Photo: Sunrise this morning off Harrison Ave., Cape Canaveral, FL)
Not surprisingly, the thaw has begun. We hung a full 6 degrees warmer last night than previous mornings and bottomed out at 43 degrees here. Warm enough to go to some sunrise photos. Yes, perhaps the guillotine won't be needed as referred to yesterday. And it just gets better from here, as we may be even 5 degrees warmer Thursday morning.
Thursday - Friday: This period will be characterized with winds finally swinging around to the NE-E as high pressure moves east across the Deep South and a developing storm system begins to take shape in the far SW Gulf of Mexico. As a result, night time lows will continue to warm as will the afternoons; however, do not believe the immediate coast will as warm as numerical model guidance suggests due to the fact that, last I looked, the ocean temperature was around 49 degrees (brrr...to toe dipping in those iceberg waters here). Regardless, both days will be progressively warmer than the previous. During this time will introduce some high level cirrus beginning to overspread the region as well as some coastal low level stratocumulus clouds. Models are actually showing rainshowers right along the Cape, but I do not believe that scenario will evolve due to both the fact there is a lot of moist recovery to be done as well as the fact that the ocean waters are now so cold after this last 'deep freeze'.
Saturday: It should be noted that with every consecutive model run, the yet to evolve storm system forms progressively later and thus affects our area later. Thus, Saturday should not be the total washout as previously forethought. It will be cloudy and even warmer (in fact, the warmest of all the days we've seen or will see for a while). There could be some scattered showers near the coast by this time as air mass modification will have been in affect for a solid 24 hours by then). The chance of showers, particularly in Eastern Brevard, will remain throughout the day. There is a chance that a prefrontal band of thunderstorms (perhaps severe) could enter the picture shortly after sunset Saturday. But the crux of rain will occur during the dark hours into early Sunday Morning.
As noted earlier, model runs have been lagging with each run...so the time-frame for all the previous mentioned events may end up occurring even later (i.e., the real rains do not arrive until nearly sunrise Sunday if this trend continues).
After the front/storms: No big temperature drops. In fact, they should just hang right around normal for this time of year with lows near 50 and highs near 70 for quite some time. Dry rain wise. FINALLY!
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