Near Record Warmth through Thursday Night & Then Christmas Eve (At First Glance)

72F at Sunrise  - Cape Canaveral Tuesday Morning

TODAY: Frontal Boundary has found it's final resting place across North Central Florida this afternoon where greater cloud cover exists along with some spotty light rain. The boundary will eventually lift back north as another front moves out of the Great Plains with its attendant surface low forming over Oklahoma toward Florida late Wednesday into Early Friday.

Dying Frontal Boundary Shown by Light Blue Dashed Line

Obvious to See Warmest Temperatures Today will be South of I-4 (Central and South Florida)
South of the front and away from the Clouds

TONIGHT: Much like last night in many areas of Central and South Florida. Chance of some fog again possible. It was fairly wide-spread this morning but not all areas experienced it.

WEDNESDAY: Temperatures in many areas will be much like today, but warmer toward I-4 and north as the old boundary lifts back north. Not much in the rain-fields showing in model data. Highs in the lower to mid-80Fs or about 8-12 degrees above climatic norms.

THURSDAY: Better chance of afternoon rain-showers as wind  becomes more Southwesterly in advance of the next front. Chance of near record highs along the east coast mainly south of I-4 toward Brevard/Indian River County south toward Ft Pierce contingent upon amount of cloud cover.

FRIDAY: Frontal Boundary  plowing down the state early through mid-day Friday passing through Central generally between 7AM - noon time. Chance that the warmest temperatures of the day will be experienced across North Central - Central within a few hours either side of sunrise with falling temperatures more assured (or holding steady) around the 1PM time frame as the full surge of drier air moves in. Gustier NW-NNW winds to move in with the cooler air. 

Morning 'day time highs' should be in the upper 60Fs range but could fall toward the mid-upper 50Fs nearer to I-4 and closer to the 58-62F mark across Central (and yet warmer south) by mid-afternoon accompanied by very gusty winds as skies eventually clear from north to south. Chance of light rain Central through about 9AM as a first best guess..then cloudy but with rapid clearing by 1pm on a line running from Cape Canaveral to Tampa Bay (for example). 

As can be seen below, per the morning GFS run the True Front of colder air moves in right at PEAK HEATING hours over Central Florida with rapid clearing. This could create quite a bit of mixing if the timing of the GFS is right making for gusting and very cool winds (air).  

Image shows Pre-frontal Boundary followed by the Drier Air ('green region) 3-5 hours later

SATURDAY: Coolest day round the clock. The warmest spot as winds start to swing around to being from the North should be near Beach-side at the Cape and South as shown below . This is the typically 'warmest spot' in the state when wind is from the North to just east of North in the winter. Lows away from the beaches in the mid-upper 40Fs but closer to low-mid 50Fs closer to the beaches. Much will depend though on how quickly the winds become more northerly. Often the GFS is too quick on the wind swinging around - and if so - the beaches north of Vero Beach might end up seeing something like a 'surprise 46F' reading . Highs on Saturday north of a Cocoa Beach to Tampa line might not reach 60F. But, changes are in the offing soon enough for overnight wind will swing just enough so that by...

IMAGE COURTESY OF NWS, TAMPA

SUNDAY MORNING: East coast temperatures near A1A south of The Cape never really drop off much after dark...with morning lows in the mid-upper 50Fs to near 60F. Sunday still looks to be a cool day though with highs in the mid-upper 60Fs but for South Florida.

MONDAY: Return toward 'Seasonal Norms' with lows in the upper 60Fs and highs in mid-70Fs once again but continued a bit breezy from a more easterly direction.

EXTENDED: Warming yet still to possible 'record highs' once again going into Mid-Week through Christmas Eve (Tuesday through Thursday). Next rain chance so far is being shown (after early Saturday) to be sometime late Christmas Day with the next front , but way too soon to say for now. Generally speaking..the outlook as of now for Central and South Florida is a  'Toasty Warm' Christmas Eve going into Christmas Day, no fireplace necessary.

A snowy Christmas Eve and Day appears in the offing for many mountainous areas along and west of the Continental Divide even into northern Arizona, The Four Corners Regions, the Inter-mountain Region near the Great Salt lake, and parts of Northern California.

Most snowfall Christmas Eve/Day should occur west of
the Continental Divide

Near Record High Temperatures Upcoming Week

TODAY: Moist morning pre-sunrise this Sunday already as Atlantic Ridge holds fast barring any cold fronts through the mid-term from impacting Peninsular Florida. Deeper moisture to work north during the day with an increase in clouds today as opposed to yesterday's full sunshiny warmth.

Chance of showers could increase from The South northward heading toward sunset into the late evening hours (Central Florida). The deeper moisture might continue further north into mid-day Monday as wind shifts from east to southeast; then eventually south by ...

