Storms Possible: Coolest Yet Monday - Wednesday - but Then?

Dramatized Sky As Previous Cold Front was Clearing Central Florida at Sunrise

TODAY: Frontal boundary to cross all of Florida on Sunday morning through early evening. Well ahead of that boundary (today) is when the most 'weather' will occur (or possibly so) in association with this system. 

Early morning cloud cover, fog, and overall atmospheric malaise will begin to break up slowly but surely with temperatures warming through the 70Fs and possibly into the lower 80Fs (South Florida) though high clouds might well p ut limitations on that  as will the limitations from how long the morning conditions persist. The sooner things break up, the more warm we can get.

Latest guidance shows the better chances for truly active weather will remain mainly over the warmer waters of the Gulf around the Loop Current and the Gulf Stream though chance that some activity might make it to the actual peninsula along the Western Panhandle does exist as well as from around Tampa Bay and south (in a weakened state). Better chances of rain if any though enter in for Central and South Florida mainly toward and after dark into early morning Sunday as the actual front moves in. Some thunder is possible though (aloft) across Central per the HRRR short-range guidance, but  seems questionable.

Early Morning Satellite Image shows High Clouds passing over head from west to east.
Chance of showers somewhere between later today to sunrise Sunday north of the Green Line across South Florida.
Thunder better chances alone west coast.

SUNDAY: Frontal passage across Central shortly after noon-time with the atmosphere slowly but surely drying out toward sunset. The driest air moves in after dark (south of I-4) coupled with lowering mercury on NW wind around 15-20 mph at times for a while. 

Before dark, temperatures remain very comfortable; in the lower 70Fs.

MONDAY: Perhaps the coldest morning yet this season (since October) for east coasters with lows toward the 50F mark; somewhere between 48F - 52F. Highs, near 60F.

TUESDAY: Problems already enter the picture in the form of cloud cover speculations. Some guidance is showing a secondary wave passing across South Florida with rain chances there and cloudy skies Central. Morning lows similar to Monday if not colder. Inland lows in mid-upper 40Fs but closer to the 49 -52F zone Cape Canaveral and south east of I-95 (and warmer further south)  but if cloud cover moves in before the afternoon does we could remain 'chilly' with highs never breaking the mid 50Fs; for even only upper 50Fs yet still has been a consensus regardless. 

Wind will be light though into Wednesday morning.

WEDNESDAY: For some areas this might be the 'surprise' coldest day away from the coast if classic 'drainage flow' sets up in the absence of winds combined with absence of clouds. Wednesday also will be quite cool with highs perhaps in the lower 60Fs in general? (cooler north and warmer South as always).

THURSDAY: At time could also start out very cool but warm up eventually seems to be in the cards. Again though, there are times when any cloud cover, even a thin veil of high cirrus cloud which might go by nearly unnoticed by the unobservant (which is many) could affect the afternoon high temperatures, especially with the continued lower sun angle this time of year.

Stepping into late week...cautiously...

BEYOND: Speculation and eye of caution for the time being. Severe weather potential does exist for Central and South Florida with high bulk and directional shear aloft coupled with strong vorticity pattern expected to emerge from Northern Mexico and to move across the Gulf. That disturbance in fact will already be in the makings days before while the state is still under those chilly conditions described earlier. 

However, as has been the case time after time so far this 'season'..beyond 3 days guidance has had a very difficult time extrapolating into future outcomes both in place, timing and intensity of short-wave disturbances rippling by due to the progressive nature of them within the Southern Stream Jet and it's effects as it  (and the lower winds beneath it) cross the mountains of Mexico and/or combine with the warmer waters of the Gulf Loop Current.

IN SUMMARY BEYOND SUNDAY: Much cooler early to mid week and a chance of declining conditions heading toward the weekend.

"20 Degrees (Fahrenheit) of Separation"

WINTRY SUNRISE TO START THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF 2016

TODAY/MONDAY: Cool start to the day warming into the 60Fs range (cooler North Florida) with NW winds with cleared out sky as the sun rose going into mid-morning as was anticipated to occur in Saturday's post. Temperature and skies are running on schedule.  Temperatures this morning were up to 20F degrees colder than last week and afternoon highs in some places will run nearly just about as cool as well. So much for record breaking warmth for quite some time to come. Temperatures are now running just a bit 'below' norms for a change.

