The Beginning of the Begininning

(pileus.."pi-lee-us"...clouds crown the top of building cumulonimbus in Brevard)

An interesting complex of storms occurred last night around St. Lucie county..unbeknowst to those up in Brevard, but one could see the lightning out there much of the night. That complex has but literally evaporated, but it did send out an outflow boundary up this way in the wee hours providing a good SE wind which has totally diminished now.

For today, mid level moisture has increased nearly significantly overnight, and temperatures from 700mb and upward have decreased approximately two degrees as a result of the U.S. East Coast trough approaching the area. We have some high level cirrus clouds overhead this morning, albeit thin, but nonetheless they are there, and expect these to persist off and on throughout the day as a weak low begins to form off the coast of Tampa during the day. These will offset heating a tad, and prevent the temperature from getting as high along the coast as it did over the weekend.

Light SSW wind this morning should become onshore by late morning, but don't expect the big cumulus line along the coast to develop in any real, organized form due to earlier onshore wind onset and lack of low level instability having time to build before it does materialize.

For the most part, expect today to be uneventful for much of Central Florida with the exception of down around Lake Okeechobee and perhaps the Tampa Bay area which will be closer to the aforementioned developing low.

A stationary boundary/front will remain to the north near a Jacksonville to Crystal River line, but will waiver North-South the next two days. Weak bubbles of low pressure will form either on the Peninsula or off either coast and follow along this boundary thus enhancing the chance of precipitation just about anytime from late this afternoon thru Thursday.

Today, expect that storms will become evident to the eye by the 3-4pm time frame with a weak drift toward the east coast. Could see a greater overall coverage of activity by late afternoon over all the east coast, but expect the strongest of storms to be from a Central Brevard to North Tampa Bay region line and points north which is more encompassed by the upper level low pressure trough, and thus contains colder air aloft.

In essence, keep one's eye to the sky and to the west after 4pm especially and beprepared for some lightning. If we get too much of the cirrus cloud canopy over us during the course of the day, however, all bets are off and we not see a drop of rain.

Looks Like a Beach Day

Photographers Capturing a Cape Canaveral Sunrise

Today's by-line pretty much sums it up. The set up for today is similar to yesterday's, but even less foreboding for rain than yesterday.

#1: It is even drier aloft than yesterday, and unlike yesterday there is no pocket of very moist air aloft looming on the horizon at the level of the atmosphere that would yield storms.

#2: Sea-breeze initiation will be earlier today..by 11am, thus giving the coast less time to become unstable and form rainshowers.

There is moisture out there, but it's all trapped below about 10,000ft. Expect to see some coastal cumulus clouds begin by 10am and start to fill the sky, particularly from Melbourne and points south in toward Lake Okeechobee. They might even grow fairly robust with soft, fuzzy edges indicative of the warm air aloft (which is not conducive for further vertical upward extent).

Not expecting a strong sea-breeze per-se until late afternoon where the typical 10-15mph breeze will be fully entrenched and most of the clouds along the coast will have by that time been torn apart or simply dissipated due to low level forcing mechanisms being destroyed by the stronger low level winds.

Additionally, with the earlier onset of the sea-breeze today, do not expect the temperature to get up to nearly 95 degrees today like it did in Cape Canaveral yesterday. Could get up to near 90 though then hang around 87 the rest of the day.

All in all, it looks like a good day for the beach with no fears of lightning expected, at least not up this way. Having a hard time for finding an argument for lightning anywhere today except maybe St. Lucie and Okeechobee Counties.

Monday and points on? Not much change early in the day but a gradually moistening of the 700mb layer will be in progress although kind of doubt it will be sufficient enough to generate any significant storm activity..it won't be until Wednesday that things get interesting with the approaching of a possible inverted trough (tropical wave) from the southeast which may merge and dissipate just east of the state with the upper level trough that will be nearby. Rainfall chances in any case could go up a notch each day with Wednesday and Thursday appearing the most likely time for widespread rain/convection at this time.

Longing For Some Rain

(STS missions from the past during day light from Cape Canaveral)

There's some local banter going on as to which launches are better - - night vs. day. I think that hands down day launches are better. There's more to see and photograph as you can see above. Night ones are 'pretty' per se, but the overall picture is not nearly as dramatic. I did watch the launch last night, then ran back inside to see the replays on TV which were better, thus not posting any pictures from what I saw..as there really isn't anything to see but a bright ball in the sky. Video would do it a lot more justice, but I expect there will be lots of that on the web before day's end that will well surpass what I saw. Recorded some of what was on TV on our local channel which I might post though.

