Storm (Some Strong in Coming Days) / Rain Shower Chances Continue High For Several Days

Hard Down Pours with Lightning Possible (Storm on June 7, 2017, Cape Canaveral)

TODAY: Along the same lines as previous days, with variations. Today and coming
days will be the 'Baskin Robbins' of rain chances. Each day is the same store, but with a different flavor. Some days 1 scoop, other days up to three . Chances of seeing 'cones' though will be quite slim.

Early - mid morning the atmosphere has already started out unstable, and it will become even more unstable up through early afternoon. Temperatures aloft are a bit cooler on the KSC sounding from yesterday, and if the GFS is correct (The NAM disagrees) the area from Brevard County northward is up for cooling a bit more well aloft into mid-afternoon , which would point to better mid-level lapse rates 'suddenly' some time after 1pm.   

To cut to the chase, a sea breeze 'might' be able to form mainly south of the Cape but if so will stay pegged close to the coast east of I95 if not even US1 at most (best).   

The 'going trend' on the NAM model however has a short but interesting history for today. That being, strong Vertical Velocities along the East Coast of North Central/Central Direct some time after 4pm from the surface all the way up to 20,000 ft. 

With such consistencies , it's best be forewarned of what potentials that could mean. Namely, explosive development resulting in large rainfall totals and frequent lightning (perhaps small hail at the cores?). Maybe not, but regardless, today's prospects are being indicated by the NAM and short fused HRRR model to be "Active' in nature. 

Thus, some areas could see in excess of 2.00" of rain today, with many areas seeing 1/2" - 1.00" (then again, some areas will see little to none as well).

"Bloggers Special" for today with RED ZONE indicating Potential for 'Bigger, Badder Storms"

The Storm Prediction Center's Outlook with Bloggers Addition
(I feel parts of North Florida might be too cloud covered all day to produce 'Marginal Severe" Storms)

Mid-Morning Radar (See note below)

Note: Noting the radar trends and satellite overlay above we can see activity is trending/moving eastward with a slight  leaning north as well. All in all, suspect some of the higher clouds over Central might dissipate as they aren't all 'too extensive even now'. Otherwise, given that the atmosphere is already nearly primed with a Convective Temperature on the KSC sounding of only 87F, we should get an early initiation under way within a few hours. 

With help from the West Coast Sea-breeze and future outflows from showers at large, we might see a good piling up of storms toward East Central late afternoon to dwindle well into the mid-evening hours.  

General time of first impacts for East Coast locations (namely from Brevard Southward could be as soon as 2-3 pm (already in  progress further north) with only widely scattered activity, but as boundaries begin to interact and the West Coast sea-breeze approaches, there might be a rather rapid shift in the overall character of the skies and weather from showers with some lightning to full blown storms in the 4:30-6 time frame.

SUNDAY: No official outlets are calling it, but there appears to be a better risk of 'strong' to 'marginally severe thunderstorms' across most of Central and North Central Florida tomorrow. 
Sunday continues to look like a very active day, but will re-evaluate after tonight.

NEXT WEEK: The upper level low over the Deep South will begin to open up and lift northward Sunday night as another upper trough passes further north across the Great Lakes accompanied by an unusual cold front which will work all the way to the Panhandle of Florida. The two join together as one large trough. Looks impressive for very cool to cold mornings come early next week across nearly the entire nation, save for Florida with the accompanying cold front with these combined systems (!)  

However, on the back side of the what will become an open trough (instead of closed low) comes another Speed Max from the Jet Stream down the trough's backside. This will cause it to 'Dig' further south and essentially result in a similar wind field pattern over Florida for Tuesday- Thursday, maybe even into Friday. 

It's hard to say for certain then what day we specifically have a sensible change (to the outsider) of a Real Pattern Change. Yes, the Pattern is going to change,but for all purposes weather wise it will be relatively unreasonable other than on paper. Although, suspect by mid-week the weather will take on more of a 'summer' feel too it, including more storms and rains. That meaning, less cloud cover earlier in the day. Time will tell.

Sum Total, we might see rainfall totals over 7 inches in some areas when considering All the days already we've had rains, plus those coming up. My location has already had over 2" and we're barely into the Real "Meat and Potatoes' of this synoptic situation that has been heralded to approach, which really will not be until Sunday. It was dry for a while so the soils can handle it, but in a few days we might be talking 'localized flooding issues' in the most prone areas.

Conditional Chance There Will Be Storms Today - Strong Storms Possible Early Next Week

Thunderstorm Approaching Cape Canaveral - June 6, 2019

 YESTERDAY: Things panned out pretty much as thought 'could have occurred' at least
in a few locations. It just so happened to 'occur' at the bloggers location (conveniently).

Rainfall totals around Central Florida varied from Zero to over an inch -even up to 2.00' and more,with the overall largest totals across the Panhandle region.

