Potential For Strong to Severe Storms Will Exist After 8PM , Warm on Tuesday

   "Fillmore"

TODAY-OVERNIGHT: There will be the potential for strong to even severe storms late tonight through around 4-5AM Tuesday morning though location of such storms and timing is very difficult at time to determine due to   model run inconsistencies and little agreement between different models, notwithstanding uncertainty in a wide variety of ways. 

All guidance does bring a number of factors into the play in the wind fields with very cold air aloft such as near -15C at 500mb (20000ft) which is unusual for Central Florida almost any time of year. Shearing wind profiles both in direction and speed combined with ample (but barely ample) instability (which is a big factor that might reduce the severe chance to near zero) is a big question as is any real drive (reason) for discrete storm formation.

The more 'organized' part of the pattern set up passes across the Panhandle region earlier on in the form of a broken sort of squall line which might die off as it gets toward Tallahassee region in the early evening hours.

FURTHER SOUTH: Chance of showers and who knows, maybe a thunder across parts of mainly South Central to Central Florida moving up and out from the south to southwest then offshore, possibly as soon as mid afternoon up through near sunset.

NOTE: THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INCLUDES ALL OF NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL
MIGHT NEED TO WATCH TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTH OF FT. LAUDERDALE
AS WELL AS NEAR TH PORT CHARLOTTE AREA

THE BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS though is after the 10PM through around 4AM though this could change. There is a chance that few of any areas will even get severe weather or, in fact, any rain at all. Chances are things will become a bit more clear by mid-late afternoon what the evening and over-night have to bring, so s would advise keeping at least one ear leaning toward local news channels either during the dinner or bed times hours.

TUESDAY: Regardless of what does or does not occur late today or tonight, there is agreement that the 'All Clear' can be heralded before sunrise with clearing conditions probably even before sunrise. Tuesday looks to be a warm one with a cold front still to come toward sunset for Central Florida and then the remainder of the state after dark. Highs could reach mid-upper 70Fs many areas, even some lower 80Fs in a few locations contingent upon cloud coverage.

BEYOND: Though a front will be going through there is not a big temperature change behind it. Even that has been going up and down in the forecasts but best bet for now will be to settle on temperatures running near climatological norms...and considering that lately the CLIMATE has been no where close to LOGICAL lately for Florida (cold temperature wise) any upward climb in the mercury would be warmly welcomed (at least for those who do not prefer colder / cool weather).

There is another front or two to come in the next 8 days but so far (fingers crossed) none of them have that much of a 'shock value' to them in the temperatures. After the recent thread of days and then the other string of them prior, not much will be a cold shock any more. Almost no where to go but up from here on out .

ON THE OTHER HAND: Next POTENTIAL THREAT for SEVERE WEATHER is being shown to be around the 23-25th time frame. That chance showed up a while back..disappeared and has now re-appeared with fairly good consistency over the past 24 hours but it's still nearly 8 -10 days out in time and much can change. Given what I'm seeing now..it is at least worth noting for the time being as the factors that could eventually come into play (if so) would be all too sufficient for severe weather for  someone in the Southeast states and/or along the Gulf Coast, including Florida.

Cool/Windy vs Cold/Breezy Seesaw Pattern Through Wednesday - Rain Chances Today

TODAY: Very sketchy in the details today which will make or break areas in the rain chance (or rainfall totals) arena mainly fast East Central and Southward into interior portions thereof. 

Pre-sunrise temperatures across the state are running along an   anomaly of cooler air in a region such as say interior Dade County than the A1A strip of Brevard County as can be seen in the graphic below. Remember those warmer regions as those might well be where the better chances of rainfall (especially after 5PM will begin later today) might occur toward and after dark.

State Temperatures (at 2 meters AGL) at 5AM show  warmer going from west to East as
opposed to North to South

LATER TODAY: Wind should die down some after sunrise as a low pressure area  forms along the inverted trough exemplified by the temperature and wind profiles shown above. Exactly where and when this will turn into a closed circulation will affect who sees measurable rains today (if any) and who does not. 

It is also noted that where it is warmest now at sunrise will also be the warmest locations all day today for the most part, mainly from east of Orlando and south to around all of South Florida south of The Big Lake, progressively cooler toward the west coast even this afternoon.  

From the west, mid-level low pressure system moving east and north will usher in a vigorous upper level wind field pattern with more than sufficient Bulk Shear and even  helicity (north half) for severe storms; however, instability will be close to non-existent so no concern in those regards. 

On the other hand, with such wind energy aloft coincident with the low forming 'somewhere' along to just east of the South Half of the State, rain chances should increase as those winds aloft move over the state late today into early through late evening. 

Could hear some thunder mainly east of Ft Pierce and South out toward the Bahamas and maybe a rumble aloft as far north as off shore Cape Canaveral, but it will be the "rain chances on the increase" that is primary element for today's composition. 

Totals could vary from none to as much as 1/2" or more depending on where the low sets up later today by the time all is said and done (before sunrise Sunday).

SAMPLE ONLY of what might evolve by early evening.
Noting best chance for measurable rainfall might also be where it is
generally warmest at sunrise this morning . Yellow bounds
indicate where rain fall is also possible.
Best chance though timing wise will be after 5pm - 1AM.