OVERNIGHT-TUESDAY: Wind to become more northerly to just off northerly toward NNE (north-northeast) at ground and just above the deck. Temperature at 2000 ft will be very cold which should aid in getting the coastal stratocumulus cloud deck blanket going with possible sprinkles as well especially late morning toward early afternoon. Wind increasing toward the 20 mph range with gusts toward 25mph at time.  

TUESDAY LATE-WEDNESDAY: Increasing moisture as low pressure begins to form toward the western Bahamas. Guidance is spread far and wide on how strong the low pressure area will get which actually makes a big difference in the forecast for Central Florida (not so much South Florida).  

Either way...chance of showers with measurable rainfall will begin to emerge mid-day Wednesday and increase toward late day and into the evening. This will be a short-range event though to clear out going into Thursday as 'whatever forms' near the Bahamas swiftly departs. South Florida will be the beneficiary of the rainfall from that quick system.

Continued on the cool side Tuesday dues to increasing cloud cover (and depth) through the 5000 ft level will allow little but filtered sunlight at least per the GFS and NAM models. It might feel even cooler than today in coastal locations due to lack of direct sunlight and strong wind (with possible wetting as well later in the day) 

Meanwhile, temperatures will be on the moderation scheme overnight though..with morning lows by Wednesday almost as warm as today's high temperature (for those close to the coast).  But rain chances Wednesday due increase, especially for South Florida and coastal Central as noted above. 

 

WEDNESDAY: This day seems to have a better rain chance, especially South Florida but also to the North toward East Central going into later in the day and the overnight hours. Temperatures running in the mid-upper 60Fs into the overnight.

THURSDAY: Lighter easterly wind, partly cloudy, maybe a shower but we'll be in - between weather systems so rather an uneventful day weather-wise (so far at least) as low pressure of whatever strength moves north and east away from Florida and the pressure gradient begins to decrease.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Much divergence (continues) across models runs and between varying models on what comes with the next upper level impulse to be tracking across Southern Texas and nearly tracing the Gulf coast states ocean front.  

How strong the next 'low' will be from the West (if there is one) and it's location as well as the timing are all up for grabs so won't bother wasting too much time speaking of what will occur over the weekend other than to say at this point Sunday seems to be the day with the best chances of rain. 

No 'overly-warm' temperatures are foreseen but the colder mornings will, by Thursday, have fully seen their demise.  

No One is Renting ..Let alone Buying It This Morning

Beyond the next system's passage no cold air is to follow, as least nothing cooler than it as this morning.

Next chance of 'cold' weather is around the January 13th Time Frame which is long range and also unreliable.

 Previous model run showed no such chance of another cold spell for quite some time - but noting - in the forecasts beyond 8 days the GFS varies sometimes from run to run as broad as the sea is deep from near severe, to much colder, to even much warmer. Whatever.

Not As Wet as Feared; Much Cooler Through Tuesday

New Year's Day Morning in Cocoa Beach, Florida

TODAY : Cold frontal boundary sinking across South Florida with cloud cover increasing well behind it due to over-running. Cloud cover should increase across most parts of Central Florida earlier in the day with little change throughout - but mainly remain dry and much cooler with highs struggling to reach much above 60F north of I-4 and remaining in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs most other parts but South Central and South Florida. Light wind.

Pre-Sunrise Cloud cover in the mid-levels mainly north of the black line will sink south today as conditions to induce the same will work in from the west with increasing 'over-running'

SUNDAY: Upper level disturbance will cross the state on Sunday and exit off to the east early Monday. Guidance varies on when and how much rain will fall - but the more noteworthy trend is that rainfall totals have been going down and the period of rainfall decreasing. Rains could begin over parts of far North Central early Sunday before sunrise and work into Central by early afternoon (or much sooner) .  What guidance is showing as rainfall might be but dense low level cloud cover with very light rain. Hard to say for sure, but overall Sunday would not be much a day for planning outdoor activities it now appears. Continued quite cool on this day, perhaps cooler than today .

MONDAY: System exits east and much drier air enters the picture. This is, again, a  newly evolving depiction that is much improved from previous model runs. So dry, we might see clear skies and 'crisp' like air - with highs in the lower 60Fs if not upper 50Fs I-4 and north.  With breezy northerly wind.  

