Potential for Significant Weather Pattern Changes Approaches

There was some widespread fog early today, as can be seen mostly where the yellow line is, but which is now clearing in varying degrees early this afternoon. Some showers possibly today mainly in the green areas but not limited strictly to those areas  

TODAY: Much like yesterday, with very light winds and highs in the mid-upper 70Fs near the beaches and a few degrees warmer away from the coast. Outside of potential clouds and showers as shown above (some is now occurring near and north of West Palm)...quite pleasant.  Otherwise, would expect that tonight we may again see fog as surface winds will be bringing in continued more warm and moist air from the SSE direction.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: A frontal boundary will be gathering shape over the Central Plains and shifting toward the east coast over the weekend into Monday. Until then, really not much change in store with continued light winds, possible showers  mainly South Half until Monday just about any where at anytime but more likely near the coast over night and inland during the day. Weekend will be quite kind other than areas of cloud cover and some showers as noted, sparse.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: The Southern Branch and Northern Branch Jet Streams per the GFS appear will be phasing or coming together the next few days with a larger system pulling south from the Pacific Northwest next week. In turn, the GFS poises the 'by then phased jet streams' to take a hard right to the south into the Deep South toward Florida.

Early portion of Forecast Extended time frame of Jet Stream Winds

By Monday a cold front could be approaching, with some thunder possible along and north of I-4, but so far due to the forecast jet stream position it appears it would be mainly rain showers. Tuesday and into Wednesday shows a much greater chance of thunderstorms potentially as the left exit region of the jet stream pulls out toward the Northeast creating additional lift. Exactly how quickly the associated frontal boundary moves south from Central into South Florida is sketchy with guidance varying anywhere from Wednesday afternoon to as much as nearly 24 hours later. In any case, the period from Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon will only be phase 1 of what could be 2 more fronts (potentially more active) in the following 7-10 days as well.

TEMPERATURES: When  'said front' eventually  goes through (it could stall near Central Tuesday for a good 24 hours), the temperature shift is nothing beyond what we've already experienced. The GFS appears to suggest this first front might get well south of the peninsula but then get lifted back north 3 -4 days later as yet another storm system develops somewhere near the Northern Gulf or along the Gulf coast 'somewhere'. 

Another potential rainmaker moves through and then this same scenario repeats itself yet again 3 days later. Granted, this is well out in time, but there has been quite a bit of consistency in the overall occurrence of said events with  timing variations running vastly different from model run to model run as would be expected so far down the line from now.  

Overall, it looks like a big change in the pattern is in store which will become most noticeable Monday and Tuesday afternoons as winds during the day become SW rather than from off the ocean, and afternoon highs approach the low-mid 80Fs. 

STORMS: I would not be surprised if we will need to  be watching for one if not two severe weather potential days coming between the 11th and the 18th.

===================Random  Events of Note =============
This year, we also have lights of a celestial kind. The intense Geminid meteor shower begins at 8:00 P.M. on the night of the 13th and, thanks to a moonless night, will fill the sky undiminished by lunar light

The earliest winter since 1896 arrives with the Winter Solstice at 6:12 A.M. (EST) on the 21st. Chanukah begins  at sundown this Saturday.

Chance or Measureable Rain on Wednesday, Warmer by Mid-Next Week

Changes ahead from a temperature and moisture perspective

 

TODAY: Although off and on clouds will be in the picture, the outlook for today looks predominantly dry with similar temperatures to recent days.

 

WEDNESDAY: Guidance up to this point indicates a pocket of moisture from the northern Bahamas will approach South Central and work up the east coast toward North Central interior during the day Wednesday along with minimal instability and very cold air aloft. This appears will or could result in increasing measurable rain chances, and who knows, maybe a distant rumble aloft. Otherwise, winds will be easterly and continue as such in days to follow with mild temperatures in the upper 60Fs to near 70F becoming more likely yet so by the weekend, and humid as well.

 

BEYOND: The next frontal boundary is well far off, but with it's approach, high pressure will be positioned to the east so as to bring a more Southeasterly component to the winds bring warm and moist air influx. By the weekend an inverted east coast trough is shown to be in place as another patch of moisture surges in. Convergence along this boundary will increase both cloud cover and shower chances. At this point, it appears they will be of the low topped variety, meaning mostly light sprinkles would be the rule not unlike recent days, only more of it, with chances of measureable rain also in the cards.  Although that moisture will eventually rotate out of the picture the overall outlook shows for more moisture in place than say, what we will have today and what has been in place in recent days. That means that rainfall or no rainfall, increasing humidity holding overnight low temperatures up with little variability during the day, 70Fs ruling the roost for the most part, especially along the coast from the Cape and south, with day time highs approaching the lower 80Fs into the interior and western portion of the state.

 

As the next true front finally makes its approach well into mid next week surface winds could become more SSW with temperatures increasing most everywhere before it skirts by and shifts us back to the pattern much like what we will see today.

 

Guidance has continuously been shifting the next frontal passage out further in time. What was first a true cold front to occur around the 12th, moved out to the 15th, and is now out to the 18th. I suspect that somewhere toward the third week of December after the 16th we might run into a stormy period for the Deep South, but whether Florida will fall into the scene on a severe weather outbreak so far is a bit uncertain. 

Cold front Overnight To Have Near Zero Influence Temperature/Rain Wise

Frontal Boundary as noted above will enter Central zones tonight. The boundary will grow increasingly diffuse and broaden during it's passage; perhaps a few rains could fall near the coast from the Cape and North, but all in all this of no nor should be a concern tonight south of I-4

TODAY: Off and on clouds today and mild temperatures with highs held a tad at bay due to cloud coverage with highs in the low to mid 70Fs and light to near calm winds. The front will grow broader with impacts weakening as it proceeds eastward tonight. So slow will be the passage that high pressure to the west will be quickly on its heels to the north with weak onshore flow ensuing right to or nearly so after passage keeping temperatures moderate as opposed to those stiff NW winds experienced during those visits from Jack Frost.