Weatherwise, today not much change from yesterday but there will be some differences. Danny is pretty much out of the picture now and the dominating weather feature today is a long wave mid-upper level trough poised along the U.S. east coast. Drier than normal mid-upper level air streamed in as feared yesterday, suppressing most convection north of St. Lucie county. Today will be much the same. Expect a light seabreeze to form from the Cape and points south around 1-2pm and penetrate no further west than US1. At this time there will be a chance of a very light sprinkle from Canaveral South...but greatest storm coverage should again be from St. Lucie county in towards Lake Okeechobee as the afternoon progresses. The sea breeze, assuming it does form, may actually retreat by late afternoon and be all but gone as stronger mid level winds from the WSW over run the area late this afternoon.

There are hints that a pocket of moisture now over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will be moving into the area at that time..thus continuing a minute coverage of possible showers, mostly along the coast except for the better aforementioned areas where storms may linger until sunset. Don't think we'll see as much overall cloud coverage today since there won't be storms going up further west that will send their remnants overhead, creating the mostly cloudy sky we ended up with yesterday.

The temperature along the immediate coast may feel a tad uncomfortable today as it will warm into the low 90s with very humid conditions (as it was yesterday). It might feel very moist out there, but rest assured that just above ground level there is a significantly and unseasonably drier air mass in place.

Sunday-Monday: Expect much the same scenario as Saturday..with a small transition beginning by late in the day Sunday as greater moisture starts to overrun the region. By Monday we should be back to seasonal norms temperature and precipitation wise with storms induced by sea-breeze convergences from both coasts over the interior and making their generic penetration toward the coast and fizzling along the I-95 corridor.

..Transitions Are Always A Challenge

(shown above..just south of the attractions area of Orlando, Fl...2001)

Today is sort of exciting from an atmospheric forecast perspective. As I type this morning, the atmosphere, unbeknownst to the majority, is undergoing some pretty significant changes over our heads right now that could result in some exciting weather late this afternoon. With emphasis on "could".

The steering currents of storm motion are in the process of shifting from the east to the west southwest (WSW). It will be a relatively quick transition in the scheme of things...so that by mid afternoon the directional change will be complete...then later in the day the strength of that change increases.

Additionally, a mid-level cap at 700mb that was in place yesterday which suppressed storm activity is still there as of 6am...the question is to whether that capping mechanism will also be eroded during the transition, thus favoring rainfall in the form of thunderstorms later this afternoon unlike yesterday.

Most of the day will be benign, but I'm leaning faith in the forecast models that are hedging toward ample moisture, instability and dynamics in the form of low level wind convergence east of I-95. There appears to be neutral energy in place aloft this afternoon which doesn't bode well for storms reaching severe limits.

Synoptically speaking, a cut off low that has resided the past two days over the Deep South will fill and start to lift ENE during the day and merge with what is now superfluous Tropical Storm Danny over night tonight. This has been forecasted to occur for two days now, and see no reason to stray from this evolution. Convective Instability to be maximized in a region from Ft. Pierce diagonally NW to Cedar Key, FL on the west coast. This region is also the area where maximum upper level diffluence will occur. Mid and upper level temperatures, however, are not as cold as one could hope for generation of strong storms, in fact, they might be too warm. If that weren't bad enough, there is question as to whether the 700mb cap as alluded to earlier will erode at all...meaning the atmosphere at about 10,000 ft. might be too moisture deprived and warm for storm generation.

With the pros and cons layed out, it is with great uncertainty that a 'forecast' is made. I try to stress that the media and other forms of "information release to the general public" are not provided such free reign to state the not so obvious, which is I why I wanted to start this blog in the first place. Even if no one reads this I can spill my guts out somewhere in frustration and head pounding.

For example, in watching all forms of media release this morning and in weather models, I've seen that the weather can be from one extreme to the other...very wet or totally dry. All given, I'm leaning toward consistency and giving faith primarily in a blend of the NAM and RUC models combined with what I've learned about local affects that the models do not pick up on.

Looking for sea-breeze initiation early, but not making it far inland..and maybe actually retreating back toward the coast by late afternoon. Storms to go up about anywhere in peninsular Florida by noon time, mostly well inland at first and along the west coast..then gradually creeping toward the east coast in early afternoon. Volusia and counties south should realize the transition first..after 1pm as the WSW steering currents increase and previous storm merges further to the west coalesce and strengthen as they shove to the ENE. Points further south will see this resultant change after 4pm.

In my wishful thinking, but not altogether out of the realms of possibilities, some nice photographic opportunities will exist at the Manatee Park between 5pm and sunset in Cape Canaveral or at any open westward facing open expanse from Central Brevard south to St. Lucie County after 5pm. This is contingent that precipitation does not overrun the area earlier in the day...if it does indeed at all.

The core indicator as to whether late day convection (thunderstorms) will be present will be if lighter showers form in the area after 1pm. If they do, that would mean that the capping element is undergoing erosing, thus allowing more robust activity to form later.

