Storms Possible Saturday / Much Cooler Monday / Watching Easter Weekend

Early Morning Paddle Boarding (Tuesday)

TODAY: Frontal boundary toward the Florida/GA boarder could result in some thunderstorms, with most activity remaining near and north of I4. Considerable thin high and some mid level clouds could work across the state from time time throughout the day. Highs like the past few days tempered by the cloud cover and closer to the coast much cooler in the afternoon with east coast sea breeze. There 'might' be some showers as far south as Central per model guidance (like the short range HRRR model , but suspect this might materialize mainly as increased cloud cover)

SATURDAY: The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) is outlining a marginal risk of severe storms mainly along and north of I4 to as far south as the Mim's area in North Brevard County though this might be modified to a bit further south in time so for blog purposes will refrain from including in post beyond that for now. Regardless, though there could even be a chance of a shower as far south as Central Florida today (Friday) the much better chance for rain or even thunderstorms appears will be sometime Saturday/Saturday evening south of I4 toward north of Lake Okeechobee.

SUNDAY:  Frontal boundary to drop south to Central Florida and yet further south during the first half of the day followed by much cooler NW winds - - the harbinger of much cooler air (well below 'normal') for a few days. No truly 'windy' conditions are expected with the boundary like previous fronts just a few weeks ago.

MONDAY: Much cooler with highs in the lower-mid 60Fs and lows in the upper 40Fs to mid 50Fs (Southeast Florida coast).

TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY: Though continued cool not AS cool with highs eventually reaching back to the mid-upper 70Fs by Wednesday afternoon as winds swing from North (Monday) around to southeast (Wednesday).

BEYOND: Watching GFS trends. Last two runs show potential for strong/severe storms anytime from around Good Friday through Easter Weekend and well into the following week. Granted given the extended time frame and discontinuity between various model outputs in regard to both timing/strength at this point only a heads up with all the Easter Morning sunrise services which would be at play on the 27th.

Mid- 80Fs Through Wednesday East Side - Chance of Showers/Thunder East Central Later Today

Seeing Warm and Sunny Days Ahead

TODAY: Remains of frontal boundary (mainly some increased moisture) with cool temperatures aloft and chance of east coast sea breeze / overcast cloud shadowing (north) merger could result in thunder mainly Volusia/Brevard/Osceola Counties (but not exclusively) later today. 

Otherwise, warmer toward the east side of the state where this part of the state has been 'missing out' on the warmer afternoon high temperatures due to cooler sea breezes blowing off upper 60Fs water temperatures. 

With a more SW to SSW wind for at least the first parts of the afternoon they will be able to rise nicely into the low - mid 80Fs.

BEYOND: Monday - Thursday

Little change in the wind fields at the surface but decreasing moisture will reduce rain chances to near zero except maybe some showers South Central/South on Monday. Otherwise, continued warm with morning lows in the mid-upper 60Fs and highs in mid 80Fs though wouldn't be surprised to see some upper 80Fs interior toward the east side almost anywhere.

Next rain chance though slim might be Thursday as moisture begins to increase. Temperatures cool off by Friday as frontal boundary washes out across 'Central Somewhere'. So far thunderstorms do not look to be in the equation , as of now, with that boundary though cloud cover and shower chances do work in (Friday and/or Saturday especially).

Few Rain Chances - Temperatures At to Above Normal Toward Mid - March

TODAY- WEEKEND: A frontal boundary will be passing down the state today from north to south crossing Central Florida near sunset. Warm today even with some high clouds though not as warm as it would've been otherwise. Highs in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs though some mid-80Fs possible South Central regions . No rain forecast with the front . Wind to switch to NW with frontal passage and become more northerly overnight.

Though it will be a bit cooler Thursday morning another rapid - fire system passing well to the north will lift what is left of the boundary back to the north with more southerly winds entering the picture by Thursday afternoon already! Warm again then as a result. The next front then approaches Thursday evening early Friday with more cloud cover and maybe a spritz  north of Central mainly. All in all - rain chances remain negligible to non-existent other than a quick light shot but it looks to be rather remote. 

 Though some mornings will be a bit cooler than others, for the most part the immediate coast will receive in flux of warmer air from over the nearby waters (water temperatures off the Cape are running around 68F ..)..but warmer yet still near-shore from West Palm and South. 

Net Result: Apart from the above stated, no rain chances through next Wednesday as stout high pressure to the north of Florida results in easterly wind gradually becoming more Southeast and increasing a bit as it gradually moves east of the mid-Atlantic region. 

Mornings could well be in the mid-upper 60Fs (above normal) from Sunday on through late week next week at least.

The next storm system is shown to approach around the March 12th time frame with varying results depending on the extended range model runs - all in all - it is pointless to project that far out given the lack of consistency.   

Looks like a big severe weather event will be in the wings for people from the Eastern Southern Plains though into parts of the Southeast States (at least those areas) but what affects will occur most anywhere, especially Florida, will remain unsaid.

The only thing that looks most certain is the lack of any cold air intrusions whatsoever for quite some time.

