Strong Storms Possible Port St. John to Vero/Ft. Pierce Late Today

See Colored Captions For Details Regarding rainfall today and types of rainfall. Showers vs. Storms, some strong due to wind gusts and frequent to excessive lightning. Big rainfall totals possible along and west of US1 toward the eastern interior of Central (Eastern Orange/Osceola Counties) as storms decay and slow in forward motion after 7:30pm

Sunset Last Night

TODAY: After what felt like a prelude to fall last night and early this morning over North Central and North Florida (Crestview got down to 62F this morning)....summer should retrograde back in to Central by early afternoon from the South and West.


Very warm to near record highs possible from Melbourne to Daytona before 3pm with highs in the mid-90Fs..although an upper 90F isn't out of the question toward the DAB airport.


FACTORS TODAY: 
1)Energy is approaching the state from the NNW out of Western GA and Eastern AL this morning. It is not forecast to quite reach Central, but could brush Daytona. Either way, it will provide lift as it approaches in the upper levels.  

2) Moisture will increase slowly in the mid levels from the south now down by Southern Brevard..it is in the process of doing so as of 11AM.  The surface front over N. Florida is washing out today so that mid level steering from the SW will be dictated more by high pressure over the SE Atlantic (which would bring Gulf moisture in from the SW) rather than from the continent. This should advect (bring in) more mid level moisture to roughly south of I-4. Instability is greatest over Central Florida running from Tampa to Cape Canaveral right now...and has been since sunrise, but covers a swath..mostly to the south..toward Vero Beach. This will mount during the day, since rain is expected later on the east side (mid-afternoon or a bit sooner).  


Interesting that, for 3 hours, latest ACTUALS are showing a band of good VGP ...in the low to mid levels..Vorticity Generation Potential. Vorticity will aid to stir things up...and then consider..in the upper levels as mentioned above some energy (vorticity) is coming down from the Deep South. Those factors, combined with coastal helicity (spin in a different plane / direction working with the vortictiy (spin) on a three dimensional cube...could add punch to thunderstorms right at the sea breeze collision as the west coast sea breeze works east during the early afternoon hours.

SEE TEXT

3) Jet stream winds are showing a bit of divergence after 7pm tonight over the North Half of the state reaching almost  toward Melbourne. This is in question though.

4) Delayed sea breeze expected north of Sebastian and should only make inland penetration to about as far west as I-95 or eastern Orange/Osceola Counties...or, only little sea breeze inland penetration until after 4pm...it could strengthen 'upriver' at that time through 6pm in Indian River and Brevard counties.


5) Lake Shadow  (mainly on the north side) and sea breeze conflicting with a gentle SW flow aloft could generate strong storms from Ft. Pierce to Vero..and possibly along the North side of Lake Okeechobee since this area is on the cusp of higher instability to the north.


These factors above should result in Eastward moving storms at 10mph; however, like always, any outflow boundary projected outward in any direction from a storm will aid in storm strength or growth elsewhere, accelerate the west coast seabreeze to the east...as well as completely scour out other areas from receiving rain. It's all in the additive timing factors and location of where these conjoin to make the strongest storms. 


I'd think at least one storm will cross to the barrier islands and out to sea by Daytona if they can get one up there..maybe a bit south of there...and off South Brevard/Ft Pierce area.  


SOUTHEAST FLORIDA: Do not believe SE Florida will see as much activity today. With an earlier sea breeze and still very unfavorable for storm formation as of 11AM. Even if it does recover quickly it might be too late for sea breeze/land breeze mergers to perform up to par, especially since the air is dry air behind the sea breeze. I was thinking SW Florida might get a good storm, but early activity over the keys and near that coast has resulted in a cirrus cap of clouds..so that chance may very well go to zero.


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Active days for Storms, mostly Near and North of Lake Okeechobee. Upper level temperatures, namely at 500mb (20,000ft) are forecast to be the coldest they have been since spring time..with readings around -7.5 to -9C  as opposed to -5 or -6C as it has been all summer.  However, with mid level temperatures also cool, storms could have an early onset as soon as the earlier sea breeze develops.  With that 'theory' showers might form along the east coast sea breeze east of I-95...and drift westward...then, as the west coast sea breeze works east..collisions could produce stronger storms in areas that haven't already been worked over. This activity should be able to press back to the east. 


This scenario seemed most likely early today to occur south of Daytona On Tuesday...but on Wednesday it is up and down the entire East Coast.  Far SE Florida (South of Boynton Beach) could have an early day storm..but the remainder of the day would be worked over for further storms as the east coast sea breeze progresses further from the coast in that location..and steering will be too weak to press activity back to the coast. But honestly, I haven't waited for morning model runs to come out that extend beyond 12 hours...so these two days will have to be reassessed in the morning, based on the trends over the course of two more runs between now and then (make that 3 more). This determination was made based on two consecutive runs of the NAM and GFS.


THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Thursday looks similar to Wednesday, but the cold air aloft starts to pull out by mid-afternoon...and greater inland east coast sea breeze is anticipated. But moisture over South Central to North Florida continues to increase...and steering becomes weaker. Friday is up for grabs as of this morning, but last I saw rain chances lowered most everywhere as drier air comes across from the Western Caribbean.


TROPICS: No worries for another 10 days...but one or more storms might be in the making during this time frame that will bear very close scrutiny considering we will be entering the peak of the hurricane season...as well as the fact that storms look  to form (if they do)...at a latitude far enough south that they would either go into Mexico/Yucatan..or threaten the US SE Coastal area or Eastern Gulf Coast region.
High Pressure over Texas...has been there all spring and summer so far, so peristence says..no hurricanes to make it north of far SW Texas or west of Baton Rouge.

