Rainshowers / Thunderstorms Appear Likely Today : Quite Pleasant on Friday

Showers and Thunderstorms Already Over North Florida
with others Beginning To Form
in Very Spotty Fashion  Elsewhere Should Increase into Early Afternoon 

TODAY: No sig changes from previous two posts as atmospheric workable moisture is up toward 2.00" (precipitable water). As of this hour (11AM) deep moisture convergence is building more toward the west and southern portions of the state with the workable moisture for showers and storms at a sufficient 90% loading capacity. There could be some stronger wind gusts in initial activity but suspect that after any initial raihshowers occur some stabilitzation might put the lid on any chance of stronger storms since low level instability is running only at modest levels at is, and any rainfall will further stabilize the atmosphere in those areas that it rains early on...with early rains onset the atmosphere instability will have little time to build up during the heat of the day already frustrated by varying degrees of cloud coverage.

Storms today should press in from the general SW direction and 'could' pile up mostly in the area in blue (above) where instability is currently being maximized , and where the cloud cover is the least intrusive (prohibitive for better storm activity).

The associated cold front is still well west of Central and South Florida, and is unlikely to clear those areas until well after midnight.  With loss of daytime heating activity should dwindle to spotty rain showers and light post storm drippings to continue here and there toward 10pm if not as late as 2AM. There is a slight chance that somewhere along East Central could have additive moderate rainfall amounts though on top of early day activity is making for some pockets of 2-3 " totals once all is said and done.

FRIDAY: Significant drying out to commence around noontime Central working south during the day with cooler temperatures  in the mid-upper 70Fs for afternoon highs, NNW winds 12-20mph, mainly during the midafternoon but dying down by evening.

Continued pleasant through the weekend with cooler mornings mainly inland toward the west coast as NE winds will quickly modify the temperatures  along the east coast for the overnight cooling time frame. 

A secondary boundary to pass by on Monday into Tuesday should increase cloud coverage in varying degrees, resulting in maybe an isolated sprinkle but so far that's about it for quite some time to come after today in regard to rainfall or active weather.

Chance of Heavy Thunderstorms Thursday

Moisture Behind Tropical Wave now having moved into the Central Gulf could
result in heavier rainfalls on Thursday  

TODAY: Really not much new from the previous post. Moisture from a dampened out tropical/easterly wave is flowing across FLorida into the Central Gulf, though rainshowers could occur anytime today , the best chance later today is toward North and West Florida (see image below)...

THURSDAY: Latest GFS indicates a pre-frontal trough to set up toward the West Side to West Central Side of the state toward early afternoon, though along the east coast almost side-shore winds and another seemingly coastal trough to set up. Between these two, particularly of interest at this time is the one along the east coast, convergence could set up through a good portion of the lower levels of the atmosphere and with a  slightly unstable air mass in place and divergence aloft coupled with all the moisture ahead of the frontal boundary being drawn north ahead of it (the GFS shows up to 2.2" (or more?) precipitable water values as a result of convergence), wouldn't be totally surprised to see rainfall totals somewhere exceeding 3" , but just exactly where, hard to say. Chance of thunderstorms as well, with possibly some stronger winds, but so far it appears the greatest hazard would be blinding rainfall (if said rainfall can manage to occur).

BEYOND: Front to clear Central by near Sunrise toward noon on Friday. It will be quite dry on Friday afternoon and into Saturday with cooler temperatures making for a nice start to the weekend with gradual warming into Sunday. No big rain making situations appear to be setting up for quite a while as a result of a slow moving high pressure area to pass over Florida from the SW Gulf in the days following the cold front's passage.  That high pressure will make for a long period of dry and pleasant weather, especially on Friday and Saturday.

Chance of Heavy Rainshowers/Storms on Thursday (?)

Thinning High clouds should make for a partly to mostly sunny day with a chance
of thunderstorms or showers as noted in locations above later to early evening 

MONDAY/TUESDAY: GFS continues to show and easterly 'tropical wave' ; per discussions from the NWS Offices there is some question concerning how it will be handled in coming days; the GFS shows it dampening out yet making it to Florida as increased atmospheric moisture before the next front arrives. It was questioned whether the front would beat out the moisture in the previous post, but it was thought the moisture 'wave' would win the race. Since that post the GFS a few times showed the moisture might not even make it here at all, but that has flipped back around to the original thinking. What this means is that no effect Monday and Tuesday, with conditions somewhat similar to what we've had the past few days as it is, other than a better chance of some thunder North Parts of the state today. 