Showers Today - Storms Some Strong/Severe Possible Wednesday Before Cold Air Moves In

TUESDAY MORNING , CAPE CANAVERAL FL

TODAY: Weak impulse has been moving north and east from far SW Florida since before day break. Plenty of cloud cover and some showers associated with this activity as can be seen below. 

Expect that at least in part some of this activity will approach Central and East Florida by mid-afternoon. Showers could begin to pop up randomly almost any where in isolated fashion. At this point thunder not really anticipated but it is possible mainly just west of I-95 toward US1 from Brevard County and north but the main thrust will be showers.  Blog will run 'conservative' on the thunder chances today not to so it is not possible though in an even broader area than shown below.

Warm today with highs in the upper 70Fs through lower 80Fs. Might be a mid-80F but cloud cover would mitigate that potential.

WEDNESDAY: Over night tonight there is a threat of Severe Weather in The Florida Panhandle mainly from near Tallahassee and west. Latest HRRR suggests the chance of a Significant Tornado in this area or at least at good 'chance' of severe weather.

By well after midnight toward mid-morning activity associated with the front might dwindle quite a bit but then begin to ramp up again mid-late morning. Wind SW and gusty and quite warm especially from I-4 and south with highs in the mid 80Fs possible.T

Though any storm chances at time actually have been showing per NAM guidance to be rather slim to none, the wind/temperature atmospheric profiles suggest that any storm that can form could be at least marginally severe toward severe almost anywhere. The 'red risk' zone is chosen as this is the region of best 'stacked wind' profiles from the low to upper atmospheric levels.

Taking the 'worst case scenario' little change was made from yesterday's post . Again, there is always the chance that there will be very little activity as most of the energy with the associated low pressure system will have lifted well north of Florida heading toward the Northeast States.

As noted previously, if possible might want to watch news tonight but more so have a local channel ready for live coverage should conditions warrant after 11AM tomorrow since chances are things could change quite a bit around mid-morning tomorrow any way in regard to what latest and later day models will show.

Most rain chances will end before dark Central Florida and more likely by around 4:30PM on Wednesday.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY MORNING: Much colder and breezy especially Thursday with wind gradually tapering of with each day. 

Coldest morning appears will be Saturday morning still mainly iinland north of I4 though many areas will experience lower-mid 40Fs but upper 40Fs closer to the Central Florida East Coast and then further south. 

Gradual warm up Sunday afternoon toward upper 60Fs to near 70F but other days will struggle to get much above 65F if even that. 

One or two days might barely eke out 60F but again, not sure the GFS model can be trusted in the high temperature forecast given the time of year as the sun angle is increasing bit by bit every day and days are getting longer noticeably.

MONDAY - MIDWEEK: Another storm system approaching toward the 3RD, and so far not looking to be a ' sig.' weather maker though given little change in the large scale synoptic scale 'rhythms' would not be surprised to see at least 2 more severe weather threats in the next 2 weeks.

Risk Of Marginally - Severe Storms North/Central Wednesday - Much Cooler for Several Days

Sunrise , Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Warming and moistening trend continues through Wednesday afternoon with highs inland toward 80F today but closer to mid-upper 70Fs right at the beaches. Southeast - South wind this afternoon with increasing moisture mainly toward the east side of the state south of I-4. Chance of a light sprinkle from Southwest Florida toward the east coast of Brevard/Indian River much later today if not toward mid-evening (or merely increased cloud cover).

TUESDAY: Warmer with highs in many areas in the upper 70Fs - low 80Fs. Low pressure forming over SW Texas will begin to strengthen and RAPIDLY at that in the next 24-72 hours as it moves east then NE-NNE near the Appalachian chain bringing the whole gamut of weather variables with it along and ahead of it's trek up and down the eastern seaboard and the Smoky Mountains all the way up to Maine and back west toward the Great Lakes Region. This low pressure system is going to be HUGE.

For Florida, chance of showers and 'maybe' a thunderstorm toward Brevard/Volusia County late in the date due to convergence along the east coast us upper level winds begin to increase significantly with cold air aloft, though the surface based instability is so far forecast to be quite meager. 

Better chance of thunder might end up being offshore, but regardless even a good shower could contain surprisingly gusty winds in and near such activity some time after 2-3PM toward dark if they are able to materialize. The bigger story though will be warm temperatures even if cloud cover is present.

WEDNESDAY: Warm with highs in lower - mid 80Fs depending on cloud cover with a very breezy SW wind. 

Frontal boundary from attendant CYCLO-BOMBING low pressure system it now appears (rapid decrease in central pressure) will move across the state from early day through mid-late afternoon.

 Instability on the GFS model guidance is not shown to be but meager but much more per the NAM. Given the wind fields and temperatures aloft will highlight regions between the purple lines as having a chance of severe wind gusts (or more) with the better chance near to north of I-4. Have included south of I-4 as suspect better instability might be found there given the later point in time of day and storms 'might' be moving in as well as that winds are sufficient aloft for such type of activity. 

Any rainfall totals should be low and so far looking at less than an inch of even less than 1/2" due to quick storm motion. 

SPC  (The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK) and local NWS Offices are monitoring the situation and local news stations I suspect will begin to CHIME IN by early afternoon Wednesday if not sooner if conditions warrant. 
(for the previous event Channel 7 , WFTV in Orlando, had good coverage as did Channel 13).