Strong Storms Possible East Central Late Today

There is a chance of a repeat performance of yesterday with a few variations. Details are in the blog post below

TODAY: Quick post today ....in short, much of today is panning out to look like yesterday..with a small variation or two.


As expected, the surface front is beginning to, if not already, stall. It is shown with the yellow line across N. Florida. Expect a thermal heat trough to form this afternoon down the spine of the state..but more toward the east. This, in turn, will tend to back the surface winds from westerly to SSW if not S-SSE mainly north of West Palm Beach.  Therefore, it is possible that storms could be strongest as they approach and clear I95 toward the coast north of the Lake Okeechobee Shadow...with the winds backing...but not sure of just how much..it is a bit difficult to determine exactly which area will be in the shadow..but it appears that Martin County toward Ft. Pierce or just south of that area might be protected from heavy storms.


Otherwise, much of the state is coming out almost uniform in terms of instability...however, ALL of East Central (mainly South Central) is very capped off right now..this is expected to break after 1pm...and will mean a bit of a delay in storms to affect the area...until late afternoon.


With peak heating increasing dew point depressions..most activity crossing the state will be rain showers with some thunder other than over South Florida South of the Lake until after 4pm. Believe there too storms will strengthen to thunderstorms. The coolest mid-level temperatures are forecast to exist north of Lake Okeechobee as well. Therefore, with increasing helicity up the rivers mainly in Brevard/Indian River County...high CAPE...and the left exit region of the 200mb jet in the area...storms could be quite vigorous toward Mims/Titusville south to Port Canaveral and south yet again toward Vero Beach.  The best divergence seems to be setting up south of the Port though...so there to..some storms could be strong for another reason.

The strongest storms will be after 5pm (except South Florida), but inevitably...just exactly where that will be will depend on where outflow boundaries from showers to the west escalate the forward motion of the west coast sea breeze..and then interact with each other...eventually...as they approach the coast...the river upwinds will have an additional impact as the storms approach US1 mainly from Oak Hill and South Along A1A. Waterspouts could occur, mainly as storms cross A1A and exit into the ocean after 6pm.


Somewhere today, and I'm thinking Central Brevard toward Vero Beach...storms/rain will pile up ...as outflows from storms press back to the coast and meet the developing SW flow which will resume after 7pm. This is a bit questionable though..due to the more prevalent stronger steering which is assumed to occur today from that of yesterday. I'm not sold on it though at all at this point...and will ride with rains to last near the coast somewhere from the Cape and South to Ft Pierce tonight.


TROPICS: Only thing to consider other than  Tropical Storm Franklin which is by passing Bermuda is the last week of August. The Dry Air Pocket near the Great Antilles is filling up...and there is a train of what looks like developing wave all SOUTH of 10 degrees N. Latitude.  See the text...

AFTER TODAY: A variation of today is again in store, with more storms looking probable, strong along the east coast. Beyond Tuesday...more of the state will be favored for storms..with steering remaining toward the East Side but at a slower pace. By later in the week, most storms might be restricted to west of US1 or I-95 as the east coast sea breeze will develop by noon time or shortly thereafter and make greater inland penetration.

Strong/Marginally Severe Storms North and Portions of North Central Florida Today

There is a chance of very strong thunderstorms today with the only real hazard being excessive lightning, although wind gusts to 55-60mph could happen in storms North of Route 46 (Brevard to Seminole County). Tiny hail could occur in some storms..although nickel size is a small possibility in storms north of Daytona. More in today's write up. 

TODAY: This image above is the 500mb analysis at 8AM. Does not show much except where the southern extent of the upper level flow extends today by the solid black line. We see the radar overlay here too. Something is sparking  some thunderstorms SW of Pensacola, and that trigger device might work into North Central Florida later today. A stronger pocket of energy is expected further north into NE Florida later as well.  


Storms should start out by early afternoon over North Florida spreading east, and eventually over South Florida..but later..like yesterday there. Tampa Bay area will also get in on the act by 1pm.


HOT EAST SIDE TODAY NORTH OF VERO BEACH: Unusually hot once again as the theme has been with a delayed Sea breeze north of Vero Beach or Ft. Pierce with highs at the beaches in the mid-90Fs...if not warmer..with high dew points..Heat Indices (otherwise labelled as the 'feels like' temperature) will approach 105-112F..A1A north of Melbourne Beach). The most thermal  instability forecast by all models this morning is expected to exist across Central Florida today, with the most wind energy over North Central and North. Even at this early hour the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is up to 3500 J/KG which is approaching very unstable..these values reside just off shore both coasts but will fill across by noon. The mid levels are moderately unstable already in the same area...here is the RUC (the Rapid Update Cycle model) forecast for 2pm of the instability. The red (and the darker red)..is more and more unstable..decreasing to pale blue is barely unstable.

Forecast CAPE (available energy, the higher it is, the more unstable the atmosphere can become) for 2pm today. It is possible these values will be even higher than presented in the model. This has been the trend...but these look very reasonable. It is clear the most instability is over Central Florida and far South Florida by that hour (and near JAX).  More instability will work in across the Panhandle as well.

.
Rains, showers, and some thunder will work west to east across North Florida toward JAX and spread south with time toward Ormond Beach. Meanwhile, the east coast sea breeze is expected to develop first over South Florida and progress up the coast to near Port Canaveral by 2-3pm...but remain very close to the coast north of Vero Beach...especially in Brevard where it might not progress any further than US1 to I-95.


As storms (assuming they develop) approach from Inland Volusia/Osceola/Orange/Seminole Counties) and interact with the sea breeze south of Mims as they approach I-95. 


There could also be an up-river (from the south that is actually stronger than the sea breeze itself..as occurred yesterday)  component over Brevard County and into the Bight area of the Cape. 


