New Year's Day Will Be All Right - Followed By The Chilly Bite

Depiction from the Global Forecast System (GFS) for the surface layer of the atmosphere for New Year's Day morning.
A cold front will be approaching the SE states and Florida as well...Monday morning.

NOW: Florida is now being encompassed by high pressure at the surface and upward into the middle levels of the atmosphere. The air within the high pressure is also rather dry, so as it can be seen upon a glance outside, the clouds are few and far between. Additionally, the wind is nearly calm at times. Does it get any better than this! (that is not a question). The same conditions will prevail for New Year's Day, but the high pressure area will be shrinking in size and strength in prelude to the very big local weather change which is on the approach for the entire state.


NEW YEAR'S DAY:  Much like today sums it up, perhaps a few degrees warmer, with light to calm winds at time. Dewy in the morning. Epic with few clouds.


MONDAY: Based solely on the afternoon run of the GFS model which is just becoming available as I write, the model is showing that a cold front , the cold front, will be located closely in the area of Central Florida during sunrise Monday. Timing naturally as to exactly when remains a small question, but in the big picture is rather irrelevant. The point is, behind the front is when the 'big change' in temperatures will occur. I would not expect given the circumstances shown in the moisture fields, that we will have any precipitation with the front -- mostly a band of clouds in association with moisture just ahead, along, and just behind the surface front. Winds behind the front will be from the NW, with little to no temperature rise once that front goes through..even with full sunshine at noon due to cold air advection (cold air moving in). Mixing of this cold air moving in under clearing skies in the afternoon could result in a very cool and breezy mid-late afternoon with temperatures falling through the 50Fs (which is a good 20F colder than those of today and tomorrow). In short, it looks like jackets and sweaters will be needed on Monday, especially later in the day out of wind protected areas.


TUESDAY: Coldest statewide morning of the year and season, and only 2 days into it. 2012 is starting our fresh, crisp, clear, and cold. Air mass will not only be cooling, but drying. The Wind will let up on Tuesday after a cold start with lows in the mid-upper 30Fs most areas...working toward the lower to mid-40Fs along the immediate coast of the outer most barrier islands of Brevard County southward. Tuesday will be very cool to cold all day, hardly working through the mid-50Fs except toward South Central Florida and further yet south. Becoming very cool to cold again as the sun begins to set due to the dry nature of the air mass as winds decrease with the setting sun.


WEDNESDAY: Much like Tuesday with a cold start. Frost might become an agricultural issue inland areas along the NW side of Lake Okeechobee northward across the breadth of the state except along the coasts south of Titusville. This might very well be the coldest day yet, with temperatures at or just a few degrees cooler than the previous morning.


THURSDAY: Another cool morning, but the full impact of this cold air surge will begin to be released up and away, hence, a slow warming trend. By the weekend, it looks quite nice with seasonal temperatures not too far off from recent days. There is no rain being portrayed into the second week of January. Too soon to say, naturally, if that will be the case; but, given the current set up and lessons learned from previous years, it seems that at least this  pre-conceived notion would warrant some merit.


I Hope Your Past Year was Everything You Had Hoped It Would Be and More. And if not, We Can Hope that This Coming Year Will Certainly Be At Least Better if Not Much More That That. Happy 2012 

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Much Cooler Air Is Approaching Today - Adjustments

  Blue is in general the current location of a cold front moving down the state. In yellow  is an estimate of  where this frontal boundary will be located within an hour or so after sunset.  The front will then continue through the remainder of the state past midnight 

TODAY: Last day of temperatures in the solid 70Fs for a few days for the most part for North and North Central Florida, with a dividing 70F isotherm for highs to set up across South Central Florida in the days ahead, cooler north of that line. Highs south of that line will remain in the lower-mid 70Fs (mainly along and south of a line from West Palm Beach toward Sarasota, or so).


Cold front moving in with a pretty big pattern change for Florida in regard to the temperatures. The day time highs in the upper 70Fs and lower 80Fs which have been above normal will be cooling to at and just below normal, mainly for the afternoons...for a few days. As can be seen with the image above, the boundary proper between the surface to elevations a few thousand feet above the ground is fairly broad, with clouds moving into Central prior to the actual front proper.


 There are some showers and sprinkles with the front, possibly some gustier winds due to the strong winds aloft associated with the supporting upper level features (troughs) aloft. Other than than, overall atmospheric moisture is really not all so impressive. If it were summer, we would not be looking for rain chances at all today. But it is not summer, is it? Highs today for Central and especially south can get in to the lower 80Fs, but mid-upper 70Fs will be most prevalent in areas not over-ridden by clouds prior to 1PM today.


SW winds will shift to west within the boundary, and become WNW-NW after passage. Atmospheric moisture will slowly dwindle (or dry out) with time, and combined with the cold air influx associated with the front itself, we will be having to contend with an attitude and clothing adjustment, especially during the hours before noon time or around 11AM in coming days. 


Lows in the mid-upper 40Fs Central/North Central, and yet cooler still North Florida, except closer to 50F from Cape Canaveral and South toward the immediate coast along and mainly east of US1. Winds not too terribly strong, but it will be cooler on Wednesday through Saturday morning closely reaching the same temperature regime until that time as winds weaken and slowly become more NE-E on Saturday and Sunday. At which point, there is a warming trend.


Outside of this front today, there is yet another to swing through in perhaps another 48--60 hours which will mostly pass through un-noticed other than to prevent what would otherwise be a warming trend. Thus, the longer duration of cooler air. In fact, in the longer range, there is yet another front showing face per the overnight run of the GFS (Global Forecast System) model output.; that too, looks to go through dry. 


Winter is here now for sure with temperatures just below normal , then rising toward near normal, then falling again by later toward late week. So far though, no extremes varying vastly from climactic norms are foreseen. No frost or freezes in the cards. Just a minor attitude adjustment and an opportunity to wear some of the clothes that have been hanging in the back trenches of the closet which have not been needed for much of the season so far. New Years is not posing a problem as of the recent run other than good weather for wearing festive apparel.

Let All Good Tidings Tell, It Will Not Be Cold (yet)

TODAY-CHRISTMAS: Bustling few days ahead on the ground, but aloft a mere weakening cold front will be shifting south and east through today into Central this afternoon and tonight. Very little change in temperatures behind the front, only small cooling. 