BEYOND: Hardly is there yet another front to be seen in regard to Florida for nearly a week beyond today, and even so, that front has been shown to have not much more than potentially a one day temperature impact if even.  Wind will be NE-ENE becoming easterly with time with 24 hour temperature variations east of I-95 and especially along A1A quite minimal hovering around the 67F - 73F zone. Inland temperatures will fall more over night, and warm more during the day away from the now cooling ocean waters. Off and on clouds appear will be in the cards as opposed to absolutely clear skies, but that too could change for the improvement. No rain foreseen otherwise...although some minor cooling could occur as a result of upper level height falls, minus an actual frontal boundary.

GREATER BEYOND: Yet still, projection has been for no 'big sig' cool downs to mid December. Granted, that is much too far off to hold fast on to in confidence; but nonetheless, has been shown 4 times out of 6 to be the trend in the long range GFS model runs for several days now. 

Potential For Warmer Days Ahead Next Week, Beyond

A few consecutive model runs are showing the low level heating from Mexico to Extreme SW Texas will elevate to the 'mid levels' in the next 5 days and then translate ENE ward mid week next week
resulting in 'temperturally inverted' cold frontal passages. This image is for the 850mb height, or around 5000 feet AGL (above ground level)

MORNING TEMPS BEFORE SUNRISE AROUND 5 AM:
Note the effect of a light west to near calm wind east of the intracoastal waterways at Patrick AFB.

This is likely the case up and down the east coast from Cape Canaveral to the Keys. Note it is cooler in West Kendall than at PAFB. This is not unusual.

LAKELAND CLEAR 43
BARTOW FAIR 43
OKEECHOBEE CLEAR 43  

PATRICK AFB CLEAR 55  (note effect east of the rivers)

MELBOURNE CLEAR 46 
VERO BEACH CLEAR 45
FT PIERCE CLEAR 43  

WEST KENDALL   CLEAR     52  
HOMESTEAD      CLEAR     54    

PUNTA GORDA    CLEAR     49   
FT MYERS       CLEAR     51   SOUTHWEST INTL CLEAR     48   

TODAY-SUNDAY: Continued very pleasant with slightly below normal temperatures, light winds. A frontal passage will occur today during the mid-afternoon, possibly with some clouds, but all in all the effect will be to infiltrate cooler air into the Panhandle and eventually toward the West side of the state by Sunday morning, where it could be the coolest morning yet for those areas.  Again, the warmest zones should be along the immediate east coast from the Cape and southward, with little change from those of this morning's readings.

Car Wash Mural, Cocoa Beach, Florida

BEYOND: Meanwhile, per guidance trends, heights in the mid levels will, if all goes according to plan, will be rising in response to heating over Mexico and into extreme SW Texas (at the lower levels). As each consecutive frontal/trough progresses across the country's mid section this warm air will be pulled east ward.

The net effect is that although we could still see some rain or increased cloud coverage on Tuesday afternoon (rain so far most likely to occur over the South Half of the state from the Cape toward South Tampa Bay and South toward Lake 'Okeebee', the NW winds to follow will actually be warmer BEHIND the front than the will be with the west winds before the front passes Tuesday morning.  Another front is then expected to follow several days beyond Tuesday with the same effect. In that regard, 'temperaturally inverted' cold fronts, or rather, cold fronts acting almost as loosely phrased, 'warm fronts' by virtue that they will be harboring in warmer air from Mexico seems to be the trend.

In Summary, the coldest days after Sunday and Monday morning from a state wide perspective should be ending, with highs returning to normal to slightly above normal in a few locations being possible during the first week of December. No big frontal passages so far are foreseen will out to 12 days.

Happy Giving Thanks Day, Pleasantly Cool Continues

Although not exactly correct as of this typing, we can see how by in large the cooler temperatures are filtering toward the west side of the state toward SW Florida this morning. This is a very typical cool to cold weather pattern in drainage flow like scenarios. This will again repeat going into early next week

HAPPY THANKSGIVING: Cool today through Saturday with highs potentially in the lower 70Fs, but even so, those readings will be for only a relatively brief period with the predominant range in the mid to upper 60Fs with northerly winds, most breezy during thermal mixing hours of 1 - 4pm along open areas, especially near water ways. Otherwise, skies clear to scattered stratocumulus crumbs.

FRIDAY- SATURDAY: Very little change with over night lows warmest along A1A from the Cape and South toward the Keys.  A front is in the making to pass through on Saturday afternoon, and rain chances look best in association with that boundary across Central and South Central Florida, mainly south of I-4 and north of Lake Okeechobee. Warmer on Tuesday prior to frontal passage, but that will be it for many days to come before another front again approaches repeating the same cycle we are currently endowed with.

Ocean temperatures are cooling more and more, thanks possibly due to repeated low pressure systems forming well to the east of the state and drawing NNE flow on their west sides with counterclockwise circulations around them along the U.S. East coast southward...evoking the cooler waters to work as far south as Volusia County especially. This could put a crimp in our style for folks in North Brevard northward near the coast especially later into the winter and early spring in regard to afternoon high temperatures when north to northeast winds are present as waters take longer to warm in responding to ambient outside air temperatures.

  COCOA BEACH ART FESTIVAL THIS WEEKEND: Cool with a northerly type breeze, mostly sunny and highs in the upper 60Fs to near 72F.