MONDAY: ...a Breezier Monday morning with decreasing rain chance. Monday afternoon is seeing southwest wind and very warm with highs in the mid-80Fs unless (and this will be the case on any of potential record high temperature breaking days this week)..clouds prohibit peak heating at prime time in the noon-3 PM time frame.

TUESDAY: Front now on approach appears to lose identity near the I-10 . Continued moist and a bit 'sticky' especially early morning hours as winds decrease. Another front will be following toward the end of the work-week in the very progressive weather pattern that is affecting mainly the Western U.S. and across the far north. Attendant low pressure system today forming over Oklahoma will be lifting NNE toward the Canadian Border with the next one in line to do something similar.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Two more very warm days, especially away from the coastal influence of the sea breeze. Chances of showers are very low south of I-4. Thursday seems as of now to be the better bet for a chance of some 'near record highs' (mid-upper 80Fs range) once again, though clouds will be a deciding factor on this day as well.

Reindeer Run on a Pleasant December Morning

FRIDAY: As of early this Sunday morning, the next front to impact all of the state is slated for Friday into Saturday. The latest GFS shows that it could be warmer at sunrise Friday morning south of I-4 (Central Florida) than it will be during peak heating hours Friday afternoon with Fropa in the mid-morning hours. Granted, timing will be an issue and will surely change in the next several days.  

Could end up being very cool next Saturday, but again, update will follow as this is a newly emerging portrayal for next weekend that was not showing up even only yesterday (at least not as cool as shown with highs on...

...SATURDAY: ...barely if even making it to 70F. ..if even 60F (!?) and very breezy from the north. Not long lived though as by SUNDAY morning winds begin to swing easterly and decrease with slow air-mass modification already in full-swing with highs remaining only in the mid-60Fs. Will see if the GFS holds on to the 'shift' in future runs. So far, this weekend looks like everything next weekend will not be.

Saturday Morning , Cape Canaveral

Warmer Saturday - Monday: Chance of Showers Today/Sunday Night

"A Man and His Heron"

TODAY: Considerable cloudiness but with some potentially decent breaks (mainly South Florida and North Florida). Jet stream cirrus that was across South Florida is lifting north to across South Central at this time (6AM) and could potentially lift as far north as the Titusville area. Otherwise, the NAM model and now to some degree the RAP short term model are showing sufficient surface based instability for showers and even some thunder (?). Might be over-kill, but best chance if so would likely be from near West Palm Beach and south. Cloud cover could also prevent any 'convective-like' build ups.  The NAM is focused with the rain chances from near Sebastian south to toward West Palm, while the GFS has the focus more to off the coast of Brevard. The short term RAP model shows 'light' showers almost anywhere within the 'green area' shown in the image below.

Meanwhile, weak low pressure expected to form near the far NW Bahamas generally east of West Palm is to lift off to the north and east during the next 36 hours. The net affect by tomorrow could be more northerly wind but continued light with a less chance of any shower activity (it would seem). Overall, the benign pattern continues into Friday.

WEEKEND: Wind becomes more easterly to eventually southeast and even Southwest going into the Sunday/Monday time frame as a frontal boundary approaches.  Wind speeds pick up also to the 15 -20mph range on Sunday/Monday. Warmer this weekend, especially on Sunday and then again on Monday. Little activity is expected with the front itself though could see some showers Sunday night/early Monday.

TUESDAY-BEYOND: Cool down behind front similar to past few days (if even). Overall, continued near to above normal temperatures through next week and generally dry other than as described above.

Seasonally Benign Through Wednesday - "Dank Day" Today?

Sunday Morning

TODAY: Inverted trough has formed off the east coast as expected, only a bit further east than expected. The net effect per surface observations across the state is northerly to even NNW-NW winds in many locations. Meanwhile, high pressure is building east and north from the SW Gulf of Mexico toward Southern Georgia. 

The question today will be, how long will these conditions persist after mid-morning ? Conditions typical to this morning at this time of year have been known in the past to persist well beyond what would be considered 'good behavior' - meaning, all day as opposed to only for the morning hours;   therefore, wouldn't be surprised IF the conditions remained rather 'dank' especially from near eastern portions of Central Brevard County (north of Patrick AFB) all the way north toward JAX much of the day which would mean afternoon highs might never really rise much out of the upper 60Fs (especially Volusia and Flagler and north, perhaps even north of Cocoa Beach).

KSC area profilers are showing that the northerly winds are but very shallow in depth being overrun with lighter SW winds less than 3000 ft above the ground. This kind of 'mixing' could tend to be self-perpetuating in regard to cloud cover - after sunrise meaning flat out - 'tough call ' today on the cloud cover. 

Even a break of full sun could only serve to fuel more cloudy cover just an hour later.