South of the front today it will be warm with a SW breeze and highs possibly into the lower 80Fs except down wind of any cooler body of water. Partly cloudy sky except the Panhandle and portions of North Central toward Central late in the day as the front closes in where clouds will be of greater concentration. Very little to no rain with this boundary heading into Central Florida areas.


CHRISTMAS: More clouds expected with the front in the area. Winds will shift to the N-NE-ENE overnight and into tomorrow (Christmas Eve) for the "The Day of Days", but temperatures again will have little shifting influence to the feel...cooler though than those of today. Sprinkles are possible Central or South Central heading toward daybreak and through the day, but not an all day chance if, in fact, there it to be any at all. All in all, it will be a Peace On Earth day as far as the peninsula is considered in the realm of weather.


BEYOND: Still no raging cold air on the way is being depicted by the GFS model. It is getting toward those days of coldest, January. Time will tell, not the models at this point.

Truth or Consequences": In Weather It's Neither Nor

Colorized Schematic of Surface Temperatures Depicted Above with Orange toward Red being the warmest. In the next few days this will continue to be the case, that being, warmest overnight through mid-morning along the east coast from the Cape and South as SE-SSE winds continue. Afternoons warm all areas. Christmas Eve Day may yet be the warmest day of all with highs in the lower 80Fs in many areas 

TODAY:  Air Mass Modification in full swing since yesterday continues with winds having become more southeasterly as opposed to northerly on Sunday, modification in the sense that moisture in the lower levels is increasing and temperatures are becoming more comfortable (warmer if you like). This trend will continue through Christmas Eve day as noted yesterday. A cold front will approach from the Deep South region but never really be able to penetrate the bulbous region of high pressure located closely to that of a normal summer time regime, affectionately referred to as The Bermuda High which was amazingly more often than not absent during the summer months. In turn, cold winter like weather remains out of the equation for the time being, with temperatures running at to above normal through Christmas Eve Day, and potentially beyond.


THURSDAY/FRIDAY : The primary cold front is still being depicted to slide off and away from most of the state (to the north) , thanks to the high pressure zone across the state. Winds remain much like that of those today and tomorrow, with the air becoming warmer incrementally during this time frame. Highs in the mid-upper 70Fs depending on how close one is located to and downwind of the cooler Atlantic Waters and larger inland lakes - cooling of the waters occurs with the lower height/sun angle with the formal approach to Winter now on December 22 at 12:30AM (Thursday morning just after Midnight).


With continued SE-SSE low level wind flow, moisture will increase enough for the possibility of light showers near the coast around late Wednesday into Thursday, possibly further inland across South Florida with the ever present stratocumulus clouds possible, especially late morning through early evening. 


CHRISTMAS EVE/SATURDAY: Winds will slowly be veering from SSE (south south east) toward the SSW-SW on Saturday as the next cold front approaches (and high pressure starts to move out of the picture). This could result in a cooler morning east coast, but much warmer all areas by afternoon contingent upon the amount of cloud coverage over any specific area. 


CHRISTMAS DAY: Cold front/cool front still forecast to be stretched across Central to South Central during the day as the front undergoes frontalysis (washes out). This could place Central to South Florida (somewhere in there) in a position for rainshowers and just maybe some thunder. It does not look as much likely for thunder though as the model run (of the GFS) had portrayed yesterday. The ECMWF (European Model) had a fairly good rationalization yesterday, and the two models seem to be coming to some sort of agreement that this front will not have a significant impact to our temperatures, only slightly noticeable.


Best chance for rainfall now appears to be overnight Christmas Eve and through the day after Christmas, although if the trend continues...combined with a basis of past fronts so far this season..that chance could easily end up decreasing...but not completely.


BEYOND: Although we might experience some mid-upper 40Fs interior and the north half of the state before the end of 2011, the GFS has had a habit of overforecasting low temperatures in the extended (making them too cold), so not ready to ride with that one yet..it is just to hard to believe how fortunate the warm weather lovers have been so far since climatological winter began on December 1.  But, we have not reached Mid-January through Early February, the real indicator. Tables can turn quickly.


In the long range, the Truth is yet to be known (is it ever?), the Consequence as far as weather is concerned  will be based on the Truth, and the affects on us will be how well we take responsibility to be prepared for the Circumstances.  By watching the models, the sky, and sometimes nature we can see the signs of things to come and which way to head.

"Sometimes the correct fork depends on the Circumstances, but I do like the arrow pointing up toward Blue Sky" 

Very Warm With Possible Storms on Christmas Day?!

Morning Global Forecast System (GFS) Model Forecast for the surface at 7pm this evening shown above. Indications are 'on' for possible severe (orange) weather primarily in Central and SE Texas, with a broader expanse of thunderstorms as well (yellow roughly speaking). Florida's weather is being dictated by high pressure ENE of the state at the surface which will move a bit further east during the week.

TODAY- THURSDAY: Weather for most of the state between the remainder of today remains pleasantly benign albeit a bit breezy at times during the afternoon, especially near the coast and open larger inland lakes. Partly cloudy sky, no showers with highs ranging through the 70Fs. There is a small chance of enhanced cloudier periods toward the East Coast, with a possible spittle of drizzle or rain here or there from time to time by late Wednesday, but most likely could have foregone mention. East to ESE winds today gradually curve (veer) toward the ESE-SE then SSE by Thursday. Warmer around the 24 hours beginning overnight tonight when evening lows will not fall as low as previous days, especially along the east coast South of I-4. The trend continues statewide through Thursday, most warmly noticeable beginning Wednesday. Numbers on the temperatures really not necessary, whatever you've felt where ever you are located recently other than yesterday, will be similar to those.


The first official astronomical day of Winter will be on the 22nd of the month this year, or Thursday, technically as the clock reads. It is always somewhere within the 21st-22nd time frame. 

FRIDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY (SUNDAY): The low pressure area shown in today's graphic will be moving toward the NE as indicated. The trailing cold front in model runs of the GFS is showing less and less of a likelihood of ever impacting the state other than possibly the panhandle area with a rain chance. Otherwise, the remainder of the state remains fairly quiet with temperatures approaching above normal once again, the ongoing theme so far this season (and year as well). However, as the parent low moves NE ward toward New England, another system could form along it's tailing flank in the Deep South. It is that second system late in the week and into the weekend that will require closer scrutiny for potential  future 'impacts' statewide.