TODAY: As blog post title infers, the chance for another bout of potential thunderstorms anywhere today is conditional upon a mitigating factor, namely CLOUD COVER. 

A simple glance outside shows that clouds are present over a vast majority of the state, including Central Florida, as does latest visible satellite imagery (below). In monitoring satellite animation trends (and infrared while it was still dark out), it appears that they might be thinning out a bit over some regions, but whether or not the trend will continue or if with a little heating we'll just cloud right back up again is yet to be known. 

This is often an issue when the atmosphere becomes so moisture laden. Forecast guidance can scream 'rain rain rain' but in the end, what we get is 'clouds clouds clouds' instead apart  from other factors other than day time heating and lake/sea breeze boundary interactions to work with, such as vorticity lobes (upper level energy) passing over head and steep mid-level lapse rates.

Temperatures aloft aren't all that cold today but still definitely cold enough with 500mb coming around -6.5C and 700mb around 7.5C   amounting to mildly unstable  with weak lapse rates  , that's three strikes against 'storms' today.

 Model guidance seems to have picked up on the trend too, for example, the short range High Resolution model earlier was calling for storms across much of the east half of the state, but as of 10 AM that risk has all but vanished, for it now shows but mere patches of rain-showers at best other than across the Panhandle.

If per chance we start to get better cloud breaks, that very same model could change it's tune. Point is, IF we can get sufficient clearing across rather a large area, storms would be back once again, and from the looks of it, mostly 'somewhere' for East Central and North Central Florida moving toward the east coast.

WEEKEND: Little change to forecast otherwise. The complex mid-upper level low pressure area which covers several states will shift north and east toward Alabama/Georgia , even North Florida heading toward Monday. Steering from WSW to ENE will increase with plentiful moisture and that combined with lowering upper level temperatures should contribute too to better lapse rates adding for better lifting motion.   The better chance for STRONG storms appears to be Sunday. Like today, Saturday will again be conditional -- though at this point will go with persistence and play the 'good chance of storms' card once again. If not, then more cloud cover. All in all meaning, not such a great weekend for the beach either way you look at it.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: Again, with colder air aloft in the forecast (per the GFS model) as well as ample moisture, apart from cloud cover risks, expect we could see strong storms  up through TUESDAY of next week from Sunday onward,  perhaps even WEDNESDAY. Rainfall totals across all days in some locations, especially across the Panhandle and areas north of I4 could  exceed 4" before all is said and done. Some areas have already received more than 3" in the panhandle.

WHEN DOES THE PATTERN CHANGE? So far, it appears Thursday night going into Friday.
Surface winds and winds aloft become easterly and rain chances significantly decrease for the east coast, though South Central/South Florida might have on one more day (at least that has been the going trend the past few model runs). Whether there might be overnight / early morning shower activity in that location is too soon to say.

Wet Pattern Emerging Today - Strong Storms Possible Saturday-Monday (?)

On This Date, 2018, large Rainfall totals occurred in parts of Brevard County, Including Cape Canaveral

Localized street flooding

TODAY: Not necessarily expecting a day like 'last year on this date', but rain chances for many areas Central to East Coast will be on the 'up tick' today, and more so in days ahead.

Not much change from previous post, as a mid-upper level low pressure area (a complex one) along with the surface features is only but now gathering its 'wits and steam' over parts of North Central Oklahoma southward toward the lower Mississippi River Valley Basin region, including parts of Southern Alabama and Mississippi.

 In coming days the area of low pressure will shift east and further south, fully displacing any prospects of a dominant Western Atlantic High Pressure ridge over the state, with an  increasing cyclonic flow/circulation over the state come the weekend as Florida comes fully into the localized affects of this aforementioned complex system.

With increasing southerly flow today through multiple lower levels of the atmosphere into the mid-levels and increasing moisture as well , coupled with a stacked south to southwest flow surface and above, the east coast sea breeze will not make nearly as much inland progression today north of around Vero Beach. 

It is possible that activity could even go up sometime after 2 pm very close to the coast in preferred locations (namely, near Lake Okeechobee and North Merritt Island) but the bigger event for today will be when the west coast sea breeze makes it's meeting with the east coast sea breeze later in the day.

Temperatures aloft are not all that cold, nor are winds strong and with less likelihood of any 'dry layers' aloft, the risk of 'severe category wind gusts' decreases. The bigger story I suspect between today well into next weekend will be 'sum total rainfall totals', possibly exceeding 5 Inches 'somewhere' in the state, possibly near the Nature Coast (the Big Bend area), but other areas could get larger totals on days like today when storm forward motion will be slow and erratic.

FRIDAY: So far, not much change from today is forecast. Granted, chances are each and every day from here on out will have it's own 'flavor' and/or 'type'  and how storms/showers evolve one day might well be dependent  upon boundaries laid out from previous day's activity as well. 