Image showing Northerly wind below 3200 ft and SW wind above

Otherwise, areas well inland and south might warm efficiently though there is cloud cover South Florida and persist rainfall over the Keys (which has totaled  up to nearly 10 inches since Thursday and  where it is still raining in some locations this morning).

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY: Both mornings look similar with the warmest location to be from near Canaveral and south along A1A through the Keys with a very sharp temperature gradient between barrier island locations toward I95 and more so to western side of Orlando south toward Punta Gorda and north and along I-4.  

Even 'if" the "dank day early winter syndrome' persists today (especially near the coast) the upside is.... "little change over night for those same locations " in regard to temperature. 

Where the temperature might only fall a few degrees at the coast if the clouds do indeed persist today and even if they do not , inland locations will fall much more as weak low pressure from the offshore trough moves away and the broad high pressure area mentioned earlier slides east and north of the state ushering in cooler air southward from the continental land mass to the north.

Lows in the mid  50Fs along to west of  I-95 and even cooler toward the west side of the MCO area (for example) while the immediate coast remains in the 60Fs south of the Cape. Afternoon highs seasonably in the lower 70Fs 

(*** assuming this pattern does not over-extend itself into Tuesday)

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: The high pressure area is quite large as it works north and joins with the geographically induced Appalachian Ridge axis as it moves east and eventually flattens out over Friday into Saturday. Winds will become NE to eventually easterly to even Southeast. The bigger warming trend notable looks to be either Thursday or Friday where upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs return to most areas (if not sooner parts of South Central and South Florida).

RAIN CHANCES: The only true chances of rainfall (measurable) to show up in guidance occurs from Vero or Ft. Pierce and south this week - otherwise, most areas outside of a 'misty condition' should remain dry until at least Saturday. No 'cold' air is still yet shown for the state until the 18th - 21st time frame - well beyond guidance reliability.

Very Breezy this Weekend: Cooler Next Week (but not cold)

TODAY: Frontal boundary crossed Central Florida shortly after 7AM this morning - will wash out down south of Lake Okeechobee. At only 2000 ft AGL (Above Ground Level) the boundary is further north into parts of South Central Florida. The 5000 ft level trough has never even reached Central Florida and might never do so. The morning GFS model shows whatever is left of the 850mb trough will never make it much further south than I4 later tomorrow. What that means is no real pronounced drying out in the state except mainly nearer I-10 toward I4.

Chance of sprinkles as far north as Canaveral later today though for the most part during the weekend other than maybe a brief interval here or there, the better rain chances will be closer to a Vero Beach to Sarasota line and south through the Keys all through Friday as well.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: After the 850 mb trough passes to the north of the state tomorrow high pressure at that level will build east behind it to the north of Florida. In doing so the pressure gradient will increase as will the surface winds beginning sometime late Friday into Friday night. Saturday into the first half of Sunday (at least) could be breezy with gusts over 30 mph at times. Better rain chances though will remain mainly across the Southern 1/3 of the state, at least per the morning model guidance. That means that in general this weekend is not looking all too great for the east coast beaches but temperatures will be at least a bit cooler than say for example, Wednesday , where highs got into the 80Fs.  Temperatures will mainly be in the mid 60Fs to mid-70Fs range with ample cloud cover and rain chances...along with being very breezy.

MONDAY; A surface low is expected to form very close to if not on the peninsula. The GFS implies it would form along an inverted EastCoast coastal trough which is forecast to form overnight Sunday night into early Monday. By Monday morning the winds will have diminished drastically (at least as it stands today). 

 Chance of showers near the east coast Sunday night into early Monday. As a weak surface low forms nearby and strengthens as it moves away NNW winds could circulate much drier and cooler air across the state from particularly Tuesday through the remainder of the week. 

No cold weather is foreseen, though lows inland could be in the mid 50Fs range with highs in the upper 60Fs to mid70Fs being common into Friday.

Possible "Active" Weather Pattern Could Evolve Thursday - Tuesday

MONDAY:  "Flock of Seagulls"
November 30th, 2015 Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY - WEDNESDAY: Warm and 'muggy' for November as the general 'warm streak' continues. Weather Service Offices across Central have noted the past Meteorological Fall Season (September - November) is in the Top Five for overall warmth this year , and this thread will continue into Wednesday. 

Though some ocean showers are possible any time the better rain chance begins Thursday as a frontal boundary cuts across Central and gets strung out across South Florida. This will be a very shallow boundary though with no true cold air behind it though temperatures will held off by increasing cloud cover after Wednesday.

THURSDAY:

 ***NOTE*** From this point on the 'blog' covers mostly a 'worst case' scenario type situation(s) as it stands this morning. Guidance is not in agreement to timing and location of future pressure centers and even within the GFS the character of upcoming days has varied vastly across the previous runs of the past two days.