Some Florida Winter Mornings are Colorful

TUESDAY: Wind  swings around to northeast and as anyone who has been along the East coast of Florida for very long knows, onshore flow means moderating air mass (warmer air and moisture) in the late fall through early spring months. Chance of low stratocumulus decks nearer the coast and maybe a very light sprinkle on the wind shield . 

Breezy, breezy ...winds gusting perhaps over 25 mph but still a bit cool with temperatures in the mid-upper 60Fs (depending on cloud cover).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Warm up ensues as wind becomes east then more southeast into Thursday with highs in the mid-upper 70Fs . GFS shows chances of rain Thursday (mainly overnight) with the system exiting followed by warm westerly winds on an even warmer Friday. 

Suspect the Thursday/Friday forecast will shift around quite a bit though as that time approaches. Regardless, that system does not appear to have much in the temperature impact category if any. Severe 'potential' could possibly be in the cards for this system as well - mainly Central and North - but that too is extremely sketchy and suspect that potential will diminish in future forecasts. 

2016 To Start Out Too Cool and Too Wet

Front Row Seats For Sunrise Observances in Cocoa Beach 

DECEMBER 31ST - JANUARY 1 2016: Not much discernible change from the weather pattern of late for New Year's Eve. The "Omega Block" like pattern forecast to set up is in process but the impression is, it won't last long. Some potent storm systems will be  breaking the 'log jamming' over the U.S West Coast this upcoming week to put an end to the Block in quick fashion, but for Florida this will still mean a lot of up and down weather and difficult to forecast very well beyond even the mid-range .

 Per forecast discussions from NWS Offices agreement is that the first 'big change' will be with a cold frontal passage New Year's Day night well after dark from Central to South Florida. Southeast Florida almost escapes the much cooler air entirely   but folks Central and North will see a significant difference come Sunday where little rise in temperatures out of the 50Fs will occur. That is a far cry from highs inland in the mid-upper 80Fs that have been being observed.

Depiction of Front Position across Florida New Year's Day Afternoon
with first system approaching (Near the Baja)

SUNDAY: Lows in the mid 50Fs with increasing cloud cover. Rains are forecast to increase in earnest by noon time and then really make an 'impact' from early afternoon toward midnight into very early Monday. Remaining cloud cover with lighter rain near the coast should end by afternoon if not sooner and a little warmer.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Improving conditions but could get quite breezy while yet another system is on the approach for WEDNESDAY. 

WEDNESDAY:  This system 'might' pack even more of a rainfall punch than from the previous system.

The GFS is showing between the two systems rainfall could be as much as 6" or more inches....questionable , yes. Yet, we might be able to expect across Central anything from 2 - 4" between the two systems in only a 4 day period. And if more, well then can't say the Global Forecast System model didn't warn us. And it's not over yet. Another system is slated toward the Friday time frame.  Might also be able to expect some thunder with any of these forthcoming systems, so far, especially the second one coming mid-week. Heavy downpours or even strong winds from elevated potentially slightly rotating storms.

The coldest temperatures will be associated with the passage of the first system going into Tuesday morning after which onshore flow should bring moderating temperatures though it could get quite breezy to even windy somewhere going into Tuesday before the next system approaches.

NWS discussions vary on degree on rainfall as the GFS and EURO model apparently are not in full agreement.

Therefore, if receiving information from news sources might be prepared to hear varying stories about what the upcoming days have to bring from one source to the next or even from the same source from one day to the next, as models have been shifting around quite a bit from run to model run.

The 'mayhem' might continue as far as toward January 10th or 11th as yet one more system is foreseen in the days ahead beyond Wednesday. We'll just have to see how that one pans out.

Big Pattern Change To Evolve Away From Warm and Dry

Surf Fishing Tuesday Morning, Cocoa Beach, Florida

TODAY- THURSDAY: Little change of late but for some increasing moisture at times and entrance of a mention of some spotty showers as well from time to time, beginning mainly Wednesday afternoon and beyond into next week. More record warm minimums and afternoon maxes could fall yet still in almost any official reporting location.

FRIDAY: Long awaited frontal boundary eases per 'the latest' (which is subject to change) into Central Florida and holds nearly stationary there from late Friday into Tuesday of next week. Anything even close to such will resulting in much cloudier conditions accompanied by periods of some showers, and at that point the boundary looks like a given. Where it 'sets camp' might still change. 