Image of atmospheric 'precipitable water' from the GFS Model
(Global Forecast System) for Monday sunrise.
Note the lower right corner  showing the leading edge of deeper moisture.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of a shower or two from the Cape and South sunrise on through the remainder of the day, and maybe some thunder interior to west side of state. 

Here's where changes will be watched for. The latest GFS damps the wave out to cross South Florida on Wednesday  then to get caught up in the next front (see above image)...  converges into the front for Thursday afternoon as it approaches. Could be a chance of some heavy type thunderstorm activity on this day as a result of that occurs, but much will change before that time in regard to the models.  In any case, Thursday appears to be the day with the best rain chance in quite some time to come, from then and beyond as well.

BEYOND THURSDAY: Chances of showers/thunder South Central/South Florida as front goes through with big drying trend to follow...notable by Saturday morning and through the weekend.

Tropical Wave Next Week to Affect Florida?

GFS Depiction of "Precipitable Water" throughout the "Atmospheric Weather Producing Column" has been showing something similar to the above depiction for two straight days, coupled with what looks 'like' a bona fide easterly wave

TODAY - FRIDAY: Little change from the past days with a slight increase in moisture/humidity going into Friday specifically. Otherwise, winds in the afternoon becoming more Southeast with time and a little stronger than past days as well beginning Thursady.

SATURDAY: A slight surge in moisture from the ESE to SE is so far shown to work up the East Coast and more of the state beginning after midnight Friday night to be fully in place across at least the South half of the state by early afternoon, Saturday. Chance of showers mostly with this activity though some thunder might not be able to be ruled out. So far, this looks like a 'one-day' affair as the moisture is drawn further north and west, out of the picture, though some showers could continue over the weekend toward the west 1/2 of the state.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: So far, looks more like back to status quo of little rain chance but all eyes are now on watching this 'easterly wave' type looking 'thing' coming from the tropics region . The GFS has shown this for 6 straight runs now, and shows no sign of that ending so far. Just exactly what will happen with whatever it is finally decided to be by "Them" is unknown...but guidance continues to be a little bouncy concerning whether the moisture will make it to Florida before a cold front from the Plains sweeps in and pulls it all out to the north. It'll be a race with time is what it appears to be, but so far the GFS says the 'wave' wins out. 


The latest GFS run from 2AM EDT (06Z) goes so far as showing a resultant weak surface low forming over South Central Florida  the following day making for a big rain shower/ thunderstorm day on Wednesday beginning in the mid-late morning through late afternoon.  

But, beyond Wednesday, the front having gone through, it's back to dry weather and little more to speak of.

Some Thunderstorms Today/Tonight, Some Large Rainfall Possible

"There's Got to be a Morning After"

"MAY DAY!  MAY DAY! "

"ARCUS  DEFINES THE GUST FRONT OF STORM:  MAY 1, 2014"

TODAY: Not much change from  past 'blog posts' regarding today and tomorrow. Frontal boundary is located close to if not just south of I-4 and little change in location is expected today. Some flood watch or two for a county has been hoisted over along the west coast as a result of persistent moderate to heavy rainfall there, but not so sure that the focus won't shift to the east coast later today through Saturday.

Other than cloud cover resulting in less instability as was expected to occur, winds aloft will be increasing as will upper level divergence going into later today through Saturday as the mid-upper level troughs lower in latitude and shift east from their present locations. The mid-upper level trough supporting this frontal boundary is still located way back across East Central Texas extending Northeastward but will nudge in during the next 24 hours increasing speed shear aloft.

Though impossible to forecast, it might be worth watching for a " later in the day 'outflow' " extending southward from the current area of rainfall  resulting in a new focus area south of the current area of rain. How far south that outflow might go though, if it happens at all, is up in the air. 

Therefore, in speculation, we might see some unexpected rainfall totals later today or tonight into Saturday somewhere along the east coast.

BEYOND SATURDAY: Not expecting mentionable weather for a number of days with a return to near normal early May weather, minus any rain chances.

 

LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS LINK SHOWS "FRONTO-GENESIS
AT THE SURFACE WITHIN THE RED CIRCLES

Chance of an Isolated Stronger Storm Today, Rain Chance Thru Saturday

"Banana River Storm along the Eastern Shores - Cape Canaveral, Florida"

TODAY: Some minor differences from the past few days with,  as always, a few hiccups between model guidance both between models and individual runs within any given model (in regard to the short term).

Rather than spending too much time with nit-picking details that likely will never materialize anyway, the only thing that stands out different today from the past two days is that both the NAM (which I rarely rely on any more) and also the short term RAP model runs are showing stronger upward vertical velocities along the east coast from Brevard south to St. Lucie Counties with a bullseye over Central to Southern Brevard county, at least as of 11AM. 

