Image: This is the latest enhanced water vapor image taken from space around noon time (EST) today, Saturday. The yellow areas shown are the areas in play that are of relatively minor potential weather impacts in comparison with the red circled areas being the harbinger of what's to come. At time, the most significant event will be unfolding Tuesday morning over the Deep South and a portion of the Southern Plains, but there are other areas of interest from Oklahoma to New York during the course of next week as well...the precursor will begin tonight over Southern-Central Texas.TODAY: Doesn't take a weather man to see it's an awesome day over all of Florida early this afternoon. No issues worth mention as high pressure centered across the Central Gulf continues to slide east and across the peninsula, with the axis running across South Central Florida. Broad expanse of mid/upper-60s to low 70s under full sunshine with a light west wind. The area of high pressure will continue to slide east through Sunday and exit, for the most part, the east coast overnight Sunday night into the first part of Monday.
Meanwhile, a series of shortwave troughs in the mid-levels will ride over the top of the ridge as they enter the U.S. over Northern Mexico (passport in hand), cross Texas, then head toward the NE / Mid-Atlantic region, skimming North Florida along the way.
TONIGHT: Similar overnight lows tonight as was felt this morning and a few degrees warmer tomorrow. Maybe some high cirrus clouds overnight with the most of them over North Florida where light rain might fall where atmospheric moisture is most concentrated... but which could aid in keeping the temperature up a couple of degrees on top of the already having warmed temperatures Central and parts of South. The most interesting weather overnight into early Sunday will be over South Central and Eastern Texas as the first short wave trough is now approaching that area (shown in the yellow circle above).
SUNDAY/MONDAY: Similar day through mid-afternoon as today and a bit warmer. Light west wind. High pressure to exit into the western Atlantic for the most part early Monday will permit a weak sea breeze to begin Monday. Good shot of mid-upper level moisture could generate a period of totally cloudy skies on Monday, and maybe even a sprinkle near the Cape Monday afternoon as an inverted trough begins to establish from the Cape and northeastward, under the cloud deck (assuming it manifests). Otherwise, no issues other than the potential for a lack of abundant sunshine.
INTO TUESDAY: Tuesday? BIG DAY for much of the Deep South, portions of Oklahoma, Eastern Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Western Tennessee (to name a few) to include possible tornadoes, snow, ice, strong wind, hail, and lightning. This system will not be impacting Florida through at least early Wednesday, but the panhandle may very well start to see the weather move in during the day as thunderstorms/rain. Expect a surface low forming over Eastern Texas at sunrise Tuesday to EXPLODE during the day and move generally ENE-ward during the day. Very sharp dew point temperature gradient, shearing wind profiles, very high helicity/vorticity values (which are indicators of horizontally spiraling wind fields and their gradients aloft) to create meteorological havoc just ahead, along and behind an 'OBSCENE' surface boundary...but again, well out of the reach of the Florida Peninsula. This will occur as those areas circled in red will have moved in and start to phase with surface features to put it in the simplest of terms.
Otherwise, continued warming locally with the winds notably picking up from the ESE-SE-SSE through the course of the day which will advect deep moisture across the state and far to the north. By this time Tuesday a warm front will be draped across a region much further to the north of the state and now where in reach. No temperature issues at all with highs in the mid-upper 70s and lows along the coast in the low 60s, some low 80s possible south and coolest along A1A due to an onshore wind component. It will start to feel 'gooey' though by late Tuesday afternoon and all of Wednesday with the prolonged moist air flow having been in place.
WEDNESDAY -FRIDAY: For now, will leave this period broad brushed due to the complexity of the unfolding situation which will have occurred and reveal more in later model runs. But the trend is this.
The surface low will be passing to the north toward the mid-Atlantic and Northeast States creating winter weather craziness along the way north and along the warm frontal boundary, with the surface boundary (cold front) draped across the northern central Gulf of Mexico into North Florida for starters, dragging east ward and elongating a bit in a more latitudinal fashion (from NE to SW...maybe event more east/west than that. The peninsula will be fully entrenched in high dew point air, but little to work with in the way of dynamic wind profiles, thermal gradients, or any gradients of meteorological nature for that matter.
Expect at least one weak surface low to initiate in the far SW Gulf and becoming more discernible at the surface as the impulse (s) cross the warm waters of the Loop Current and head toward North and Central Florida These will be the 'core' weather makers.
Overall falls (decreasing values) in the 850mb through 500mb heights to the north and west of this cold front boundary will be reflected by the 'usher-ance' of very cold air into all of the Plains states and eventually into the Deep South during this time period, which for the most part (and thank goodness) will be mostly diverted from Florida, but look out New York City!
Do my eyes deceive me?! The GFS is painting temperatures as cold as -20F in New York leading into next Saturday. But that's going beyond jumping the gun. Heck, we're not even at the starting line yet.
In any case, the models of course are varying widely in regards to the finer (and inevitably) details, even for those to be first impacted tonight over Texas. Another way of explaining it is, 'The closer to the flame, the hotter the fire". This certainly holds true when active weather of any nature approaches..and the flame gets warmer on an hourly basis.
Lots to be ironed out in days ahead. But locally, the trend has been to lay the cold front across Central Florida (somewhere) for a time frame of 18-36 hours before clearing the state. This could prove beneficial for the current drought situation on top of the rains last Tuesday if nothing else.
Severe weather potential Central/South? Not much of one just yet. Most likely just a chance of thunder, if there's going to be one, would be Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. More toward Friday South Florida. The cards are still being shuffled, but don't think we'll be dealt much more than a "pair of fives" for what that's worth. But time will tell.
Last thing, cold air on the way? Ugh...Friday is not looking good...not extremely cold, just prolonged (an all day deal). Right now, I'm considering us blessed in comparison to the rest of the country....as a significant frigidly cold event for Central or South Florida is not, as of this morning, being portrayed. Even after turning the Magic 8-Ball several times. Think I'll quit while the luck is running.
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