Happy Fourth! Some Rain and Thunder Could Dampen Fireworks West Side Tonight

MEOW-ZERS! The day to go All-American, 2011. Pets Included.

TODAY: So far this morning, as expected moisture from South Florida is working north and now well into most of South Central Florida. Expect that by day's end it will have reached to about the Beachline, with a nice moisture gradient in the mid-levels to be established roughly around South Central Brevard on the East Side during the late afternoon and waivering westward toward the north side of Tampa Bay.


It is along this gradient combined with a predominant easterly flow in the low levels and likely Bay and/or west coast Gulf Breezes that the strongest storms today should occur toward early evening. Above this low level generally easterly flow, there is a weak mid-level current running from the SW to NE across South Central toward Central Florida. This might be enough for a weak thunderstorm or line of showers to form along the west side of the intracoastals of Brevard. Due to weak steering in the 11AM- 1PM time frame, some weak funnel-ish type clouds could form (small funnel clouds) anywhere from under the most tall cloud lines as rain starts to fall , or shortly thereafter (assuming this can even occur at all).  Otherwise, the combined efforts of geography and winds could place a heavier rain shower toward weak thunderstorm to occur somewhere around North Merritt Island toward Port St John before 1:30pm, especially as the sea-breeze is about to move in.  Lighter showers could also occur as far north as South or Central Volusia County west of the intracoastals.

YELLOW: Where Thunder Could Most LIKELY Occur. I've probably left too much out over SW Florida, but not so sure this area will receive a sea breeze today, so left it out given the early hour of the day and therefore, greater uncertainty regarding the events that will transpire today.  But, did throw in the area from Naples and North for extra measure for late this afternoon for perhaps a briefly stronger storm.

BLUE: The area near Tampa Bay into Polk County and maybe further north toward Spring Hill might eventually squeek out a stronger storm or two (which was not included) after 8PM as the moisture gradient lifts north even further, if it does.

GREEN: Where westward moving showers South Florida could form, and nearly stationary Central Florida early in the day before the sea breeze kicks in an pretty much kills any shower activity to the east of its westward bound passage.

TUESDAY: Even though moisture will be present, trying to determine just exactly where the rains will occur is a tough call. It appears that despite this fact, rain chances might be hard to come by other than near the SE-E coast overnight and early morning and more toward the West Side almost anywhere late in the day as the atmosphere becomes  'homogenized'.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY; Moisture increases and a variety of scenarios could unfold. Either way, by most likely Thursday is when there should be an uptick in coverage over almost anywhere in the state, with some stronger storms likely on Thursday and/or Friday.

FRIDAY: Launch could still be in jeopardy, if for nothing more than the cloud types which should form with Precipitable water values over 2" present.

BEYOND: Looks like a prolonged one week of high PWAT (lots of moisture beginning Thursday). The nature of rain activity does not particularly conducive for strong storms, but rather more of the garden variety with warmer air aloft and little in boundaries. Sea breezes collisions might be hard to come by wiht a near uniform flow across the state. At time..it appears the I-4 Corridor will have the best chances of better storms as well as the northern Flanks of Lake Okeechobee and surrounding areas.

Could be a break in the rain activity going into Monday. After which point a weak frontal boundary could sink from the north toward North Central Georgia, providing better impetus for more organized storms over North and portions of North Central Florida by Friday going into the Weekend.

Possibly the Quietest Day of the Upcoming Week State Wide Today

AREAS OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS /THUNDER TODAY:
A rough sketch shows where it appears showers almost anywhere (within the yellow bounds), a thunderstorm could occur  (blue) and maybe a heavier one (in green). All activity will be generic for the most part other than that closer to the west coast and maybe one west of Lake Okeechobee

TODAY: As the title reads, and has been supposed would be the case for a few days, today appears will be about the most quiet day of the week across the state.  The last of the 'big moisture' has moved out and winds are becoming increasingly unidirectional (all from the same direction) with height. There is little to really stir up the atmosphere today, and temperatures aloft are warm but not too warm for thunderstorms to be able to form.


NORTH CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL: Nearly clear today, especially at the coast with increasing cumulus clouds toward the west coast. East winds this afternoon at 10-15mph with highs at prime beach time in the mid-80Fs at the beaches. I saw there has been stinging jelly fish out there. Beware.  Water temperatures seem to haven taken a "July Plunge", not all that unusual this time of year really, north of Vero Beach.   Yet another reason that tropical activity seldom hits Central or North Florida this time of year from the Atlantic. As such, any rain showers to form over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream have a hard time completing a trek westward to the shore line. Therefore, believe any coastal rain showers will be reserved for locations from near Ft. Pierce and South, possibly toward sunset or as the sea breeze surges forth around noon time, namely coastal portions of far South Central. 


In short, for lightning lovers today will be the dreaded supposititious enervation in the "feel good when it storms' type of day. Find something else of interest.


SOUTH FLORIDA: The moisture is thinning out in this area as well, save for Dade/Broward County where some high cirrus clouds might be able to be thrown into the equation for good measure as the day wears on. There was a brief thunderstorm earlier over coastal Palm Beach county, possibly as the moisture was departing and saying 'bye bye'.  Believe that as a stronger easterly wind picks up the coast could clear out this afternoon  and provide the impetus for thunderstorm formation toward Lake Okeechobee and eventually the west coast...exiting the west side within an hour of sunset, if not sooner. There could also be an isolated late bloomer somewhere near Brandon toward St. Petersburg very late this afternoon toward sunset.


MONDAY-TUESDAY: Only some minor deviations from the pattern outlined above, although coastal showers might be able to progressively work northward toward KSC by late Monday morning, only if the form directly over that locaion rather than be advected (pushed on in) from offshore. Each day we should be able to push the thunderstorm chance just a shimmy further north. During the transition. Also, some storms over the Bahamas might be able to break loose and come very close to the east coast of Palm Beach or Martin County. Most of this activity will likely spark up during the evening hours and remain offshore. The 4th looks fine for "The Works" on the east side, but gets iffy toward the West coast. So far, things should have cleared those locations in time for any Colorfully Loud Festivities.


WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: More pronounced transition period. At this time the large dome of high pressure over much of the Central U.S. and Deep South will be breaking down and retreating west and south with time as the pattern begins to retrograde in the upper levels. During this time a large Atlantic ridge of high pressure will build in from the west toward Central and South Florida. As it does so, moisture is forecast (as it has been for several days) to dramatically increase into all of South Central Florida as well and deepen gradually through time to levels equitable to those of last week...but not as far north as I-4. Most likely this will have occurred by Thursday noon, but possible sooner. There will probably be a 'jump' in rain chances during the moisture surge of unknown proportions for greater coverage overall, as transition periods tend to be underestimated in that regard, both in coverage and strenght. This will be most notable across all of South Central Florida as far north as the BeachLine from coast to coast. South Florida will  just ooze into the transition more gradually and just see more of the same they will have barely broken free of.