Otherwise, apart from the rain chance today,  the  theme through Wednesday will be cooler to colder temperatures and breezy to down right windy at times through Wednesday.

SUNDAY: Rain chances exit well east before sunrise with cold air advection in full throttle with gusting morning and afternoon wind from the Northwest. 

Mixing  with cold air advection and cleared skies might make for gusts above 25 mph for a time with highs barely eking out of the lower - mid 50F's on Sunday; dying off a bit Sunday night toward Monday morning.

MONDAY: Will watch for a 'cold socket' across Central Florida interior. Wind lighter by far   interior but not so much along the immediate east coast as the strengthening low pressure now far from the state lifts up the U.S. east coast (off shore). Some guidance has been showing upper 30Fs into South Central Florida away from the coasts but warmer than that to the north. Example would be colder inland of Stuart than inland of Daytona Beach.

Another front will be on the way however, overnight Tuesday.

TUESDAY: Breezy to windy at times during the day after a cool start but not quite as cold as Monday morning with highs in the lower-mid 60Fs . 

Wind from the west if not even SW for a time. No rain chances though and probably not many clouds but for a brief period (maybe overnight).  Front to move across the state swiftly after dark.

WEDNESDAY: Monday was the first colder morning, Wednesday will be the next colder morning with the frontal passage going on while most sleep - a bit breezy at that as well. Highs lower than on Tuesday as a result, closer to the way it will be on Sunday.

Pod of Pelicans Soars Past During a Dramatic Florida Sunrise  

THURSDAY-BEYOND: The windy and very cool to a bit cold seesaw shenanigans end Thursday morning as the last of the family of fronts will have cleared the area. 

Slowly moderating temperatures into the weekend with easterly flow becoming established. 

Forecasts will likely be speaking of lows in the lower - mid 50Fs (mainly inland) and highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs for a number of days to follow, though with the prolonged onshore flow and vertical depth of it over time , showers will come back into the picture by Monday or Tuesday (but light and low topped) , maybe even  for a number of days ..or perhaps it will amount only to decks of stratocumulus clouds. Too far out in time to know.

No severe weather or even a cold fronts for that matter seen for a decent stretch of time,  maybe a good 4 days at least from Thursday through the weekend and into the beginning of the following week.

Cool, Cold, and Colder into All of Next Week

Wednesday Surprise Sunrise

TODAY: Not much to really be said today through the upcoming week once we squeegee past today.

Cold front on the slide through the Panhandle this morning producing rain and some thunder near the Gulf Coast. The boundary will slide northeast-ward as it progressively sinkingly progresses east and south with time slowly but surely toward Central Florida late this evening.

Chance of rain showers, lighter but lingering rain, and some thunder possibly even with a few stronger wind gusts this afternoon to early evening North and parts of North Central. 

This graphic might even be generous though might need to watch the Dead Central Region for a trend per the previous blog post the other day for a better thunder chance. Only change this post was to shift the 'thunder chance' a bit further north though that might have been hasty. It all depends on how quickly the boundary reaches Central. The slower it is the less chance of Thunder near the Dead Central demarcation zone.

 

BEYOND: Nothing much to say. As noted in previous post there was a chance that another low pressure area could end up forming near the East Coast of Florida and move away which would have little effect, or it would form well to the west of the State which could result in a Severe Weather chance. 

The former option over the past 48 hours has been winning out so will ride with no chance of Severe Weather come late Saturday or Sunday though there will be a period of increased cloud cover and maybe some light rains.

The bigger story through the upcoming week beginning  Friday morning will be 

A. Cool to even rather Cold Temperatures;
B.  at times combined with Wind

After the boundary's passage the cooler air will mostly work in well toward Sunrise and mid Morning Friday making for a very breezy and very cool day considering recent days like yesterday tying some record high temperatures in a few locations. 

Though not 'real cold' it will be quite cool. Another 'low' to form near South Florida but extremely weak in nature could create another shower chance sometime over the weekend but the bigger storm will be as it strengthens over the Gulf Stream waters while pulling away toward the northeast.  

Circulation behind it plus high pressure building in from the west will draw colder air south, down, and across  the peninsula of Florida in repeated various modes in coming days.

SUNDAY MORNING  for example will be the real first day of such but the theme continues as consecutive 'reinforcements' in the form of 'short -wave troughs come across from time time only to further exasperate the situation.

By perhaps Wednesday - Friday mornings we might be hearing talks of freeze warning for parts of North Central Florida or at least wind chill advisories. 

Some days will never see 60F, but other days will see lower to maybe mid 60Fs with a west wind which might be refreshing, especially when keeping in mind that within another month the consecutive days of cold to even very cool weather will be drawing to a close . 

Overall,   westerly to NW winds more than anything else after Sunday, dry and cool to even cold a few days. 

No point in saying much more than the change out from the described should begin sometime next weekend.

Rockin' to the 80Fs (Tuesday) - Chance of Rain/Thunder Late Wednesday/Thursday

Sunrise Sunday Morning Upon Cocoa Beach

TODAY: High cloud canopy clearing from north to south such that by the time one reads this post Central Florida and all of The North will have already cleared. 