On The Cool Side, Becoming a Bit Cooler By Sunday

What appears might be a 700mb trough swinging through Central Florida today will reinforce the conditions that are already in place. Namely, breezy N - NNW winds. Note it is mostly clear across much of the state

TODAY: Rather cool and breezy, especially near waterways with highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs, some mid 70Fs possible mainly South 1/2

THANKSGIVING: Very similar to today, with perhaps some clouds near the coast but otherwise quite pleasant.

BEYOND: Not many changes foreseen in quite sometime as another boundary presses down the state around Saturday into Sunday. Cool mornings in the upper 40Fs with that passage toward SW Florida with the warmest spots in the state from Canaveral south to the Keys right along A1A and then toward US1 from Broward County and South.

NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN?: Perhaps middle of NEXT Week, but even if so, only a small chance. Only the time frame around next Tuesday appears to show any true warming, to last only about a day before another front comes through. Otherwise, before that time coastal over night lows will remain warmest near the beaches as winds become more easterly to ESE come around Tuesday or so.

Continued Cool Into Next Week, Thanksgiving Special

Low pressure to the east of Florida shown. Guidance shows it to be moving toward the ENE-NE today, yet that is not the motion it is taking as noted in the red arrows. Cool air coming off the warmer Gulf Stream water is likely contributing to the very shallow cloud deck of low cloud heights (and bases), keeping out sunshine today. 

TODAY -TUESDAY: Continued cloudy in most areas as indicated by the above image. THe clouds could work a bit further south, but I do not have much hopes in them breaking up before dark, IF even by tomorrow. There could be clearing later this evening, but whether or not they will remain tomorrow is bit up in the air. Best hope is cleared by morning, but indications are this might hold off until later to mid afternoon. Fingers crossed because other wise it will be cool with highs under the clouds in the low 60Fs and some upper 50Fs, much warmer in the sunshine.

WEDNESDAY: The low will be moving well away by this time so would anticipate that skies will improve; temperatures not so much so with continuing North to NNW flow developing with the shortest days of the year approaching from the 21st November through 21 January.

THANKSGIVING:  In that regard, Thanksgiving will have light winds unless there is full sunshine, at which point mixing will stir the pot up a bit. Open windows on This Day of Thanks Commemorating Arrival at the new "Promised Land" with the locals as recognized as the First Supper with the Lord should be nice. 

The First Thanksgiving

1. The First Thanksgiving Proclamation (June 20, 1676)
2. Understanding Thanksgiving
3. Congressional Record, September 25, 1789
4. A NATIONAL THANKSGIVING
5. Abraham Lincoln (October 3, 1863, passed by an Act of Congress.)

The Pilgrims were Separatists, America’s Calvinist Protestants, who rejected the institutional Church of England. They believed that the worship of God must originate in the inner man, and that corporate forms of worship prescribed by man i

nterfered with the establishment of a true relationship with God. The Separatists used the term “church” to refer to the people, the Body of Christ, not to a building or institution. As their Pastor John Robinson said, “[When two or three are] gathered in the name of Christ by a covenant made to walk in all the way of God known unto them as a church .”

THE FIRST THANKSGIVING PROCLAMATION – JUNE 20, 1676: “The Holy God having by a long and Continual Series of his Afflictive dispensations in and by the present War with the Heathen Natives of this land, written and brought to pass bitter things against his own Covenant people in this wilderness, yet so that we evidently discern that in the midst of his judgments he hath remembered mercy, having remembered his Footstool in the day of his sore displeasure against us for our sins, with many singular Intimations of his Fatherly Compassion, and regard; reserving many of our Towns from Desolation Threatened, and attempted by the Enemy, and giving us especially of late with many of our Confederates many signal Advantages against them, without such Disadvantage to ourselves as formerly we have been sensible of, if it be the Lord’s mercy that we are not consumed, It certainly bespeaks our positive Thankfulness, when our Enemies are in any measure disappointed or destroyed; and fearing the Lord should take notice under so many Intimations of his returning mercy, we should be found an Insensible people, as not standing before Him with thanksgiving, as well as lading him with our Complaints in the time of pressing Afflictions.”

_______________________________________________________

The First Thanksgiving Proclamation (June 20, 1676)

On June 20, 1676, the governing council of Charlestown, Massachusetts, held a meeting to determine how best to express thanks for the good fortune that had seen their community securely established. By unanimous vote they instructed Edward Rawson, the clerk, to proclaim June 29 as a day of thanksgiving, our first.

__________________________________________

Understanding Thanksgiving

The celebration we now popularly regard as the “First Thanksgiving” was the Pilgrims’ three-day feast celebrated in early November of 1621 (although a day of thanks in America was observed in Virginia at Cape Henry in 1607). The first Thanksgiving to God in the Calvinist tradition in Plymouth Colony was actually celebrated during the summer of 1623, when the colonists declared a Thanksgiving holiday after their crops were saved by much-needed rainfall.

The Pilgrims left Plymouth, England, on September 6, 1620, sailing for a new world that offered the promise of both civil and religious liberty. The Pilgrims had earlier left England in 1608, as the Church of England had curtailed their freedom to worship according to their individual consciences.

The Pilgrims had settled in Holland for twelve years, where they found spiritual liberty in the midst of a disjointed economy (which failed to provide adequate compensation for their labors) and a dissolute, degraded, corrupt culture (which tempted their children to stray from faith). For almost three months, 102 seafarers braved harsh elements to arrive off the coast of what is now Massachusetts, in late November of 1620. 

On December 11, prior to disembarking at Plymouth Rock, they signed the “Mayflower Compact,” America’s original document of civil government and the first to introduce self-government. While still anchored at Provincetown harbor, their Pastor John Robinson counseled, “You are become a body politic … and are to have only them for your… governors which yourselves shall make choice of.”

