Very Warm At The Beaches This Weekend, Late Storms Possible

Active Storm Near Viera as Viewed from Cape Canaveral Looking SSW

TODAY: Unlike what the GFS had proposed and as noted in the post yesterday, the temperatures aloft have not cooled as expected. Winds aloft are aloof, even lighter than yesterday. Moisture is still available but even so appears to be a bit less. There was a slight cap at the low levels today at KSC sounding time and the Convective Temperature was also warmer. What this all means for most of East Central Florida (esp. the east half or third of the central zone) is late activity today with little to go up along the onset of the east coast sea breeze during it's westward trounce. Regardless, given that the past two days there has been a strong to severe storm or two, will go with persistence of memory and give it another shot in the purple zone as a first hand guess for that possibility once again based on latest satellite imagery animations.

 Model guidance was of little use today in the' where regard' as they all were in disagreement with each other for the most part, so tossed out the precip fields altogether for today. For example, activity has already begun near the Big Bend to parts of Western North Central or nearly so west of Ocala (see below), and some models showed no activity there at all until nearly dark. Whoops.

TOMORROW: Tomorrow will be a variation of today from what it looks like now but with a slightly better learning toward the east in the storm motion regards. Maybe just enough to make storms actually crawl ahead. As noted yesterday a mid level trough is working its way across the Ohio and upper Mississippi River Valley today and tomorrow and eventually toward the eastern Mid Atlantic Coast into Sunday and Monday. But it's a slow mover but the changes over Florida will be noted nonetheless in the storm steering regard.

Warm to relatively hot tomorrow and Sunday and perhaps Monday at the beaches or east of US1 up and down the east coast north of Ft. Pierce mainly with delayed sea breeze occurring and nearly cloud free skies. Higher heat indices implied as a result. As the trough proceeds toward the Mid-Atlantic storm steering will noticeably increase on Sunday into Monday from west to east giving the beach side though higher numbers on the Old Mercury, at least some chance of late day relief in the form of clouds, rains, or storm beyond a delayed sea breeze which might not occur north of the Cape at all come Monday and/or Tuesday.

Also noting, that 'come Monday" and beyond, dry slots continue to be shown by the GFS meaning the forecast might go down to more of the 'Isolated Storms' subtitle, though inevitably, that 'Isolated Number" might occur in a more concentrated area (namely toward the East Coast) so in that regard, it's going to perhaps be a moot point especially east of I95 residents from JAX south to Ft Pierce.  That is to say, if an Orlando station says Isolated, that might only mean for the inland areas, and not the beaches.

Increased Storm Coverage Through Sunday, Stronger Storms Perhaps Friday/Saturday

Billowing Updrafts Displayed by this Cloud Formation Producing Rain Over Cocoa Beach on Tuesday  as Viewed Eastward From West Cocoa  

TODAY: Most model guidance is conveying that storm and/or rainshower coverage will be on the increase today with sea breezes being a bit more active (which wouldn't be hard since the past two days there has been very very little activity on them), but the peak performance time will occur as they approach each other after 3pm and begin to meet coincident with outflow boundaries generated by earlier showers/storms which form along the larger Lake Breeze boundaries. Multiple outflow collisions accompanied with post peak heating as it appears now will set off a chain reaction apparently per guidance of greater coverage today than has been the case in the past few days. Cloud cover abundant by sunset over many areas as a result.

TOMORROW: It was noted yesterday that some cold air aloft might enter into the picture originating from around Hispaniola and across Western Cuba as it rounds the Western Fringes of the  Atlantic Ridge axis (more commonly referred to as "The Bermuda High") in clockwise fashion. The GFS is still implying that will be the case coming into Friday afternoon. The cold air might have originated from a former TUTT (Tropical Upper (level) Tropical Trough). In any case and if so, colder air aloft in the 500mb (20,000 ft) level could provide the impetus for steeper mid-level lapse rates which have been fairly pitiful but typical the past several days . Outside of a storm near Orlando yesterday which was 'severe warned' (and verified by hail sized up to 1.00"), it's been fairly typical for August conditions.

