The Native Americans called it the Full Wolf Moon. In the coldest time of winter, wolf packs were heard howling hungrily around the villages. Also known as Hunger Moon, Old Moon, Moon After Yule, or Full Snow Moon.
TODAY: We're right on track for the day with a high in the mid-70s under a generous mix of low, mid, and upper level clouds...but no rain. The low this morning along east central Florida bottomed out around 58-59 degrees (a good 4-5 degrees warmer than yesterday). Areas further north near Ocala were 10+ degrees warmer. As such, the high temperature will follow suite with a high in the mid 70s and even upper 70s in some inland locales. Some low level clouds associated with somewhat of a combination of a pseudo warm front along with a very weak inverted trough off the coast have joined forces and are gradually working there way north and east along the east coast and will eventually disappear altogether as stronger southerly winds aloft over come the area by late in the day. About the only evidence of this 'so called boundary' was an increase in the lower level clouds (stratocumulus) which already seem to be dissipating from the area. Light N-NE winds earlier in the day will eventually shift to ESE by day's end but will be of no consequence as they will remain on the very light side.
TONIGHT - EARLY SATURDAY: Very mild! Winds will eventually become more assuredly southerly if not SSW by early morning under continued variable sky conditions. We will remain rain free during this time frame. The low will not fall below 60 degrees tonight. Nice. It would be nice to see the Full Wolf Moon tonight...if we have a chance to (officially at 1:18am EST). I think there will be ample breaks in the cloud decks to, at a minimum, catch some good glimpses of it. From what I read, this is supposed to be the largest full moon of the year since the moon will be at it's closest point in its orbit around the earth.
SATURDAY: Here we go again. The approaching cold front will be in the western-central Florida panhandle. A good cloud shield will be overspreading the area...but for the most part Central and South Florida will remain rain free. By noon areas to our north, particularly from an Ormond Beach - Crystal River line will likely be receiving rain and a few embedded rumbles of thunder. Rain chances go up for the Central Peninsula, mainly on the west half of the state, by early to mid afternoon. But for the most part, those east of Orlando could very well hold off on the rain until well after sunset. Not to say there can't be some errant showers earlier..but any that do materialize will be few and far between. The high will likely again reach the mid-upper 70s...contingent upon just exactly how much cloud coverage there is between 11am-2pm which could vary at any given location. The wind for the entire day will be southwesterly and occasionally gusting into the 20+ mph range over open areas. But for the most part..nothing remarkable.
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY: This is the period that the best chance of rainfall is anticipated. In line with yesterday, I'm going to hold fast to the notion that chances of thunder south of the Crystal River - Ormond Beach line will be very remote..with a slightly higher chance along the west coast as far south as somewhere between St. Pete and Sarasota. The diffuse and wide frontal boundary will take a good part of the midnight to 8am hours to completely traverse through Central Florida; therefore, expect it to be completely overcast with elevated chances of rain. I'm noticing today that again there is the implication that parts of Central Florida may very well not receive any rainfall at all. By late afternoon Sunday all over Central Florida we'll be waving goodbye to the front as it sinks down into the Southern Peninsula. But no need to cry...it's not leaving us for good.
LATE SUNDAY - LATE WEDNESDAY: The front will make it into the Florida Straits and eventually drift back north in some remnant form or another on TUESDAY and remain a thorn in the forecasters' side through Wednesday. This thorn will come in the form of trying to figure out if or when we will see some rain or perhaps some thunder, as well as the amount of cloud coverage that will exist. Temperatures won't be a problem though.
Seems there will be no cold air intrusion...not any time within the next week --although they will be shoved down just a smidgen. Pleasantly cool (two words combined that don't make sense..to me). Not warm, not cold. In fact, very little variation between morning lows and afternoon highs are anticipated (at least not from what one could normally experience), especially Tuesday and Wednesday...ranging generally between 60-70 degrees round the clock on those days along the coast ..but into the mid-50s west of the rivers and over toward the west coast. Warmer over the southern 1/3 of the state...cooler (much so) over the northern 1/3. Not until what looks like Thursday does the whole mess clear out in prelude with the next system to approach the area.
It will be fun to monitor to see what everything amounts to beginning tomorrow afternoon. I don't say it enough...but do remember that all forecasts and musings are of strictly my own and not from our friends at the National Weather Service. My twist(s) are an attempt to include down to more of the mesoscale level how ultimately coastal weather can vary from the 'west of the rivers' land area in Central Florida (for the most part).
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