(A Florida thunderhead wears a crown of pileus in the late afternoon)Although there have been some minor changes in the past 48 hours they aren't of the genre that have influenced the local weather here on the ground. A mid-latitudinal level trough is weakly reflected at the surface as it presses east and south through the mid-Atlantic region into Georgia, and the TUTT low mentioned the other day continues to spin and drift westward and is now located over the north-central Bahamas. Meanwhile, Hurricane Alex has begun the anticipated turn toward the west as will likely make landfall on the Mexican Coast.
SYNOPSIS: We might be starting to see the affects of (1) the TUTT low as per latest from the KSC sounding as I write. Winds at the anvil level have picked up significantly out of the NNE since yesterday which appears to be induced by the circulation around the NW periphery of this feature. Water vapor loops are also showing quite nicely the circulation; however, the drying subsidence result of the low are also being reflected and showing to be encroaching on the offshore waters as we speak. (2) The trough traversing through the mid-Atlantic states and eventually into the Atlantic. As mentioned several times during the past week the GFS was indicating that this trough would push a cold front ...or a trough of lower surface pressures...into the Deep South and even Florida. The NAM has begun to fall in line with this scenario although not quite as aggressively. It does appear that the mid-level trough will make it down to at least Central Florida as we work into the weekend...however, dynamics associated with it are about as close to benign as one can get. Between the TUTT low and this trough the ridge that has been overhead, it now appears, will come to its inevitable demise by the Friday-Saturday time frame. Just exactly what will happen after that at the very local level is nearly impossible to ascertain at this point. But as we stay focused on the shorter term:
TODAY: Much like the past few days. The atmosphere has changed very little from yesterday and might have actually dried just a smidgen. Winds in the mid levels are nearly nil in association with the decaying ridge axis...where as much higher up they have really picked up out of the NNE. All in all, the start to the day should be similar to the past few days. Expect we can once again see some shower activity go up along the west shores of the Indian River (along US 1) and points west of there before noon time anywhere in Brevard or Indian River Counties, but don't anticipate these to be anywhere close to the 'strong thunderstorm' category. As we work into the early afternoon the east coast sea breeze will have set its wheels in motion and begun to propagate well inland toward the Orlando area...scouring out the immediate east coast of any possible rainfall as it does.
About the only difference the coastal communities might see from the past few is that we will not see the cirrus/anvil blow off umbrella overhead today by late in the afternoon...as the TUTT low inches in every so closely, drying aloft is increased, and the direction of the winds aloft will not be favorable for anvil debris transfer in this way.
On the other hand, the west half to 3/4s of the state will see their status quo of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, primarily west of a Lake Okeechobee-Orlando-Ocala axis...along with most of the panhandle region. This would include areas such as Port Charolette, Ft Meyers, Sarasota, Tampa, The Villages, and about anywhere in Lake County. In essence, the area LEAST likely to see good storm coverage or any strong activity is right here at home central (a.k.a. - east central Florida.)
FURTHER OUT: We haven't had rain in Cape Canaveral since June 7th! So when will it finally rain here and other areas near-by? I'll just say a sentence or two concerning this increasingly irritating subject. Nothing stands out and things are looking pretty pitiful. Nothing stands out to negate the fact that it COULD rain county wide...but then again, nothing screams "RAIN" either. I'm expecting to hear about rainfall chances increasing over the media in the next couple of days...but I have this bug in my ear whispering that this is going to be one of those scenarios where that although moisture in the atmosphere will be increasing, particularly by Friday, that it will only manifest itself as increased cloud coverage which will negate what could otherwise be a period of active thunderstorms. The proof is in the pudding so that say, so I'd really like the atmosphere to stir it up good and get things perking so we can get some tasty atmospheric samplings around here. But we need all the ingredients.
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