Like a Musical Instrument...Forecasts Need Fine Tuning Too

(above showing fronts, radar, and satellite images as of noon Sunday)

The stationary front that meandered across the central portion of the state yesterday got its long awaited nudge to the north overnight and is now being manifested as a warm front (for the time being) across the panhandle. The area of most likely rain, as mentioned since Thursday, is indeed very close to the forecasted position along the Gainesville to Daytona line as one can see from the included radar depiction and enhanced cloud cover via the satellite image.

Although right at ground level the wind will maintain an east to southeast trajectory today, just over our heads they are shifting to being from the southwest as I write. Believe those winds and moisture amounts at cloud level along with heating from the sunbeams above will keep some midlevel clouds in and out throughout the day. Fear not from the rain though. At least not yet. Animation of that rain area is showing no southward progression as it runs parallel to the front and the jet stream level winds. That surface low is going to have to be close to home before we start to see rain, but forewarned is forearmed...as that time may indeed be approaching from 5pm on...through Wednesday for the most part.

Decided that today I'd take the optimistic (conservative) approach as far as rain goes. Perhaps sticking the arm out too far for comfort, but going for no rain again today until near sunset as mentioned above. Even then, it could hold off (if ever) until after midnight. Suffice it say that the chance is present and can no longer be ignored this evening. The good news is, is that we will have comfortable temperatures for 3-4 more days. Just lots of clouds and the omnipresent potential for rain. Also on the optimistic side, I'm discounting the possibility of hearing thunder despite what I'm hearing on The Weather Channel as I type. For the most part, unless one were to update the blog every 3-6 hours to be 'most' accurate (especially by later this afternoon), I'm leaving it to the reader to be advised of the potentials arising later today. It's often tempting to do an update as I see changes developing to provide the latest, but I believe folks are capable of turning on TV and seeing radar for themselves. You see, forecasting when it comes to the short term variety, is not unlike fine tuning a musical instrument before the show...tighten here...turn a valve there...until perfect pitch is reached. The atmosphere is an ever changing fluid, especially in these situations...so perfect pitch may never be reached...leaving a sour note to the listener's ear. Let it be known that two models I looked at this morning are both indicating a decent chance of rain for east central Florida by 6-8pn tonight, and in one case almost all night (that won't happen, but just to give you an idea of what we're dealing with).

Such will be the case: clouds, rain, and temperature wise through Wednesday. I don't see any big warm up in the offing either with highs in the mid-80s as I'm hearing. Too many clouds combined with the slight onshore wind component precludes that possibility close to the coast, but perhaps inland could see low around 82-83 today with the coast 78-81 (at best). The warmest of air will be found from just north of Lake Okeechobee and points south. Lows to remain near 70 (only got down to 73 on my porch last night).

Thanksgiving will be the big transition day. So probably more clouds to contend with most of the day and envisioning 'sig' clearing near sunset. The forthcoming cold front may actually push through by very early in the day yet linger very close by until a mid-upper level push catches up with this surface feature late in the day. We'll first be hearing about the colder air approaching via our friends in the Central and Southern Plains into Alabama and Mississippi on Wednesday and Thursday..."Thar She Blows!"... and once it does, we'll know it here too.

Okay, here's where I'm going to diverge even futher from everything I've been hearing through the grapevine, that being the temperatures on Friday and Saturday. Numerical guidance is suggesting much warmer than what's being graphically depicted...and that's what I'm buying into. Namely, on Friday we might be hard pressed to reach 65...at best. Maybe not even 60!? This is a good 7-10 degrees colder than what is being advertised.. And that temperature will be combined with a decent NW wind at 12-20mph, so if heading to the Art Festival this Friday or Saturday you're going to want a light jacket or sweater. Basically, cold air advection (or moving in of it) will be occuring all day Friday..so we might start out in the mid's 50s in the morning then barely crack 60 by days end as colder air is filter southward along the leading edge of high pressure building in from the west. Saturday-Monday all look to be very cool, but with afternoon temperatures moderating a bit, but nothing tremendously comfortable. Not a cold blast, but definitely a cool one.

And so it goes as posted a few days ago, "the next two weekends will not be as pristine" as the one we had last week (this week being the cloudy one with looming rain chances, and next weekend being the cool/cold one).

On a P.S. - the weather radio alarm just went off. Seems a waterspout was spotted well offshore the coast of Ft. Pierce just about 5 mintues ago. Neat!