So, this is not so much a forecast, as a rounding out of the possibilities that do exist for today, which in many ways is more important than just spelling it out in black and white as media is forced to. So be advised, it can swing both ways today..the good, the bad, and the ugly...or pleasantly benign. Being the weathernut I am...I'd prefer the former.

What about Danny? I see Danny as a dud in and of itself. However, as the storm moves north and a tad closer to the U.S. east coast, with its merger with the continental low pressure system complete it will be a subtropical or hybird system (I need to look it up to see what the difference is). The mid-Atlantic and in particular New England could be in for some tropical storm force gusts combined with very 'wet' conditions, but the storm should no longer be named per se (although for lack of any other reason, it probably will be).

Ol' Danny Boy

(above: Lola excitedly discovering Historical U.S. Tornadoes)

Starting out the morning with nearly clear skies and very light east wind. Expect today to be much like yesterday, but with two distinct weather "periods" defining the evolution of today's events:

1) with shower activity developing right along the immediate coast between 9-10am and continuing up until 1pm with the onset of stronger onshore flow. The magic spot for Central Florida this morning should be over and near the tip of the Cape and secondary preferred area along the Port entrance. Cloud lines should start to develop in earnest by 10am until noon.
2) with the develop of the onshore sea-breeze may also come an enhancement or surge of moisture which is missing this morning in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere. This could mean some prolonged activity until about 1pm, but after that time everything should be well along and west of I-95 with the exception of Volusia County and points north. Do not expect thunder today in Brevard County east of I-95.

Ol' Danny Boy - Interesting scenario evolving although none directly related to Danny will affect East Central Florida until late today and especially Friday. Meteorlogically, there won't be much affect as it does not appear that subsidence around the periphery of the system will reach here; but long period, deep swells with long lines (high in latitude but low in longitude (height) so to speak_...might make for long, small closeout surf later today under mildly choppy surf conditions. As Danny moves north a gradual merger with the East Coast trough will ensue and be complete by the time the storm reaches the latitude of the Carolinas. It will then take off to the NNE paralleling the U.S. East Coast and eventually make landfall in Nova Scotia as a sub-tropical entity. Not sure if it will ever reach official hurricane status, although pressure gradient between the system and continental high pressure could create hurricane force gusts along the immediate coast from New England and points north.

What this all means for us: Once the merger with the continental low/trough takes place the storm steering flow that has been in place since Monday will shift to WSW in the wee hours Friday and strengthen as the day progresses, being in full swing by late afternoon, coinciding with post max heating.

There are hints that a dry slot intrusion may also occur at this time which would really put a damper on overall thunderstorm coverage Friday, but not completely. The flow pattern will persist in strength through Saturday, and as what might be extra-tropical Danny moves north the dry slot will follow leaving the area in a greater vertical moisture profile, and hence enhanced thunderstorm probabilities.

Once Danny is completely out of the picture the trough will persist along the U.S. East Coast, and the pattern we've had most of this summer will be re-installed for probably its last fling of the summer. Give it through Tuesday to persist in varying degrees of strength, but after that summer storms might well be over for the immediate coasts for any more than a one or two-sy day period through mid-September...with the west coast of Florida, specifically from the spine of the state and around Lake Okeechobee to the west coast to get the brunt of storms, in majority, after the first week of September for their lasts flings as well.

A cold front will also plunge deep into the Southeast US during the second time in the past couple of weeks, likely breaking record low temps across the mid-west and near the Gulf Coast, but never penetrating quite as far south as Central Florida, hmmm..until maybe Wednesday?
It's at this time that it either crosses us or loses its identity almost right on us.

The westerly steering flow will not be so strong as to offset afternoon sea-breeze convergences though, so there stands a chance of seeing some 'items of in interest' for photographic purposes. Each day will vary in preferred locations, timing of initiation, etc...leaving this lone blog-ster a few things to write about.

What's on the horizon tropics wise? Not much other than that after Tuesday we may be back to unforecastable tropical waves again, with the first giving hints already in the long term range developing around next Thursday (September 3).

Tornado in Trinidad

...a great example of Vortex Breakdown and Roping Out!

...Same Old Song and Dance (click to hear)

It's just got light out, and I need to do a "quick and dirty" due to some morning commitments. The heat index at 5am is 96 degrees if that's any indication of the air mass in place. If I get this right this first time, not only will it be a first, but I won't have to do an update. For today...