There remains a mid-level pocket of moisture (and clouds) that guidance implies will be on the way out heading toward the hours of 1-3PM. Low level moisture will increase a bit though, but overall we'll see more sun today it so appears with highs in the mid 70Fs for the most part.

TUESDAY: Easterly to eventually southeast wind. This day appears to be the Finest of all in regard to warmth and least cloud cover with highs reaching the lower to maybe a mid 80F well west of I-95 with the immediate coasts remaining in the mid-upper 70Fs depending on how far north one traverses and how close to the ocean one is. Ocean temperatures are only in the mid 60Fs off Canaveral and even cold further north but warmer toward Ft Pierce and south due to the proximity of the warmer Gulf Stream waters.

WEDNESDAY: High clouds again surge northward in advance of an approaching cold front. The attendant low pressure center from this front will be forming near the Four Corners region today and tomorrow and move east then NE toward Nova Scotia. As such, not much torque to slice the front right through but rather it will be a bit of a dragged out process. 

By the time the front reaches Dead Central from a line near Tampa to Melbourne, FL later on Thursday  the low pressure is nearly in the North Atlantic off Nova Scotia (as opposed to prior frontal passages with the low (for instance) moving off the Carolinas).  

Best chance of rain and maybe some thunder will be near and north of I-4, though it is possible that as far south as a line from near Melbourne to South Tampa Bay region and north could get into some late day rain showers as well.

THURSDAY: Chance of showers and maybe some thunder (maybe even an isolated strong storm but not going into that on this post though temperatures aloft and sufficient bulk shear imply some winds gusting toward 50 mph is always possible) will be along and south of a line from near Ormond Beach to Cedar Key...and north of a line  running from near Vero Beach toward Sarasota (see graphic below). Best chance of  thunder appears to be about 40 miles either side of a line running from Tampa to Cape Canaveral.

FRIDAY: Front to rapidly clear with the colder air to follow. This front is going through a bit like in November fashion earlier in the season meaning a quick turnaround to Northeast winds post frontal passage with quickly modifying air mass. Highs on Friday in the 60Fs and breezy...likely cloud cover will accompany the wind as well...especially by Saturday when some showers might be added to the mix.

BEYOND: Next chance of a Bout of Severe Weather begins to Emerge as Soon as Sunday over the Gulf of Mexico. 

After the frontal passage on Thursday a region of 500mb energy down through the lower levels will already be crossing North Mexico moving east. Vorticity from the front remains strung out across Central Florida and back nearly the whole way to connect with the next system approaching in the mid-upper levels from the West. 

As that Disturbance rides along the boundary the GFS hedges on kicking up at least one surface low in the Central Gulf to move east northeast to northeast going into the Sunday/Monday time frame.

This might well change though as it is still a good week out. Guidance has been bouncing around on this 'notion' for days now already.

 One option has been for a very weak low to spin up east of the state which would mean nothing to Florida..but if it spins up well to the west of the state and moves east..different story.  Latest implies a "Marginal - Slight Severe Risk" of Severe Weather Late Sunday/Mid-Day Monday Time Frame for North and Central Florida . The usual caveat already being also suggested (Low CAPE / high shear environment). 

We'll be staying tuned to this potentially evolving situation though - for now, just a heads up as again -- at this point in time it's nothing more than an itchin'.

Marginal Risk of Brief Severe - Record Rainfall Totals Exceeded 2 1/4 - 4 " For Date

Search for the Catch of the Day

TODAY: One more day of off and on again rain (some areas much more 'on' than 'off) with a 'Marginal Risk' (in Storm Prediction Center (SPC) terms) mainly South Central - South of severe wind gusts and/or brief tornado. More rainfall records could fall. A few official reporting locations reported record rainfall totals for the date yesterday from Vero to Southwest Florida to West Palm though certainly other 'non-official' areas likely broke  records as well - those will go left unknown forever since no recorded logs exist for those areas.

OTHERWISE: One more Jet Speed max of 140kts is approaching Florida now approaching the South Central Gulf. Greatest instability will remain from near Lake Okeechobee and south. There appears to be two boundaries. One located in that area and a bit of a pseudo-version of it to stretch from near Tampa toward Port St. John to develop by noon time or so n the helicitiy fields. Forecast discussions are hitting on South and South Central (Miami even) ; however, latest guidance of 2AM is indicating a secondary area creeping northward toward "Dead Central" by noon time to be 'of effect' possibly through 3pm. That areas (south of the purple line below) would lack sufficient instability it appears at this time but will give it a heeding regardless).

Latest HRRR radar simulations are indicating some briefly stronger but very tiny pin-prick returns near Tampa and Canaveral area in general from late morning through early afternoon whereas South Florida by that time has little going on at all. Thus, a bit mystified at the current trend since 5AM that was not in place at the time some forecast discussions were being released.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Front to clear most of state other than South Florida by around mid-night or shortly thereafter with quick clearing of skies by Friday.

Friday will have brisk NW winds with a high barely eking into the lower 60Fs but at least it should be mostly sunny except South Florida where some high jet stream cirrus clouds might be in place.

SATURDAY: Very cool with decreasing wind  this morning with lows ranging from the mid-40Fs inland areas (Central and North) to near the 50F to mid 50Fs mark immediate East Coast Canaveral and South (warmest South Florida). 

