Departing clouds along the beach access path this morning
Looks like a pocket of upper level energy just moved offshore at sunrise this morning. In its wake is a clearing sky and calm wind. That, in combination with some temporary drying of the atmosphere, should yield to a pretty nice morning across the Space Coast until noon time with a light sea breeze moving in by late morning (with minor exceptions as noted below).
Noon time on: this time frame may yield to some pretty interesting weather. The stationary boundary across Central Florida is still there from roughly an Oak Hill location along the east coast to just north of Tampa Bay and south of Brooksville on the west coast. An upper level pocket of energy moving in off the eastern GOM (Gulf of Mexico) is riding along this boundary and appears to moving in an ENE-NE fashion and rapidly approaching the Florida SW Coast. This 'activity' seems to have latched on to what ever was over W. Cuba as well, and the entire ensemble will take a swipe enmasse across most of the peninsula starting late morning and into the afternoon and evening as it progresses in a general NE fashion during the course of the day.
What does that mean for the Space Coast? The day will start off nice; nicer than the past two days...with big cumulus forming along a weak sea breeze by mid-late morning and possibly a shower over or near the rivers. This should be the course of the day with perhaps a thundershower forming around 1pm and thereafter. It's the 2-3pm time frame when that pocket of energy approaches and steering currents go from light and variable to a little more out of the SW along with an increase in moisture aloft that things get interesting. With increased moisture means an increase chance of rain, and for today, thunderstorms. Just exactly how this energy will evolve and mesh with the stationary boundary and heating of the day will be an interesting course of events from Tampa to Ft. Myers and across the state from West Palm Beach to Jacksonville later in the day. One thing seems to be a given, and that is the east half of the state will have more time for convective instability to mount than the west half of the state...so expect more thundery activity today than yesterday and possible training of rain/thunderstorm cells until past sunset...particularily from Titusville to Daytona Beach where the boundary lies.
What about Erika? Glad you asked. Seems at this point I'm willing to poke my head out of this hole in the ground and take a gander. Looks like Erika will stay weak and possibly just an open wave in the next 12-24 hours...but maintain some form of identity nonetheless. Appears it may make its presence none to Southeast and East Central Florida starting mid-late day Tuesday with increased rain chances and a healthy onshore E wind flow (mostly from pressure gradient winds as it meets the forces of high pressure to our north). The central portion of the state may be in the NE quadrant of whatever is left of the system which could spell a lot of rain for up to 48 hours as it completely washes out over the state. More to come on this potential area of interesting outcomes.
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