Chance of rain late Wednesday Central and on Thursday after frontal associated rain that could occur late Wednesday. It is the post frontal scenario south of I-4 that will be the issue in regard to how far north the rains will occur  . So far, the GFS has been drawing a line from near Canaveral to Tampa and south, though at times even further south with the rain chances for Thursday and Friday with the model teasing the Dead Central line too often not to mention (and to South Florida especially).

FRIDAY: Continued partly cloudy to cloudy with easterly wind increasing as high pressure passes to the north of Florida and strengthens. How strong this high pressure center becomes will be the chief factor concerning Saturday and Sunday in regard to onshore east coast winds because if it strengthens as much as the last model run showed (and a few other runs as well a few days ago), then .........

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Chance of very windy conditions with rain showers. Wind gusts in rain showers if the GFS of 7AM this morning were to verify could be toward 45 mph? Huh?! Cold air aloft with strong pressure gradient..might even mean stronger winds than that near the east coast in rain storms..time will tell so if planning beach activities this weekend stay tuned to latest media sources.

The GFS showed winds as shown below at 2000 ft. beginning very early Saturday into Sunday accompanied by rain storms.

GFS 2000 Ft. Wind Forecast shows 30-40kts which could translate to
 higher ground level wind gusts in rain storms with cold air aloft
with gusts in the 32 - 45 mph range - purely speculation at this point

SUNDAY- MONDAY: Meanwhile, low pressure might well form ahead of the next approaching upper level trough approaching the Deep South States but still to the WNW of Florida. The GFS implies this upper level 500mb trough will take a negative tilt with a surface low pressure forming near the base over the north-central Gulf of Mexico in the presence of strong divergent jet stream winds aloft along the left exit region of the Southern Branch 300mb jet. If so, the low is then forecast to shift ENE to NE into Monday-Tuesday time frame across Florida as shown below.

If so, that could mean   there will be a decrease in surface winds on Monday and a break in any rain potential (but not entirely)...with another bout of fast moving (possibly severe) weather   in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. 

Additional model runs will be necessary for continuity in this very actively portrayed series of days as of this morning. 

Previous model runs have been hinting at a rather active patter anyway..but just exactly how these days  will evolve is surely going to vary in days to come with each model run - if , in fact, it will be active at all.

 -  Future posts will reflect any evolving or devolving issues - but will hold off for two days to watch the next 8 series of GFS model runs before running another blog update  -

FORECAST by the GFS model for Monday afternoon

**** NOTE: subject to change
in subsequent model runs ****

Increasing On-Shore Wind (East Coast) - Cloud Cover - Irregular High TIdes

"Irregular" High Tides - November 2013 (Before Beach Refurbishment)

TODAY- WEDNESDAY: Post frontal air mass modification quickly in motion as high pressure center moves from the Deep South toward the Carolina Coast into Wednesday eventually to near Nova Scotia by Friday.  On-shore east coast NE wind could well increase later today through Wednesday as the 2000 ft level winds are forecast to increase to 30kts (32 mph) later today. Some of that wind could work to the surface near to after peak heating resulting in gusts to near 34mph  today or simply increase the cloud cover.

As expected there is a broad temperature spread from east coast to west coast. The warmest temperatures were found near the immediate coast from the Cape and South. Patrick AFB in Cocoa Beach was warmer than the observing station in Miami which is located further from the ocean. 

As previously highlighted, the 'typical' warm spot in the Contingent U.S. in the winter (in the morning) outside of strong cold front passages is oft from Cape Canaveral and south along the A1A strip to Key West in the presence of nearly any onshore flow no matter what the strength of it.

This afternoon temperatures should not climb all that much especially near the east coast if the cloud deck increases due to the lower sun angle this time of year  combined with the placement of the aforementioned high pressure center -  highs eking into the lower 70Fs or upper 60Fs (cooler north of I-4).

Some sample temperatures at 5 AM were:

Crestview: 30F
Tallahassee:  41F
Jacksonville: 43F
Orlando International: 53F
Okeechobee: 52F
Ocala: 46F
Patrick AFB - Ft Pierce: 68F -69F  ****
Tampa Area: 52F
Punta Gorda: 52F
Ft Myers: 55F
Key West: 69F  *****
Miami: 63F
West Palm: 70F

Infrared Satellite Image Reveals During Overnight Hours the Extent of Clouds
Looming off the Florida East Coast

WEDNESDAY-THANKSGIVING: Wind will remain gusty at times with steady onshore flow continuing. Full Moon is Wednesday into Early Thursday. Seasonal and astronomical High tides run quite high in combination as noted from the headline image from two years ago in the Fall. This event was followed by prolific sea weed coverage as well. 

