that makes such a suggestion. It was also the only model that showed downright rain for East Brevard County on Monday as well.

Since the hurricane season began this year, I've noticed a continued tread for it to be overly aggressive from multiple angels of perspective. Whether this has always been the case or not, I cannot say that I've ever made such an observation, so perhaps this is something new to the model or purely enlightenment. Knowledge gained, more to attain.

Windy, Cold Blast Is On the Heels of Clouds/Showers

Images: Enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows the upper level low over the Northern Gulf and moisture plume from the SSW across Florida generating low/mid level clouds and showers. Tropical Storm Tomas is located just off to the bottom right of this image. Other image depicts a forecast for systems at 4pm this afternoon.

SYNOPSIS: Mid-Upper level low in the Northern Gulf is beginning to open up as it phases with a larger low pressure system located near Hudson Bay within the larger trough extending down the U.S. Eastern seaboard, mid-Atlantic, and NE states. Warm front extends across N. Florida where it had its passage through Central Florida Tuesday. Humongous region of high pressure embraces the western 2/3 of the country with strong northerly flow enhanced along its leading edge and behind the low pressure trough to its east. Cold front out-lines the leading edge of the cold air invasion approaching Florida as noted in the included image and as annotated currently. Front and trough postions are annotated for the generally speaking outllook at 4pm this Thursday afternoon.

TODAY: Shuttle Launch for today cancelled. No surprise there. Extensive cloudiness will be the rule of the day. The shield of overall largest rain coverage passed across the peninsula during the wee morning hours toward sunrise, and now seems to have shifted east as the low pressure areas aloft begin to merge NNE of Florida. However, as you can see, there is still at least one and maybe two pre-frontal troughs on the approach preceding the actual cold front. Deep layer moisture being advected north from near the Yucatan (SW Caribbean) will continue to stream across the state today, and as such, clouds will be the rule with some embedded light to moderate showers. With the cloud coverage, afternoon high temperatures will be held at bay in the upper 70s with SSW-SW winds.

Just exactly how much interaction between the pre-frontal troughs and heating of the day with the Florida peninsula is yet to be seen considering this early morning hour at time of writing as well as the expected cloud coverage limiting thermal instability, but don't expect a tremendous amount of regeneration until mid-late in the afternoon at which time both 500mb and 850mb energy (vorticity) is forecast by the 06Z GFS model run to pass over head preceding and during cold frontal passage (which will be over night).

All things considered, believe that clouds will be the rule with embedded areas of light to moderate rainfall patches which can occur anywhere/anytime across the state. Winds aloft will become quite strong throughout the day but remain light in comparison at the surface and will be unidirectional (from the same direction) with altitude. As such, although lack of directional shear will preclude development of rotation within any given storm structure, speed sheer will provide the ascent within the very moist envelope to enable continued cloud and shower recycling. Additional low level convergence in advance of pre-frontal trough(s) will give the added boost required for great precipitation coverage as well as intensity but timing of such features is highly questionnable if indeed they even manifest as forecast by some of the models. The time for the greatest chances of both heavier rains and coverage appears to be between 3-8pm this afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT: Cold front now appears as though it will clear all of Central Florida by 2-3AM and the entire state shortly after sunrise Friday. Skies will clear noticeably within the first 3 hours after FROPA (frontal passage) as temperatures being to drop. It is possible that the warmest time of the day Friday will be whenever you get out of bed in the morning, thus a sweater or jacket is highly recommended to be in arm on the way out the door and on the way to work, because by late in the afternoon the sky will have cleared and gusty, very cool/cold NW winds will be 'a-blowin' in full cold air advection mode straight out of Canada. It's a little early for the snow birds, but keep your eyes open as we might spot a flock pass over head.

FRIDAY: Day will break clear, crisp, windy, and cold by all standard for this time of year. We won't have felt temperatures like this state wide since early spring. Cold air advection from the broad expanse of high pressure passing across the country's Plain states will penetrate south of the Florida Keys with no problem whatsoever. High temperatures could top out in the upper 60s to low 70s but the winds will make it feel cooler, particularly in shady spots.

Shuttle launch? It's going to be another touch-n-go situation. My fears are that given the time it is supposed to go that the winds will be at their worst due to the fact that mid afternoon will be the peak time for the cold air aloft to mix down to the surface under sunny skies (and full insolation), thus transporting the stronger winds downward from their point of origin which will be aloft. Winds will die down by late evening several hours after sunset but not become calm.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: Pretty darned cold. Not extreme by any means, but we'll definitely know it. Saturday will be the best day for the afternoon launch if it won't have gone on Friday. Winds will die down some although not entirely but temperatures (although not a launch criteria factor for this event) will be very cool all day. Additionally, the clear skies will be optimal.