BEYOND: The cold air aloft might also be present on Saturday as will abundant moisture. A mid level trough moving across the Central and Northern Plains today  and eventually the Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic area   through tomorrow will suppress the Atlantic Ridge Axis further south going into Sunday through Tuesday (and longer perhaps) putting Florida in the same general prevalent steering for storms pattern that has been in place most of the season as evidenced by the higher than normal rainfall totals in many areas along the east side of the state into Central Portions. There does appear that some dry slots will be imbedded though in this particular flow pattern, so rain chances/coverage will likely go down for certain areas but exactly where at this point in time is too early to determine.

Same Old Song, Different Lyrics

See Colored Text for Image Details For Today 

TODAY: Not much sense in strumming the same old tired song, the lyrics have barely even changed , though some punctuation marks have been added. The main differences  for today that can be determined from forecasts,  the morning KSC sounding (if that data  holds to be true into the afternoon), and Local Data Integration..is that "

A: Steering at the lower levels has weakened significantly enough to allow the east coast sea breeze to form and work its way to at least I-95 (as opposed to yesterday when that did not occur); and

B: Temperatures aloft at 500mb might have dropped perhaps 1/2 a degree but the temperatures at 700mb have dropped about 2 degrees. Again, if that was only localized or representative of a large area is unknown, and if that holds true for the afternoon hours is also unknown. Overall, though it shouldn't make much difference unless it holds, then some stronger but brief storms could occur inland (west of I-95 over Central Florida into Lake County / Orange/Osceola e.g.) 

C. The boundaries that were drawn out on yesterday's blog post have faded into oblivion as Old Bertha and her child low pressure area move further and further away. The straggling boundaries are but a  lingering moisture laden memory.

Outside of the above, it all looks typical for August type thunderstorms. A different Breed of those in June and early July as the air mass throughout the entire boundary layer typically warms making for less severe like activity, the same ingredients which foster more  tropical like conditions fostering tropical storm results up through the end of October. We'll be reaching the peak of hurricane season in a few weeks and nary a storm to be seen or forecast on the  digital horizon. YET.

The day could again end in typical mostly cloudy to cloudy fashion due to storm debris aloft with some sprinkles abouts.

TOMORROW-FRIDAY: Not going to venture into this territory as both days looks like another variation of today...though the GFS implies a pocket of colder air from Eastern Cuba might work it's way around the western edge of the Atlantic Ridge intrusion and across South to South Central Florida. If so, going toward Friday or Saturday there might be some stronger storms 'down South" but wouldn't buy into that at all at this point.  

WEEKEND-TUESDAY: Watching for an up tick in storms moving toward the far east side  with greater certainty and more of a punch but overall, nothing that can be foresee without   "the greater details of the daily basis" cast.

Storms Mainly Near and South of I-4 Today, Moving East at 15 MPH

TODAY: Brief post due to time constraints. The image is not meant to encapsulate all potentials for storms today . Best chance for gusty storm winds are from I-4 and north, so any storms that might get going near that area could become stronger than par for August though other factors such as suppression might preclude storms to be able to go in that area other than perhaps Northern Volusia. 

Otherwise, deep moisture resides across most of peninsula with warmer air in the mid levels keeping the demeanor of storm intensity down to mostly what one would expect from a Florida summer thunderstorm in August. 

coast sea breeze should march steadily eastward from late morning through late afternoon toward the east coast. Suspect the main focus might be around the boundary near Lake Okeechobee combined with the Lake Shadow and south of I-4 to near the Beach line along another surface boundary trailing low pressure east of Jacksonville. Therefore, the greater concentration of storms, showers, and late day cloud cover will be from Brevard County to Tampa Bay and southward.

