The "Umbrella Index" Scale Has Been Activated

Image: A Colorado Sunset taken in May, 1999

The strong high pressure that has had it's grip on the state finally lost control yesterday as thunderstorms developed over the interior late on Sunday. The remnant storm debris washed off to the east as we went into the evening providing portions of coastal East Central Florida with something known as rain...remember what that is?

SYNOPSIS: An upper level disturbance now over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico will pass over head today. Moisture is abundant at multiple levels of the atmosphere. Sea breezes will develop along both coasts. A weak frontal boundary is also approaching from the west.


TODAY: High end on the "Umbrella Index" scale. The aforementioned disturbance will begin to exert its influence across the peninsula early in the day and overspread the state by late morning.

Winds will remain SSE-S most of the day away from any shower/storm activity.

Partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy skies early will give way to cloudy conditions. Very good chance of rain or thunderstorms before the noon hour

across pretty much every where in Central Florida as the disturbance passes overhead in tangent with daytime heating. Widespread activity might stabilize the atmosphere somewhat which would preclude and chance of strong storms, but that upper level disturbance bears close scrutiny as we get toward the noon time hour through early afternoon.

In any case, I wouldn't go anywhere today without an umbrella. It's possible that once the system passes overhead the atmosphere will have generally rained itself out...and we will just be left with cloudy skies for the late afternoon and into the evening. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see a regeneration of activity along the east coast late in the afternoon into the early evening if the sea breezes can coverage late in the afternoon and shove any developing activity from that collision back toward the coast.

Yeah I know, kind of a flaky forecast. But the atmosphere is being somewhat flaky today...just a big glob of disorganized moisture overhead. The disturbance will be the main kicker...

And temperatures? No big deal. Same as its been for days although they will be tempered down a few degrees due to increased cloud coverage. Suffice it to say we won't be needing the parkas or ear muffs anytime soon. I'd say if you haven't stored them away yet you might as well because, dang, it's almost summer! Sure was a long winter wasn't it?

TUESDAY: The disturbance will have moved off to the east...but moisture will still be hanging around...with a light SSE wind component we could see some regeneration of afternoon thunderstorms east of Orlando and along the coast from Oak Hill south to Miami during the afternoon hours. But coverage will not be nearly as great as it will be today (Monday). Still no changes to the temperature regime.

WEDNESDAY: Maybe a chance of isolated activity again east of Orlando and down the coast, but the chance will be even less than it will be on Tuesday.

I wouldn't make any change in plans if you want to do outdoor activities. Chances are greater that we won't see a drop of rain than see one. Consider yourself the unlucky one if you do get the wet stuff.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Very little chance of rain with temperatures maintaining the comfortable level of the past week.