FRIDAY -  FINAL SHUTTLE LAUNCH DAY: It is still not looking all so great for a final launch. Hope it can go at the time of scheduled launch, because as it stands now any delay beyond noon time will only increase the unlikelihood of a launch for several days if not a week. The pattern change, being as we will have been  in the current pattern for over a week by then and transitioning to a different one (these patterns normally take about 5-10 days to fully cycle in the summer)...could hang on in regard to moisture levels and how and where it is shifted around can vary every 24-48 hours, but it will be around. This would mean, if nothing more than, increased cloudiness. Whether clouds are around at launch time could mean one of two things: 1) Clouds would be of convective nature and of sufficient growth to warrant concerns for triggered lightning; or 2) they will simply be too dense, creating a ceiling type not suitable for re-entry. It could go though if: 1) Clouds have not reached sufficient height or density given the earlier time of day; and 2) It could launch with a break in a cloud deck, but would be awful for viewing other than in some lucky, chosen spot ...which in the case of the last launch was from an airplane 25,000 feet above the clouds.


FRIDAY-SATURDAY: A frontal boundary will try to work into the Deep South, but not likely reach Florida. A surface ridge will be across the Florida Straits or "there abouts"..resulting in enhanced chances of Thunderstorm coverage and everything else that goes with it. The pattern will shift toward the Spine of the State toward the West coast for a few days heading toward Sunday, with noon time showers from near the East Coast eventually shifting toward I-4 and the west coast later in the afternoon with time. The pattern might then return back toward favoring the east sideuntil the following weekend.


 It is not very often the A1A corridor from JAX to Vero is favored for thunderstorms to reach those areas, but it is normal for this to occur for a 1-3 day period every 10-20 days during the summer months (from my experience only).


 It is mostly west of I-95 that receives these rains, leaving the immediate coast (A1A corridor) in late day PTSD.."Post Traumatic Storm Debris" rather than a storm itself.


TROPICS:  The prerequisite clincher cliche of interest since, after-all, 'tis the season.


 No big whoop in regard to significant tropical development is foreseen. However, sometime into late week there are hints that some sort of 1 or 2 weak low level circulations could become organized, but nothing more than a weak circulation. Probably what the models are picking up on is perhaps some sort of convective feed back associated with a full day of thunderstorm activity that has moved offshore. Sort of a pseudo-MCC (mesoscale convective complex), but not of text book type by definition evolving from either of the peninsula itself or off Cuba.

Showers and Thunder Mainly Far South Central and South Florida Today

IMAGE FROM SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE: Weak low pressure
circulation off the east coast with a nearly stacked trough across far Southern Osceola County along the red dashed line in general. Little should chance today in this regard

TODAY: The mid-level trough axis that passed from North to South through Central Florida yesterday is now located approximately where the red dashed line is shown. Much drier air resides to the north of this line, mainly just north of the Beach-line. There is still sufficient low level moisture to generate cumulus clouds well to the north toward JAX, but whether showers can generate  in the area with the question mark and into the yellow zone (where there is even more moisture) is debatable. 


CENTRAL: Believe that given that there is some moisture well off shore, and the fact that instability is starting to reach 'moderate levels' all up and down the Gulf Stream, some healthy showers could manifest with a little more daylight well offshore. Guidance has been hinting that there could be a 'wind surge', or uptick in the surface wind from the ENE at or shortly after noon time. If so, this could act as a moisture converging mechanism, provide lift, and possibly much some showers on shore from just preceding the surge to just after ...that give this area roughly a one hour window, sometime between 11:15AM -12:30pm to get some rain, more likely in the yellow area.  TShowers will quickly dwindle as they reach beyond the Orlando area, if even. But note, there is a caveat in the second image for a renegade thunderstorm along or just west of I-95 in Central Brevard (roughly) during this time. If so, it would be short-lived. The other caveat is that the ocean temperature at the coast is cooler than that over the Gulf Stream the past few days. Showers, if they do generate there, might die off before reaching shore (which seems most likely).


SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTH: Along and south of the trough axis is where the greatest moisture resides today. The caveat to this area is that there has been on-going rain/thunderstorms just offshore both coasts this morning to well on shore in a few areas. The SW Coast has not had as much, and far SE Florida toward Miami is well on the way to checkout from rehab , whereas the area near Tampa toward Sarasota might take quite a while, if ever to recover. But that might not matter either way. Showers/storms could form to the east of those locations and advect on in either way no matter which way mamma slices the pie.


Around Lake Okeechobee. Winds are light in South Florida today and only a weak sea breeze is expected; the best chance of a any kind of sea breeze/Lake Breeze collision should be somewhere in-between either coast and any lake side. This is likely where the biggest storms today will exist, as well as along and south of the trough axis.

NW FLORIDA: Completely different ball of wax, in their own synoptic scale world today. Moisture continues in this area that is quite unstable. Any storm in this area, and there could be 2 or 3, would have the greatest likely hood of being more powerful.

BLOG GUESS FOR TODAY: This images shows precipitable water values at this time noted by the number (in inches) and dark green being most likely to produce rainfall if other parameters are also present.

The most obvious area for better rain chances is somewhere within the yellow bounds if we ignore any outside factors that would negate rainfall. Some stronger storms around the Lake, but most definitely not all inclusive. There is, in my mind, also another area around coastal Palm Beach County as well as far SW Florida later this afternoon as outflows from the east meet the west coast sea breeze toward Naples/Cork Screw/Etc...  Additionally, outflows could affect the Northern Keys toward Key Largo ..whether they would generate further thunderstorms or just cooling breezes is Indeterminable. Also, somewhere in the Florida Panhandle could fall prey to some lightning and stronger wind gusts today .

Note the dashed around in East Central Florida. This area could produce some rain mainly only if a wind surge moves in around noon time. Maybe even a short -lived thunderstorm. For Brevard, the better chance of said thunderstorm will be closer to Indian River County...

SUNDAY: Looks a bit like a similar scenario; however, it appears the trough axis will begin to wash out, which in essence omits a focal point. After today's activity, a lot could change in regard to how moisture will have been redistributed by Sunday, as well as if the deeper, synoptic scale moisture will almost altogether be gone by noon time tomorrow in South Florida. It currently appears that there could be a brief coastal shower from Volusia toward Central Brevard sometime over night or in the early morning...with the main activity tomorrow to be focused more on the West Side of the state as the East Coast sea breeze becomes the more driving factor to initiate showers and eventually thunderstorms during the mid-late afternoon from near Tampa Bay and South..inland toward Lake Okeechobee.


