Inconsequential Sprinkles Possible at Coast, Otherwise PleasantEE

East to ENE winds today at 10-18mph with a few higher gusts are possible until right after sunset. A few sprinkles could eke to the coast before drying out shortly after reaching the drier air over land west of US1.

Latest temperature plot forecast for early today with the cold front to approach Florida drawn in. The white along the east coast is where a sprinkle or enhanced periods of cloudiness could occur at any time and point before dark. Winds behind this front in portions of Southern Nebraska, West Kansas, and into Western Oklahoma and eventually NW Texas are gusting between 32-45mph with temperatures behind the front in the mid  30Fs. Ahead of the front temperatures are 15-20 degrees warmer with equally as strong winds from the opposite direction. Two locations in Nebraska were reporting a thunderstorm with temperatures of 40F and 34F respectively. Quite the dynamic little system for sure. Have no fear, this front will have minimal impact to Florida.

TODAY: High pressure centered over Eastern Virginia is expanding both up and down the entire east coast this afternoon in the wake of the low departing to well off shore the DEL-MAR-VA  region. It cannot even be seen in the above image. The recent snows in New England appear to be abetting development of this high northward per the cold surface temperatures in the NE states where it recently snowed over the weekend. Otherwise, greater expansion of the high pressure through Florida will slowly reduce the pressure gradient and also allow winds to become more ENE to E tonight. Outside of a quickly moving sprinkle at the immediate coast (don't blink or you'll miss it north of Ft. Pierce) other areas will be partly cloudy this afternoon with pancake stratocumulus clouds with a few low topped cumulus. Highs in the lower 70Fs far North increasing to the mid-upper 70Fs Central (with a few near 80F) and upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs South.


TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds and winds after sunset with any chance of a sprinkle removed as winds die down. Overnight lows similar to what was experienced this morning wherever you were, although coastal lows from US1 to A1A along the entire east coast might be a few degrees cooler due to less influence of the east winds blowing across the low-upper 70Fs ocean temperatures.


THURSDAY: Little overall change from today with winds quite light from the East becoming SE-SSE eventually after dark. No showers and clear to partly cloudy by early afternoon.


FRIDAY: Possibly cooler along the immediate east coast with a SW wind of 12-18 mph after sunrise preceding a cold front which by sunrise will be cutting through the Big Bend region. Cooler temperatures near the coast since the sea winds will be absent and be replaced by a land breeze. The front will be accompanied by a band of sprinkles/clouds but will likely dissipate with those with rising of the sun. Cold frontal passage across Central appears will be from late morning the mid-afternoon and be accompanied by a band of clouds and a wind shift to the west. The front will finally clear Eastern Dade shortly after sunset. Models are agreeing on a slightly faster frontal passage than previous runs, thus afternoon highs on Friday appear to be limited to the mid-upper 70Fs Central and cooler to the north, but warmer over South Central and South Florida with low-mid 80Fs. West to WNW winds will follow the front with a rapid temperature drop   once the sun gets low in the sky all but SE Florida. Winds will veer from NW-N during the first 6 hours after dark per the morning runs of the NAM and GFS.  No rain with the front south of I-10 for the most part.


SATURDAY: Winds nearly due north to NNE at the immediate coast. Morning lows could portray a very sharp temperature gradient from east to west across the state, with the A1A corridor from the north side of the Cape and south along mainly the barrier Islands of Brevard in the upper 60S, whereas on the west side of Orlando toward Tampa and South to the NW side of Lake Okeechobee lows could be in the mid-upper 40Fs. Temperatures could be in the low to mid 50s as far south as Kendall in Dade County with the western Metro Area in the 50Fs as well, whereas Key Biscayne could be 17 F degrees warmer. So far though, it mostly looks like the only areas to skid by on this one will be the Barrier Islands of Brevard and the Keys.


SATURDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY: All models agree on the wind and temperature fields for the most part, with the GFS being the outlier by  developing a surface to mid level low pressure area that drops SSE east of the  Bahamas over the weekend. Whether or not this happens could make a big impact for the east coast in regard to Winds and rain chances. The NAM (for a change) is not so robust with an actual low developing but rather leaves it as a trough. In turn, an open wave allows more moisture to reach the coast, so without a doubt the NAM translates that to mean measurable rainfall working down the east coast from JAX along a NE wind surge with sunrise Saturday morning. The GFS is not so robust with the surge and as such, the rain. Both show equal amounts of precipitable water though with nearly identical thermal profiles aloft, but with a closed low (per the GFS) more of the moisture remains wrapped around the low and well offshore. For now, siding with the GFS per its track record recently (as of last May).   Either way, increased cloudiness at least along the immediate coast with brisk NE- ENE winds through Monday.


The main concern for the weekend comes with an Air Show  scheduled for the Space Coast. Even if it does not rain, or only lightly, cloud cover would greatly hamper the view...and if the NAM verifies, so would the winds at 2000 ft forecast to be in the 30-40mph range. It looks like one of "Shuttle Launch Fails For Viewing But Happening Anyway" situations unless the NAM verifies, which would mean calling the whole thing off.


BEYOND: Warming temperatures from mid to late week with overnight lows along the coast the same as the ocean temperatures offshore (low-mid 70FS)...and highs in the upper 70Fs at the coast  to lower 80Fs inland and all of South Florida, perhaps mid 80Fs toward the SW Side. The GFS is showing a continued chance of sprinkles not only for the coast but elsewhere, and if so, afternoon highs could be taken down a few notches due to cloud cover, but temperatures will be far from chilly.


The next front is scheduled in the Daily Planner of the Weather Gods for late next week , so we'll have to see if they need to reschedule. So far, neither this front or the one after that has yet to show a temperature impact through mid-November. Lady Luck is on the SnowBird's Side...as well as a high percentage of the locals.

A Review - 2011 Year of Weather Anomalies Continues

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Coastal Sprinkles and Perhaps Very Small Measurable Amounts of rain are occurring this morning at the coast from near Vero Beach to NE Palm Beach County. These showers are working down the coast along instability and higher dew point  temperatures associated with where the warm Gulf Stream waters are closest to the coast. These showers could continue toward sunset in the area in white from time to time toward lower Dade/Broward , and possibly a sprinkle could occur as far north as the lavender  drawn in after 4pm to one hour before sunset.

