Thunderstorms On The Increase Today Through Sunday!

(Gust front over Osceola County from a severe thunderstorm)

The ridge of high pressure aloft and at the surface that has been over the state has weakened considerably and become almost nonexistent over the peninsula over night. A portion of it aloft exists over the Gulf and the other portion is well out in the Atlantic, leaving the peninsula in a COL, void of any steering currents aloft. On the other hand, the atmosphere is forecast to become much more moisture laden aloft today in the absence of the ridge. The richer, available moisture and increased atmospheric instability will be the classic breeding ground for afternoon and early evening thunderstorms today. Early afternoon temperatures along the coast will be especially uncomfortable today because of a later onset of the sea breeze! Makes for great lawn mowing...NOT!

This morning's surface data indicates a weakened trough of low pressure extends from ENE to WSW across the central peninsula (i.e., from near Titusville to just north of Sarasota). This in combination with a thermal trough which will extend down the spine of the state by late afternoon, could generate some good storm coverage over East Central Florida by late afternoon. Storms will be significant lightning producers and may produce some very small hail and marginally severe wind gusts.

Most favored area for storms today will be just along and west of I-95, but can't count out the immediate coast entirely. Storm motion will be dictated by propagation along the sea breeze boundary and eventually by outflow from earlier collapsed storms. Further inland storm motion will be additionally dictated by lake breeze boundaries combined with all the aforementioned ones.

Wouldn't be surprised to see an outflow boundary induced pseudo-gust front formation meander toward the coast (not accompanied by rainfall). These can look interesting but harbor nothing but cloudiness in the long run. Other wise, areas west of I95 (and maybe even US1) should be the areas must likely to bare the brunt of some respectable thunderstorms today.

Thunderstorm activity will continue to be more likely than the past week has been through Sunday. Beyond Sunday, it appears that the ridge of high pressure will become re-established across the northern part of the state (and eventually even further north) and a more persistent on-shore flow will be developing, favoring the west half of the state for any thunderstorm activity that could develop. On the other hand, the east coast could be more likely to see early-late morning coastal shower activity beginning Tuesday. That possibility will have to be looked into further as the time approaches.