Upon landing in America, the Pilgrims conducted a prayer service, then quickly turned to building shelters. Starvation and sickness during the ensuing New England winter killed almost half their population, but through prayer and hard work, with the assistance of their Indian friends, the Pilgrims reaped a rich harvest in the summer of 1621. Most of what we know about the Pilgrim Thanksgiving of 1621 comes from original accounts of the young colony’s leaders, Governor William Bradford and Master Edward Winslow, in their own hand.

 “They begane now to gather in ye small harvest they had, and to fitte up their houses and dwellings against winter, being well recovered in health & strenght, and had all things in good plenty; for some were thus imployed in affairs abroad, others were excersised in fishing, aboute codd, & bass, & other fish, of which yey tooke good store, of which every family had their portion. All ye somer ther was no wante. And now begane to come in store of foule, as winter aproached, of which this place did abound when they came first (but afterward decreased by degree). And besids water foule, ther was great store of wild Turkies, of which they took many, besids venison, &c. Besids they had aboute a peck a meale a weeke to a person, or now since harvest, Indean corne to yt proportion. Which made many afterwards write so largly of their plenty hear to their freinds in England, which were not fained, but true reports.”    -   W.B. (William Bradford)

“Our Corne did proue well, & God be praysed, we had a good increase of Indian Corne, and our Barly indifferent good, but our Pease not worth the gathering, for we feared they were too late sowne, they came vp very well, and blossomed, but the Sunne parched them in the blossome; our harvest being gotten in, our Governour sent foure men on fowling, that so we might after a more speciall manner reioyce together, after we had gathered the fruit of our labors; they foure in one day killed as much fowle, as with a little helpe beside, served the Company almost a weeke, at which time amongst other Recreations, we exercised our Armes, many of the Indians coming amongst vs, and among the rest their greatest King Massasoyt, with some nintie men, whom for three dayes we entertained and feasted, and they went out and killed fiue Deere, which they brought to the Plantation and bestowed upon our Governour, and upon the Captaine, and others. And although it be not alwayes so plentifull, as it was at this time with vs, yet by the goodneses of God, we are so farre from want, that we often wish you partakers of our plenty.”     -    E.W. (Edward Winslow) Plymouth, in New England, this 11th of December, 1621.

The feast included foods suitable for a head table of honored guests, such as the chief men of the colony and Native leaders Massasoit (“Great Leader” also known as Ousamequin “Yellow Feather”), the sachem (chief) of Pokanoket (Pokanoket is the area at the head of Narragansett Bay). Venison, wild fowl, turkeys and Indian corn were the staples of the meal, which likely also included other food items known to have been aboard the Mayflower or available in Plymouth, such as spices, Dutch cheese, wild grapes, lobster, cod, native melons, pumpkin (pompion) and rabbit.

By the mid-17th century, the custom of autumnal Thanksgivings was established throughout New England. Observance of Thanksgiving Festivals began to spread southward during the American Revolution, as the newly established Congress officially recognized the need to celebrate this holy day.

The first Thanksgiving Proclamation was issued by the revolutionary
Continental Congress on November 1, 1777. Authored by Samuel Adams, it was one sentence of 360 words, which read in part:

 “Forasmuch as it is the indispensable duty of all men to adore the superintending providence of Almighty God; to acknowledge with gratitude their obligation to him for benefits received…together with penitent confession of their sins, whereby they had forfeited every favor; and their humble and earnest supplications that it may please God through the merits of Jesus Christ, mercifully to forgive and blot them out of remembrance…it is therefore recommended…to set apart Thursday the eighteenth day of December next, for solemn thanksgiving and praise, that with one heart and one voice the good people may express the grateful feeling of their hearts and consecrate themselves to the service of their Divine Benefactor…acknowledging with gratitude their obligations to Him for benefits received….To prosper the means of religion, for the promotion and enlargement of that kingdom which consisteth ‘in righteousness, peace and joy in the Holy Ghost’.”

It was one-hundred and eighty years after the first day of thanksgiving in America, that our Founding Fathers officially recognized the day by proclamation of the Constitutional government

===============================
Roosevelt’s inclination to subsume Thanksgiving for commercial interests foretold much of the secular inversion of “thanksgiving” to come. 

In autumns we now exist amid the oppression of crass materialism in advance of that December day when we give thanks for the birth of Christ, oppression vastly different but somehow remarkably similar to that experienced by our Pilgrim forefathers in England. ANd thus too is it so, Christmas has joined the ranks of the material world yet not insofar as the hearts of Rightmindedness. .

 And, at all times we move amid the seduction of cultural decadence in our everyday lives, again remarkably similar to that tempting our Pilgrim forebears and their families in Holland. Nevertheless, for all the decay and dissolution assailing us, we are still at our core, a nation deeply blessed by God.

"To prosper the means of religion, for the promotion and enlargement of that kingdom which consisteth ‘in righteousness, peace and joy in the Holy Ghost’.”

In God We Trusted.

Near or At Record Low Temperatures Possible Tuesday Morning

Clearing  Skies On a Sunday Morning (not from today) Cape Canaveral 

TONIGHT: With clear skies in force and NW winds all day, yet still a cold front is to press SE- ward emanating from the  complexly patterned low pressure system of Thermonuclear baroclinistic 'Sandy' which appears will bring snows to West Virginia  parts of Eastern Kentucky, Possibly the mountains of Western Pennsylvania and New York with time.

The front is scheduled to arrive fully through Central Florida around midnight tonight defined most solely by a drier air mass (lower dew-point temperatures) with lows in the morning Monday around the lower 50Fs to upper 40Fs from near dead Central and north , a bit warmer further south.