Highs in mid-60Fs with light wind by afternoon. Saturday appears to be a very pleasant day apart from the chance of the veil of high cirrus clouds which will begin to clone themselves northward across most all areas south of I-4 and further north with time.

SUNDAY: Not quite as cool in the morning with a high in the lower 70Fs unless cirrus cloud cover is too much. Best chance of warmest temps well inland from the east coast north of West Palm and all of South Florida as winds will by then be southeast.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Warm with highs approaching the lower 80Fs South Florida and Orlando area and west well away from the east coast where Atlantic water temperatures are in the lower-mid 60Fs. Don't know if we'll be hearing talk like "near record highs  possible" yet but it appears that might be possible. 

Next chance of rain emerges on Wednesday with the next front.  

Beyond this next front we might see a day or two of more 'Winter Like" temperatures reminiscent of our previous cold weather event but not for as along a duration   with a  limited coverage area as well. But as it is now, it could get cold again for a brief time. 

Additional potentially severe weather set ups are not being seen in the long-range forecast for the time being. 

All's clear! 

Chance of Iso-Strong Storms - Possible Large Rainfall Totals Wednes Thurs Day

TODAY: Little change in forecast philosophy from previous post. Model guidance yet has come to closely sync up despite that 'said upcoming event' is less than 24 hours away (through 60 hours).

Some east coast showers have materialized lifting north as ingredients slowly come together during the remainder of the day into the over-night. Nose of 120 knot southern stream jet across the Gulf Mexico approaches Florida as mid-upper level impulses move across the Mexican Altiplano and Rio Grande Valley (RCV) regions.  Additionally, it appears another player might work in lifting north and east from the Yucatan Channel. 

Line of thinking is it is this impulse (if so) that would be the most responsible for any severe weather come early - late morning Wednesday for Southwest Florida to parts of the east coast any where from Sarasota and south through The Keys and up the east coast toward Cape Canaveral from the hours of 5AM - 11AM (from southwest to northeast with time).

WEDNESDAY: As noted above chance of an isolated storm, possible producing a quick tornado but otherwise some large rainfall totals. Storms do not appear they will necessarily be moving real fast unlike the previous events. There are other factors at play such as isentropic upglide and other terms which we'll leave out from discussion's sake, but be it so...adequate moisture and retreating warm air lifting north and over-running as as a bit of a wamr front forms.... combined with colder air aloft and increasing dew point air at the surface into the mid-60Fs with shearing winds (though not as strong as previous event) combined with difficult to time mid-upper level impulses either from the south (Wednesday) or west (late Wednesday through Thursday) adds up to a chance of the chance of some rather large rainfall accumulations for this time of years  going into Thursday if not even Thursday night as well.

NOTE: This would not be a 'continuous rainfall event'..there might well be a long break in any potential action from the first parts of Wednesday toward Wednesday evening (or other times as well).

Better chances so far for stronger storms appears to be first parts of Wednesday then again well after dark to just past midnight Wednesday night - Thursday as a second wave of disturbances approaches Florida from the west. 

But, again, timing and location of said disturbances is uncertain as is the degree of available convective potential energy. 

Like last  nearly CAPE-less events, instability has been lacking and this upcoming situation appears to be no different, though there might be more available than there was for these last 'forecast threat' before we had that cold spell along either the west of east coast or both of them for that matter.

THURSDAY: Again, more chances of rainfall but timing and locations are near impossible to determine without better guidance consistency. There is a chance as graphic implied that some locations might see in excess of 2-3" of rain when all is said and done, whereas some other areas might see 1/2" or less. It will depend mainly on where disturbances cross the state, but slower storm motions should allow rainfall totals to add up to more efficient rain gauge fillers this go around.

FRIDAY: Regardless of which model we look at, there appears to be consensus that all is pretty much said and done by around midnight Thursday night to before sunrise Friday.  Clearing on Friday and cooler with breezy NW winds with highs in the lower- mid 60Fs.

WEEKEND: Breezy at first and quite cool though not like our previous event. Lows in the mid-upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs and highs generally in the lower-mid 60Fs on Saturday but warming on Sunday.


Though Sunday will start out cool, by now we are getting a bit acclimated to the colder air and besides, it'll warm into the upper 60Fs at least by Sunday afternoon as wind already begins to swing around to southerly again.

WARMER MONDAY - THURSDAY afternoons with highs in the 70Fs and some lower 80Fs in a few locations. Dry as finally temperatures will average out to above climo.

Frosty Start to Week: "Chance of a Risk" of Strong - Severe Storms Wednesday

TODAY: Last of the cold shot being felt this morning as wind has relaxed significantly and temperatures fall in typical fashion down the spine of the state and toward each coast. Frost might even be experienced as far south as Okeechobee this morning, even toward Punta Gorda in various low lying pockets and in the more rural areas though more urbanized areas for example parts of Orlando will remain unfrosted.

After the defrosting, temperature will warm today to the mid-upper 60Fs with light wind .  Compared to the past two days this will be a much welcome change especially after the locals have been toughed up a bit over the past few days. Nothing can touch us now! (Especially as that might have been the coldest period we will have all winter, or so it seems). Climatology says, "We are leaving the coldest time of year by week's end".