There is a bit more of a shift though come the weekend.

WEEKEND-MONDAY: The upper level features are advertised to make their closest pass to the Peninsula.

The GFS is consistent in lowering upper level temperatures and increasing mid-level winds. 

This could result in deeper convection, higher rainfall totals in a short amount of time, and stronger wind gusts; on the other hand, it can also mean but early initiation and quick motion off the east coast and residual cloud cover the remainder of the day. 

How things will evolve ultimately is up to how the 'cards fall' at this point. 
All in all, many will see much needed rainfall.

More to come in detail concerning the weekend time frame through Monday in future posts. Could be interesting.

NEXT WEEK: Continued variations to what by then will be 'the same old theme, different day'.

The mid-upper level features are forecast to abandon the Southeast states and lift north and east after Monday and/or Tuesday, but Southwest Flow aloft continues until at least Thursday. After that point, the Atlantic Ridge axis attempts to re-assert it's position across either South Central or Central Florida.  

It won't be all 'wet ' though. The GFS is showing that there is a chance at least parts of the state might  be 'dry slotted' perhaps on Sunday or Monday, so time will tell. If we are 'dry slotted' that means there would be specific areas that nearly to most definitely would not see rain that day.

The next issue, however, is whether a tropical entity (if nothing more than organized moisture) will have manifested near the Yucatan awaiting on the wings to be advected northward toward the Panhandle and in part, the peninsula as well come later next week.

This is too far out in time to be of concern at this point. 

Yesterday, the GFS had abandoned the notion that a potentially 'Named System' could impact the Western Panhandle, but then it brought it back again in a later run. 

 What will be seeing come 8 days from now (as one ought expect would be the case) is where else? Up in the air.

"Wet Season Suddenly on Tap" Thursday into Much of Next Week?

Testing a Wide Angle Lens   June 9, 2016  on a Storm to the West of Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Getting  an 'early start' on some showers going up along the East Coast Sea Breeze as of around 10:20AM along the west banks of the intercoastals. This activity will only slowly progress westward if at all. Once the Sea Breeze kicks in most of it might dissipate, only to re-emerge later in the day further inland.

Meanwhile, the west coast sea breeze will generate and work away from that coast.
The Short-Range and mid-range guidance suppose they will confront each other very close to the SR27 Corridor or very close to just west of the North/South Spine of the state between 5-6pm.

Meanwhile , steering winds aloft, though a bit 'east to west' early on over the Southern 1/3rd of the state, will progressively become more 'West to East' after dark and into all day Thursday and beyond that point well into next week. They are all but already nearly 'west to east' near to north of I4 even now.

But for today, the post considers the sea breeze collision well into the interior with a slight favoring toward the east coast along to north of I-4 as a result of the winds noted in the preceding paragraph. 

In fact, some activity might be able to work off the east coast across Volusia/Flagler Counties near or after dark up through 9-10PM, if as nothing more than
light-moderate rain showers. Will far North Brevard too get into the picture for rains later tonight too?  Time will tell, but the change is on .

THURSDAY: Pattern swing erupting faster than foreseen from but only two days ago. 

What was thought to be an overall 'west to east' pattern in storm motion on Sunday is beginning to now show signs of arriving as soon as Friday. 

Though steering will not be all that strong, it is nonetheless to be present. Temperatures aloft are not all that cold, so looking at this point for run-of the mill type activity heading into the weekend.

The cause of the change of pattern is a mid-level trough forming over North Texas which will be moving east across the lower latitudes the next several days. As it progresses east the high pressure ridge centered over Florida - off the east coast will slacken and drop south, to eventually being out of the picture altogether; this then would be placing the state in Cyclonic Flow near that mid-level low pressure region-and around to near the base of the approaching associated trough  .

Increasingly the winds aloft and eventually at the surface are forecast to become  southwest to west-southwest with time. So much so,that the east coast sea breeze might be prevented from forming completely come early next week. 

Additionally with the approach of this trough, moisture pooled ahead of it,and some drawn northward will overspread the state. 

Forecast precipitable water values are varying from 1.7" to 2.2' inches on nearly a daily basis from Thursday up through Thursday of next week, at least.

FRIDAY -THIS WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: The GFS Guidance implies the state will be in an increasing cyclonic flow around low pressure centered over Georgia and into the Carolinas with increasing moisture in the mid-upper levels. 

That means 'westerly' type winds with an increasing chance that we will not be seeing an east coast sea breeze some of the days coming up. 

With increased moisture as well, this all could mean 'early onset' days. 

That means, showers/thunderstorms could come into the picture as early as before noon, even mid or early morning along the West Coast and work toward the East Coast by early afternoon. 

All this is speculation at this point,but it sure looks like that might be the case from here.