MONDAY: With full sunshine and continued dry air infiltration, the forecast calls for flaky skin. Could be a bit like today in the wind department with highs not cracking 70F Dead Central and northward. It is possible that the high temperature will be close to what is considered the usual mark of 67F degrees as a minimum temperature which I've used in the past to distinguish the first full Fall day of the season along the coast of Brevard County. Noticeable temperature drop between 5-7pm as the sun sets.

TUESDAY: Possible record lows. Lows in the upper 40Fs parts of Brevard and mid-40s elsewhere. Winds NW continue. Very very cool to cold as far south as SE Florida as well. Cold is all relative, and in that perspective it will feel relatively cold to those not accustomed to this unusual temperature shift after many months of warm to hot and humid days. Very very dry Tuesday morning. Would not be surprised to see lower 40Fs, with upper 30Fs toward I-10. Highs again only in the mid-upper 60Fs  many locations

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, pretty much the same although it looks like Thursday afternoon we'll warm more in the afternoon most noticeably than on Wednesday.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Modulatory warming so that by Friday morning lower 50Fs and light winds will be a cinch relatively speaking in the morning. Pleasant.

BEYOND: Another cold front and rains could be on tap later of Election Week with another strong burst of much cooler temperatures and perhaps a stormy day prior. Otherwise, entering typical winterish like weather early on now when rains only occur with fronts. This is not to say though, that heading into the second week of November the weather of  these coming days ahead might just be a distant memory with warming temperatures across the boards heading into mid-November. Too soon to say. Daylight savings time begins next Saturday evening...speaking of saving..

Sandy Storms Offshore , Not So Grand-ular Rains Today

Hurricane Center's Forecast track per model consensus and short
range guidance matches nicely so far today. In Blue and Black is where greatest wind and rain impacts at this time appear will occur. Hard to see, Coastal Central.

TODAY: As of 1:45pm it appears Sandy will storm east of the state a good distance offshore. Earlier this morning the storm was 270 ESE of Cape Canaveral when Patrick AFB popped a gust of 53mph in a rain shower. By now, the storm is about as close to the coast as it will get, although some expansion of the wind field could occur per 'some' model guidance and as noted toward the 20-30 percent chance of sustained storm force winds (above) along the coast of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River counties mainly. Rains are not widespread per radar, and little change in the overall gist of things is expected other than for the potential of a slight up tick in winds especially toward or after the 4PM time frame through midnight. It is clear that winds just above the ground are not mixing down to the surface whatsoever other than in the rain showers which are few and far between other than in the renegade 'bands' ..at time coming in mainly as shown.

Combining the forecast wind
and rain-fields yields off and on
tropical storm conditions in rain storms
for brief periods, with a possible increase in the late afternoon through midnight, although not all guidance illustrates a wet picture at all...beyond early evening.
For this post, the RAP short term guidance is shown as it seems to depict better what has already and is occurring. This can be seen in the next illustration which kaleidoscopes vibrantly the expected rainfall totals for this entire 'event' which at worst will be 'entired' as it appears now by mid-morning Saturday if not well before sunrise.

To the left is the rainfall totals showing less than an inch which locally at the man-cave and putty kat shelter (which at this moment is the lap) is already nearly that much.  Whether those totals occur  early, spread out over a period of time, or ever is another matter. It is the totals we are discussing here and not necessarily when or how long of a period upon which the rain will fall that is the crux of the matter.

But what next we haven't asked? 








SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Gradual drying out with NW winds decreasing and mild temperatures with lows in the mid- upper 60Fs and highs in the low 80Fs or upper 70Fs for the most part, Clear or nearly so beyond.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: NW winds most of the time, or at least early in the period as a frontal boundary is drawn south and east down the western flank of the storm's supporting upper level trough, while Sandy , per se..some calling it "Frankenstorm"....could say, "Oh My Godzilla"!

This front will herald in drier yet air, and very very cool morning temperatures in the upper 40Fs inland and north of Central, but 50Fs across the low to upper ranges are entirely possible most everywhere, including the coast. 

The clincher at this point is will the immediate coast get below 50F? If so, Tuesday and Wednesday might be the days. Afternoons though will be quite quite pleasant with light winds, clear skies, and quickly falling temperatures near dusk. Daylight Savings Time will be ending as well next Sunday.

A change in this overall trend is not foreseen until going into Friday and through next weekend. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction although not always realized, and such could be the case this go around as we approach Election Day. Appears this time we will realize it..and there might be yet another re-action heading toward "That Day" in the opposite direction toward a walk on the wet side once again. So far, pseudo to non-tropical in nature.

Sandy Tracks Footprints: The Double Edge Sword Storm

Clustering of forecast tracks early today with the 'cone of silence' error possibilities shown by the outer bounds of possibilities depicted in the thin yellow  bounds of possibilities per Hurricane Center's Standards

TODAY: Sandy made landfall as shown above much earlier today, but is now further north. Tropical Storm Warning now in effect up the Florida East coast (which is saying something considering how far off shore this storm is forecast to track as can also be seen in the above image).

Per GFS, heaviest rainfall is to occur on Brevard County of around an inch. On the other hand, the NAM is indicating over 7"! Big difference. More inclined to lean toward the former though, and if so, most of this will fall on Friday; however, any nudges further east reduces the rainfall potential to nearly zero.

For example, this is the NAM rainfall total forecast for the entire 'event' if there is to be a rain event at all. The GFS shows nothing of the sort though...not even close.

In regard to winds, both models concur surface winds of around sustained 40-50kts with winds just above ground toward 70 kts. It should be noted that at this stage the Hurricane Center commented upon actual observations that the upper level winds do not appear to be mixing down to the surface...on the other hand, per most models it appears they are hinting that Sandy could become somewhat Sub-Tropical in nature, then  expand vastly from its current configuration both vertically and horizontally into a much large 'system' of obscure nature resembling a Tropical System yet on the other hand, not a tropical system.  