SUNDAY: So far this appears to be 'the big rain day going into early Monday". The heavier concentration of rainfall totals has shifted a bit north from last post to now being from I-10 South to Central Direct into parts of South Central (instead of further south). 

Also, temperatures are not shown to be as cold as previously advertised! Now, low 60Fs to mid 70Fs rule the roost south of I-4 and mainly 50Fs and 60Fs from I-4 and north. But again, plenty of time to re-evaluate and temperatures not far off the surface are forecast to be pretty cold..so any continuous rainfall might result in a huge temperature forecast busts, especially for Sunday/Monday time frame - meaning, it might be much cooler than expected.

GFS shows a REX BLOCK pattern setting up  as seen below. How long such a 'block' if it evolves will last is impossible to say. 

Models almost always try to pull blocking patterns out well before they are truly ready to leave. What that will mean for Florida is little change on the larger synoptic scale but with daily variables in cloud cover and rain chances being determined by when a disturbance passes over head from the west.

REX BLOCK OUT WEST SHOWN by GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM *(GFS) Model
Envision disturbances caught up with those winds at 20,000 feet and  passing over Old Mexico, across the Gulf, and toward Florida , perhaps several times in coming days with varying results

 By definition, 'block' implies..'hard to break down'..or in regard to sensible weather, 'little change for a fairly long period of time'.  

Florida is shown to be the truly warmest location in the U.S. during this particular set up... especially south of I-4. Cloud cover might be more often than not.

The GFS has the pattern persisting probably for a good week (which would be normal)...but lifting toward the north. All in all, this would mean no Truly Cold Air as feared would be the case and was being advertised to occur over Florida in the extended by the same model just a few days ago. Will it change back though to colder air? After Day 7 at this rate, anything is possible.

Temperature forecasts look almost identical for several strings of days in row though for mornings in the mid-term..much like this one below showing lows in the lower-mid 60Fs to 70Fs far South Florida as a weak low pressure forms over the western edge of the Gulf Stream near "The Cape" :

IN SUMMARY BEYOND MONDAY: Rains so far appear should be over by Early Monday some time as things stand now...temperatures running through the lower 60Fs to mid 70Fs (colder north of I-4). ...that is...morning lows a bit 'warmer than normal' with afternoon highs around normal going toward this time next week.

More Winter Warmth Records Could Fall Through Thursday - but Then....

"The Gathering"  - December 26th , Cape Canaveral

TODAY- NEW YEAR'S EVE (THURSDAY): Little sensible (detectable) change in general on the overall scheme of local weather affects today through Wednesday other than a gradual change in wind direction to more southerly, especially Tuesday - Wednesday. Only mitigating factor from breaking some afternoon high temperature records (once again, as has been the case for several unusually consecutive days now) would be increasing cloud coverage resulting in filtered sunlight or even cloudier periods.

Though, as such, record warm morning lows then may well become more likely.  
Little chance of rainfall though showers are possible, as was the case yesterday; however, they will be spread far apart from each other and occur mostly south of Vero Beach toward the coast, at least for the first parts of today. 

The next three days is too far out in time to get specific under the current circumstances.

FRIDAY is NEW YEAR'S DAY:  This day gets complicated in regard to cold frontal passage, especially south of I-4. 

The GFS (Global Forecast System model) has varied very little in regard to a front entering Central Florida sometime between midnight New Year's Eve through early afternoon New Year's Day across at least 12 model runs now - consistency is everything in this case and it has been consistent. Latest guidance shows it might temporarily 'stall' across Central on New Year's Day making for one last warm one along a line from Cape Canaveral to Tampa Bay and South. This particular front though is expected only to bring temperatures to near normal for this time of year (at least at first). 

Beyond this point in time , namely New Year's Day, everything starts to fall apart in regard to consistency in model runs.

WEEKEND: Though winds swing around to easterly rapidly behind eventual fropa (frontal passage)...a secondary upper level 'impulse' is forecast to pass overhead the very shallow front. As such, though weather might at first clear up and temperatures cool off (significantly so)...rain is also forecast to begin from north to south about 36 hours later early Sunday into the afternoon and on into Sunday night/early Monday with greatest impacts across all of Central and parts of South Florida. 

Forecasting temperatures, especially afternoon highs might be a extremely difficult to forecast and temperature forecast 'busts' could be likely if the GFS keeps showing what it is showing. 