TOMORROW: Many variations too detailed to go into for the next several days as there are shifts here and there in steering currents and surface winds, but the gist has been for most activity to remain away from the coasts by about 5-10 miles during the course of the day but perhaps drift off parts of the east coast around early to mid evening. Many afternoons will conclude with abundant cloud coverage and perhaps some areas on dripping storm debris rain.

Sporadic and Erratic Slowly Eastward Moving Pea Soup Storms Most Anywhere, Anytime

NOTHING DEFINITE TODAY, BUT AS OF 11AM ORANGE
IS THE MORE PREFERRED "THUNDER ZONE" FOR THE DAY
(Greatest amalgamation of thunder sum total ) 

TODAY: Weak low pressure circulation off the coast or near St Augustine to move little today into tonight as 'Bertha' moves north and well east of Florida. This broad low  circulation could be eventually absorbed into the same trough that is steering Hurricane Bertha northward by tomorrow, moving this weaker circulation up the east coast of the U.S toward the Carolinas.

 A lingering boundary remains across Florida from near Jax as shown in the next image. Best chance of storms might be along it and just east of that boundary,. Temperatures aloft remain warm though and steering is only toward the east about around 5 mph, so large rainfall totals could accumulate wherever a storm manages to go up. Small chance of perhaps a funnel cloud or even waterspout off the coasts as was observed yesterday off New Smyrna Beach, with radar showing some rotation off Sebastian inlet early last evening per weather radio alert. These would be primarily of marine concerns.

BEYOND: The Atlantic Ridge axis is forecast to assert itself from across the Florida Straits for the next two days beyond and then lift toward Lake Okeechobee. How far north it proceeds from there has not been consistent through consecutive GFS model runs. But in general, a SW flow aloft seems to be the prevailing trend  but for a day or some somewhere along the line, which means a continuation of that type of pattern we've been seeing most of this summer. 

Temperatures aloft are not being shown to cool as much as was indicated earlier, so strong storms might not be as much a threat as previously surmised, at least not through Wednesday . Inevitably though, chances are that tomorrow and the next two days to follow will reveal at least one lingering boundary left in the wake of Bertha, one of which so far is being reflected to be across South Florida  slowly to work to Central by later in the week. 

Time will tell if such will be the case though. That is important for information purposes, because if a boundary or two does exist, this will determine where the greater concentration of storm and shower activity will focus .

"Low Over Florida" - Bertha Stays East

 

Weak low pressure circulation centered over South Florida to be near Cape Canaveral later today leaves

little in steering. If it goes up over you, it might rain itself over you. Could be a waterspout given moisture

and light winds aloft, or perhaps a funnel where there is some kind of outflow boundary collision from

opposing rain showers and/or storms, Not expecting a big coverage though all in all due to slow storm motion

but big rainfall totals could occur where a storm does .   Things change tomorrow as low moves north.

Strong storms possible Tuesday – Friday though, steered slowly from west to east with colder air aloft. That is all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chance of Showers/Storms Mainly SouthEast Half of Peninsula

August 1, 2014

TODAY: Only some minor changes in the pattern today from yesterday and so too is the case for tomorrow. In brief, the amount of peninsular wide moistening that was advertised for today during the previous 48 hours  for today did no materialize as expected . Ridge axis straining from out in the Desert SW continues to bridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico nosing into Florida. Most evident by dry mid levels and warm 10C tempratures at 700mb on the mesoscale analysis page. Lack of moisture in the contributing cloud layer for storms and no sign of significant moistening there today before dark at least, will make a post on that reasoning  not contingent upon a change in both parameter s prior to 7-8pm.