In that regard, one could if one wishes Hope for the best and expect the worst..or expect the best and hope for the worst depending on which way one leans. Either way, the storm will do what it's going to do.

ISSUE AT HAND: The east coast of Florida will have zero preparation time once the ball gets rolling and Sandy gets into the Central portion toward north of the Bahamas, because it is at that point that the changes occur. Sandy could become a bit of a 'breathing monster' expanding outward and contracting..off and on, in and out. 

In that regard, conditions 'could' suddenly go downhill without notice Saturday afternoon if the storm expands at that point in time and it is close enough to the east coast of the state to have the most detrimental effects. The NAM is especially aggressive but often tends to go over board on tropical systems despite the continuity it is showing from model run to model run...noting that other models do not seem to agree..as if they talk to each other.  The GFS is also being consistent though and has a better 'track record' so to speak.

Therefore, at a minimum it appears that a minimum worst case scenario is for sustained winds at the beaches especially of 40 to 45 mph with gusts to 50-55mph but with little rain other than on Saturday. A minimum otherwise scenario would be less wind and rain. Things can still change today though as well as into Saturday...so best for all interested to gather your belonging and head to California, but make it across the causeway bridges if on the barrier islands before 10AM on Saturday north of Sebastian Inlet. If not interested, kick back, but might want to pull in outside loose objects, tipping potted plants securation, and get the dog walked early.

Just Dreamin'.  Mainly, we could be seeing some power outages, especially if heavier rain falls...due to either falling limbs on wires or rain gets blown into exposed transformers. Heed the warnings and proceed as desired to suit one's self is about all there is to say. It is guaranteed we can expect turbulent seas and some beach erosion though, especially at this time of year when Autumnal High Tides tend higher than normal as it is, and as was observed yesterday locally on the beach.

What is the Double Edge? Following the passage of the system no matter what the track, the NNE winds becoming North then NNW-NW will drag COLD air down the state. Guidance is trending toward 40s and 50Fs in the morning hours in mid 50s to mid 60Fs in the afternoon going into Monday through Thursday. The thing to consider in this regard is that it has been quite some time since the state has experienced very cool air temperatures, and this could be a shock to the system. 

These types of readings are expected for at least  five days following the storm.. meaning open windows and 'A/C bill relief' as a beneficial off-shoot of the tracks in the eroded sand left behind from the other side of the sword. 

Sandy beaches on Jamaica, Storm Watch in Effect

TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

Official forecast track is wll off the east coast, yet a tropical storm watch is now in Effect from the  North Brevard County line and South as pre-suppositioned in the post yesterday could occur. Note that most tracks are well east of the state 

TODAY: Some more clouds again today as noted could be the case in the previous postage...no cost for packaging and handling. Some showers came in pre-sunrise at Canaveral as observed at the homestead, and more could be on the way later today per latest satellite visible imagery observed loops from this here man-cave. 

Regardless, some showers mainly from Volusia and South toward South Florida remain in the cards today mainly from Brevard to Indian River and St 'Lucile' Counties. This will continue to be the case at any time for the same regions up and down the coast through Thursday into Freitag  as conditions begin to be influenced locally by what remains of Sandy after crossing Cuba.

 Emphasis encouraged on placing uncertainty regarding 'what comes next'. Feast or famine, Beast or mammon, for the Florida east coast? In that regard, we can understand the Hurricane Center is placing emphasis per their own admittion  in their graphics on the clustered tracks of the Hurricane Models further east, yet still has hence put forth a Storm Watch as noted per top of blog post. 

So what Gives?

It would be best to show below what is not shown on those tracks. Especially the GFS model, the NAM model, and the NOGAPS models; Global Forecast System, North American, and Navy NoGaps models show a track more toward the west than the clustered tracks of the Consensus/Ensemble plots which makes perfectly good and reasonable sense. It appears the watch areas are in effect as a 'just in case precautionary measure at this conjuncture', or is it merely conjecture? Too soon to say as the old saying goes. Because as we can see:

NAM shows 70kts coastal Brevard

NAVY shows big Tropical Storm force winds with center just offshore

LATEST GFS as of 8AM shows 90 KTS off shore and 70-80kts on the coast, winds in all cases from the North.

THUS, point being, it's too soon to say which witches 

which is which. Thus, be advised. Whoops, we 

have been. 

It's not too hard to put 2 and 2 together...but at this point it does not seem 

to bother with the hassle until the storm clears or is upon the island of Cuba. In this regard, things still stand; "be prepared to prep"  for strong NNE-N 

winds, beach erosion, and high river waters and impossible bridge crossings, and power outages during the worst case scenario. On the other hand, it might not rain a drop.

Large Sandy (Beaches) - GFTropical Storm/Hurricane Statements :Could Be Necessary for Florida

GFS SURFACE WINDS from the 2AM EDT model run for Thursday at sunrise toward afternoon into Friday. Red COULD end up being Hurricane Watch or Warning zone, and Yellow 'Storm" zone. Too soon to say, way too soon...more below...

TODAY through WEDNESDAY: Not much to say   through these days as conditions with easterly winds and temperatures in the 80Fs by day and 70Fs by night continue. Some showers have moved in well South of Brevard, but not one model anticipated them...they appear to be low topped. Such will the case, increasingly so into Wednesday though, but nothing out of the usual. Best chances of showers going into Wednesday and cloud coverage off and on south of I-4.

