"The Chainsaw Massacre" Begins Irene's Downgrade - "Florida Antics Part Deux"?

TROPICAL STORM IRENE NOT LOOKING SO "TROPICAL"
- DRAINED HER PURSE IN MANHATTAN 

SYNOPSIS/SCOPE/GENERAL OVERVIEW:  "Synopsis" is the meteorologically preferred term for "here's what's happening around a big area at many levels of the atmosphere"... Synopsis takes up less key strokes. 


Tropical Storm Irene is looking very extratropical this morning as it continues to get absorbed into the troughs/front along the eastern seaboard. The 'Storm' continues to move NNE-NE and should clear NYC shortly. Irene likely encoutered the 30-50kts of shear I was seeing yesterday along the PA/NY border. Clean up time begins where electricity as gas supplies allow. Rev'n up the chain saws and generators while rainfall in what I'd guess varies from 6 "-16" soak already moisture laden soil,  flooding streets, swelling rivers, and turning basements into swimming pools ..awful stuff to mess with. But don't forget, it still has New England to reign...but Irene is handing over the crown..(see Tropics). Folks well up in New England will have their fair share of high rainfall totals, flooding, beach erosion, and downed trees (power outages).

LOCALLY:  Tough forecast. It would be very easy to write for all intensive purposes that there is a very low chance of rain today.  The atmosphere in the mid-levels is quite dry, winds are unidirectional, possibly no sea breeze. How could it rain today!!? 


Yet, there has been persistent showers and storms well out west in the Gulf along an axis of sorts that has been regenerating heavy showers near the Tampa Area to just offshore. There is some big ones way out in the Gulf along this axis.  Thus, we present DOOR NUMBER !.


DOOR #1: Mostly dry, hot with highs in the mid-upper 90Fs (mainly NE Florida/I 10)...fast moving isolated , small showers maybe becoming thunder after moving off shore from St. Augustine to Miami, but the best chance of rain being South Florida in Broward, Dade, Martin, and Southern Palm Beach County later far East Central IBrevard). 


Could leave it at that, and perhaps should. But being curious as a cat:


DOOR #2:  Then again...some pictures might help in vying for another option. Using some current conditions and extrapolating these conditions with future projections of the trough associated with Irene...there is a bit of a hypothetical/conditional chance of a much broader expanse of showers and some thunder with the help of a little pro-active imagination....

700MB (Roughly 10,000 feet above):

700 mb (10,000ft) Analysis reveals best moisture far South Florida (green line and south). Note  several weak troughs (blue) embedded in the mean flow...these are all part of a MUCH larger trough extending down the East Coast from Irene...and on into the NW Caribbean.

The mean (main) trough is shown by the one black solid line (above). This could buckle as Irene moves away...allowing that moisture over far South Florida (Green Line)..to work northward. Vorticity (energy) is also associated with these troughs.

INSTABILITY:

Moderate instability exists way out in the GULF (orange, note values in the 4000 range)...for comparison, we never see much more than 500 in the winter, even with severe weather . And the higher the better (for active weather).  These values are constantly being transported over the peninsula south of the mid-level mean trough axis and jet level axis as well.

So, there is possible mid-level moisture transport northward as Irene also lifts north as shown in the first image (remember, they are both to be within the same broader scheme trough up and down the east coast). There is also some moderate instability on a train track from the Gulf across the state...but the mid-level is still going to be a bit dry even if it can work north to I-4 by late today.  

THEN THERE IS THE JET STREAM:

See captions:  Blue is the jet stream level trough. The troughs aloft are in roughly the same location. Winds of 35 kts on the jet which for summer is not shabby in Florida.  As the trough approaches just a bit more today, forecasts show the winds increasing another 10 kts..especially over  Central Florida, but divergence (purple lines)..also increases. No divergence was analyzed at the time I saved the image other than west of the Keys. Watching the area between the two (three) purple arrows) cartooned in...where divergence could form , aiding in upward lift from the mid-levels. Note the black arrow along the east coast.

DOOR #2
1. Possible mid-level northward transport of moisture from South Florida as Irene lifts North
2. Continuous stream of moderate instability, advected by prevailing WSW winds at nearly all levels
3. Divergent jet stream aloft;
4. And, just maybe..a side shore/river upwind component at the surface along the east coast as the pressure gradient just above the surface decreases (which allows the sea breeze to try to develop). However, I do not believe this will be a sea breeze (but could be in part, especially far SE Florida), rather a moniker.


 When added, the vectors of a SE Sea-breeze with the decreasing 2000ft wind vector magnitude...which should weaken today...the sum of the vectors..which are indicated by an arrow of direction AND strength..adds up to a South to SSE winds..see black arrow in image above. 

DOOR #2  - "Sum Total of all the Parts" Visualization:

See Captions: Note the blue area up and down the west coast...I added the brighter blue one. This is low level moisture convergence which means little now. But as the day wears on..the mass convergence ..like water backing up against a dam..could climb the wall and become DEEP moisture convergence...and when or IF the damn breaks..abetted by the assumption that moisture will work up from the south...the result would be showers. Add that vector in (shown in black again)...with divergent flow aloft, PLUS the instability...we have showers and thunder..mainly East of I-95 north of Ft. Pierce to near South Volusia.  If this does occur, outflows could extend showers near the coast up to at least St. Augustine..with thunder as well (not shown here) to DAB.

REALIZING: The Above extrapolation into the future, if even one of the fictional factors does not fall into place, much of what is depicted in the image will not transpire. On the other hand, if they come together, along with some upper level energy which will be a given considering that something is driving those showers with some thunder to form near Tampa (they can be seen in this image..it has a radar over lay in it)...rain fall chances could go from 20-30 percent to 50-60 percent. with thunder in orange as well as shown.

IN SUMMARY:  "A word of the wises; Be prepared for Surprises"

TROPICS: Enough already. Moving on.  No way, Jose! Yes, Tropical Storm Jose was crowned heir to Irene..or rather..they share. Irene 's not going down easy! (just ask someone in New England today).... Queen?,  New 'England'?..Hmm, ...  The storm is not all so far from Bermuda actually, but it does not appear it will do all that much. Not a US (U.S.) threat.  Watching two big areas:


1. The western and central Caribbean into the Southern Gulf and the Bay of Campeche
2. A newer area that has emerged off the coast of Africa.


Neither area poses a threat, but both hold potential. Recall, the Gulf has been capped and heated since early spring. The problem therein though lies, is that that was likely the onset of the High Pressure over Texas. Thus, any development into the SW Gulf would head toward Brownsville or South..unless it can form south and east of the Mississippi River. Jamaica could be under the gun from several tropical waves though..and maybe a depression could emerge off the western tip of Cuba in the next week.