This image shows the low level (surface based) Convective Instability which is helping generate these showers and/or thicker cloud bands per the red lines of constant CAPE (convective available potential energy). As winds become a bit more NNE later today (rather than due north), some of the showers could inch north toward Indian River or South Brevard but be of no impact. The Gulf Stream is further offshore north of Ft. Pierce...and as such will be this low level instability shown by those red line.

TODAY: Outside of that mentioned in the  text contained in the captioned images shown above, low pressure east of Virginia will move very little today until a system moving eastward in a very progressive pattern along the northern tier of states from the upper Midwest south into the South Central Plains moves it out. Surface  High pressure is wedge behind the former system from Maine and down the Appalachians into the North Gulf of Mexico and meets up with mid-level high pressure over the Central Gulf of Mexico. This area is responsible for substantial subsidence (sinking) of air above 6000 ft, so shower tops (of those occurring) are limited to generally that altitude.  The high over the Gulf will lift toward the NNE-NE today and permit a slightly more stacked NNE wind to develop later today.  The second system will move toward the ENE through Friday , with another low pressure area developing over North Georgia by Thursday, accompanied by a pre-frontal trough with no impact to most of the state other than to END the rain chance.  Coastal showers are always possible, especially heading toward Thursday but will mainly dissipate as soon as they reach lower dewpoint air away from the coast. Patches of lower stratocumulus clouds will be the rule from time to time, but otherwise sunny skies prevail under weakening NNE winds by Wednesday and Thursday.


FRIDAY: This could be the coolest morning along the east coast due solely to the fact that the easterly winds will have abated ahead of the pre-frontal trough. Lows in the lower to mid 60Fs near the coast this day, but warmer everywhere in the afternoon, even after passage of that trough. No rain with the trough other than near I-10, with highs in the lower 80Fs most anywhere, possible mid 80Fs far South Florida.


The actual front will cross 'invisibly' the state on Friday, with rain limited mainly toward I-10 as far south as Gainesville near where perhaps a thundershower can eke out (worst case). Otherwise, most rain beyond the Panhandle and interior far north Florida will remain over the Gulf waters and the Atlantic. Perhaps another cool morning Saturday east side (for this area), but otherwise no impacts.  Between the former system and high pressure developing further to the north in the mid-levels behind the second system which will build east well to the north of Florida, surface winds will become nearly due east on Saturday and nearly ESE just above 'the deck'. Morning lows at the immediate coast could warm to sea surface temperatures (mid-70Fs) from Port Canaveral and South, with afternoon highs more solidly warming to the mid 80Fs across the West Side of the state from Cedar Key and South with upper 70F/low 80Fs elsewhere. 


SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Deepening easterlies will maintain this temperature regime and increase moisture levels hundredth of an inch by hundredth of inch Saturday, with more assured measurable chances of showers east of I95 overnight Saturday into Sunday as another frontal boundary slowly works into the Deep South. On its approach, the depth of the easterly flow will cease as will the rain chance. In summary, so far Sunday looks to be the best day for rain chances (which will likely change).


BEYOND: No cold fronts are expected to directly impact most of the state (other than toward I-10) for a good two weeks, but that could easily change in the extended. The trend of the long range GFS has been for high pressure in the low and mid-levels to influence most of the state, with most frontal passages to be of the 'back door' variety. Or in other words, fronts mainly sweeping from west to east north of the peninsula then sneaking in from the NNE of the east side of the ridge over the Gulf. These result in little temperature variations from the status quo and occasional wind surges from the NNE accompanied by a cloud deck and sprinkles.

===============================================
THE YEAR OF ANOMALIES, 2011 CONTINUES:
This subject has been touched on more than once in posts since earlier this year. To name a few (and I wish I could recall all of them)...the anomalies began last winter from the Floridian prospective with freezing temperatures along the Florida Beaches well before Christmas during a phase of the negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) . History has just repeated itself with record snowfall in New England creating power outages to over 3 Million residents and snowfall exceeding two feet in some interior areas. Temperatures were not record breaking cold (thank goodness). In fact, during this anomaly the temperature the day after the snow fall in Crestview, Florida was 32F whereas in NYC it was 36F. This phase of the negative NAO (which can last up to two weeks only per my observations and not official), seems to be shifting just far enough offshore now to not have an impact to soil bound earthlings. We seem to be normalizing now, and as such temperatures over Florida will be close to climatological  for a good 10 days at least, if not a few degrees above them.

1. Anomalies first became evident best I recall with the big cold spells that occurred twice over Florida In December, but was preceded by yes, Drought , at this time beginning over Florida. Perhaps this was the fore-bearer of the drought in Texas as the pattern in the lower latitudes retrograded in that direction to the west. It might have been over the Gulf during spring per lack of rain or even clouds there as fronts came through during latter portions of that period. The drought over Florida continued from time to time until summer, with fires such as the Iron Horse but others toward SE Florida and smaller ones of big impact toward SE Georgia which left NE Florida and cities such as JAX in days of smoke. UGH.


2. Snows in the Deep South, including cities such as Atlanta.


3. Tornado Outbreak in the Deep South over Mississippi, Alabama, NW Georgia which worked into South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania (briefly). Two separate events within a 10 day period which began over SE Oklahoma and parts of Arkansas.


4. Flooding in the Mississippi River Valley Basin


5. Drought by this time had already developed over Texas. Continuing. Record or near record breaking days of temperatures of 100F degrees in Texas and parts of Oklahoma during the summer.


6. LACK of tornadoes west of I-35 for the entire Tornado Season in Tornado Alley, but made up for by the Joplin, Missouri Tornado early into that season (east of I35). Other tornadoes toward Ada Oklahoma and a significant day in other parts of Eastern OK before Joplin, but east of I35.


7. One big tornado day in Southern Kansas and Western OK all WEST of I-35 which mainly croaked after crossing that Magic Dividing Line which was odd all by itself. Other storms early in the season from Dallas and west toward Abilene and S. Central Texas toward the Mexican Border.


8. Tornadoes in Arizona mainly just east and north of Phoenix, as well as late spring tornadoes in West Central California. 


9. Drought continues in Texas.


10. Large number of tropical systems, most of which missed land, with the only big impact being from Irene. But note, hurricane force sustained winds were never measured from Irene on land.


