9:55AM (UPDATE)

As expected, an update is minimally required. Sounding this morning from TPA looks similar to yesterday morning. All things considered, it looks better than last nights but (again) similar to the morning's yesterday. So what I need to do is copy and paste my forecast for yesterday into today...you can read that. :-) Seriously though, if you read Tuesday's discussion further down it says it all.

The only thing really different from my earlier post for today is that there is yet another remnant vorticity max. coming down off the Florida Panhandle just like yesterday which adds another element of surprise into this afternoon's casserole. :-0

Perhaps, things will be closer to the coast then previously expected. Of course, yesterday I thought that under these circumstances something strong would possibly hit the coast in the strongest of storms, but that never materialized; however, today is a different day, and in today's case there's no guarantees either pro or con. This means one can be either disappointed or glad, depending on whether one wants it to rain or not.

(Off the Cuff: Models this season have continuously been seemingly 2-5 days ahead of themselves in the mid-long term forecasts, and even day to day changes in the short-term have been a smidge above being merely cosmetic in nature. Prime example is this past spring when the Death Ridge over the Plains was supposed to lift out during Vortex2's Romp on the Plains and it took a good 1 1/2 months for that to happen when data kept implying it would take no longer than 1 week.) Locally, our "East Coast of Florida Death Ridge" was supposed to have been in play initially a week ago shutting our convection down east of I-95, yet the ridge axis continues to fall short of shifting north beyond a Cape to Brooksville axis. Seems these short waves and nocturnal MCS impulses over the Plains and into the MidWest which are riding down the back of that stubbon upper level Hudson Bay low just prevent the trough from lifting out in totality. Much to this writer's glee.

BACK TO TODAY: Local analysis using LDIS (the link is off to the right in the 'Oft Used Links' column) actually shows some increased moisture over East Central Florida from earlier this morning in the Average Steering Flow/Moisture composite. I take this simply as verification that nothing much has really changed and that the environment is simply readjusting from last nights activity. I noticed that yesterday we also were a moisture bulls-eye shortly before initiation, but nothing actually happened here...so that's a "take it for what it's worth".

But for what it is worth, I'm pretty happy with today's sounding. It couldn't quite do what it looked like it would do yesterday...doesn't mean something more won't transpire today. Looks overall like 2-4 strong storms in Central Florida (maybe some will warrant a severe warning). The most likely guarantee will again be heavy rainfall in the blessed locales due to slow and eratic storm motion. Hope my rain gauge will be one of the blessed today :)

Maybe it will be a Manatee Park Chase Day, but definitely not hanging my hat on that one. Preferably I'd like that most not because of reduced driving, but the best looking storms are inevitably right on the coast as the gust front and remanent updrafts pass over the warm intercoastal waterways which stand upright against the seabreeze in the lowest 5000 feet.