THURSDAY-SUNDAY MORNING: Much cooler to cold mornings.

 Friday and Saturday mornings look to be the coldest with lows in the 40Fs and maybe some upper 30Fs inland/north with afternoons barely eking out 60F though the GFS might be over-estimating how cold the afternoons will be given the sun angle is becoming increasingly higher and days are getting longer. 

Saturday now looks to be the overall coldest day as at least one if not two additional frontal boundaries could transparently move through with no effects other than to re-enforce the lower temperature regime that will be put in place for several days. 

Cat on a Concrete Path

This upcoming system is the Second of a kind (from the one last week) and thoughts are now we might be seeing another one rearing it's stormy thunderheads in about a week after this one; though too soon to say,  the trend seems to be on and they often come in threes. 

Looking at the latest GFS now coming out as I type, indeed, it is showing another system late next Wednesday and/or Thursday time frame. 

Otherwise, all should be nearly dry after Wednesday afternoon for quite a number of days but very cool to cold until Sunday afternoon.

Risk of Late Day Shower Monday/Tuesday - Strong/Marginally Severe Wednesday

"Portuguese Man-o-War Season Appears to be in Bloom Along the East Coast "

TODAY- MONDAY: Light wind becomes progressively more southerly with time with cool mornings and normal temperatures in the 70Fs range. Slight chance of a very isolated shower or only an increase in late day cloud coverage on Monday. There is a very stealthy dry layer from about 700mb - 500 mb above the ground which will take quite a bit of time to fill in with sufficient moisture.

TUESDAY: Frontal boundary and evolving  "cyclobomb' low pressure system might be to evolve in the Deep South to head Northeast in coming days which will be a headline maker in regard to who will or won't receive snow from the system. 

Further south a cold front will stretch  into the Gulf of Mexico and chances are a warm front of sorts will lift  north by Tuesday afternoon from south to north across Florida putting the state squarely in the 'warm sector' south of the boundary. 

There is a chance on this day (with highs in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs) that a late afternoon to early evening shower or even some thunder might occur this day mainly Brevard County and south and then much further north as well toward the Panhandle region and along I-10 to the east.

WEDNESDAY: Chance as of latest two model runs and as noted in the previous post some time ago of strong to marginally severe storms. 

Worth watching though in case it appears that perhaps even a better chance of severe storms might evolve. 

Chances are all news stations will start to herald the alert mode in the next 48 hours though if the trend in the model output continues on its current trend.

 Unlike the last events of yore, this time it will be occurring (or not occurring if that ends up being the case)..in daylight hours to near or after sunset. More to tell along those lines come Monday and Tuesday though.

It was on February 22- 23RD 1998 that the worst tornado outbreak in Central Florida history occurred during the overnight hours.

THURSDAY-BEYOND: Wave goodbye to a supposed early 'spring' as temperatures to fall back into winter mode for a few days. 

Not at all unusual this time of year as the sun angle is higher and higher in the sky but the colder and dense area further north refuses to find it's final resting place back around the poles for another 2 1/2 months at least . 

Especially given what appears to be a persist deep upper trough over Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. associated with what is referred to as a Negative Phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (or -NAO) . El Nino southern jet streak still soaring overhead the Deep South and at times Florida is to continue which helps to up the ante on severe threats. 

(Side Bar: Forecasts indicate El Nino will be long gone by the time June rolls around if not by August).

***Much colder Thursday morning and afternoon and WINDY Thursday, but especially Friday through Saturday mid morning is when the 'coldest' of air will find its way in after a secondary frontal boundary slices through.

Gradual  warm up by SUNDAY and especially next Monday.

Potential For Strong to Severe Storms Will Exist After 8PM , Warm on Tuesday

   "Fillmore"

TODAY-OVERNIGHT: There will be the potential for strong to even severe storms late tonight through around 4-5AM Tuesday morning though location of such storms and timing is very difficult at time to determine due to   model run inconsistencies and little agreement between different models, notwithstanding uncertainty in a wide variety of ways. 

All guidance does bring a number of factors into the play in the wind fields with very cold air aloft such as near -15C at 500mb (20000ft) which is unusual for Central Florida almost any time of year. Shearing wind profiles both in direction and speed combined with ample (but barely ample) instability (which is a big factor that might reduce the severe chance to near zero) is a big question as is any real drive (reason) for discrete storm formation.

The more 'organized' part of the pattern set up passes across the Panhandle region earlier on in the form of a broken sort of squall line which might die off as it gets toward Tallahassee region in the early evening hours.

FURTHER SOUTH: Chance of showers and who knows, maybe a thunder across parts of mainly South Central to Central Florida moving up and out from the south to southwest then offshore, possibly as soon as mid afternoon up through near sunset.

NOTE: THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INCLUDES ALL OF NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL
MIGHT NEED TO WATCH TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTH OF FT. LAUDERDALE
AS WELL AS NEAR TH PORT CHARLOTTE AREA

THE BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS though is after the 10PM through around 4AM though this could change. There is a chance that few of any areas will even get severe weather or, in fact, any rain at all. Chances are things will become a bit more clear by mid-late afternoon what the evening and over-night have to bring, so s would advise keeping at least one ear leaning toward local news channels either during the dinner or bed times hours.