11. The No-Name storm over Florida, which by all purposes the True no-named portion occurred on the last night from Brevard County toward the WNW near Ocala (over a fairly large area). The rest of this event was pressure gradient winds from blowing across very warm ocean waters under a cold layer of air aloft. The Not Named portion of which should be restricted, in my opinion, from the disturbance that evolved over the Northern Bahamas which moved NW-WNW-W-NW and land-fell per the lowest barometric pressure at Port Canaveral. All of the weather with this system occurred on the North Side of the system as it made landfall as it combined with the other conditions that had already been in place for two days. Biggest impacts over Osceola, Indian River, Brevard, Polk Counties, as well as Dade, Broward, a part of Collier and toward Naples along the SW Coast. 


12. Drought continues in Texas.  


13. Lack of a substantial Monsoon Season over the Desert SW. Yes, there was some good Haboobs (dust/sand storms) related to thunderstorm outflow, but a long range period of monsoon rains barely existed long enough to call it a "season", although they did occur for two periods that come to mind off the top of my head.


13. Heavy snows over the Sierras in California and flooding in the Northern Plains in North Dakota. Snow skiing in July. 


14. Blizzard like conditions around Chicago and more heavy snows in the NE states, with the New York City being the highlight since so many individuals were impacted in this region, including the Baltimore and Washington DC zones...Del-Mar-VA to NYC.


15. Lack of a solid thunderstorm season along the I-4 corridor in Florida (Lightning Alley). Most of the storms this past summer occurred near NW Brevard (Mims/Titusville) and near the Lake Okeechobee Effect zone (east side) in Indian River/St Lucie/Martin Counties.  The Vero Beach area had its DEFINITE fair share of storms this year, as did Ft. Pierce.  The Barrier Islands of Brevard maintained their status quo 'storm drought' (along with the Keys , which is normal) other than north of SR 520 where mainly Cape Canaveral had more storms than usual, much to this writer's delight! 


Steering for storms this year when it wasn't neutral was toward the East the higher percentage of the time, which is in reverse to the norm. As such, the Tampa bay area didn't have the 'big season" normally expected, but still big (always is). This is not to say that all areas did not eventually receive the pre-requisite summer storm, it was where they occurred most consistently and direction that they moved that was a bit of an anomaly. 


16. The recent EF2 tornado in South Florida and EF0 in South Central, both near the coast. Not sure these should really be included in the overall scheme of things though, since both were indirectly related to sub tropical factors which are consistently abnormal to start with in any year. Overall though, Florida has been in a Tornado and Hurricane Drought, but there was some activity toward Tampa/Lakeland in early spring with one of the several QLCS Squall lines that crossed that state this year.


17. Finally, record rainfall for the Vero Beach area this past month, surpassed since record keeping began only once before. This area received just a little more than one inch of rain shy  last month than that received during the Hurricanes (Frances/Jeanne)debacle of 2004. This area received several inches just yesterday, as well as during the No Name Event (which is where the whole thing started). They also received a good thunderstorm season as noted above. So much for the drought there, man your life boats.


Which reminds me, remember the insane record flooding in Australia? Sorry if I missed something, which is likely.


FINALLY, what's next? Will these odd ball events continue into the winter? We are forecast to be in a La Nina this winter. That pattern as well the El Nino pattern have led people to believe (at least by way of that overly publicized by the fabulizing media (have to earn a buck some how), with the help of some less scientifically inclined meteorologists, that the climatological norms of such patterns leads to a predictable long range, seasonal outlook. 


This is far from the reality. There are other factors such as ENSO, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) to name only a few, as well as other patterns (and yes, I expect we will be hearing about new ones as time passes and more data can be assimilated during the next 10-25 years)...that some schools of thought will be re-defined while newer ones evolve.


 Realize, climatology beyond the past 50-75 years is largely based on poor record keeping (at least that which can be of any use), archaeology,  and geology. Satellites have provided a tremendous view of the earth's weather at all locations simultaneously as well as  has improved communications (continuing). There has likely been big changes in the earth's climate since the planet began, and there's no reason to believe that changes will not continue through eternity or as long as earth exists, a.k.a. Space Weather. Thus, this will be a continuing saga for 'a while' longer.


With that, not even going to touch what the Tornado Season and next year's Hurricane Season will be like...but that does not stop the forecasts for these seasons from being made.  Hey, some folks earn a living that way . It happens every year for both, and sometimes they are correct...but far from always. Recall, even for the tropics..the number of predicted tropical storms is meaningless unless they are steered toward land. Every once in a Golden Age, those two factors for the tropical season over-laps, but when that will be is never known in advance.


Word of final warning, all hurricane prone areas are over due now for "The Big One"..or even "any one " for that matter. Biggest concern at this point at this time of year is , "When will the temperature get so cold that an actual 'coat' will have to be exhumed and the A/C turned off. Small price to pay...but boring.

Chance of Elevated Rotating Storm, Coastal Mini-Rain Event Through 2pm

FORECAST helicity of over 450 m2/s2 Advecting Toward East Central Florida late morning through early afternoon

TODAY: Fairly complex situation evolving this morning as expected. For this morning so far, tossing the GFS since it has quick evolution of a surface low, whereas the trends of the short term RUC and the latest NAM hold off on that formation until later.




NOW: Appears a weak warm front just above the surface is stretched from off shore Ft. Myers toward Melbourne. Strong NE wind at Canaveral north of this feature back more toward the east and decreasing further south.


Instability from the Gulf Stream advecting on shore from Ft. Pierce toward MLB and south to Miami, and expect this could work on shore toward the Tip of the Cape by mid-late morning. The RUC and to some degree the NAM shows a variety of surface lows to form from near Miami to offshore Ft. Pierce to offshore the Cape with just above the deck a more concentric and larger area of low pressure forms along the warm front elongated as stated above through late morning all within the base of a 700mb trough. The warm front should be able to get as far west and north as Port St. John and NNE toward the North side of the Cape by noon as a slightly negatively tilted upper level trough moves through the Deep South and crosses the North Half of Florida.  


Increasing Bulk Shear from the surface to 500mb, Helicity of 400-500 m2/s2 (very high), and CAPE of 400-750 (which is weak) combined with continued on shore flow in the "northeast quadrant' of a developing 925-850mb low centered near the NW side of Lake Okeechobee resulting in onshore flow, with winds veering to S to SSW-SW- W aloft and vorticity moving in with the upper level trough could set up a coastal rain event, all combined with the fact that all of the south half of the state will be within the left exit region of a strengthen upper level jet resulting in increasing upper level divergence and increasing lift  could rationalize this rainfall and possibly some elevated rotating storms...but tornadoes do not look likely.


Worst case would be heavy rainfall along coastal Brevard to Vero Beach, but on the other-hand...if the factors all add up just a few miles further to the east and more quickly (per the GFS)...then light to moderate rain will be the rule ...with the better chance of moderate rainfall nearest the coast.


