Chances of Some Storms Again Today - Weekend

TODAY: Boundary that was in place yesterday has moved little and never did fully wash out. As a result, rain chances today will be in close to the same places (in general) as   yesterday with little change in the upper level pattern other than some slightly stronger winds aloft.  

However, as was the case yesterday as well, though a disturbance in the upper levels is pointed out (vorticity) by the models to approach North Central later today, it is accompanied by extensive cloud cover. Cloud cover does not bode well for surface based instability which would require a good degree of sunshine for heating in the low levels (to form thunderstorms). Regardless, based on satellite imagery trends will call for 'worst case' scenario (perhaps) and go with the graphic below indicating a potentially strong storm or two later today toward the east coast mainly if and only if the east coast sea breeze gets a boost. As of noon there is little sea breeze to speak of but it could pick up in the next two hours. Ample moisture and instability already in place means as soon as it even hints at picking up some showers could go  up just west of the coast or near it.  

Again, like the past two days, localized urban flooding might become an issue for those areas that have already received several inches and do not drain off very well...such as Osceola or parts of Orange or Seminole Counties.

The chance for Red Zone Storms (Stronger) is 'Conditional" and really not very likely
without some good sunshine. The best region for that would be more like Southeast Florida

WEEKEND -: Slightly better chance of showers or a storm or two nearer the East Coast on Saturday than previous models indicated. Reason being the short-wave ridge isn't showing to have as much of a sedating influence (sinking air) as was surmised yesterday with as much as buckle in the flow, but that could always change. Overall, still a chance of something happening near the east coast mainly on  Saturday until later model runs suggest otherwise.

 THROUGH -  MAYBE TUESDAY (?): Wild card Stud.  Could be some strong storms any of these days but as the last few days have indicated, it's a play it day by day situation since disturbances aloft are impossible to time this far out and there are too many other mitigating factors involved such us precedent cloud cover which might be in place any of these days playing the switch bait.

"Wild Card Stud" ~ Whoever Has the Bait  Gets  the Storm 

'Potentially' Active Day (by April Standards) at Hand

" Gimme   Higher  Ground "

TODAY   Fairly active rain day yesterday over and north of I-4 mainly and toward the east coast as the anticipated disturbance 'noted' in the blog post crossed that region. It appears it might have provided the impetus for   weak surface low development well south southeast of the Georgia coast with a trailing 'frontal like' boundary across Central Florida. One model indicates that boundary to lay across South Central at the surface but just above ground to be across Central Direct. Not sure it will as active north of I-4 today as it was yesterday toward the East Coast such as over Flagler and Northern Volusia, but further south toward Brevard (interior mainly) and south around the Lake Okeechobee region such as near Ft pierce within 30 miles and across the state (as shown below) might be more active. 

If activity gets an earlier start as some guidance shows, stronger storms might occur over South Central later in the day as a result of outflow boundaries from further north as a result of rain cooled air, but interior Central regions might also see a stronger storm or two briefly. The bigger 'hazard' today looks like it could be localized ponding or small scale flooding in rural areas as Volusia, Seminole, parts of Volusia, and Polk Counties (at least) have seen some good rainfall over the past few days (outside of the lightning hazard ritual).

Expect that we might see a concentrated area of  rain area  today as well (esp. after dark) in the storm decay phase, but exactly where and if so is hard to say, but Central o South Central looks the most likely at this point.

FRIDAY  looks to be another active day, but of a totally different character as the surface boundaries will have dissipated with  a   SW steering flow taking hold for activity to migrate toward the east coast  .  This will mostly be noticed therefore by beach side east coasters beach   where rain chances might be greater there on this day in some locations

(As noted several posts ago, upper level Southern Branch Jet Stream winds will be coming into play, slightly ever so much perhaps later today even which if so could keep activity going for a while tonight. Otherwise, they might be more in play tomorrow for INITIATION time as opposed to dissipation time (today - Thursday). )

BEYOND  Won't elaborate at this point , but rain chances remain through the weekend though Saturday looks to be a much slower day as short-wave ridging ripples past. Continues to appear now that Monday or Tuesday might be the last hooray, but only for perhaps 3 days when rain chances again to emerge on the threshold,  knocking. Sunday also looks like an active day.