The proverbial " fly in the ointment " is that this occurs too early in the day, and ends up amounting to nothing when otherwise it could indicate the better chance for a  "near severe" (storm) or two. But, given those are rather recent depictions, the blog post includes to highlight that region as 'possible strong storms' for that reason and that reason only. There was a recorded gust of 72 m.p.h. yesterday by the Haulover canal on the north side of  no-man's land Kennedy Space Center just as a side note.. otherwise, gusts were in the 40 mph range with most storms which really isn't all that unusual for a thunderstorm.  

Also in looking outside, it's clear we are once again contending with a con- factor of high thin clouds over north and central Florida from time to time; but for parts of Central it might prove to be irrelevant, since low levels winds will advect heat and instability from the more cloud free skies over Southern Florida, as they blow from the SW-SSW into Central Florida underneath the thin , high canopy. 

In general , a sea breeze will again form but be more 'side-shore' and closer to the coast than the past two days (I suspect),  which would mean the stronger activity might occur further east today .  

COULD BE WORSE. Images below were posted to TWITTER and FACEBOOK showing the storm that generated the EF-4 Rated Tornado the other day in Mississippi. 

Could be some lingering activity beyond 9pm along the east coast from Brevard  and/or  Indian River Counties tonight in the form of light rain as was the case the past 2 evenings. 

"Suspect Area -51" in purple.
Otherwise some storms with the main hazard being lightning 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Frontal boundary across North Florida today will be located tomorrow across North Central to Central Florida and remain in the area around I-4 tomorrow and perhaps further south on Saturday. Increasing cloudiness and showery activity is possible with some heavy rainfall possible on Saturday  I-4 toward the Beach Line Zone. 

So far, Saturday seems to be the least decent day due to either increased rain chances and/or cloud cover, but quickly improving conditions will manifest on Sunday as the front clears to the south and the atmosphere dries out significantly. Our  few days recently of 75F dew points appears to be coming to an end shortly.

After Saturday, rain chances are zero for quite a few number of days ahead.

Another Active Day Possible - Rain Chances through Saturday

TRICKY Forecast today with guidance varying from showing
a worst case scenario to close to a "No Case" Scenario.
This depiction is closer to the 'worst case' depiction 

TODAY: It was tempting to post the same image as yesterday for today's scenario as it is,  since mid morning dynamics are beginning to mimic yesterday's set up, at least on paper as of the time of this writing. 

Instability is not shown to be quite as strong on the Mesoscale analysis page today, but the LDIS (Local Data Integration System) which runs locally is showing more instability than yesterday...so which is it? Sounding showed a lot of dry air aloft and MESO shows pretty strong downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) as a result meaning it could be tough to get any serious storms going, but once one can go, the trend should be set for the rest to follow suite for the potential of small hail and/or strong wind gusts. 

The question is, "Can they even get going?". This post  falls in line with Official Outlets for the most part  though location for strongest activity likely is leaning too far to the east as was the case in the posted image yesterday. 


Being on the coast is a bit misleading as a steady river / sea breeze is blowing from the SSE, yet inland locations show something quite a bit different with light south winds . Guidance is showing winds just above the deck from the SW at around 15 KTS which would keep activity pegged more toward the east, but the KSC sounding did not show this to be the case at all, thus, the strongest activity might be located a bit further inland than what is shown in this image. The higher chance of some stronger activity is due to a number of factors combined with that upper level divergence 'might' increase across the North half of the state later today. The JAX area for better chances of severe per the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) was omitted from this post.

BEYOND: As noted previously, every day will be a case by case basis with more thunder possible through Friday,  but probably lowering in strength as a result of more cloud coverage as the frontal boundary eases toward Central Florida and goes quasi-stationary going toward Friday and/or Saturday. 

The front should clear all but the FLorida Keys on Sunday afternoon or so and remain to the south. No big rain chances are then foreseen for nearly a week after this coming weekend,  for the most part.

Isolated Strong Storms Are "Possible" Today after 5PM - 8PM

 

TODAY: Latest morning guidance shows moderate to strong instability continues to reside off the Florida East coast to be advected inland with the east coast sea breeze. Steering above the level of the sea breeze is from the SW-SSW near 10-12 knots toward the east coast north of Sebastian Inlet. If the depth of the sea breeze extends up toward 2000 ft or so, winds at that level (so far) are also from the SW-SSW and therefore hard to be too sure of just exactly how far inland it will work this afternoon,  but suspect it might not make it as far as the Orlando METRO area or if so, perhaps MCO area at best. 