SUNDAY: Rebound! Mostly for the immediate east coast initially east of I-95 up and down the entire Florida East Coast. Surface and mid-level winds to veer more toward the NNE-NE as the core of high pressure approaches the mid-Atlantic coast.

Problem. Being as this is the first cold air invasion of the season the ocean temperatures in the Western Atlantic are still very warm in comparison. The core of the coldest air, having now passed east of the state, will pass over the warm waters and generate low level clouds which could be advected onshore up and down the coast by mid-late afternoon by the veering winds. Contingent upon the depth and extent of cloud coverage, we might start to feel a barely detectable sprinkle hither and yon, but for the most part this won't be a problem late Sunday.

MONDAY: Large temperature gradient from the coast east of US1 to the more inland locales. A much warmer morning in store for the coast with lows in the low-mid 60s, whereas the inland portions as well as the Florida west coast will be in the 40s and 50s from Naples to Tallahassee. Additionally, and assuming the clouds move in along the east coast as feared, the overnight low temperature along the east coast will be moderated by both the wind blowing off the warm Atlantic waters as well as the thermal blanket provided by the cloud coverage reducing the impact from any potential radiational cooling. Sprinkles do appear a possibility as well, east of I-95.

TUESDAY-NEXT THURSDAY: Not much change through the week other than temperatures state wide from coast to coast will be moderating. We'll still have to see what happens with the stratocumulus cloud decks which if they haven't developed by now, probably never will.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Tomas is beginning to curve more northerly and has its eyes somewhere between extreme Eastern Cuba and Haiti. I do not believe this storm will regain hurricane status, but if it does it will be a low end Category 1. The main concern is that it appears likely the central circulation will pass just west of, or right over, the west side of Haiti. This is a bad thing, seeing as how the greatest moisture influx will be on the right side of the storm. Rains will fall over Haiti well before the storm center makes its closest pass, and persist well after the circulation has moved on as deep layer moisture continues to be drawn northward and across the mountainous, rugged terrain which peaks around 8700 ft. Deep moisture loves steep rugged terrain , as such features act as a lifting mechanism , let alone the lifting mechanism provided by the storm itself. In other words, big rains spell out "landslides and flash flooding" for the tent metropolis for a region already plagued by the devastating January earthquake as well as four other tropical systems during the past ten years of high consequence. Enough is enough!

Glimpses of January to Arrive in the Heels of Rains/Storms

(Images: Latest RUC depiction (and surface observations) reveal a weak surface low over land, with a stronger one developing in the Gulf south of Louisiana; Water vapor shows the supporting upper level system over Southeast Texas; and, forecast for 2pm Thursday shows pre-frontal trough and cold front affecting Florida).

SYNOPSIS: Low pressure is developing over the North/Central Gulf early this Wednesday morning, while a much stronger low prevails way North in Canada. These two systems will phase during the course of the next 24-36 hours as they both move east. Over Florida, the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) forecast and surface observations reveal a weak inverted trough along the Florida East Coast this morning, under/near which winds are essentially calm with muggy air conditions. The warmest temperatures are along the A1A corridor where temperatures in the low 70s are found. In deed, Cocoa was 62F/Melbourne 64F degrees last hour whereas my porch reads 71F. To put things in perspective, we haven't seen a temperature as low as 62F yet this season along A1A, but such readings have already been common place west of US1.

TODAY: Winds in the mid-upper levels will begin to respond to the presence of the low pressure complex over the Deep South as it approaches from the west and as such, winds aloft will begin to strengthen from the SW at all levels except near ground level where they will remain from the SE to eventually S late in the day toward evening. The depth of moisture availability through the atmospheric column will increase today providing the potential for rainshowers at any time with increased cloud coverage, especially with heating of the day. There is no triggering mechanism in place to pass overhead, so afternoon showers will be generated due to convergence boundaries along the sea breeze. Best chance for any showers along the immediate coast will likely be very late morning to early afternoon today - - shifting inland by afternoon much like yesterday.

TONIGHT: Warm evening in store with increasing clouds and showers remaining a possibility.

THURSDAY: The once again delayed launch of the Shuttle will likely be delayed further, if not definitely.