With increased moisture, we will see increased cloud cover, so that despite the absence (potentially) of an east coast sea breeze, cloud cover and/or earlier onset of showers and storms would preclude us from experiencing very warm temperatures. 

Actually, from today on out temperatures appear will run the 'normal gamut' by and large well into next week; (that is to say, other than the chance of near record breaking 'record warm minimums overnight' especially along some of the east coast reporting stations). 

Once we get more into a 'westerly flow from the bottom up' going into the weekend that risk will go away though as well.

SUMMARY: Increasing rain chances most locations begins especially around Sunday. There appears that somewhere between SUNDAY-TUESDAY we could see STRONG STORMS as well, but that is too far out in time to dig into details for why that would be using the variables required to make that assertion that are too 'fine' to know of with any certainty at this point. Rainfall TOTALS across all days from Today through the end of next week
could amount to SEVERAL INCHES in a few locations,especially over preferred Polk, Osceola, Volusia, Seminole, Orange, and Lake Counties.

All in all, with the prospects of higher PWAT (precipitable water) atmospherically for such a prolonged length of time right into mid-June, we might be able to consider that going from today into the weekend we are welcoming the Wet Season afterall (?)

One Last Chance for East Coast For Showers/Storms Today

Thunderstorm offshore Cape Canaveral, June 1, 2017

TODAY: Literal variation today from yesterday, at least in regard to sensible weather. There is some 'invisible' variation though from yesterday. 

Forecast soundings are indicating a bit of an 'inverted V' type of profile, which is conducive for strong wind gusts in any heavy downpour  (or near them) that could or can develop. The issue with a sounding such as one being forecast (if it is real, and we'll know more when the latest KSC sounding comes in later this morning) is that if there is not just the right amount of moisture above 'the V" of the sounding, storms won't form at all.

Given the current trends in short range guidance and going with persistence, will liken today a bit  to yesterday. There are times when rain patterns occur in twos or threes from my observation,so if that is the case, we might end up seeing only a 'true' storm or so near the east coast very late despite what forecast models are showing in the forecast precipitation depiction of 'daytime' storms (but that is just a hunch). 

That was the case last night around 9 pm as a few storms suddenly erupted in the dark of night over Brevard County but during the day there was only one in the South Central area.

Storms moving offshore after dark

 That said, warm today, even at the beaches until the sea-breeze can form.
There is a chance it won't truly manifest until after 2 pm or so. Yesterday, it but barely penetrated inland any further than SR 3 in Merritt Island, at least that is, as of 4 pm it had not yet gotten any further inland than that (but if you were at the beach, who would know?).

Given the Inverted V profile of the forecast soundings and temperatures aloft being on the 'cool' though not overly 'cold' side, wind gusts in storms could be in the 40-45 mph range  easily (nothing damaging), but we might end up hearing some marine weather statements and who knows, maybe even a severe warning if things really ramp up which at this stage looks unlikely but not out of the range of possibilities.

TUESDAY: Pattern change as onshore flow (from the east) and steering becomes the dominant mode. The NAM (model) is showing pretty good coverage of activity down the spine of the state toward the west coast tomorrow, with the East side left high and dry; however, high cirrus cloud cover blow off from thunderstorm tops might spread across the east half of the state in various areas late day, resulting in a vague overcast by sunset.

WEDNESDAY: This day is being thought to be 'repeat' of Tuesday. The latest NAM just now coming in says, 'to the contrary' though. 

It is implying better sea breeze convergence right down the spine of the state with a slight trend to drift eastward. Given this  new manifestation, and one time observation only to this time, won't buy into it until subsequent model runs come in and there is agreement with other guidance.

BEYOND: Apart from the questionable 'Wednesday' will go with continuity with the GFS which once again shows a pattern shift over the weekend, with storms mainly focusing over all parts of the interior away from either coast, with a slight trend to favor even the beaches east-side by Sunday evening (but barely).

Even after that from Sunday onward toward mid-next week  the GFS continues to imply the onset of (to the bloggers opinion) the 'Wet Season" ; that being precipitable water values at or above the 1.7" mark on a nearly continuous basis. 

That does not mean that suddenly everyone is going to get rained on, or that one might even get any rain for a week at all. Only that the moisture is available for storms. Other factors such as temperatures aloft, low to mid level atmospheric instability, varying triggers other than sea breezes such as 'vorticity maxes' and upper level temperature variations all combined play a role in where, when , why and how showers/storms will form and in what direction they will go.

The supposed 'tropical entity' for late late in the period (mid-month) seems to have disappeared from the GFS model now, which could have threatened the Gulf Coast, but moisture being lifted northward is still being advertised. (this is not a reference to the same INVEST currently getting attention).

 Given that, would think that the Wet Season will begin some time within the Jun 9-14th time frame.