The next name storm is eerily, KATIA. (hmm...they really should have thought that one through).

SAL (Saharan Air Layer) shows much LESS reds and oranges than 10 days ago. Note that big white area coming off Africa..with little to zero dry air ahead of its westward motion. Also note, I'm detecting a weakly cyclonic circulation in the makings in the Bay of Campeche toward Jamaica...additionally, the base of the previously mentioned trough extending from Irene bottoms out SOUTH of the Florida Panhandle. You can see the thunder activity out there in this image. Central Florida lies along that same mid-level sector today (Sunday)...could that act as an impetus for showers and storms today and especially Monday/Tuesday time frame?  

  

'Queen of Mean' Irene Backlashes Mid-Atlantic - Florida Toasts

ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGE OF IRENE SUPERIMPOSED WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGE (the reds/oranges/yellows are dry air). Not the abrupt change in dry to moist along the far north side of Irene's "Kingdom")

TODAY: There's no escaping the information related to Hurricane Irene today when turning on the TV. Folks along the Mid-Atlantic Coast through New England are hopefully prepared for what extremely heavy rainfall combined with strong wind, beach erosion, flooding, and power outages, and storm surge offers in their respective areas. The bathymetry of coastal inlets, outlets, bays, points, and islands will have everything to do with which locations are most heavily impacted by storm surge and direct wind. Either way, the rainfall totals will ultimately be highest where the combination of razor sharp  rain streaks occur repeatedly over the same areas - combined with the persistent, broad scale rain shield.  I would not be surprised to see rainfall totals higher than current estimates, especially heading into coastal New England and over and down toward Baltimore Harbor...as Irene will be merging with the frontal boundary and mid-level trough. Those effects have yet to be realized at this point.    The saving grace for residents further inland at this point is that the current track and forecast (as depicted)..is toward the NNE. But for residents in New England it spells "A-B-I-G-D-E-A-L".


LOCALLY: The peripheral effects of Irene are still being sensed over Florida, which is still encased within the broader mid and upper level circulations of Irene's Storm Machine System.  Wind today will remain W-WSW...with high temperatures in the mid-upper 90Fs and high dew-points resulting in heat indices in the 105-115F range if not much higher.(per the officials, the 115F is the writers own doing). 


Personally thinking that along the east side of the state, especially East Central to NE Florida  could well see temperatures over 100F. Anticipating possibly seeing the thermometer warmer than I have ever (that is 101F). Dew-points will be running high as well. The saving grace, it looks a bit 'milky' out there at my place...very thin cirrus could preclude the record break. Believe Vero Beach stands the best chance of seeing an official record be broken at a reporting station...but far and wide, other records could go down..DAB in second perhaps. 


The heat and moisture (at the lowest level), especially over North Central, are reflected well by the instability of the atmosphere which at this moment (analyzed) and later today (forecast) will be extreme, with Convective Available Potential Energy approaching 7000 j2kg2 units and lifted indices nearly -9C. This is extremely unstable..but its usage, if any, is conditional. Temperatures above that layer are not all that cold. If there is no trigger to set the energy off...it's just a powder keg without a match. That will be the case today.  There are some matches within striking distance indicated  on model guidance though (vorticity) ...but even so, with temperatures aloft being only marginally accommodating  precipitation today will be in isolated pockets if it is to occur at all (it is in isolated fashion over South Florida and parts of the Keys right now since some cool air aloft is present).     


The best chance of rain/thunder today is where both moisture in the mid and lower levels can be in place exactly coincident at the time some upper level energy passes over head. Timing of BOTH of these factors is sporadic, and guidance is nearly useless since with ever hourly run the two factors shift around in both location and amount. Thus, it's best to run with low end rain chances..but some folks will likely get wet today. 


The graphic depicts the most likely areas this might transpire any time over South Florida from the  current time and further north heading into the afternoon through dark. Both areas should dry out sufficiently aloft for no rain chance after sunset.

A Shower could occur any where to the south (right) of the green arrow. Thunder could occur South Florida earlier as some remaining cool air aloft is in place. That is forecast to pull out by mid afternoon; however, I've observed bad track records in guidance in regard to arrival and departure of temperature aloft variations. Also shown here, is a batch of showers and thunderstorms that pulled off the East Coast early this morning which are associated with a moisture pocket and energy. Most of this formed off shore. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY: These two days look quite similar, but moisture will increase a bit. Do not expect it will be quite as hot  because there should be more cumulus clouds in the sky to offset any prolonged direct, unadulterated sun beams striking earth.  There is a better chance of rain over the East Half of the state from mainly DAB and south..but JAX area could get in on the game as well.  Most (but not all) activity will form toward the Eastern Interior and move well offshore...most thunder should not occur until this activity has moved offshore, but that is not set in stone.


TUESDAY: Irene's impacts and her 'territory' of bizarre August weather will lose its reign since the storm will now be north of the lower 48. Moving on to conquer new land.  Sea breezes should form by noon but remain fairly close to the coast. Temperatures return to seasonable norms as does thunderstorm coverage. Some storms on Tuesday could be "strong' in anticipation of a departing jet stream streak of winds well overhead aiding in upper level lift combined with sea breeze convergence in the low leve near the east coast  sea breeze boundary.  


WEDNESDAY/FRIDAY: The trough of low pressure that is located north of the state and across the Deep South today will have sunk south and  be broken off, drifting into the North Central Gulf, as high pressure builds in from the west behind it.  Although very diffuse, this boundary could act as a source of mid-level moisture convergence across much of the state.  Winds resume an easterly component but become quite light both aloft and at the ground. One could argue for late morning to noon time showers/thunder near the east coast working west during the afternoon...with more showers possible close to where the trough is hung up, which appears will be close to dead central. The pattern described above might wash out by Friday, by which point we've reached the end of model reliability.


TROPICS: Watching in days to come both the Gulf and Atlantic.  Already indicated, potential for low latitude tropical waves to pass well south of the state through the Western Caribbean  toward the Yucatan. ..keeping in mind...believe that although the cut off 700mb trough mentioned previously over the Gulf might not be depicted in models, experience says that energy associated with it will linger and wait for something to trigger upon...at which point it will be revealed. 


Thus, watch the Gulf and the Bay of Campeche (where the first action could occur).  Also watching the Atlantic along the remnant boundary to  ignite as either a tropical or sub-tropical system as well.  What else could be  rolling across the Atlantic from a tropical wave that rolls of  near the Cape Verdes, abetted by the West African Jet?  Peak of Hurricane Season time.  