Chance that over night  high jet stream cirrus might begin to spread in from the WSW after midnight whilst we are sleeping and thicken a bit toward day break into the afternoon. ...  Tuesday will start out much different than Monday will end cloud cover wise.

TUESDAY:  A bit of a 'warm front' ( though very loosely speaking ) will lift from The South to Central early morning through mid-afternoon. It may be more of an extension of a coastal trough, but regardless some guidance anticipates some isolated shower activity with this boundary from South Central to Central Florida between early morning toward the 1pm time frame from south to north. 

Yet warmer with highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs. Highs might be held into the 60Fs though with the anticipated high clouds to move in. 

Any shower activity will be low topped as most moisture will be in the upper levels and the low levels leaving a dry and broad mid-level layer.


WEDNESDAY: Model discrepancy between the two big players, The ECMWF and GFS. has been on-going for the past 48 and continues even up through the evening runs.  As a result the extended outlook toward Wednesday/Thursday remains a bit of a mystery though rain looks certain for many areas.

 It comes down to a matter of exactly when and if so, how strong and placement of some of the surface features. Given what I'm seeing in the morning NAM combined with the GFS would not be surprised to see a strong to borderline severe storm or two across South Central to Central Florida from early Wednesday toward early afternoon time spreading from west to east as noted below. But if the ECMWF model starts to be the main player, that chance will be ramped up. There has been no consistency this season on which either model has played out as the dominant successor, but the GFS has all in all been doing a fine job, apparently up until this upcoming system (or so it seems).

Either way, would hold to the thought that there is a 'Chance that there will be a Risk of Severe Weather' ...that is to say, a chance of a chance...until models can come into better agreement.

THURSDAY:  GFS consistent at least as per previous post of some post-frontal cloud cover and/or rain fall in the cool air (50Fs) for a short time. Whether that will hold true is yet to be known but suspect it will in some fashion or another. And if so, for how long? 


FRIDAY-SATURDAY; Regardless, will go with whatever is to happen having cleared the entire state (except maybe far South Florida) by Friday. Cooler mornings and afternoons once again with temperatures running a bit below normal but nothing like this last visitation though one or both mornings might be a bit breezy and cold again...lows in the lower- mid 40Fs for Central and bit warmer South seems to be what is implied for now.

IN THE FAR BEYOND: No very cold shots are foreseen into the first week of February, if we can snake through to mid-February any real cold spells would likely be very short lived. On the other hand, though the "El Nino' pattern of late seems to be taking a Sabbatical in some regards, this might be but a lull in the action to draw folks into a false sense of security. Moving into February/March  might once again see more conditions for severe weather events aside from this upcoming Wednesday . February looks to be the most active severe weather month per historical data though March is often thought to be a more active one as well.

Showers to Isolated Brief Strong Storms: Then Coldest of Season Yet Still

Storybook Mid Afternoon Thursday 

TODAY: No real surprises. Anyone who has seen the news or heard media outlets by now will know that there is a chance of a strong storm due to wind gusts or a brief tornado in quickly moving storm activity ahead of advancing cold front today. 

Southerly wind gusting to 20 mph late morning toward early afternoon to become more SSW - SW beyond 1 -2 pm. The time period for North Central and Central for a tornadic type spin-up appears to be from West to East roughly between noon - 2pm as noted in the graphic below. A secondary area toward the Keys and SW Florida might also be worth a heightened level of awareness a bit later in the day. Image below is only a guestimate. As of 5AM the Storm Prediction Center has a 'tornado interest' out for all areas north of the purple line drawn in across Central Florida.

Otherwise, chance of showers emerges between 10:30 - 11:30 AM across parts of South Central to North Central and North Florida both along the front itself and into Central along a quickly evolving pre-frontal trough as higher dewpoint air advances northward ahead of the front and along the trough. 

 The broader 'threat' for today is gusting winds in and near any storms but even in only some rainshowers . In general , apart from SW Florida the main interest will be on strong straight line winds. Any and all weather events will be quite brief but regardless, potentially 'disturbing'.

Front to clear all of North Central toward Central in the 5-6PM Time frame. See below

Best Guess for Cold Front's Position around 5PM

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY: Nothing new here. Rather breezy post frontal passage (FROPA) through Friday night and all of Saturday. Wind from the west gusting upward toward 30mph and much colder with temperatures  Central holding in the lower-mid 50Fs all day. Still watching for at least a broken cloud deck across the sky in the lower levels until at least mid-afternoon if not longer with a few sprinkles here and there if not even showers toward the West Coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT- SUNDAY MORNING:  Coldest / driest intrusion to punch southeast from the panhandle after midnight. Jury is out on just exactly how cold but the NAM model for example now is teetering with the freezing mark in such locations as the Orlando area toward I-95 as far south as South Central Osceola County. 

The immediate beaches from the Cape toward Vero Beach might see anything between 34F - 39F with wind from the NW around 10-15mph as wind will have died off a bit as the parent surface low moves further away and the pressure gradient relaxes. 

The GFS model is not quite as cold however as the NAM , running about 5 degrees warmer particularly toward the east coast.

SUNDAY: Very cool again all day after the coldest morning yet of the winter season but much improved sky and wind conditions. Highs in the mid-upper 50Fs with winds relaxing more and more as the day wears on.

