(shown-one model's forecasted position of our future low and fronts Saturday morning)Cyclogensis (development of a surface low) does indeed appear to be in full swing along the Texas southeast coast this morning, as was forecast by the models for many days. Kind of amazing when one thinks about it. This will be the 'story' of the day through the weekend as far as the weather around Florida is concerned. It was mentioned Wednesday that a post probably wouldn't be necessary for Thursday...thus, no post. Actually, today isn't really necessary either but now that changes are looming (developing) just across the 'small pond" (Gulf of Mexico) its worth a blurb or two to get the weekend started.
Today: Temperatures, wind, and clouds all pretty much status quo with the past two days. Many areas had fog this morning so as that burns off expect to see some of the lower stuff around until late morning at least (maybe until the 12-1pm time frame)..but a high/mid level cloud mix will be the most prevalent throughout the day. Wind again to maintain a northerly component at 10mph or less but primarily NNE-NE, and maybe a bit stronger across and near the big rivers. There are some rain showers just off the coast this morning, but at this time it does not appear they will penetrate the coast. Tonight will be another night with the potential for fog development sometime after midnight across all of Central Florida, but this will be of little to no impact to anyone other than the very early riser who needs good visibility, but of no impact for taking the dog for a walk.
Saturday: Other than the morning fog and low clouds, Saturday will again be a low-end weather impact day. Wind should start to gain more of an easterly component though...and eventually a southeast component as we head toward sunset. More clouds to stream overhead in advance of the currently developing surface low, which by late Saturday will have developed and be somewhere near the southern border of Louisiana as it shifts ENE. We may see a big increase in clouds as somewhat of a warm front wraps northward up the state ahead of this feature, and shower activity shouldn't be entirely discounted, especially from Sarasota south to Ft. Myers during the day. Believe at this time that any such activity that could affect us will refrain from doing so until after sunset Saturday. Over night we lose the onshore component of the wind altogether and get into a moist, gooey feeling SW wind with more clouds and maybe a shower.
Sunday: This day will be primarily a "here comes du front" day...with SW-WSW winds all day..getting up to 15-20mph in gusts at times...mostly cloudy and some showers around. Don't know about thunder though. Still think that potential will only provide such generosities to the latitude of Gainesville to Daytona and points north as delineated on Wednesday. The front will drag its mucky heals attained by crossing the wet Gulf across us until at least mid-day Monday.
After that, say the Monday-Thanksgiving day time frame..we will influenced mostly by high pressure planted across the southeast states with a return to northeast winds. ..the windiest of which my actually be Thanksgiving Day. Just exactly how much cloudiness and maybe even a rain shower along the coast will be associated with the wind is still out for the jury to decide, but let it be known that at this point Thanksgiving Day could very well not be pristine or anywhere close to it. But most of the day is usually spent inside anyway...so let nature do its thing.
As for the title of today's post? It seems that although no cold air will be associated with this coming front/low pressure couplet, it will reinforce what we already have over us...that is to say...coolish air (pleasant temperature wise)..with no sight of what some would consider 'uncomfortably warm' in sight.
Post-Thanksgiving?: Still appears a good 'snap' of air below the 'cool threshold' is in the offing. Just as it did a few days ago. Being as this is a week away, it would be irresponsible to provide a definitive assertion of just exactly when and how noticeable the change will be. Suffice it say though, that the likelihood of fall impinging upon us even further its gentle reminder that summer is GONE looms in the macrocosm of the atmospheric realm (i.e., to those that wish for eternal summer).
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