Better stor, chances, but not exclusively so, appear to be shown in the orange zones. Latest KSC Profiles are showing more of a southwest to northeast wind component in the lower atmospheric levels than one would be led to believe to be the case based on the KSC sounding taken earlier. This can be noted by cumulus clouds passing off shore the North/Central Brevard area as of this wiring to back it up. Winds earlier were south but have backed over the past few hours.  Thus, we might see some showers right over the Cape Area in general to Merritt Island before the day is through, but heavier thunder with a 500mb temp down to -7.5C could mean a stronger isolated storm or two in the annotated areas in general before the day is through, though the west coast sea breeze could remain almost completely inactive but for the southern 1/3 of the state which might make the boundary collision suddenly apparent later today into early this evening by a surprise storm or two toward Orange/Western VOlusia/Central Osceola to eastern Polk counties.

TOMORROW: Variation of today as it looks now  but haven't honestly dove too deep into it given the confusion of this day which has yet to resolve itself on paper, so there seemed little point in the matter. 

Today's Weather Pattern Slowly in Translation

Sunrise - Cape Canaveral, FL This Morning

TODAY: Nothing is cut and dry today. Appears surface front that was stretched across Southern Florida yesterday is trying to retrograde back north, buckling in response to a short wave midlevel trough gliding across the Deep South during the afternoon. How far it will buckle and remain so is the big question. 

Currently, there is a respectable chance of storms as far north as North Brevard mainly along to west of US1, but how long those favorable conditions will remain is uncertain. Therefore, have drawn the area in to cover the bases.
Otherwise, the better chance of activity will again be from near the Vero or Ft Pierce latitude and south mainly along the eastern shores of Lake Okeechobee just in from the coast. Noting that as of the past two hours the Mesoscale analysis page is actually showing the most unstable conditions to be over Brevard County by some parameters (but this might only be temporary until the sea breeze kicks in). 

TONIGHT: GFS has been consistent for several runs showing the boundary pivoting back in time toward the NW  like the large minute hand of a clock going back in time...putting most of the peninsula in favorable rain chance conditions for Friday afternoon. The first to realize this effect might be along the immediate east coast in as far inland as I-95 overnight toward sunrise from Brevard into Southern Volusia County. Such conditions will remain until early afternoon after which point rains might shift further inland. The rain chance tomorrow goes down for far South Florida.

"The current pattern as been sitting pretty, but will soon...."

BEYOND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: Though moisture will be abundant, the better chances for rains at this time appear to remain just inland from the immediate east coast, more toward over and west of I-95 and to the west coast. But the pressure pattern is fairly weak in this next phase to last 2-3 days before a leaning toward the east side becomes apparent. All in all, back to the day by day basis scenarios Though every day might seem the same in the summer, they really are not at all. Especially when it can be observed that patterns tend to last in 2-3 day cycles in general outside of extenuating circumstances.

"....take Flight"

Showers/Thunder To be Absent North Half of State Today

"Another Depiction of Monday "

TODAY: Post trough across CEntral, depending on what one calls 'the cold front/ that has been advertised will determine where one believes it is located depending on what parameters one chooses and why. Could almost be tempted to say it has washed out while cleaning the state, as higher dew point air remains per the mesoscale page and NWS MLB/ KSC Local Data Integration across the South half of the state as shown here.

With clear skies to the north today suspect a heat trough will form down the spine of the state with a very weak meso-low circulation to form over West Central in General to move toward the ENE late into early evening. Sea Breezes are possible most areas but maybe South Florida. 

Moisture convergence up the east coast combined with outflow and cloud coverage / cloud shadow'd thermal gradient all combine with potential for showers or even a thunder as far north as Cape Canaveral after 6:30pm - 8pm but chances are if not by then the window of opportunity for that are is lost. Better chances will be from Vero Beach and South most areas of the state.

TOMORROW: Similar set up as high pressure ridge from the Four Corners region (aloft) noses across the Northern Gulf and toward Florida. This is where most of the dry air aloft is coming from (except for far north Florida where some continental post frontal dry air might also be an influence) as can be seen from the wind fields at jet stream level. 

The image above is showing a "low' over West Central, the image is for later today. This would be mainly thermally induced combined with the dashed 'trough axis' (also thermally induced) if it is to be at all, though guidance has been showing something similar for two days now; bring the low  if not over Brevard County by later, so that is only an estimation. 