 An urban flood statement was issued earlier for MLB and south, and with sunrise and greater progression/formation of mid level features with the approach of the upper level trough rain chances/amounts could increase especially near the coast where the low level winds meet upper level SW winds. There could be thunder by mid morning where all the ingredients meet and rotation in the mid-levels results in heavy down pours. It would not surprise me if additional flood statements are issued, and maybe a tornado warning..but believe any rotation to reach the ground would occur offshore.


The big questions are 
1. Where will the 925mb low form and equally as important, when?
2. How far north will the 70F degree dew-points get. All models agree the Beach Line zone toward Tampa, the "Magic Dividing Line". Highest helicity will be right along the 70F dew-point line dividing the state in half..again along the "Magic Dividing line".


Easterly winds are resulting in good coastal convergence, so additional rainfall could occur all the way toward JAX near and east of I-95, but instability will be near zero north of Port Canaveral.
Vort maxes are still on the approach in the mid and upper levels with the heavier rain already occurring despite the fact that this energy and colder air aloft has not yet arrived.

Vorticity arriving. Note that it will base out along the northern extent of the 70F dew-point isothern and cross along the Beach Line where the best helicity will be. This will aid in keeping good isentropic lift type precipitation going north of the warm front. Along the east coast, this lift will be enhanced due to the proximity of warmer ocean waters south of the tip of the CAPE combined with weak instability. As I type, Melbourne is reporting 'Heavy Rain".

The other big question is depending on where the mid level and surface features align, how far north will the heaviest coastal rain get? Guidance is indicating any mid-level convection to make it as far north as KSC with better flat out rain further north. It showed a brief lull in the activity early this morning as a ripple in the 700mb flow might be creating the rains currently occurring, but as the main mid-upper level trough approaches, this area lifts further north toward KSC to the beach line and west toward MCO (Orlando) with the best convergence at the beaches over the Barrier Islands of Brevard from 10am-2pm.




FURTHER SOUTH: It appears the rain has ended for South Florida for the time being, perhaps being 'capped' by warm air aloft over running an otherwise more unstable atmosphere. Whether any storms will impact this area later is a bit questionable, dependent on where the surface low develops, or more appropriately the low just above the surface. If it forms offshore, the resultant pseudo-cold frontal trough will form off shore, and this area will already by behind the front, thus...very little more rain. On the other hand, if the warm front turns into a cold front (rather than a front forming along the Gulf Stream), then South Florida could have another round of heavier rain and thunder after 3pm until around 6pm.  South Florida will need to be monitored during the course of the afternoon to see how things evolve for their second shot of rainfall.


IT'S HALLOWEEN, WHEN DOES IT END?: Looks like rainfall will taper off and end with the setting sun everywhere, with some light rain possibly continuing from time to time until 8pm near the coast somewhere from Brevard to Miami contingent upon where the surface low strengthens to the east of the coastline (and back wash moisture wraps around the north side of it)...This day is standing up to its "Trick or Treating" by Mother Nature reputation. A rotating storm passed off shore north of the Port (Canaveral) on this day in 1997.


BEYOND: Briefly, continued NE winds rule the roost with another frontal boundary to cross near Friday but have no impacts but to enhance NE flow once it passes. Coastal showers (sprinkles) possible by Wednesday. There are TWO opportunities setting up for a Nor'easter like set up along the SE U.S> coast in the first 10 days of November which would be mainly an erosion issue, but the details are yet to be ironed out. 

Rainfall For Tonight Remains "Up in the Air"

The Great Model Debate - How Far South will the Polar Jet Coming Down from Canada Dig as well as how far  west will it bottom out in the next 18 hours. Areas to consider for substantial rainfall Monday are between the lavender lines and south of the green line (South Florida) for rains on Monday OR both areas under the Green Line (north Florida).

SHORT POST AT NOON: Keeping this post fairly short today after looking at overnight model runs, including the SREF, two version of the FIM, the overnight GFS, the latest NAM, the ECMWF, and the GGEM....taking all of these and comparing to actuals and latest trends at the ground.


One big problem seems to be the record snowfall (of over 30" in the mountains of New England yesterday and overnight. High pressure is strengthening behind the low pressure system that is well out of the picture by now near Nova Scotia, and the snow covered ground left behind is likely creating persist colder temperatures at the ground over a boarder than expected expanse and thus strengthening surface high pressure all the down the eastern seaboard. During the past couple of hours pressures have been rising over the state with brisky ENE-NNE winds continuing. Diurnally, this would occur, but the are occurring more than what would be expected under the circumstances portrayed by yesterday's model runs.


The effect of the strengthening high pressure is that the surface front over the Florida straits is making no northward expansion if not pressing further south. Any rainfall that was to occur by now per some models over South Florida is not happening, or rather is occurring offshore with steering in the mid-levels in this area from the WSW (away from shore). Only low topped showers emanating down wind of the Bahamas will be able to make it to shore in this area and those are not able to materialize due to extensive cloud cover.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE and LDIS REAL TIME SHOWS an inverted mid level trough extending from the Yucatan into the South Central Gulf. This COULD be a big player for the North Half of the state on Monday. Snow can be seen in this image over Pennsylvania, SE NY, and New England likely helping to strengthen the surface high due to cold air at the surface. Yellow arrows show the southern branch jet and new approaching polar jet behind low pressure near Wisconsin seen in the clouds there but not drawn in.

One school of thought is that the inverted trough of low pressure will continue to enhance. Strengthening high pressure over the mid Atlantic into the Southeast States will create a temporary 'block' and allow the jet stream from the poles to drop toward the North Central Gulf and pick this area up and swoop this area across All of North Central from JAX to Port Canaveral, creating rainfall due to isentropic lift. But will the jet phase with the southern branch and allow this to happen, or will they phase and stay further north and never pick up whatever is developing in the central gulf...OR, will they never phase at all?!


The other school of thought is that what is in the GULF has no effect, but rather general lifting of the lower pressure from the old frontal boundary and southward into the Caribbean brings that boundary  further north toward Lake Okeechobee.  This in turn takes all the rainfall to the southern 1/3 of the state, quite the opposite result. 