MONDAY: The coldest air on this 'drainage morning' will be closer to the Orlando area and west down I27 toward the Tampa region. The immediate east coast from the Cape and south could well be 10-15F degrees warmer Monday morning than Sunday with light wind. Highs in the lower to mid 60Fs.

BEYOND: Tuesday looks to warm into the 70Fs and to be a very pleasant day 'round the clock. Next front slated for the 27-28th time frame. 

So far, the next front will not be like our previous visitors and might well lollygag a bit before making it's final exit. It will be a very shallow boundary at first.  

For example, on Wednesday the surface front is shown to be running diagonally from NE to SW across North and Central Florida while at only 2000 feet above ground the boundary is still back in the panhandle.

 Looks like a chance of storms though on the 27th well in advance of the front (Central and South)followed potentially by a brief over-running rain period and with very cool temperatures before the colder and drier air finally works south and east going into late week.  Maybe even some thunder mainly Central and South Florida Wednesday afternoon.

THURSDAY: Continued chance of cloud cover and/or some rain even in the post-frontal environment.

BEYOND: Cooler and dry, with very cool to cold morning inland locations. Light wind for several days stringed together. Temps running around 'normal' for this time of year.

Chance of An Isolated Strong/Severe Storm Friday - Coldest Yet All Sunday

El Nino' Sunset Wednesday Evening
(See Image end of Post for Sunrise, Same )

TODAY: Gradually modifying air mass over the state today with continuance of high cloud jet stream cirrus clouds streaming overhead as seen on visible satellite animation loops for the Gulf of Mexico, Florida to Mexico. Light wind otherwise with highs in lower 70Fs , tempered by the high clouds.

TONIGHT - EARLY FRIDAY: Somewhat of a warm front will lift rapidly north followed by southeast to south wind increasing in strength toward and after sunrise Friday. Higher dew point air will attempt to lift northward as front moves in from the west with a possible 'squall line' of some thunderstorms and brief but heavy rain-showers especially over the Loop Current and possibly impacting the Western Panhandle region. 

Chance that some  supercells will occur well west of Tampa possibly visible on their radar, but unlikely such creatures will make it to shore at least not with the same caliber.

MID-DAY FRIDAY: Chance of showers almost anywhere emerges by mid-late morning  especially along the West Coast from Brooksville south through Sarasota and possibly even the peninsula. Some of these could be strong to severe near the Tampa Bay area give or take 30 miles north/south. 

Though no guarantees tomorrow of 'severe' weather the signals are pretty strong for sufficient bulk shear coupled with cold air aloft down through the mid-levels for at least 'very windy rain showers'.  Probably becoming a bit overcast though wouldn't tell that from looking at the forecast high temperatures tomorrow well into the mid-70Fs all of Central/South Florida. 

Still calling for the Central Zones in general to bear the heaviest impact from this next system which is indicated in the graphic that follows.

Developing storm system over the Deep South might slow down forward motion and take a bit of a negative tilt as the Southern and Northern Branch jets attempt to coalesce and as a result.....

LATE MORNING - MID AFTERNOON: Forecast discussions from the weather offices note that the NAM model might be too slow on the fronts arrival, for if it were correct the chance of stronger storms increases. 

However, the GFS which was faster with the front seemed that it MIGHT actually have been picking up on a pre-frontal trough and not the front itself (as noted yesterday might be the case). 

For the more worse case scenario as a 'just in case' measure, will go  with the prefrontal trough quickly taking shape late morning to early afternoon down the spine of the state as both the morning NAM and GFS runs seem to be saying the same thing now in that regard.

Surface based instability will be limited but bulk shear and some directional shear / convergence along that trough could provide for limited low level forcing along that boundary , if so, some stronger activity would come together down the spine of the state as far south as maybe even northern Okeechobee County but be very isolated. 

See below:

DASHED LIGHT BLUE LINE IS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
Cold Front west of Tampa (1PM).
Better chances of strong activity shown to be Central Florida
and Much of the Panhandle region (earlier in the day)

MID-AFTERNOON -SUNSET FRIDAY: 
 Brief Window of Opportunistic Misfortune appears will be from 11AM - 3PM Central Florida and a bit sooner West side of State though this could change, especially if there is no pre-frontal trough at all in which case the Risk factor is even lower . 

There are no official forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center for Strong Storms tomorrow Central Florida ATTM (at time).

BEYOND: Chance of showers and cloud cover continues into Friday evening though very sparse  and at least into early-mid morning Saturday as gusting westerlies kick in behind the strengthening low pressure system pulling well away from the state in the post-frontal environment.  Chances are we'll be seeing a clearing at first but then more clouds might move in later.

Cloud cover for at least the morning hours Saturday in the form of lower clouds with breaks which might become wider going into the afternoon hours.  Highs in the mid 50Fs with winds gusting over 25mph.  

SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy to partly cloudy at first with gradual improvements but timing is questionable as to how fast we clear out. The sooner the better; regardless, windy and very cool never seeing 60F .

SATURDAY NIGHT: Rapid clearing so far seems to be the consensus if not earlier on, but especially toward midnight; and thus in ushers the drier slot of cold air in from the north northwest.