BEYOND: Guidance across the boards shows a very very large tropical system named "Sandy" to lift north across Cuba   late Wednesday...after passing over or near Jamaica as a Tropical Storm. Consensus as of this morning indicates Sandy will become a Hurricane north of Cuba over the central Bahamas as the storm lifts north, but the clincher in those regards is just exactly how for west the storm will be at that time.

This is imporant relative to the Florida peninsula early on for the U.S.'s first dibs on the storm in regard to the region mainly from Brevard and South to Miami and far SE Florida. Tropical Storm force winds 'could' occur as Sandy skirts by along a part or all of that zone..or if the storm is further east, none of it. Worst case scenario is showing minimal Hurricane strength from West Palm and South mainly along and east of I-95.

The ECMWF (Euro) model no longer has the storm as close to the coast as previous runs have indicated,  but one other model has it a bit closer than even that shown in the image above; whereas, this is not in general  the case with others.

Whichever one model looks at , regardless, it can be assured this storm will be keeping forecasters busy up until it is assured the storm will clear all of the U.S. east coast which right now seems to be 50/50.  If the storm comes closer to Florida chances become greater that the U.S. Northeast states will be in for a very big storm. On the other hand, if it progresses too far toward the east while lifting north too soon...Sandy could well miss alll of the U.S. entirely.

Either way, big waves and dangerous rip tide conditions are a guarantee beginning late Wednesday through Saturday at least for the Florida east coast.

Rainfall, on the closest path, is most significant from Southern Volusia and south, and most impacting from West Palm Beach and south. On the other hand, if the storm skirts further east, we might not see a drop.

Speculation will abound today most assuredly, but until the storm is north of Cuba for a good 6-12 hours it might be best not to jump the guns, for that is all it is, speculation. In that light, have in mind if one especially lives right on the coast east of I-95 or even US-1 from Brevard and South to consider bringing in yard furniture for a worst case scenario . 

Wind direction is all important as well. Strongest winds in a worst case scenario will be NNE to NE. At this time, there is no official word from the Hurricane Center regarding Florida, thus, these words are obviously only for informational purposes. Use at your Own Risk (if there is any to be had.)

Image of Cape Canaveral Beach at Sunrise

 

Cloudy Today, Chance of Showery Rumbles Mainly South of SR528

Sunny Day Not To Be Found Over Most of the Peninsula of Florida
(Cape Canaveral Florida Sunrise Image)

TODAY: Mid-upper level impulse at the base of a large and to become a slightly negatively tilted trough with its northern most component later today near western Minnesota that extends to the north gulf is sweeping across the state today, with the trough axis to cross late today into tonight. Vast amounts of  high level moisture already at play as can be seen in satellite imagery (below)..but per KSC sounding ..south of I-4 mid level moisture is sorely lacking. Guidance is showing rain in some form or another mainly near and South of the Central Dividing Line along 528 west toward north Tampa Bay, mainly along the east 1/2 of the state after 2pm through sunset. 

Given the  sounding info this morning, not sure lapse rates in the mid-levels will be sufficient to generate that rainfall, but with a little heating and perhaps some dissipation of higher clouds although at this time not yet seen as being evident in the cards, thunder could be a real possibility  mainly south of 528 or SR 50 but more so near and south of Lake Okeechobee.

Otherwise, light wind today outside of any possible storms. Only downplaying what would've had the potenital to be a 'big weather day' if not for the preliminary cloud cover. Strong storms are not entirely out of the question, but will down play that potential today, at least at this early hour.

OTHERWISE: Primary frontal boundary from the larger trough is to pass down the state on Saturday, mainly dry south of I-10 as it does so (at least at this point), but accompanied by cloud cover to varying degrees.  Before that time, there is a bit of a 'dry slot' at this point to move in behind this impulse passing over head today, so Friday and even Thursday could be mainly dry except toward South Florida and the Panhandle; no hard set rules on that one yet though.

Temperatures to cool mainly along and north of I-4 on the east coast and toward South Tampa Bay on the west coast. Folks south of the Cape in All areas will hardly know a front went through, just like the one the other day resulted outcome that manifested. Front? What Front?....exactly.

No true 67F and below readings for the immediate East Coast south of I-4 (East of US1) is foreseen through Halloween.

Showers, Thunder through Early-Mid Evening (Central) Possible Today/Tonight

Frontal Boundary late today to be located as shown in the following image, but currently located diagonally across the Panhandle where morning lows were in the 50Fs behind it (that cool air will never reach Central Florida). Difficulties in forecast today due to cloud coverage over many areas that is to persist

TODAY: Short post today. Cluster of Storms is progressing toward the ENE (shown above), this coupled with surface winds becoming more southerly after noontime, and increasing SW midlevel steering across mainly Central and North Florida with instability and cool air aloft despite the cloud coverage could instigate showers and thunder (South Florida is already experiencing quite a bit)...almost anytime, esp. after early afternoon.

The frontal boundary across North Florida could make it toward Dead Central around midnight, and slight low level convergence along that boundary could shift increasing rain chances toward the SE from NW Florida later today, but timing is a tricky factor considering the ongoing scenario currently in place.

There was some large rainfall totals over 4" yesterday in Okeechobee County, so localized flash 'flooding' is possible there, although the main core of rain is not 'expected' to reach that zone. Guidance 'seems' to be a somewhat of   agreement that it will be the north 1/2 of the state that will receive the main flux of rainfall, but no area can be counted out once localized boundaries come into play and considering it is already raining over portions of South Florida early on today.

Image for mid evening shows front's location and a weak low pressure circulation over the Bahamas. High pressure building eastward indicated by zig zag blue line will press eastward toward Florida resulting in a wind shift to the north by Tuesday and drying out mainly north of the 528 Causeway, but yet more drying to commence Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday through Friday or early Saturday. 