Pre-Irene. Two Sky Lords Converse 

Irene's Darkest Hours To Shine Over the Weekend While Florida Bastes

GENERAL TRACK OF IRENE SINCE THURSDAY. Only a small chance of rain in Florida today as shown. Anything other than a shower (and maybe even thunder), could occur  mainly NE Central very late today if a vorticity lobe rotates around Irene in the mid-levels and interacts with the remnant moisture remaining in this location. It may simply prolong the cloud cover though. 

TODAY: Hurricane Irene remains a Cat 2 hurricane as of noon today with winds around 90 Kts or in the 105 - 110mph range.  No longer forecast to become a Major Hurricane, which will not make much of a difference to anyone in the path .  Little change in strength is anticipated as the storm approaches the coast of North Carolina with passport already in spiral band for the Canadian Border by sometime Monday. Recovery efforts in Florida are underway as residents put umbrellas back in the rack (some were never required). Surfs up, for a while longer. The waves came up pretty high and across white,virgin refurbishment sand in Canaveral but never quite got up to the steps in the refurbishment zone. In a sense, it was costly damage, considering the man-hours spent to get the sand there in the first place.


Warnings are going are up as hurricane warning flags are hoisted  toward North Carolina and Virginia with more on the way up the coast as residents prepare for extremely heavy rainfall, strong winds (naturally), and torrential as well as prolonged rainfall , and beach erosion issues. This storm could go down in the Books a "Big" one in terms of cost. If folks are wise, few lives will be lost.    "Ive Seen Irene, I 've Met my Maker"...does not apply.


The storm will be meeting up with a mid-low level trough axis and become entwined partially with it. Between those two forces Irene will be abetted with its partner in Meteorological Warfare to continue her 'reigns' across the Eastern seaboard and adjacent Atlantic waters. Severe erosion, damaging winds to ocean fronts and other areas to a lesser degree, and widespread power outages due to downed trees (rooted in already very moist soil from rains in previous days) and flat out wind strength, as well as flooding caused merely by the rainfall totals will deal a  1-2-3-4 punch.

LOCALLY: After the above, it is a bit hard to find anything worth noting for this Friday in Florida.  It is all explained in the above image. Irene is moving away. There is still some energy rotating around the storm, and Florida remains joined at the hip with the system in the mid-levels. Any  mid-level energy to rotate around the storm has the potential to initiate rain or even thunder.  So, I checked out the possibilities. There is a vort (vorticity) lobe up north and some good cloud and rain cover associated with it. Timing would bring it in very late today or into tonight. It seems to be located in the red box, and timing brings it to East Central and NE Florida late today based on satellite animation. Otherwise, most of the area will be rain free with only a few light drops.  Do not believe, if it does rain, it will have anything to do with heating or instability (which is there)...but will be solely driven by corkscrewing rotation in the sky passing overhead...but wouldn't by pass plans based on this notion. More of a 'heads up, you never know' thing here today.


WEEKEND WEATHER: Looks to be breezy during the afternoons and very warm. Record or near record highs are possible, mainly in NE Florida but the areas along A1A that would normally receive a sea breeze are likely to set new records or come close as WSW of 10-20mph porevail. ...lighter evening and over night  


As noted before, we will never know the true extent of the warmth..because there are no official reporting stations along A1A other than Patrick AFB. Either way, expecting highs in the mid 90Fs most everywhere, maybe some upper 90Fs, and perhaps JAX can crack 100F. Numerical guidance I do not believe is quite on the bandwagon from what I've read, but either way it will be warm and mostly dry. So in that regard, heat indices (the 'feels like temperature') won't be all so bad.  Any extra moisture though than is currently indicated could give rise to a rain shower almost anywhere from late morning toward evening. Will have to keep tabs on this though..because even more moisture could result in thunder.


MONDAY/TUESDAY: Irene will be departing after peaking over a Niagra Falls (eh..?)  and leaving a long trough down the U.S. East Side ..east of the Mississippi. Thus, all of these states will be indirectly impacted by the remnant trough in some form or another through Tuesday when it finally starts to break down.  I'm thinking it will leave a weak mid-level  circulation in place for some time to come..even as the lower levels adjusts.  Sea breezes possibly Monday close to the coast and thunder..same with Tuesday.


BEYOND: Going pretty far out in time now, but it looks like thunder will continue ..favoring interior and the west side for a day or two..after which point we are already a week out .


LONG RANGE: Watching the Gulf of Mexico, western near shore Atlantic, Bay of Campeche, and western Caribbean for potential tropical development. Indications are that the remnant trough of Irene could lay dormant across the Deep South, Florida, and the northern Gulf for a while. These boundaries are perfect ammo for future tropical cyclone development. Almost forgot, there is a depression well out in the Atlantic, but that one seems to have signed its own Death Certificate...waiting for processing.

Queen Irene To Reign Supreme With A Mean Scepter

Without evening having to be seen on satellite Imagery, Showers and Gusty Squalls
Are Working From South To North. First Bigger Rains Have Already Occurred As Far North As Sebastian Inlet

QUICK UPDATE: Rains are appearing on the Melbourne radar like magic as the "Queen Bee of The Seas", Miss Major Hurricane Irene, moves NNW. In this direction of motion, the storm is essentially paralleling the Florida Coast. Currently, the center of circulation appears to be off shore Dade County. The storm is moving NNW at an average of 10-13mph and this motion is expected to continue through the evening hours. At this pace, and given the showers still over South Florida with Irene getting a bit more organized on satellite imagery, South Central to North Central Florida could have a rain chance in place through dinner time Thursday.  It is likely there could be a big lull in the action from time to time.


Winds this afternoon and tonight at all times will be strongest right on the sea shore and along the intracoastal waterways. 


TAKE CAUTION... when driving to or from one Barrier Island to the next, especially while crossing the bridges. Winds could be stronger at that slightly higher altitude...and they will be cross winds.


Although rain, some heavy at times, seems fairly likely at this point given what has already transpired further south, it will not be a continuous rain...or so it seems...nor will it occur everywhere.


The Wind could gust over 40mph easily in the showers, especially during the first line or two that moves through...before dark today. These showers and squalls will have the added benefit of heated air below to rush winds to the ground. Gusts right on the beach, in locations along A1A particularly in wind tunnels created by tall condominiums could reach tropical storm force but generally will be in the 35-40mph range.  I suspect that after dark the winds at  the times of rain will not be as strong on a consistent basis, but rather will be reserved for only the most deviou,s heavier, and much more isolated activity that might happen to rotate around the crown of Irene to the shore. As you can see below, The Queens Troops are marching in toward the coast ..rotating into mainly South Central At this time..but each pass of the wand will yield fresh recruits.