JULY 4th -THURSDAY: Some variation of Sunday's pattern will continue, with moisture increasing along the East Coast from near Daytona Beach and South. This would mean possible early day coastal showers working toward the west with time and manifesting as thunderstorms west of the spine of the state as they approach the west coast sea breeze, that is, if it is able to manifest on that side. If so, it might stay very close to the coast. There could also be a variation to this very common theme. Especially by Shuttle Launch time. The launch 'could' still be in jeopardy. If only for an hour or two delay.

Rapid And Continuously Shifting Pattern Change Hourly = Magic 8-Ball 'Cast

IMAGE: Best guess, which will likely require refinement in only an hour or two from now, for today. Most concentrated area of storms or rain shown in red, with thunder in orange and showers (at least) in green. Suspect these areas will need to shrink down a bit (or even a lot) by the time we reach late afternoon.

"SHAKE THE 8-BALL TODAY, AND IF YOU DON"T LIKE THE ANSWER, JUST TRY AGAIN IN AN HOUR, BECAUSE IT WILL COME UP WITH SOMETHING DIFFERENT" FORECAST TODAY:


Huh? Here's the situ' today. Rapid transition from the pattern of the past several days is in place. Not unexpected to eventually occur, but it is happening fairly rapidly in big chunks. Now that the Tropical Storm (Arlene) is fully out of the picture and hot/dry hot pressure is building eastward across the middle of the county, available atmospheric moisture is shrinking from North to South (North Florida), and South to North (South Florida). We now have one narrow band of enhanced moisture across Central Florida which is rapidly shifting east and off shore as well as thinning out quickly off the coast of Brevard County just south of a developing pseudo-stationary front combined with a mid-and upper level trough axis. This latter feature is sinking slowly South from roughly Southern Volusia County toward North of Tampa Bay and is expected to continue this trend into Saturday, at which point it will be located near South Florida by 'storm time' tomorrow afternoon.


Meanwhile, sea breezes are developing from the ENE over coastal North Florida and from the E-SE south of the boundary. The moist moisture throughout is converging ahead of this boundary as stated near of just south of the Beach Line to Tampa, but is thinning out.  South Florida, roughly South of Lake Okeechobee, is holding its own with a respectable amount of moisture, but that too has thinned considerably compared to past days. Otherwise, it looks like a few mid level impulses will ride along the boundary over North Central to eventually Central Florida or South Central later today/tonight.


In the meantime, the west coast sea breeze appears to be getting a head start as of noon in regard to sea -breezes, and for a change the east coast sea breeze has taken shape a bit. Believe the West Coast breeze will be the dominant boundary today, at least until 4-5pm. Convection, per imagery (above) has already begun over far South Florida and might already be worked over for later today despite what model guidance is indicating since it showed not activity in this location as of just an hour ago.


TODAY: Much less coverage of random light-moderate showers, with isolated stronger thunderstorms today mainly east of the spine of the state will approach the east coast from the West-WNW-NW 9 (with time) over Central Florida and from the West-WSW over South Florida.  The east coast sea breeze will likely keep stronger storms from getting east of I-95 north of 528 but can work into US1 , diagonaling closer to the coast from Mibco toward Vero Beach and south toward Ft Pierce/West Palm Beach from 3pm. and beyond. Given the sunnier sky today, Lake Okeechobee breezes will form and could impact any location around the Lake, but favor the east side over Northern Broward, Palm Beach, Martin, and possibly comb St. Lucie County closer to the coast line. All in all, there could be mass accumulation of lingering rainfall toward the east side of the state from Indian River County south to Martin County until late this evening by the time all is said and done, or roughly the South 1/2 of the area outlined in 'red' in the above image.


STORMS TODAY: Storms today will again hold the potential for lightning, possibly more prolific than in days past (other than the few stronger storms that formed). All in all, there might only by 2-4 particularly strong storms today, somewhere from South Brevard County to Broward County...roughly anywhere the 'red' is drawn.  There is a small chance of a funnel cloud or water spout near the coast just off shore from Indian River County and south. Perhaps another area to watch would be near Mosquito Lagoon...but that area seems will 'wash out' too soon for favorable wind conditions before any storm (if there is one) can reach that area.

Think I'll resort to the Ouija Board.


SATURDAY: Again, it is is hard to determine what tomorrow will bring considering the rapid transition currently at play. The best bet for storms/rain tomorrow appears will be over South Central and South Florida, with perhaps some early morning activity close to the coast of Brevard and/or Indian River County through early -mid morning before the sea breeze sets in (which should be early).


SUNDAY: Much quieter most locations with drier air over all locations. Best chance for storms appears will be over South Florida ,south of Lake Okeechobee...mostly favoring SW Florida.


MONDAY-WEDNESDAY; Increasing moisture from South to North, possibly reashing the Beachline latitude by Late Wednesday or Thursday. The moisture return will not render the same type of weather conditions that was seen over the state the past few days...in that this time it will all be occurring a bit 'in reverse'. In some ways, it looks like the entire pattern will start to actually 'retrograde', and end up with somewhat of a bit modified pattern by next weekend to that which we just have experienced in regard to wind wind fields, only with less overall total moisture across a vast expanse.


4th of July: Looks good for Fireworks North and East Central, Interior Central and South Florida look more posed for possible problems


SHUTTLE LAUNCH: Not looking so great for a launch as scheduled now. There has continuously been indications that some deep moisture will either be in place or nearly so on this day. It might have to be delayed for no other reason than the clouds


OH GREAT. Just heard thunder, and I have yet to hit the send button. Good grief...there it goes again.

Yet Another Tabloid Weather Forecast For Today- Less Widespread Tomorrow

COULD RAIN ALMOST ANYWHERE TODAY THROUGH 10PM. BUT WHERE? EASY TO REASON WHY...BUT THERE'S ONLY DEFINITIVE SCENARIOS ...NOT LOCATIONS. THIS IMAGE DEPICTS THE SCENARIO WHICH SEEMS TO FIT THE DAY...BUT NO GUARANTEES

TODAY: Mid-level trough axis runs across North Florida from the Big Bend toward St. Augustine. There are two, ill -defined surface ridge axis', one across Lake Okeechobee and one totally out of the picture to the South. One of these will likely washout with daytime heat while another relocates, driven by synoptic scale features.  There are several vorticity maximums at various levels of the atmosphere (which help to stir things up) forecast by models. However, they are shown to be not only in different locations at different levels, but they also vary 'in said' from model to model. This makes today another day of second guessing and Tabloid reading. 