As has been depicted for 36 hours now, the cold front will be preceded by a pre-frontal trough. The trough will cross the peninsula during the afternoon Thursday between 12pm - 7pm from west to east. Due to the lack of instability along/ahead of this feature, a unidirectional wind profile aloft, and lack of low level forcing without the presence of strong surface winds than otherwise could occur in other similar set ups, the possibility of severe weather appears to be remote. Therefore, would not expect to see a Severe Thunderstorm Watch box being issued for the state; however, due to strong winds aloft during Thursday afternoon and along and behind the pre-frontal trough, there could be some locally near severe level wind gusts in any strong thunderstorm that can develop. Should these occur, the most likely location would be from North Central to South Central Florida from coast to coast between the hours of 12pm (on the west coast first) to 6pm (on the east coast) along the pre-frontal surface trough in the 'whited-out' area of the included image above.

The actual cold front lags a good 6 hours behind this boundary. Once any potential threat of thunderstorms passes, the potential continues for rain until shortly after the actual cold front passes. So one all is said and done, the best chance for rain on Thursday appears to begin after 1pm on the east side of the state with the strongest storms from 2pm -7pm, followed by areas of light to moderate rain through the overnight hours.

FRIDAY: The cold front proper will be overhead if not already having cleared all of North and Central Florida at sunrise. Cloudy skies, light rain, and an abrupt wind shift to the NW-NNW will accompany the front. Temperatures will drop noticeably within an hour or two after passage but level off for the remainder of the day somewhere in the mid-70s. Skies could remain mostly cloudy for several hours after FROPA (frontal passage), if not for most of the day. Refinement on the timing of persistent cloud cover will need to be made contingent upon how well things come together over night tonight and early Thursday.

SATURDAY: "Brisk Winds and Fair" (as our old barometer used to read after a cold front). And quite cool to downright cold to boot. Looking for morning lows inland to be in the mid-upper 40s over all but extreme East Central (namely the intracoastal communities) where lows should be in the low-mid 50s. Skies to be near clear with an afternoon high in the low 70s. This will be like a normal January day. Winds to begin to relax a bit over the late night. As one would expect, the coldest of air will be located over the Panhandle where some temperatures in the 30s might be found.

SUNDAY: Winds becoming more northerly and decreasing with another relatively cold morning accompanied by clear skies. Nice morning to wear your Sunday Best that's been stored away for 7 months. Winds to gradually shift to NNE by late in the day.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Moderating overnight/early morning temperatures east of US1 as an onshore component wind direction becomes established. However, as we work toward Tuesday or Wednesday especially, the remaining cold air now having pushed east will be riding over warm ocean Atlantic water and generate stratocumulus clouds which will be advected on shore up and down the entire Florida East coast. These cloud should remain east of the spine of the state and more likely thin considerably once one works west of I-95 over Central and North Florida, but approach the Big Lake along and south of its eastern shores. Maybe a spit of light rain will accompany the clouds periodically of non-significant nature. Afternoon high temperatures, should these cloud indeed develop to the level I fear, will be held at bay in the mid-upper 70s due to lack of full, mid-fall sunshine.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Tomas has been downgraded to depression status as it moves slowly west through the Southern Caribbean. It is somewhat perplexing as to why the system has been weakening since shear is not all that strong and water temperatures are still warm in that region. The same storm system that will clear Florida overnight Thursday and Friday will pick up what will either once again be Tropical Storm or Hurricane Tomas and lift it off to the NNE-NE by late in the weekend into early next week. Regardless of the storms wind strength, it is the rainfall this system will be remembered by for the folks in Haiti, The Dominican Republic, and perhaps Eastern Cuba.

Of greatest concern is over Haiti where over the past ten years they have been heavily directly affected by 4 tropical systems and of course this year's Earthquake in January. The mountainous terrain over Haiti peaks at over 8000 ft upon de-forested soils, leaving water runoff a major issue should heavy and persistent rainfall occur there. And, as it now appears, that rainfall potential looks to be looming as a coming reality by late in the weekend. The eventual track of this tropical system is problemmatic as well. Seeing as how the system is already so far south, the trough passing to the north may have a hard time carrying the storm away entirely, so even if the central circulation passes to the north, moisture/rains could lag behind over the land areas already outlined for an extended period. Therefore, flooding will be the big issue for the tent metropolis.

Election Day & STS-133/Discovery Launch Weather, Drought

(Images: Surface moisture flux divergence max shown at the Cape; My Canaveral precipitation October calendar)

SYNOPSIS: Weak warm frontal type boundary taking shape from near Tampa to Cape Canaveral early this Election Day morning across the sunshine state. Relatively large mid-upper low pressure system is becoming more organized near the E and SE Texas Gulf Coast as another system approaches extreme northern portions of the Plains across Montana and into N. Dakota.