Deep easterly steering flow will persist today with gobs of moisture and perhaps a little kicker today ejecting out of the closed low forming in S. Mississippi and across the Central Peninsula this afternoon. Along with the kicker there will also be some divergence yet higher aloft as the upper level low in the Deep South becomes established. So there's two things in favor of storms that we didn't really have yesterday (and yesterday wasn't too shabby as it was). Timing for the east coast for a rain shower could be just about any time but most climatically likely before 1pm and after 6pm. I know...so it will rain at 3:30pm. Like yesterday, thunder not too likely along the immediate east coast but more likely the further west of I-95 one traverses.

Most favorable area for a good storm looks to be from Tampa Bay and NE up into Lake County after 4pm, although a shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out at almost anytime in this area. The southern half of the state's weather will be almost solely dictated by an easterly flow regime whereas further north the aforementioned low/trough becomes a player. Anvil debris shouldn't over spread the East Central coastal areas today as it will be spread more toward Volusia County and points north later in the day under the gentle flow of the upper level trough.

Looking ahead a bit, we will have yet another go at a similar pattern tomorrow until the Tropical System pulls its closest move toward the state and lifts further north putting the state in westerly flow aloft; thus, favoring the east coast for the big afternoon boomers Friday-Sunday. Thursday will begin this transition with near nil flow by late in the day. It seems the system east of the Bahamas will lay low enough to not put the state in subsidence, thus rain chances are not greatly diminished but more likely to be restricted to the interior due to the influence of a west coast-east coast sea breeze convergence down the state's spine. After this scenario plays out the transition will continue over night and by sunrise Friday the new pattern will have begun - growing more established as the tropical system lifts north and merges a bit with the cut off low over the Deep South.

Expect that Friday will be the best day for a neat-o storm as always seems to be the case on the first day of full transition under an 'unpolluted' air mass. It's getting late in the Thunderstorm Season now, and we're only good for maybe two weeks of steady storm activity. After that time, it takes a little extra 'magic' other than time of day to induce storms.

On the plus side, even though they will occur less often -- we are left with a two week window of opportunity for what I think of as "rarities". Some years it happens, and some years there's absolutely nothing. It so happens that this is about a good time that something tropical in nature could occur as well...so there's still things to look forward to (if one is prone to liking active weather). It can be very benign during this time as well, so tighten up the bootstraps a notch and keep attuned.

Every Cloud Has a Silver Lining

(some of these look pretty neat enlarged)

What a difference a day makes. Or in this case, a night. Seems the wheels have turned a good 90-180 degrees in areas around the state overnight, leaving it's logo across the sky this morning. Nocturnal and early morning thunderstorms lined the continental shelf off the Cape causing launch cancellation and marine mayhem. Landlubbers bathed in ignorant bliss under their sheets with eyes shut while Mother Nature took to the skies. But today she dealt a difficult hand to contend with. I'll stay with the hand I've got and lay it out straight and hold, praying I don't get trumped.

Basically what we've got is upper level winds out of the WSW and low-mid level steering out of the SSE-SE. Most of peninsular Florida has resumed it's 'spongy' characteristic' this morning unlike yesterday when a rare 'cold front' made an unseeming visit to the state from the North Pole (?) and drying out the entire northern half. Go back Santa, it's not your time, yet. We've got bigger eggs to fry during Thunderstorm and Hurricane Season than wrapping tidy bows around neatly packed trinkets of admiration.

So, in essence we have a fairly uniform onshore steering flow (on the east coast), moisture, and a mildly unstable atmosphere without any triggering mechanisms and no cap. But the gods have at least provided some moisture which will be lacking by tomorrow under subsidence as well, so we'll give it a shot today and call for early-middish/late afternoon rains for the east half of the state..and mid to late-ish/evening thunderstorms on the west coast. I have a feeling thunder might be lacking on the east coast today, but seems more likely the further west one goes where the CAPE will pile up under more prolonged daytime heating and the easterly flow.

I'm not really hoping for anything 'siggy fun' today...although their might be a very pretty sunset if enough clouds clear out (assuming there are many to clear out..). But all in all, despite the fact there isn't a cloud in the sky now and all the morning activity offshore seems to have made for a hasty exit, things could be interesting today. The real shift in the pattern really doesn't commence until about 11am. From that time on it will spend the day establishing itself. I'm looking for rain on the east side from 1:30pm to 5:00pm time frame and about 1- 1 1/2 hours later as one works west. Not chasing today unless I want to end up in Tampa Bay at 8pm and contend with a long drive home through Orlando. I'll sit tight and pray some early stuff induces a waterspout just offshore, although I'm not hedging any bets on the possibility...I'd have to toss the hand I was dealt in for a new one.

Tropics. I remain in the coffin. Let this 'whatever it will be' that's developing east of the Bahamas do whatever it's going to do...just get it over with and by pass to the east and north so we can resume our normal routine. I'll awaken in mid-September when the atmosphere has had a time to recycle.