 Ironically, two of the first full days of full fledged "winter" could be close to the warmest we've experienced in some time, with highs reaching toward the upper 70Fs and low 80Fs, especially on Christmas Eve Day (Saturday). There is also a chance of showers and just possibly some thunder across Central or South Central Portions mid-late afternoon Saturday and into the evening. It is too early to say with any level of certainty given the number of days remaining until then. The situation does bear watching if for no other reason than well, let's face it, there has been nothing worth noting over the peninsula in quite some time other than a few periods of rain  showers and  flat topped stratocumulus clouds.     


The morning GFS run indicates the front to cross the state only slowly all through Christmas Day with possible thunderstorms, but for now will ride with rain-showers..with good coverage. This is all a new prognosis from the model though, so again, a few more model runs to go to gain greater certainty regarding Christmas. ..and will add the day after as well if this morning's run were to verify as truth.


BEYOND: Much cooler 'whenever' the front can go through. But again, this is a new evolution since previous days..and could easily shift back to 'benign weather' mode by this time tomorrow. Chances are this first system now in development in the Southern Plains region today is throwing a wrench into the equations. Thus low confidence outlook from Thursday and beyond.

Florida Cold Front Today (..and... For Christmas?)

"Here's Comes Da Front" - Light winds and good sunshine Central. This image from late morning shows clearly where the clouds exist, with Central in the 'clear' until mid-afternoon as front pulls into 'station' from the north and west. Some sprinkles
are possible with the boundary, as well as toward SE Florida, especially overnight toward Sunday morning SE Coast. Minimal Temperature impacts, mainly along and north of I-4.

TODAY: A very weak cold front is crossing the state today, but frankly other than the clouds as shown above, it is a bit difficult to discern on model guidance. The best tool was analysis of the mid-level wind fields and their forecast parameters combined with low level moisture content in the atmosphere. With those in mind, the drier low level/surface air will be moving through and down the state today through early Sunday, with the drier air moving into Dead Central toward Midnight with drier, and thus cooler air to follow through sunrise.


Otherwise, we could likely expect to see increasing clouds Central by mid-late afternoon into sunset, with more coverage all day South Central to South Florida. North Florida is already in the boundary and the clouds, which are already clearing in some areas, panhandle. More clouds again possible there though too, until after dark.


SUNDAY: NNW-NW winds around 10-15mph during the afternoon, scattered clouds by afternoon with highs maybe 2-5 degrees cooler than recent days. Morning lows also 2-4 degrees cooler immediate east coast south of I-4, with the coolest change to occur over the NW Quadrant of the state, including areas such as Ocala, Brooksville, NW of Orlando (as well as Orlando) and west toward Tampa, falling by 5-10 degrees more. 


Why is the front not going to make things all 'Christmas Cold' like? Recall, last year at this time it had already fallen below freezing along the beaches even.

Water Froze Over in Bird Bath 12/14/2010 in Cape Canaveral

Forecast position of front around 2000 ft above ground tonight. Note that the north winds are circulating low level air from South Texas northward then back south to Florida. This, as opposed to what a true 'Winter Blast" would have origins from, shown with the "X'd out Blue area indicating a north wind and jet stream from the Arctic Regions. Big Difference!

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Wind will veer from NW-NNW on Sunday toward the NNE-NE on Monday and eventually E-ESE byThursday. In light of that factor, wind will again be coming in off of the Atlantic Ocean waters instead of off the Polar Ice Cap. I don't see any Ice Bergs or Polar Bears floating offshore this morning, but did see some folks walking barefoot in the sand. In short, return to more of the same with the probable and seasonal afternoon and evening stratocumulus cloud decks re-emerging and moving slowly across and/ or forming over the state.


CHRISTMAS PRELIMINARY FORECAST: Wow, last I saw from the late night GFS (Global Forecast System model) run yesterday, the next bona fide cold front to move in will be on Christmas Eve. This was a relatively 'new' concept to the model...previous runs of the same model had been holding off on the colder air (possible 40Fs wide spread), so not quite ready to prepare the Yule Logs just yet. However, if one is hoping for the extra cold bite to the Christmas morning air, it just might be on tap. Either way, it is to last (per that model run) but 48 hours tops before the next front, New Year's Eve.  

Rain Chance Highest Over the "Northeast Quadrant"

For the image of the day, the colors of yellow show where some fog is currently most prevalent, the light green where rain is most active, and the purple indicates where the best chance of rain showers should exist through the end of the day...but not limited to that area. 

TODAY: A bit hurried today, but wanted to post considering the 'what appears will be' situation per latest model runs, current very active radar, and satellite imagery. Some basics are warranted for insight as to why  we are having some rain today in an otherwise what would be a no frills day.


The remains of the old front of late last week are not apparent any more (the one that crossed on Thursday) in the wind fields, but the moisture remains after backing back north the past two days. So there we have that factor to consider (moisture). The next is that there appears to be a shallow but nonetheless readily apparent inverted trough running from the SE coast of the state NNW ward toward West of JAX. The trough comes ashore over South Central Brevard, and all of the rain showers are occurring to the east of that boundary , but...there is one more participant, the clincher. A 700mb trough (at around 10,000 ft) is passing to the north of the state and across the north half of it as well. With that trough is a more westerly wind flow as opposed to ENE-ESE winds at the surface. This trough in the mid-levels will cross the state (mostly to the north) today, not reaching south of Central Florida. Thus, rainshowers along the intersect of the low level and moist easterly component winds under the westerly component winds aloft (and likely some weak energy)...will continue to manifest before us as clouds and rain as can be seen in the above image.  The best chance for rain shower/rain chances later today per the NAM, GFS, and RUC models of 2AM are closely 'concesused' in the lavender area this afternoon, although who Really Knows. Best bet though,and willing to lay down the cards.


TUESDAY: Shower chances, although less prevalent, will oblige to shower further south from near Brevard toward Vero..or maybe toward West Palm, mainly east side. Our easterly wind component slowly backs toward ENE-NE by Wednesday, inducing some drying and ending rain chances. But until then, some showers possible tomorrow as well but not as heavy as some that are occurring today ..especially like those toward JAX at this hour. Cape Canaveral had a good shower about 45 minutes prior to this writing, long gone now. Radar is not overly illuminated toward Central but NE FLorida is a different matter. We can look though, see for yourself...