Rainfall is expected to fall BEHIND the front over the second half of the weekend   and if so, cold air could be dragged from aloft, downward, causing a greater fall in temperatures than would otherwise be the case...with rain included. This would be quite a shock compared to the prolonged record breaking warmth we've had for quite a while now.

Temperatures might hold steady in the upper 40Fs - lower 50Fs range..and if possible, parts of South Central Florida might even be 'colder' than regions further north because of the rainfall. 

However, this has been a fairly new developing suggestion by the model...but for now ...Sunday is not looking to be a 'very nice day' at all. Cold and wet. 

Will be keeping abreast on this one during earlier parts of this week, as that is still a good time away from today (early Monday).

BEYOND: What follows the weekend (or what does or doesn't happen) again goes across the boards in terms of possibilities -  from easterly flow and moderating temperatures to a secondary cold air intrusion for our first True Burst of Statewide Cold for the Winter 2015-2016 season..or maybe not. 

Too far out in time obviously if we can't even be sure about the weekend time frame with much certainty. 

PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY: Watching for a severe weather event as well. If keeping up with the headlines some might be aware of the tornado outbreaks that occurred in parts of the Southern Plains , Deep South, and Midwest since Christmas Eve. 

With cold air working further south, Florida will be prime for being next in line as the next Streak of the Southern Jet Branch works across Old Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico , pointing  directly at Florida after next weekend toward the January 6th -10th time frame (for now). Too far out in time but other than to observe that Florida , like the Hurricane-less Season, is long overdue for a winter severe weather outbreak.  

We might well observe that later in January through all of February into March might be more active  in those regards this year if the currently broad synoptic scale pattern continues - so far, seeing little reason for it not too across the broad scheme of things.

More Record Warmth to Endure Through Mid-Next Week

Birds of a Feather Flock Together

TODAY: Little sensible/appreciable change on this Christmas Day in the current weather regime for Florida south of I-4  into the upcoming weekend. Muggy - gooey mornings with periods of fog lifting into mid-morning and warm with near to record warm temperatures (either record warm minimums, afternoon maxes, or a mix of both) to match up with the dew point temperatures running into the lower 70Fs  and mid-upper 60Fs away from the coast over night. 

Below are some example 'record reports' out of the Tampa (TPA), Melbourne (MLB), and Miami (MIA) National Weather Service (NWS) Offices from the past two days. There are more examples of the same from these stations.

 Noting  that only official reporting stations are considered - but MOST areas in the state are not 'official reporting stations'..so records could well have fallen in any given area, for example in Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral, Holopaw , or any other location in Florida that is not an official site without it ever being reported.

As for Christmas Day (today !), the cloud deck noted on yesterday's satellite imagery and was observed to those who noticed it is thinning out - dissipating - thus, more sun today than yesterday with some foggy areas early on through mid-late morning .  Note from above that Naples was not under the cloudy canopy yesterday that other's were, and as a result experienced a high temperature of 88F. Note also, that some of the morning lows down in southeast Florida are comparable to summer time morning lows.

BEYOND: Next storm system will be taking shape over for South Texas in the next 72 hours and will track ENE and eventually NNE (away from Florida) with a possible severe weather set up once again for far East Texas, part of Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas (at least)..and this region and more is already being 'outlooked' for such by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in the 27th -28th time frame. Apart from this upcoming event, and snow fall mainly along and west of the continental divide ..warm weather prevails even up the U.S. east coast toward the Del Marva (to lesser 'degrees' Fahrenheit). Things appear to remain dry for the most part until at least Monday.

THE CHANGE:  Question becomes when will the 'Climate Change' come for Winter 2016? Latest GFS continues to spell out a cold bout coming New Year's Day time frame and for nearly the entire week to follow..though 'Official Forecast Discussions' are not alluding to such as of yet are in some cases include one sentence concerning it. 

But take heed, if the GFS verifies...a temperature shift of nearly a 35F degrees fall in morning lows and up to 25-30F for afternoon highs is possible, though suspect the model might be a little over-done - time will tell. But if so, that would be quite an unaccommodating change to get acclimated to considering the long-string of warmth we've had to 'endure'. 

Merry Christmas - It Won't Be Getting Cold for a Year !

Sunrise December 23rd, 2015 in Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY: Continued 'sticky' (especially near the beaches) and warmer with lows in the lower 70Fs and highs upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs. Some higher southern stream jet cirrus clouds will be passing overhead today ..and given the low sun angle as we have just come past the shortest-day of the year with the advent of the celestial winter season - every beam of sunshine is necessary for record breaking heating which won't occur today. The better bet in the next several days is record warm minimums as opposed to afternoon highs - though some future days hold promise too for that.