TUESDAY: Regardless of what does or does not occur late today or tonight, there is agreement that the 'All Clear' can be heralded before sunrise with clearing conditions probably even before sunrise. Tuesday looks to be a warm one with a cold front still to come toward sunset for Central Florida and then the remainder of the state after dark. Highs could reach mid-upper 70Fs many areas, even some lower 80Fs in a few locations contingent upon cloud coverage.

BEYOND: Though a front will be going through there is not a big temperature change behind it. Even that has been going up and down in the forecasts but best bet for now will be to settle on temperatures running near climatological norms...and considering that lately the CLIMATE has been no where close to LOGICAL lately for Florida (cold temperature wise) any upward climb in the mercury would be warmly welcomed (at least for those who do not prefer colder / cool weather).

There is another front or two to come in the next 8 days but so far (fingers crossed) none of them have that much of a 'shock value' to them in the temperatures. After the recent thread of days and then the other string of them prior, not much will be a cold shock any more. Almost no where to go but up from here on out .

ON THE OTHER HAND: Next POTENTIAL THREAT for SEVERE WEATHER is being shown to be around the 23-25th time frame. That chance showed up a while back..disappeared and has now re-appeared with fairly good consistency over the past 24 hours but it's still nearly 8 -10 days out in time and much can change. Given what I'm seeing now..it is at least worth noting for the time being as the factors that could eventually come into play (if so) would be all too sufficient for severe weather for  someone in the Southeast states and/or along the Gulf Coast, including Florida.

Cool/Windy vs Cold/Breezy Seesaw Pattern Through Wednesday - Rain Chances Today

TODAY: Very sketchy in the details today which will make or break areas in the rain chance (or rainfall totals) arena mainly fast East Central and Southward into interior portions thereof. 

Pre-sunrise temperatures across the state are running along an   anomaly of cooler air in a region such as say interior Dade County than the A1A strip of Brevard County as can be seen in the graphic below. Remember those warmer regions as those might well be where the better chances of rainfall (especially after 5PM will begin later today) might occur toward and after dark.

State Temperatures (at 2 meters AGL) at 5AM show  warmer going from west to East as
opposed to North to South

LATER TODAY: Wind should die down some after sunrise as a low pressure area  forms along the inverted trough exemplified by the temperature and wind profiles shown above. Exactly where and when this will turn into a closed circulation will affect who sees measurable rains today (if any) and who does not. 

It is also noted that where it is warmest now at sunrise will also be the warmest locations all day today for the most part, mainly from east of Orlando and south to around all of South Florida south of The Big Lake, progressively cooler toward the west coast even this afternoon.  

From the west, mid-level low pressure system moving east and north will usher in a vigorous upper level wind field pattern with more than sufficient Bulk Shear and even  helicity (north half) for severe storms; however, instability will be close to non-existent so no concern in those regards. 

On the other hand, with such wind energy aloft coincident with the low forming 'somewhere' along to just east of the South Half of the State, rain chances should increase as those winds aloft move over the state late today into early through late evening. 

Could hear some thunder mainly east of Ft Pierce and South out toward the Bahamas and maybe a rumble aloft as far north as off shore Cape Canaveral, but it will be the "rain chances on the increase" that is primary element for today's composition. 

Totals could vary from none to as much as 1/2" or more depending on where the low sets up later today by the time all is said and done (before sunrise Sunday).

SAMPLE ONLY of what might evolve by early evening.
Noting best chance for measurable rainfall might also be where it is
generally warmest at sunrise this morning . Yellow bounds
indicate where rain fall is also possible.
Best chance though timing wise will be after 5pm - 1AM.

Otherwise, apart from the rain chance today,  the  theme through Wednesday will be cooler to colder temperatures and breezy to down right windy at times through Wednesday.

SUNDAY: Rain chances exit well east before sunrise with cold air advection in full throttle with gusting morning and afternoon wind from the Northwest. 

Mixing  with cold air advection and cleared skies might make for gusts above 25 mph for a time with highs barely eking out of the lower - mid 50F's on Sunday; dying off a bit Sunday night toward Monday morning.

MONDAY: Will watch for a 'cold socket' across Central Florida interior. Wind lighter by far   interior but not so much along the immediate east coast as the strengthening low pressure now far from the state lifts up the U.S. east coast (off shore). Some guidance has been showing upper 30Fs into South Central Florida away from the coasts but warmer than that to the north. Example would be colder inland of Stuart than inland of Daytona Beach.

Another front will be on the way however, overnight Tuesday.

TUESDAY: Breezy to windy at times during the day after a cool start but not quite as cold as Monday morning with highs in the lower-mid 60Fs . 

Wind from the west if not even SW for a time. No rain chances though and probably not many clouds but for a brief period (maybe overnight).  Front to move across the state swiftly after dark.

WEDNESDAY: Monday was the first colder morning, Wednesday will be the next colder morning with the frontal passage going on while most sleep - a bit breezy at that as well. Highs lower than on Tuesday as a result, closer to the way it will be on Sunday.