BEYOND: After Tuesday we are 'good to go' with less chance of rain. NE - ENE winds continue and could become breezy at times, but no changes really as far as our current temperature regime is concerned. In fact, not much change AT ALL up until Christmas? Can it be? I'm waiting for Jack Frost's Ax to Fall...as was the case last year...but so far he does not seem to have his sights set on a Florida Get Away any time soon. Hooray!

The Stage of Constant State

This image shows  the Global Forecast Model (GFS) depiction of afternoon temperature and surface wind direction and speed. The brighter toward red, the warmer the temperatures. Blue is the cold. Florida has seen no 'blue' except toward the north side of the state since last winter. On this date last year, a Freeze was on the approach. What we see in this image as far as color coded air temperature is to remain a near constant, steady state for at least a week or longer.

TODAY: Easterly wind and ample moisture from a long departed by flailing old cold front that crossed the state on Thursday is the culprit for some clouds and rain showers. High pressure to the north of the state provides the wind direction. This high will move eastward and be replaced by another as shown in the image's blue arrows. Another front will attempt to move in, but so far it appears that it will never really be able to impact Florida.


Thus, along the coast the temperatures will remain in the mid-upper 60Fs overnight with daytime highs in the mid-upper 70Fs through next week.  Moisture from the old front is being drawn west and across the state toward tne next front  approaching the state, and in doing so is bringing just enough of that moisture to provide the impetus for shower development...at almost any time..any where. Even now, as I write...I hear some rain falling outside, but it should be brief.  The GFS model implies there is a better chance than not of more of the same, especially toward the  East Central, but radar is not behaving like the model, or any of them really..however, all in all, the moisture will 'be around' from time to time until sunset.


Below is the latest radar image while it was raining. Already, it is ending. My area is circled.

TONIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY: Again not unlike today. Although the constant prevails, the location of showers can shift, seemingly on a whim. It appears as of late morning that the moisture source will cut off by late Tuesday though..so we can take even a rain chance out of the equation through Thursday at least at that point.


BEYOND: Easterly flow continues at the same generic speed, ebbing at night. Another period of coastal stratocumulus cloud layers eventually unfolds preceding another front which might impact around or closer to Christmas. How can this be? So long, no cold front...no cold air? Very typical La Nina type pattern without an interseasonal variation such as the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which brought cold air last year. The National Weather Service is watching the Arctic Oscillation in days to come though, or so I heard yesterday. Time has a way of revealing the future, but so far, that future is beyond the scope of reasonable assumptions.

A "Pet Tornado" in a cage at the National Weather Service spins
harmlessly, showing the magic of water vapor and motion combined  through condensation isolated to a previously established bound

"Get Ready to Bundle!!!"...Floridians

Latest mid afternoon visible satellite image with hand drawn cold frontal positions. Solid blue is current front location, with dash lines showing its general location at 6 and 9 pm..give or take an hour or so.

NOW: At 3pm a cold front is careening steadily down and across the Florida Peninsula with passage already post-Tallahassee and temperatures behind the boundary close to 50F degrees accompanied by NW winds gusting toward 30mph. Not so nice for mid afternoon. Front will continue to drive SE ward during the late afternoon through mid-evening.


A word of the wises is to be prepared for surprises. But no surprise here. If heading out tonight, bring a good and trusty jacket to take a nip off the accompanying wind chill. Sweaters might not do the trick as nicely.


TODAY/TONIGHT: As noted above, "Here's Comes Da Front!". There's no turning back unfortunately, so grit your teeth a bear it. Won't be all THAT bad, but after such a prolonged warm period, and especially considering the nice afternoon today to the south of the front with temperatures near 80F or so, it's bark will be as bad as its bite within a few hours after passage along the journey to Miami. The front now appears to be over the Gainesville area as a reference point.


Front to cross Dead Central between the hours of 5:30pm - 7pm, accompanied by cloudy skies, west winds, and a slowly falling temperature. Possible sprinkles as well, but nothing significant. Post frontal passage (after dark) will yield to clearing skies and falling temperatures, especially after 8:30PM across Dead Central (sooner further north). The front will eventually slide into home plate across the Southern End of the Peninsula around 9-10:30pm, with similar sky conditions but less chance of a sprinkle or showers. Temperatures here too will fall, but the bigger temperature changes this go-around will occur over and north of the Central Lake Okeechobee area as a general line of demarcation of the coolest air.


THURSDAY: Very cool, to almost cold considering the conditions of recent days. It's all relative, and this relative will be not unlike Auntie Grezelda...sour and grumpy, but not quite bitter. Lows along the immediate ..and I mean IMMEDIATE east coast from Brevard and south near 48-51F warming to the south toward West Palm, or in another light, perhaps the coolest this area has seen this season by a smidge. 


Elsewhere, inland lows and west toward Naples will experience mid-upper 40Fs..with upper 30Fs interior North Central and even colder toward I-10 at sunrise. Winds NW around 10-18mph...with a wind chill evident no doubt.


Winds toward early afternoon already taking the turn around the bend toward the N-NNE and there ends the worst of the worst already. Not bad. I hate uninvited guests anyway. Clouds off of the Atlantic should be able to make a relatively fast return to the coast over night late on Thursday heading into Friday.


FRIDAY: East coasters can toast to morning lows already a good 10F degrees warmer. Guests leave messes...and in this event it will come in the form of a better chance of onshore trouncing low level stratocumulus clouds, especially over South Florida closer to the decaying boundary. Highs on Friday probably to remain in the mid-upper 60Fs North Central and Central, but warmer toward the lower 70Fs along the drive to West Palm and south. NNE-NE winds with possible showers late Friday and especially Saturday toward the SE Coast of the state.


SATURDAY: Continually modifying air mass (less dry and slightly warmer) through Saturday with an ENE wind. Clouds again, coastal showers/sprinkles as far north as Vero Beach.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: Showers possible mainly within 20 miles of the east coast most anywhere with temperatures returning to near normal as days of past. Warmer overnight lows especially due to extended cloud coverage, but afternoons not so warm due to the same cloud coverage. Give a little, take a littel.