If so, storms could be conditionally severe (based on that factor) near Titusville, Mims, Oak Hill, and Port Canaveral south to the 520 Cswy...additive factors similar migth play in around Ft Pierce, but not likely.   There is also the chance that, depending on the timing of storm activity further north..that outflows from those storms could press south to add yet one more variable into the quadratic equation of CAPE/Lifted Indices, sea breezes, and upper level divergence). That added penta-factor could result in a river or oceanspout...(waterspout) near the Merritt Island Wildlife Refuge/Port Canaveral/South Cocoa Beach...or just offshore further south toward Vero..but the further north..the more likely this possibility. For that to occur, though, the storm (if there is one) would have to form east of Orlando and move in after 5:30pm when the up-river wind is at its strongest.


The latest RUC forecast indicates there will be some divergence or weakening and simultaneous splitting of jet stream level winds later today. When this occurs way over head..storm tops can rise up through those splitting wind fields to greater height. This image might be a bit overdone..and believe this will more likely be the case either Monday or Tuesday...the waterspout potential..possibly more than teeny weeny..will be on Tuesday.:

BEYOND: Storm chances continue Monday - Thursday....with a variation to the theme each and every day. It is possible a sea breeze will not be realized on Monday almost anywhere..that will need to be reassessed in the morning on that day.  Otherwise, the GFS has flip flopped between different variations as Wednesday approaches...making wind fields for an early sea breeze from Wednesday and beyond, but maintaining a WSW to ENE flow aloft in the mid-upper levels. That could mean very late day storms again along the east coast..if they can make it that far. Most likely west of I-95 and decaying as they approach the coast.


The other factor to consider working into Tuesday is the amount of moisture available. The GFS was trying to bring a frontal boundary into South Central or even Far South Florida by Thursday..really taking the rain chances down due to dry air behind that boundary (no temperature effect). That seemed quite odd for August....as of 2AM it has now backed off..with only a day or two of drier air North of SR 50...Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday.  


Strong storms should again be possible toward the East Side of the state from Vero to Titusville on Tuesday...especially since a sea breeze is again expected to develop most everywhere...and upper level divergence as shown in the image above will be primed if all things pan out as depicted.


TROPICS: There are no tropical threats for quite some time to come...that is, until the next GFS comes out...kidding...the Saharan Air Layer (of dry air) is cascading off the West Coast of Africa like a dusty, dry waterfall. There were 2 areas of interest out there yesterday..but as of last night they looked all but gone. The Hurricane Center is still ogling  them though..but even still..the one that might form into a depression  looks destined to be casting nets and hooking bait east of Bermuda if it lasts that long.  The area of dry air circulating out there North of Puerto Rico and the Dominican is shrinking in size though as it only rotates in place, shifting a bit north and a bit south.


Surely anyone sailing out in that area toward the NW Coast of Africa, if this were the old days, would be suffering from the delusion known as 'calenture'. Back then, after months at sea they would begin to hallucinate upon day after day of clear but dusty/hazy/humid air...they'd see the green ocean waters as fields of grass...open, moist, lustrous, greeting pasture..and in their hysteria..would try to walk upon it. Man over board! I guess they'd end up in the sarcophagus if their bodies were ever retrieved in the days of King 'TUTT'...per archaeological digs.


The Tropical Upper Level Trough (TUTT) is closed off and filling closest to Florida as shown...but check out all the Sad and Loony Air (Saharan Air Layer personified) coming off African like the Niagara Dust Falls...wouldn't want to take a tour in a raincoat out there.

Good Rain Chances Today, Storms, Small Waterspout Chance East Side/Lake

See Captions: There is a very small chance of a waterspout today in the lavender areas through 1:30pm. The area toward the Cape looks primed for noon-2pm in terms of forecast RUC winds as of 10am, but clouds might all but remove that chance of even a rain shower until later..specifically watching from Ft. Pierce to Canaveral...ocean or rivers otherwise.

TODAY: Reversal of Fortune day at hand as the mid level ridge axis is retreating back to the west; however, matters are complicated a bit as it appears the eastern most portion is cutting off toward the Big Bend area. This has little impact other than to affect the already light steering currents and perhaps reduce rain chances for most of the western 1/2 of the Panhandle until late.


Elsewhere, the other problem is the persistent area of clouds where the blue question mark is shown. This was originally thought to be debris clouds from where the storms ended up and decayed last night (which was in the high prob of rain chances in yesterday's post...this materialized after 7pm in Polk County and toward the SW Coast).  That area seems to be eroding and should be all but gone by early afternoon, or simply decay and transition immediately into storms...but latest actuals is showing a weakly portrayed inverted upper level trough over this area. As such, it might act to either hinder storms here today due to the clouds if they persist or, if the clouds clear up, Enhance storms there late today (under the assumption this inverted trough is even still located there). None of the models have picked up on it..so believe it is just a remnant reflection of last night...be regardless..could have a big impact as a rain maker..especially early in the afternoon. If so, then outflows from those storms could send other storms off the coast from Ft Pierce to the Cape later in the afternoon.


Precipitable water values are mostly between 1.9 - 2.2" inches state wide except the extreme SE Coast of Florida. By day's end, expect to see values range from 2.0 - 2.4" inches.


Must emphasize that the higher concentrated areas of rainfall shown in red was just a 'pin the tail on the donkey...with great hesitation..he blindfoldly relates', as the eventual outcome will be a result of where outflow boundaries propagate and meet toward 7pm and the sun starts to set...that could be just about anywhere from JAX to Ft. Myers. By noon, along the east coast...winds should be very very light..with perhaps a bit of a southerly component up river and parallel to the coast, perhaps a bit from the SSW toward extreme Southeast Florida. Fter that time, sea breezes (if not sooner) will come into play and the games begin for bigger storms.  With winds just off the deck remaining from the SW (but light)..and above that near dead calm. Those are favorable winds for a waterspout (early) before outflow boundaries develop and clear out swathes of real estate (up to 60 miles across) from better rain chances. Thus, some areas will see no rain today as well.