Amalgamous April Continues - Better Chance of Storms Today (Mainly North)

TODAY: After yesterday's overall 'lull' in the action (though there was some), it appears that today has a slightly better chances at more rain coverage today over Central to Eastern Florida . Though there was some activity yesterday it was comparatively sparse to previous days. Guidance is showing it to be dry at time over all of the South Half of the state, and not sure this region will recover at all, but for perhaps this evening (if at all) though some models are breaking out rains down that way.  For now, given the consensus of what would appear to be 'low chances' South Florida will throw in a few showers/storms regardless. The best chance being along the Lake/Ocean Breeze Conflict Zone near Ft Pierce up toward nearly Vero Beach.

Otherwise, at time much of Central rests in the wake of a weak disturbance that passed overhead early this morning. There is another on the way, so timing is most everything today. 

The zone to be watched as of the noon time area shows around Volusia and Flagler County, but North Brevard could get in the act as well, especially after 5 or 6 pm toward 8pm. Some guidance implies linger rains if not even thunder as late as 11 pm tonight over parts of Central of not Eastern South Central, so we'll see.

BEYOND: Models continue to vary on how long this Amalgomous April Blend of wet season like weather meets the 'Dry Season' will continue. 

Will it be over as soon as Saturday or last into Monday (at least)?  Time will tell. For now will shoot for at least into Sunday decreasing from North to south on Monday.  A lull of a few days at least is foreseen before perhaps a repeat begins again later next week though.

Day to day  forecasts a different matter. Much will depend on the passage of upper level disturbances and the timing that they do pass over combined with sea breeze convergences.  If a disturbance passes over at the wrong time, it could actually 'dampen' (bad choice of words) the rain chances in the afternoon during prime time despite other favorable conditions due to subsidence (sinking) air that is left in their wake that would put down the kibosh to what would otherwise have been a better rain chance (put an end to; dispose of decisively) . .

Atypical April To Continue Very Warm with Rain Chances Into the Weekend

April Towers Bring  Spring Flowers

TODAY: For the blog today, big wagering guess at hand.  Most models earlier this morning in the short term showed near NO RAIN at all nearly statewide today (HRRR and RAP e.g.) with the NAM not far behind, whereas the Global Forecast System (GFS) model breaks out 'rain abundance' Central Florida later today. Not much has changed either in subsequent model runs. Instability not runny quite as high today  and steering currents are lower than yesterday. Most of the discrepancies might be coming from whether High pressure to the south will build too far north with rising 500 mb heights for if that does occur our Prime Storm Time might be snuffed out entirely. But if not, then it's all gang  - bangers once again. Suspect today might play the wild card out though, so would not be surprised to see lower coverage today, if not significantly so. But to favor consistency regardless in the wake of yesterday's active shortwave.

 If nothing more, it will be interesting to see which model fares best..the short range guidance as of 11AM or the Long Range GFS model of 8AM this morning:

Best Guess for now. South Florida date coming in is shows drying in progress which would imply 'no or few storms' and north Florida per the short term Mesoscale/RAP shows a deficient in favorable storm conditions , esp. NE Florida . This leaves Central until sea breezes kick in, then everything will change anyway in that area as well. GFS also shows the highest rainfall total by late tonight to be East Brevard County which would be most interesting if so, as right now that looks to be highly unlikely. We can see how models fared today is the gist of it

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Not going to venture too far out into the Deep End as it appears an upper level disturbance or more than one might be approaching the region for these days. Timing , location, and cloud coverage on those days will determine a lot of factors as far as what is experienced locally from benign to quite active. In the end, rain 'chances' (emphasis) remain but that's where it begins and ends for now as far as the blog post is concerned.