SYNOPSIS FORECAST: Mid-upper level low pressure over East and SE Texas continues to develop and sink south to SSE into the Northern Gulf of Mexico as northern trough continues east and deepens as it enters the Great Lakes and Northern Ohio Valley. These two systems will eventually merge as the southern low pressure system opens up. They will move progressively east in tandem and exit the U.S. East Coast Friday. High pressure over South Central Florida in the mid level will shift east of the state later today and into Wednesday.

LOCALLY: Isentropic lift along a weak warm frontal boundary over Central Florida is generating clouds and some spotty showers. As of 7am, the most significant areas of rain were over/near both the west and east coass and along the warm front where meager CAPE values and Lapse Rates are also being maximized. So far two rain showers have passed directly over Cape Canaveral in the small blue patch shown in the attached image where surface moisture flux is the greatest and where the front resided at the time depicted (6AM).

ELECTION DAY WEATHER: Expect the warm front to make slow-n-steady progress northward and toward the Panhandle by late afternoon. Believe the greatest chance of showers will remain along the front, however south of the boundary (over the peninsula) and in the 'warm sector' ample low-mid level moisture will reside for periods of somewhat abundant cloud coverage and spotty showers. Thus, a spotty shower is not out of the question anytime / any where, although they should be more likely inland over North Central Florida once the East Coast sea breeze sets in. Continued pleasantly warm. Overall, it should be a nice day though.

TONIGHT/LAUNCH DAY: Low pressure near the Texas Southeast Coast will deepen and being to move east while Florida remains in a muggy, warm air mass. Instability over the state will be somewhat limited; however, with increasing moisture being advected over the the state in advance of the approaching low pressure system, clouds could prove to be a problematic reality as may rain showers over or near the launch pad. At this time, it actually looks like the best weather tomorrow could be before the launch window with favorable launch conditions becoming more likely to become unfavorable during and more so, after, the launch window as we work into the post-sunset hours. It's going to be another one of "those" touch-n-go situations as it looks now. It'll all be in the details when push comes to shove, but would hate to have made a long trip to Florida to see this launch if time constraints are an issue. At the moment though, they are giving the launch a 70 percent chance of a go, but I have a feeling that number might go down to 50/50 later today.

THURSDAY: Best chance that the Severe Drought Conditions over portions of Central and North Florida will get a small reprieve from further short-term damage. In other words, it looks like a darned good chance that many areas could receive rain. The amount, if any, of thunder included is a topic of whimsical debate amongst forecast offices...but for now...it looks to be a reality in my mind. Wind fields and instability levels do not look very conducive for generation of severe weather at this time, but thereare hints of such desires craving to be met particularly across North and Central Florida late Thursday into very early Friday (post midnight). Looks like the best chance if we are to get a thunderstorm will be over night Thursday into Friday.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Shiver my Timbers!, darned it. Cold front should be lying across Central Florida at sunrise, Friday while on a SE -S trek down the remaining peninsula during the course of the day. Winds will pick up from the NW-NNW, ushering in drier and much cooler air throughout the day. Our temperature on Friday will vary little from that from which it will be at sunrise due to cold air advection during the course of peak heating/maximum sun angle. Contingent upon the remaining cloud cover, good insolation combined with cold air advection from the north could result in some very breezy conditions in open locales during the mid-afternoon hours.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Coldest days since early spring for everyone in general! Details / refinement on the 'wheres' are being reserved for future posts. But for now, it appears a typical drainage type, north flow set up, will be in place by Sunday or perhaps Monday morning. This leaves the A1A corridor from the Cape to Miami the warmest spot in the state, with the coldest air being reserved for the spine of the state to as far south as the Kendal area west of Miami, extending from near Okeechobee to Punta Gorda/Naples on the west coast, and of course all of North Florida from coast to coast. Would not be surprised to see, in general, lows in the upper 40s in the coldest locales Sunday morning with mid-50s at the coast. Highs will be only in the low to mid-70s. But again, we can investigate these numbers with greater precision come that time frame.

DROUGHT SUMMARY (data courtesy of the Melbourne, FL NWS):

THE COLD FRONTS THAT PASSED THROUGH DURING OCTOBER PROVIDED

LITTLE...IF ANY MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA. SOME OF THE
LOCALLY HEAVIER ONE DAY TOTALS SUCH AS 1.54 INCHES AT STUART (STRF1)
ON THE 25TH WERE MORE A RESULT OF CONVERGENT SHOWER BANDS MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WAS RECORD SETTING FOR MANY LOCATIONS:

-ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAD THE DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD WITH
NO RAINFALL (0.00 INCHES) REPORTED. SO FAR SINCE THE END OF OCTOBER
THERE HAVE BEEN 33 STRAIGHT DAYS WHERE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS NOT
BEEN OBSERVED. THIS IS THE 4TH LONGEST RAIN-FREE PERIOD ON RECORD
FOR THIS SITE...WHICH TIES ANOTHER 33 DRY DAY PERIOD BACK IN 1990
THAT LASTED THROUGH JANUARY 25TH.