Otherwise, temperatures aloft are cold for this time of year per the KSC morning sounding which is a sign of a strong storm signal given other factors are present as well, but guidance indicates some warming will occur as the day progresses. Suspect some showers could go up along the sea breeze as there is more moisture today than yesterday, and one did manage to go up down in Indian River County west of Vero Beach proper along the sea breeze with less moisture present.

There are some other meteorological parameters that are derived from equations that would support strong activity today, but very isolated, such as some pockets of dry air. 

The additive bonus that goes without saying,  but that which models cannot account for at least not very accurately,  is the sea breeze convergence factor coupled with any outflows from even only rainshowers that set up boundaries prior to late day time frame when heating has been maximized and various lake and sea breezes begin to interact in random fashion. 

Those combined with the aforementioned  enhanced low level helicities east of I-95 toward Central Florida and toward the interiors up to the storm base level could give rise to some decent true to life thunderstorm activity given the current situation, unless things change radically between now and then. The down play toward North Central is a thin veil of high level cirrus clouds that are a result of thunderstorms over the panhandle region this morning.

BEYOND: More storms are possible through Friday, but each day will be on the  "Play it as it Comes" . Other days before then could see some strong storms as well; e.g. The NAM model from overnight showed more so tomorrow.  The front and storm system related to the severe weather in parts of the Deep South is expected to make headway through Florida late Saturday.

Below is only a make up of an area the blogger is watching for today for potentially damaging storms most concentrated wise; official outlets have the details though.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    

Chance of Early to Mid Evening Showers and Perhaps Thunder - Increasing Chance on Thursday

Chance of early to mid evening showers and maybe some thunder. Click on images to enlarge.

Spring Break - Cocoa Beach "Warm Streak"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Warmest String of 2014 Days Ahead

TODAY THROUGH WEEKEND: Warmer and then yet warmer still with cool mornings and light winds.

A remnant cold frontal boundary is expected to reach North Central to Central Florida late Wednesday. The recent trend has been to reduce the impact this boundary will have on Florida, but whether that trend will continue or not is about the only question mark. The only impact it previously had was to make Thursday a bit cooler but that, in the latest guidance, was going by the wayside. Either way, any change in the latest is rather insignificant.

It is still shown that there 'could' be in increase in cloud cover and perhaps some showers near the East Coast of Central Florida on Thursday, and more specifically parts of the interior of North and North Central Florida due to the remnant boundary laying out with a north/south orientation resulting in some sea breeze convergence showers in that area, but other wise other than perhaps a shower or thunderstorm over South Florida heading toward Saturday or Sunday, winds are expected to remain light with a string of mid to perhaps upper 80Fs to near 90F (interior regions anywhere in Florida by the weekend) as noted in the post last Thursday, little is foreseen at this point until mid-week next week in regard to discernible weather changes in any other regard. At least as it stands now. Whether active weather in that time frame will actually manifest is too far out in time to hold any degree of certainty.  

Chance of Strong/Severe Storms Late Today into mid-late Evening

Latest Enhanced Water Vapor Image Shows the Upper Level Low
Lagging well to the west of low level features. Instability over the Loop Current
likely responsible for on going activity there since last night (continues) combined with favorable for strong activity veering winds with height

NOW (8AM): A thin line of showers is working up the east coast affecting Southern Brevard County soon to reach Central and north Brevard. This line is thought by some to be a 'warm front' but closer analysis brings cause to wonder if it is not associated more with the leading edge of deepest mid level moisture working north. I'm  hearing thunder now as I type.

Otherwise, gusting on shore winds along the east coast will veer toward the south by mid-afternoon or so. Perhaps some sprinkles off and on, but cloud cover will be the general rule but for far South Florida as anvil blow off from activity (with frequent lightning) over the Eastern Gulf continues, and has been in progress since mid evening last night with little eastward motion if any.

LATE TODAY: A warm front will form across Central Florida, but how far north it progresses could be debated, at least in regard to the surface front. This might be an issue as rain cooled air from direct rainfall or evaporative cooling over North Florida might give it a hard time progressing much further north than I-4 (if even that). Aloft, the warm front will proceed much further north as a wind shift line and some mid level warmer making for poor lapse rates across the far North but where the best wind fields will exist. 

With poor low level lapse rates, suspect a severe threat in that area is only minimal. The better 'chance' for said 'strong to severe' at time appears will be from near I-4 south to the Indian River County and more - so along the East Coast where winds will remain more backed (and enhanced) due to lack of frictional effects of the land mass. So far, best timing would be from after 6pm through around 11pm or so. Much,  as noted yesterday,  will depend on the timing issues.