BEYOND: Warm temperatures continue with higher than normal rain chances which is not necessarily saying all that much since this time of year is normally in the dry season.

"Heavy' Thunderstorms Again Possible Today Especially North Central/East Half

Sunday Morning ( Cape Canaveral)

TODAY: As of 6AM appears another active thunderstorm/rain shower day at hand. Even at this early hour morning temperatures and instability are running a bit above the norm near the east coast in some locations. (not that temperatures and these recent rains are not already well out of the norm). An upper level 'disturbance' is noted on satellite imagery much as was the case two days ago in almost the same location as well at the time of day (noted in image below).

Moderate instability (CAPE: Convective Available Potential Energy) , little to no capping, and cooler air aloft in the midst of upper level energy (vorticity) along with lake and sea breeze interactions (sounds almost like summer, unusually so for this time of year) in the midst of ample atmospheric moisture content (PWAT, precipitable water) should be the needing ingredients. Steering should favor interior and eastern sides (especially north of SR 60) for late day activity that might be stronger.

 Earlier in the day we could see some showers or 'weaker thunder' form as the east coast sea breezes begins its frontal march toward the west. It will be late day though as the west meets east in combination of other pre-existing boundaries that the spurious  'Pop  Drop Plop"  storms will provide the impetus for possibly stronger wind gusts and/or small hail. Storm activity could roll off the east coast mainly north of Cape Canaveral but boundary interactions could still result in 'decent thunder' further south as well (especially late).

Might have to watch for  a 'concentrated fizzle faze area' of light to moderate rain perhaps in the Volusia toward Osceola Count/Seminole Counties toward and/or after dark (which might result in localized urban 'flooding').

BEYOND: Again as noted before, it is tempting to call each day as it looks from overnight guidance, but there are too many mitigating factors at play to go beyond each day as it comes. For example, Tuesday looks to be much drier for the state overall in the wake off today's S/W (short-wave) but guidance is favoring 'north half-east side" from mainly Melbourne and North late day. So we can see if that holds true yet still tomorrow.

Rain chances/storms still possible through the weekend, as noted previously, with additions to the variables involved heading toward Thursday as stronger Southern Jet Stream winds being to enter the picture increasing upper level divergence and/or shear.

Rain/Thunder Chances to Prevail through Next Weekend

Leading Arcus From a Thunderstorm's Leading Gust Front Leading Outflow ~ Cape Canaveral Saturday

RADAR SERIES FROM YESTERDAY

"Severe thunderstorm Warning"

TODAY: More moisture today but with a slight change in the wind fields will mean more storm coverage but in different places at different times today. East coast sea breeze inland penetration should be rather deep today so stronger storms along the west coast/east coast sea breeze union might occur a bit further west today than yesterday with very little steering back to the east.

Regardless, many east coast locations might 'cloud over' early this evening due to anvil storm debris (cirrus) clouds caught up in the upper levels westerlies (from west to east). A few stronger storms possible mainly near to west of Orlando and east of I-75 or near it with small hail and stronger wind gusts. For now, disregarding the formation in the Gulf as shown below.

There is a chance though that east coasters could see rain again (as some locations did last night) well after dark toward midnight (even) once the sea breeze along the east coast retreats though only light or moderate rain would be the call it seems now if at all.

Land Surfing the Storm

BEYOND: Daily Basis is the best guess for time/locations of rains. Only factor that changes much as given now is the steering flow which might become more from west toward the east by around Thursday, otherwise predominately it will be regions 15 miles and more from any coast that will have the better late day storm chances.  Another factor might be indiscriminate upper level impulses that guidance isn't fully latching on to that could boost rain chances at seemingly odd times of the day or night. (or induce more cloud cover). Otherwise, temperatures continue to run well above the norm for this time of year (especially the morning lows) coupled with better than the average rain chance during what is usually a relatively dry time of year.