RADAR SAMPLE FROM 3:45pm 8/25/20011. Melbourne Radar.

At this time, it appears the rains will cease to exist first over SE Florida..working north with time. With the last of the rain over for good over Far East Central sometime between 2pm -8pm Thursday..although, it could be actually much sooner. It is hard to say, since it is also hard to say how much development Irene will take on. Winds will also back from NNE to N to eventually NNW-NW later today through tomorrow as Irene Careens on through and heads toward the North/South Carolina Border Area.


On up the line, Irene will get involved with a trough, resulting in heavy rain storms along the entire Eastern Sea Board from  NE South Carolina to Maine, gradually weakening with time. It looks like the heaviest combination of wind and rain will occur in North Carolina into Eastern Virginia and toward the Baltimore Area. Beyond that time, Irene will lose, to a small degree, pure tropical characteristics as it interacts with the frontal boundary, but nonetheless remain a wind and rain maker clear up to the Canadian Border.


Irene is taking a similar track to that of Hurricane Gloria in 1985.

Whirligig Antics Wrack Ideas of Iconic Irene (In Short Term Models)

Sunrise Reveals. Note the lack of a well defined eye. There was an eyewall replacement
early this morning.  Irene needs Visine!

***For local information pertinent to your area of interest please refer to the services of the National Weather Service. For individuals living south of Fort Pierce that would be the office out of Miami. From Ft. Pierce (St. Lucie County and north through Volusia)..that is the office located in Melbourne. North of Volusia County (Flagler)..visit the website for the office in Jacksonville, Florida. All information contained herein is both speculative combined with factual. Approach with care****

I suppose it goes without saying that all in the know are interested in what Irene is up to...for the latest on a timely basis refer to the above. If out and about, and one is available, take along a NOAA weather radio or the equivalent.


OVERNIGHT: Irene was a little irresponsible overnight. The storm underwent an eye-wall replacement cycle..A bit like a ripple running up and out through the eye-wall. During that time of steady state equilibrium the storm wobble a bit to the the west.  In response, two models and too a smaller degree a third, happened to be updating. The result in those models was an entirely new track for the storm. They read into this as weakening above all else ...and thus.. altered Irene's future track. To some that ended up close to the Florida east coast as a tropical storm.  But the official forecast holds firm from the Hurricane Center, albeit just a bit to the west because of the wobble. But like was mentioned yesterday, every mile counts. More in a moment.


TODAY: Moisture convergence is piling up along the Florida East Coast as the up tick in surface winds occurs because of the sunrise concurrent with the closer proximity of Irene 's outer circulation.  In turn, it is POSSIBLE that rains could really pick up...all along the Florida East Coast between 9AM through 11AM. From south to north. The northern most areas  are most questionable though.


Here is what I'm seeing, but the proof is not yet in the pudding from what current radar is showing other than for South Florida...so far:

It is hard to say for sure if rains will develop this rapidly, but all short term models seem to be picking up on it. The mid-and long rang models do not have rains picking up to much this magnitude. Nor does the official forecast...other than with minor wrarning. Face it, we have a tropical storm around now. Point is...if the rains move in pretty quickly they could be here to stay for much of the day...or a good part of the late morning through early afternoon, considering Irene is closing in a wee bit.

Otherwise, rains should still develop up and down the coast prior to noon..most everywhere. They may also reach further to the west, especially over South Florida. It appears from the actual state of the atmosphere in the image above that rains will reach into the spine of the state...with backups arriving off the coast under the fresh ENE winds and moderately unstable atmosphere off shore.


IRENE THROUGH FRIDAY: Emphasis on the opening 'quoted' paragraph prevails.  There was one interesting thing I noticed with the GFS model. That model is one of the main squeezes for the future track of Irene.  I do not know if it was run in time for the replacement...but I do not believe so. But it ..and that model alone so far..is putting the track just a hairline fracture closer to Florida.  Additionally, the latest RUC 18hour run indicates yet another eye wall replacement to occur later today into tonight while Irene is still SE-ESE of Cape Canaveral. This brings again the track a bit closer..than the forecast track for that time frame By overnight the GFS has Irene reaching 'Peak Performance" in terms of Strength (through Saturday). Therefore, as it strengthens even more..its wind field of tropical storm force winds could as well. Therefore, it shows near steady tropical storm force winds approaching 40mph along the Florida East coast overnight tonight into Sunrise Friday. I say this only to air on the side of caution. There is nothign official being transmitted to that degree.


I also noticed that the same model which picked up the wobble earlier..is creating another one. The net result looks like this at the end of that model run:

FICTIONAL!! This shows a tropical storm near the Coast. This was run though, right as Irene was just completing the eye-wall replacement. A similar scenario was shown as it began the cycle...But, since the GFS of 2AM seems to indicate slighting stronger winds...it is something to toy with. ALL IN ALL..the forecast track holds firm in the long range with some changes that have no impact on Florida...but do for folks from the Carolinas and North. For the second time they are shifting the track at some point to the west and closer to if not on land near Maryland or New York.

TONIGHT: Just in case, anyone near the beach or even toward US1 might want to secure loose objects while the day is young. Any unexpected winds in a squally rain shower could send something 'moving' that otherwise would not be so desired.


OVERALL: The local affects other than those on the ocean are difficult today due to the eye wall replacements. Common sense tells me...they won't change a thing for us here...with that..the post of yesterday holds firm..other than these brain teaser models that are out there... There is an old saying..and I laugh in spite of myself:  "He who lives by the models, dies by the models". I'd like to live another day...to see another storm. And what the heck....


There is another Depression just determined to have been born well out in the Atlantic west of Africa.


FRIDAY: Rains and winds should end ..whenever they end. So far, could be as soon as noon time..or as late as sunset. It all depends on how the beast breaths. Any exhale in our direction can make a difference . Winds will be from the NNW and still gusty if all goes as planned..so the waves will grow smaller with every set of waves that rolls in. Get'm while they're hot! The storm will pull away as will the waves subside, especially with stronger offshore winds blowing the remaining after-shock ripples trickling toward the east coast in the other direction.


SATURDAY/MONDAY: As the Storm works up the east coast of the U.S. winds will become WSW-W with no sea breeze. Record high temperatures, especially near the east coast because that area is accustomed to sea breezes in August as a rule...are possible. 