OTHERWISE: Surface low to remain near the Florida Big Bend and south of or near Alligator Point much of the day and into tonight. In time, the upper level winds will move in, but by that time the lower to mid level winds profiles will no longer be present having lifted off to the North and North east, and suspect at that point any strong storm threat will be out of the picture (per the latest GFS ). Overall, the biggest threat appears would be strong wind gusts from heavier storms (if any) and perhaps a brief spin up tornado, though would still bear watching the local networks or favored form of media (Weather Radio). Suspect some local TV Channels will switch to "live mode' as or if conditions warrant.

WEEKEND: Much depends on how fast the low pressure areas move out. Suspect the GFS is more correct, and if so, lingering moisture on Sunday morning with broken cloud cover is possible ..but if it clears out even more, all the better with a low in the mid-upper 50Fs , closer to 60F. Continued clearing though on that day and seasonable temperatures once we get the sun in unless the low moves out slower (as implied by the NAM). No rains are foreseen from that time on.

Chance of Strong/Severe Storms "Friday": Not Necessarily "Good"

 ""When it is evening, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red. And in the morning, 'There will be a storm today, for the sky is red and threatening.' Do you know how to discern the appearance of the sky, but cannot discern the signs of the times?"

TODAY: A few thunderstorms are occurring over portions of South Florida at time and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has lowered the Slight Risk of Severe in that region of yesterday down to a 'See Text" (as suspected might end up being the case), but that might be generous but for later today toward West South Central. Otherwise, a bit breezy along the east coast (especially) with gusts over 30 mph eastern portions as far north as JAX south toward Brevard.  This could be a sign of stronger high pressure than thought, which is throwing the future-casts out of sync.  After some activity over The South, expect the evening to be in and out clouds with slowly fading winds as a warm front develops and lifts north across Central early to mid day tomorrow. Perhaps some isolated showers.

FRIDAY: There is some fairly significant differences in model guidance, both between the various models and consecutive runs within models. Having no access to the ECMWF, but in reading the discussions from those that do, see little benefit at this time at least of knowing one from the other as disparities continue right up through the morning GFS and NAM Runs. The NAM is considerably slower and further south with a surface low, the GFS is a bit further north and just a bit faster.  Between Three Models its like 'this one is just a little to hot, this one a little to cold, and this one..is it correct?" Both are showing a surface low though in the eastern gulf, but placement is spuriously inconsistent at best in regard to where it will be located and when. This holds much bearing on the end result over Florida as upper level features never fully integrate with those at the surface in a manner that would produce 'active weather' but perhaps along I-4 toward I-10 (as of this time), less so toward Dead Central and even less so more from near Lake Okeechobee and south. 

Therefore, at best, this blog post (which is 'most unofficial') is only capturing Generalities and rounding off what appears to be a best-guess.

GFS (Global Forecast System Model) Depiction for the surface features
per noted time

With the above scenario, a warm front will be located 'somewhere' across Central Florida late tomorrow afternoon lifting north toward dark. Rain should be ongoing already at this time toward I 10 and perhaps toward I-4 with some other showers further south possible,  potentially becoming 'thunder' near the warm front. It is expected to lift at least toward I-10 over night (or maybe sooner). Again, timing is everything and since models do not agree, we'll have to wait it out for more runs to be released to get a better grasp on the situation much like an unfolding, 'real to life' news drama.

"GENERAL OVERVIEW FROM WHATEVER MIGHT COME ABOUT BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY TOWARD SUNRISE"

LATE FRIDAY/OVERNIGHT: This seems to be the big question mark in the sky right now. Without going into details, since at this point it would be meaningless in the big picture, would suffice it to say: 'remain a bit engaged with the local news outlet (s) of preference beginning late Friday morning'. 

SATURDAY: Surface and mid level low will be slow to move out. That much at least is agreed upon. So far, appears could be a chance of rain ending by mid morning if not sooner toward the east coast, to as late as Saturday afternoon before sunset.

EASTER ISSUES:  Guidance again differs on temperatures Sunday morning at Sunrise. ..from mid 50Fs to lower 60Fs, as well as cloud coverage. The low being slow to move out will have wrap around moisture associated with it. Point being, will we even see the Sun Rise this Day?  We might need some Saving Grace in that regard,  but at least so far it doesn't look like the eggs will have to remain in hiding due to rainfall and running dye unless they now make it waterproof. 

BEYOND: Again, the beyond looks fairly benign for nearly a week at least. Hints at some very warm days ahead are being indicated though, which would be normal for the most part. Winter might have already seen it's last gasp the other morning, and if not, maybe on Sunday morning. It definitely appears to be losing breath in any case.