Above images: KSC 7am Sounding, forecast images showing fronts/rain and the low level jet at the 925mb level, and latest radar.
Mary Poppoins could have a field day today if she could get caught in a good updraft!! As mentioned yesterday, it looked like today could be a very active weather day. Nothing has changed from that reasoning for such to occur and, in fact, later tonight into very early Saturday we very well could revisit similar conditions.
TODAY/TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Cloudy, breezy, and damp conditions this morning are harbingers of the incoming rain. First off! It should be noted that the short term model (RUC) is indicating No Rain for the majority of the day. So I'm keeping that possibility in the back of my mind. However, upon running a radar loop...the echos showing up along the west coast are moving steadily eastward...so that possibility might have to be discounted. The National Weather Service (NWS) has stated, and I quote:
"FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS DURING THE DAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALSO AID IN PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BECAUSE OF THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO SPAWN A TORNADO."
All of the above is EXTREMELY realistic considering what is currently materializing ala the KSC Sounding. Timing places the onset of potentially severe conditions to ensue between 10am-12pm, but not necessarily at your location.
Conditions for nasty weather should wane by late afternoon; however, rain could and porbably will continue.
The following is quoted from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) based in Norman, OK.
"DESPITE MODEST CAPE...GIVEN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT AND DEGREE OF BOTH LOW-LVL AND DEEP SHEAR...SETUP WILL SUPPORT SHORT LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/SUPERCELLS. THESE MAY PRODUCE BOTH TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND GIVEN STRENGTH OF LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND LARGE LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN. WHILE THE SVR THREAT MAY DIMINISH THIS EVE...THE THREAT MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS THE LLJ REDEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE."
What this all means is that the current setup which contains deep shear with height in a very moist environment SUPPORTS supercell thunderstorms which can generate tornadoes and strong wind gusts. This threat should begin to take shape near noon time then diminish by early evening...but yet another disturbance in the flow will again enhance the LLJ (Low Level Jet) and create similar conditions during the wee hours of Friday.
This is what a severe weather enthusiast lives for!
FRIDAY: This period will require major refinement today being potentially a BIG day....and possibly Friday as well...as many things can change. So let's just jump to Saturday.Note that I have stressed potentially....this does not mean it WILL occur..or if it does not necessarily at your location.
SATURDAY: Conditions for severe weather will have passed. The day will start out cloudy with lingering rain showers around, but conditions will gradually improve as the day wears on. One good thing out of all this...NO COLD WEATHER ON THE HORIZON.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: Uneventful and nice.
Please remain abreast with your local media resources since conditions can change very rapidly given the dynamics that the atmosphere contains today...you'd never know it to step outside though.
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