Long Wave Pattern Change in Progress - Rain/Thunderstorms Today

TODAY: Anticipated (for those monitoring) changes in the upper atmospheric pattern slowly emerging -- manifesting at the lower levels as a cold front that cuts across the Deep South and drops into North Florida later today. An upper trough near the Southern California coast and resulting upper Southern Branch Jet Streak is expected in some form or another to approach Florida toward the latter parts of next week slowly but surely to increase the winds aloft. The GFS has been advertising this pattern change for several days now (with much inconsistency, however, and as a result a variety of solutions).

Meanwhile, some colder air aloft with deeper south to southwest flow in the surface to mid levels will give the needed atmospheric moisture boost combined with moderate instability in the 1500-2500 (at least) CAPE range  for a better chance of thunder today. The only real fly in the ointment at this time is the potential for precedent cloud cover to overtake the area though so far no model guidance shows that will be the case (or at least, a factor) at this hour.

Though thunder is possible over a fairly large area, will watch toward the Central-East Side
 and also south of Lake Okeechobee (not shown). Will see how clouds to the west moving east affect (or not) instability later in the morning toward early afternoon

There is a small chance of some stronger storms along the east coast sea breeze boundary just west of the immediate coast toward the interior regions but closer to the coast in the Central/Southern Volusia to Far North Brevard region. The predominant mode appears now will be rain showers but again, some thunderstorms, possibly a bit strong are also possible later in the day as the west coast sea breeze works across to the east coast sea breeze marriage more than 1/2 way across the state (favoring the east half of the state especially from Southern Volusia South to West Central Dade County) 

Cape Canaveral Peacocks Strut Along "The Path"

 

SUNDAY: The frontal boundary will be phased out and absorbed by high pressure passing well to the north of the state. Sunday might see a decrease in activity as a result mostly favoring the interior and west side, though showers could still impact any area of the east coast at almost any time as it appears the moisture overall isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Cloud cover in varying degrees throughout the day and evening.

MONDAY-FRIDAY: Day by day for now until guidance gets better aligned. There are hints that Tuesday could be a rather active day as low level winds become variable at times (allowing for sea breeze and lake boundaries to act) but SW to NE steering increases. Overall..steering remains from west to east though only at about 10 mph or less (slow). Sea breeze convergence activity is the best bet. GFS shows rain chances across various portions of the state into next Saturday though that could change but only be degrees of overall coverage. Just exactly where though will be determined daily.  Meanwhile, the aforementioned Southern Branch Jet Stream winds could come into play by Friday or Thursday which would mean better opportunities for stronger storms once again for a day or so (perhaps).

Chance of Isolated Inland Showers - Strong Storm or Two Late (North Central Mainly)

"If a Plains Tornado Hit Brevard (It Might Look like this controlled burn smoke)"

TODAY: A 'back-door frontal boundary appears to have ground to a halt across Central Florida. last night lightning was visible off shore along the boundary and the showers remain in close contact with it even right up to this time of 6:30AM. 

The boundary should be washing out today but leave an area of slightly enhanced atmospheric moisture across the vicinity of its skeletal demise. That, coupled with what appears could be enough surface heating (despite some clouds to come across today) along with sea breeze boundaries,  would be enough to set off some showers perhaps and a thunderstorm or two later. 

Any storm that can get going (if so) over land prior to nightfall could hedge toward the strong side as the temperatures aloft are very cold. Looks like a typical 'early convective season' type set up, though conditions could be more favorable. Temperatures will continue to be warm, a bit like yesterday but cooler along the immediate coasts.

GOOD FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Both days look dry and warm as another back door front slides in after dark on Saturday. The GFS is showing some breezy winds for Easter (Sunday) morning along the east coast with perhaps even a light sprinkle or perhaps only some cloud coverage. The latest NAM says it will never make it as far south as Central Florida though; for now will ride with the very consistent GFS model which brings the front through followed by a breezy, cooler, and 'potentially' a bit of a cloudy day near the east coast at times. 