Most activity to be south of the northern most 'orange arrow' today, but by tomorrow expect the activity will be further north., possible as far as I-4 on the east coast, not so much toward the interior until the ridge axis aloft from out west retreats and the pattern breaks down, which will be on Friday.

BEYOND:  Deep SSE flow in place for the next 2-3 day pattern through the weekend. Showers almost anywhere at any time along the east coast except perhaps from midnight - 6AM, but then working inland and toward the west coast by early afternoon.   Again, the tropical system which might be named remains non-threat to land masses at this time, but continues to appear to have some sort of indirect influences  to the overall wind fields which direct storm motion come early next week, but only for a day or so after which point a return to SW Flow aloft returns (as things stand now). 

Increased Rain/Storm Chances, Isolated Strong Storm Possible

Late Afternoon 'Convection" Offshore East Central Florida
which later  Delayed a Rocket Launch 

TODAY:  'Cold front ' as i'twere is located near I-10 this morning and based on forecasts appears will move very little during the day toward the latitude of Ormond Beach as the day progresses. Upper level cloud coverage might put a crimp on 'storm' and 'rain' chances with best convergence along the west and east coasts. Hard to ignore some of the higher wind parameters and lower 700mb temperatures aloft, so some storms could conceivably be 'quite breezy' to put it lightly in and in the vicinity of the heavier rain cores. The graphic shows spotty red areas for stronger activity but those are only to give an idea that some stronger storms could occur, though the greater likelihood appears to be from Seminole into Brevard, Indian River and St Lucie Counties.

WEDNESDAY: So far, not fully buying into what the TV Channel I was seeing yesterday was advertising. ..that being dry post frontal conditions except South Florida. The GFS has been inconsistent in regard to exactly how far south the drier air will reach. Noting that though this is being termed a cold front there really is no 'cold' air behind the boundary for Central and South Florida, only drier air through a deeper layer of the atmosphere. Will opt on the pessimistic side for Central Florida for the rain chances and throw in a chance of showers and/or thunder along and south of Rte 50 if not Rte 46  or a line running from Mims, FL west toward the North side of Tampa Bay. Better storm chances over South Central and South Florida, though.

THURSDAY: Low pressure circulation though weak will embody the entire state with a boundary running nearly across dead central if not a 'center' of circulation' over West Central somewhere . Best rain and storm chances up and down the entire east half of the peninsula (as opposed to dry all but South Florida as was heard on TV yesterday). No doubt, this blog easily could be out to lunch, but just to be on awares, is all.

BEYOND: The GFS continuously brings a tropical storm or minimal hurricane toward Florida only to curve north then eventually NE east of the Bahamas. There are several reasons in the future why that would be so, and it seems to be model consensus. Though some days will favor more the interior areas to the west coast, it's too early to say that the east coast couldn't see some morning activity even so on those days. In short, a return to summer like conditions other than the disruption in our pattern once whatever happens in the tropics happens and approaches the state which is always the case as  a general rule; anything that forms and heads toward Florida will put a damper on forecast accuracy the closer it approaches , indirectly.

Developing Thunderstorm near Indian Harbour Beach as viewed from Cape Canaveral

 

Warmer Than Usual Eastern Beaches, Showers/Thunder Very Isolated But Possible

Mammatiform - Cumuluslike Pertubations Underneath  a Storm Anvil that was  Offshore Late Sunday  

TODAY IN BRIEF: Westerly winds at the surface and aloft could make for an unusually warm afternoon along the east coast of Florida. There 'could' possibly be a seabreeze formation though late and after peak heating hours from the Cape and south which will stick very close to the coast east of US1 for Central and closer toward east of I95 parts of South Central/South Florida. Chance again of quicker moving shower activity from west to east inland during the day as noted, with some possible bolts of lightning as showers peak out. Best chance though of more concentrated lightning activity it appears would be nearer to on the beaches to just offshore the beaches after 5pm through dark from Brevard County and south toward Martin or even Palm Beach counties.