Best chances for thunder to develop will be after 1pm, after which point OFBs (outflow boundaries) will propagate and develop storms downstream of them, although, some storms could remain nearly stationary that are at the tail end of those boundaries...a bit like at the 'pivot point'. These locations could receive over 1.5" of rain (all inland).


The best chance for strong/severe storms appears to be over NE Florida, but any outflow from a storm could produce wind gusts or straight-line persistent winds of 30-50mph...even in sunshine close to the near stationary storms that collapse. This occurred yesterday from a storm that produced some frequent lightning for about 10 minutes north of Deer Park yesterday. This image shows the rain column..yet the photo is taken in full sunshine. Winds at this time were about 35mph from the North.

This doesn't look like much...but right up that road is heavy rain, and lightning was coming from this storm. Shortly thereafter the storm collapsed and winds increased to 30-38mph for a brief spell.

So with that said above, it is understandable that exactly where it will or won't rain today is nearly impossible to determine. Most of the official forecasts have alluded to this fact. In turn, the Storm Prediction Center just basically said, 'forget it'  and spun the roulette wheel..apparently landing on a red-70 ..because they highlighted the entire spine of the state with a 70% chance of thunder today....that will not be the case entirely, but it gets the point across. Some storms could exit off either coast if formed along an outflow boundary as late as 9pm tonight almost anywhere (except in the Panhandle)...and SE Florida south of West Palm Beach (...again, later on today/tonight).
NOTE: Most models show nothing of the sort this hour..and seem to be focusing on the US1 to I95 corridor of Brevard into Osceola County from 3-7pm.


Coastal areas that do not receive rain today will get cloudy regardless by late afternoon due to high level cirrus and outflow midlevel cloudiness.


SATURDAY/WEDNESDAY: Good chance of thunderstorms each and every day developing late morning and lasting into the evening. Each day will be different in regard to where and when the best chances will be, but believe the strongest storms will mostly occur over the North Half of the state, whereas over the South Half there will be some other days when waterspouts could occur early in the day. On Sunday - Tuesday especially, storms will be able to exit off the east coast from mid-afternoon through early evening up and down US1...but believe South Of Lake Okeechobee will be 'worked over' prior to 6pm.


TROPICS: No concerns at this time as the first two entities out there (including Tropical Storm Franklin now already past Bermuda and moving away)..pose no threat. There is another disturbance that the GFS has been picking up though, and has tried from time to time to develop it into a hurricane. But conditions have never appeared favorable for such, and therefore believe its 2AM is closer to reality. A tropical depression forming near Puerto Rico...riding under (South) of a region of high pressure which I'm been dubbing the SAL High (Saharan Air Layer), which is decaying but has been rotating in place out there for several days now.


Expecting the pattern that has been in place for the past 2 months to remain in place with the high over Texas once again re-establishing UNTIL a significant change is manifested, and pictured for several model runs..always best to run with persistence in the long range until that time.  


With that said, a weaker system (depression vs. hurricane) could ride south of the high and be picked up by the next upper and mid level trough that will dip toward the East coast at some point...then..as that 'depression or storm' (for now at least)..encounters the trough..it is lifted northward as it approaches Florida...


Below is the latest GFS-cast of 2AM. This is BY NO MEANS what I expect to happen at this point..but it certainly looks more realistic than previous runs.

This images shows a LARGE depression over Florida NEXT Wednesday, August 23rd.
Again this is the time frame I've mentioned in several posts. This is not meant to be an 'alarmist' cast...just an 'alertistcast' for what may be. No evacuations would be necessary in this EXAMPLE.

HAPPY MEAL STORM came with a secret prize inside yesterday. This is located in Nowhere, Osceola County.

Similar to Thursday, Most Thunder Later/Inland North Half

Late Afternoon Thunderstorm Over the Osceola County Prairie. One strike narrowly missed the telecommunications tower located just above the wood fence post.  The cattle were loving these rains with quite a few lightning strikes late afternoon in this uninhabited area. But the strikes were short lived, and a gentle rain followed.

TODAY: The last of the mid-upper levels troughs has pulled out to the East of Florida, with only a weak surface trough remaining near the coast of North and Central Florida.  Meanwhile, the flattening (ballooning) of the high pressure heat wave ridge over Texas has definitely occurred, where temperatures in varies locations failed to reach the century mark in the Southern Plains yesterday for the first time in over a month, and thus what could have been a record stretch of 100-plus readings in some locations in Oklahoma. Rains also entered parts of the drought stricken Big Lone Star state. More will occur there today as well, but it appears they will be biding time with a return to drought like conditions in a day or so.


LOCALLY: ..meaning most of Florida in general. The impact of the flattening pattern other than the rain/heat reduction in some parts of Texas, is that it is pressing into Florida to a small degree toward the Big Bend from the West/WNW. Net result is the Western Panhandle toward the Big Bend should remain dry today.  Morning land breezes on both coasts will transition to sea breezes earliest over Southeast Florida and work north up the coast. Central will receive a light sea breeze remaining close to the coast between 11:30-12:30pm with NE Florida to follow suit in short order. This breeze on the east coast will become full fledged after 3 or 4pm as midlevel winds from the ENE strengthen at reach their peak (while the eastern pressing ridge will have reached it apex of eastern extent..which will be today).