BEYOND TODAY: Shower chances early on along the east coast of Central tomorrow morning but this activity will press off toward SW Florida during the day.  After that time, Wednesday through Friday look mostly dry, although another boundary will skirt by off shore with little to no impact  Morning lows along the coast in the mid-upper 70Fs south of the Cape and afternoon highs in the 80Fs and lows 90Fs along the SW side of the state.

Chance (?) of Very Strong Storms Today, Frequent Lightning

Mesoscale Analysis Graphic From the Storm Prediction Center website based on RAP Guidance shows upper level divergence and stronger winds aloft (which coincides with morning actual soundings from KSC/TPA, JAX) over the Gulf. Issue today could be cloud cover in some areas which might burn off quickly in the next few hours, and a convective temperature at KSC way up at a hard to attain 92F . Especially if storms form over far west Florida and spread high clouds eastward.

TODAY: There is a chance of severe storms today, although no formal outlets are relegating this potential officially, so in regards to a mere blog post that comment should be taken with a grain of salt. 

Temperatures aloft are cooler than the past two days and jet stream level winds down to the upper most portions of the steering level are twice as strong than the past two days as well, which leaves for good 'evacuation ' out of the top of the storms for breathing room. BUT, underneath those winds lingers substantial cloud cover mainly north of the Beach Line zone ('Dead Central Dividing Line' often referred to only in these posts). Instability is in the same range as two days ago nearly so, with CAPE already up to a 4000 in a small area near Gainesville per KSCs Local Data Integration System plots, which completely conflicts with the NAM guidance showing less than 500 J*2/kg*2, so have discarded that guidance entirely.

Activity could form very close to the east coast by early afternoon, and early outflow from that activity might very well stabilize locations close to those showers and/or earlier day storms... particularly south of Brevard toward Lake Okeechobee (Vero south to West Palm Beach ). Most models are placing late day rains along the WEST coast though, but propagation changes everything, which appears would be from the northwest, which is what the below image is at least taking into consideration.

Winds below about 9000 ft are very light, so sea breezes should not have a problem developing. Much of how those develop and how strong they will be is largely contingent upon how well inland temperatures can warm and where that will be. Suspect that perhaps all of dead Central might end up being the 'zone' to watch, but graphics in this post do not really capture this essence other than shown above as a starting guessameter. 

The downfall per KSC for strong storms, or the state having a hard time getting started, is that the KSC sounding shows a convective temperature of 92F. This is possible inland once clouds clear (I suppose), or that temperature might have been a morning glitch which could easily no longer exist. So to play it safe will call the wild card bluff today to play it safe in the 'heads up' department. 

Will add that the High Resolution model is showing only storms over Brevard County today, as of a run three hours old.

The other thing to watch will be that if a good cluster-age of storms can amass toward Ocala (in general) outflows could propagate toward the South and east toward the Palm Beach County area later today as far north as the Cape area. This might all be made up for though in terms of rainfall totals rather than strong to severe storms, but it does look like at this point there is no reason not to discount the potential at least for gusts toward 65 mph and small hail after the first couple storms get going and their subsequent outflows interact.  

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Not surprisingly, the GFS is holding off a bit in the longer ranger into early next week on frontal passage, awaiting instead for it to occur once a secondary front only now coming together well to the north to press on east and south behind the eroding first boundary moving toward the Appalachian Chain and into the Deep South. 

Thus, rain chances now go into at least Tuesday..and might be even longer. Sunday looks a bit like today in regard to parameters as does Monday. Low pressure over the Caribbean is conflicting with frontal passage, acting a bit as a block..with a continued moist low but light easterly flow 'hencefromforthethishly'. Therefore, showers are also possible overnight and early morning mainly near the east coast, but isolated into Tuesday.

Chance of a Strong Storm and 'Big' Lightning Today

This image by no means meant to cover the details, as heavier activity could occur north of Lake Okeechobee (not shown) and pretty much anywhere west of I-95 today except toward Miami (?)

TODAY: Overall today conditions are not much different than yesterday other than that low level instability is not as strong. Winds aloft are light to totally negligent to steering so again it is possible for the atmosphere by early evening to take on a life of its own as was the case yesterday. One location in Lake County received over 6 inches of rain.  Slow storm motion mainly due to propagation and merges could back-draft toward the east coast toward or after dark as the sea breeze wanes especially. In that regard, any coastal location could get a shower or storm after 8pm (potentially) as an odd ball out.

There is a good amount of downdraft CAPE once again, making for questionable coverage (like yesterday). That was the case yesterday as well  and what ended up occurring was good coverage with much lightning activity. A child was struck on a playing field along the west coast. No severe reports (hail/wind) came in however, perhaps lightning made up for the difference.

SAT/SUN: No changes in the mid-term and extended. Rain chances continue in random but wide spread fashion, decreasing on Sunday for the north mainly. High pressure now centered in the mid-levels over Central Florida will weaken as a front approaches, but the low levels will not be so willing to change. 

The next front is shown yet still to never really clear the state as it lifts off to the Northeast while pulling off to the east after crossing most of Georgia. 

Regardless, high pressure behind that boundary will assert a much greater influence over the state by Monday approaching from the West and northwest. As a result, ENE-NE winds will become more easterly into next week late week, with the only effect of said High Pressure being subsidence (sinking of air) and drying out of the atmosphere. This could mean cooler mornings away from the East Coast, but those folks located close to and east of A1A from the Cape and South will unlikely see overnight lows dropping much below 77F degrees with ocean temperatures running around 80-81F degrees and onshore but light winds continuing over night, blowing off the water of those temperatures.  The above image is a GFS surface temperature forecast for Monday Morning where the blues are at , near, or below freezing.