"Florida Front Fiascos" By George

The atmosphere is not feeling well today, nor is my cat "Lola" (give her a click)

It's sort of amazing today actually, having a front situated across Central Florida in August?! I don't recall that ever happening. The graphic above is showing the Convection Available Potential Energy forecast for this afternoon. One can see where the boundary between No CAPE and some of it lies. But it's not that easy......

With that, the forecast becomes somewhat problematic as far as how far north will the precipitation line make it today from it's current location (?)...which can be either parallel and over I-4 from Tampa to Daytona, OR along a secondary leading trough that lies somewhere in S. Brevard along the coast. The second trough, having passed N. Brevard..has shifted the wind temporarily to the NE along the coast as of 1:30pm in Cape Canaveral. This should be short lived though as it mixes out by 4pm and the c-breeze becomes the dominating feature.

In any case, it seems it will be that second trough that will determine where earlier preciptation can form (south of it), otherwise it could be well near sunset..if at all every where else between that boundary and the I-4 'front'.

As I type, a line of towering Cu that extened from the Cape across Merritt Island and into SE Orange County literally got its head cut off right through the middle leaving remant stratocumulus and the ends stranded aloft. The line is attempting to re-establish itself now but the Cu further south have become greatly diminshed with my guess being the passage of the second boundary (which is not depicted on any of the models)

Until the atmosphere can recycle and swings/veers to the SE we are pretty much in limbo. It's a waiting game. Anything that goes up today will likely move just E of due North well south of that second boundary..with the exeption of where the second trough lays it s dying remains..that activity may more closely follow that boundary in a more ENE direction.

The one thing that the models seem to have come agreement upon is that the immediate coast might escape rain today altogether..and that most activity will be west of US1 after 5pm. Confidence in strong activity is not very high today, contingent upon how well that second boundary can mix out. If it doen''t mix out as thought, then rain chances will be low except maybe well west of I-95. Where the air is more greatly modified back to normal levels and away from the seabreeze.

Man Your Battle Stations...The BOYZ Are Back

I love the mock wave poser. No one was around to take my picture in it though. Darn!

Good Bye Bill...you were nice while you lasted. At least that's what the surfers thought. Actually, the waves aren't all that bad this morning. Went to the pier to take some photos for the morning blurb and to try to hone my photo skills a bit. Didn't help. But I did get to meet a very nice dog, some surfer dudes who wanted to 'borrow' some money, and got a beach worth of sand between my sandals and my feet. It's still between my toes. It was fun!

And yesterday, despite my failings to get some good surfing video due to being there too early (too early? me?) I did make a little 'Virtual Tour of Cape Canaveral' video. It's over there on the right..under High Speed Dirt Video..the top one. I confess, it wasn't my idea. I saw another one on YouTube but I didn't like the way it was done..and since I had nothing else to do I thought that since I'm already here I'll just video the trip back..set it to music, and a star is born..not quite, at least not in this lifetime.

Yesterday panned out to be very interesting in Cape Canaveral with 3 separate storms moving thru over the course of 2 1/2 hours...each with a character and structure all its own. None were particularly strong or excessive lightning producers, it was the boundary that had been set up and the way the surface winds were all over the place right around the Cape that set the wheels in motion. Not sure how much different today will be but this is the pre-diagonsis of the atmosphere even though no new data has come in. (I guess that's why one could call it the pre-diagnosis).

The upper level trough has an interesting vorticity maximum rotating around into the base of itself this morning; however, I don't think it will have any affect on our weather today - - directly. Indirectly, more numerous storms could go up just north of here and send out a boundary to meet the sea-breeze..which actually isn't too much different than yesterday. There is a part of me that suspects the boundary is still there, but that's too much to ask. But it's something to consider. Yesterday it really wasn't apparent until all the activity flared up to the north and the southern extent was right on the boundary. It was almost magical to witness in and of itself.

There is something going on in the eastern Gulf Of Mexico which may be a harbinger of things to come...and I'm going to latch on to that feature for the sake of this discussion. Upper level moisture today again is not tremendously abundant (surprisingly), but it wasn't yesterday either. The biggest difference that I can tell for today is that the winds aloft are a smidgen stronger. The sea-breeze will kick in today from the Cape south...but it might not be until after 1:00pm. So it could be another hot one today. Canaveral got up to 95 yesterday (and I caught on video -- see for yourself -- the video of the thermometer is posted (gad); couldn't believe it. But it dropped 7 degrees in half an hour when the sea-breeze kicked in. That was the magic ingredient yesterday...both it's timing and how far west it got...in combination with that aforementioned boundary. I doubt it ever got past Merritt Island at best. The old tail of Bill's trough as mentioned yesterday must have been laying across Central Florida and the sea breeze coalesced along it..one storm went up..sent a boundary back to the west..and another went up almost right behind the first and followed that same boundary. It was quite the parade of characters coming to town yesterday. All the storms looked different. Quite bizarre actually.

