(photo: Thursday Morning at Sunrise Looking Over the Atlantic)The weather scenario this morning from a purely meterological perspective is very exciting, but requires little elaboration as it is hoped that everything is fairly straight forward.
This mornings KSC Sounding (and a later 'special' launch) is painting a sporadically wet afternoon and early evening for almost all of East Central Florida. Although the atmosphere is totally saturated from ground to jet stream level there is little else going for us that would get something 'severe or strong' going. Additionally, based on the steering wind speeds, any prolonged heavy downpours will not sit in any one area for long. But rain chances appear to be very high nonetheless especially east of a north/south line running from Ocala to Okeechobee. Overall rain coverage at any one given time shouldn't be huge, but all persons east of that line have a good chance of experiencing at least a brief shower with big drops splotting down.,...and large rainfall amounts will be the result of repeated raindrop invasions.
Believe that with heating of the day that some of these 'showers' may also become lightning producers, and I wouldn't count out a waterspout either over the Atlantic, although winds might be too strong for that other than the strongest of spouts.
For Today: As of noon showers are already developing in the western fringes of the area outlined above, and are moving at a good 15-20mph clip toward the ESE. Coverage in the initiation area should continue and additional development can occur about anywhere else at the same time. By 3pm expect there will be some fast moving thunderstorms and lots of spotty rain showers across all of East Central Florida.
Not sure how late into the afternoon or early evening such prevalent conditions will exist, but it appears that before sunset the show will be over due to: 1) drier air aloft moving in 2) extensive cloudiness cutting off the instability supply 3) areas previously rained on will have stabilized and become unfavorable for further onslaughts.
Later Tonight and Tomorrow: The jury is somewhat hung as to what Monday will bring. But a few factors seem to be a given. The overall air mass will have dried out and the steering flow will be from the NW to NNW (not coming from a moisture source such as the Gulf or Atlantic). NW flow along east central Florida can be very interesting though if the right parameters are in place, but at this time I'd give us a 3 in 10 chance of such to occur. It could very well be a completely rain free day other than a few isolated storms, but as you know..it only takes one on your head to make it a rainy day.
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