Controlled Burn on Radar (Smoke Moving Off Shore)

EASTER SUNDAY: Per GFS, this would be the coolest temperature'd day of the upcoming week, assuming the boundary does indeed slide by. Nothing cold though: lows in the 60Fs, highs in the 70Fs and maybe cloud coverage. Overall, not 'ideal conditions' for beach side Sunrise Services (unless the NAM verifies) due to it being 'breezy'.

NEXT WEEK: Wind shifting from ENE-E to SE to South  Sunday - Tuesday ..so that from that day through Friday -  warm with little chance of showers or storms indicated at this point. No cold air intrusions are even being implied at all by the long range GFS beyond even Day 10. We might be 'out of the woods' at last from Winter's ICY GRIP. 

" ...it's 57F Out and Not Sure I want to get my feet wet"

.  

 

Much Cooler Through Sunday - Cloudier Later

Before the Weekend ~ Friday Morning

TODAY: Long heralded cold front finally cleared and in came the cooler air on brisk northwest winds after midnight. Though it is mostly sunny in many locations mid-morning, there appears a fairly good chacne increasing high clouds will aid in keeping temperatures down along with the cold air advective process already in place with highs limited to the lower-mid 60Fs many areas but warmer to the south end of the state.

Satellite animation shows increasing high cirrus clouds approaching from the SW toward Noon time
(South Florida already under denser cloud cover) 

TONIGHT/SUNDAY: Clouds should be exiting out all areas prior to midnight tonight and Sunday looks much more pleasant with somewhat 'quieter wind' more from the North to North North east. The latest GFS shows a little bit of a 'cool wedge' working south along the Northern Coast into the Cape toward Cocoa Beach, making it cooler tomorrow in that area near the coast than today. Will be interesting to see how that plays out but suspect it might be over-doing it south of the Cape where ocean nearshore water temperatures have been running in the lower 70Fs for quite a while which we should be albe to expect at least that much out of the day in that location. Otherwise, sunny.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Chance of some increasing high clouds once again with very cool mornings as wind shifts to a more westerly component. Several areas of high pressure are forecast to rotate from the gulf and across Florida at the mid-levels in the next week which will keep fronts out of the picture other than a backdoor front to go by very early Tuesday with another later in the period. This will have little affect locally except on the wind direction and to aid in keeping down the temperatures just a bit but very close to 'normal' regardless in lieu of the much above normal we've been experiencing for over the past 12 days. Mornings will continue to be very cool with mid-upper 50Fs abundant to lower 60Fs some areas especially very near the beaches. Light winds though and pleasant afternoons.

WEDNESDAY-BEYOND: So far several very warm days are shown with almost no chance of rain.

a.

Chance of Higher Rain Coverage Today with Gusting Winds Possible In and Near Showers or Storms

Every Cumulus Cloud and Bougainvillea  has a Silver Lining 

TODAY: "Pre-frontal like 'trough has sliced through Central Florida well before sunrise with rain showers on its wings as it presses south. Meanwhile, the actual cold front is now across the Western Panhandle ; timing places it close to a Cape Canaveral to Sarasota line around 8 pm tonight.

Meanwhile, all guidance shows appreciable 'air mass recovery' during the morning and into the mid afternoon hours in regard to atmospheric low level destabilization in the presence of increasing wind shear and cold air aloft. 

The area to watch will be mostly near the boundary of the front but a secondary area could emerge across East Central during peak heating hours if the guidance is correct. The idea for some stronger storms is for mainly wind gusts which could be stronger in even only a heavy rain shower which seems to be the more common mode of conditions that will emerge today. 

The latest full run of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is showing only maybe 5 storms in the below graphic areal coverage range capable of producing anything more than a flash of lighting or two other than one near Tampa Bay earlier in the day (as an example at this point in time, only). At least lightning that would be cloud to ground.

