(Above shows the recorded rainfall totals for my precise location so far this month as submitted to CoCoRAHS)*(New Info: I've since updated some blog settings and can now immediately email any significant changes worth noting directly to the blog for auto-updates. Nifty)
Not breaking any records today...just sounding like one that keeps playing over and over again. And not much change in the future either so better like the song because otherwise it's going to drive you crazy. Just like any record, it has its share of nicks and scratches to provide barely detectable variety, but the same song is still playing.
Morning sounding again shows significant drying and warm air aloft at just about 10,000 feet at most with moisture trapped beneath it like steam under a layer of Glad Wrap. Over that there isn't much too work with either, so what that means is that based on the steering currents, activity will drift on shore and weaken as it does so into what will be just barely discernible rain showers up until maybe 3pm.
It's tempting to say the generic "after that the focus shifts inland" but I don't really see that inland will see anything at all today. There is a slightly better chance in the Tampa area from about 5pm-10pm, but after that this area will also meet the Grim Reaper for Rain.
Some folks are watching what was once Fred (what?! that thing is still around?)...and indeed one model brings the bulk of it's now hapless life-form smack dab into East Central Florida between Monday night and Tuesday morning. Whereas, another model leaves it even less identifiable and takes its ashes northward into coastal North Carolina. For now, I think the funeral occurred and is over for Fred and we'll see close to no change in the weather no matter which way it goes. I will say one thing though for those two models..it does make sense that if it goes further north it's even weaker than if it stays further south. But for now I'll have no problems putting the nightcap on and sleeping well and just plain forgetting the whole thing. Meaning that those who don't won't rain other than over night and early morning coastal showers should be delighted for at least the next week!
It's a stretch to forecast out that far, but given the time of year such patterns tend to entrench themselves quite vigorously and won't let go. In fact, unless something tropical comes this way we won't see any change at all until the first cold front of the season makes it here.
WHAT! Cold front?! That's right. It's getting to be that time. In fact, from all my experiences here we can get the first one sometime within the last week of September. The generic low temperature here for such occasions is 67 degrees. Don't ask me why, but there is something magical about that temperature. Used to love those days when I was in grade school. So excited about putting on one of those cozy sweaters in the morning before school, only to be roasting in it when it was time to come home that afternoon.