TONIGHT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE SERVICES: Mid 70Fs temperature wise and very light wind "Sticky, muggy' but otherwise rain is not foreseen other than a renegade shower though very remote.

CHRISTMAS DAY: More of the same except wind becomes a bit more easterly as opposed to southerly. Immediate coast might be held down to the upper 70Fs to near 80F as a result. The clincher in regard to afternoon high temperatures will be the amount of cirrus clouds (or lack thereof).

BEYOND: No cold fronts are foreseen in the near future. There was a severe weather outbreak yesterday across parts of the mid-west and the Deep South. The next one is currently slated for the December 27th -28th time frame. No periods of 'definitely forecast-able rain' is in the guidance - not to say there won't still be chances of some showers to emerge in days to come - just for now they all look for weak in anything other  than random.

It is the overall pattern change foreseen by the GFS model that brings a cold front knocking at Central Florida's Door near Midnight on New Year's Eve

If the GFS is right. a "pattern flip-flop' will be in order for the country at least for a short time..with a big ridge over the West Half of the Country and Trough over the East. This is still a good week away though, and things can change.

Below is an image showing what that pattern 

would look like at 

around 5000 Ft AGL

MAY ALL HAVE A JOYOUS CHRISTMAS TIME FILLED WITH HOPE 

THIS HOLIDAY SEASON

Latest Warm Up to Last Until 2016 ? Looks Likely So Far

Sunrise at Cocoa Beach, Florida - December 20, 2015

TODAY-WEDNESDAY: Increasing warmth after 'the cool spell' as wind becomes ESE to eventually southeast. Slugs of moisture to approach Central from South Florida periodically, the first of which will be today. Chance of a trace of rain or increasing cloud cover from time to time but for the most part 'muggy' and warmer with overnight lows at the coast in the low 70s (see next image) and cooler inland each day though there too it will be warmer round the clock.

Early Morning Pre-Sunrise Temperature Depiction

The best chances of rain through Wednesday appear to be during the very late afternoons into the evening hours through early morning the follow day (both for tonight and Tuesday late afternoon through Wednesday morning) but timing is too uncertain to peg it down to the hour.

THURSDAY: A cold front positioned near the Mississippi River will make little eastward progress, perhaps another 200 miles before stalling and retreating back north as high pressure centered several hundred miles east of the Carolina holds fast.  (below)

THURSDAY - CHRISTMAS EVE: Continued warm with southerly winds. This might be the warmest of days to come yet still, Some record warm minimums appear more to be threatened rather than afternoon high temperatures though away from the east coast it's always possible.

Less chance of rains by this time if guidance is correct as a dry slot approaches in the mid-level circulation

CHRISTMAS DAY: Warm with lows in the mid-upper 60Fs (inland) and lower 70Fs east coast and highs near 80F at the coast and a bit warmer inland under partly cloudy skies. Perhaps a shower at any time but too far out in time to draw any conclusions . One thing is certain, no cold front looms to threaten the current pattern. Still appears that many folks west of the Continental Divide in higher elevations (mainly) could see plenty of snow from SE Colorado to Northern and Central California and into Northern AZ.

BEYOND: Continued pretty much the same for several days beyond Christmas. The GFS has been showing a change somewhere between December 30th - January 5 but whether that is 'real' or not is not possible to know considering how far out in time that is with lack of reliability that far out in time. 

Near Record Warmth Possible Wednesday & Christmas Eve

Sunrise Friday Morning, Cape Canaveral Florida

TODAY: Conditions are panning out as expected in previous post. The warmest location this morning (advertised by this blog several times as being  rather typically mornings) is 'east of US1 and/or  Route A1A along the east coast south to around Lake Okeechobee and/or through the Keys holds true. Colder regions mostly along and north of I-4 (especially the Panhandle) and down along the west side of the state toward Punta Gorda.

Winds from the North will pick up a bit with some mixing of daytime heating, with highs mostly in the lower 60Fs along and north of I-4, mid-upper 60Fs Central, and into the 70Fs further south.

Sky Conditions have rapidly improved since last night, though some patches of clouds will still be out there today, not a significant amount will be present  as winds become a bit more NNE later in the day gusting to around 20-25mph at times.