Showers and Some Thunderstorms Again Possible Today (Watch out Beaches)

Arcus Cloud takes the Lead ahead of a  June 11, 2014 Storm - Cape Canaveral 

TODAY: Not much difference from yesterday, though from latest radar showers are getting an earlier start inland as the move eastward. The KSC mid-morning sounding came in colder aloft at  20,000 feet and 10,000 respectively by a degree or two from yesterday.

 Precipitable water was lower but is forecast by all guidance to increase, likely due to mass convergence ahead of the west coast sea breeze as it approaches the Florida East Coast. 

The East Coast Sea breeze will set up shortly (early afternoon) but not likely make too great a headway into the interior  since the west coast sea breeze as of 12:30pm is almost half way across the state.

Instability overall is on par with average so again today looks like standard fare storms wise (some will not see rain at all today, whereas others might get over an inch near the east coast where some back building and boundary interactions will prolong rainfall in isolated locations).  Though a 'red zone' for the blogger for 'stronger storms' is being noted -- it's all conditional upon boundary interactions and as is always the case, unpredictable if and or where any such 'stronger storms' will be made manifest, let alone 'where' that would be.

MONDAY: As of now, Monday looks like a repeat performance of today, but with less coverage. We'll have to wait until  'the day of'  to know for certain; however, since little much aloft is going to be changing 'air mass' wise and temperatures aloft might warm up some which would by virtue of that fact tend to make activity more isolated and of less strength, it might be safe to say for now that there will be isolated to scattered storms again Monday which will move from west to east.

TUESDAY- FRIDAY: Pattern Change. Steering winds will turn from west to the east coast to the other way around. For the east coast , this means little to no rain chances, but for a scant chance a shower can form as the sea breeze kicks in which will likely be early on in the day. 

Best coverage will be across the west half of the state, and on some days even that might be a bit limited.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Another pattern change, favoring the interior direct then shifting to favor more of the East Coast once again come Sunday. Temperatures aloft might remain rather warm, so no 'severe' weather is foreseen and how much moisture for there to be showers/storms even if steering does favor the east coast is in question at this point in time (too soon to know). Meaning, even if 'steering' does favor the east coast, that doesn't mean there will be storms to be steered!

NEW: As of the latest GFS our 'Introduction to the Wet Season' might not be too far away. Indications of either a tropical system making headway toward the Gulf Coast Region from near the Yucatan come mid-June (which would be normal) is being indicated and/or merely a pattern that would favor a moisture surge from the Tropical Caribbean northward with high pressure  centered will to the east of Florida at multiple-atmospheric levels could bring the 'tidal wave of  'deep tropical moisture' northward. 

If a tropical system were to lift northward it would surely bring the moisture with it and trailing behind it and from there on out we'd be in it for the season (off and on). 

Otherwise, if high pressure does indeed situate itself well to the east, circulation around the high will lift it northward. At time, it appears to be a combination of both, but it is really too far out in the forecast timetable to say for certain.

Some Locally 'Strong' Thunderstorms Possible East Half of State

TODAY: What a difference a day makes ! There was one bona fide 'severe' thunderstorm yesterday in Volusia County over the peninsula  that  produced hail up to 1.00" briefly. The storm came and went in an hour and a half. Today looks like a different deal, that is, more of the same possible but greater in coverage (and possibly strength).

Situation: Much more moisture across the boards and up into the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Instability is already much greater than it ever got yesterday before noon time, with lifted indices around  -4 to -6 and likely will 'increase' (yesterday, the lifted index was close to non-existent).

Upper level temperatures are not all 'that cold' however, but cool enough combined with some support of mid level lapse rates north of SR 60 to take note on. Low level lapse rates? No problem...they seldom are in the summer over Florida except on cloudy days. There is also some effective shear in the upper levels across mostly the south half of the state. Sum total, different parts of the state have various parameters working for them to support thunderstorms for varying reasons.

The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh indicates that later in the day 'bulk shear' will be greatest from the surface on up into the atmosphere along to east of the East Coast Sea Breeze, namely from just west of I-95 and points east. Hence, would watch for a surprise, 'strong storm' especially in that area (nearer the coast line from Northern Volusia south toward Palm Beach County). Some storms could be prolific lightning makers though those will be quite isolated in nature, as would any 'hail producer'.

 At time, the NWS nor  The Storm Prediction Center is making a call for 'strong storms' explicitly, but would keep an eye out today to the west through west-northwest as that is the direction from which storms will be moving today just in case, and prepare for strong wind gusts in or near the vicinity of certain storms.

Activity could last well past sunset in some locations, that is, up through 9pm, but the strongest will occur with boundary interactions from previous shower/storm activities which establish  new activity along the east coast sea breeze just as it is to meet up with the west coast seabreeze. Said activity might move eastward, but would also follow a path outlined by some other boundary already laid up by a previous storm or rain shower as well; thus storm motion might be a bit erratic especially on the stronger storms that really get rooted up into the upper atmosphere and take more of 'right turn' toward the Southeast direction.