-MELBOURNE HAD THE DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD WITH ONLY A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. AS OF THE END OF OCTOBER...MELBOURNE HAS TIED FOR THE 6TH
LONGEST STRING OF DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL...CURRENTLY AT 32
DAYS. THE LAST 32 DRY DAY SPELL WAS SET IN 1956 WHICH LASTED THROUGH
DECEMBER 28TH.

-VERO BEACH ALSO HAD THE DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD WITH 0.01 INCHES.
THIS 0.01 INCHES OCCURRED ON THE 14TH WHICH ENDED A 14 DAY RAIN-FREE
STREAK. HOWEVER SINCE THE 14TH...NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN
AT VERO BEACH. THIS HAS LEAD TO ANOTHER 17 DAYS WHERE RAINFALL HAS
NOT EXCEEDED TRACE AMOUNTS.

-DAYTONA BEACH HAD THE SECOND DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD WITH ONLY
0.18 INCHES. THEIR 26 DAY RAIN-FREE STREAK ENDED ON THE 25TH WHEN
0.01 INCHES WAS OBSERVED.

TOP 5 DRIEST OCTOBER RANKINGS (IN INCHES):

DAYTONA          ORLANDO       MELBOURNE     VERO BEACH
1. 0.04  1940   1. 0.00  2010  1. TRACE 2010  1. 0.01  2010
2. 0.18  2010   2. 0.35  1967  2. 0.39  1984  2. 0.48  2009
3. 0.19  1967   3. 0.43  1979  3. 0.62  1976  3. 0.75  1962
4. 0.93  2000   4. 0.46  1963  4. 0.67  1940  4. 0.77  2003
5. 0.97  1960   5. 0.48  1974  5. 0.69  1979  5. 0.98  2006

TOP 6 LONGEST PERIODS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL (NUMBER OF DAYS
AND PERIOD END DATE):

   DAYTONA                         ORLANDO
1. 58  05/04/1967               1. 37  05/12/1971
2. 47  12/02/1967               2. 36  05/18/1979
3. 39  01/03/1934               3. 35  12/07/1967
4. 36  12/31/1932               4. 33  10/31/2010, 01/25/1990
5. 35  01/11/1929               5. 32  06/10/2000, 05/28/1965...
6. 34  04/12/1978               6. 30  02/21/1989

  MELBOURNE                       VERO BEACH
1. 46  01/03/1969               1. 41  05/24/1970
2. 38  12/10/1967, 03/13/1961   2. 32  02/04/2003, 01/29/1960
3. 37  05/12/1971               3. 31  12/09/1995
4. 34  12/27/1961               4. 29  03/11/1951
5. 33  05/07/1986, 03/15/1956   5. 28  12/06/1942
6. 32  10/31/2010, 12/28/1956   6. 27  05/23/1967, 03/15/1962...

BELOW IS A LIST OF OBSERVED PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND RAINFALL
STATISTICS FOR SELECT SITES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR OCTOBER
2010:

STATION           OCT 2010      30 YEAR   DEPARTURE     PERCENT OF
               RAINFALL      NORMAL    FROM NORMAL     NORMAL

DAYTONA BEACH      0.18"         4.37"      -4.19"           4%
(DAB)
ORLANDO            0.00"         2.66"      -2.66"           0%
(MCO)
MELBOURNE          TRACE         4.76"      -4.76"           0%
(MLB)
VERO BEACH         0.01"         5.04"      -5.03"         0.2%
(VRB)
CLERMONT           0.34"         2.40"      -2.06"          14%
(CLRF1)
DELAND             0.14"         4.09"      -3.95"           3%
(DELF1)
SANFORD            0.00"         3.56"      -3.56"           0%
(SFNF1)
TITUSVILLE         0.17"         4.29"      -4.12"           4%
(TITF1)
FORT PIERCE        0.32"         5.82"      -5.50"           6%
(FPCF1)
STUART             1.87"         6.29"      -4.42"          30%
(STRF1)
CAPE CANAVERAL     0.29" (unofficially from my backyard)

FOR MORE LOCAL CLIMATE INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MELBOURNE AND CLICK ON THE "LOCAL" LINK UNDER THE
CLIMATE SUBSECTION ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE.