Clearing From North To South Into Tonight- Cool Sunny Weekend

Image: 1pm visible satellite image of Florida and surrounding waters. As we can see, not much in local surface features/boundaries at the surface to decipher with the cold front now over the Florida Straits pulling out to the east and south slowly today through tonight.

The dashed black line is referred to below.

TODAY: Low pressure system east of St. Augustine that formed east of Central Florida overnight continues moving off to the NE-ENE and will pass off the Coast of North Carolina today. Coastal North Carolina is in the 'back-wash' from this low with a cold rain with some sleet mixed in there. Elsewhere, the trailing cold front from that low is located across the Florida Straits north of Cuba with high pressure building east across Texas and into the Northwest Gulf of Mexico.

Most of the moisture over North and Central Florida is confined to the low levels, where as more mid-level moisture can be found south of the dashed black line in the provided picture from space above. It is south of that line that some spotty rain showers can be found through the remainder of the afternoon, with that dashed black line working south of the Florida tip shortly after sunset (meaning an end to the rain chances there as well).

Most model guidance, confirmed by watching satellite animations early this afternoon, confirm that significant atmospheric drying is working south and east from the Panhandle , with a pronounced drying over Central to occur during late afternoon. However, there is still some thin layers of moisture remaining, and dew points will remain elevated this afternoon, so any clearing to occur (in fact, there is a sucker hole of clearing skies about to pass over my location as I type) will be short lived as the sun works on the clearing patches to create more clouds where the shallow (but ample enough moisture still resides) to create more clouds. South Florida from Ft. Pierce south will continue to remain under the more solid cloud deck through sunset, whereas further north and west folks might even see a nice sunset north of and along I-4 with some folks from Brevard County north also getting a peak, perhaps.

Sort of looks to me that 'some' folks over much of Eastern South Central Florida (north of Sebastian) might have one of those days where the first true peak at the sun will occur during its final hour before setting today ....a dime late, dollar short, but reassuring to know the sun does still exist. Might have to look outside at just the right time to see it though.

Otherwise, it's going to be a very cool afternoon with a NNW-NW wind blowing until later this afternoon, backing to NW-WNW later in the day as the final spoke/ trough axis at roughly 2000ft pulls past and the low pressure moves further away from North Carolina. Highs today under the clouds will struggle to break 60F degrees today over North Central Florida (north of the Beach line), with the warmest spots poking above that will be those who catch a thinning in the cloud shield for an appreciable amount of time.

South Central will top out in the low-mid 60s and warmer yet further south, but no good warm temperatures anywhere today due to either dense cloud cover further south, or cold air intrusion further north.

TONIGHT: High pressure will be building across the northern Gulf of Mexico later tonight through Sunday during which time all of our mid-upper level trough axis' will cross through (with the final swipe by being the one around 20,000 feet early Sunday morning). Surface winds overnight during the onset of cold air advection will tend more toward the NNW as temperatures fall into the low-mid 40s North Central to Central this evening, with the A1A corridor not likely to fall below 46F from Port Canaveral and south.

SATURDAY/MONDAY MORNING: Extreme South Florida looks to clear of any remaining clouds early morning with no rain chances. Cool on Saturday and Sunday with highs flirting with the low-mid 60s most areas Central and warmer south. Nice NW-NNW breeze all day under sunny skies. Sunday and Monday morning look the coldest and winds decrease during the late night through early morning hours, with Monday being the coldest on the west side of the state around the west side of Lake Okeechobee northward into Polk and Osceola County as cold air pools there in what looks to be a classic "cold air drainage flow sunrise" with very light to calm wind. They could very well find frost there in parts of Miami's and Tampa's NWS offices areas of responsiblity. Maybe even Melbourne NWS will be on the lookout for frost in their South Central interior area.

Warmest spots on Sunday/Monday morning appear will be along A1A from Port Canaveral to Miami and the Keys where temperatures there could be a good 10-15 degrees warmer than the cold area noted inland (not including the Panhandle area that will have similar morning temperatures). Afternoon highs Sunday similar to that of Saturday but it will feel very nice with a light NNW wind under sunny skies in wind protected areas out of the shade.

MONDAY-EARLY TUESDAY: High pressure in the mid-levels builds east across the Deep South and exits off the U.S. East Coast north of Florida. Circulation around this high on Tuesday morning could very well be the introduction to prevailing easterlies pattern through next weekend and beyond. Still looks like these will be noticed by somewhat of a backdoor cold front as mentioned a few days ago ( or boundary) by a wind surge from the ENE-NE and some cool air noticeable mostly along the entire east coast from Jax to Miami (more so from Port Canaveral to JAX) than further south where they will hardly even notice a change south of Ft. Pierce.

But this 'front', per se, will be the harbinger to the end of cold overnight temperatures heading into Wednesday and beyond as this high pressure moves east and sinks south with the axis running either directly overhead or just north of Central Florida. This will create prolonged period of light east winds under sunny skies with highs in the upper 60s to near 70F from the Port to JAX along A1A, warmer south...especially south of Ft. Pierce where they are closer to the warmer Gulf Stream waters and all areas inland...including the Panhandle.

Morning lows though will be warmer along A1A with lows near 60-63F as opposed to mid 50s away from the coast at sunrise. Under this surface flow regime, upper level winds will be very light with high pressure bubbles in the mid-level readjusting around the SE U.S. with Florida being the epicenter, always in or near the middle of this fair weather regime.

Surface Cold Front Heading Into South Florida

Images: 1) Surface front location at 8:15AM this Thursday morning, very weak surface low pressure bubbles based on pressure readings, with no associated cyclonic circulations 2) surface boundary location around 10:15am right as the front crossed the Beach Line in East Central Florida

RECAP CENTRAL: Cold front crossed the Beachline at 10:15am this morning accompanied by some moderate, spotty rain showers and low cloud ceilings as well as some big temperature drops. Shortly after passing (for example)...the Canaveral AFS was 55F degrees whereas Melbourne to the south was 75F. Of course behind the boundary winds shifted immediately to the NNW-N. Front is now located across South Brevard as of 1pm and treading south toward South Florida where temperatures are in the low-mid 80s, and last I looked Ft Lauderdale was reading 87F and West Palm was 86F... with dewpoints around 70F all across SE Florida.

TODAY: For North Central and Central expecting mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. Where temperatures dropped initially they will likely rebound a bit this afternoon with peak heating yet to arrive. Rain showers are quickly disappearing from the radar scope behind the boundary and the sun is even trying to poke out here and there. Looks like it will be mostly cloudy this afternoon for a brief time, becoming predominately overcast once again once the sunshine works on the moist atmosphere still in place this afternoon. In fact, it seems to be getting cloudier even now as I type this! Can't write off a rain shower along and south of the Beachline entirely either through the remainder of the day, mostly later this afternoon and early evening hours.

The mid-upper level troughs associated with this weather complex have yet to pass...and as such the true cold air advection lags behind the surface front by over 36 hours. Where temperatures dropped initially I'm expecting a small rebound into the mid 50s (further north) to near 60 the remainder of the afternoon. Further south along and ahead of the boundary the change in temperatures will not be as drastic, but there will be one to a smaller degree.

SOUTH FLORIDA: As noted above, very warm to almost hot (for this time of year) down there early this afternoon, as well as muggy. The atmosphere has been quick to respond in the pre-frontal environment with some rain showers popping. Latest SPC mesoanalysis does show some moderately unstable air down that way, being somewhat capped by warm air aloft. A little convergence along the front proper could instigate some good lightning strikes here and there, but wind profiles are almost unidirectional...with no sea breeze convergence in play to aid in low level convergence and weaker winds aloft as those which are flowing overhead across Central and North Florida. Would expect the best chance of heaviest rain/possible lightning over eastern Palm Beach and Broward Counties...possibly Dade as well but it gets sketchy further south. In short, no severe or overly strong storms, but thunderstorms nonetheless.

TONIGHT: All model guidance is showing a resurgence in mid level moisture by tonight and into Friday ahead of the mid-level troughs, and cloud cover depictions are filled in across Central and South Florida through Friday in accordance with the aforementioned. With the sun poking through nicely as I type it is tempting to ignore what guidance portrays, but the fact is definite that those troughs are a long way off still as a more zonal flow across the SE states develops. It's clear as mud until sometime mid-morning Saturday when we are clear of any mid-level influences with yet the upper level 500mb trough to clear on Sunday.

With that said, believe it will remain mostly cloudy this afternoon despite the peak of sunshine now being observed here with temperatures otherwise noted above. Not much of a cool off tonight with cloud cover and higher dewpoint air still in place. Looks like the low tonight will fall to about what it got down to right after the front passed, if even that. Additionally, expecting winds to become more northeasterly later today (off the water) which will modify the overnight low temperature near the coast.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy through the day with a high in the low to mid 60s. Looks like the front will hang up for a bit over far southern Dade County tonight with a weak surface low forming offshore which will race off to the NE across the Bahamas which will aid in dragging the front completely through the state and the Keys. Locally, NE winds tonight over Central might back more toward the north early tomorrow...then resume a NE component by late morning as the low pulls away and high pressure tries to exert a greater influence from the north.

SATURDAY: As written yesterday, the NAM and GFS greatly diverge in regards to cloud cover and even a rain chances over Central and South this day. The later two runs of the NAM continue to show that trend, whereas the GFS shows nothing like this. Both models are consistent in their disagreeing outlook for Saturday. At least they are consistent, but regrettably different.

With that said, in this post I'm running optimistically and siding with the GFS, given the tendency for the NAM to run on "5-hour Energy" drinks at times as well as with the developing zonal flow pattern now in the works which should stretch out all the dynamics which would otherwise support rain chances or significant cloud cover on Saturday (as shown by the NAM). But to blend the two a bit (which is probably unrealistic) I'll give the NAM a little benefit of the doubt and place some clouds in for the early morning of Saturday...clearing within 2-3 hours after sunrise once heating commences. It's very hard to pick out a time of solid cold air advection, but it currently appears that it will be once the low that develops off the SE Florida Coast moves NE and develops into a closed 925mb low overnight into Saturday..another reason to clear out the clouds (if there are any) Saturday morning, which would be a bit in response to the final 500mb trough axis sinking through on going into Sunday...per the stretched out vorticity fields in the both the NAM and GFS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: By Sunday morning the show is over from the synoptic scale meteorological aspect at least in regards to the SE United States. Coolest mornings these two days with a mainly north wind. Immediate A1A will be spared the worst of the cool spell (note, I didn't write 'cold') given the wind component with the interior and west side of the state getting the coolest to almost cold, but not freezing cold by any means. Lows along A1A will be in the upper 40s, whereas outside of the Barrier Islands it will be in the low-mid 40s. Monday morning will be the transition morning in regards to the cold, looks like a pool of cold air will reside on the north and west sides of Lake Okeechobee far away from the area of interest in this post, as well as over North Florida where it goes without saying it will be colder all mornings for a few more days. Otherwise, other areas will be similar to that felt on Sunday morning.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Afternoon highs transition from 60s to low-mid 70s with the biggest transition on Wednesday when higher dewpoint air overspreads the entire peninsula and North Florida. Morning lows will only be in the 50s to even low 60s A1A corridor on Wednesday morning with afternoon highs in the 70s.

BEYOND: Not much too write as it stands now for a good week. Focus will be on where high pressure that moves in will have originated from. Some periods of stratocumulus decks, and maybe a back door cold front set up around late Tuesday or Wednesday with little affect other than a coastal wind surge and a line of stratocumulus clouds, all of which is well beyond the scope and resolution (with any accuracy) of model data given the number of days between now and then.

Happy Birthday To The National Weather Service

Today is the 141st birthday of the National Weather Service. On February 9, 1870, President Ulysses Grant signed a joint resolution of Congress authorizing the Secretary of War to establish a national weather service. At that time, it was called the Division of Telegrams and Reports for the Benefit of Commerce and located under the U.S. Army Signal Service.

The roots of this weather observation network goes back to the 1800s and the innovative mind of Brigadier General Albert J. Myer. As the first Chief Signal Officer of the weather arm of the U.S. Army Signal Corps, General Myer laid the foundation that would carry the National Weather Service from its Army roots to a federal agency in the mid-1970s, poised for a rapid scientific and technological transformation.

TODAY: Sunny and warmer for Central Florida today from that of yesterday. Very weak inverted trough from near KSC off to the NE of Daytona is meeting a very weak low pressure circulation off of Jacksonville with somewhat of a warm frontal boundary as shown. This really isn't a warm front per se, but rather the dividing line of where much warmer surface temperatures and higher dew point air is located underneath a broad band of strong mid and upper level winds aloft. The boundary will likely push further north during peak heating today over the interior, less so along the coast as high pressure is trying to wedge south along the coast into Jacksonville.

By sunset this boundary should be near or just north of Ormond Beach on the coast and closer to I-10 over the Central interior east of Tallahassee thanks to daytime heating. Meanwhile, Central and South Florida will warm to the low to mid-70s with a few upper 70s over the preferred area near Naples as is normally the case with a SE wind during the winter. Coolest along A1A north of Fort Pierce where the temperature will taunt with 70-73F degrees toward Southern Volusia County. As I type this boundary might very well be passing Daytona, so they should warm from the low 60s that I saw there when I began to write.

TONIGHT: Approaching cold front if you haven't heard by now which took the temperatures in the panhandle of Texas and portions of SW Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle to below zero yesterday is pushing east and has cleared all of Texas, now bisects Louisiana in half diagonally from NE to SW. The front will continue east tonight with weak cyclo-genesis (formation of a surface low) to occur just SE of Louisiana in the Gulf waters tonight. Locally, an expanse of mid-level clouds will begin to spread east and across North and Central Florida after dark in advance of this 'complex', with overcast skies expected before midnight from Brevard County north.

ESE-SE winds south of the boundary shown in the first image will veer to south then SW overnight south of where the boundary is shown to be in the second image at 7am Thursday morning. We can also see in this image that the surface low off the Louisiana coast will have moved ESE overnight.

Overnight lows a good 5-10 degrees warmer tonight over Central Florida under the clouds and developing warm and moist SW surface flow. Additionally, we'll see a area of light to moderate rain move on to the west coast around midnight which will spread east mainly across the north half of Florida (including the I-4 corridor) while it teases the Beachline sector of East Central Florida until right about sunrise. A few light spits could fall as far south as SR520 after 5AM but not any further south then there for starters.

THURSDAY POST SUNRISE: Another one of those shallow/ surface boundary days not syncing with the upper level features as with has occurred with the previous two cold fronts. A sign of a change of seasons perhaps over Florida? Broad expanse of deep moisture from the surface through up through the mid-levels will spread across Central through mid-morning and beyond. The first surface low shown in the first image off of Florida will have taken off to the northeast and strengthen as shown in the second image)...while the low that forms off the Louisiana Coast moves ESE toward Tampa Bay as also shown in the second image by sunrise. These two lows combined will form a cold front that will sink slowly south through Central Florida during the afternoon which will reach Dade County by sunset. This will be a very shallow boundary, but nonetheless is followed in its passing by a NW surface wind in the bottom few thousand feet. However, it will be outrunning all the mid-upper level support (as such, the wind at those levels will remain from the WSW well after its passage). This will create a bit of an warm-air overrunning cool surface air event for Central Florida on Thursday afternoon, especially after noon time.

The surface boundary should be placed near a Cape Canaveral to Tampa Bay line shortly after noon time (around 1pm) and then near Miami-Dade by 7pm. The weak surface low will track across Central Florida proper and exit the coast near Canaveral after 1pm...followed by a NW wind, cooler air, cloudy and wet conditions. Once it reaches the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream it will strengthen and pull off to the NE more quickly in similar fashion as the earlier weak low had done. Looks like the rain should end for Central Florida near sunset.

Thunderstorms? Very sketchy at this point. The Storm Prediction Center has all of South Central and South Florida in a risk for general thunder (some strong due to winds) tomorrow. The problem with this for Central proper (Tampa to Canaveral) is that thermal instability will be lacking due to cloud cover and the time of day the surface low will be tracking across the state (before peak heating) but it is there that the southern most extent of the strong mid-upper level winds will be. On the other hand, Southeast Florida will have more heating of the day with less cloud cover during peak heating hours (and delayed boundary passage) but no mid-upper level winds at play. So at this time, if there is going to be thunder I think it would be from near Sebastian toward Vero initially with a secondary option from near Boyton Beach to Miami Metro mid-late afternoon as the boundary crosses that area. My best guess though is that thunder near there would occur offshore over the Gulf stream where another surface low could form around sunset. Another problem for South Florida for thunder chances is that the extent of warm air over-running in the mid-levels looks like it will be more pronounced ( essentially acting as a cap)...with very low lapse rates (non-conducive for rising air currents other than at the lowest atmospheric levels).

FRIDAY: On Friday the mid-upper level trough axis' will have yet to clear Central and South Florida, lagging by a good 24-30 hours from that of the surface front. Continued moist mid level flow could keep Central and to some degree South Florida in cloud cover with a chance of a spit of rain, but at this time it looks like it will be mainly mid-level, non rain producing cloud cover. NE Coastal Florida might have to contend with a little bit of back-washing effect though, and seems to be the most likely scapegoat for a rain excuse from Ormond Beach to Jax, as does the Keys.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: This is where the NAM and GFS greatly diverge in regards to Central Florida, namely from North/Central Brevard County to South Tampa Bay and south. How often has Central Florida Proper been the "Great Divide" these past couple of weather events?! My heavens.

But they do agree that for the most part rain chances go to nil on Saturday with the 5000 ft trough axis having cleared. The 700mb trough (10,000ft level) timing will be critical in regard to how much sun we will see on Saturday. Its very touch and go from once again for Central Proper (Tampa Bay to Canaveral). Either the clouds clear there early morning or continue once again for another day. (in other words, Saturday could be sunny in this area or totally cloudy). Further north looks okay, but either way South Florida is still in the clouds.

SUNDAY: Much cooler air make its presence known Sunday morning-Tuesday morning under sunny skies.

BEYOND A COOL MONDAY MORNING: Regionally, this is the end of the storm system / frontal boundary bombardment for a long time over Florida, at least in regards to rain making fronts. A much more zonal flow is already developing as I write. One which tracks storms from west to east at a much more northern latitude. That is why this series of troughs at various levels will take so long to clear Florida between Thursday morning through Saturday afternoon. But once we get to Sunday it looks like we will be toying with where the location of high pressure (s) will be.

For starters, it appears it will be over the Gulf of Mexico, with a surge in high pressure from the SW (Mexico) by mid week next week which merges with the Atlantic High by next weekend. Looks like there will some days with high pressure at the surface and mid-level smack dab over Florida heading through this time next week with light, squirrelly wind directions at times, often marine influenced along A1A north of Ft Pierce. Surface reflection of any fronts to go through after Saturday appear will be more of a 'back-door' variety with little impact other than to make the temperature a little cooler than what will otherwise be a running status quo of inland lows in the mid-upper 40s and highs teasing 70-74F (after Monday). Coastal lows a bit warmer and warmer all time periods south of Ft Pierce to Naples. In essence, temperatures will run to just below normal through Tuesday, and approach normal to maybe a bit above by the weekend after this approaching one.

Near Record Warmth, Windy - Possible Strong Storm Central Late This Afternoon

Images: 1) Current quick and dirty surface front positions overlaid with colorized temperatures depictions. Could be heading toward tying or breaking some record high temps for the date today...again! (2) Latest SPC outlook for today showing the area which I''m in full agreement with for possible strong storms, mainly along an east bound broken line of showers and some storms from 3pm -7pm (3) Latest satellite image (4) Current radar as of 1:50pm

CURRENT: Boundary that was over South Florida yesterday began go move north at 8AM rapidly and cleared Brevard County to the north around noon time. It has run into a wedge of very cool high pressure extending south from the Appalachians into North Florida and is unlikely to get any further north.

Warm and windy this afternoon. Last hour the warmest reporting locations were West Palm Beach at 86F and Melbourne at 85F with SW winds gusting to just over 30mph. However, gusts were approaching 40mph in response to a 925mb speed max just pushing on shore. These winds could spread east and across the zone shown in the second image across Central Florida later this afternoon, accompanied by mid level winds of up to 50 mph in a narrow sliver along the Beach Line.

Expect we could see those temperatures noted above to go up at least another two degrees during the next hour or so since we haven't quite reached peak heating yet, which means Melbourne could well be on the way to breaking the record high temperature for the date, or tying it. Not so sure about West Palm Beach though.

Meanwhile we see a weak surface low west of Tampa and another well east of St. Augustine. The RUC model analyzed a low right over Central Florida, but believe that is more of a thermally induced 'mess-up' and not real.

TODAY-TONIGHT: Continued very warm and breezy through the remainder of the afternoon with plentiful sunshine. Awesome! The surface low in the Gulf will begin to kick ENE later this afternoon and take a trek roughly from North Tampa Bay to just south of Daytona Beach in a weakened state (after having crossed the cooler Gulf Shelf waters away from the warmer Loop Current). Looks like areas south of the warm front will remain dry until the low pressure begins to punch east toward the Florida west coast in response to the mid-level trough which is still further west of the surface features, whereas the area north of the warm front will continue in the rains all day into tonight other than over toward the east side of the state where upper level support is lacking early this afternoon and it is merely cloudy.

In the 3-4pm time frame the low begins to move east, weakens a bit away from the Loop Current. Additionally, the line of convection current shown (and there is a lot of lightning out there too in activity not been shown in the radar image further to the SSW) will move east. The line of showers and possible thunder storms will progress eastward through the last afternoon and appears will be near and clearing the east side of the state between 5:00pm - 8:00pm, but the activity is just starting to enter East Central Florida as I type.

Wouldn't be surprised to hear a severe thunderstorm warning or even a few with the line (in fact, a tornado warning was just issued for far NW Volusia County). That comes a bit of a surprise.

The main impact from those areas that get the rain will be strong wind gusts in and just prior to onset of rain of 40-55mph, especially toward the east 1/2 of the state for North 1/2 of Osceola County, Orange County, Seminole County, Southern Lake County , the North 1/3 of Brevard County and all of Volusia County as the convective band moves through, but do note the outlined area in the graphic above pointed out by the Storm Prediction Center (which matches closed with my line of thinking). This is a worst case scenario, as I am considering just how long the line will hold out the further east it gets. We could end up with the southern extent of any showers at all just brushing Port Canaveral with no activity other than rain spatter further south of 520.

But at time, rain showers, and even some thunder looks remotely possible as far south as Vero Beach on the east side and all of Osceola County.

TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY: Front clears the states with possible some lingering rain showers until about 3AM. Cooler and very pleasant through Wednesday with lows in the mid-upper 40s north to upper 40s lower 50s further south and highs in the 60s to low 70s further south.

Dreary Central But Much Nicer South Florida Today

Images: (1)Haven't posted an image like this before. This is data from one of the 915Mhz Profilers at KSC which provide the wind profile in the lower levels of the atmosphere. It shows the winds over a length of time in the lower levels. We can see the northerly winds from the surface right up to about 925mb, conveniently a standard height used as guidance in various models like the NAM and GFS. They both show the SW-WSW winds at that level as can be actually observed with this information with northerly component winds in a shallow layer in the bottom 2000 ft or so; (2) Additionally in the second image is the sounding from KSC showing the same thing. The sounding also shows a nearly saturated atmosphere from the surface to about 10,000 ft (or around 700mb). We can see the very shallow layer near the ground of northerly winds over-run by the increasingly stronger WSW winds above. (3) Shows the morning temperature regime with the approximate location of the stationary boundary at the surface very close to Ft. Pierce, bisecting the Lake with the warmest temperatures south of the boundary. (4) Satellite image shows no shortage of cloud cover streaming from SW (to WSW) from the Gulf and across the state (5) A recent sampling of current radar with a surface boundary overlay sketched in.

TODAY: Little really to write about as what we see now as far as boundaries and satellite imagery will remain relatively status quo (stationary in regards to boundary movement) throughout the day. The best chance of rain today will be further north as we see is currently (and has been) occurring since very early morning. The folks south of I-4 will more than likely be out of the rain the majority of the time, and even more so along and south of the Beach Line, dwindling to non-existent toward South Brevard.

In the clearing zone NW of the clouds in the west 1/2 of the Florida Panhandle this morning it was below freezing! Brrr...But, under the clouds and some rain showers the temperatures remain in the low-mid 60s, upper 60s to lower 70s further south close to the boundary (50s further north).

South of the boundary this afternoon upper 70s and low 80s especially on the east side of the state around Miami metro toward West Palm Beach where a mid 80 or two might could occur. It is also possible that with some day time heating and ample low level moisture in place over South Florida that abundant puffy stratocumulus clouds will be in place as the areas of fog down there this morning burn off and transition to that a new state of existence. Regardless, it will be warm down there and partly to mostly cloudy from time to time close to the boundary and north of it. Some showers in the same warm zone can't be totally discounted as portrayed by one of the models (especially close to the surface boundary), but they would be very low topped and relatively brief if they manage to manifest.

TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY: Mid level trough (the same one that might affect the 4th Quarter of the Super Bowl game tonight with a very low threat of some snow flurries) grinds through the Deep South overnight and across North Florida Monday. In precedence, the surface boundary over South Florida will buckle northward through South Central to Central Florida after midnight through 9AM Monday. There could be some low and mid-level moisture covergence along the north bound leading edge as this process ensues which would up the rain chance from 2am - 7am, mostly through Central and North Central Florida as the boundary moves north through early morning with clearing south of the boundary.

MONDAY LATE MORNING - LATE AFTERNOON: No change South Florida from today so not much to elaborate on there although they should have less clouds than today without the pesky boundary around. Immediate Central to North Central and North is where all the 'action' is in regards to clouds and rain on Monday, as well as where the cut off gradient of 'lots of rain to barely any' will exist.

As mentioned yesterday, the NAM model was showing the greatest extent of rain fall potential to be along and north of I-4, and I was hedging toward the idea at the time. Later various model trends are supporting that notion, and as such I'm inclined to remove any rain chance at all south of a line running from Melbourne to Ft Myers where much warmer afternoon high temperatures will reside under generally a partly cloudy sky.

It currently appears that the boundary will get about as far north as the Volusia / Brevard County line or a bit further north than that on the east coast and be aligned with the prevalent upper level flow toward South of Tampa Bay (or very close to I-4) that is shown by the morning sounding from KSC in the image above.

Rain chances tomorrow will be highest where they are today, but to a much greater extent in regards to EASILY measurable amounts as the mid-level trough that will be crosses Texas tonight crosses north Florida and strong low-mid level winds round the base of the trough as it does so which confront/ interact with the strong high pressure to the east of South Florida that has been referred to in numerous previous postings.

The Beach line (east side of the state) seems to be the make or break point of where any rain at all could fall, but the predominant mode there will be rain free and much warmer than today until very late in the afternoon (but not as warm as yesterday). Still can't discount a shower entirely though, and any minor undulation in current model depictions will have a significant impact for folks in the critical area which will run along a line from just south of Tampa Bay to Titusville should those depictions sink just 30 miles further south.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING: The mid-level trough and associated trough will meet up with the stationary boundary across North Central Florida as it continues to move off the SE U.S. coast. The ensemble forms a cold front and swipes through all but perhaps far South East Florida by sunrise Tuesday. Rain chances as a result go up after dark Monday night through the pre-dawn hours for all of the south half of the state, but to lesser degree the further south one goes. There might be an additional spoke of moisture rotating around the developing low pressure system as it makes its exit further away from the state to create a small secondary rain chance or additional clouds early for East Central portions of the state, but all in all by 9am the front will have cleared entirely and rapid cloud dismisal will follow.

TEMPERATURES: It will be cooler on Tuesday every where once all is said and done in the wake of the cold front, essentially by 10-15 degrees in regards to daytime afternoon high temperatures as well as morning lows heading into Wednesday morning, less so South Florida.

WEDNESDAY: Pleasant with modify temperatures as high pressure passes east of the state to the north and an onshore flow regime ensues. Coolest temperatures along A1A close to the ocean waters with a partly cloudy sky. Close to seasonal, but perhaps a bit below normal for this time of year inland and west side.

OVER NIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY: Next system, which is now about to exit the Bay of Alaska will drop SSE through the Rockies during the course of the week upping snow chances for cities like Denver and Salt lake City, will be approaching Florida by later in the week with details on this next system to come in future posts.

Still doesn't look all so bad for that system either in regards to low temperatures; as it stands now it appears the main energy and subsequent surface high pressure with that system (like the one to occur on Monday/Tuesday...as well as with the previous two before that) will pass to the north of Central Florida which puts the west side of the state in the coldest air once the system has cleared. No freezing temperatures foreseen for South Central or South Florida for starters.

BEYOND NEXT FRIDAY: After another very cool spell next weekend, the gravy train of low pressure systems which has been the predominant mode the past two weeks transitions to one of high pressure areas separated by mostly dry, weak cold front passages as the flow becomes more zonal and systems in general track further to the north of Florida and Texas.

Melbourne, Florida Reaches 85F Degrees Today

Images: (1) The thermometer on my porch and the 2pm colorized temperature depiction for Florida with surface fronts analyzed. At this time Patrick AFB was 83F, my porch read 84F, and Melbourne was 85F (2) But all great things eventually come to an end as we can see the clouds on the approach associated with a surface cold front and strong mid-upper levels winds streaming from SW to the NE ...(3)..those winds can be seen in this image of the averaged winds aloft combined with atmospheric moisture content (note the correlation of the blue colors (most moist)with the clouds)

TODAY: Late post today, as it is now 2:30pm. As we can see, a weak frontal boundary is being led by a weak pre-frontal trough by the dashed blue line. The surface image is a little behind in the timing with the satellite image which was saved most recently. Rain showers as I type are right along I-4 from near Daytona and through the Orlando area on the pre-frontal boundary which just barely leads the cold front proper, with a renegade very light shower or two in Palm Beach County. There was a little kink in the front right over Tampa Bay which I'd guess is some sort of mesoscale affect from the Bay waters, so they might see more rain than their current line of thinking there. Temperatures ahead of the front are in the upper 70s and low 80s, with a few spots in the mid-80s along the east coast in the absence of any sea breeze today as SW-SSW winds prevail ahead of the front and blow across the greatest expanse of warmed land before reaching the east side of the state. Last I looked it was just about 84F on the porch, while Tampa was 64F with light rain.

The front will continue east but likely begin to slow down after peak heating. At this hour it seems to be feeding off the warm air mass of the peninsula and being shoved east ward on its southern extent by cool high pressure beginning to develop over the waters of the western Gulf which will push east overnight. In any case, the boundary is on its way to the east coast, and is followed by a pretty rapid fall of temperatures into mid-60s, and obviously a lot of clouds.

Showers could fall anywhere ahead of this boundary (but very close to it) mostly north of Route 60 as the boundary moves east. These are low topped showers with no real triggers aloft. Any shower activity will produce less than 2/10" as it looks now although in a few select spots there's a shower that could be considered 'heavy', and should last no longer in any one spot more than 10-20 minutes...although suspect the boundary might get hung up very close to, if not on the east coast near Port Canaveral for an hour our two late this afternoon/early evening. But that given, without heating of the day the prospects of rain should end either way during the early evening, but it will be cooler everywhere tonight and into morning other than maybe South Florida as the remaining boundary dies with the setting sun.

SUNDAY: Hard to make heads or tails of just exactly where the surface front will be located by this time tomorrow. Surface prognosis paints it to be somewhere close to Lake Okeechobee, and maybe a bit north of there. But if this ends up like last time, that was where the previous front was to end up, but instead it ended up just barely clearing Brevard County. Think this one will though to at least as far south as Ft. Pierce. In any case, the supporting troughs aloft never got this far and actually are taking off to the northeast and out of the picture as I type, so its definitely not going to be a clean frontal passage other than below 2000 Ft (the height of a 20 story building).

Do believe tomorrow will be cool and cloudy for Central, and maybe some light rain with temperatures mainly in the mid 50s - 60s but much warmer South Florida. Clouds could be an issue just about anywhere in the state in varying degrees, but most likely right across dead Central. Light wind on Sunday.

MONDAY: Front will translate a bit further north from where ever it will have ended up by Monday morning and now appears will be located very close to somewhere between I-4 and the Beach Line, with I-4 preferred on this post. Looks like an all day rain event setting up for those under and north of the boundary, with a sharp decrease in rain chances to zero chance 50-75 miles south of the boundary. That means all of South Florida is in the clear either way, but somewhere along and within the bounds noted in the sentences above northward toward I-10 will be in the murk all day.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Highlighting this time frame for a specific reason. Sometime around noon time it looks like the mid-level support to put some wheels in motion will be passing overhead as the base of a new mid-level trough axis that will have been approaching from the northwest Plains states which will be aligned NNW/SSE crosses Alabama and Georgia as it crosses Central Florida (and over the surface front). The support will come in the form of winds possibly as strong as 50mph just over head at 2000ft or stronger higher up as they round the base of the trough and meet the blocking ridge that has persisted to our east over Cuba/Bahamas/SW Atlantic since the 'Day of The Blizzards' began.

Just exactly what the net affect will be, if any is a bit difficult to determine, but the chance of thunder shouldn't be entirely discounted, especially between the hours of noon- 6pm Monday (sooner near Tampa Bay spreading east with time) from Vero Beach north to Ormond Beach (on the east coast) and across the state to the west. At this point this is only a precautionary note in the mind's eye when we consider that any thunder producing updrafts that can develop could transport those strong winds not far over head to the ground.

In other words, this would equate to very strong wind gusts in thunder storms or even a heavy rain shower. Definitely not set in stone at this time while typing, but the possibility appears will be real given the information placed in front of me early this afternoon.

It is interesting that MAYBE the folks south of I-4 and the Beach Line east of Orlando might not see any rain at all until after 1pm while folks just a 30-45minutes drive to the north will have been getting wet all morning. It is also interesting that temperatures per the model data are generous with 70s for high temperatures on Monday right on the east coast of Central Florida (Brevard specifically and south along the coast) just south of the boundary...this would imply that there wouldn't be much cloud cover there either. There is a very sharp temperature gradient cutting Brevard County in half per the NAM model. Hopefully, you get the picture here. Somewhere across Central Florida is going to be very touch and go, while others are in the muck all day, and others further South of Route 60 will see no rain at all ever. Most assured Lake Okeechobee and South until later in the day.

IN ANY CASE: Tuesday will dawn like a new day once we've washed our hands of Monday's dirty dishes. Light NW wind and significantly cleared skies with highs in the mid-60s and warmer south. No weather issues through sunrise Thursday, with temperatures cooler everywhere, even South Florida, from what we've been feeling the past few days.

IS A BIG BAD COLD SPELL COMING? The news keeps getting better, yes it still looks like a cold one is coming sometime around Friday ...but a statewide freeze is no longer a concern as it was 2 days ago, for almost anyone in the state. The worse I'm seeing is a morning of mid-upper 30s north of I-4 with mid-upper 40s at that same time east of a line from North Brevard southwest to Naples. The trend has been getting warmer and warmer, but I do think this final front will be the end of one synoptic scale weather pattern for the U.S. and the beginning of a more zonal flow across the eastern 2/3 of the country with the coldest of air well to the north (once we warm back up again, which will be quickly)...this means an end to the cold for the Deep South and Texas and warmer across the Southern Plains and Mid Atlantic region.

Temperature Extremes and Wildfire Awareness Day for Florida

Images: (1) General location of boundary across Central Florida at 8AM. This image also shows a surface low in the East Central Gulf of Mexico, and of equal importance(s) a weak developing low off the southeast Georgia coast which is a northern extension of the inverted trough that was stretched just off shore and parallel to the Gulf Stream yesterday. Also note a wedge of high pressure nosing down the lee of the Southern Appalachians into Northeast Florida. Not drawn in is another more pronounced slightly elevated warm front across portions of the Deep South which is responsible for very wet weather further north. (4) Satellite image shows streamer bands of cirrus moving from west to east across Florida with a deeper concentration of low or mid-level clouds just north of the boundary bisecting the state.

RECAP: Widespread and some very dense fog across a good portion of the state this morning is breaking up as I type, and will be likely all but gone by the time this post is completed. At one hour, Kissimmee was down to a visibility of zero, with Orlando International down to 1/16 of a mile, but the fog advisories have since then been lifted.

TODAY: Surface low over the Gulf will slowly move NNE today, but I believe that a more swift progress will be halted by a wedge of cool high pressure to the NE of its location as shown in the images above. As that low lifts north, the surface boundary across the peninsula does likewise to a small degree. Looks like the surface boundary might get hung up very close to or just north of Daytona Beach this afternoon before making better progress just after sunset toward just south of Jacksonville.

Most of Central Florida this afternoon will experience a southerly to southeast wind this afternoon south of the boundary and a pleasant afternoon with mainly high cirrus clouds passing overhead. The immediate coast of Brevard will be a bit cooler due to the onshore wind component north of Sebastian Inlet to Daytona. Whoever is north of the boundary on the east coast will be caught in a conundrum of being influenced by the cool wedge of high pressure combined with being on the backside of the inverted trough just offshore the coast as well as being under the clouds, as was felt over the NE portion of coastal Brevard yesterday. Just exactly where the influence will be greatest will be revealed in the 1-3pm time frame but the area very close to Ormond Beach and north looks like they will get 'wedgied' until sunset.

Otherwise, rain free today with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s (lower 70s along A1A south of the boundary). Maybe the Ft. Myers area can eke out another 84F degrees like was observed one hour there yesterday.

SATURDAY: Could see some more fog again overnight especially if we have less high clouds overnight which appears will be the case. Otherwise, no weather impacts with lows in the low-mid 60s. Winds become light to solid from the SSW tomorrow, so East Central Florida all the way up to Daytona will feel the warmth most notably that all of South Florida has felt all along. Ft Myers won't be as warm tomorrow due to a Gulf Coast waters influence.

As for that low in the Gulf. Looks like it will become absorbed/diffuse over the Florida Panhandle early in the day Saturday with its trailing cool front pushing through the eastern Panhandle and into North Central portions late in the afternoon with some showers accompanying it, but other than that area approaching Gainesville all of Central and South remain again rain free. So far, Saturday looks stellar other than some clouds through late afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: Here's about where I'll cut off today's post due to high uncertainty. Yes, I could simply reverberate what the models are showing as is done on TV (actually, I have NO idea what they show on "TV" on our news programs). So if you want to, watch The Weather Channel or worse (FOX Channel 3 out of Orlando)...which showed a cold front crossing Miami yesterday evening when I saw them. I will paint out a quick-n-dirty scenario though as portrayed by the morning NAM model combined with last night's GFS run sprinkled with some of the ECMWF (the morning runs are not available from my resources yet) for kicks.

So, based on the past few runs of these models, it looks like the cool front of Saturday will be very close to diagonally bisecting the state from NE to SW by just after sunset Saturday. As such, cloudiness is more assured as is a small rain chance, as far south as Brevard County over toward Sarasota, but South Florida remains unfazed. From this point out my mental flags go up.

But it gets very tricky beyond Saturday night. Just like this last boundary, it will be a very very shallow surface boundary passage (supposedly) only clearly evident in the lowest 2000ft (at most) of the atmosphere accompanied by a light NW wind, yet just above the ground the flow remains ever present from the SW event behind the boundary. Rain chances clear out beyond sunrise Sunday but will the clouds?

Additionally, the surface front is shown to clear Miami or comes close to give that area a passing blow before altogether either being pulled out to the northeast or being completely absorbed into non-existence by our saving grace this past week, strong high pressure over the eastern Bahamas and the SW Atlantic...COMBINED with high pressure building east across the eastern Gulf behind the boundary...with that said, we see that at the lowest levels we end up with high pressure directly over the peninsula on Sunday and an end to the unusually warm temperatures.

It seems apparent to me that this would be the precursor of a big warm air OVER-running event, at least in regard to cloud cover (which would also keep afternoon high temperatures lower than what will be felt today and tomorrow, and have been felt all along over South Florida). Guidance indicates enhanced cloud cover leading into Sunday afternoon and all day Monday. It looks like the Loop Current waters are either leading the NAM model astray, of if its right on somewhere across Central Florida on Monday will end up with an all day light rain event, or just a lot of clouds. It all gets very flaky actually from Saturday evening and beyond so will leave it this for now, with additional changes very very likely. In short, there's something in the time frame of late Saturday into Sunday that needs to be resolved.

Must address the Floridian's ever present concern regarding cold temperatures. We've been good to go for quite sometime (can't say the same for North Florida where its been in the upper 30s/40s, cloudy, and rainy), but how long will the comfortable temperature regime last? To provide a for instance, last nights early evening GFS was painting a statewide freeze for next Friday morning, with the Euro model a bit delayed and not quite so vigorous with the cold. The overnight GFS was less cold, seemingly falling more in line with the Euro. I mention this example because a similarly depicted scenario was initially portrayed before the Blizzard Event this week even began...showing Florida to eventually bite the big one with Jack Frost. And look what happened. Nothing. Point is, can we hold out again?! I'm not laying any money either way on this one but so far it's looking better (at least until we see what the 7AM (12z - zulu) run of the GFS reads.

Today is "Temperature Extremes and Wildfire Awareness Day" 2011 for Florida. Like previous days this week, I've copy/pasted the Information Statement composed by the National Weather Service (NWS) in Melbourne, Florida. Please read the following, consider being advised, and have a nice day. TGIF.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
737 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2011 

..FEBRUARY 4 IS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES AND WILDFIRE AWARENESS DAY 
 
ALTHOUGH A WARM CLIMATE IS ONE OF CENTRAL FLORIDA'S GREATEST NATURAL 
ASSETS...TAKEN TO THE EXTREME IT CAN BE HARMFUL AND EVEN FATAL ON 
THE HOTTEST DAYS IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY 
OF SUMMER CAN COMBINE TO CAUSE HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES...A 
HEALTH RISK EVEN TO THOSE ACCUSTOM TO WARM WEATHER. 
 
WHEN THE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDS 115 DEGREES...LIFE THREATENING HEAT 
STROKE IS POSSIBLE. ON HOT DAYS...MAKE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER 
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS. ALTHOUGH YOU CANT FEEL IT OR SEE 
IT...ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO THE SKIN AND 
EYES...EVEN ON SEEMINGLY CLOUDY DAYS. 
 
ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION...OR SIMPLY UV RADIATION...IS STRONGEST FROM 
AROUND 10 AM TO 2 PM WHEN A HIGH SUN ANGLE OCCURS. THE BODY'S QUICK 
RESPONSE TO EXCESSIVE UV RADIATION IS SUNBURN...WHICH CAN HAPPEN IN 
ONLY A MATTER OF MINUTES. EXCESSIVE EXPOSURE HAS BEEN PROVEN TO 
CAUSE POTENTIALLY FATAL SKIN CANCERS OR CATARACTS...A FORM OF 
BLINDNESS. ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF ALL SKIN CANCER CASES ARE LINKED TO 
UV RADIATION. PUT ON SUNBLOCK BEFORE ENGAGING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. 
 
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH WINTER. 
ASIDE FROM HUMAN IMPACTS WITH COLD NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES AND 
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL...FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST CAN 
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE WIDE RANGING AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY. DURING 
COLD EVENTS...BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WHEN USING PORTABLE HEATERS...AS 
DEATHS OFTEN OCCUR AS A RESULT OF FAULTY EQUIPMENT OR FROM IMPROPER 
USE. NEVER USE CANDLES OR COOKING GRILLS TO HEAT INDOOR 
ENVIRONMENTS. A HOME FIRE MAY RESULT AS WELL AS THE LIKELIHOOD OF 
DEADLY CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. 
 
THE THREAT OF WILDFIRE IS MOST PRONOUNCED FROM MARCH THROUGH MAY 
WHEN THE DRY SEASON COINCIDES WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND WARMER 
TEMPERATURES. OCCASIONALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPARK WILDFIRES. WHEN 
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES...THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES FIRE WEATHER WATCHES AND RED FLAG 
WARNINGS WHICH INDICATE THE GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION AND SPECIFIC DAYS 
WHEN HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST. 
 
IN RECENT YEARS...WILDFIRES HAVE BECOME A LARGER THREAT TO LIFE AND 
PROPERTY DUE TO THE EXPANSION OF URBANIZED AREAS ACROSS THE STATE. 
MOST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILDFIRES ARE THE RESULT OF HUMAN CAUSED 
IGNITION. ONLY DISCARD CIGARETTES OR MATCHES IN A CLOSED CONTAINER. 
OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE CONDUCTED BY TRAINED PERSONNEL DURING 
PROPER WEATHER CONDITIONS AND USING ADEQUATE EQUIPMENT. 
 
INFORMATION REGARDING EXTREME TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER CONDITIONS 
CONDUCIVE TO THE SPREADING OF WILDFIRES CAN BE OBTAINED BY VISITING 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE WEBSITE AT 
WEATHER.GOV/MELBOURNE AND CLICKING ON THE HAZARDS IMAGE AT THE 
BOTTOM OF THE WEB PAGE.  

Tropical Storm/Hurricane Awareness Day Under a Stationary Front

Images: (1) First image shows a quick-n-dirty plot of tropical storm and hurricane tracks across Florida during the past approximately 150 years. Not exact, but you get the picture. If we included tropical depressions into the mix its almost impossible to find the state of Florida. (2) Schematic overlay of dew-point temperatures with isobars and surface wind barbs (4) At the same time, the general 700 mb level winds (3) 11am visible satellite image

RECAP: Surface front has made it to the area shown in the second image where dew-points go from green to light blue. Upon watching animation of these parameters it appears the front has got about as far south as it will get, very close to the approximation made in the post yesterday of where it would end up used as an example. The Tampa Bay area seems to be a pivot point with the front over toward Brevard waivering up and down a bit toward the south end of the county. Looks like high pressure is trying to wedge into NE Brevard behind what will eventually be an inverted trough to form off the coast later today which will meet the shoreline near West Palm Beach. If it forms nicely, we might see a pick up in ENE-NE winds near the Cape later today accompanied by more of a cool down, but this is very circumstantial and of no impact either way.

Otherwise, we can see from the forecast plot of the 700mb winds that the flow aloft is uniformly from WSW-SW, stronger across North Florida where the wind (along with cold air aloft) is acting as a mid-level lifting mechanism to generate some heavy rainshowers and even some elevated thunderstorms from time to time well north of the surface front near where the boundary around 2800Ft exists. Jacksonville had thunder last hour while the temperatures were in the upper 40s.

Overnight, that region was issued a severe thunderstorm warning, and severe sized hail of 3/4" was reported near Newberry (Alachua County)...falling for 2 minutes.

TODAY: Stationary front across Central Florida late this morning, and there it will stay (given that it is 'stationary' after all) through today and tonight until near sunrise Friday. This is a very, very shallow boundary and only extends a thousand or so feet upward. The front around 2800 ft is further north where the rain showers have been ongoing since sunrise as we can see by the more dense coverage of clouds across North Florida. In essence, the surface boundary is little more than one huge outflow boundary from the continental cold air mass which encompassed much of the country the past 48 hours which is undercutting all the mid and upper level features. There are no dynamics with this boundary, so expect that today we'll see abundant high and some mid level clouds from time to time carried by the prevalent upper level winds but little more.

Warm over all of South Florida with upper 70s to near 80F or so down there (maybe even upper mid 80s in small area), with temperatures in the boundary zone itself anywhere from the low to mid 60s (NE coast of Central) to low to mid 70s. Cooler further north toward extreme North Brevard toward Ormond Beach and much cooler to almost cold across the Panhandle. Not looking for any rain other than where it currently exists now. In fact, as I type the temperature near the KSC land strip is in the low 60s, whereas at Port Canaveral it's almost 70F. Melbourne is 75F and Ormond Beach is 59F.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY: The surface boundary will lift north right around sunrise with a SSE -S wind to follow by late morning. Temperatures warmer most notably where the front is at today and to the north, whereas South Florida remains status quo in the temperature category since the front will have never been that far south to begin with. No rain that I can tell.

SATURDAY: Weak surface low developing NW of the Yucatan Peninsula looks like it will cross the Panhandle near Tallahassee with a trailing cold front to enter the Central and Southern Peninsula late in the day into the evening. I'm taking thunderstorm chances out from what looked like a previous meager chance in the first place the past two days. But still, clouds could be an issue. Even rain chances look weak, but not entirely discountable just yet (but I'm tempted). I'm hedging toward preferentially opting on more sun than clouds this day for the afternoon. Either way, no rain except as noted above.

SUNDAY: Cooler most everywhere, but not by much, 5F degrees or so, but continued cooler north Florida once the low tracks across the Panhandle and pulls the front through. I'm going optimistic for the majority of the day with partly cloudy skies.

Beyond Sunday afternoon. Not waiting for the latest GFS to come out, but will say that at this time a 'zone' could be set up "somewhere" across Central Florida for rapidly deteriorating sky conditions with rain chances entering the picture after dark through Monday. Still many many more model runs to go before then, so not wasting time to elaborate on a scenario that is unlikely to unfold as is being currently portrayed, or if it does the location of it will change.

BEYOND SUNDAY: Looks at this time that the strong high pressure at the surface upward through aloft over a part of Cuba into the SW Atlantic might finally grow weary of fighting continued attempts by mid-upper level systems trying to erode it from the west and northwest. It's been South and Central Florida's saving grace for quite some time. All good things come to end at some point, which means we could be in for a cool down sometime later Monday into Tuesday, with reinforcements through the end of the week next week. So far, it doesn't look like we'll see anything unusual though which is a relief as far as the temperature goes. So in that regard, we're good to go through Monday.

As a part of Severe Weather Awareness Week 2011 in Florida, today is Hurricane (Tropical System) and Flooding Awareness Day. The following is the information distributed through the National Weather Service in Melbourne in a Public Information Statement this morning. Note that this states "Hurricane" awareness, but the emphasis in regards to heavy rain is on a Hurricane turned Tropical Storm. Also, tornadoes associated with Hurricanes can occur well away from a hurricane or 'storm' as was proven with Hurricane Agnes in 1973 which made landfall in the Panhandle, but generated strong tornadoes over the peninsula (Merritt Island/Cape Canaveral to name two spots) and the Keys:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
THU FEB 3 2011  
  
..FEBRUARY 3 IS HURRICANE AND FLOODING AWARENESS DAY 
 
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ESCAPED SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS FROM HURRICANES IN 
2010. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE IMPACTS FROM THE WIDESPREAD HISTORICAL 
FLOODING CAUSED BY TROPICAL STORM FAY IN AUGUST 2008 SERVES AS A 
STARK REMINDER THAT FRESH WATER FLOODING FROM TROPICAL STORMS CAN 
PRODUCE DEVASTATION ON AN EQUAL OR GREATER SCALE THAN FROM 
HURRICANES. 
 
ON AVERAGE...A HURRICANE WILL PASS WITHIN 65 MILES OF THE EAST 
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EVERY 6 TO 10 YEARS. WHILE HURRICANE STRIKES 
ARE NOT ALWAYS A YEARLY OCCURRENCE...EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE 
SIGNIFICANTLY THREATENED BY A HURRICANE A FEW TIMES EACH DECADE. 
REGARDLESS OF THE SHORT OR LONG TERM OUTLOOK...CENTRAL FLORIDIANS 
NEED TO BE PREPARED EVERY YEAR. AS FAY ILLUSTRATED...IT ONLY TAKES 
THE EFFECTS FROM ONE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE 
AREA. 
 
NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN TO PREPARE FOR THE 2011 HURRICANE SEASON. 
DEVELOP A HURRICANE PLAN AND HAVE IT IN PLACE BEFORE A STORM 
THREATENS. KNOW IF YOU LIVE IN A HURRICANE EVACUATION ZONE OR A 
FEDERAL FLOOD ZONE. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE YOUR HURRICANE KIT STOCKED 
WITH THE SUPPLIES SUCH AS SUCH AS BOTTLED WATER...CANNED FOODS AND 
BATTERIES BEFORE THE START OF EACH SEASON. CONSIDER BUYING AND 
INSTALLING HURRICANE SHUTTERS. WHEN A STORM THREATENS...PURCHASE GAS 
AND TAKE OUT EXTRA CASH SINCE NEITHER MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR SEVERAL 
DAYS FOLLOWING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLAN TO BUY ENOUGH PROVISIONS TO 
LAST A MINIMUM OF THREE TO FIVE DAYS FOR EACH MEMBER OF YOUR 
HOUSEHOLD. 
 
REMEMBER A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM IS MORE THAN JUST WIND. 
TROPICAL CYCLONES BRING MULTIPLE HAZARDS...INCLUDING STORM SURGE... 
POUNDING SURF...FRESH WATER FLOODING AND TORNADOES. 
HISTORICALLY...WATER CAUSES MOST OF THE DEATHS IN HURRICANES. ABOUT 
90 PERCENT OF ALL HURRICANE RELATED DEATHS OCCUR FROM 
DROWNING...RESULTING FROM STORM SURGE OR FRESH WATER FLOODING. WHILE 
STORM SURGE IS NOT PARTICULARLY EXTREME ALONG THE CENTRAL FLORIDA 
ATLANTIC COAST...EROSION FREQUENTLY CAUSES BREACHES IN THE DUNE LINE 
AND SEVERE LOSS OF BEACH AND SHORELINE PROPERTY. BARRIER ISLAND 
RESIDENTS SHOULD HEED ADVICE FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND EVACUATE WHEN 
A HURRICANE THREATENS. PEOPLE ARE ALSO URGED TO BE EXTREMELY 
CAUTIOUS DURING THE STORMS AFTERMATH. PERSONS WHO SURVIVE THE 
INITIAL PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAVE DIED AS A RESULT OF A 
NUMBER OF FACTORS...INCLUDING CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING FROM 
GENERATORS...ELECTROCUTION FROM DOWNED WIRES...SEVERE INJURIES 
DURING DEBRIS REMOVAL AND MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS. EXTREME CARE MUST 
BE USED WHEN USING GENERATORS. MAKE SURE TO RUN GENERATORS IN AN 
OPEN OUTDOOR LOCATION...AND NEVER IN AN ENCLOSED AREA. 
 
AS FAY CLEARLY SHOWED...THE FLAT TERRAIN OF THE AREA LENDS ITSELF TO 
WIDESPREAD INUNDATION OF POORLY DRAINED AND LOW LYING AREAS DURING 
HEAVY RAIN EVENTS...RATHER THAN THE FLASH FLOODING THAT OCCURS IN 
OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. IT CAN ALSO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT LONGER 
LASTING IMPACTS. WATER CAN ENTER HOMES AND OTHER STRUCTURES...AS 
WELL AS MAKE DRIVING EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS DUE TO FLOODED ROADS WHICH 
CAN SOMETIMES OBSCURE CANALS. THIS FLOODING CAN LAST FOR DAYS...AND 
IN AREAS NEAR THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER...THE FLOODING CAN PERSIST FOR 
WEEKS. IF WATER IS COVERING A ROADWAY...DO NOT ASSUME THAT YOU CAN 
DRIVE THROUGH IT. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. 
 
FORTUNATELY...YOU CAN PLAN WELL IN ADVANCE FOR FLOODS. THE BEST 
ADVICE IS TO HAVE FLOOD INSURANCE...SEPARATE FROM YOUR HOMEOWNERS 
INSURANCE. KNOW IF YOU LIVE IN AN AREA THAT FLOODS FREQUENTLY FROM 
HEAVY RAINS...BUT REMEMBER THAT YOU DONT NEED TO BE IN A FLOOD ZONE 
TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING. 
 