Okay, for today. No early day stuff. Sea-breeze between 12:30pm - 2pm (this is where it gets tricky...will there even be a sea-breeze?). It barely manifested itself yesterday and today looks like an even bigger challenge. Assuming it does kick in (for now), storms may very well be in the making by 1pm and should push ENE at about 10-15mph to meet the BOYZ marching along the front lines (over the marsh lands). Maybe today will be the gust front I was hoping for yesterday, although yesterday was better than a gust front so I'm not complaining. It could be interesting once a few storms get going and the boundaries interact. It's better if we don't have too many storms (unless you really like to get wet)...but for the sake of someone who would like to get a good structure shot ...I prefer to hear wildly scattered to scattered rather than numerous. But today does look like it could fit the scattered bill. It will become clearly evident what most of the storms are going to do today as far as motion once they start to go up. So far the stuff in the GOM and some spritzes near Ocala are rolling right along quite nicely to the ENE to NE as they should since that 's the direction the wind is "upstairs" . If we get real lucky we'll find one that would prefer to misbehave and shove south along the boundary. But such antics are unforecastable. That type of thing remains a mystery (at least to me).

I downloaded everything off the camcorder yesterday, and since I most inconveniently happened to NOT have the camera charged yesterday, you can bet it will be (and IS) today!

Today's Menu: Surf n' Turf

At the beach: Photographers, surfers, tourists, and locals all here to see the big surf and experience extremely dangerous rip tides. What a blast! (ya gotta click on'm to get the full effect)

What a great day, huh?! Not often we have a "Surf-n-Turf" day, when there's the best of both worlds! Went down to 27th St. in S. Cocoa Beach to try the hand at surf video/photography but was too early. The sun was right in my face and the glare off the ocean made it virtually impossible to see anything let alone the surfers who were ripping the waves apart at my old stomping grounds -- the waves were about 2-4 ft overhead, clean, glassy with decent form. If I had half a brain, I'd be back there even now, but I don't want to drive thru all the traffic to do it. And by this time of day on a beautiful Saturday as it is..there WILL be traffic on A1A. So I took some photos at the beach here. The waves in Cape Canaveral as a golden rule are general 2-4 ft smaller and don't have the form. Maybe next time I'll go south at the right time, and there will be lots more "next times" into fall when I can focus on the surf and the thunderstorms have gone away..and it usually works that way ;-). That's one thing about the small wave surfing capital of the U.S. - "my surf, my beach, my wave."

Today ("The Turf"): Deep layer mean (DLM) WSW flow is beginning to set camp over Central Florida, DLM other than a nice little seabreeze that should set up by early afternoon --the magic ingredient. The preciptable water values from TPA did not come in super encouraging, and it looked like there was a slight cap at 700mb. However, I believe that given lots of ample heating which we will have today that things will start to ramp up after 2pm and march toward the coast. Hopes are in the "high" range for a good "gustfronting" upon the area today! We may even keep that light seabreeze pinned close to the coast. I can't imagine a better set up. This could be a classic.

(The "Surf") Meanwhile over at the beach lots of energy is being generated by Bill in the form of long, deep swells generating powerful waves and great surf! Nice and glassy this morning with a 5 mph offshore wind and about 2-4 feet overhead surf at S. 27th St. in Cocoa Beach. Watch out by noon time during the outgoing tide though. It's likely the swells are digging trenches in the ocean floor which will serve as foci for strong undertow/rip currents as the tide pulls out... and indeed the NWS is calling for the extremist of conditions today. Given it's the weekend I wouldn't be surprised to hear of up to 100 rescues oout of Volusia, Brevard, and Indian River Counties. It seems so much like a June day today. I just can't believe it. Hey, you can join the fun. Just click under the videos to the right where you see the blue sky..a virtual drive up A1A :p

It's a Beautiful TGIF Morning in Cape Canaveral

Photos are from the beach this morning.That's somebody's home in the center

Today: I should just say "read yesterdays" because the thinking for what today will be like hasn't changed. Nor has the thinking changed for Saturday and Sunday. But I'll regress...today will be much like yesterday with less chance of local activitiy in the morning...but still a small chance of something before 2pm. Steering winds at the Space Center are 5 knots or less the whole way up toe 30,000 ft...and there's plenty of moisture. Problem is that with such light winds and no apparent trigging mechanism I'm not sure how things will get started too early. So that does pose a small problem..but for the most part even if something does go up locally between Ft Pierce and Oak Hill east of US 1..it will be weak and small. Not sure why there isn't a spout potential this morning advertised... LOTS to learn.