And finally, another school of thought shows neither to occur, possibly because the surface high pressure building south which would be indicative of the rising surface pressures and a low temperature in Crestview, Florida this morning of 32F, colder than that of where it snowed in White Plains , NY and NYC...would preclude the surface front over the Florida Straits from lifting north significantly as well as from allowing the digging upper level trough coming out of Canada to have a substantial affect with the already very stable low level layer in place across Florida (and dry to boot).


In either case, there is a chance of rain showers almost anywhere tonight through sunset Monday but where any low level boundaries will be in place and how much moisture at the NECESSARY levels of the atmosphere for rain to occur coincident with any vort maxes coming either out of the NW Caribbean (South Florida) or the Gulf (North Florida) remains   big questions.


For these reasons, I'm not actually forecasting any bulls eye's for big rains as of noon on this Sunday, October 30th. Another post will follow toward evening as more morning model runs become available. To state 'a case'.


Especially since by  now big changes in the atmosphere over Florida are not forecast to begin until after 8PM no matter which model is used. In short, the Record Snow Event for the far Northeast States might have had bigger impacts than models figured it would, namely because so much snow fell. This would not be accounted for in even the morning model runs, and might not be fully accounted for until runs become available until the 8pm soundings are made and correlated with the latest trends at the surface during daylight.  ..with the models containing that information not being available until well past midnight. By that time, whatever is going to happen (or not happen) will already have become evident on radar and satellite imagery. 


The only trend verifying so far as of noon is that some better moisture is working north in the lower levels, but in order for any substantially workable moisture to get north of South Florida it has to figuratively 'go around the block, in the back door, then re-enter through the front door' to get further north...a very long a drawn out process..will this process be able to take place before the upper level trough by passes the state altogether? 

Continued Cloudy Through Sunset, Possible Thunder Southeast

915AM Surface chart from Melbourne's Local Data Integration System shows a surface low over North Central Brevard County with a temporarily stationary surface front located as shown. This low is gradually stacking up into the mid-levels through 10,000 and will waver near the location of this low until mid-afternoon. Drizzle could occur over East Central from time to time with a better chance of rain shown in green  and thunder in the white area after noon time through  5pm.   The color coding is surface temperatures with the key shown toward the right side.

At 850mb,   the same low with the fronts shown in black at this level also is noted. The green lines indicating plentiful moisture remaining in the low levels. This moistures will slowly erode from the West later today, with clearing from the NW to ESE during the afternoon. Also noted above is that there was a tornado warning issued around 827AM this morning for a small but rotating storm east of Lake Okeechobee which has since moved offshore. So far, it does not look like a re-occurrence of this type of activity will occur over South Florida later today based on the wind fields taking shape. 

The low over East Central Florida should strengthen a bit more as it moves to the east during the early afternoon, abetted by upper level divergence. This divergence should be able to keep the cloud cover in place as well, especially since PWAT continues over 2" over Central and South Florida, and even where it is not that moist, there is ample moisture in the critical area between the LCL, Lifted Condenstation Level, and LFC, Level of Free Convection,  to generate clouds. These have already formed well to the west and north once the sun came up where it was previously clear.

Latest visible satellite image shows the abundant cloud cover. Most of the region from JAX to Gainvesville should start to clear out later this afternoon after peak heating, with the clearing line making it toward Central by Sunset ..but the areas along US1 from Volusia and South toward Lake Okeechobee and South Florida could remain mostly cloudy at least. 

OVERNIGHT: Big rains with thunder occurred over South Florida as two or more vorticity maxes crossed this area and Central. The one over South Florida had warmer dewpoint air and thus more instability to work with, thus the lightning. Further north toward Central, the air was more stable resulting in more of an over running stratiform type rain. Very early this morning another vort max crossed Central and exited near Port Canaveral, producing a second round of moderate to heavy rainfall in tandem with another further south.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy, with some drizzle possible in isolated fashion with more bona fide showers and possible thunder over SE Florida east and south of Lake Okeechobee and into the Everglades as well as over the Keys. The surface and mid-level low will pull off the east and NE later today. ..meanwhile, a strengthening low off the coast of Maryland will 'bomb out', with increasing winds, moisture, and cold air in place resulting in Snow across Eastern PA, SE NY, and New England with temperatures holding in the 30Fs. This low will parallel the NE coast with snows spreading toward Maine tomorrow. While this low is deepening, the surface front further south will be quasi-stationary until that low further north starts to move north and east a bit.


Meanwhile, the front will clear Central Brevard between the hours of 1:30-300pm in earnest, followed by a burst of NNW wind nearly parallel to the coast running down Flagler, Volusia and North Brevard by late afternoon. This surge could induce another shot of brief rain east of US1 in North Brevard toward far Eastern SE Volusia. Meanwhile, South Florida will be have a chance of thunderstorms about that same time. Highs today remaining in the lower 70Fs falling into the mid-upper 60Fs north of Port Canaveral by mid-afternoon. Highs in South Florida could reach the low 80Fs if there are enough cloud breaks. The front should clear Miami by 7pm give or take an hour, with thunder chances over by 6pm. Rain clears this area for the time being until tomorrow.


SUNDAY: Overnight, winds will remain steady and breezy from the NNW gradually veering to the N to NNE. Moisture could remain in place from Southern Brevard and South to Key Large and the Keys, so cloudy skies could remain a problem. There will still be enough moisture in the lower levels, especially as the wind becomes more NE-ENE later in the day for scattered to broken cloud cover further north toward the Magic Dividing line running form Port Canaveral to Orlando to Tampa as well. .with highs possibly only in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs, north of the Beach Line but warming toward the upper 70Fs South Florida with lower to mid-70Fs up and down A1A from Volusia and South, but fingers crossed on that one (fearing upper 60Fs). Only chance of rain on Sunday earlier will be over the Keys but as winds become more NE-ENE during the day some sprinkles could re-emerge under the clouds almost anywhere.


SUNDAY OVERNIGHT/MONDAY:  Thinking cap time once again. Not going to touch on the finer details for this time frame since although model guidance is close on the timing of a retrogression back to Peninsular pattern similar to last night, there are some finer details regarding where the best chance of rain will occur. The GFS is showing an area of rain developing near the SE Coast and working north as another low pressure area develops...with the highest rainfall totals over Martin/St. Lucie/toward Indian River Counties..with a newer run now showing  as far north as extreme eastern Brevard to the Port. The GFS handled the events of last night fairly well, whereas both the short term Rapid Update Cycle model and the NAM showed the highest rainfall to occur over a band across Central Florida. Much of this was likely due to the temperature profiles of the atmosphere, with the latter two stressing isentropic lift whereas the GFS was based more upon thermodynamics, which ended up being the better option. So far, the NAM is again showing Central for the highest rainfall on Monday. and the GFS is playing a repeat of last night. I'm not so sure that will be the case just yet, but chances probably will favor the GFS solution if for no other reason than how well this model has done the past few months over Florida vs. the NAM which I refused to acknowledge once it proved to have a bad track record by Mid-July .  This model did quite well last winter so I keep going back to it to see when it might start to strike gold again.