The below image is mostly taking into the account of the potential perhaps of prefrontal activity to generate across Central due to that it will have more time to recover from this early day activity though another area further north to watch for is also possible along the east coast toward Ormond Beach. Further south the front will be too far away during peak heating is the reason for leaving it out of the 'stronger storm suggestion'.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Not much change otherwise from previous post. Lows Saturday through Monday morning in the upper 40F's to lower 50F's mainly along and north of I-4 with more common mid to upper 50Fs  more widespread (except warmer South Florida). Afternoon highs in the mid-upper 60F's.

Sunrise at the Cocoa Beach Pier

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Continued very cool in the mornings especially away from the immediate beaches. The high pressure area following the front is expected to settle south to directly across Central Florida by Monday then move off to the east the rest of the week. Very light winds with good radiational cooling at this time of year alone would make it cool in the morning but warming rapidly within the first few hours after sunrise. Highs in the mid-upper 70F's, with the coast these mornings ( along A1A) the warmer in the mornings, but most everyone will still be waking up (if earlier) to 50Fs readings.

WEDNESDAY: Warmer to normal or above through Saturday. Next front is slated for the Saturday time frame.

Have Umbrealla Handy This Afternoon-Early Evening; Rain Also Possible Friday

TODAY: Cold front still over 24 hours away. As of noon the air mass is not conducive for storms let along barely a rain shower over Central but air mass modification theoretically is in progress as we write (or read) going into mid afternoon to early evening. SSW wind most of the day with perhaps a small side shore component right at the coast near the Cape after 3pm. Increasing chances of showers and possible thunder late as West Coast sea breeze component slide across the state to the east coast later this afternoon. Instability is not overly dramatic but temperatures aloft are cooling.
The best chance of thunder appears to be East Central with Southeast sectors having a slightly less of a chance.

Cover of Thunder Might be Rather Low but Rain Shower Coverage Might Be Notable
Especially East Central (East of Orlando) later in the Day

FRIDAY: Cold front to move into Central Early Afternoon and to lie somewhere near a Titusville to Port Charlotte Line around 6-8pm as it moves on south. Increasing Cloud coverage especially by noon time with spotty rain showers prior to the immediacy of the near front's approach with increasing rain chances going into the afternoon as it approaches. 

Though winds aloft will be increasing with bulk shear and temperatures too will be cold there which would favor strong storms, suspect the majority of the rain fall will not be in the form of thunder though it's always possible due to lack of instability and the unidirectional nature of the vertical component of the wind fields. The bigger story will be the post-frontal weather for Saturday through Mid-Week next week.

WEEKEND WEATHER: Breezy on Saturday and quite cool with a high in the lower-mid 60Fs though the NAM has it much warmer and lows in the upper 40Fs to mid 50Fs both days.

Wind to let up a bit on Sunday, but overall Saturday seems to be 'the worst' of the two days with the cool air and windier conditions in place.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Continue cool in the mornings with afternoon climbing toward normal range (as opposed to the above normal we've been experiencing). Still looks liek a back door front will move in Tuesday but it's affects might be close to minimal if even noticeable to the outside observer.

Winter to Rear it's Ugly Sneer This Weekend - Possible Thursday Thunder

Feral Cats Enjoying an Early Morning Spring Stroll along the Old Beaten Path

TODAY-TONIGHT: Cool temperatures to prevail but air mass modification to   warmer with higher  "ew points" and overall increasing atmospheric moisture is awaiting a return northward toward sunrise into tomorrow afternoon as winds become east to south east and eventually south to south south west by mid morning Thursday. The latest "North American NAM (Model)" shows just enough instability that thunder could conceivably occur as temperatures aloft take a lofty drop going into the late morning hours tomorrow and as winds in that same upper region increase ahead of an approaching cold front.

