It's a Beautiful TGIF Morning in Cape Canaveral

Photos are from the beach this morning.That's somebody's home in the center

Today: I should just say "read yesterdays" because the thinking for what today will be like hasn't changed. Nor has the thinking changed for Saturday and Sunday. But I'll regress...today will be much like yesterday with less chance of local activitiy in the morning...but still a small chance of something before 2pm. Steering winds at the Space Center are 5 knots or less the whole way up toe 30,000 ft...and there's plenty of moisture. Problem is that with such light winds and no apparent trigging mechanism I'm not sure how things will get started too early. So that does pose a small problem..but for the most part even if something does go up locally between Ft Pierce and Oak Hill east of US 1..it will be weak and small. Not sure why there isn't a spout potential this morning advertised... LOTS to learn.

By this afternoon in the 3-5pm time frame the seabreezes on both coasts will have become active. With the ridge axis oriented over us that way it is..the bulk of the activity will be right along "lightning alley " (the I-4 corridor). Have a hard time rationalizing how anything will make it back to the coast South of Oak Hill, but there is that remote chance we could see another Fish Camp scenario set up after dark which would be great for lightning shots.

Tomorrow: the influence of Bill will be pulling away (subsidence) and the upper level trough will begin to penetrate North Florida..allowing for a SW flow to become established. For now, I'll leave tomorrow and Sunday both at typical afternoon and early evening stuff only as good ops, and not in the morning. ..and will vary that thought based on how things evolve. There are several possiblites as to what they might be...but I'm leaving out the ifs, ands, or buts and prefer just to provide that much of a heads up for now.

Good Bye Southeast Flow

Lola is catching up on her history lesson. Yeah..I find history boring too.

Today: Hurray! A change is in place. This became apparent last night as can be seen in the radar image from around 11:30pm. This cluster of storms moved north with a trend of working toward the coast; however, it died across the burial grounds of unworthy storms (i.e. the swamps).

Set-Up: Upper level ridge that has been elongated across the Deep South will sink south and be almost right across us today. This is in response to a large upper level trough that is digging down the Belt Ways of Alabama and West Georgia. It can be noted that it is this same trough that will steer Tropical Cyclone Bill into the Netherlands of the Atlantic Ocean as a 'fish storm', although the folks up in Nova Scotia might want to have their casting nets ready just in case. Since the ridge will be over us today..if not a hair line fracture to the south, we will lose the pesky ESE to SE steering flow that's been plaguing us for so long. In essence it's going to seem a lot like the "June Days of Summer" the next 3 days, particularly Saturday and Sunday.

So what gives?: Good question. The ridge snaps right down the middle leaving the majority out in the Atlantic for Bill to deal with while the rest takes its sabbatical in the Gulf of Mexico as the trough drops right in between the two and gives us a nice pat on the head...in the form of SW-WSW steering flow. Too boot, Bill will be leaving his tailing trough to fill in the gap where the ridge departed. A nice, moist tail at that too.

But there's a fly in my soup!: Yep, it's called "warm air aloft". This "mourn"ing's sounding does reveal that to be true, but I don't think it will be so much as to inhibit convection completely. The other thing to consider is subsidence both just to the south of the base of the 500mb trough as well as in the periphery of Bill's umbrella.That is today and most of tomorrow. Look for some bubbly Cu by noon and isolated showers by 1-2pm with storms over the interior and approaching the I-95 corridor in earnest by 4-5pm. Maybe we'll squeeze one out even closer to the coast either early in the afternoon or after 5pm.

The Weekend is looking more hopeful. Bill will have pulled far enough away and the trough will have dug a smidgen further south opening up the flood gates for SW Flow aloft while maintaining a high probability of a seabreeze pinned to the coast. Best chances for storms at this time seems to be east CENTRAL Florida for a change too. We're due. Looks like we may be gust fronted at least twice in the course of the next 5 days. So I'm cleaning off the lens and putting some fresh memory sticks in the camera. I wonder if I'll ever use the rest of the film in that camera. It's probably decayed by now.

Monday: Back to the dog days of August and the same old song and dance. Unpredictabe weak tropical waves. However! There's hints of a fairly strong one evolving just to the north of the Bahamas by mid week.

Early Evening Forecast Discussion

Precipital water has dropped this evening to 1.84" which might explain the lack of activity along the east coast today (along with warmer 500mb temps than the past few days). But this will all change gradually during the course of Thursday and Friday.

We'll be in transition of a nil to slight favoring of the east coast Friday and especially Saturday thru Sunday, and with Bill wagging his tail (sfc trough) as he goes by it could get interesting in these parts. The impression I see is there will be a lingering trough with very light flow leaving room for a diurnally driven sfc trough to form down the spine during max heating with little flow aloft until Saturday when a strong SW flow returns to the state ... which will then favor the east coast for two days.

After that, as if this was written in stone..it's going to be back to using satellite/water vapor imagery to do mostly post-haste nowcasting as stuff will be coming off the ocean where there is no upstream data points.

In a nut shell..east coast or close to it for the weekend. Until then we'll have to succumb to the forces that be and play it on a nearly hourly basis since chances of precip will exist at any time but most likely late morning thru mid afternoon.

Tuesday, August 18 (10:35am)

NOW: Latest KSC sounding and local LDIS model reveals a very moist and moderately unstable airmass over East Central Florida this morning with no capping. Evidence is in the picture below taken at 8:30AM. Latest RUC analysis depicts a weak, low level trough embedded in the ESE steering flow which should be making "landfall" around 2pm this afternoon.......

TODAY:..... If we aren't unstable enough now, we will be then. Unlike the past two days, it looks more likely that showers could persist at any time today and into tonight. Heavier storms will be west of I-95 once the showers encounter some frictional drag as well as uplift from the heated landmass of the peninsula. Big Storm or two west of Orlando with heaviest threat being lightning in abundance and heavy rain. Storms should keep on marchin' though..so big time accumulations shouldn't occur execpt in areas that happen to get more than one dousing.

TOMORROW: More of the same. Looks more like a more significant tropical wave in association with "Remnant Ana" will pay a visit late tonight into Wendesday continuing if not increasing our chances of rain through the day and into the night. It is currently beginining to spread its ashes toward S. Florida.

FURTHER OUT: The overall pattern will start to shift from an "unpredictable stream of inverted troughs off the Atlantic"...to more of a "back to the continental trough digging south across the SE U.S" regime which has plagued us all summer. Placement, and therefore the resultant outcome, will be the factor in determining what each day will bring us. Thus, each day can be a new story. How exciting!

Had to throw in this photo of my cat, Lola. She loves her new necklace I bought for her yesterday.

August 17 (10:00am) -click for official Forecast Discussion for Cape Canveral Area

Went to the beach this mornig to watch the launch. Very nice. For today...

"In a nutshell" post: East Central Florida remains in subsidence behind remnant Claudette and ahead of the upper level low pressure area slowly approaching the Florida Straits. Given the fact that there were some showers around late yesterday afternoon, over night, and currently well off shore it's a good bet that this pattern will continue and in fact increase a bit throughout the day and tonight.

The overall available moisture has increased nicely since yesterday, so would expect greater coverage inland by late afternoon. 500mb temps are actually much cooler today so thunder isn't out of the question west of the state's spine.

Expect that given the deeper layer moisture off the Atlantic and cooler temps aloft, in combination with the lack of any intruding factors, that this pattern will continue with periods of showers dictated by "waving" motions in the mid-lower levels which generate the showers in cluster batches.