Pod of Pelicans Soars Past During a Dramatic Florida Sunrise  

THURSDAY-BEYOND: The windy and very cool to a bit cold seesaw shenanigans end Thursday morning as the last of the family of fronts will have cleared the area. 

Slowly moderating temperatures into the weekend with easterly flow becoming established. 

Forecasts will likely be speaking of lows in the lower - mid 50Fs (mainly inland) and highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs for a number of days to follow, though with the prolonged onshore flow and vertical depth of it over time , showers will come back into the picture by Monday or Tuesday (but light and low topped) , maybe even  for a number of days ..or perhaps it will amount only to decks of stratocumulus clouds. Too far out in time to know.

No severe weather or even a cold fronts for that matter seen for a decent stretch of time,  maybe a good 4 days at least from Thursday through the weekend and into the beginning of the following week.

Cool, Cold, and Colder into All of Next Week

Wednesday Surprise Sunrise

TODAY: Not much to really be said today through the upcoming week once we squeegee past today.

Cold front on the slide through the Panhandle this morning producing rain and some thunder near the Gulf Coast. The boundary will slide northeast-ward as it progressively sinkingly progresses east and south with time slowly but surely toward Central Florida late this evening.

Chance of rain showers, lighter but lingering rain, and some thunder possibly even with a few stronger wind gusts this afternoon to early evening North and parts of North Central. 

This graphic might even be generous though might need to watch the Dead Central Region for a trend per the previous blog post the other day for a better thunder chance. Only change this post was to shift the 'thunder chance' a bit further north though that might have been hasty. It all depends on how quickly the boundary reaches Central. The slower it is the less chance of Thunder near the Dead Central demarcation zone.

 

BEYOND: Nothing much to say. As noted in previous post there was a chance that another low pressure area could end up forming near the East Coast of Florida and move away which would have little effect, or it would form well to the west of the State which could result in a Severe Weather chance. 

The former option over the past 48 hours has been winning out so will ride with no chance of Severe Weather come late Saturday or Sunday though there will be a period of increased cloud cover and maybe some light rains.

The bigger story through the upcoming week beginning  Friday morning will be 

A. Cool to even rather Cold Temperatures;
B.  at times combined with Wind

After the boundary's passage the cooler air will mostly work in well toward Sunrise and mid Morning Friday making for a very breezy and very cool day considering recent days like yesterday tying some record high temperatures in a few locations. 

Though not 'real cold' it will be quite cool. Another 'low' to form near South Florida but extremely weak in nature could create another shower chance sometime over the weekend but the bigger storm will be as it strengthens over the Gulf Stream waters while pulling away toward the northeast.  

Circulation behind it plus high pressure building in from the west will draw colder air south, down, and across  the peninsula of Florida in repeated various modes in coming days.

SUNDAY MORNING  for example will be the real first day of such but the theme continues as consecutive 'reinforcements' in the form of 'short -wave troughs come across from time time only to further exasperate the situation.

By perhaps Wednesday - Friday mornings we might be hearing talks of freeze warning for parts of North Central Florida or at least wind chill advisories. 

Some days will never see 60F, but other days will see lower to maybe mid 60Fs with a west wind which might be refreshing, especially when keeping in mind that within another month the consecutive days of cold to even very cool weather will be drawing to a close . 

Overall,   westerly to NW winds more than anything else after Sunday, dry and cool to even cold a few days. 

No point in saying much more than the change out from the described should begin sometime next weekend.

Rockin' to the 80Fs (Tuesday) - Chance of Rain/Thunder Late Wednesday/Thursday

Sunrise Sunday Morning Upon Cocoa Beach

TODAY: High cloud canopy clearing from north to south such that by the time one reads this post Central Florida and all of The North will have already cleared. 

There remains a mid-level pocket of moisture (and clouds) that guidance implies will be on the way out heading toward the hours of 1-3PM. Low level moisture will increase a bit though, but overall we'll see more sun today it so appears with highs in the mid 70Fs for the most part.

TUESDAY: Easterly to eventually southeast wind. This day appears to be the Finest of all in regard to warmth and least cloud cover with highs reaching the lower to maybe a mid 80F well west of I-95 with the immediate coasts remaining in the mid-upper 70Fs depending on how far north one traverses and how close to the ocean one is. Ocean temperatures are only in the mid 60Fs off Canaveral and even cold further north but warmer toward Ft Pierce and south due to the proximity of the warmer Gulf Stream waters.

WEDNESDAY: High clouds again surge northward in advance of an approaching cold front. The attendant low pressure center from this front will be forming near the Four Corners region today and tomorrow and move east then NE toward Nova Scotia. As such, not much torque to slice the front right through but rather it will be a bit of a dragged out process. 

By the time the front reaches Dead Central from a line near Tampa to Melbourne, FL later on Thursday  the low pressure is nearly in the North Atlantic off Nova Scotia (as opposed to prior frontal passages with the low (for instance) moving off the Carolinas).  

Best chance of rain and maybe some thunder will be near and north of I-4, though it is possible that as far south as a line from near Melbourne to South Tampa Bay region and north could get into some late day rain showers as well.