SUNDAY: More storms are anticipated, but the exact location and nature of them will have to wait until tomorrow. Coverage is not expected to be as great on Sunday either (not that it will be all that great today though either).

BEYOND: A drying out period is anticipated until the next weakened cold front moves southward and into Florida; it is these 'weakened frontal boundaries' that supply the necessary moisture to give rise to the cloud cover and likewise, storm activity.

NOTE: The Wet Season , in  the bloggers opinion, is yet to be seen..that is a 'typical afternoon thunderstorm cycle on a near daily basis' is not yet on the horizon. Perhaps going into the second or third week of June though, by then , we will see it.

Risk of Marginal to Pulse Severe Storms Once Again

TODAY: A few subtle changes from yesterday's premises (that can make a much larger difference in the scheme of things) appears to be underway from what earlier guidance would left one to think.

As referred to the other day, a mid level trough was premised to slide south of Central Florida by this morning leaving much of 'dead Central' just that. Dead to storms today due to it being too dry aloft; however, given the latest actual sounding out of KSC and model trends, such is not the case at all.

There is still sufficient moisture availability as far north as I-4 and it appears that 'nearly' enough will continue to be at play at least into early afternoon that far north.

Model guidance , especially short-term model runs are consistently showing enough surface based instability and moisture to be in place , if not all day, from nearly all of Brevard County south to Dade.

Temperatures aloft are a bit similar to yesterday as far as it being cold enough aloft to perpetrate strong updrafts along with some dry slots to motivate more potent ones, and mid-level lapse rates look to be running perhaps a tad more favorable for storms today to make up for a slight warming at 500mb (20,000 ft). The overall 'areal coverage region wide'  of instability, however, does not appear to be as great.

On the other hand, sea-breeze development up and down the east-coast looks much more likely than it did yesterday with the morning starting out with very light winds at the surface (though westerly all locations). 

The KSC sounding does show 18 kts of WSW winds around 4000 ft, but below that they are less than 10kts which a sea-breeze could over-come, especially after 1pm though it might be a shallow one. The sea breeze front is where the best low level converge can occur initially , thus resulting in upward momentum. Resulting outflow boundaries from earlier activity coming together along with the sea breeze is likely going to be where the real 'threat' will lie (perhaps Southern Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie counties ).

Strongest of storms will not really get going it appears until after 1-2pm, with a convective temperature of 89F. But again, it is where boundary mergers occur a couple hours later that will tell the story in full. Do note that the NWS has mentioned a reference to 'possible funnel clouds' and 'small hail' with the greater threat again today being wind gusts.

There is some question, however, as to how strong activity will be for Central and North Brevard.

 That far north is the area that has been in question in regard to whether it would rain there at all or not today, that is at least (in the bloggers view) until early this morning, and now especially mid-morning it does appear even that far north could see a 'strong storm'. 

One of the short-term models has very emphatically been implying some of the first activity of the day will go up near 'The Cape' and that storm when finally collapsing would send an outflow boundary southward and scour out much of the surrounding arear within 20-30 miles (perhaps)  - despite otherwise favorable conditions.  

On the other hand, if that does not occur then even a region as far north as SR 50 could be in the park for a 'stronger' type storm especially along the US1 corridor from near Port St John southward.

Below is the Blogger's 'Guess with a Stretch" (to include North Brevard or an area north of South Melbourne).  

(NOTE: The official forecast out of the MLB NWS is not calling for any storms today north of Melbourne as of earlier this morning)

For BLOG Purposes Only, Writer's   'Best Guess at 9AM''

Storm Prediction Center's Outlook at 8:00AM

All in all, apart from the above mentioned, the better chance for 'strong' storms will be along the east coast today, with mainly showers some developing into 'thunder' approaching from the west by noon time (first Lake/Polk) counties, for example

Strongest storms will be after 3pm - 6:45pm from Brevard to Dade Counties, with 'enviably' a 'mystery storm' perhaps evolving somewhere in St. Lucie/Martin Counties near Lake Okeechobee for  those so inclined to witness a 'good storm'.

BEYOND: The rest of the week continues to be dry and warm, even much warmer come Friday through the weekend when  the risk of even then, only perhaps an isolated storm could come above, but in general, next weekend looks dry with summer like warmth (but not quite the humidity).

Strong Storms Again Possible Today - Not a Good Beach Afternoon

Late Saturday afternoon  of May 4, 2019 facing South toward the Cocoa Beach Pier from Cape Canaveral

Today: Not much change in thinking in regard to today's weather set up and eventual outcome as the day progresses from late morning into mid afternoon.