Rain chances are questionable. Logic says 'no rain' because there is no trigger and no sea breeze. Models say, "Yeah, but there is a lagging trough Irene left behind..and I want there to be moisture convergence along it to make showers during the mid morning to late afternoon moving across the state wherever I have that boundary". 


The trend has been drying though..so best bet is the next runs will show even more drying and no rain. Just have to see, and still a few days away to watch this factor.


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Looks like a return to a more normal cycle, with storms favoring the interior and toward the east coast late in the day. Beyond..it all gets so messed up. Irene blew a few microchips or overloaded the model's hard drives and circuit boards with "too much information"...let's call it 'Convective Feedback".  


I am getting the impression that we are entering a blend of the end of thunderstorm season and more of a solely tropical regime as we get into the first week of September..and might add..the peak of Hurricane Season. Watching the Gulf..and anywhere near either coast of Florida for starters for future developments. As well as, what comes down the African Turnpike , a.k.a  "The 10th Degree of North Latitude".

Potential For Plan B Today As Irene Becomes a Major Hurricane

 Good afternoon! I am not going to spend a whole lot of time in regard to the future course of Irene once the storm is past Central Florida and the rain chance directly related to the storm has ceased. But the storm will be addressed today in regard to how and why the system may or may not affect mainly the east side of the state south of St. Augustine beginning around 10AM to Noon time Thursday. Wanted to clear the air in that regard first...but first today.


****For local information pertinent to your area of interest please refer to the services of the National Weather Service. For individuals living south of Fort Pierce that would be the office out of Miami. From Ft. Pierce (St. Lucie County and north through Volusia)..that is the office located in Melbourne. North of Volusia County (Flagler)..visit the website for the office in Jacksonville, Florida.****

I write this because changes will be ongoing as Major Hurricane Irene approaches and parallels the state from early Thursday through sunset Friday. These offices are already issuing special statements concerning the potential hazards involved ...most of which involve those associated with the ocean such as rip currents and erosion. Other hazards involving wind and rain are not expected to be so prevalent to go beyond awareness and general safety rules involved with driving in the rain and wind. It is the beaches that will feel the bite with Irene .


TODAY: There is an obvious pattern established today so far with plentiful moisture across mainly the south half of the state...but moisture convergence due to a fairly deep but  relatively light easterly flow component is able to make up the difference even north toward JAX for rain shower development. One thunder storm formed earlier toward Titusville, but already its presence cannot be seen on this satellite image. But it likely left a boundary around.  Virtually every model disagrees with the tid bits today due to the approach of now Major Hurricane Irene.  but in general most of the east side of the state should be fine with the rain and thunder chances working toward the west side of the state during the remainder of the afternoon. These should occur from near lake Okeechobee north to west of St. Augustine..but thunder restricted to South Central Florida     


TONIGHT: Onshore winds near the coast remain light with a warm evening in store. A few showers Mainly SE Florida over night...with some reaching the coast and making it about 10-20  miles inland. These showers will work north with time just as Irene moves North and west (and eventually curves away from the state late Friday). 


What is a "Major Hurricane?" . The term is being thrown around loosely as if everybody on the planet should already know by radio and TV.  I wonder if even 1/3 of the news crews out there even know..the very ones who are spreading the word. Any storm classified as 'Cat'egory 3 or above. In light of the damage level shown here on a Cat 3, No Wonder it is "Major"....currently, the storm is approximately 550 miles SE of Cape Canaveral moving NW. It is anticipated that Irene will reach Cat 4 strength during it's peak performance..prior to reaching the Atlantic Coast very close to Cape Hatteras. 


It is difficult to determine if the storm will actually cross the coast in entirety (at least the eye portion)..the track has ever evolved and shifted east with time since the day of its inception. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: In a nutshell -    **Completely contingent upon the future size and track of Major Hurricane Irene**      What we can do is take the only tools we have which is current guidance and real time data..and extrapolate between the two into the future. The latest GFS actually has the storm center tracing just offshore the entire eastern sea board from where the yellow highlight is shown..and then comign on shore near Long Island or Connecticut..and fully into Maine. Florida will be in the clear for sure of any direct strike once the storm has torn its way PAST the area shown in lavender.

                                     CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK:

But even so, that might not do well enough. Consider, we are talking about a living, breathing , and maturing teenager turning manic and out of control without meds on the way to adulthood in the course of 24 hours. With that, the worst case scenario looks like the first showers directly associated with the outer bands of Hurricane Irene will arrive sometime between 9AM-noon. From whatever time they arrive, they should be able to continue through later Friday and increase in number and degree into at least early Friday ..to even late Friday evening.  It is possible the first bands of rain could contain some thunder and stronger wind gusts due to down drafts ...the showers/storms will move through quickly, perhaps followed by a lull in the rain but not the wind. But the lulls will be briefest along A1A at all times.


During the day Thursday more fast moving but small sized showers will continue to pour in from the Atlantic Ocean gradually working into Volusia and possibly Flagler Counties.  Winds appear will be steady state and at their strongest over night Thursday night into early Friday morning. Perhaps continuous 22-32mph range with gusts in the fast moving squalls of rain above tropical storm force in the 38mph range or so. Throughout the day Thursday and Friday the true winds of the storm's circulation will come in from the east to ENE...and gradually back to ENE then NE. and NNE with time as the storm approaches.  When Irene is directly east of Central Florida  the wind will be due north over Central Florida. Further south this evolution will all transpire earlier in the time frame continuum.


The only true hazard with Irene is the ever increasing storm surf.  Any danger associated with the movie "Victory At Sea" one can imagine will be present anywhere above knee deep water. Best advice for any one is don't go beyond ankle deep. Should a large wave come in and catch you off guard...oh well. Or for that matter, do not get on the beach at all. But, it will become obvious just exactly whether or not it is even safe to go on the dunes...especially during times of high tide. The other possible hazard is waterspouts near the coast which if they come ashore would be tornadoes..but, this seems pretty unlikely to occur on the west side of the storm, but it has happened. High tide in general using Cape Canaveral as a reference point in Brevard County will be around 5:30pm Thursday and an hour later on Friday.  It will also occur around 4:30 AM to 6:30AM (Saturday) as the storm departs. Winds by Saturday sunrise will be offshore for surfers and big waves.


Additionally, at high tide or even a few hours before and after  there could be a danger of beach erosion. The NWS is not toying around and simply painting the worst scenario..which is the right way to go until proven otherwise. In that case, beach erosion could become a real issue, but it won't last too long (not like a northeaster)..so the hype to some degree might be over done...it is simply too hard to know because we do not know how large of an area the wind field with Irene will be, nor how strong the wind contained in that field will get.