Chance of sprinkles could begin late today into tonight but little more than that, if even. By Wednesday and more so Thursday chance of measurable amounts could occur though it will be very spotty and most areas will not see the showers. No one location appears will be completely immune from the rain chances though except the panhandle region.

Sunrise temperatures both days near 70F east coast and cooler inland. Afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70Fs contingent upon cloud coverage.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Though wind for a time might even back more toward the NNE eventually they will become straight east into the weekend  most notably  into Monday morning. Warmer temperatures fully along the lines of round the clock 70Fs to lower 80Fs begins by Saturday and/or Sunday most areas but will have already begun along the east coast on Wednesday morning. 

The next frontal passage is anticipated to be weak and of less temperature influence than the previous front, with guidance implying the next heavy rain/storm chance to be a full week after Thanksgiving. 

'Warm' again the first few days of next week !!

Potential For 'Good' Rainfall Accumulations North Central Through Early Sunday - Much Cooler Monday

Disney Mystery Cruise - Late Afternoon,  November 2014

TODAY: Little change from previous post along with the continued disagreements between the NAM and GFS model runs. The NAM has upper level "voriticity' fields crossing the state mainly later today into this evening from the Central Gulf across mainly South Central Florida while the GFS holds off until tonight through early Sunday further north to North Central. Thus, timing and the location of any better rainfall totals is in debate. Regardless, cloudy skies are in the offing with an increased rain chance. 

Will continue to ride with the GFS model as latest satellite imagery does not appear to pair well with where the NAM is showing the energy to already be located. On the other hand, GFS output shows that its energy fields have yet to even truly evolve(not until at least later today toward the southern tip of Louisiana) - big difference.

The GFS and NAM and even the short term RAP all imply a warm front like boundary lifting north toward Central Florida by the noon time frame which might act as a convergence boundary catalyst to initiate some showers and even some thunder. If so, the boundary could lift as far north as I-4 if not even toward I10. Where that boundary ends up and wavers/halts will likely be the region to experience any potentially heavier rainfall totals. 

Will ride with 'winter climatology' and assume it might make it to I-4. Though rainfall totals might be higher in that region to even north of the boundary, the better chance of thunder would be south of the boundary to a line running from Vero Beach west to Sarasota notwithstanding the potential for lower concentration of activity almost anywhere and/or merely denser cloud coverage.

SUNDAY: Per GFS , it coughs out the best divergence aloft along the entrance region of the upper level southern branch jet accompanied by cold air aloft in the presence of an approaching frontal boundary which is to merge with the old 'warm front' to occur in the region in 'purple' of the image above sometime between 10pm tonight through sunrise Sunday morning or a bit later toward 10AM. Wouldn't be surprised to hear at least some 'elevated thunder' late tonight into the early morning as well given the cold air aloft.

Continued cloudy skies though as the front might temporarily stall across Central for the first half of the day before sliding into south Florida mid-late afternoon. The drier air though is still nearly a good 12 hours behind over North Florida.

MONDAY: Again, though the NAM and GFS differ on the location of the front itself, that is not the more important factor - and that is the arrival of drier air. 

Both concur it will arrive sometime between 5AM toward 9AM. Brisk NNW wind originally will gradually veer to North then eventually NNE.

If the NAM is correct in this regard,and climatologically it shouldn't be all that much a surprise, if some of the coolest temperatures for immediate east coaster might actually occur late afternoon Monday but this will be short lived if so. 

More than likely though, the coolest temps will be in the morning hovering at to just below the 60F mark from Cape Canaveral (but warmer south). Much cooler inland and north and south along the west half of the state toward Ft Meyers.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY : NNE winds eventually become E by Thursday. Increasing coastal stratocumulus clouds with sprinkles possible by Wednesday through Friday if not a few ground wetters but nothing beyond a few 1/100ths of an inch anticipated (compared to the potential for an inch or more this weekend in some locations).  

Cocoa Beach , Florida - Late Thanksgiving Day 2012

It still appears the warming trend will first be felt from Brevard County and south over night Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when from that time there-out temperatures will remain in the 70Fs range 24/7 but breezy up until later Friday. Choppy seas and rough surf with a tight pressure gradient only to relax as the next front approaches late weekend.

Frontal Assault en' Force Monday Central/North Florida through Tuesday

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 20th SUNRISE - Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY: Frontal boundary has proceeded into the lower South Florida and loses most of it's surface based identity. Another front will be approaching over the weekend. Above the surface the front will 're-emerge' mostly about 2000ft AGL though could work to the surface. Model guidance between the NAM and GFS varies VASTLY on when any rain could or might fall this weekend (as a fore-warning) - though the two come very close to agreeing as to when the secondary front will sever our ties with any simulations of 'summer like' temperatures for quite some time to come in the long term even.