There are some definitives though..namely that the most moisture covers all of Central Florida..part of South Central and part of North Central as well. The most unstable air is near the 700mb trough over North Florida as well as along the immediate coast of South East Florida. Showers are already initiating in a part of North Central Florida.


THE "SITU' " - Showers will first generate where sky is clearest this morning to the north where it is also less 'capped' with convective inhibition. South Florida is most capped, less moist, but also most unstable.


Central lies somewhere in between with the most moisture. Showers, some with heavy rain, will form in the most moist air and grow in number and strength as they inch eastward at around 10mph. Storms will develop further south and begin to spread east as well over Dead Central with stronger thunder after 12:30pm and increase in number as they fan out along outflow boundaries to the east-north-and south toward the East Coast. 


SOUTH FLORIDA: Sticky-cast today. They have some options for storms with frequent lightning today after 4-5pm; however, anvil level winds should be sheared off to the South (from activity over Central)  which in turn would turn the unstable atmosphere down that way more stable and in essence, neutralizing the area. However, if activity begins to wane further north by 4pm..the denser anvil tops might clear South Florida for an early evening lightning show south of Lake Okeechobee..especially if outflow from storms from the north work into the area, acting as a triggering mechanism.


NORTH FLORIDA: This area is along the mid-level trough axis, and therefore has a 'focal point'. The air is not quite as moist in North Florida near the Big Bend - Gainesville and points a bit further east and south to just north of Ocala. Therefore, I scribbled in a bit haphazardly another area in North Florida in red for late afternoon - early evening thunderstorms as well. This area will not be over-run by high clouds, so this area has a few points going for it in that regard. And, given this is where the trough axis lies ..has higher confidence.  


IN GENERAL; Storms will initiate where the triggers lie initially where-ever the vorticity moves across at various locations. The scenario should unfold first where it is sunnier and then where the moist moisture resides (Central). Storms will likely weaken as they attempt to cross I-95 except possible those in South Florida if they initiate at all. The heaviest rains will fall west of I-95 where the larger storms occur and begin to dwindle. Although spotty in big totals, there could be some area that receive 2" today...now, whether that falls on an observation point where it can be measured for verification is another matter.


Lightning: The most lightning will strike with the storms that occur after 1pm and become most numerous with those associated with activity after 3:30pm, wherever that may be.  Many have heard, "When it Roars, Stay Indoors". However!! That is not the way it often works. Most individuals are harmed by lightning not by when they hear the thunder roaring. It is BEFORE it roars and as it stops that they are injured. If skies overhead start to darken and look threatening, that is THE time to watch out for those first few strikes. Additionally, the nature of storms lately has been for renegade strikes to hit at seemingly the most benign time either where it just rained heavily...or had done so not far away. Bear this in mind today, although the same rule applies whenever there is a developing or decaying thunderstorm. 


Rains: Nuisance ponding, some localized flooding in a few locations if they fall on a less rural area, and the ever present hazard of driving on wet roads no matter how heavy or lightly the rain falls. Some heavy storms could hit at rush hour. Problems in that regard.


Wind: Could be some stronger winds, especially in the most northern or southern areas outlined after 3:30pm through 7pm.


FRIDAY: Another challenging day in store, but everything should be shifting south a bit.


SATURDAY; Likely less moisture will be over the state, with focal points more easily determined with a return to a solid sea-breeze regime, somewhere in the state.


SUNDAY: Looks pretty quiet. At least compared to the past several days. It does appear at time we could be heading into a 2-3 day regime of early along the east coast shifting into the interior in the late afternoon. Much warmer due to less cloud coverage but less so along the east coast (east of I-95).

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MADE LANDFALL IN MEXICO AT THE TIME NOTED ON THIS IMAGE EARLY THIS MORNING, 4:45AM EDT:


AND FINALLY: Here is the forecast precipitation total put out by the North American Model early this morning for the next 42 hours. The darker and pretty the colors, the more rain it is forecasting to occur by the end of that 42 hours (or Friday night). Does the Inquirer always tell the whole truth, and nothing but the truth??!!! I'm having doubts.

1:20pm Update

Graphic for latest situation.

 

 

Early Start to Rains Will Likely Mean an Early End To Them Some Locationss

SPURIOUS QUICK MARK UP MADE AT 8AM ALREADY INVALID

TODAY: Tropical Storm Arlene in the SW Gulf will likely meander W to WSW toward the Mexican Coast into Thursday. Meanwhile, as the system has wrapped up much of the moisture that was washing over Florida was pulled into it; however, there remains a large pocket of moisture over Florida that is being resupplied from the South. The above image shows what I was expecting to occur during the course of the day.  This is no longer valid considering the activity that has already begun.

It appears that a mid-level trough axis lies just offshore the Cape Area with SW Florida south of the axis. Showers offshore and back-building toward the east coast. This activity should peak out during the course of the late morning toward early noon, leaving a large area of light rain and/or extensive cloudiness. Other storms other than those to form over Central and South Central will form over portions of North Central. These are expected to be of more isolated nature. Regardless, the main threat from this activity will be a brief period of lightning and heavy rainfall.

Meanwhile. other activity is developing along the NW Coast and is pressing east to east-northeast. Much of this activity might start to dwindle as clouds from the north run over the developing storms. In essence, today will be marked by short lived storms with low cloud bases with a movement toward the NW. The biggest impact today will be heavy rains in select locations. with lightning present and most prolific in nature after from 2-5pm.

Weather South Florida can recover from the clouds and anvil flow they will likely be under from storms further north (toward that red area early)...is yet to be determined, although models have indicated this area will recover.  Otherwise, it is yet another day of the same old story, just a different version. The saga is expected to continue on Thursday with yet another day of second guessing this very unpredictable, moisture laden medley of "moisture soup".

FRIDAY: By Friday, the indirect affects of the the tropical system should have dwindled but with plentiful moisture remaining over the state. Based on latest guidance, strong thunderstorms could occur over a broad expanse of Central Florida if storms wait until at least early afternoon to form. But, given the latest tredns, this too could change.

BEYOND: Model guidance has indicated a shift in the pattern by late Friday or Saturday but I'm not fully sold. Some other models are showing a return to a more normal, summer like pattern...whereas others indicate a much drier pattern with SE winds prevailing both at the surface and aloft. Should that pattern indeed occur, we could be in for a more prolonged dry period for at least 3-4 days.

Different Version of the Same Story Today

IMAGE: Enhanced Infrared Image at 8:30AM. Areas of note 1) Bay of Campeche - numerous heavy thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave. This could develop into a depression today, but no further development is expect 2) Inverted mid-level trough runs from "The Bay" toward Florida. Mid-upper level clouds are ejecting from "The Bay" and running along this boundary and over Florida 3) low and mid-level ridge axis across Central Florida, light winds near that axis 4) What looks like an MCV north of Puerto Rico - not a tropical system...at least not yet.