The deepest moisture resides over South Florida this morning, but even still believe they will have a start to their activity similar in timing to yesterday. There might be some clouds in the area in the first part of the day..during which time the worked over atmosphere of yesterday will recover quickly toward noon with storms to follow shortly thereafter. These would send outflows north and westward  toward the Lake with activity working northward with time through early evening. Temperatures along either coast should not be as warm today but inland temperatures should be close to that of yesterday. NE Florida, especially just west of I-95 toward Tallahassee should be the real hot spot today. With high dewpoint temperatures still in place, heat indexes will be around 100F -105F today..with a few locations even higher.


*Side note: My place yesterday reached 99F degrees for about 10 minutes with a heat index of 113F, but that was only for about 10 minutes...and clouds soon followed coupled with the sea breeze around 2pm.


STORMS TODAY: Believe most rains over South Florida will be rain showers (some heavy) with only occasional lightning strikes. This activity will form minus the upward forcing mechanisms necessary to get storms to great height (that is to say, without a sea breeze convergence or much of a lake breeze). There could be one or maybe two fairly active, but short lived storms in South Florida. Also included in some of this activity will be the Florida Keys where very light winds could allow cloud lines to form almost directly over the Island Chain.


Most of the real thunder today will occur from 4pm and beyond toward the north side of Lake Okeechobee as outflows from the south interact with the lake breezes (as the east coast sea breeze should meet the west coast sea breeze east of Tampa and north...additional showers can form near that time along the West coast sea breeze as well as the east coast sea breeze west of I95 and increase in number.  The sea breezes should eventually meet toward the west half of the state after 6-7pm with the bigger activity from Western Orange County toward just east of Tampa Bay to include Polk/Lake County specifically. Other storms could approach Ocala National Forest, and perhaps as far east as Central Osceola County (briefly). The best chance of lingering rain showers appears will be over SW Florida and western portions of North Central.  Temperatures aloft today per forecast RUC soundings will be similar to days past...so no strong winds are anticipated until possibly late today into the early evening.  Storms should dwindle very rapidly after 9pm in those locations where any remaining, unturned over air remains and where a lake and outflow boundary can meet.

SATURDAY: Similar scenario, but with more moisture having worked in to North Florida as well, more of the state will receive some beneficial rainfall other than the immediate coasts. This will need to be more closely scrutinized in the morning. Saturday.  Storms again on Saturday will exhibit strength nature as those of the past few days with little change in upper level temperatures. That has been the theme this year (not unlike last year)...warm air aloft, but not too warm to inhibit storm formation.


SUNDAY/TUESDAY: These days look for more earlier in the day activity to begin toward the west side and south..and spread north and east during the mid afternoon. Perhaps all but the far east coast will have received rain by 4pm...with storms exiting off the east coast toward 4:30-6pm.


TROPICS: Two waves well east in the Atlantic are being monitored. Amazingly, the GFS (maybe not so amazingly) switched gears again and depicted a large land-falling hurricane in South Carolina in about 10 days or so..working right up the east coast to New York City. This is the only model showing anything close to this scenario to occur...with most others showing less development...and leaving that which does develop well out in the Atlantic. However, these waves do bear watching. The GFS has been very insistent on one of two scenarios heading toward the last week of August if not a bit sooner. That being that either : A) A weaker system, perhaps a depression, impact Florida with more concentrated, longer duration rainfall; B) A stronger storm moves toward Florida and curves NW-N either striking the coast or curving out to sea...ala 2010 Storms.  My own thoughts are that this could be a bit of a late season...lasting well into October. Still watching the Gulf of Mexico for Developments in that location eventually heading toward late September...

A Large Bolt of Lightning Had come down just milliseconds before this image was captured dead center, and not far away.... I really need to purchase a lightning grabber device..but that would require a better camera as well. Donations?

UPDATE TO: "Are You Ready?" Facts vs Fiction

GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SPELL GLOOM AND DOOM 5 DAYS OUT
AT LEAST...
CAN THEY REALLY BE THAT ACCURATE???
Not Likely...However, these tracks are alarming for Florida.
Can Central Florida (namely the east side)...Really Get a High End Category Storm though?
See the text below, From the Florida Emergency Management web site:




STORM TRACKS IN 1964:

Hurricane Igor 2010

"Brevard (or Indian River/St. Lucie/or even Volusia) will never be hit by a major hurricane "
There is an old "tall tale" that persists, and is believed by some, that
Brevard County (for instance)  will not be hit by a killer hurricane. The "tale" claims that
the Federal government located the space program at Cape Canaveral and KSC
because Brevard’s geographical characteristics and location made it immune
to hurricanes. 


I present these years. Cleo is of most interest because it most closely represents the current situation this morning that 'could' occur with Irene..Cleo was in 1964. It is interesting, as a friend pointed out, that Cleo was followed by DORA only a few weeks later...this came out when I pointed out that Cleo hit almost TO THE DAY in August that Irene Is expected. DORA took a very odd course..coming in from the East...and wouldn't you know..there's another storm abrewin' off of Africa this morning.


It is also worth noting that the worst drought in Texas History prior to the current one was generally 50 years ago...and as all droughts are caused by..high pressure that will not budge..that has been the case this year in the Southern Plains.  I am a firm believer in 20, 30. and 50 years weather cycles...addtio

"Are You Ready?" UPDATE: Fact vs. Fiction

nally, it was within the Cleo (during a La Nina) occurred...such is the case (or close to it)..at this time.