Otherwise, better rain chances appear to be over South Florida today - though a shower or sprinkle could occur almost anywhere south of I-4 , it just looks fairly unlikely - at least until at least late day.

SATURDAY: Herein enters guidance disagreement. The bulk of any rain that could fall this weekend is advertised by the NAM to occur overnight late tonight to the first parts of Saturday. The GFS contends the better rain chances will be late Saturday into at least the first half of Sunday. For continuity will run with the GFS with better rain chances being overnight Saturday into the first half of Sunday (though could end much sooner) or linger for a time south of I-4 into early afternoon. Either way partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies looks to be in the offing for Saturday and SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: Secondary front to proceed down the state from North to South making headway across 'Central exact' between 4AM -6AM with 'sig. drying' of the air-mass in toe. (see below image from the GFS 7AM Model Run)

NNW to North wind at first eventually becomes North to NNE later in the day. Cold air advection in process all day - though the overall air mass isn't 'especially ' cold (could be much worse this time of year). The areas north of I-4 and especially up toward I-10 will feel the brunt of this front - with temperatures dropping right up to if not even after sunrise even as far south as South Florida Monday morning. 

Highs might only reach the mid-upper 60Fs but if any cloud decks form near the east coast especially near the Cape area they might only see lower 60Fs with NNE wind around 15G26 mph. 50Fs will be realized further inland many areas and even 40Fs further north (if not cooler if the NAM verifies) in the mornings. I'm seeing the official forecasts for afternoon highs on Monday and wondering if they aren't a little too warm, so riding on highs closer to 63F - 67F range many areas north of a Vero Beach to Sarasota line.

TUESDAY: Continued cool as well with overnight lows not really dropping much at all along the east coast south of the Cape (remaining in the lower 60Fs range). Temperatures on Tuesday might not recover all the much from the previous day but chances are it will be a few degrees warmer.

WEDNESDAY: ... On the other hand, recovery will begin full swing to 'warmer and less dry' overnight Tuesday night such that Wednesday morning along the east coast might dawn warmer then sunset the night before will have been.   Highs returning to seasonal norms for several days..but also with increasing coastal stratocumulus clouds decks likely working well inland accompanied by the ever-present potential for a sprinkle or even a " ground wetting short briefed rain"  smattered here or there.

THANKSGIVING: Typical fall like weather with easterly wind, partly to at times cloudy skies and perhaps a sprinkle if not even measurable rain fall in spotty locations but any accumulations  should be less than 1/10th of an inch.

Rain Chances Into Early Sunday - "Breezy Cool" Monday

Wednesday Morning Rain Showers Off Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Saga of muggy and above average temperature days continues as a well defined 'air mass change' has reached the far western Panhandle. 

Well defined 'air mass change' is delineated by a frontal boundary over the Western Panhandle. Although this front will reach Central Florida by early Friday it will be greatly modified with the deeper drying and coolest air never making much head way south of (in general) the "I-4" if even that.

Little overall change in thinking from previous 'blog post guesses' .

Chance of showers and some thunder possible especially after 2pm through 7pm (Central and parts of South Florida mainly later today). Heavy showers and some thunder is already being observed over parts of North Florida even at 6AM.  Chance that some of the afternoon to early evening activity could be accompanied by periodic bursts of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Will watch for the degree of heating potential especially south of I-4 by early afternoon as some storms north of a Vero Beach to Sarasota line could verge on the 'stronger side'.

FRIDAY: Front will stretch out across the Lake Okeechobee region with easterly flow returning. Deepest moisture initially will be over the southern 3rd of the state but this still appears to be rather short lived. Even a small rain chance could remain for a part of Brevard near the East coast but it currently appears the better rain chances will be further south as noted in the previous post. Not much change in temperatures from those of recent days - but at least it will be less breezy at the immediate east coast (e.g. - wind gusts this Thursday morning at Patrick AFB - Cocoa Beach - are higher then 25mph while some inland locations are observing 'calm' winds).

SATURDAY: Model guidance differs on what happens going into early Saturday. The latest NAM s similar to the old GFS run at the time   the previous blog post was made  - implying the front lifting back north and some southerly flow returning. The GFS now though merely leaves a light easterly flow- but either way..deeper moisture works back north. If the NAM is correct would need to re-introduce thunder chances from I-4 and south on Saturday which will guess would be the better of two 'bets'.

SUNDAY: Due to model guidance differences - the degree of rainfall coverage is also highly varied; however, for now would say rain chances remain on Sunday for Central (south of I-4) into only early  morning with partial clearing by later morning if not a bit sooner. Wind from the NNW-N and beginning to get breezy though the  more windy conditions await for overnight Sunday Night - Monday - Tuesday.