It did well with all the other features such as wind fields and temperatures, it is the placement of precipitation that has been the bust. It was surprising to the see the short term RUC bust as well, so can't knock it all that bad...it had something going, but it never happened in reality.


OTHERWISE: In either case, rain chances increase from south to north over night Sunday, with the bulk of the rainfall on Monday in either case to occur along and South of I-4. Both models now intersect though that the east coast from North Brevard to Miami will have rain in some form or another. Thunder could again come into play (elevated), but low level instability will likely be lacking every where other than in Dade County due to continued cloud cover. This instability would be advected into Dade and perhaps Broward by the closer proximity of the warmer Gulf Stream waters around South Florida. On the other hand, the NAM believes it will be the colder air aloft over Central mixing in the mid-levels along a mid-level boundary that will cause the rains over Central.


BEYOND: Either way, Monday's rain will be a daytime event, ending shortly before dark or toward mid-evening. On shore winds from the NNE-NE following almost immediate with no big cool down except over North Florida. Lows along the East Coast in the mid 60Fs, but upper 60Fs toward Central Brevard and 70Fs further South neat the Coast.  Continued breezy onshore winds gradually veering to ENE through Wednesday into Thursday and 'deceasing'  by Friday with a chance of coastal sprinkles almost anytime after sunrise Wednesday through Friday as temperatures slowly warm, with 70Fs prevalent along the east coast round the 24 hour clock, with lower 80Fs inland and west.  


Rain chances decrease and temperatures warm toward next weekend...
with possible big changes in store, especially toward the Texas Gulf Coast/Eastern Texas/and parts of the Deep South heading into the second week in November. Indicators are pointing toward a potential severe weather event in the next 7-10 days.. 


No big cool downs are shown by the latest GFS way out in dreamland time zone, but that could change. So far, it is showing nothing but warmer air for the Southern 2/3rds of the state heading toward mid-November.   

Continued Cloudy With Rain Chance Today/Tonight

Image shows Depression Rina near the NE Tip of the Yucatan, which looks less than a depression this hour. The heavier rain and some thunder is well to the NNE of what was Rita. It looks more like that is what is left of the upper portions of Rita is this activity further north with only a surface circulation left behind further south. More on Rita below.
Otherwise, cold front is moving through the NW Gulf of Mexico. Area of inverted low pressure in the Central Gulf ahead of the front where sea surface temperatures are warmest with a tiny circulation on the north end well south of Mobile, AL.

TODAY: Considerable cloudiness across the peninsula especially all central portions, less so South Florida. The upper level portion of Rita has detached (or de-coupled) from the surface circulation and based on some of the 'other' tracking models, will cross Central or South Central tonight if it gets that far. Area of convection in the Gulf is occurring over the warmest Gulf waters in an area of better low level convergence..with Deep Layer Mean winds aloft steering the cloud tops across the Florida Peninsula into an area of upper level divergence. This activity has been slowly crawly  north and eastward, but not sure how long this will last before reaching land..but I suspect it will cease tonight. Otherwise, temperatures are in the mid-80Fs over South FLorida with mainly mid-upper 70Fs elsewhere.


Taking the optimistic 'less rain' slant today based on trends and disregarding all of the models as far as rain fields goes. Overall, South Florida is the most unstable from near Port Charolette to West Palm and South for storms. However, lapse rates in this area are horrible (some warmer air aloft) as well as a dry mid-layer region per the MIA sounding with no apparent triggers to set storms off. If that aspect of the atmosphere down in this region changes, thunder could easily occur. BUT, high clouds from the Gulf could stabilize the atmosphere here, so my line of thinking is that although thunder is possible here, it might not occur. Latest Meso analysis on the SPC website definitely would give cause to reason at least the chance though if it is correct.  

Rina is the lavender "L". Note the convergence is all to the north of the circulation shown by those light blue lines. This is where storms have been going up. All the divergence is over Florida though..perfect ingredients over the state for cirrus clouds. Rina has nothing going for it now, and would expect it will be close to gone by tonight unless it races toward the SSE, but even so, it still has a loft of upper level shear to contend with, so not expecting a rebirth.

Elsewhere, convective inhibition and a stable environment will yield mainly only elevated light rain fall in patches.  Note the area of low pressure in the Gulf. This will be forced eastward and become involved with the actual cold frontal boundary tonight which will press  across the Panhandle and into Central Florida by late morning on Saturday. Thus, at least a chance of rain remains across Central where the most northern extent of the deeper moisture managed to advect.  Best chance of rain between 6pm toinght through noon Saturday seems to be in the area in Green shown in the first  image (although, it might need to another 50 miles further north on the north side),  rain eneding from north to south from sunrise to noon,  reaching South Central portions solely by early afternoon. Rainfall tapering off the further south the front goes after 4pm, with the actual front clearing South Florida shortly after sunset Saturday.


Behind the front, temperatures will be in the mid-upper 60Fs for lows (cooler west of I-95), with highs in the 70Fs. Might not be much clearing over South Florida on Sunday, with a much better chance from Brevard County and north, although some strato cumulus clouds could advect in along the coast accompanied by some alto-cumulus along with breezy N-NNE winds by Sunday afternoon.


Sunday night, the next system in the gravy train of impulses will bottom out well north of the state, with the Southern Branch jet still across Central Florida. Net result will be to buckle north the low level flow bringing a return to moisture as far north as a line running from North Volusia toward Brooksville, with the deeper moisture running South of I-4 in Volusia to the north side of Orlando and toward North Tampa Bay.


It appears the best chance of rain with this moisture surge will be along a line running along the Beach line, through Orlando and on  to Tampa Bay because by this time upper level temperatures will have cooled with passage of the earlier cold front (the upper level heights will have lowered), yet surface temperatures will remain relatively warm. Moderate mid-level lift could induce some moderate rainfall here with some rumbles once the moisture works north and under the cooler air aloft toward sunset Sunday night through mid-afternoon Monday. Another impulse to the north will push this region southward but rain chances should decrease toward Lake Okeechobee due to continued warmer air aloft in this area.