In turn, the coverage of rainfall is also difficult.  The consistency in plots would indicate that the most heavily affected area both in wind and rain will be east of US1 from St. Augustine South..but the biggest area to be affected when all is said and done will be southern Volusia county along and east of US1 to Vero Beach or Ft. Pierce.  Given the winds fields over the entire event, there might be two 'hot spots' of bigger rainfall, 
1) Near Ft Pierce; 2) North Merritt Island, Cape Canaveral, Central  and South Rockledge into Eau Gallie, and perhaps North Cocoa Beach...with some of this activity skimming by Titusville and into Port St. John as well. 3)  Also south of Ft. Pierce to Key Largo area.

A SIMULATED (not real) Radar Depiction of what radar  could look like in approximately 18 hours or so. These are not to be believed.  Also, realize that we never see the entire system from Miami at this point in time. I fully expect that radar and satellite information tomorrow through Saturday will be AMAZING to see!

These same area will also receive the strongest wind gusts, but the strongest winds through the event will occur along and east of A1A in Southern Volusia, Brevard, Indian River Counties...extending to ocean front south to Miami.and briefly toward key Largo and west of there as well.  Believe the strongest winds of all, which could reach tropical storm force in gusts will occur as Hurricane Irene begins to get not only stronger but larger. This will occur as she reaches the Latitude of Melbourne beach and continue for quite some time north of that latitude.  This could be the bench mark location to just ENE of Cape Canaveral because from there and north the ocean water is not quite as warm...but the storm size itself could spread out. With that..the showers could continue up until Friday evening north of Vero Beach..with the last to pull out near the Cape...as soon as mid-afternoon Friday to as late as midnight Friday night...there is simply no way to know until we see how big the areal coverage of Irene will be...and the fact that it should be expanding in circumference as it tries to pull away.


 Overall, I'm envisioning the biggest impact in both winds and rain to the state to  run from the North Side of the Cape (Playalinda Beach) to Port Canaveral and south to Cocoa Beach Pier beach-side specifically and up to one block from the beach...then beach-side immediately south to Sebastian Inlet..and perhaps North Merritt island.  


Outside of these areas, rainfall with less of the wind gusts will or could occur west of I95 in Southern Flagler South through Volusia and Brevard..perhaps into eastern Orange and Seminole County...NE Osceola.


Rain and winds will lessen from South to North and from west to east..with the last to end far East Central.


"PLAN B" - Irene continues to shift its course further to the east and the only impact will be Marine related.


AFTER IRENE: More... lots more to discuss in the local forecast involving more early through late afternoon thunderstorms and showers (into Monday) and hot afternoon temperatures beach-side with NO SEA BREEZE.  The focus will be across Central originally it appears on Saturday and Sunday. ..becoming state winde Monday and Tuesday.


Beyond the weekend into early September.... I'm watching the Gulf of Mexico..not the Atlantic.  Irene will be leaving behind a trail of low pressures in the Gulf that will linger for quite some time to come.  This area is unfettered of storms due to high pressuer over Texas. That is problematic though..but somewhere is of that high pressure..and where it will be effective will or could pay homage to future Tropical Weather Outlooks.  Waters here are near 90F, winds are light, and this area has been just waiting since late winter for this opportunity. Florida and anywhere east of the Mississippi will be in for more forecasting headaches I have a feeling in September.


And what's that I see? The ridge over Texas breaking down!?? Finally?..too far out in space to tell. But it has been indicated...if it is showing September 10th though..that could end up being October..or not at all.  

 

Unique Day For Florida Weather - Pristine Irene Not So Serene

BLUE LINES: Weak Sea Breezes (and none) at 11AM and an Outflow Boundary From Large Thunderstorms off the NE Florida Coast (also in blue) is progressing toward the State

TODAY: A tough forecast today for the region North of Ft. Pierce to Sarasota mainly. Moisture is ample at all levels for the most part, but what is currently shown could change. The biggest "?" in this area is along the east coast east of I95 as well as how the moisture levels at various components of the atmosphere (levels) will change during the late morning through mid-afternoon in what appears to be a mostly unchanging atmosphere other than normal sea breeze development. It is possible the east coast sea breeze will move little from the coast until the outflow boundary gets into closer proximity of the coast north of Vero Beach.


SOUTH FLORIDA: Most diurnal type mechanisms seem to be in place in South Florida today with ample moisture, only very light sea breezes, and no prohibitive factors for rain and thunderstorm development at play. Once initial activity sets outflow boundaries into the area, those combined with the lake breezes and subsequent additional outflows could fill this area in with precipitation fairly well. It is after 3pm that the most lightning type activity should develop as boundaries meet just away from the coast and/or along the depth of the inland penetration of either coasts/s sea-breeze. There could be some odd ball strong storms created by the washing-machine circulation created over the Everglades that might produce a 'surprise event' along the South East of Southwest coast. 


TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL: Having a hard time envisioning the sea breezes actually meeting today, unless until very late. Winds aloft are quite light,, and just at or near the top of what might be the normal vertical depth of the sea breeze winds are light from the WSW. This could greatly delay the east coast sea breeze from Brevard and north..or at least make for little inland penetration beyond I95..OR..leave the sea breeze to develop but leave it quite shallow..in which case. storms might not be able to form along it...but if the can..could be quite lightning filled. 


The other perplexing factor today involves the outflow boundary visible on satellite imagery late this morning. It appears to be approaching the state with arrival around 3pm or during peak heating hours. It might even be sensed by the atmosphere PRIOR to its arrival due to mass convergence ahead of its push.


Should this boundary arrive either before or shortly after the east coast sea breeze develops, some stronger thunderstorms could occur both along, behind, and just ahead of where ever the sea breeze is located at that particular time. Thus, the Big "Huh"?  


Two Scenarios: The front never makes it to the coast, at which point more sparsely dispersed shower/storm coverage would follow with generally cloudiness in other locations...with better chances late today away from either coast as outflows from the activity over South Florida propogate.s northward along the leading edge of outflows from along and north of Lake Okeechobee.


The other scenario is that this large frontal outflow drawn above does make it to the coast. If that is to occur, storms could be much stronger along the sea breezes where it has developed, or perhaps, the sea breeze will not even be required.  Likewise, the outflow with the cool air behind it might only create general cloudiness and less coverage. I'm not weighing or depending on that side of the coin today. Thus, storms developing along, near, or just west of the immediate sea shore with those resulting in propogating outflows WSW-SW ward. Coverage in this case would be quite generous. Some of the early activity (which would be in the early to mid afternoon could contain quite a bit of lightning...) and some stronger wind gusts over South Central Florida (South of the BeachLine).