THURSDAY: Chance of showers and maybe some thunder (maybe even an isolated strong storm but not going into that on this post though temperatures aloft and sufficient bulk shear imply some winds gusting toward 50 mph is always possible) will be along and south of a line from near Ormond Beach to Cedar Key...and north of a line  running from near Vero Beach toward Sarasota (see graphic below). Best chance of  thunder appears to be about 40 miles either side of a line running from Tampa to Cape Canaveral.

FRIDAY: Front to rapidly clear with the colder air to follow. This front is going through a bit like in November fashion earlier in the season meaning a quick turnaround to Northeast winds post frontal passage with quickly modifying air mass. Highs on Friday in the 60Fs and breezy...likely cloud cover will accompany the wind as well...especially by Saturday when some showers might be added to the mix.

BEYOND: Next chance of a Bout of Severe Weather begins to Emerge as Soon as Sunday over the Gulf of Mexico. 

After the frontal passage on Thursday a region of 500mb energy down through the lower levels will already be crossing North Mexico moving east. Vorticity from the front remains strung out across Central Florida and back nearly the whole way to connect with the next system approaching in the mid-upper levels from the West. 

As that Disturbance rides along the boundary the GFS hedges on kicking up at least one surface low in the Central Gulf to move east northeast to northeast going into the Sunday/Monday time frame.

This might well change though as it is still a good week out. Guidance has been bouncing around on this 'notion' for days now already.

 One option has been for a very weak low to spin up east of the state which would mean nothing to Florida..but if it spins up well to the west of the state and moves east..different story.  Latest implies a "Marginal - Slight Severe Risk" of Severe Weather Late Sunday/Mid-Day Monday Time Frame for North and Central Florida . The usual caveat already being also suggested (Low CAPE / high shear environment). 

We'll be staying tuned to this potentially evolving situation though - for now, just a heads up as again -- at this point in time it's nothing more than an itchin'.

Marginal Risk of Brief Severe - Record Rainfall Totals Exceeded 2 1/4 - 4 " For Date

Search for the Catch of the Day

TODAY: One more day of off and on again rain (some areas much more 'on' than 'off) with a 'Marginal Risk' (in Storm Prediction Center (SPC) terms) mainly South Central - South of severe wind gusts and/or brief tornado. More rainfall records could fall. A few official reporting locations reported record rainfall totals for the date yesterday from Vero to Southwest Florida to West Palm though certainly other 'non-official' areas likely broke  records as well - those will go left unknown forever since no recorded logs exist for those areas.

OTHERWISE: One more Jet Speed max of 140kts is approaching Florida now approaching the South Central Gulf. Greatest instability will remain from near Lake Okeechobee and south. There appears to be two boundaries. One located in that area and a bit of a pseudo-version of it to stretch from near Tampa toward Port St. John to develop by noon time or so n the helicitiy fields. Forecast discussions are hitting on South and South Central (Miami even) ; however, latest guidance of 2AM is indicating a secondary area creeping northward toward "Dead Central" by noon time to be 'of effect' possibly through 3pm. That areas (south of the purple line below) would lack sufficient instability it appears at this time but will give it a heeding regardless).

Latest HRRR radar simulations are indicating some briefly stronger but very tiny pin-prick returns near Tampa and Canaveral area in general from late morning through early afternoon whereas South Florida by that time has little going on at all. Thus, a bit mystified at the current trend since 5AM that was not in place at the time some forecast discussions were being released.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Front to clear most of state other than South Florida by around mid-night or shortly thereafter with quick clearing of skies by Friday.

Friday will have brisk NW winds with a high barely eking into the lower 60Fs but at least it should be mostly sunny except South Florida where some high jet stream cirrus clouds might be in place.

SATURDAY: Very cool with decreasing wind  this morning with lows ranging from the mid-40Fs inland areas (Central and North) to near the 50F to mid 50Fs mark immediate East Coast Canaveral and South (warmest South Florida). 

Highs in mid-60Fs with light wind by afternoon. Saturday appears to be a very pleasant day apart from the chance of the veil of high cirrus clouds which will begin to clone themselves northward across most all areas south of I-4 and further north with time.

SUNDAY: Not quite as cool in the morning with a high in the lower 70Fs unless cirrus cloud cover is too much. Best chance of warmest temps well inland from the east coast north of West Palm and all of South Florida as winds will by then be southeast.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Warm with highs approaching the lower 80Fs South Florida and Orlando area and west well away from the east coast where Atlantic water temperatures are in the lower-mid 60Fs. Don't know if we'll be hearing talk like "near record highs  possible" yet but it appears that might be possible. 

Next chance of rain emerges on Wednesday with the next front.  

Beyond this next front we might see a day or two of more 'Winter Like" temperatures reminiscent of our previous cold weather event but not for as along a duration   with a  limited coverage area as well. But as it is now, it could get cold again for a brief time. 

Additional potentially severe weather set ups are not being seen in the long-range forecast for the time being. 

All's clear! 

Chance of Iso-Strong Storms - Possible Large Rainfall Totals Wednes Thurs Day

TODAY: Little change in forecast philosophy from previous post. Model guidance yet has come to closely sync up despite that 'said upcoming event' is less than 24 hours away (through 60 hours).