Emergency Management Web Site: 
Brevard County has been hit by major hurricanes in the past and it is only a matter of time when, not if, Brevard will be hit again. In 1871, 1880 and 1885 major hurricanes slammed into Brevard County, at and south of Cocoa Beach. The 1885 hurricane’s storm 
surge pushed the ocean over Cocoa Beach and into the Banana River, flooding
out homesteaders and discouraging further settlement. The beach near the
Canaveral Light House was so severely eroded, the government was prompted to
allot money to move the light house one mile west. Historical information
reported that the eye of a "terrible hurricane" took four hours to pass
northward over Eau Gallie in 1876. In 1873, a major hurricane exited Florida
near Melbourne. In 1928, a major hurricane caused heavy property damage from
South Brevard to St. Lucie County. In recent history, Hurricanes Donna in
1960, David in 1979 and Erin in 1995 proved again that Brevard was not
immune from hurricanes and the Andrew type "Big One" looms out there in our
future. Brevard’s population has exploded since the late 1800's, even since
Donna in 1960, and consequently, even a moderate storm will cause
considerable damage and danger to its citizens. 




Given that we are not entering the more 'tropically inclined' part of the Hurricane season, and there are storms out there (Irene) that could actually pose a threat (with more to come)it would seem appropriate a quick-n-dirty on most of what one needs to know (and then some) would be in order.


Note that only 2 other years (one being 2005) have had as many named systems this early in the season...


AS FOR IRENE: I'm willing to be that if there is only minor changes to the forecast track through Tuesday, the evacuations could be a very real possibility, namely because the uncertainty in strengthening is tremendous..with a Category 1 most likely, although the latest stats I've seen imply more like a Category 2. Even if it comes in over South Florida first it could strengthen over the Everglades/Lake Okeechobee area. That, plus a storm moving upriver...(upwind as used for thunderstorm discussions)..and strong category 1 hurricane could submerge the causeways...leaving the barrier islands land-locked. This would occur from the tremendous upriver surge of water upwelling combined with rainfall anticipated (if it tracks across Florida from the South)..could exceed 7-10" on the east coast.


On the other hand, if the storm is within, say perhaps 75 miles of the coast an north north west bound..who's to say it might not suddenly stall..loiter a while..then move ashore at any given location from Port Canaveral to Miami?...the risk is high...especially when considering were that the path of storm's preference, it could get stronger while off shore (One model shows a Catergory 5 hurricane in this instance..which likely could be tossed out..just like the ones showing nothing but a depression..if even that).


The special issue post will cover :
1. Some Basic Geography. Are you irritated when TV weathermen throw out latitude and longitude coordinates left and right as if we know where 10N Latitude actually Is?...or where are the Lesser Antilles, the Leeward and Windward Islands, (the U.S Virgin Islands fall in there somewhere right?), the Bay of Campeche (com-pay-che)...or the Greater Antilles? No fear ...it's all here.


2. Hurricane Preparedness: Be advised that most guidelines are prepared for the event of an evacuation due to either inland flooding depending on ones geographic location or coastal flooding due to the ocean's "Storm Surge".  But, even inland locations can succumb to long term power outages due to downed power lines. Where would you go if you live on or near the coast or what would you do if you have a pet?  What if you want to just avoid the whole mess no matter where you live, on the coast or inland?  Wouldn't it just be altogether best if no matter where you live to just leave the entire state (especially Florida) for the mountains of North Carolina with your family and pets (after boarding up the windows) and just forget the whole matter entirely? Probably, yes.


3. Mental preparation. NOW is the time to prepare mentally with the information provided in the back of your head..and to get at least your own tailored check list ready..or simply print this one out and add what ever other items happen to enter your head...whenever that might be. Just leave it on the kitchen counter and pencil things in as the urge strikes.  


First Geography:
I've added below a map of the Caribbean Sea...the island chains are noted on this map. No explanation required:

NOTE where the US/British Virgin Islands are located. The Leeward Islands are there, with the windward islands further South. Both the Leeward and Windward Islands make up the Lesser Antilles. The Greater Antilles (not often referred to) includes Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic/Haiti, and Cuba.

The West Indies are composed of the islands of the Caribbean Sea and can be
divided into the Greater Antilles and the Lesser Antilles.

The Greater Antilles are the four largest islands in the northwestern
portion of the Caribbean Sea and include Cuba, Hispaniola (Haiti and the
Dominican Republic), Jamaica, and Puerto Rico.

The Lesser Antilles include the smaller islands of the Caribbean - the
Virgin Islands and the Windward Islands and Leeward Islands.

The Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands are part of the Lesser Antilles
of the Caribbean Sea.

The Windward Islands are southeastern islands of the Caribbean and include
Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Grenada. They're
called the Windward Islands because they're exposed to the wind ("windward")
of the northeast trade winds (northeasterlies).

The Leeward Islands include the Virgin Islands, Dominica, Guadeloupe,
Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla. They're called
the Leeward Islands because they're away from the wind ("lee").


I also wanted to mention those 'coordinates'. Here's two things to remember...10N Latitude. Most storms that form along that line off of Africa are more likely to impact the U.S. than those that form north of it (but not always). Here is where that line is located, and it's relation to the islands mentioned above. I've also included some fictional sample storm plots as they related to that line, which is highlighted in yellow:

 Hurricane Preparedness:

Below is the checklist prepared by the National Hurricane Center. I will add a few items as well: Items 1 -3 and the 'preamble' are of my own, with reasons...but above all:


KEEP YOUR HEAD ABOUT YOU: Rumors run rampant as a storm approaches. People will say this and that about what they heard, think they heard, or claim to know. Trust only ONE reliable source..the National Hurricane Center and your Local National Weather Service Office. They will dispense the information you need to know...rumors can grow like an infectious disease...the rumor turns into a lie or gets over-exaggerated..so that by the time it has passed through the lips of 3 different people the story might be in no way related to the original.  Do not get caught in the HYPE ..the media is equally as guilty. Take care of your business, do what you need to do..and do it very timely. 