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO BEFORE...DURING AND AFTER AN EVENT TO 
STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION. YOU CAN ALSO VISIT THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE IN MELBOURNE AT 
WEATHER.GOV/MELBOURNE WHERE THE LATEST HURRICANE AND FLOOD WATCHES 
AND WARNINGS WILL BE AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER FIVE DAY TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

"Snowzilla", Groundhog's, and Florida Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Awareness Day

Images: (1) shows the current location of what remains way down south of the dreaded 'Snowzilla Beast' that impacted over 1/3 of the country the past 36 hours or so. The storm is exiting Maine now with the front delineating the leading edge of the cold air in its wake which is now encompassing much of the country east of the Rockies. The further east and south the front gets into Florida the less the boundary becomes discernible (2) latest satellite image shows a little correlation between the frontal boundary position and the mid-upper level clouds showing up on satellite imagery as the upper level support is fully non-existant over the Florida Peninsula and shows mostly in mid-level clouds along the boundary. [ the first image is a severe thunderstorm warned storm taken from the parking lot of Space Station Processing Facility (SSPF) at the Kennedy Space Center]

TODAY IS TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AWARENESS DAY 2011 FOR FLORIDA. Information follows at the bottom of this post and is also available at the provided link: http://www.floridadisaster.org/kids/index2.htm

TODAY: Only a few tweaks to yesterday's (and the day before that one's) post, but nothing significant. High pressure from the surface through the mid-upper levels continues to reign supreme over Cuba, the eastern Bahamas and the SW Atlantic Ocean. As such, "Snowzilla of the Plains" is making the last of its primary focus known over Maine and cannot penetrate the Florida Peninsula in a very convincing manner, although another spoke of the storm continues to plague parts of the Ohio Valley with snow as it rotates around the Mother Storm. Behind the front shown in the first image overrunning warm mid-level air over parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama has already begun with an icy/rain mix type precipitation where cold air was initially in place overnight since noon yesterday behind the front's initial south and eastward surge.

Locally, the front will ooze into Central Florida into the early evening with abundant streams of cirrostratus/cirrus clouds in much the same location as shown in the satellite image above. As you can see, much of South Florida and much of South Central is free of these clouds. The clouds aren't having too much of a negative impact on high temperatures this afternoon, but it would be warmer Central/North Central without them. We'll be looking at upper 70s/low 80s EXCEPT along A1A from near Sebastian Inlet to Port Canaveral where a light seabreeze component has developed the past hour, low 70s in those spots under the high clouds. No issues South Florida except some overnight low clouds/ fog in some spots. Otherwise, warm.

Rain chances today/tonight: There was a little area over the Loop Current this morning that persisted for quite sometime, but has lately dwindled...that activity is largely responsible for the high cloud streamers across Central this afternoon. Those might begin to pull out after 4:30pm or so. Meanwhile, there are some elements in place per the morning sounding, latest Local Data Integration System output, latest surface observations, and model guidance to justify a chance of a rain shower or even thunder from 4:00pm through 7:00pm along and north of Route 60 north to I-4. But close to yesterday's 'designated area' I believe the best chance of any thunder will be from Port Orange in Volusia southward to Melbourne, looking SW-WSW ward from that east most bound toward Southern Orange and into Osceola County.

But be advised, I have to look very hard to justify even mentioning this chance, but with a little digging we do see an area of higher instability developing in the clearer sky over SW Florida inland to SE of Tampa near Polk County which will be advected ENE during the day, but it will take all day to reach the east side. There is just a light enough sea breeze that should anything develop and move eastward it won't have much of a problem penetrating to the east and be perhaps enhanced just west of US1 especially since all the minor attributing factors which would support a storm will come together right as the surface frontal boundary shown in the image above is knocking along the Beachline Corridor.

But chances of this are low, just be advised that the chance of some rain or a storm (s) COULD manifest. Given it's only noon time now a lot could change between now and then...but not much. If anything, I expect to see the possibility go down further, namely because this will all occur in the absence of any trigger to get a storm going in the first place other than the front itself. If interested, keep your eyes pealed toward the WSW -SW later this afternoon, and remember the Lightning Awareness Guidance dispersed in the post on Monday.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY: Looks like our front will finally be fully into Central Florida and there it stays from around midnight tonight through early-mid morning Friday. The only change from two previous posts now is that it may not sink much further south than a Melbourne toward Kenansville line. It will be a very diffuse and shallow boundary with no change in the mid-upper levels at all. So shallow that the ENE wind behind the boundary might only be detectable in the closest 2-3000 feet from the ground with the ever present WSW winds prevailing above that level throughout its visit to Central Florida.

Either way, it's a matter of hen pecking a rather "dead" issue as far as fronts goes. Cooler on Thursday with lows and highs in the 60s behind the boundary (colder further north) and much warmer South. Some light rain here and there, but of little significance. It looks like Brevard (for example) might be perfectly bisected by the boundary with highs in mid-upper 60s North half while South Brevard could be in the mid-upper 70s. These conditions will be similar the whole way to the west across the state. Coldest spot anywhere Central will be along A1A behind (north of) the boundary..which means it might be only in the low-mid 60s in Cape Canaveral tomorrow while Melbourne is in the low 70s if not warmer. But clouds will be an issue except South Florida. In essence, best to be SOUTH of the boundary wherever that might be.

FRIDAY MORNING: Developing System in the South Central Gulf as another upper level system cuts across Texas lifts the boundary back north, warmer everywhere (mostly where it HAD BEEN cooler)...South Florida stays the same. Rain chance looks non-existent beyond mid morning but there could be plenty of clouds just about anywhere, potentially clearing by mid afternoon.

Due to the amount of typing I've already generated today, will refrain from going into the more extended time frame as it would be equally wordy. Lots of ups and downs, but no big impacts foreseen.

But for a super quick and dirty, we'll continue with no big temperature changes of recent days (other than Thursday north of the boundary wherever it ends up). Best chance of rain still looks like Saturday once the boundary lifts back north some time and another moves in, and again on Monday as we go through yet again another scenario like what was described above. The Monday / Tuesday time frame looks much more dynamic that what is going on today through Sunday.

On the other hand, the nicest day of all appears will be Sunday from sunrise to set (although not so sure about South Florida). Sunday might be their turn for the crummy overcast conditions. One last item of interest...could be chilly around Wednesday (but that is a week from now and a lot can change)...but it sure looks definite at this point in time....and unfortunately, convincing.

..FEBRUARY 2 IS TORNADO AND THUNDERSTORM AWARENESS DAY

TORNADOES ARE MORE FREQUENT IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN MOST PEOPLE
REALIZE. MOST OF OUR TORNADOES OCCUR DURING THE WET SEASON WHICH
TYPICALLY RUNS FROM LATE MAY THROUGH MID OCTOBER. THESE TORNADOES
ARE USUALLY SMALL AND BRIEF...RESULTING IN LITTLE PROPERTY DAMAGE
AND ARE NOT A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE.

HOWEVER...LARGE LONG TRACK AND DEADLY TORNADOES HAVE OCCURRED IN
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DRY SEASON. THE DEADLIEST TORNADO
OUTBREAK IN FLORIDA'S HISTORY OCCURRED THE NIGHT OF FEBRUARY 22 1998
WHEN SEVERAL LARGE TORNADOES SWEPT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA KILLING 42
PEOPLE...DESTROYING 700 STRUCTURES AND CAUSING AN ESTIMATED 100
MILLION DOLLARS DAMAGE. THREE OF THE TORNADOES WERE RATED EF3
INTENSITY WHILE ANOTHER 2 TORNADOES WERE RATED AS EF2. THEN...IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FEBRUARY 2 2007...A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCED TWO EF3 TORNADOES OVER NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY...KILLING 21
PEOPLE. THESE TORNADOES OCCURRED LATE AT NIGHT WHEN PEOPLE WERE
SLEEPING WHICH LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE LARGE NUMBER OF FATALITIES.

TORNADOES GIVE MUCH LESS ADVANCE WARNING THAN HURRICANES...BUT EVEN
A FEW MINUTES CAN MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIFE AND DEATH. HAVING
A NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS A CRITICAL COMPONENT OF THE WARNING SYSTEM.
HAVING A WEATHER RADIO ALERT YOU OF AN APPROACHING
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...HAS SAVED LIVES.
WHEN A TORNADO THREATENS YOUR AREA...STAY INSIDE AND GO TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM WITHOUT WINDOWS. IN A MULTI STORY BUILDING...GO TO THE
LOWEST FLOOR.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTS DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER...OR
QUARTER SIZED HAIL OR LARGER. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO
WARNINGS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE COMMUNICATED DIRECTLY FROM THE
MELBOURNE FORECAST OFFICE TO NOAA WEATHER AND ALL HAZARDS RADIO...TO
THE INTERNET AT WEATHER DOT G O V SLASH MELBOURNE...AS WELL AS TO
LOCAL MEDIA BY WAY OF THE EMERGENCY ALERT SYSTEM.