By this afternoon in the 3-5pm time frame the seabreezes on both coasts will have become active. With the ridge axis oriented over us that way it is..the bulk of the activity will be right along "lightning alley " (the I-4 corridor). Have a hard time rationalizing how anything will make it back to the coast South of Oak Hill, but there is that remote chance we could see another Fish Camp scenario set up after dark which would be great for lightning shots.

Tomorrow: the influence of Bill will be pulling away (subsidence) and the upper level trough will begin to penetrate North Florida..allowing for a SW flow to become established. For now, I'll leave tomorrow and Sunday both at typical afternoon and early evening stuff only as good ops, and not in the morning. ..and will vary that thought based on how things evolve. There are several possiblites as to what they might be...but I'm leaving out the ifs, ands, or buts and prefer just to provide that much of a heads up for now.

Good Bye Southeast Flow

Lola is catching up on her history lesson. Yeah..I find history boring too.

Today: Hurray! A change is in place. This became apparent last night as can be seen in the radar image from around 11:30pm. This cluster of storms moved north with a trend of working toward the coast; however, it died across the burial grounds of unworthy storms (i.e. the swamps).

Set-Up: Upper level ridge that has been elongated across the Deep South will sink south and be almost right across us today. This is in response to a large upper level trough that is digging down the Belt Ways of Alabama and West Georgia. It can be noted that it is this same trough that will steer Tropical Cyclone Bill into the Netherlands of the Atlantic Ocean as a 'fish storm', although the folks up in Nova Scotia might want to have their casting nets ready just in case. Since the ridge will be over us today..if not a hair line fracture to the south, we will lose the pesky ESE to SE steering flow that's been plaguing us for so long. In essence it's going to seem a lot like the "June Days of Summer" the next 3 days, particularly Saturday and Sunday.

So what gives?: Good question. The ridge snaps right down the middle leaving the majority out in the Atlantic for Bill to deal with while the rest takes its sabbatical in the Gulf of Mexico as the trough drops right in between the two and gives us a nice pat on the head...in the form of SW-WSW steering flow. Too boot, Bill will be leaving his tailing trough to fill in the gap where the ridge departed. A nice, moist tail at that too.

But there's a fly in my soup!: Yep, it's called "warm air aloft". This "mourn"ing's sounding does reveal that to be true, but I don't think it will be so much as to inhibit convection completely. The other thing to consider is subsidence both just to the south of the base of the 500mb trough as well as in the periphery of Bill's umbrella.That is today and most of tomorrow. Look for some bubbly Cu by noon and isolated showers by 1-2pm with storms over the interior and approaching the I-95 corridor in earnest by 4-5pm. Maybe we'll squeeze one out even closer to the coast either early in the afternoon or after 5pm.

The Weekend is looking more hopeful. Bill will have pulled far enough away and the trough will have dug a smidgen further south opening up the flood gates for SW Flow aloft while maintaining a high probability of a seabreeze pinned to the coast. Best chances for storms at this time seems to be east CENTRAL Florida for a change too. We're due. Looks like we may be gust fronted at least twice in the course of the next 5 days. So I'm cleaning off the lens and putting some fresh memory sticks in the camera. I wonder if I'll ever use the rest of the film in that camera. It's probably decayed by now.

Monday: Back to the dog days of August and the same old song and dance. Unpredictabe weak tropical waves. However! There's hints of a fairly strong one evolving just to the north of the Bahamas by mid week.

Early Evening Forecast Discussion

Precipital water has dropped this evening to 1.84" which might explain the lack of activity along the east coast today (along with warmer 500mb temps than the past few days). But this will all change gradually during the course of Thursday and Friday.

We'll be in transition of a nil to slight favoring of the east coast Friday and especially Saturday thru Sunday, and with Bill wagging his tail (sfc trough) as he goes by it could get interesting in these parts. The impression I see is there will be a lingering trough with very light flow leaving room for a diurnally driven sfc trough to form down the spine during max heating with little flow aloft until Saturday when a strong SW flow returns to the state ... which will then favor the east coast for two days.

After that, as if this was written in stone..it's going to be back to using satellite/water vapor imagery to do mostly post-haste nowcasting as stuff will be coming off the ocean where there is no upstream data points.

In a nut shell..east coast or close to it for the weekend. Until then we'll have to succumb to the forces that be and play it on a nearly hourly basis since chances of precip will exist at any time but most likely late morning thru mid afternoon.

Tuesday, August 18 (10:35am)

NOW: Latest KSC sounding and local LDIS model reveals a very moist and moderately unstable airmass over East Central Florida this morning with no capping. Evidence is in the picture below taken at 8:30AM. Latest RUC analysis depicts a weak, low level trough embedded in the ESE steering flow which should be making "landfall" around 2pm this afternoon.......