#1: Weather Radio with back up batteries! Nothing worse than NOT KNOWING WHAT IS GOING ON. These can be purchased at Wal-Mart, Publix, and Radio Shack to name a few.
I like the ones produced by a company called "MidLand" with the S.A.M.E. alert feature. Essentially, the feature after it is programmed (very simple)..will only sound alerts appropriate for your general or immediate area of residence.  Remember, this radio is good not only for hurricane season..but any other time as well when strong or severe thunderstorms (including tornadoes) are threatening. Additionally, if you are in the hurricane or storm area..the radio will sound tornado warning during the course of the hurricane. ..in fact, tornadoes can be spawned well removed from the Hurricane or tropical storm as was the case in Florida when Hurricane Agnes and Storm Earl hit the Florida panhandle...yet the tornadoes were over the peninsula.


#2: Plan ahead if you KNOW you will evacuate. If you plan on heading for a motel, make reservations at least 2-3 days IN ADVANCE. Also, leave AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. Otherwise, you could very end up in a huge traffic jam on I-95. Nothing like running out of gas THEN!
Also, contact several individuals to inform them on where you plan on going..and when you hope to be there. If possible, include a destination phone number. Find out if your motel (if so chosen) allows pets (if you have one)


#3: SAND BAGS if necessary. Depending on where you live such as in a very low area or on the ocean...a minimal storm could bring the ocean waves to the front door..or flooding low areas (as was the case after Hurricane Erin in the Melbourne, Fl area)..which happened the day AFTER the storm had passed.  If your area floods after a heavy rain event..imagine it 2 to 3 times worse. "It Could Happen Tomorrow".  


#4:  BOARDING FOR WINDOWS: Do you have the supplies at hand to board windows. Good window boarding supplies can come at a great cost as it becomes to be in high demand. Think about it. A lot of which windows to board depends on what direction the storm will approach and pass your area..and the same rule from one storm won't necessarily apply to another storm.

=========Official List Put out By The NHC===============(*with comments)
  
Water - at least 1 gallon daily per person for 3 to 7 days***It is also said to fill the bath tub with water...but I believe gallon jugs of water stored ahead of time is better
Food - at least enough for 3 to 7 days
— non-perishable packaged or canned food / juices/ jerky
— foods for infants or the elderly
— snack foods
— non-electric can opener— cooking tools / fuel (?) If you are a camper type..this might work. Learn to eat from a can is what I say. Besides..having fire starter items around is a major hassle and presents a fire hazard
— paper plates / plastic utensils  (I say, learn to eat from a can)
- EXTRA plastic bags for trash
Blankets / Pillows, etc.

Clothing - seasonal / rain gear/ sturdy shoes  (more than 1 pair!)

First Aid Kit / Medicines / Prescription Drugs

Special Items - for babies and the elderly

Toiletries / Hygiene items / Moisture wipes

Flashlight / Batteries

Radio - Battery operated and NOAA weather radio!!

Telephones - Fully charged cell phone with extra battery and a traditional
(not cordless) telephone set

Cash (with some small bills) and Credit Cards - Banks and ATMs may not be
available for extended periods

Keys

Toys, Books and Games

Important documents - in a waterproof container or watertight resealable
plastic bag
— insurance, medical records, bank account numbers, Social Security card,
etc.

Tools - keep a set with you during the storm

Vehicle fuel tanks filled

Pet care items
— proper identification / immunization records / medications
— ample supply of food and water
— a carrier or cage
— muzzle and leash





Can you think of anything else? Again..at least have this list in mind....
Personally, I began saving canned goods whenever they were on sale a few months ago..they can always be consumed later even if no evacuation or power failure ensues/occurs...no harm done:

Canned Goods can include fruits, vegetables, and meats like tuna and chicken. Also peanut butter eaten right from the spoon if no bread is available will work and won't go bad after opening.

I think this image is overly kind for a Cat 3 hurricane and above. Anyone outside reporting in those winds would NOT be standing unless in a sheltered area...they also forgot to include the flying debris that might whack the broadcaster on the head like a Coconut Head Bonk on the Bean, or a Trash Can Lid Instant Head Decapitation. Even in a Cat 1 I don't think the makeup would last long on her face. A Forced Evacuation can happen for even only a Cat 1 Hurricane depending on the geography of the coast in relation to what approach the storm will make.

Very few deaths occur during a big storm from drownings in the ocean..but it does happen. Beware..even when a storm is well offshore rip currents can be treacherous beyond belief. You only have to take one look at the ocean to know it is just plain ridiculous to venture into the water...it's the "Victory at Sea" - Epitome

Showery With Some Storms South Florida, Early to Late Evening Possible East Side of State Late/Tonight

Very difficult forecast today as we transition OUT of a pattern. Deepest Moisture is over South Florida at time as surface to upper level troughs linger later today just off the entire East Coast

TODAY: Hot North Central to North East Florida. Today is the day the water balloon of high pressure over Texas is being flattened from storms systems riding over its top...it is spreading outward west and east into Florida and a bit into New Mexico. Net result is warm air on the wings of westerly winds for higher than normal temperatures for August due to lack of cloud cover by late morning through peak heating . The east coast sea breeze is expected to develop...but perhaps fairly late today after peak heating which should allow the temperature to reach near record highs from JAX to MLB. Most of those highs will likely be realized though in locations where official observation points are not located (near A1A)..so we might never know. Mid 90Fs should be the norm..with upper 90Fs in many locations. South Florida might become quite warm as well with the lack of a seabreeze and a small delay in showers toward the east side (later than yesterday)..but records are not expected.


RAINS TODAY: Showers have gone up early off the tip of SE Florida as shown in this recent radar image. Those showers are moving slowly off to the east.  Further north, a pocket of mid level moisture resides over East Central Florida as noted by the fog report at Daytona and near foggy conditions at Canaveral. A RARITY for August at the beach! More anomalies abound as has been the case all summer.