Wednesday Morning early on - Breezy Morning with temperature in mid 70Fs

MONDAY; Very Breezy and quite cool by this season's standards! Highs might only reach the mid-upper 60Fs with winds in the 20 mph gusting toward 30 mph (especially along the east coast)- with lower-mid 70Fs restricted to South Florida. 

Will have to wait for a few more model runs to see if that temperature profile will remain - but the GFS has been holding steadfast on a very cool and breezy day but worth noting:

"The Warmest Spot in the Entire Country Monday morning it appears will be along the Florida East Coast from the Cape South toward far South Florida" ....

....... with even Ft Myers areas (for example) being colder than locations right at the beaches from Canaveral and South (which is normal for the late fall and winter season and has be reiterated several times in blog posts (last year and the years before).

BEYOND - THANKSGIVING: Air mass modification ensues full swing by Wednesday morning with easterly flow returning and and less 'windy'. Chance of cloud cover and possibly even some rain showers - however - for now will leave it at mainly cloudy cover from off the ocean until there is more model consistency. Yet another front will be on the approach a few days out.

WILL IT GET COLD THIS MONTH?!: GFS has been implying a taste of 'winter' for several runs in the November 30th - December 3rd time frame - but as usual- this is too far out in time for accuracy - but even the implication of it and seeing those colder temperatures in the 40Fs and even some upper 30Fs working into Central Florida has one reaching for the stocked up soup supply - might consider sdusitng off the cold weather gear  sometime soon.

Increasing Rain Chances into Saturday, Breezy and Cooler Sunday Onward

On This Day , November 17th - 2014

TODAY:  Brisk easterly flow and warm temperatures for this time of year to continue even into Saturday. Frontal boundary (second of two) to approach for passage late Saturday into early Sunday. 

As high pressure to the north moves off the east coast of the U.S. north of Florida the pressure gradient will remain fairly tight if not tighten more so , meaning winds will become more southerly with time going into Friday. Mostly dry today but north of Ft Pierce  there is a chance of a renegade sprinkle as far north as the Cape late today from around 3PM onward until after dark  but most areas will remain rain free.

WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY: As wind becomes a bit more southerly a slight increase in rain chances from Vero north toward Daytona very early Wednesday through early afternoon. Warmer overnight especially near the east coast and inland during the day. Wind will remain brisk and maybe increase a bit moreso.

On Thursday the front might slide into Central by early evening. Chance of Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Will watch for even a strong storm from I-10 south to North Brevard County by late afternoon or early evening, especially near the east coast from I-95 and eastward. Guidance has lately be focusing on some heavier rainfall totals from Volusia and north..and maybe as far south as nearly all parts of Brevard county as well depending on the model and the model run.

FRIDAY: Front to work toward Lake Okeechobee with almost no real discernible temperature changes especially near the east coast as winds immediately swing to onshore as noted in like manner as the past few days. 

Another front approaches however which will again swing winds around to the south but they will be much lighter than recent days. Meanwhile..the broad diffuse boundary will remain over South Central and South..which will mean rain chances for those areas on Friday as well, not so much north of a Sarasota to MLB line for the most part.

SATURDAY: Next front in the series to merge with the old remaining boundary which could spell out increased cloud cover and another chance of wider spread rain chances as it lifts back north again to at least Central if not further north (the jury is still out on how far north it will permitted to retreat before the next front moves in) , though thunder might be less likely due to increased cloud coverage.

SUNDAY: Front will be pressing south from Central to out of the state and even clearing Cuba during the first half of the day through nightfall. Breezy onshore NE winds will commence possibly overnight Sunday into Monday.

SUNDAY-THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Much cooler round the clocks, especially away from the coast from the Cape and South. Lows in many areas in the mid-upper 50Fs to lower 60Fs..but mid-upper 60Fs at the beaches from Cape Canaveral and South and further inland the further south one goes toward Lake Okeechobee. 

By Thursday  (of next week which is Thanksgiving Day) more direct onshore flow will begin to equalize temperatures out most areas (Thanksgiving) but also increase a small chance of coastal sprinkles and/or cloud coverage from stratocumulus cloud decks.

NOTE: Last year the first cold spell was November 1st when Canaveral saw 47F on the beach. The coolest at this location so far this year has been 66F.