A similar set up in the atmosphere per surface instability forecasts with a dry layer in the mid levels   combined with similar temperature profiles  aloft are all forecast to be present. Winds aloft today appear to be just a bit stronger,and as such the east coast Sea Breeze particularly north of Vero Beach might not be able to work as far inland as it did yesterday (for example, west of I-95) if at all. Without a sea breeze at all the whole 'forumla' will significantly change (namely the risk of stronger storms , or at least coverage of them, will be greatly reduced).

On the other hand, with the drier air aloft and strong instability at the surface forecast and similar colder air aloft it is again expected we'll see another round of storm activity to progress initially from the west side of the state eastward , mainly south of a line running from Cedar Key (West Coast) to Southern Flagler County (East Coast) southward toward Southern Palm Beach County (even interior Dade).

There is a bit of a 'condition' however in all this, that being any precedent cloud cover could put a bit of a damper on storm strength and/or coverage. All in all, most guidance suggests the most active areas will be  in the area noted below.

Blog Forecast For Most Active Areas

Below is the Official Storm Prediction Center's (SPC) Outlook for the areas most likely to be impacted by the 'Marginal Risk of Severe" storm activity

Inevitably, there will be a variation from yesterday. There were a few 'minimally severe wind reports' yesterday , but the majority of wind reports came in at the 40-45mph range, which is again expected to be the case today in and near the stronger storms . There was also a 1.00" hail report.  The other difference today might be a slightly earlier onset and hence east ward progression of the main storm focus by an hour or so, from yesterday.

MONDAY: Weak mid-level trough and associated surface 'front' and co-located moisture band will be working down the state as the day progresses. The boundary should lie almost directly 'west-east' across the state around 2-3pm tomorrow afternoon . 

Instability looks ample enough for fast moving 'showers' and maybe some thunder, but the storm risk appears at this time to be substantially lower and limited perhaps more to the East Coast south of Ft Pierce. Rain chances however, do exist mainly from near Cape Canaveral or Melbourne southward .

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: East wind will bring drier air and typical morning and afternoon temperatures. Mornings in the lower 70Fs at the coast (60Fs inland) and afternoons in the lower 80Fs (coast) and mid-upper 80Fs inland. There may be a period of time Tuesday and/or Wednesday for some shallow onshore type showers to work toward the coast, but the chance is quite low as things appear this hour of writing.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: As we work from Friday into the weekend, thunderstorm chances may well return with much warmer temperatures as well, with muggy low-mid 90Fs a possibility over the interior.

Chance of Pulse 'Strong/Severe' Storms Today/Sunday

June 6, 2016 from the KSC Visitor's Center

TODAY: Similar temperature/wind regime from yesterday, though suspect it will get warmer today than yesterday with less cloud coverage to start the day. 

Plentiful low - mid level moisture and surface based instability with a near to side-shore 'sea breeze' along the east coast under a prevailing SW-WSW steering flow aloft of about 10 kts (South Central/South) up to at times 23 kts (North Central) could keep the convective train chugging with residual activity after the first thrust of storms manifests lingering toward dark in some areas.

Near to side shore winds combined with outflow boundaries from 'early onset' activity could result in greater low level convergence in the presence of very cool (but not unusually cold) air aloft, combined with per the RAP sounding for KSC (for example) at 4pm of a dry mid level slot , might result in 'small hail' but more certainly wind gusts in the 40+ mph range. There was a 'severe qualified' gust yesterday in activity near Jensen Beach, so would expect a bit more of the same today, if not a bit more active.

As of early today (this writing) , "Prime Time" could commence after 2pm east central as other showery with some thunder activity progresses east ward along the west coast sea breeze, with a collision occurring mainly near to south of I4 around the 4pm time frame. 

Areas that experience 'early onset' (prior  to 4pm) might all out 'escape' any of the stronger activity that would/could have occurred later since those areas would be stabilized by the cooling rains that fall from them (assuming there will be such activity).

Overall 'coverage' of storm activity looks almost certain, mainly for areas over the interior south of I-4. Here is a 'general thunderstorm' coverage outlook generated by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), located in Norman , Oklahoma.

Back to home, strongest storms will be capable of frequent lightning. small hail, and strong wind gusts in and near the strongest storms. 

Things should begin to wind down in regard to the stronger activity rather quickly after 5:30- 6:30pm, though expect there could be residual pocket of rainfall to continue in some locations.

The bloggers most 'unofficial outlook' (refer to official sources as usual) is to be watching for strong/pulse severe activity in the 'red' area today.

SUNDAY: This day could be just as active (if not more so) as today. 

Early morning model guidance at least 'suggests' that the 'risk' of stronger storms seems to be even greater, for the same general area as today, though extending further northward to cover all of Volusia if not even Flagler Counties.

Granted , this is subject to change as usual, but it does appear to be that at a minimum, we could expect yet another day of a round of storms , but where specifically any one storm will hit with greater impact is as usual indeterminable.