More activity could be ongoing over South Florida and further inland and toward the west coast until nearly midnight...per Scenario number two.


WEDNESDAY: Another tough call. The latest NAM run indicates plentiful moisture but no rain as winds at most all levels become more umiformly ENE with time ahead of Hurricane Irene while it is on more of a NW course.  Perhaps this will equate to more of a showery regime, but if so..how much? There are no definities tomorrow ..so in the morning we will have to see just exactly how much moisture we have to work with, where in the atmosphere it is located, and how strong (not strong mind you)..the wind will be. Normally, I'd think near uniform flow from the ENE would equate to wide spread small rain showers and maybe some thunder as storms progress toward the west coast (at this time of year). But given we also have a hurricane in our midst and its surrounding envelope (macro climate within)...the exact impact..if any..is a bit hard to determine. With those winds, the temperatures especially near the coast should not be quite as warm tomorrow..but far from 'cool'.


THURSDAY: The forecast for Thursday and Friday is solely dependant/contingent upon what influences Irene (if any) will have.  Surely there will be marine impacts of high seas and rough surf..with rain offshore in squalls. Model guidance is coming into alignment so closely in regard to the cyclones track that it is almost scary.  There is only one 'fly'.


Per the official discussion and as I'm observing, the storm was expected to become a MAJOR hurricane...however, despite the fact that it will be entering very warm waters..it will also be entering a shearing deformation zone produced by the decaying presence of a 700mb trough (the one responsible for the storms off NE Florida at this time). With that, no intensification beyond what it has at the time it gets east of Cape Canaveral is expected.  Pristine Irene , of so serene, could have only minor impacts to those locations mostly east of I-95. 


And, if the official forecast holds true, we will hardly know it is out there.  However, any further west ward track closer to the coast will make the difference between night and day in regard to wind and rain. Therefore, consult local forecasts issued by the NWS in MIA, MLB, JAX, and TPA for the official outlook...after the morning post is made these  days .  Chances are, we will already know the scoop at 'blog post time' because by then we will know where the storm is and which way it is headed..at least with respect to Florida.


PRISTINE IRENE (The Younger Sister of Serene Irene by 5 Years): As stated above, other than marine concerns, impacts are not looking bad at all for Florida. Even as late as yesterday afternoon one model had it headed toward Vero Beach. Therefore, it is advised to closely monitor the storm until it gets north of Cape Canaveral. It is at about that point it should be its strongest .


If any changes occur other than 'the expected' before that time, we will surely know about it through a variety of outlets. The NAM has even come into agreement with all other models as of 8AM..which previously was an outlier along with the GFDL. I will say though that if the storm takes the present forecast track, impacts for Florida will be minimal to zero other than the rough seas...seas near shore are not expected to be substantially large enough to create beach erosion.


In lieu of posting my ideas or thoughts of what I think might happen, I leave that to the NHC (The Hurricane Center) and the Weather Service to release only official information. Otherwise, one man's word becomes another man's gospel. ..which is passed on to another person (and altered a bit)..and before you know it ..the rumor mill as mulled up a witches brew of down right lies by those so inclined to generate fear and apprehension amongst the meek and mild mannered.


BEYOND: Showers and thunderstorms will be once again  be possible later in the weekend as Irene is well away..with very warm to hot coastal afternoons due to the lack of a sea breeze until Irene is 2 days out of the picture, at least.  The storm could end up not striking land at all..but if it does..the saving grace is that since it might even weaken from the already now forecast reasons stated above...where it does strike will not be nearly as great of an impact as previously envisioned (But, it would still have a major impact to coastal communities if it does meet or get very close to any coastal area).  


Keep attuned at times during the next 48 hours regarding Irene though. If it does gain more momentum as was thought up until just a few hours ago..a very strong storm would or could change the forecast track as much as in a drastic fashion...and we don't want to be caught off guard by some sudden NW motion as what has happened in other locations in past when Major Hurricanes are in the midst of near approach..additionally, if its forward motion for some reason slows down for any length of time..that could also change the expected storm track down the line.

First Hurricane of 2011, Serene Irene - Showers/Thunder Mainly North Central Today

This charts shows Precipitable Water in the atmosphere. Over South Florida it is lowest..but not all that low. The moisture there is mostly contained within the cumulus cloud level...same with the I-10 Corridor.
You will see in the next image a strange 'anomaly' from the Norm.

TODAY: Interesting day can POTENTIALLY be in store.  A 700mb trough axis is expected to stroll into Central Florida on its last and most southern gasp today. Moisture is expected to pool along that boundary atop a  potentially relative very unstable low level atmosphere. Winds all the way up to heaven are less than 10mph and less than 5mph below 10,000 ft everywhere..so steering is non-existent. Believe, therefore, showers/thunder will first be promoted right as or before the weak sea breeze forms in the orange shaded area very close to along the 'magic dividing line' of North vs. South Central Florida...roughly from Cape Canaveral to North Tampa Bay. Thunder is questionable though without boundary mergers before 3 or 4pm.  


Light stirring currents at the low levels over the Merritt island Wildlife Refuge conflicting with each other and a developing sea breeze (or prior on the north side) could promote good rain shower upward lift underneath upper level divergence.  There are two negatives though. Moisture at cumulus cloud top height should be greater and I don't know how long the upper level divergence will remain in place.

In this image, I've written that divergence might increase as the trough at 700mb (about 10,000ft up) bottoms out There is already some deep layer moisture convergence going on over Central Brevard into Osceola County based on another plot I just looked at. But who knows just how deep......Could we end up with an axis of showers and maybe thunder all the way out to sea by early afternoon along the 700mb trough axis..OR..just a cloud deck!!? Given the high instability shown..I ran with the showers theory..but could be wrong easily.

SOUTH HALF OF STATE: Very little moisture above cumulus cloud level and has been decreasing since early morning. It is interesting that the GFS brings more in..but I see it no where on ACTUALS..at least note through early afternoon. Thus, expecting mostly quick showers along either coast and near the Lake along the Lake Breeze.  Thunder could occur along the sea/lake breeze merger in Martin/St. Lucie County area though and maybe toward the SW Coast later today if more moisture works in as depicted by the GFS.