BEYOND: N-NNE winds and breezy Monday becoming more NE-ENE Tuesday into Wednesday. Cooler inland temperatures in the 50Fs, but closer to the mid-upper 60Fs closer to the coast. Afternoon highs in the 70Fs possibly warming to the lower 80Fs late week. Mostly clear mornings with near shore stratocumulus clouds advecting into the coast at times, most likely by Wednesday morning through Thursday night. Perhaps a coastal sprinkle toward Thursday.


NEXT FRONT appears on the backdoor near next Friday. With the wind shift ahead of that boundary rain chances end as the front goes through dry..maybe yet another front after this one as well two days later, which goes through 'dry' as well. No big temperature departures with these fronts, as the Southern Branch jet which will merge with the northern branch at times..both remaining over far North Florida and Georgia.  Continued re-enforcing cold shots though in the NE states with some snows tomorrow then followed by cold rain later in the week, followed by more cold. Looks very negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), being counter-acted by strong La Nina.        

Questions Regarding Second Half of Weekend's Wet Weather Chance

Latest satellite imagery shows weakened Hurricane Rita near the Yucatan. Yellow shows the moisture field in the Caribbean expanding north today. Ridge axis across Central Florida and cold front as shown from Virginia to South Central Texas. Note all the clouds (moisture) behind the front.

Very good weather forecast model agreement this morning with the evolution of events through Mid-Day Saturday. It is from there that the NAM/ECMWF vs. GFS differ in one (going on two) significant aspects which could greatly affect the umbrella requirement of the forecast from Central Floridians late Saturday and much of Sunday. For South Florida, there really is no impact (keep an umbrella handy for starters as it looks now). The overall differentiation between these models being the amount of moisture behind the surface cold front and how far south the front actually gets.  The other key aspect is how the GFS treats what is left of Rita in the Western Gulf. 


The GFS refuses to give up on the ship on the storm, and as such, the low pressure field surrounding the storm does not expand as deeply northward into the Central Gulf of Mexico but remains more compact Toward South Florida and the Caribbean. This in turn permits a clean frontal passage by mid-afternoon across Central.


On the other hand the NAM/ECMWF opens up the pressure field more which results in a discrepancy on how well the actua surface boundary through the bottom 3000 ft of the atmosphere can work down the peninsula on Saturday. The GFS takes the boundary clear through past the tip of the state, whereas the NAM hangs it up across Central for 18 hours, and continues to hang up the trough across South Central in the mid-levels even after passage of the front.


Otherwise, they are in close agreement. This disparity mainly only affects residents along Coastal Brevard/Indian River/St. Lucie and perhaps Martin in terms of whether it will rain late Saturday through Sunday. If the GFS is correct, no rain in those locations...on the other hand...say no more. 

MORNING Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) Model shows the Jet Stream. The southern branch jet is lifting north for the first time in over two weeks, in fact, it hasn't been this far north for I can't remember when by tonight. The northern branch is strongly across the NE States. Another slug of high wind speeds aloft await in Canada and are not shown. The upper level trough is shown across Texas. This configuration will slow down the southern end of the front from digging into the Gulf into Friday.

AREAS TO WATCH for what might directly or indirectly instigate rainfall through Saturday and possibly into Monday for parts of Central and South . Satellite derived imagery is showing the vorticity (wind energy in simplest terms) across the SW Gulf. The GFS did not pick this up very well. There is another area over the Bahamas that should eventually work north tomorrow once the ridge across Central Florida moves out to sea and drops further south. The ECMWF and FIM were really latching on to not only this vorticity, but also that associated with the frontal boundary last night. Note the big red area over SW Texas.
Some of this energy is expected to cross North and North Central on Saturday. ..and possibly again on Monday or maybe even Sunday (South Florida). But don't forget about that area over the Bahamas, with more entering the Eastern Caribbean  and working west to the Central Caribbean.

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy with more clouds over South Florida as deeper atmospheric moisture builds north. The deeper (but not ultimately the most moist air) will reach the Beachline corridor to Tampa by Sunset or sooner and stall there for the overnight, gradually working toward I-4 and perhaps I-10 by later Friday.  Best chance of rain today from West Palm and South, mainly showers but perhaps thunder over the Everglades to extreme SW Florida. Highs in the low 80Fs with pockets of mid 80Fs. Light wind.


FRIDAY: Showers remain over the South as frontal boundary approaches. Remember most of the moisture with the front is located behind it as shown in the first image (satellite), but moisture will have worked well far north from the Tropics as well by this time late Friday into Saturday. Rainfall limited by lack of dynamics as mid level ridge hangs on. Light wind.


OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Frontal boundary works down the state, possibly getting south of Dead Central by early -mid afternoon Saturday, Good chance of rain and possibly some isolated elevated thunder both ahead of the front and immediately behind it. Rain ending north Florida by noon. Chances of elevated thunder near the east coast. No severe weather expected as of yet but not quite 100% guaranteed. 


BEYOND: Stopping here for the forecast, but a discussion concerning 'why' seems warranted.


GFS MODEL: Front clears the state by late Saturday with strong NNE-NE winds beyind the boundary along the east coast. Winds 22G32 by Sunday morning throughout the day NE-East Central Florida, but dry Saturday night through the first half of Sunday north of Ft. Pierce.


NAM/EURO: Front gets hung up across Central  with rain chances AND wind near the coast. Likely induced by instability over the Gulf Stream waters and strong surface winds blowing across the low level instability. Front gets to far South Florida with the mid-level trough hanging up near Lake Okeechobee leaving Central (mainly SOUTH of Route 50) in a deformation zone. Showers right at the coast die off after reaching the coast (beyond I-95). Winds will be blowing down the east coast from off the coast of New England after frontal passage. This should allow ocean temperatures to cool to the north side of the Cape, but should be blocked from cooling on the south side of the CAPE this go around. If so, the NAM might have something going for it for rain chances from Port Canaveral and South along the Coast on Sunday...but such fine details at this point? Not so sure about that. I've noticed that The Weather Channel seems to be favoring the NAM/ECMWF solution of continued wet. Thinking that the more conservative and better bet for now is to run with the GFS.


Both models then bring another surge of moisture northward  from across the South Half of the state on Monday as the boundary buckles  with more rain chances mainly along and south of Route 46 toward Southern Volusia. Strong or breezy ENE winds Continue..perhaps veering to the ESE on Monday and weakening. Low pressure forms off East Central (somewhere) in the Atlantic downwind of the Gulf Stream and dragging the front back south and through the state Monday night.