The best chances for rain today are all along and south (east to west) of Lake Okeechobee..from near West Palm to Port Charolette where the high PWAT (precipitable water) resides at and over 2". Moisture decreases the further north one goes. South Florida is capped only at the low levels this morning..so with some day time heating the wheels should be set in motion for another day like the past several....as has been noted, South Florida recovers very quickly..or at least, that has been the ongoing theme all summer.


The trend in this pattern has been for each subsequent day to exhibit less lightning..so believe this will again be the case today over South Florida.  The keys have some showers now..and could again see some storms today, however, any storms further to their north could spread high anvil clouds south and shut the keys down by late afternoon. Storm motion should be west to east over South Florida at 10-13mph.  The only fly in the ointment would be if, like yesterday, activity over SW Florida sends out an outflow boundary eastward. This would progress storm motion coupled with forward motion propagation..leading to shower/storm activity over-running itself. Thus, that would account for lack of significant storm development..as storms over-run before getting well formed. The best chances for lightning in that case, and as pictured above, will be along the west and east coasts. No sea breeze is expected over South Florida today.


CENTRAL/NORTH FLORIDA: CONDITIONAL on forward (eastward) motion of the Mid-and upper level troughs now departing. Last night a generous lightning storm moved SSE from St. Augustine to Daytona...this was in a area depicted to be of much lower PWAT air, due to a dry slot in the mid-levels. This activity was likely instigated by a mid-level vort max rotating through the mid-level trough as it pulled offshore.  IF that trough moves very little...or in fact remains nearly in place today just off shore (but a bit further south)...moisture could 'pool' near the base of the trough. A sea breeze is expected today as noted in the previous paragraph...with a deeper westerly flow at the surface..and moisture convergence would superficially rise the low level PWAT air due to moisture convergence very close to the St. Johns River and south..just west of I-95 toward Vero Beach. With that in mind, moisture convergence/sea breeze convergence storms could form on the east side of the state after 4pm (especially South of SR 50) in Brevard County to Vero Beach.  Further northward progression of isolated storms is also possible as noted in the image.  Much of this is 'conditional' as stated and might not ever materialize at all. 


 This overall forecast portion is based on two consecutive runs of the NAM model (Not Always Manifested)..as has been the case all summer.  However, latest RUC runs (Run Under Cover) are showing storms to form between 4-5 pm and last until well after dark almost right over the coastal area of Brevard (and nothing further north). The 2AM run of the GFS...the Goofus...hasn't been so goofy this year at all except in long range tropical outlooks, as would be expected well out in time.  In looking at the Going For Something 2am run..it is running close to the earlier NAM runs..with showers/storms as shown..so I've included this area as shown in the image.


FRIDAY: Much of the same pattern, but less of it even more so...and activity should be much further west late in the day...but I'm not fully sold. The GFS has been less aggressive with the extent of the ballooning high pressure from Texas to affect Florida in the latest 2 runs. I also definitely recall another point in time when it over forecast this to occur..and what was to be a long duration dry spell for Central and North Florida amounted to maybe 2 days....Shower activity over the Keys looks to continue..with less activity over South Florida except SW Florida..but with sea breezes at play from both coasts...as well as likely a Lake breeze as the gradient decreases..Okeechobee County and the east side of the Lake toward interior Palm Beach and Martin Counties might also get in on some rainfall. Another hot day to start..but believe sea breezes will play a big factor further north late in the day..just exactly where will have to be determined tomorrow morning. My guess is that it will be more toward the interior of West Central in toward Orlando and Central Osceola County...near Kissimmee or just to the east of that location.


SAT/TUESDAY: Transition back to a modification of the last 4 days. The only difference this go around is that the mid-upper level troughs are not expected to dig as far south  this go around. Even that will have to be reassessed..although last time (for the past several days) the GFS had a good handle on the evolution of what eventually transpired.


Net affect with the above given, SW-W flow will develop, but since the steering troughs will not be as deeply entrenched, the winds aloft should be a bit lighter, allowing for development on most days of an east coast sea breeze. Sunday through Tuesday are shown for afternoon storms to development along these sea breezes and shift off the east coast mid-late afternoon to early evening. Since these troughs will not be as entrenched..and no tropical moisture is looming to the south, South Florida might not be fully into the playing fields for bigger rains... dependent more on moisture convergence associated with Lake and Sea breezes...combined with outflow interactions.


TROPICS: Beyond Tuesday or Wednesday...much of Florida's weather appears will be dependent on the extent of the high pressure over Texas. For now, I'm riding with PERSISTENCE..and that high over TEXAS has been persistent since early spring. Until we see the writing ON THE WALL..see no reason to deviate, even though the GFS is trying to weaken it and bring tropical entities this way...it has done that in the past all summer...so why should it be any different next week? 


With that...it is more likely that the trough over Florida and the SE states will persist...with storms possible over the interior and toward the East side through Friday of next week...although that might be stretching it.  


The run of the 2pm GFS last night showed 2 tropical Storms or perhaps Hurricanes to affect Florida either directly or indirectly in about 12 days, but..in 6 hours..those were all but completely gone. The next run was showing a tropical wave to affect the state late next week.......which is dwindled down from two tropical waves on the 8pm run to one wave on the 2am run early this morning at 2am . Thus, the trend has been to weaken the high over Texas..and shift Florida into a tropical, showery regime at some point in time later this month. I mention this because sooner or later..this regime is likely to come into play...I'd be watching the last week of August time frame..or anytime after the 23rd for a big change, since climatologically this is when Central Florida starts to wane on day to day storm activity to a very small degree. But on the other hand..and has been mentioned time and time again in previous posts since spring..this year has been anything BUT climatological~!