A cold front is approaching - to enter Central Florida before noon time Wednesday.

Expected location of cold front at 2pm tomorrow across Panhandle

TUESDAY: Possible earlier onset of showers and thunder near and north of I-4 on Tuesday. Better chances of some stronger storms in regard to gusty winds south of I-4 after 2pm. Mid-level temperatures should drop some tomorrow as opposed to the warmer air aloft today, resulting in earlier onset north, and stronger wind gusts further south ahead of and in heavier rains.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Front at the surface to make it to at least Lake Okeechobee but just above the surface more toward Central Florida,. The focus for storms should be along the surface boundary though, so the best chance of storms or showers will be from near Sebastian Inlet and south unless the front does not progress as far south as guidance indicates.

FRIDAY-MONDAY: A weak low pressure circulation is shown to encompass all of Florida by the weekend with mid level troughiness over the Deep South region and the northern Gulf putting the state in SW  flow aloft, but with S-SSE surface winds. Moisture abundant will make for an increased chance of thunderstorms and some just a little stronger than standard fare. Mid level cooler temperatures might make for an earlier onset of activity some days, Beach activities not looking so great but before 2-3pm in general all weekend unless activity gets a start by or before 1pm (esp. Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River, Broward, Dade Counties)..

Lower Chance Of a Potent Late Day Storm or Two East Side

"SUNDAY MORNING"

TODAY: KSC sounding came in with a similar temperature profile as yesterday aloft, and wind profile comparable to the late day sounding as well. The only difference is less readily available moisture. Two questions today is will the sea breeze truly manifest and if so how far inland will it progress. The other negating factor (other than less moisture aloft) is cirrus clouds far offshore that might work their way across a part of the state during peak heating. OTHERWISE, under the pretense that the sea breeze penetrates at least as far as US1 (from Brevard County and south) which might be a tough one and cirrus do not get too thick, there is a chance of a fluke freak storm again today primarily from North Brevard area and south toward Vero Beach in general after 5pm IF a storm can punch the drier air in the mid levels.  


The west coast sea breeze has already kicked in and is beginning it's eastward march to the Atlantic coast while land breezes persist on the east coast. Noting that the GFS now coming in is showing close to no activity today much of anywhere, though some is already in progress, so went more with the RAP guidance .    Thus, today's post might be overly generous on the rainfall coverage and intensity.

Very general outline for thunder chances in Orange though might have
been able to extend it further North or South. Main thing
watching for today is something 'like' what occurred yesterday
LATE in the day but not with as much coverage 

MONDAY: So far, driest day even yet still. The GFS shows today and tomorrow to be very similar in rainfall areas, with one spot near North Brevard and the other over far SE Florida, but with less coverage.

"Yesterday"

TUESDAY: Cold front to work toward North Florida. Increasing rain chances north of a Sebastian Inlet to South side of Tampa Bay in general. 

"TODAY"

WEDNESDAY: Greater rainfall and storm coverage again, though this time mainly SOUTH of a line running from DAB (Daytona Beach) to Tampa Bay.

"Yesterday Once More"

BEYOND: Front shown to make it into South Central Florida (at least) and linger in that general area for two days near Lake Okeechobee , then as mentioned yesterday, lifting back north as broad low pressure takes shape over the Deep South in nearly the same location as it was located several days ago. All in all, the state remains in SW-W flow aloft, with steering toward the east. Finer details on frontal location will determine where rain chances will exist Wednesday-Thursday but suspect at this point it will be the south half of the state or from near Cape Canaveral and south for two days before state wide coverage again enters the picture closer to the end of the week and into next weekend. 


We might not see a sea breeze at all on the east coast come Tuesday which might put a damper on storm strength but time will tell, but which could mean some 'extra warm' high temperatures (like today and again tomorrow will be for those at the immediate east coast beaches).