SUNDAY MORNING; This stands so far to look like what might be our coldest morning at least wind-chill factor wise  on a statewide basis this winter with lows well into the mid-upper 30Fs many parts of Central Florida. Waters in the area of Brevard are still relatively warm which then might have a modifying effect on the outer Barriers, regardless, even upper 30Fs to lower 40Fs (immediate coast?)  with gusts of wind to 25 mph won't make for beach picnics this morning nor into the afternoon where lower 50Fs if not some upper 40Fs far North Central will be the norm this day.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Wind should begin to notably decrease by early-mid afternoon.

MONDAY: Wind will die off rapidly after dark (and sooner on Sunday ) toward   such that Monday should be dawning with very light wind amazingly shown by the GFS model to be from...the east ..but more than likely more of a 'drift'. That wind though might not make any impact even at the beach until well after sunrise.  But here's recovery for us, highs in the mid-upper 60Fs already. Yipee!

BEYOND: Guidance between models according to forecast discussions out of the NWS Offices who have better access to data are not making any bets yet regarding the next front toward midweek next week (roughly the 27th). 

For now will go with what was already stated..another chance of storms but so far implications are of even lower caliber strength wise than tomorrow which is lower than it was the other day. 

But who knows for sure in either regard at this point?  But given the current nearer term outlook, suspect there will be more instability available on Wednesday if latest trends through Tuesday being shown continue and we might be watching South Florida more.

Thursday Morning El Nino' Sunrise

Strong Storms Possible Friday , Then "Down We Go Again"

Self Explanatory

TODAY: No surprises this morning per yesterday's post - the temperature forecast this morning would be especially an agriculturists nightmare as some TV stations are now scrambling to make fine tuning adjustments.  As suspected, the high jet stream cirrus that had dropped to South Florida late yesterday suddenly began to buckle back north toward midnight which affects how cold it will get (warmer underneath that protective layer as heat cannot more fully radiate back out to the atmosphere). 

Some freezing temperatures are noted across regions such as Brooksville for instance whereas in other locations once the clouds moved in only a very slow additional falling is being observed since midnight if not before that time. Oh nuts!

Despite that these clouds might remain in place (see image below) as they stream across from the west - southwest roughly along and south of I-4 it should still be warmer today as heights in the mid-levels will begin to rise in advance of the next system to cross the Eastern U.S. in the next 60 hours.

Highs today generally in the lower to mid 60Fs with the clouds across the south half of the state (for how long can't say but might be at least into the afternoon hours to even sunset).  

High pressure passing across the Deep South just north of Florida will continue out to the east and return easterly flow will commence though at first very light and but barely detectable. 

THURSDAY: Increasing easterly to east-southeast flow. Inland morning still very cool but nothing like this morning. Immediate east coast will really notice the change, but all areas will be considerably warmer tomorrow morning and into the afternoon with highs in the upper 60Fs through the lower 70Fs.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING: Increasing southeast wind  will draw moisture northward in advance of an approaching front .  

Suspect a line of storms will form over the Gulf of Mexico well west of Florida as a prefrontal trough forms just in advance of that feature almost right over the Peninsula going into late Friday morning. 

Instability might be a bit higher than it was from the previous system per forecast Lifted Indices  and there is some directional shear with that feature but more in the speed shear ; there does appear to be ample forcing to sustain rainstorm/possible thunder activity with the front itself.  

Appears that overnight Thursday Night into Friday morning a warm front will lift rapidly northward up the state followed by solid southeast to eventually south-southeast to south winds in the 15-20 mph range, possibly gusting by late morning to early afternoon in advance of the next system. 

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Chance of Strong to Risk of Marginally Severe Storm activity mainly in the form of  straight line winds / gusts. 

Forecast soundings as of the latest guidance show not only sufficient bulk shear but very cold temperatures in the mid-upper levels coupled with inverted V- Soundings due to some remaining drier air very close to the ground. 

Any parcels of very cold air falling through that drier air at ground level means 'accelerated descent' near the ground - it all spells out to gusts potentially in the 50 - 68 mph range if any decent updrafts can form. Even in and near rain showers wind would be quite gusty regardless.

Many areas will not see such winds should this end up being the situation,  but the chances now appear sufficient to qualify as a potential Risk factor.

Areas of interest beginning Early Friday through late afternoon from west to east are shown below. The window of opportunity is quite narrow though but so be it.

SATURDAY: This day is a tough call, but will ride with what was written again yesterday- that  being chance of being very windy (Lake Wind Advisory Criteria) surface wind, cloudy across parts of the state as well and very cool with highs in the upper 50Fs and maybe a better breaking of clouds late in the day. 

The low pressure center associated with this system will be making the headlines in regard to snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic states northward as Florida will be 'suffering' the repercussions of post cold front blues. But will there be clouds? That is the big question for this day..they would be wrapping around the enlarging low pressure system as it pulls into station on the Mid-Atlantic region.

SUNDAY:  "Down we Go" plummets the mercury. Perhaps yet colder than this past event at least in regard to the wind chill factor realm.

Lows Sunday from Dead Central Northward tickling the freezing mark (far north) or mid-upper 30Fs, too hard to say for sure but lower 40Fs appears to be a given at least. Gusting winds over 25mph won't help.