BEYOND MONDAY: Will run with the majority that rain chances will end Monday night, although the FIM Experimental suggests a quick return to windy sprinkles along the East Coast by Tuesday. The GFS hedges more toward Wednesday and Beyond for this to occur.


TEMPERATURES: No cold air is expected. With N-NE  winds blowing across the Ocean South of the Cape with the coolest air in the 50Fs (at least) limited to NW Florida south toward Gainesville and the interior toward West Central north of Tampa. Highs and lows in the 70Fs, with 60Fs inland.


IN short, the big question is rainfall chances late Saturday through the first half of Sunday East Central. The other question is how quickly rain shower chances (likely only trace amounts) re-emerge early to mid week next week.

Chances of Rain Increase This Weekend

HURRICANE RINA: Rina is in the center of this image. Note that one any northward track it will encounter more and more shear . Additionally, it will begin to interact with land on a continue Westward course of any fashion, and likely begin to entrain the dry air shown in orange over the Yucatan. The storm is best off it were to stay but, it is moving away from the best Ocean Heat Content waters, so expect it to be downgraded today.

TODAY: High pressure has built rapidly eastward since yesterday over the Deep South and into the Atlantic. It is also sinking southward a bit as well as anticipated. Early morning inverted coastal trough set up with the deeper easterly winds, with lows at the coast in the mid-70Fs where as inland temperatures were in the lower to mid 60Fs in north winds on the front side of the inverted trough. With daybreak, the inverted trough washed out and winds subsided as the north half of the state is more entrenched within the high pressure rather than being in gradient flow with low pressure over the Caribbean.  


There is an impressive inversion at all the locations resulting in broad but flat topped stratocumulus clouds resulting in some sprinkles, but heating of the day in an other wise cloud free sky is eroding those away. It appears per satellite imagery that small cumulus clouds are replacing these clouds in many locations. Guidance up until this morning indicated that some showers could occur near coastal Brevard after dark and north into Volusia which looks 'possible', but other wise another mild night in store.


THURSDAY: Much warmer all areas with highs in the low-mid 80Fs and a more southerly surface flow while high pressure persists across the state in the Mid-Levels. Deeper atmospheric moisture from far South Florida should work as far as Dead Central by sunset, but very poor lapse rates seems to inhibit a broad coverage of showers/storms despite ample moisture. Looks more like clouds once again over showers until later in the day working from Southern Portions toward Central Thursday night into Friday.


FRIDAY-SATURDAY Frontal boundary that has emerged from the Rockies is really dragging its "Southern End Heals" as the ridge that has moved into the Atlantic continuously rebuilds back toward the west across Florida and the Gulf. The front gets stretched thin buat manages to slide into North Florida and slowly south to Central where it remains until late Saturday. Best chance of rain for the peninsula on this day, but any Thunder appears to be restricted to far south Florida where low level winds converge more and instability will be the greatest. For good precautionary measure, could through in thunder as far north as Southern Osceola over toward Vero. Otherwise, heading into Saturday it appears the best chance of rain will be on and behind the front due to isentropic lift over Central, with the boundary and moisture from South Florida working South Through the day.


SUNDAY: Boundary appears will get to the frontal graveyard close the Florida Straits, but a secondary (and stronger system and associated jet stream streak now near the Aleutians (Bay of Alaska) will be dropping into the NW U.S. In response, the front buckles and lifts back north toward Dead Central to just south of I-4 by Monday increasing rain chances once again.


HERE is where the first predicament (of several) comes. The 00z ECMWF (European Model) has the developing low (cyclogenesis) from this newer impulse to occur over the Northern Gulf of Mexico south of Pensacola, whereas the 12Z (8am EDT) GFS run reads, "No Dice, the low will from in the Ohio Valley". Big difference as far as Florida is concerned in terms of any potential 'active weather' vs. the continued " status quo benign" pattern over the state per the past week.  For now, I'm hedging more toward the GFS trend since it also is no longer bringing Rita into the state (amongst other reasons such as continuity from the past 8 days, this model's trends in the past 96 hours, and La Nina climatology).  How strong/deep this secondary trough will eventually get is another matter, so Monday has two strikes against it now in regard to how well the weather for this time frame can be predicted.


BEYOND: Latest GFS is running with a very La Nina like pattern with perhaps a bit of a NAO (Negative Atlantic Oscillation) along the  NE U.S. Coast, so this region will be host to a variety of forecast conundrums all their own through the weekend and into next week if the NAO does appear to be developing. Locally, whatever comes out of the next few days and early next week, it appears that the October climatology that I'm most familiar with along coastal East Florida of NNE-ENE winds will prevail other than in the presence of a frontal boundary. This means that cooler ocean temperatures will be drawn down the seaboard, with near shore waters already in the lower 70Fs.  This helps set the stage for inverted coastal troughs with a more direct easterly flow that is at least 8,000 ft deep and not too strong. Thus, coastal cloudiness from time to time and perhaps some very light rainfall with round the clock 70Fs heading to later next week.


HURRICANE RITA: As of noon when I started writing this post, Rita was in a good position to hold its own strength, but was moving toward water of less Heat Energy as well as getting closer to land. Thus, believe the storm will start to weaken. If it weakens too much, it could get steered into the NE Yucatan and be 'gone', at least for a while. It is a very small storm, so it could weaken quickly. Any distance further from the coast could keep Rita alive and well though. Rita is also heading toward drier air to  its north and could start to entrain some of that drier air. Shear lurks just to the storms north as well, and the further north it progresses the stronger it gets. The GFDL run is now the only model taking it to Florida. With plenty of time to spare, and with the chance of Rita being nothing more than a tropical storm if that were to occur..this should not be a 'major' issue, but is worth watching just in case. 


IN SUMMARY: Much of what the weather will be like Friday through at Least Tuesday remains a difficult reading to make...the Crystal Ball remains foggy. Perhaps it's time to resort to a Snow Globe to shake things up a bit, but the Southern Branch Jet  across the Southern Gulf and Florida is not budging, which has been the biggest thorn in the 'forecast' side. Most of the active weather should be under and south of this feature, which means better rain chances for the Keys from time to time in the next few days. So far, the Friday/Saturday/and Sunday look to be the best days for chances of rain..but decreasing from north to south during this time frame.


*** Per The Weather Channel, Rina had been downgraded as I was getting ready to hit the "send" button.