BEYOND: Not much change...and a return to conditions to how it once was only yesterday and the few days before then. Next front is not on the agenda for nearly a week if not more, so no need to rush for boarding passes just yet.


Again, much cooler to apparently almost a bit cold tonight and into the first parts of Thursday...especially the north half of the state through late morning. AC, off. Jackets, On.

Keeping Fingers Crossed - Winter Has No Place in Florida, So Far

For warm air frolickers in Florida, Fate is On Our Side. Recall  last winter's freeze, a faded memory of times past. This morning , I recall what was to come just one week from today at this time last year. A freeze on the beaches, and ice in the bird bath. 

http://highspeeddirt-steve.blogspot.com/2010/12/thar-she-blows-batten-hatches.html

TODAY: Another day like those of the recent. East to ESE winds, light, with some early morning mist and fog toward the northern portions of the state now in progress will lift out shortly after sunrise toward mid-morning. Highs again in the mid-upper 70Fs for the most part, with some patches of stratocumulus clouds from time to time. So far, my area has had a sprinkle or trace of rain 4 consecutive days, with a very nice December rainbow only yesterday. A rarity gift at this time of year, like a big package wrapped in a colorful bow. Considering the approach of the Christmas Holiday...a rain-bow.

I took several photos yesterday. A friend of mine in the Storm Chaser community affectionately refers to rainbows as "Peace Offerings"... The Storm Has Passed and we can now rest. The odd thing about seeing a rainbow at this time of year is where it is located in the sky because of how far south the sun is located along the horizon. The viewer must have one's sun to their back to be able to see this phenomenon, and only once the sun has reached a certain angle above the horizon (either right after sunrise or toward sunset).

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY: Light winds after sunset, dewy with possible fog away from the coasts, but rapidly eroding after sunrise. Temperatures remain on the par.  Warmer on Wednesday as winds becomes SW during the afternoon. It has been quite a while since we have had a SW wind, and with that will be warmer highs around 80F or so under partly cloudy skies. A cold front is on the way. Mid-upper level high pressure areas moving east and away as a trough of low pressure with the attendant front replaces them toward the East Coast of the U.S., thus the wind shift and warmer air...but only for Wednesday. Enjoy.


THURSDAY: Front appears now that it will proceed through the state toward Florida, but will quickly undergo frontalysis , break down, from late Thursday and into the weekend after crossing Central shortly after sunset Wednesday evening, onward to South Florida it goes by sunrise. But not before we have a very cool morning, not unlike that of around one week ago with lows in the low 50Fs toward the east coast south of I-4, but 40Fs being the rule west of I-95 North Central and North (even colder here) and toward the west coast to the Northwest side of the Big Lake.  Fear not, the Fickle Finger of Fate (or for purposes of this post, of Cold Air Fate) will bid adieu almost as quickly as it moves in. Winds becoming NNE-ENE from Thursday afternoon and beyond. This direction is again off of the ocean waters as it has been and was last weekend, and thus, temperatures will quickly moderate back toward what we have already been experiencing the past few days by Friday.


FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Winds  having returned to their NE-ENE direction as mentioned above...could also translate to a  slightly better chance of showers somewhere along the east coast toward the interior. Until this time comes closer to 'real-time' exactly where those showers will have the best chance of manifesting will need to be determined. The key point at this conjuncture is that it does appear the chance of measurable showers as opposed to 'cloud tinkles'...will be better than it has been this week. Although, there has been some measurable amounts here and there from time to time, simply too far wide spread and erratic to warrant mention.


BEYOND: Amazingly, the GFS shows the next cold front not 3 days down the line, not 5 days down the line (the norm this time of year), nor even a week down the line. Beyond that, is anyone's guess. As noted in the top image, the GFS hardly shows much of anything other than another frontal boundary somewhere in the great beyond that has an impact similar to what that of this Thursday's   toward the 3rd week in December around the 18th or so. Go figure. This year is nothing like last year...running on track with a solid La Nina type pattern from all appearances. 

A Prelude to Winter Begins Tonight

Mid-Morning position of Surface Cold Front and weak pre-frontal trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Both will tandem to the east, with the leading edge of   reaching the Central Interior during early to mid-afternoon, then east of I-95 toward 4pm and thereafter into the evening hours.

Wind barbs and fronts alone do not provide the mental image we need to envision what the boundaries will mean when looking outside. The vehicle to provide a future reference point is the visible satellite image. The fronts have been recreated here for reference....the green shows how the band of showers and rain are aligned with the front, so timing from this can be extrapolated eastward with time. With some daytime heating expect to see more clouds anywhere , but the will not be of much consequence until at least early afternoon toward Orlando (as a reference point), but will spread to the immediate coast after 3pm or so. Showers as well. Note the extent of cloud cover behind the cold front over the Gulf yet to come well after the front has moved east of the Florida Peninsula.

Lastly, from a broader perspective, we can observe here that the surface features are contained within a 3 dimensional entirety , consisting of this mid-level low pressure system ...as well as an upper level low (not shown here). 

Within the mid-levels toward 8500 feet overhead resides a deepening low pressure area. The 'spokes' in light blue represent for presentation purposes only of further discussion below how there will be three fronts to move across the state today through Wednesday evening. Each passage will evoke a slowly drying atmospheric moisture profile throughout the columns in the vertical, with the second and third spokes being the primary contributors within that process.  

TODAY: Wheels in the sky keep on turning, and today's is rolling across the Southern Mississippi River Valley Region and the Deep South  with more than one attendant surface low. The surface to mid level lows as shown in the above are both contained within the Mother Load..the upper atmosphere. The mid-upper levels are almost stacked overtop each other. As history tells us, that means slow progression of the ensemble as a whole, so it will be with us through the remainder of the week in various forms. Possible rain rain impacts are the first and foremost variable of interest since they  will be first realized.


SSE-S winds today at 10-20mph with gusts to 25+ perhaps over the waterways. Partly cloudy skies earlier with cloudier conditions spreading toward the east from the west coast during late morning and into the afternoon. Timing of features per close model agreement places showers/rain near  Orlando (and north) around 2-3pm and on the immediate east coast in the  5pm time frame. 