Some east coast showers have materialized lifting north as ingredients slowly come together during the remainder of the day into the over-night. Nose of 120 knot southern stream jet across the Gulf Mexico approaches Florida as mid-upper level impulses move across the Mexican Altiplano and Rio Grande Valley (RCV) regions.  Additionally, it appears another player might work in lifting north and east from the Yucatan Channel. 

Line of thinking is it is this impulse (if so) that would be the most responsible for any severe weather come early - late morning Wednesday for Southwest Florida to parts of the east coast any where from Sarasota and south through The Keys and up the east coast toward Cape Canaveral from the hours of 5AM - 11AM (from southwest to northeast with time).

WEDNESDAY: As noted above chance of an isolated storm, possible producing a quick tornado but otherwise some large rainfall totals. Storms do not appear they will necessarily be moving real fast unlike the previous events. There are other factors at play such as isentropic upglide and other terms which we'll leave out from discussion's sake, but be it so...adequate moisture and retreating warm air lifting north and over-running as as a bit of a wamr front forms.... combined with colder air aloft and increasing dew point air at the surface into the mid-60Fs with shearing winds (though not as strong as previous event) combined with difficult to time mid-upper level impulses either from the south (Wednesday) or west (late Wednesday through Thursday) adds up to a chance of the chance of some rather large rainfall accumulations for this time of years  going into Thursday if not even Thursday night as well.

NOTE: This would not be a 'continuous rainfall event'..there might well be a long break in any potential action from the first parts of Wednesday toward Wednesday evening (or other times as well).

Better chances so far for stronger storms appears to be first parts of Wednesday then again well after dark to just past midnight Wednesday night - Thursday as a second wave of disturbances approaches Florida from the west. 

But, again, timing and location of said disturbances is uncertain as is the degree of available convective potential energy. 

Like last  nearly CAPE-less events, instability has been lacking and this upcoming situation appears to be no different, though there might be more available than there was for these last 'forecast threat' before we had that cold spell along either the west of east coast or both of them for that matter.

THURSDAY: Again, more chances of rainfall but timing and locations are near impossible to determine without better guidance consistency. There is a chance as graphic implied that some locations might see in excess of 2-3" of rain when all is said and done, whereas some other areas might see 1/2" or less. It will depend mainly on where disturbances cross the state, but slower storm motions should allow rainfall totals to add up to more efficient rain gauge fillers this go around.

FRIDAY: Regardless of which model we look at, there appears to be consensus that all is pretty much said and done by around midnight Thursday night to before sunrise Friday.  Clearing on Friday and cooler with breezy NW winds with highs in the lower- mid 60Fs.

WEEKEND: Breezy at first and quite cool though not like our previous event. Lows in the mid-upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs and highs generally in the lower-mid 60Fs on Saturday but warming on Sunday.


Though Sunday will start out cool, by now we are getting a bit acclimated to the colder air and besides, it'll warm into the upper 60Fs at least by Sunday afternoon as wind already begins to swing around to southerly again.

WARMER MONDAY - THURSDAY afternoons with highs in the 70Fs and some lower 80Fs in a few locations. Dry as finally temperatures will average out to above climo.

Frosty Start to Week: "Chance of a Risk" of Strong - Severe Storms Wednesday

TODAY: Last of the cold shot being felt this morning as wind has relaxed significantly and temperatures fall in typical fashion down the spine of the state and toward each coast. Frost might even be experienced as far south as Okeechobee this morning, even toward Punta Gorda in various low lying pockets and in the more rural areas though more urbanized areas for example parts of Orlando will remain unfrosted.

After the defrosting, temperature will warm today to the mid-upper 60Fs with light wind .  Compared to the past two days this will be a much welcome change especially after the locals have been toughed up a bit over the past few days. Nothing can touch us now! (Especially as that might have been the coldest period we will have all winter, or so it seems). Climatology says, "We are leaving the coldest time of year by week's end".

Chance that over night  high jet stream cirrus might begin to spread in from the WSW after midnight whilst we are sleeping and thicken a bit toward day break into the afternoon. ...  Tuesday will start out much different than Monday will end cloud cover wise.

TUESDAY:  A bit of a 'warm front' ( though very loosely speaking ) will lift from The South to Central early morning through mid-afternoon. It may be more of an extension of a coastal trough, but regardless some guidance anticipates some isolated shower activity with this boundary from South Central to Central Florida between early morning toward the 1pm time frame from south to north. 

Yet warmer with highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs. Highs might be held into the 60Fs though with the anticipated high clouds to move in. 

Any shower activity will be low topped as most moisture will be in the upper levels and the low levels leaving a dry and broad mid-level layer.


WEDNESDAY: Model discrepancy between the two big players, The ECMWF and GFS. has been on-going for the past 48 and continues even up through the evening runs.  As a result the extended outlook toward Wednesday/Thursday remains a bit of a mystery though rain looks certain for many areas.

 It comes down to a matter of exactly when and if so, how strong and placement of some of the surface features. Given what I'm seeing in the morning NAM combined with the GFS would not be surprised to see a strong to borderline severe storm or two across South Central to Central Florida from early Wednesday toward early afternoon time spreading from west to east as noted below. But if the ECMWF model starts to be the main player, that chance will be ramped up. There has been no consistency this season on which either model has played out as the dominant successor, but the GFS has all in all been doing a fine job, apparently up until this upcoming system (or so it seems).