November 1st Last Year - 2014

Last Gasp Chance of Shower or Thunder (Central) Today - Cooler/Breezy Weekend

Last Year on the Day before Thanksgiving

TODAY: Frontal boundary to inch through Central Florida and wash out across South Central into tomorrow. Meanwhile , close proximity of the boundary across East Central down to SW Florida could result in showers and perhaps some thunder from Brevard County (mainly) and South toward the Interior regions to east side of South Central/South Florida into early evening. (more likely it seems over South Florida)

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: A secondary boundary will approach on Friday. A brief warm up in prelude could occur on Thursday with a taste of recent days in the thermal realm....but any rain chances ahead of that boundary so far appear to be restricted to South Florida.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY: Next front should be on Central's Florida's doorstop within two hours either side of sunrise. To follow is a North to North-northeast wind surge resulting in dry and cooler air. Coolest mornings will be away from the coast (warmest ones south of The Cape along the east coast down through the keys), but in general over the weekend we'll be seeing red at nearly 10F degrees cooler   both  mornings and afternoons with temperatures running through the 60Fs and 70Fs but a bit breezy as well.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wind becomes progressively more easterly as high pressure center passes to the north as temperatures moderate quickly by Tuesday..70Fs round the clock along the east coast returns with slightly moistening of the air mass and some periodic coastal cloud episodes.

FURTHER BEYOND: The question of the future is a broad as the sky is blue. One model run of the GFS showed a near tornadic type episode in about 10 days..the next run showed very cold for this time of year for the same time frame, and the latest GFS shows nothing significant at all but continued easterly wind flow and moderately pleasant temperatures.

Better Chance of Showers/Thunder On Wednesday - Light Winds Next Week

Distant Ocean Storm Earlier in Month

TODAY: Considerable cloudiness and breezy especially along the east coast as winds slowly veer to the east through southeast and eventually south and decrease after nightfall. Chance of sprinkles in some locations and even some small measurable amounts here and there but in general an early fall onshore flow type scenario typical of this time of year is fully at hand.

WEDNESDAY: Overnight wind will become south and eventually southwest before sunrise and pick up a bit. This means Wednesday will be the first day in quite a while we will have lost an east coast onshore flow. Finally! *but not for long. 

Cloud cover will be an issue perhaps at least earlier but the GFS model is continually implying sufficient CAPE (destabilization of the atmosphere) for at least showers to form beyond sprinkle category. There is even a chance of thunder toward the east coast mainly south of I-4 and nearer toward I-95 and east thereof , south toward West Palm Beach though a few thunders might he heard elsewhere south of I-10 though very remote if at all. The main highlight for Wednesday is the better chance of some organized convective type rainfall with some 'thunder aloft' possible (mainly) but would be worth watching for more than that if we have an sufficient clearing..considering winds aloft will be rather strong.

Green shows best chance of a shower today / or tomorrow.
 Orange is for possible thunder on Wednesday after 2pm through sunset

THURSDAY-BEYOND: Weak frontal boundary will drop south across the remainder of the state into Thursday and rapidly be bridged across by High pressure's clockwise circulation passing along the north Gulf and the South east states. Wind starts out light from the north in the mornings by Friday -Saturday so mornings will be a bit cooler but eventually becomes flat out on shore by Sunday/Monday time frame and remains so for at least a week . This will be a drier flow with only some clouds with mild-warm temperatures remaining for quite some time to come. Starting out still quite warm with highs in the lower-mid 80s most locations. 

 Lows in the lower to mid-70Fs (esp. at the beaches) and highs in the lower to mid 80Fs going into next week for the locations away from the direct influence of the onshore flow. Some mid-upper 60Fs restricted to mainly locations away from the coast.

Chance of Showers and Some Thunder Into Mid-Next Week

Sunset Thursday Evening in Cape Canaveral

TODAY: There does exist a chance of thundershowers later today mainly over the interior-late. Other sparsely spread rain showers are also possible (the dominant mode of rain today). Some light rain or cloud cover could approach the immediate east coast mainly south of I-4 toward Sebastian Inlet late today into early this evening - with perhaps a patch of light rain in tow as well.

TOMORROW -SUNDAY: So far atmospheric moisture appears will be oscillating around between a PWAT (Precipitable water) value of 1.75 - 2.1" up through the first parts of next week. Rain shower and thunder chances remain - but thunder is already becoming harder to come by as we have already crossed the Fall Threshold of Celestial Summer and days grow minutely shorter day by day -regardless, it only takes a fraction to make the shift between thunder to 'mere' rain-shower apart from additional atmospheric help..none of which is foreseen in the short term through the weekend. 

Afternoons this weekend will mostly be in the mid-upper 80Fs with a few interior lower 90Fs possible with partly cloudy skies until late day - though overnight to early morning showers are always possible near mainly the east coast. Best rain chances for daylight hours will be inland except perhaps east coast late in the day.

NEXT WEEK: Front might wiggle worm it's way through in a bit of back-door fashion heading toward Thursday with an immediate onshore wind flow to follow. This would mean an overall temperature fall of a few degrees 24/7 but nothing overly 'astounding' by any means. Just that slight tap down on the thermostat , at least for a few days.