The above image highlights the ongoing, over-souped with moisture, air mass quality over Florida today. Much of the moisture in the mid-upper levels is over-flow from the Bay of Campeche area associated with thunderstorm activity there  which is getting caught up along an inverted trough extending toward Florida; thus, the partly to mostly cloudy sky (except SE Florida this morning).  Another interesting feature is what appears to be some sort of 'vortex' embedded in the prevailing easterlies in the tropic north of Puerto Rico. This area looks very organized, for what it's worth, but does not appear to be fully tropical in nature. Not development is expected. The area in The Bay of Campeche (BOC) appears to be in nomination of Tropical Depression status, if not a very brief Tropical Storm. However, if elected, it will be running a very short term of office...in Mexico.




Zooming in closer to the state of Florida:

AGAIN: The Blue line (hard to see) shows the mid-upper level trough axis. The dark blue color is the most moisture. Note that moisture is greatest along this wind shift axis which defines this trough axis. Upper level winds above this axis are carrying the moisture from thunderstorm tops across Florida. Weak surface winds abound with the ridge axis running across Central Florida,(shown in red). Surface winds along the East Coast are generally light from the SSE-SE south of this axis this morning, but mostly light and variable except off shore.

TODAY: "Same Old Story,Same Old Song and Dance"...just a different verse in a different key. But most will hear "Rainy Days and Tuesdays Always Get Me Down".  Extensive cloudiness is in place over Central Florida but SE Florida has cleared out nicely, for a short time.  The clearing skies will be the catalyst to start of thunderstorm in this area, with a prevalent but weak northward push.


Steering currents are quite light from the SSW-S - SSE today around the ridge axis, and will have little bearing today in the long run. When push comes to shove, storms that do form will move little more than 5-10 miles in their life span. Expect that collapsing outflows will send further storm growth toward the N-NW with time...with storm debris laying low around any side of Lake Okeechobee in Palm Beach and Okeechobee Counties (for example) after an early to mid-afternoon round of thunderstorms.  Debris clouds will spread east and north with time toward Central Florida coastline communities, with some light rain possible.


Could be some localized flooding of South Florida today, but it appears the longest duration of heavy rains might occur in mostly rural areas away from the coast. Lightning and careful driving are about the only precautions really, but given that clouds have cleared there pretty nicely (at least so far)...some stronger storms could put out some stronger winds in the down pours. A wet microburst (a short period of strong wind in heavy rain) or two in the strongest storms could occur.


SOUTH CENTRAL: Storms also possible in this area near the East Coast..possibly toward Vero Beach..with a storm or two further north. The greatest concentration will be well west of I-95 from 3pm and beyond.  


NORTH CENTRAL: This area seems to be the least likely to have storms today. But note the ***DISCLAIMER at the end of this post. Mostly cloudy North Central today.


NORTH FLORIDA/PANHANDLE: Best chance of strong, late afternoon and early -mid evening thunderstorms.

OVERALL: Most folks today will not have a thunderstorm over head today, but might be able to hear thunder. A larger portion of folks will receive rain from thunderstorm debris (three fold). Most folks north of SR 60 and east of I-95 might not see any rain today (or north of Vero Beach). There could still be isolated thunderstorms though north of Vero just west of I-95 with the weaker sea breeze. Most thunder will be over by 8:30pm other than over North Florida.

NOTE CAPTIONS IN COLORED TEXT ASSOCIATED WITH EACH CORRESPONDING AREA

***DISCLAIMER: Much of the weather today over Central Florida will be contingent upon how well the clouds break up. It is possible that some showers and storms could sprout out regardless. If so, these storms will move little from their point of origin during their brief but heavy life span. If clouds break up more than expected, much of this post in regard to 'coverage' north of a line running from Vero Beach toward Tampa will need to ramped up substantially to include higher coverage toward I-4, including inland Osceola, Orange, and Western Brevard.


WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: There is a weak surface boundary/front forecast today to move well into the Southeast states by tonight. This front and the associated upper level trough could provide a change in steering currents on Wednesday for a more typical thunder storm regime (albeit..a bit modified)....for Wednesday and/or Thursday wit plentiful moisture still in place. Believe Wednesday and Thursday will play a different song than the same one of yesterday and today.


BEYOND: A lot will depend on what happens in the Bay of Campeche


Beyond that time, this  would mean that a change toward more cloud free skies could be in place for the weekend. Models vary between a more prevalent SSE-SE flow across the state, favoring the west side for late afternoon thunderstorms..or that of a generic inland late day thunderstorm regime (with storms away from either coast other than Tampa Bay). But first, the system in the Gulf (and the mechanisms driving it)...need to move on out. 

Storm Feast or Single Serving? Big Question, Huge Differences For Today

Image portrays the jet stream level winds for early through mid-late afternoon. These winds of 40-45Kts are forecast to shift a bit south during the course of late afternoon into the evening hours.

IN GENERAL: Big debate of the day for South Central and Central Florida today is this: Will it be downpours with 2-3 inches of rain possible and frequent lightning, or will there just be a few storms with most of them on the west side of the state by later today mostly over Interior North Central Florida toward the Panhandle? The debate is up in full gear. For today's post, I'll elaborate on the worst case scenario (the most rain)...but do note, as of this writing it appears there is a 1 in 4 chance of this potential.


SITUATION: Today's activity does not appear it will driven so much by sea breezes as much as it will be by true, gradient flow. The Surface to 2000ft ridge axis is forecast to lift toward North Central Florida today providing for easterly flow, which turns more toward the SE later today. Meanwhile, mid and upper level winds remain from the SW-W because the ridge in the mid levels remains over far South Florida. This equates to steering over portions of South Central and all of North Central to be from generally the west, but at only about 10-15mph. 


The big fly in the ointment today is the cloud cover. The convective temperature per the KSC sounding of recent has a convective temperature of 87F (down from 89F earlier this morning). That seems possible inland, despite the cloud cover. Some showers and a weak storm has materialized inland in a break in the clouds.  


Instability and moisture availability are not an issue today with precipitable water values near 2.00" just about everywhere other than South Florida.


NOW: It appears the Southerly gradient flow is enhancing the sea breeze off the Southern Tip of Florida as cumulus already appear to be forming down there and clearing the coast line, pressing north toward Lake Okeechobee.  The Lake Okeechobee breeze might also be playing a role today as that seems to be forming. It is hard to say for sure because it's happening under some cloud cover. One shower has formed over the interior of North Central and seems to be..gasp..stationary. A transition seems to be under way.


