The Stage of Constant State

This image shows  the Global Forecast Model (GFS) depiction of afternoon temperature and surface wind direction and speed. The brighter toward red, the warmer the temperatures. Blue is the cold. Florida has seen no 'blue' except toward the north side of the state since last winter. On this date last year, a Freeze was on the approach. What we see in this image as far as color coded air temperature is to remain a near constant, steady state for at least a week or longer.

TODAY: Easterly wind and ample moisture from a long departed by flailing old cold front that crossed the state on Thursday is the culprit for some clouds and rain showers. High pressure to the north of the state provides the wind direction. This high will move eastward and be replaced by another as shown in the image's blue arrows. Another front will attempt to move in, but so far it appears that it will never really be able to impact Florida.


Thus, along the coast the temperatures will remain in the mid-upper 60Fs overnight with daytime highs in the mid-upper 70Fs through next week.  Moisture from the old front is being drawn west and across the state toward tne next front  approaching the state, and in doing so is bringing just enough of that moisture to provide the impetus for shower development...at almost any time..any where. Even now, as I write...I hear some rain falling outside, but it should be brief.  The GFS model implies there is a better chance than not of more of the same, especially toward the  East Central, but radar is not behaving like the model, or any of them really..however, all in all, the moisture will 'be around' from time to time until sunset.


Below is the latest radar image while it was raining. Already, it is ending. My area is circled.

TONIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY: Again not unlike today. Although the constant prevails, the location of showers can shift, seemingly on a whim. It appears as of late morning that the moisture source will cut off by late Tuesday though..so we can take even a rain chance out of the equation through Thursday at least at that point.


BEYOND: Easterly flow continues at the same generic speed, ebbing at night. Another period of coastal stratocumulus cloud layers eventually unfolds preceding another front which might impact around or closer to Christmas. How can this be? So long, no cold front...no cold air? Very typical La Nina type pattern without an interseasonal variation such as the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which brought cold air last year. The National Weather Service is watching the Arctic Oscillation in days to come though, or so I heard yesterday. Time has a way of revealing the future, but so far, that future is beyond the scope of reasonable assumptions.

A "Pet Tornado" in a cage at the National Weather Service spins
harmlessly, showing the magic of water vapor and motion combined  through condensation isolated to a previously established bound