SUNDAY: The same areas as shown above that are warmest this Saturday morning will repeat the same this morning, but all areas will be generally be 5-8F degrees warmer Sunday morning, but  Sunday afternoon will remain cool one more day with mid-upper 60Fs and lower 70Fs spreading north.

MONDAY: The Bigger Change begins on December 21st (the Winter Equinox / Solstice) as the sun passes over the Tropic of Capricorn on December 21st or 22nd depending on where on the calendar map one is located. For this blogger's region, this will occur at 11 :48PM  Monday evening or 23:47:28 UTC (Universal Time Coordinates) ..as we head toward near record warmth on Tuesday, the 22nd. 

On  Monday morning into the afternoon wind will be southerly with back to warmer mornings and evenings round the clock fot a long string of days ahead. Tuesday continues warmer.

WEDNESDAY: Near record warmth on the Second Full Day of astronomical winter, mostly south of the I-4. Slight chance of showers or sprinkle near the east coast later Tuesday through Wednesday, but most rain activity will occur north of I-4 next week as it appears now.

Beach Access Crossover - Cocoa Beach, Florida

FULL MOON: Christmas morning  Eleven Minutes past Midnight, first time we've had a Full Christmas Moon since 1977, and will not occur again until 2034.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Wind becomes more Southeast from off the Atlantic so 'near record warmth' not expected though 'above normal' temperatures will occur all locations from Christmas Day and for several days to follow.

In Summary, this morning is the coolest morning we will experience for at least a week if not the next 10 days.

Record High Temperatures Could Fall Today - Cold Frontal Passage Friday

Early Morning Cape Canaveral Salty Mist 

TODAY: Some official record high temperatures are in reach of breaking today as wind becomes southwest into late morning and early afternoon under partly to scattered clouds. Unlike the other day when some higher clouds were present and still all records were tied, today there are no high clouds which will set the stage to break them more easily. Additionally, most of the previous record highs for this date are lower than the other day (which was around 85F -86F). No rain anticipated today but for North Florida. Orlando will be the most difficult high temperature max to be breached (and possibly Daytona).

FRIDAY: Little change from previous post other than it does not appear that it will get as cold as previously surmised especially along the IMMEDIATE east coast from Canaveral south toward Vero Beach. 

Cold front is now slated to come through a bit later on Friday ..as opposed to a pre-noon time passage..it now looks like between 10AM - 1pm  between I-4 to SR 528 , and then through 3 PM toward Ft Pierce and then through all of the state by sunset. 

Highs on Friday could still reach the upper 70Fs to near 80F or so from Central Brevard and south before front passes through though cloud cover and showers could keep record highs at bay. Further north cloud cover and earlier passage will keep highs in the lower 60Fs.

Slight chance of some rumbles mainly South Central Florida but showers are possible further north (Central) through   noon-2pm (or there will be at least extensive cloud cover ?).

SATURDAY: Drier air works into North Central and on down to South Florida as high pressure passes  quickly from west to east across the Deep South north of the state Friday night through sunrise on Saturday. Winds will at first be NW but swing around to North and eventually just east of due North by sunrise Saturday morning. The NAM was most generous with the LACK of colder air showing only a low for example near Port Canaveral of  60F; the GFS is not far from that though showing a 55F -59F. Both show breezy conditions, but either way the colder air will be found west of I95 toward the west coast and south toward Ft Myers with highs a good 20F degrees cooler than today.  

SUNDAY: After a day with highs in the 60Fs another similar day in store but about 4-6F degrees warmer..approaching 70F from 528 and south. Continued breezy with coastal clouds moving in.

Chance of low topped showers possible from the Cape and South Sunday evening into Monday morning but that chance is extremely low. Better chance of showers begins on Monday through Wednesday (coming in off the ocean from the east).


NEXT WEEK TO CHRISTMAS: Warming trend after the brief 'cool down' this weekend..with near Record High temperatures again possible the 23RD and the 24TH (Christmas Eve day). 

GFS is showing chance of showers and thunderstorms (possibly strong) on Christmas Eve but that is still a week away and things could easily change in that regard. 

So far the next front is to have less of a cooling effect than the one to approach on Friday/Saturday. It too (even so) is followed by a very quick warm up.

Does the Warm December Weather Make People Feel a Bit This Way?