TODAY: In playing the stormy scenario as dictated by the title of the post today, the reason for the 'storms' will not be so much because of sea breeze driven boundaries as much as it would be because of a synoptic scale feature. That being, 500mb and 700mb  vorticity. If that indeed is true, convective temperatures might not be all so important today. Instability will be the driving factor behind just how 'stormy' it gets and for storms to form in the first place..or if there is too much cloud coverage remaining,  mainly storms going up quickly and turning to 'anvil rain' east of the spine of the state.

A model depiction of 500mb vorticity today later today. Some is shown of greater extent a few hours earlier further north, but it spreads southward with time. The first shower of the day in this area has materialized WNW of Daytona well inland. Note the vorticity streaming across the state further south...this is where some big storms could occur today. But this is shown by only on model. Other models have the vorticity all north of I-4.

In the image above, note the lack of vorticity over South Florida..this area is also seemingly behind their sea breeze already..so storms south of Lake Okeechobee should be in and out of that area quickly if ever...approaching mainly off of Cuba. This vorticity stream is forecast to continue through sunset to various degrees before organizing well off to the east of the state tonight.


Now: From a different model we can pull out a plot of the Energy Helicity Index. This is a value which combines energy (Convective Available Potential Energy) which can be tapped into for convection (storms) to form with helicity which is function of, in simplest terms, corkscrewing winds aloft which also provide lift.

ENERGY HELICITY INDEX FROM 0-3KM (Kilometers) this afternoon

By looking at these two images, again, we see little over South Florida..but note that area coming off of Cuba...from the south. This could mean big storms for Cuba toward the Keys by evening.


With all given:


STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS: Florida Panhandle due to wind gusts of 60mph and 1" hail (very isolated).


SOME STRONGER STORMS: North Central Florida North of SR 60. Some could be magnified near the coast after 6pm from Near Vero Beach north to St. Augustine as the SE winds kick in later today under enhanced gradient / sea breeze winds. BUT..will storms make it to the coast?! 


If the bigger storms go up well to the west, with slow forward motion, their anvils will overspread the areas to their east (East of Orlando)...and kill any other activity trying to move that way. On the other-hand, if storms are driven by vorticty as shown in the first image then storms might be able to hold their own without the otherwise debilitating factor of anvil debris.


IN SUMMARY: Per the title, more questions than answers abound today. Looks like there will be a feast of storms today across portions of South Central to North Florida, but just exactly where and how they manifest is debatable. If we run with high coverage of storms, they should manifest in full between 2-3pm sometime in rapid fire fashion and continue through 8pm, gradually diminishing in coverage and strength after 7pm. Otherwise, storms will be much more isolated in nature and be  dependent upon cloud breaks, sea, and lake breezes. Most likely north of I-4. South of I-4 will have just a few storms, inland..with the areas further east covered in anvil debris or light, debris cloud rains after 5pm with few if any storms south of I-4. What a conundrum.


DAYS AHEAD: No shortage of moisture is in store. Things get more interesting in days ahead as the both ridge axis' are forecast to be south of South Central Florida, if not further south than that as an upper level trough begins to dig down the Eastern Sea Board. There is hints that one day, either Tuesday or Wednesday, will be much more quiet during the transition...on the other hand..Wednesday or Thursday could be very active once again...with even stronger storms possible than the past two days. There might even be a day where rains will not be solely confined to afternoon and evening hours.


TODAY'S HAZARDS: Mainly lightning and heavy rain (driving/flood prone areas). Some rainfall totals in the worst case scenario could be over 3". Otherwise, 1-1.75" totals could occur in the heaviest storms combined with storm debris rains hovering over those same areas. Storms will be moving pretty slowly today, but large storms will move a bit faster and cover more turf/marsh/and city.

Not As Warm Today, Bug Muggy - Showers and Thunder Possible

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE: A lot of thunderstorms over St. Petersburg area this morning and in the western Gulf. Anvil tops are spreading across the state as are pockets of mid-clouds and unrelated cirrus clouds. Closer inspection shows some of these clouds are thinning over South Florida where the best chance of rain will be (Namely South of I4). See below for more information regarding some factors today.

SYNOPSIS -WHAT'S THE 'SITCH?  Today's weather is being dictated once again by a low level ridge axis over South Florida and a mid- level ridge across Central Florida. Winds  at all levels are weak, but from the WSW and less than 10kts. By the whole, not much change from this wind field type pattern is expected through at least Monday or Tuesday (and possibly longer).


Clouds and storms continue to erupt over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and are moving little, but they are creating high clouds to stream across North Central Florida.  There is a break in the clouds over South Florida in the high clouds but more are upstream, but they look pretty thin.


To consider today: Do not believe it will get as warm today (mid-upper 80Fs most places except in the Panhandle/North Florida will it will be in the 90Fs).  Normally, cloud cover would damper thunder or even rain chances to near zero. however, the KSC sounding this morning showed a convective temperature required to start convective activity at only 84F. So high clouds or not, storms and showers should be able to form. I think in that image above I can even see some cumulus trying to form under the cirrus areas along SW Florida as I type, and other showers are starting to form over North Florida where even there the air mass is not quite as moist as the remainder of the state, but where the sun is bearing down more readily. Therefore, my disclaimer for today is: "Watch for large cloud breaks where storms are most likely to form. It is possible that broad coverage of storms today will not be nearly all that it is being made up to be (0nTV)".


Temperatures: Less warm inland temperatures today could mean less initial impact of sea breezes due to their later start. Winds should turn on shore at the beaches with no problem, but only remain very light until after 3-4mph. Upper level winds from the W  are forecast to strengthen just a small bit later today over the North Half of the state.  

IMAGE VALID FROM 1PM THROUGH 9:00PM. Excuse the typos. Oops.  Depending on where one is located.  Showers or light rain from storm debris type clouds 'could' fall just about anywhere today before 9pm.  Generous supply of thunderstorms looks to be in the cards for South Central and South Florida  (Mostly around Lake Okeechobee) today around the developing seabreezes and Lake Breezes. Some of these storms could be strong requiring Special Weather Statements. Further North, Storms should be more isolated until after
 4 Pm due to great cloud coverage. It is uncertain (to me) just exactly how much if any activity can get activity north of a line running from Melbourne to Altamonte Springs . So this red highlighted area is showing that if any storms do get going in that area they could be the strongest due to slightly cold air in the mid-levels...more so the further north one goes where it is also a bit drier in the mid-levels leading to stronger down drafts.

TODAY: Convection will get started first where clouds are thinnest and the temperatures warm. As temperatures warm, as they always do on a summer day, sea breezes will form..and make greater inland progression after 3-4pm. Exactly how far either coast's breeze gets will determine where or even IF they will meet (looks unlikely except maybe over SW Florida toward the Lake over the Everglades)...as well as where storms will or won't occur today.  Thus, the huge outlined area. More than half the state today will NOT get rained on today..so it's not a rain out day as much as a 'cloud out' day.