"Royal Mansions"

THURSDAY: Chance of morning showers but more likely after noon time into mid-afternoon and early evening as a surge of moisture from the northern Tropics lifts from South Florida into Central during the day accompanied by stronger winds and cold air aloft that will be moving in coincident. Chances are for now it will be mostly rain showers with increasing cloud cover but thunder cannot be ruled out. The cold front will be moving in on North Florida with a chance of thunder and rain there as well but for a different reason than further south toward Central/South Florida.

 

SIDE NOTE: The Other Night (Monday): East Central toward Canaveral received 1" of rain in about 15 minutes (at least in my  rain gauge)  as this isolated shower (isolated as in the only one of two in the state moved across) 

FRIDAY- SATURDAY:  Cold front to slide south down the Peninsula during the day. Increased cloud cover with mainly rain showers to a large expanse of rain with maybe some embedded thunder from late morning (north) toward Central by early afternoon through sunset. Clearing well after dark some time.

Heads up: Return to winter 'like temperatures' for 48 hours this entire weekend with only slow warming into mid-week. 

Cold front to cross Central Florida sometime 'during to just after' sunset Friday give or take an hour or so followed but a notable drop in temperatures after midnight. Low Saturday morning could be in the mid--upper 40Fs north side of Orlando and Lake County to Western Volusia with upper 40Fs through the lower to mid 50Fs further south but warmer still all of South Central and South Florida. It's been quite a while since we've had such a big cool down after prolonged above normal temperatures, the shock value index will be the factor.  Highs  in the lower-mid 60Fs Saturday and breezy.

SUNDAY: Another very cool to almost 'cold start' to the day relative to where we've been for the past 2 or more weeks now with lows similar to the previous morning. Wind will be less so won't fee as cold as it will on Saturday where winds are expected to remain elevated all day.

Spring Sprang but will Retreat For A Few Days

MONDAY: At this point, Monday looks like a near Chamber of Commerce Day as high pressure will be centered almost directly over head. Near Calm but very cool morning will warm rapidly into the lower-mid 70Fs.

TUESDAY: Yet another very cool start to the day but warming more as the high pressure shifts slowly shifts east. Watching to see if a back door cold front passes down though to keep temperatures cool yet longer.

BEYOND: Slow warm up more notable Wednesday and Thursday but not as much as would be hoped. A back door cold front might got through around Tuesday which will suppress what would be a much more rapid warm up. otherwise.

Much Cooler Sunday and Monday, Rain with some Desolate Storm Activity Today

Warm Weather To be Taking Off For A Time Late Week

TODAY: As suspected might occur, rain-showers and increasing cloud cover already in progress before sunrise. Infrared Satellite animation shows a large canopy of cloud cover associated with mainly rain-showers spreading across the north half of the state as of 530AM with rains underneath as shown in the next image. With the given conditions and no sign of improving sky conditions, expect cooler temperatures today mainly in the 70Fs to perhaps some lower 80Fs (warmer Southern portions). There could still be some thunder and maybe even a stronger storm or two, but very isolated if at all.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Wind will be a bit northeasterly but light tomorrow as boundary appears will make to the Lake Okeechobee area and then lift back north going into Wednesday. Warmer on Wednesday and Thursday with a slight chance of a shower but too low to get to specifics in regard to location and timing at this point.

FRIDAY: First true cold front in quite some time now to move through in the late Friday through early Saturday time frame, but will have to wait to narrow down on specifics given how far out in time the passage is from now. It might end up between up to 24 hours later for all we know at this point. Better chance of rain though associated with the boundary and possibly thunderstorms as well.

SATURDAY-MONDAY: Sometime within this time frame is shown a significant cool down from the past 10 days or so that we've been experiencing, albeit temperatures have been running well above seasonal norms for quite some time. 

Latest GFS is showing some mid-upper 40Fs into Central with afternoons in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs. This might be overkill though given the higher sun angle; regardless, much cooler weather is in store come at least later in the weekend into early next week, without a significant but only gradual warm up heading into mid week, next week. Nothing unbearable though, and rather short in duration as would be expected (at least).