Not everyone will see showers today, especially locals who live toward the east side of the state along and south of the north side of Lake Okeechobee. Thunder is not expected, although a few rumbles are not entirely zero'd out ...just highly unlikely.  The atmosphere is neutral enough in the instability parameter such that it would not be an issue. 


The main impacts are cloudy skies, breezy, and showers from late afternoon through 8pm or so in the area north of the less likely area to the south. Winds will become SW-W-WNW shortly before, during, and after passage of the two boundaries...which will clear the entire state after midnight ..apparently most definite prior to sunrise all locations.


TUESDAY: Mainly West winds at 10-18mph G 22. Partly cloudy after a morning low in the lower 60Fs far east to mid-50Fs interior. Cooler tomorrow with highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs South Florida. In all cases, cooler north of I-4.


WEDNESDAY: The second boundary/front will be moving through late in the day after another cool start in the 50Fs and low/mid 60Fs. This will be the first influx of truly (noticeably) drier air. Passage of this boundary will take the winds toward a definitive NW direction over night with falling temperatures to a greater degree as the drier air moves in.


THURSDAY: The second boundary now  having cleared the state with much drier air (lower dew points). Lows in the low 50Fs to upper 40Fs many areas except the far north (colder), and south (warmer). Very cool Thursday afternoon with highs in the mid-upper 60Fs with much clearer skies by now if not sooner on Wednesday. Hoping for 70Fs though, which is not out of the question.


FRIDAY: Round -the- wheel goes as it lifts toward the eastern Great lakes. The final front will have to approach from a much more northerly directory, with N-NNE winds to follow during the afternoon. Timing will have to be re-adjusted in regard to exactly when this will occur. Some clouds associated with this feature, followed by a warming trend through the weekend to seasonal norms.  

Fairwell Warm Weather Friend...Parting is not Sweet Sorrow

5PM EST Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model depiction of surface cold front for today in its last model run
This front will approach from the west with a fairly rare but steadfast north/south orientation, making only slow progress into most of Monday as the supporting mid-level low only recently becoming apparent forms in the yellow area for descriptive purposes.  In Green is where the best chance of measurable rainfall with the front itself seems the most probable as of this time, with the area in orange a thunderstorm area to be honed in on for future reference but in no way definitive at this stake.   

TODAY THROUGH NOON MONDAY: Very little change from what we are seeing over Central and South Florida as winds continue from the ESE-SE at 10-20mph with higher gusts at points in time almost anywhere depending on the daytime heating and any manifestation of nearby low topped sprinkling showers which dictate near by conditions (a few stronger gusts/slightly cooler due to cloud cover) - of which will be few and far between.  


Animation of early afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates that most areas other than toward NE and SE Florida will see more sun than clouds, although this could change come   lower sun angle time of day , but not of significant due cause. Otherwise, temperatures running in the 70Fs with some lower 80Fs away from the east coast north of Ft. Pierce and toward the west of I-95.


By noon Monday, the cold front should be approaching if not nearly on the west coast of Florida, with winds becoming more southerly at 10-20mph with similar if not slightly warmer highs along  a low" 80Fs more common" thread. Showers and possible thunder over the Panhandle toward Tampa with time, possibly as far south as Sarasota and eventually Punta Gorda west coast, with a few showers possible east side south of Daytona as the afternoon wears on, but those would not be related to the approaching boundary on the west side.


MONDAY NIGHT: Cold front, due to its orientation as shown above, will clear from west to east   along a common longitude, passing  or clearing for example I-95 within nearly the same hour from Daytona Beach to Miami..which per the latest NAM, GFS, and ECMWF (yes, the models have finally reached near mutual concession to agree)...around 7:30-9PM Monday evening. Best rain chances as indicated above as well, but most anywhere not shown here could receive showers as well. The least likely area appears to be SE Florida ...in the rain realm...but we can't know definitively until some rough spots in information get ironed out. 


TUESDAY-THURSDAY: To skip back to the previous paragraph, it could be that the precipitation to occur from west to east Monday afternoon through mid evening will actually be along 'PRE'-frontal boundary, with the true front yet to cross the state a day later. In either case, it does not seem to have an effect on sensible weather, only wind direction. 


West Winds after the trough presses to the east of one's location with rain chances quickly dwindling and over by sunrise Tuesday. Much cooler air could come in two phases but the sum total of both would be mainly to re-inforce the initial surge neither taking away from, or adding to, the numbers. 


Lows interior to south Florida in the mid-upper 40Fs, and upper 40Fs to just a tick above 50F far east side. Colder all areas north of I-4. Afternoon highs warmer than the cold previously  feared (but not surprised of this) on all days into the mid-upper 60Fs to low 70Fs south with westerly winds ticking clockwise toward NW on Thursday with time.


FRIDAY/BEYOND: Preliminary. Somewhere in the scheme of things heading toward next weekend another front will be making an appearance. Ironically, this cold front could come in the back door, from the North to NNE as opposed to our incomer from the west on Monday. Ironic because it is behind this front that conditions actually warm due to the wind becoming N-NNE-NE behind it. More implicitly, cold air will be modified as it blows across warmer ocean waters with a net result of a return to the old "stratocumulus clouds, warmer overnight coastal lows, and comfortable afternoons in the 70Fs with the ever-present chance of sprinkles of maybe showers somewhere along the line"...too soon to say.


CONCLUDING THIS POST: It continues to look like it will be much cooler to almost cold Tuesday through at least Thursday morning, and probably Friday's as well...with temperatures running below normal. This expectation in and of itself would not be of much perceived impact t'were it mid-winter, but we have been running above normal for quite a while, so these colder temperatures brought forth with a period of some winds in the 10-20+ mph will add the wind chill factor in. Cannot recall  the last time that was even of concern. Looks like the A/C can go for a while...but what of the heat? Individual preference , "You Be The Judge".    

Black Friday Forecast Frills - Bleak or Best Buy?

For image's sake, this is what the clouds over the state look like from above this afternoon, compliments of satellites above which relay the information down to planet bound denizens  

TODAY Through SATURDAY: High pressure just to the north of the state is slowly sliding east with Florida in the return easterlies behind its clockwise circulation. Moisture is just deep enough to generate the clouds as seen here and if you look outside, there as well (in most cases). Otherwise, winds from the East to ESE at 10-20mph with some higher gusts and highs in the mid-upper70Fs are the prevailing modus operandi through Saturday, although it could be  a few degrees warmer (especially than those of today) toward the Panhandle.  Shower chances are not zero, but even if they can manifest, they will be so light as to be considered 'no impact sensible'. 