NOTE that I have used the word "Could" numerous times in this post. There is nothing all too certain, although the forecast discussions do read that all official outlets (Weather Service Offices) are certain of storms today. Based on all of the above, that seems pretty certain...the difficulty is not so much with 'will it ?' as much as 'where?'.

PRECAUTIONS: Biggest impact will be localized flooding, particularly in those areas that are flood prone and which received good rainfall yesterday. The other caution is that for lightning strikes. The final TBAO (To Be Aware Of) is that for stronger wind gusts within downpours. Any down pour could briefly create strong winds of 40-55mph just about anywhere within that downpour with thunder present, but the greatest chance for such appears will be over the area noted in red. But note, this is only by a very small margin, and all in all it probably won't make that much of a difference.  

WHERE: Looks like most storms of strength will be west of I-95 today namely due to the pretense that they will be strong with a stronger sea breeze (under that assumption). The sea breeze will be stronger than the steering making for slow/erratic  storm motions. Additionally, heavy rain falls will likely 'rain storms out' before they can move all so far, perhaps every single item storm will only move about 10-15 miles at most  before decaying. Any storms to reach beyond I-95 will have to be very late toward evening if it's going to be strong, doing so by working on outflow from a previous storm, somewhere else, and would be of isolated nature if it were to occur.

Widespread Coverage of Lightning and Heavier Rains 'Possible' Again Today

IMAGE: At 11AM satellite image is showing rapid clearing of extensive cloud cover that was over the state earlier. South and South Central area clearing first and destabilization is now underway as some cumulus clouds are becoming apparent where the cloud breaks are largest. Storms should form in order and timing much like yesterday, although some earlier development than yesterday is possible, especially South.. Orange areas show that a sea breeze can develop once the clouds break up and heating of the land mass ensues. Once critical warmth inland is reached, the sea breeze will form. More than likely, as it looks now, it will first form over South Florida and work northward up the coast. Showers and thunderstorms can form along the sea breeze very near the coast as it works north, or, it make start at almost anytime. No particular area seems to be favor for sooner development, although the area north of the Cape might be much later (if ever) than further south.

THE BIG PICTURE: See image and text above. Note the colored text as well as that in black off to the left in that image. The yellow line depicts where there might be a mid-level disturbance in the atmosphere to cross the state today. RUC model fields are showing a large area of upward vertical motions throughout the atmosphere today beginning at 1pm. These motions are shown to occur from the ground up to 20,000 ft. This almost always implies a very large coverage of storms ..some strong. Temperatures aloft today are much like yesterday, so do not expect hail other than pea sized in strong downdrafts as storms first begin to collapse.

LATER Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) shows
this large area of vertical motion (VV or Vertical Velocity) at 3pm this afternoon.
Thus, highest storm coverage should be over the south half of the state.
Some areas could receive a storm more than once today....especially on the East Half of the  state

As stated, the atmosphere is loaded with moisture throughout the 'column'...precipitable water values across the state are between 1.8" - 2.1". This high moisture content can precip (rain ) out as  big rainfall totals once again where strong storms occur. Even a brief storm can drop 1/2" with no problem. Lingering rains until 9-10pm will add a little more to where either heavy rain has already fallen or for those areas that never receive a storm today. Not everyone will have a big storm today which should go without saying. It'll be a roll of the dice and a spin of the wheel to see how and where the chips may fall. Someone today is going to be dealt a Royal Flush...perhaps over South Florida near the coast, perhaps Central Florida (somewhere), or perhaps Somewhere in North Florida later today in the form of a Severe Storm with strong winds...time will tell. Who knows, maybe they won't see storms at all today as shown by the morning NAM model. Hmmm...


EARLY-MID AFTERNOON: Rain/storm coverage should increase slowly and haphazardly for much of the day through 3pm. The west coast sea breeze will ignite storms as it works east, and be accompanied by the mid-level trough and upper level lift as it prods ahead. We can see the forecast 'lift' in the atmosphere by the image above.  Over North Florida...another separate region  of lift will form later this afternoon associated with divergent (and stronger) jet stream level winds north of SR 528 to JAX, being the strongest from DAB to JAX. This too, can result in strong storms contingent upon how much the clouds can clear in  that area, and thus, the atmosphere can destabilize. This is depicted in the first image. A funnel cloud is again possible with a storm or two near the coast along the sea-front front in the early afternoon  and/or later in the afternoon as the west coast sea breeze progresses toward the East Coast in those areas not affected by early afternoon rains.


LATE-AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: The strongest storms should occur after 4PM until 9:00pm as the mid-level trough works across the state in conjunction with the most unstable time of day and progression of the west coast sea breeze. Storms will move in general from west to east at 10 -15mph, but this rather slow motion as is almost always the case, will also allow out flow boundaries and progression/propagation along those boundaries to result in chaotic individual storm motions. Radar could show one storm moving north with another nearby storm moving in almost the opposite direction...but the general progression will be from west to east.  Outflow from storms back to the west can initiate more storms in the 'cleaner air"...which would result in some training of a storms in a few locations over the same areas, mainly inland. Storms up and down the east coast today should be able to move offshore ...if not earlier then later in the afternoon toward early evening.

AVERAGED MOISTURE CONTENT AT 11AM: Blue is very moist. Two mid-level troughs are shown, one  off the Gulf (West Coast) and another in the Panhandle. Note comments on the graphic in the colored text.

SUNDAY: Another of storms looks to be in the cards. Oh well. How things will play out tomorrow cannot be determined ...with even a guess...until we see how today/tonight ends up.


MONDAY: Could be another of storms, with less coverage. Some storms on Monday might be stronger though due to less overall coverage, greater instability, and sea breezes smacking more firmly together closer to the interior with only slow storm motion.


TUESDAY: For now, it looks like there could be noon time type showers forming near the coast and progressing westward as the day wears on across the spine of the state and toward the west side late in the afternoon. This pattern COULD continue for two days...OR...we might slide straight into a more 'marine showers' type regime on the east side..evolving into thunderstorms the further west they progress, especially over South Florida. Time will tell.


TROPICS: Not looking as much like tropical storm development will occur in the Bay of Campeche, although a depression is still possible which would move right into Mexico. This, in part, is due to the fact that the ridge axis which is dictating storm motion in Florida might not lift as far north as has been forecast the past 2 days.  (another reason why thunderstorms can occur on the east side of the state again tomorrow).  We will need to continue to monitor the Gulf of Mexico though going into the first week of July, closer to Florida. The GFS, although preposterously too far out in time to be close to accurate, has been showing development toward Florida for several runs...and continues to do so. Could the Shuttle Launch be rained or clouded out, not from a 'system' but because of rainshowers? Time will tell. 