TODAY:..... If we aren't unstable enough now, we will be then. Unlike the past two days, it looks more likely that showers could persist at any time today and into tonight. Heavier storms will be west of I-95 once the showers encounter some frictional drag as well as uplift from the heated landmass of the peninsula. Big Storm or two west of Orlando with heaviest threat being lightning in abundance and heavy rain. Storms should keep on marchin' though..so big time accumulations shouldn't occur execpt in areas that happen to get more than one dousing.

TOMORROW: More of the same. Looks more like a more significant tropical wave in association with "Remnant Ana" will pay a visit late tonight into Wendesday continuing if not increasing our chances of rain through the day and into the night. It is currently beginining to spread its ashes toward S. Florida.

FURTHER OUT: The overall pattern will start to shift from an "unpredictable stream of inverted troughs off the Atlantic"...to more of a "back to the continental trough digging south across the SE U.S" regime which has plagued us all summer. Placement, and therefore the resultant outcome, will be the factor in determining what each day will bring us. Thus, each day can be a new story. How exciting!

Had to throw in this photo of my cat, Lola. She loves her new necklace I bought for her yesterday.

August 17 (10:00am) -click for official Forecast Discussion for Cape Canveral Area

Went to the beach this mornig to watch the launch. Very nice. For today...

"In a nutshell" post: East Central Florida remains in subsidence behind remnant Claudette and ahead of the upper level low pressure area slowly approaching the Florida Straits. Given the fact that there were some showers around late yesterday afternoon, over night, and currently well off shore it's a good bet that this pattern will continue and in fact increase a bit throughout the day and tonight.

The overall available moisture has increased nicely since yesterday, so would expect greater coverage inland by late afternoon. 500mb temps are actually much cooler today so thunder isn't out of the question west of the state's spine.

Expect that given the deeper layer moisture off the Atlantic and cooler temps aloft, in combination with the lack of any intruding factors, that this pattern will continue with periods of showers dictated by "waving" motions in the mid-lower levels which generate the showers in cluster batches.

Sunday, August 16 (9:40am) (NWS click)

Lightning flash photo taken with my camcorder. The map (click to enlarge) is my best guess for enhanced tornado threat. The cat is Lola, my soul mate :-)
TODAY: Not much to say really. We have everything against us today. This morning East Central Florida lies within two regions of subsidence - to the east of now Tropical Depression 4 and to the west of an approaching TUTT low. Atmosphere has dried considerably since yesterday and winds in the mid-levels are unidirectional out of the south with very light jet stream winds above that. In short, there's nothing going for us today to generate storms if even a rain shower. Only a very remote chance of something weak inland after 3pm, but even that might be generous.

TROPICS: : Watching TS Ana and Bill. Current projected path has them heading toward C. Florida at this time then curving either south a tad and across the Florida straits..or northward toward Bermuda. ..OR..one being absorbed by the other. Therefore, I'm not even going to touch that right now and here's why. I'll confidently say that it's unrealistic to make a forecast for such, and thank goodness this is only a blog so I don't have to come off sounding confident to the General Public about something that inside I know no one can realistically know . Granted, I could take a best guess (and I do have one), but chances are if you are reading this you've already heard your share. The mid-long range tropical systems' direction and intensity forecasts from the various models varies significantly both between models and within the specific model's run cycles; therefore, I will not provide "speculation" on these systems until such time it becomes feasible.

I will provide speculation though on TD4. Whether it will strengthen into a named storm is very iffy and impertinent because the net affect is the same whether it has a name or not, but I do think it will become a storm by mid-afternoon. There will be a slightly enhanced tornado threat in the area I have marked in the image above and in maybe a larger area as the evening progresses as well as an enhanced flash flooding threat, paricularly in Alabama along the storms path and just to the east of that into western Georgia.

August 15 (9:00am) -click for official Forecast Discussion for Cape Canaveral Area

Photos taken near sunrise this morning.

Found the Surf Cruiser on the beach.

TODAY is a suprisingly easy one. Deep SE, moist flow this morning will back gradually into the afternoon to more of an easterly component and dry out a bit in the wake of a tropical wave passing just south of the keys. As a result expect any shower activity after this morning to be essentially non-existent east of I-95 and isolated to scattered west of I-95. Exception will be from Ft. Pierce and south where closer proximity to the wave may allow some ongoing ocean showers to persist until late afternoon.

TROPICS: Watching TS Ana. Current projected path has her heading toward C. Florida at this time. It should be noted that mid-long range tropical system direction and intensity forecasts from the various models can vary significantly both between models and within a specific model's run cycles; therefore, I will not provide "speculation" on these systems until such time it becomes feasible.