NORTH HALF: Most unstable atmosphere today over all of North Central Florida. There is forecast to be an interesting moisture gradient in the mid-levels just south of the Magic Dividing Line almost all day. In fact, very little is to change today other than the south and far north drying out aloft and sea breezes forming during the mid-afternoon hours. Before then, they should cling to the coast and be quite light.


Very 'huggy' today on the intracoastals. Warm, Muggy, humid, and close, with heat indices in the 105 -112F range. This leaves this area for thunderstorms. Believe the sea breeze collision will occur toward the interior of the state..and some could roll off shore or to the shore as far south as North Merritt Island toward dusk if not later (other than earlier activity potential)..but outside of boundaries forcing such motion...most should be along and west of US1 except for in Volusia and North Brevard over the Intracoastal.


 It is with that activity that a waterspout could form given such a subtle nature like none I've seen this year aloft to the wind fields at literally every altitude prior to and during the sea breeze front development. If so, the most likely area would be near Pads A/B, the Refuge, and surrounding areas toward Canaveral Air Force station (less likely though). and perhaps near Daytona Beach. This is under the assumption that showers can form though first off. That mid level moisture might end up being a cloud deck instead to OFFSET showers rather than abet them. So, we'll see what surmounts to probably nothing. Just wanted to throw that in for good measure.


Thunder is most likely late today as the sea breezes and rain shower outflows merge..since the outflows could have a good push to them given that there is no conflict winds of substantial velocity to negate any forward motion of created OFBs (outflow boundaries).  Storms could continue until after dark toward Orlando in any area not already worked over...OR..where a shower occurs early and can recover its instability during the mid afternoon.


TOMORROW: Haven't really looked heavily into tomorrow, but from what I saw earlier and last night...it will be a similar scenario since the 700mb trough is expected to pull out during that time. South Florida should see some increasing moisture too by then, but we'll jump that hurdle when we come to it. In any case, there is nothing expected to occur that would prompt greater urgency than what is happening in the tropics.


TROPICS: Hurricane Irene was proclaimed this morning. I'm expecting it will oscillate between Hurricane and Storm until it reaches the Coast of the Dominican Republic then Cuba (if it does get there) at which point I'm thinking it will go back to storm..it all depends on how close it traverses to the northern coast..or for that matter..over it or inland from it..in which case it would go back to Storm.  


The model guidance since late yesterday has been in very close agreement with its future course..although not being exact (as would be expected further out in time)..they remain clustered tightly. Thus, we should be able to rely closely on the weighted mean average of the forecast tracks...which has been portrayed by the Official Hurricane Tracking, Watch, and Warning Center in Miami.  


Presented below is the latest as of 9:15AM this morning. What this exactly  shows will be described in the following paragraphs below, as well as future implications-- and naturally, assumptions (both pro and con) for the weather wary or weary traveler or homesteader.

WHAT HAVE WE HERE?

Description:
1. Orange is dry air. The storm is near the center...brown circles show vorticity (wind energy) along the SOUTH side of the storm..Thus, it is not in the dry air...which is the SAL that had been in place for quite a while. It looks like the dry air is trying to wrap around the storm...but will it? If so, and that dry air gets entrained (pulled into) the system..it would weaken, especially since it is approaching more land. Thus, do not expect any more strengthening, or if so..only minor strengthening with the land near by.


2. The Solid White line is the official Forecast Track. At time, it approaches the Florida East coast where you will see all those other colored lines. Those lines represent forecast tracks from Consensus / Ensemble models as well as the main squeeze dynamical models. 


The latter want to take the storm further offshore from the coast. The eventual track hinges on the strength of low and high pressure to the north and east of the system. I see why the models want to relax the eastern push at this time. However, is it simply momentary with respect to the bigger picture in time? Say..by this time tomorrow? In other words, based on last nights projections and those of over night/morning..we could pretty likely see a hurricane within that broader cone of error within the outer yellow lines. Bear in mind, the easterly more side of the cone where the lines merge the most has been favored now since yesterday..and given the pattern we have been in for a month now...don't see that changing anytime soon.


3. Again the brown lines. It looks like the air from which the storm might be deriving some of its energy is moist..not dry, air..no reds or oranges. So perhaps it can hold its own...ALL depending on the track the storm takes in relation to the hilly land mass..but the most tall hills and mountains are over Haiti and Central...it all plays out to all things equal.


4. Finally, what happens once the storm clears the landmasses of the DR and Cuba is anyone's guess. Please refer to the Hurricane Center for the latest guidance and read word for word the "Discussion" Link after clicking on the little Irene Icon on the start page.  In a nut shell, I will say this. The center wrote this morning that they are playing the storm strength on the conservative side...in their forecast of sustained winds of 100-110 mph as the storm approaches the coast of West Palm Beach (but off shore).


They  are  also tackling the issue of the track at that point in time down the road..as well as if the storm stays further from shore..the possibility that Irene could become a major hurricane. Believe that would not occur until it gets north of Ft. Pierce if it t'were to be..but who knows. It strengthen TWICE now more than expected..so who's to say anything other than..be on alert.


5. Listen to advisories..but for the latest..watch the web...


SCENARIO: If the forecast goes EXACTLY as planned at this moment up through the next 60 hours...believe evacuations will be in order up and down the A1A Corridor from Miami to  Canaveral...as a precaution. I won't go into possible ramifications under certain scenarios at this point since it would be pure 'alarmist mode rhetoric' . But, do consider the provided list of yesterday once again.


Other suggestions: Keep gas tank full as of at least tonight. 


Have plastic zip lock bags on hand to store documents or jewelry. 


Ensure medications are in supply enough to last through September 5th at least...and consider having empty containers to store water.


These can be put in the freezer, so that if there is a prolonged power outage its contents can hold longer, and as it melts it also serves as drinking water. 


In case I forget and something more threatening looms...fill the tub with water. This can be used to flush the toilet in case the plumbing goes out (namely for the barrier islands).


It's a worn out cliche..."STAY TUNED"..rather "STAY ATTUNED" seriously to official outlets. I've said my peace already twice here...it's all up to the reader to play it smart and thrifty, or to live on the edge of stupidity ..especially if nothing changes by this time Wednesday.


Final note: It was written this storm could become a major hurricane. If so, the first most likely case for that to be true would be if it stays further from the coast. Bear in mind, so far it is expected to encompass a very large area within 72 hours and beyond due to the fact that outflow all around the system looks very good. In which case, were a major hurricane to take shape and be further offshore, the shear size could come close to outweighing the further distance from the coast in regard to winds along A1A at least. It would be better though from this perspective in regard to any storm surge threat up intracoastals or at the coast is concerned.