Such conditions might well reach the immediate beaches as well north of  Sebastian Inlet.   

In short, there isn't much anything respectable to say for this coming weekend temperature wise and perhaps even cloud wise (Saturday).

HOWEVER QUICK RECOVERY COME MONDAY:

Much warmer (though not exactly 'warm') but we'l take what we can get.

MEANWHILE: Next storm system approaches in the 27th Time Frame (Wednesday next week). 

Again as details change over time and from run to run the forecasts will as well, but at time the next system again appears might be a 'strong -severe risk carrier' featuring some form of a squall line in typical El Nino fashion. 

Though this is well far out in time, there might be silver-lining to this system. 

It's not shown so far to be  carrying the burden to Florida of unusually cold air, and is followed also by a string of warmer days. rather than shall we say, one? 

Very Cool to Cold Through Sunrise Wednesday - Rain/Storms on Friday Afternoon

Coldest East Coast Morning in Quite Some Time - 43.8F on Location

 TODAY: As advertised, we've entered the coldest 24 hour stretch today since last winter with another cold to colder start some locations on Wednesday morning. NW wind today becoming north late and decreasing late in the day with highs in the mid-upper 50Fs except in the lower-mid 60Fs closer to and south of Lake Okeechobee. Cirrus clouds should be falling south slowly but surely with time with Central and North being all but cleared out or nearly so by sunset or shortly thereafter

TONIGHT: Decreasing wind as high pressure passes to the north of the state. Very Dry! Dewpoints are expected to fall potentially below 20F in some interior/western locations. Large temperature spreads by daybreak from immediate coast near Cape Canaveral and south through The Keys vs west of I-95.

WEDNESDAY: Possibly colder than this morning in some locations but less wind. Tomorrow morning looks like an Agricultural or temperature forecasters nightmare. With such low dewpoints how low can it go and for how long? Will there be enough moisture for a potentially damaging frost especially Interior North Central to down along Route 27 possibly as far south as northern Polk County? Probably not a big threat - but it will be interesting to see what occurs overnight tonight down the spine of the state and toward the west a bit. The other fly in the ointment is if higher clouds start to creep back north again as far north as Dead Central. It's going to be close on the frost forecasting end tonight it sure appears but suspect we'll be hearing about it..especially toward Western Orlando , North Tampa Bay area and then all areas further north.

Otherwise, immediate beach ( as in near A1A ) and east thereof and south to Miami through the Keys will be the warmest locations. Beaches of Brevard for example might be similar to this morning but by first appearance might be nearly 5F or more degrees warmer than this morning. It'll be tight though. 

Temperature just in from the coast rapidly falls out in the drier air. Air nearest the beaches might be feeling the effect of impending onshore flow and rapid air mass modification waiting in the wings right after sunrise. It'll all come down there to the location of high pressure to the north at the time of sunrise.

Wednesday afternoon warmer with highs 7-10F degrees warmer than today. Mainly lower to mid 60Fs.

THURSDAY: Warmer yet still all locations morning through sunset with highs in the mid-upper 60Fs with much increased moisture across the boards. Next storm system approaches as it builds momentum. Another Jet Streak dropping south from Canada along the Rockies takes the turn over Northern Texas and points toward Florida as the Southern Jet Streak's tail end continues across the state in El Nino fashion..

FRIDAY: Cold front approaches for what appears ATTM (at time) as a mid-afternoon arrival over Central Florida. Moisture return is shown to increase quickly overnight Thursday through time of front's arrival as the Two Jet Streaks start to merge nearly right over the state. Warm with highs in the 70Fs.

Friday's system will in no  way carry the weight of the previous system in regard to directional wind shear, though they winds aloft will get strong down to the 10.000 foot level they will be 'nearly' unidirectional (from the same direction) with height. So far using the NAM as the worst case scenario, though GFS will likely come in with much less dynamics at play especially in regard to CAPE (instability). Hard to see how much deep moisture could return so quickly as what the NAM alludes to (as of this morning at least).

Given the latest NAM, the forecast blog scenario is as follows for a brief window of opportunity.. or might say, 'window of misfortunality'...for strong storms across Central Florida if the timing doesn't change on the fronts arrival time.

 Otherwise, rain showers still likely in many areas which could carry some very gusty winds (which suspect might end up being what occurs anyway)

BEYOND: Quick frontal passage with strong wind behind the boundary through Saturday. Suspect we might be hearing about Lake Wind Advisories.

Saturday morning cold but how cold? Latest GFS implies a cloud deck wraps in at the lower mid-levels behind the front as a now full blown low pressure system slides up the U.S East Coast. The same low that is already putting the folks along the Mid-Atlantic to the Eastern Northeast States in a dizzy with the snow forecast expectancies. 

The main effect being a very cold, windy, and cloudy day with highs in the 50Fs but the cloud deck in regard to the morning hours would prevent lows from bottoming out as much as could be (assuming there will be said cloud deck).

SUNDAY: Could be even colder than today by several degrees. Jury is still out, but the GFS last came out showing upper 30Fs even for the east coast north of Sebastian Inlet with a bitter wind chill. This too might well change though given how far out in time we've come (Extended) by now.