Either way, would hold to the thought that there is a 'Chance that there will be a Risk of Severe Weather' ...that is to say, a chance of a chance...until models can come into better agreement.

THURSDAY:  GFS consistent at least as per previous post of some post-frontal cloud cover and/or rain fall in the cool air (50Fs) for a short time. Whether that will hold true is yet to be known but suspect it will in some fashion or another. And if so, for how long? 


FRIDAY-SATURDAY; Regardless, will go with whatever is to happen having cleared the entire state (except maybe far South Florida) by Friday. Cooler mornings and afternoons once again with temperatures running a bit below normal but nothing like this last visitation though one or both mornings might be a bit breezy and cold again...lows in the lower- mid 40Fs for Central and bit warmer South seems to be what is implied for now.

IN THE FAR BEYOND: No very cold shots are foreseen into the first week of February, if we can snake through to mid-February any real cold spells would likely be very short lived. On the other hand, though the "El Nino' pattern of late seems to be taking a Sabbatical in some regards, this might be but a lull in the action to draw folks into a false sense of security. Moving into February/March  might once again see more conditions for severe weather events aside from this upcoming Wednesday . February looks to be the most active severe weather month per historical data though March is often thought to be a more active one as well.

Showers to Isolated Brief Strong Storms: Then Coldest of Season Yet Still

Storybook Mid Afternoon Thursday 

TODAY: No real surprises. Anyone who has seen the news or heard media outlets by now will know that there is a chance of a strong storm due to wind gusts or a brief tornado in quickly moving storm activity ahead of advancing cold front today. 

Southerly wind gusting to 20 mph late morning toward early afternoon to become more SSW - SW beyond 1 -2 pm. The time period for North Central and Central for a tornadic type spin-up appears to be from West to East roughly between noon - 2pm as noted in the graphic below. A secondary area toward the Keys and SW Florida might also be worth a heightened level of awareness a bit later in the day. Image below is only a guestimate. As of 5AM the Storm Prediction Center has a 'tornado interest' out for all areas north of the purple line drawn in across Central Florida.

Otherwise, chance of showers emerges between 10:30 - 11:30 AM across parts of South Central to North Central and North Florida both along the front itself and into Central along a quickly evolving pre-frontal trough as higher dewpoint air advances northward ahead of the front and along the trough. 

 The broader 'threat' for today is gusting winds in and near any storms but even in only some rainshowers . In general , apart from SW Florida the main interest will be on strong straight line winds. Any and all weather events will be quite brief but regardless, potentially 'disturbing'.

Front to clear all of North Central toward Central in the 5-6PM Time frame. See below

Best Guess for Cold Front's Position around 5PM

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY: Nothing new here. Rather breezy post frontal passage (FROPA) through Friday night and all of Saturday. Wind from the west gusting upward toward 30mph and much colder with temperatures  Central holding in the lower-mid 50Fs all day. Still watching for at least a broken cloud deck across the sky in the lower levels until at least mid-afternoon if not longer with a few sprinkles here and there if not even showers toward the West Coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT- SUNDAY MORNING:  Coldest / driest intrusion to punch southeast from the panhandle after midnight. Jury is out on just exactly how cold but the NAM model for example now is teetering with the freezing mark in such locations as the Orlando area toward I-95 as far south as South Central Osceola County. 

The immediate beaches from the Cape toward Vero Beach might see anything between 34F - 39F with wind from the NW around 10-15mph as wind will have died off a bit as the parent surface low moves further away and the pressure gradient relaxes. 

The GFS model is not quite as cold however as the NAM , running about 5 degrees warmer particularly toward the east coast.

SUNDAY: Very cool again all day after the coldest morning yet of the winter season but much improved sky and wind conditions. Highs in the mid-upper 50Fs with winds relaxing more and more as the day wears on.

MONDAY: The coldest air on this 'drainage morning' will be closer to the Orlando area and west down I27 toward the Tampa region. The immediate east coast from the Cape and south could well be 10-15F degrees warmer Monday morning than Sunday with light wind. Highs in the lower to mid 60Fs.

BEYOND: Tuesday looks to warm into the 70Fs and to be a very pleasant day 'round the clock. Next front slated for the 27-28th time frame. 

So far, the next front will not be like our previous visitors and might well lollygag a bit before making it's final exit. It will be a very shallow boundary at first.  

For example, on Wednesday the surface front is shown to be running diagonally from NE to SW across North and Central Florida while at only 2000 feet above ground the boundary is still back in the panhandle.

 Looks like a chance of storms though on the 27th well in advance of the front (Central and South)followed potentially by a brief over-running rain period and with very cool temperatures before the colder and drier air finally works south and east going into late week.  Maybe even some thunder mainly Central and South Florida Wednesday afternoon.

THURSDAY: Continued chance of cloud cover and/or some rain even in the post-frontal environment.

BEYOND: Cooler and dry, with very cool to cold morning inland locations. Light wind for several days stringed together. Temps running around 'normal' for this time of year.