SUNDAY-TUESDAY:  Sunday's winds become  SE-SSE (if not South), with temperatures running into the upper 70Fs - lower 80Fs (most likely). From there begins the dilemma. So, rather than provide a detailed  and quite laborious task of synoptic scale differences between each model at various atmospheric levels, we can look at why this is the case at hand in the first place. This can be best performed by observing a few discrepancies between the weather models used to forecast temperature, rain, and wind based on the mathematical equations employed by each without going into detail.


ASSUMPTION (S): It appears that there could be some interseasonal variations being detected or in process but which have not yet come to fruition. Most readers will have heard of La Nina which seems to be running right about normal (in many years it is not present, or the counterpart Le Nino is in force).  That is a factor to consider. Then consider this possibility: the Madden-Julian Oscillation, affectionally referred to as MJO (as opposed to having a MOJO). Yet still, perhaps the North Atlantic Oscillaion (NAO) might also be scheming an attack to ruffle  the forecast's feathers. Point is, given the time of year , climactic winter on the very near approach and variations within this time a near given initially, combined with those additive factors,  each model by all appearances seems to be weighing one of more of those variants into their equations..but providing astoundingly dissimilar results.  Examples:


The Global Forecast System (GFS) Model: Front to cross the state overnight Sunday night, accompanied by rain showers for at least the north half of the state, followed by a significant cold down. Lows in the upper 30Fs (north) through the mid-40Fs south by Monday/Tuesday time frame, with highs never breaching 60F most areas. The GFS of this morning shows these very cool to near cold (as well as very dry) Floridian conditions to prevail through early Wednesday . Well below normal. The next front arrives after perhaps 18-24 hours of slight warming before yet another re-enforcing front comes through dry...and more cold air of similar consequence...a long cold week by standards of the past 8 months.


The European ECMWF model on the other hand from last night does not have the front going through until sometime toward late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Additionally, it forms a surface low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico just off Cedar Key...with much more time for southerly flow to prevail prior to frontal passage. That would allow for not only deeper moisture to be in place prior to passage, but also create a set up much more favorable for thunderstorms as well (perhaps severe). Frontal passage was generally indicated sometime Wednesday at the latest per this model's bidding.


The NoGAPS and Canadian Models fall somewhere in between the two, with the CMC (Canadian) coming closer to shaking hands in agreement with the Europeans. Then again, the Navy NOGAPS model sides with the GFS,  not exactly...close, but slower.


Eventually, something resembling a model treaty will evolve , likely (or hopefully) by Saturday evening. By the time we reach Sunday morning...it should be completing signature, but we will have the opportunities to see in each and every subsequent model run of each player just exactly what the TREND is.


If only it was as easy as going to Best Buy to know right now.  The common remark made by National Weather Forecast offices in these cases sums it up neatly and simply,  "Stay Tuned" (the old fall back, "A word of the wises, be prepared for surprises" could aptly work as a second opinion of opinions.) Or as Confucius Say, "Forecast Model Not For Sale, Look at Sky and Figure out yourself".

Several Weather Changes Next 7 Days - Gentle Intro to Winter

In blue are generalized cool front locations as noted in the time-phased image shown. Coverage of showers at any one time will not be extensive and will be mostly associated with the front itself upon approach and passage

TODAY: Cool front across the Panhandle to make slow progress into Central Florida from early afternoon through sunset. A prefrontal trough associated with the radar echoes shown in the image above  is damping out, as such are the showers. Increasing cloud coverage to spread across Central (some already in place), with breaks in the clouds to allow highs today to reach the upper 70Fs to around 80F or so. Warmest S. Florida by a few degrees , not significantly so. Using a combination of morning RUC and NAM, the RUC appears a little fast. Likewise, perhaps the NAM is too slow. In combination, it appears another diurnal pre-frontal trough will form across the CDL (Central Diving Line) Zone this afternoon with daytime heating and hold tight, allowing the cold front itself to play 'catch-up". This will for whatever can be mustered up with cloud breaks as the front progresses only slowly SE ward from North Florida to provide a focus for rain to happen chance.


Suspect much of North Central will be stabilized/hampered by greater cloud coverage from the pre-existing trough that is moving out this morning, and so rain there should be limited to sprinkles and a few spits. Further south toward Dead CDL, cloud coverage will be less extensive. West winds all day, possibly becoming WNW behind a pre-frontal trough North Central (and prior to the actual front).  Winds from surface to well aloft will be mostly unidirectional (from the same direction) with height, and instability will be severely hampered by cloud cover and be mostly surface based due to mulit-layered clouds. Thus, the better chances of rain today/tonight appears will occur along and south of the secondary pre-frontal trough from Brevard County, possibly part of Orange/Seminole and south toward Miami (with time overnight as the front moves in that direction).  If there is to be any thunder at all, it should be elevated type harboring mostly incloud or cloud to cloud lightning, but not feeling very strong on any of said activity. If so, Brevard to Martin County within 20 miles of the coast.


The image above shows general locations will the front should be today through early Thursday. It currently appears that a "diurnal frontal stall cycle' will occur near I-4 to Dead Central during the mid-late afternoon, with no clear delineation as to exactly where the front is located until after dark once that cycle is complete. From that aspect, the front will be free to plow through toward the Straits by sunrise if not before.  Best chance of showers appears to be when convergence/low level winds sync with the time phased diurnal cycle combined with the fronts location near Central as high pressure builds east across the Deep South region toward Georgia. This puts the best covergence/abrupt wind shift on the east side of the state toward Southern Volusia / Brevard region around 8pm as the front will be close to there.  All in all, most people today will not receive rain under partly to mostly cloudy skies and west to West Southwest winds around 10-18mph this afternoon. At some points (or points), skies will be cloudy, but for residents across South Central and South that will occur after sunset.


TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING DAY: Front to press south and be followed by a NNE-NE wind by sunrise most locations (after veering overnight from the NW).  Sunrise should yield a Thanksgiving Day with lows in the lower 60Fs and 50Fs north Florida, warming to the mid-upper 60Fs toward Central and upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs South Central to South. Cool and breezy day with winds from the NE at 15-22mph, gusts toward 28mph. Looks like possible Lake Wind Advisory conditions and Small Craft Advisories might be required. Stratocumulus clouds, but not extensive to follow by mid-late afternoon. Not all that much warming during the day, perhaps up it about 5 degrees from morning lows as already modified cool air advection sweeps across the state from off the Atlantic.  In short, breezy and cool with some clouds. For Friday, NAM continues with bringing in rain showers most of the east coast by morning or shortly thereafter with a nearly saturated atmosphere from the surface to 5000 ft. This seems like 'overplay", and if even so, having a hard time rationalizing anything but more clouds as opposed to showers.


BEYOND: Next front to impact the state beginning Sunday through Monday. Rainfall appears will be more likely most areas with this front, only 4 days later. But hold on, yet another front could follow in due time within another 3-4 days if not less. This next front could manifest anything from widespread showers to isolated thunder, maybe even severe. If so (the latter), it would most likely be for the North Half of the state. Good wind shear but meager  thermal instability being the ever present liability as we approach the last quarter of the year, aka Winter.


As noted yesterday, much cooler from Tuesday and through the first week of December, except maybe for a day or two before the second front comes in to re-enforce Winter's Urgent Calling Card. So far, it doesn't appear it will be extremely cold, just very cool to almost cold (in the mornings) for a prolonged period. Slow and easy...  for easier adjustment without a profound shock to the system.

Are "Winter Like" Conditions Systematically Oozing In Through Next Week?

Today's Broad, Albeit Generous, Brush of where precipitation could fall. The best chances appear to be toward the interior north late afternoon through mid-evening. Sprinkles could occur within the yellows. Nothing beats color coded weather. Wish it was that simple.

TODAY: High pressure off SE Georgia and the Carolinas eventually elongates eastward into the Atlantic to be replaced by ESE-SE flow through late evening, becoming SSW-SW prior to sunrise Wednesday. A potent cold front related complex of three dimensional ferocity will rage across the entire Deep South today into the evening, with possible supercell (rotating) thunderstorms ahead of and imbedded within a Quasi-Linear (as opposed to completely linear) Squall line could   be on the menu of this smorgasbord containing severe category wind gusts as well as hail in association with the cold front which will approach Florida tomorrow.


Meanwhile back on the farm, looks like a good day for bailing hay with summer like clouds across the state, with the greatest concentration of clouds  near the east coast of South Central and north, eventually to make a showing all interiors by early afternoon. A few sprinkles near the coast from Brevard and north (South of I-4) with a better chance of showers near and north of I-4 to possibly St. Augustine by late day. Although Central is in sufficient moisture for showers or nearly so, much of it is being advected out of the area before showers can form. Central is the Source region for regions further north where better convergence can occur along a line running from Tampa, Ocala, toward Daytona and north. Best convergence should be over the interior late in the day through mid evening  in  proximity of that  green box traced out in the image above.   


TONIGHT: Cold front approaches the western Panhandle. Wind overnight becomes SW toward midnight and beyond. Partly cloudy in spots, becoming almost cloudy north. Best chances for fog tonight seem to be interior South Central (South of Orlando) and all of South Florida where winds will be lighter. Coolest temperatures will be away from any clouds which should be South Central, with lows in the lower 60Fs. Warmer further north under the increasing cloud blanket, and further South per common logic.


WEDNESDAY: Main point to observe is that the atmospheric moisture ribbon associated with the front is quite broad. Moisture both precedes and follows the boundary, so clouds could be on the increase from north to south during the late morning and through the afternoon. Winds from the WSW-SW all day, but cloud cover comes with the moisture, so afternoon highs across Central and North Central will unlikely be as warm as they could be otherwise, but South Florida (where the fog will be earlier), has a better bet of the warmest pockets. Highs most areas reach the lower 80Fs south of I-4 ..with some mid-80Fs South Florida before the better cloud cover can move in , which will post-peak heating anyway. 


Cloud cover seems a given to various degrees all North and Central, with the morning NAM showing a better chances of at least a sprinkle both before and after frontal passage. For now riding with the GFS, which implies almost solely clouds, with possible sprinkles/a shower along the immediate east coast East of I-95 as far south as Melbourne. The Cold front ETA for the CDL (Central Dividing Line) is within an hour or two of sunset (most likely after)...progressing toward Miami/Dade toward sunrise, Thanksgiving Day.


Winds behind the front shift to WNW, then NW, then N, then NNE within 11-14 hours after passage, which equates to NNE winds by the time the morning grapefruit and AllBran is being served Central, working toward South Florida by late morning toward Noon Time..


THANKS-N-GIVING DAY: NE-ENE winds ALQDS (All quadrants) at 15-22mph during the day, with some gusts in the upper 20s. Looks like a Small craft advisory type of day, with plentiful stratocumulus clouds working in by early-mid afternoon as well once the depth and longevity of these winds persists down and east of the Gulf Stream waters offshore. Showers unlikely, but it could look like there will be rain from time to time as the sun sets. 

OVERNIGHT-FRIDAY: Continued winds of similar direction and speeds, with more clouds as well. Overnight lows in mid-upper 60Fs to near 70F+ at the coast, especially South/South Central. The NAM is showing incoming showers Thanksgiving Night through Friday east coast. Certainly, upon inspection of the forecast soundings moisture is good, however limited to a shallow 5000 ft,...which wouldn't justify anything beyond a wind blown sprinkle, especially since there is no convective inhibition...allowing any instability to escape into the wild gray yonder. Time will tell.


BEYOND: Per the header in the post this morning, and as previously pointed toward, another front is on the horizon for late Sunday into Monday, just 4 days later...this front could be the harbinger or foreboding of a trend toward climactic winter. In other words, there's ALMOST no turning back now.  The next front will take our overnight lows/daytime highs down a good 8-12 degrees / 5-8 degrees respectively (which is for the first few days of December). 


If the latest GFS trend stands fast, there is yet another front following suit 4-5 days later; thus, once again breaking the old  "One Front per Week" rule of the past month and a-half. Two fronts in a row, 5 days apart is more 'winter like', not allowing for much recovery in the temperatures between them.


This by now third front  being referred to toward the end of the first week of December bears watching....from the active weather prospect.