MONDAY: Risk of stronger activity at this stage diminishes greatly as mid level moisture pooling along a mid level trough pulls off the U.S. East coast and slides south toward Lake Okeechobee. 

Temperatures remaining typically warmest inland. 

Coming days look to get quite warm by Wednesday, especially for the interior with wide spread lower and maybe even some mid-90Fs (?); however, as far as rainfall is concerned, mainly 'dry'.

Risk of Severe Weather on Good Friday

Severe Thunderstorm, April 19,  2015 Cape Canaveral (4 years to date of Friday)

TODAY: Continued warm with east wind, highs in the lower-mid 80Fs interior,
and lower 80Fs near the coast. Perhaps picking up a bit late in the day into tonight.

THURSDAY: Maundy Thursday's Storm system that is gaining 'infamy' before it has yet to fully take shape (but will later today in Texas and eventually several other states further north) will be progressing eastward.

Temperatures will be running status quo as wind becomes southeasterly  - the GFS model shows a chance of rain showers emerging, (maybe thunder) toward East Central later in the day but whether there will be ample moisture is in question. The GFS has been quite consistent, however, with that potential so can't say we weren't warned. Perhaps it's actually 'seeing' a patch of mid-level clouds rather than 'rain' but will go with the rain chances, though rather small at least as of this point.

GOOD FRIDAY: It's Darkest before the Light of A New Dawn, and no different in this case on this day. 

Though guidance is generally in agreement that the wind fields overhead will be considerably strong, ample enough with enough shear to produce severe category straight line winds or gusts, exactly how strong squa all line will be when it gets south of generally a Tampa toward Daytona Beach line is in question. 

Regardless, as seen by the latest SPC (Storm Prediction Center's) outlook, no point in being conservative this day. The weaker wind fields do seem to remain across South Florida as all models show though, and as depicted by the 'lower to no risk' zone for far South Florida (image below).

Though the "Threat being Denoted" (below) is for the 'Main Show' (or what is left of it as the system moves across the state after noon time) there is a  'Concern' for activity that "might' develop many hours out ahead of it (more below).

 Late Morning through Early Afternoon FRIDAY:

There is an ever small chance worth watching for, that activity could develop mainly near the Florida east coast come mid-late morning and quickly translate off shore. 

The Latest NAM Model (though it can get extreme) and a bit less the GFS hint that storms could form mainly near to east of I95.

The concern is that at that time, and given the NAM is now showing more Instability from previous runs and coming closer to the GFS, that anything that 'goes up' at the time could rotate as the wind fields earlier in the day are not as unidirectional  from the surface up through the mid levels as they will be later in the day, but rather have a bit of a 'turning with height'. 

The winds at the lowest levels will likely be 'quite breezy' early in the day (and all day for that matter on Friday) but be running  nearly parallel to the coast earlier on whereas with every given hour the winds overhead will be increasing from the SSW-W in the mid-upper levels. 

Temperatures aloft will also be cooling during this time frame with ample moisture sliding into place 'just in time' for a fuse to blow.

 Hence, for BLOG PURPOSES ONLY at this point, would be watching the skies from 10AM Friday near the east coast  mainly South of I-4 / along and east of I95  -- especially   Coastal Brevard, Indian River, and St Lucie Counties for a quick storm to go up. No guarantees anything will form but the risk is there.

LATER FRIDAY: The 'Main Storm System' of Infamy by this time will have crossed the Panhandle and be moving eastward across the state. How much 'punch' is left of it is yet to be seen, though hints are 'the worst' of it might not be as bad as winds aloft suggest could be. Regardless, bulk shear and sufficiently cold air aloft at this time of year are nothing to mess with and The Storm Prediction Center (and National Weather Service are messing with this one).  Let it be known, and respectable storm with the winds that will be aloft on Friday with the Main System could easily be 'damaging' in nature. 

Advise having a TV station or some form of social media (preferably with warning capability) at hand Friday) until the 'all's clear' which appears would be well before sunset.

SATURDAY - EASTER SUNDAY: Clearing skies and a bit breezy but dry Saturday. Cool in the morning warming into the mid-upper 70Fs.

EASTER SUNRISE:  Wind by this time will have died down considerably. Temperature at the beaches for Sunrise Services appear will be near 60F give or take 3 degrees. It will warm up rapidly by mid-morning well into the upper 70Fs with light wind all day.

BEYOND: Very pleasant spring weather once again the first half of next week.

 So far it appears the next chance of rain, perhaps thunderstorms, emerges come Thursday and/or Friday as a 'short wave trough' passes mainly north of the state, but with enough effects to result in "cold air aloft and instability at the surface with the west coast sea breeze being the dominant player as it pushes to meet a near-shore east coast seabreeze'. 

Too soon really to know that will be the situation, and timing is still up in the air, but it does look like one or both days could 'produce' a storm or two. Perhaps strong.