Showers and Thunder At Some Point Possible Just About Anywhere Today

VERY PRELIMINARY AND NOT NECESSARILY ALL INCLUSIVE/EXCLUSIVE-
SEE CAPTIONS - BIGGEST INCONVENIENCE TODAY
WILL BE HIGH HUMIDITY/RAIN/LIGHTNING. Note that even in those areas in green that thunder can still occur but be of less overall coverage.

TODAY - SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: Really not much too say in regard to vigorous stormy low pressure troughs today. The climate around Florida today will be right on cue, that being, like a typical summer day that ends with showers and thunderstorms around the state - starting by early afternoon and lasting until late tonight.


The weather across most of the state will be dictated not by synoptic scale placement of stormy troughs but rather by high pressure at various levels (above the ground) which will dictate the strength of the sea -breezes as well as the direction of storm motion.  However, although the direction of motion is from WSW toward the ENE  in general, this will not necessarily be the direction that storms will 'move' since those winds are weak, perhaps not even as strong as the sea breezes will be once they develop.  Storms, once developed,  will more or less propogate along sea-breeze and Lake Breeze boundaries...but will first form along these boundaries and move along the motion of the boundary rather than be steered by upper level winds.   This makes the determination of just exactly where rain will or won't occur very tough to pin down, especially as we get later into the afternoon and sea breezes strengthen and Lake Breezes (particularly the Lake Okeechobee shadow)...changes direction.


NOW: For now, the West Coast Sea breeze so far today as of 1pm has a jump start on the East Coast sea-breeze. It is clear that at this hour, even way out on the barrier island where the wind is from the south..that there is a prevalent SW flow elsewhere. This can be seen by satellite animation as well as  detected by the smell of smoke over in Merritt Island and Cocoa Beach from a fire that is smoldering in the SW part of Brevard County..with a slight sea breeze on the islands creating sinking air which is trapping the smoke and some haze near the ground. 


Otherwise, the winds aloft for steering are the strongest over the Northern Part of the state from near Central Volusia County and north along a bit of a deformation zone which was further to the north of the state yesterday. Showers and some thunder have been ongoing up that way and are moving from west to east.. Some higher clouds from this area could impinge as far south as Flagler County oand over toward Cedar Key on the west side of the state and deter storms from growing stronger than normal, especially in the absence of a sea breeze boundary to work with at the low levels. Not really expecting tremendously strong storms well to the north in and near this zone, but one or two zesty ones are possible given the winds aloft. 


ELSEWHERE FROM NORTH CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL-SOUTH:


Daytime heating is bearing down on a very moist low level atmosphere with dewpoint temperatures will into the 70Fs. The atmosphere is expected to become moderately unstable this afternoon with cool air aloft, but nothing unusual. Winds aloft are very light and were nearly calm this morning at some levels of the atmosphere at the time the soundings were taken.  With daytime heating a thermal trough of lower pressure will form down the spine of the state, most pronounced from West of JAX toward Lake Okeechobee, more toward the East Side of the state.  Early day inhibition will hold off storms until after 2-3pm as the sea-breezes gain momentum..although some could start sooner in isolated fashion on Lake boundaries as well.


The strongest storms will occur between 5:30pm -8:30pm with some big rainfall accumulations possible due to slow storm motion and high moisture content of the atmosphere which tall storms will tap into throughout their growth stage. The heaviest rain will fall as storms begin to collapse under their own weight wherever that may happen to be. Some of those heaviest storms could put down strong wet-microburst like winds within and near those downpours.  This type activity will occur over the interior areas for the most part. The strongest storms will form during these hours due to meeting of Lake/Sea/and outflow boundaries (from previous storms earlier in the day as well as newer ones) after peak heating and when the sea breezes are at their strongest and start to approach each other.


WILL ANY EAST COAST BEACH-SIDE COMMUNITY RECEIVE RAIN TODAY?: This is where the models today are different from days past. There is a hint that the sea-breeze will not hold up much past 7pm under the more pronounced SW-SSW synoptic scale flow...and may collapse during this time frame. For now, I'm showing in the image above that the best chance of actual storms moving offshore is from North of SR528 and north to JAX where upper level winds are a bit stronger, but this is not to say that toward evening time up through 10pm that a storm could not move offshore elsewhere along the coast due to outflow from inland storms sending the sea breeze back toward the coast underneath this prevalent synoptic scale wind flow.   


ALSO NOTE: Some areas that appear will be most favorable for a storm today could quickly loose those credentials in the event that a storm further upstream sends up high level clouds (the storm anvil) out in that direction, spreading clouds over an otherwise unstable and favorable area for a future storm to form (and thus, making it much less likely at the flick of a switch). Storm anvils determine where it won't rain just as much as wind boundaries determine where it will.  At least, with much of any 'vigor'.


By early evening some sort of mesoscale system(s) will become dominant somewhere over Central or South Florida, and it is where and how one of these systems (or combination thereof) evolves that will be the deciding factor in regard to where mid-late evening isolated storms will move toward or linger for more rainfall accumulation.

This image shows the Downdraft CAPE; accessed through the Storm Prediction Center website at spc.noaa.gov
This shows were the best potential is for stronger down drafts; however, these values are not overly impressive. It is interesting that the axis of higher values runs right along where the Lake Okeechobee shadow is currently located  toward Cocoa Beach(and thus subsiding air at the low levels...which leads to stronger down drafts in storms that  can form in the area).. However, once the surface winds change so will these values, both in their number and location.

SATURDAY: TBD, but looks a bit like today, only shifting things a bit further south. A lot could change by tomorrow depending on what happens where today, how much, and how late...so for now, we can run with the pack and assume that storms are again possible tomorrow. Where will the be most likely? Anyones' guess.


TROPICS: Not tropical issues down the line. Will start hearing about the Bay of Campeche/Honduras/SW Gulf area for the next several days, but just exactly what will form there and where it will go if it does is up for grabs. Currently it appears though that anything that does get organized enough to become a depression or storm will remain there and move west toward the Mexico Border and possibly toward extreme Southern Texas. However, even as far away as this tropical activity will be, the overall synoptic scale pattern which  would favor (or not favor) any development will also indirectly impact the weather over the State of Florida most of next week.


At this point, it looks like the East Side of the state could see an end to the thunderstorms though beginning as soon as Sunday afternoon. This has been the trend of the GFS for several days...now, what is still to be determined is whether this flow (from the ESE-SE) will be a moist flow favoring east coast ocean shower activity at almost any time...or be a dry one with few clouds in the sky. Either way, it would favor the west side of the state for the thunder.