It's an "Epic Big Tuesday" for Many - Central/South Florida Unphased

Image: Winter weather radar mosaic image from 12:30pm EDT this Tuesday, February 1, 2011. The pinkish color is a mix of frozen precipitation, blue is now, the rest is rain/thunderstorms. Note the weak connection of pink from NW Arkansas, through SE Missouri eastward toward north central Pennsylvania to near NYC, some Lake Snow Effect areas in NE Illinois and NW Ohio.

SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK 2011 FLORIDA continues today with the focus on Marine Hazards and Rip Current Education. See the latter portions of this post for information provided by the National Weather Service.

TODAY: First a quick national summary considering it's an EPIC "Big Tuesday" in the weather sense of the words. As I type there are 9 Blizzard Warnings in affect with a large number of power outages...and its just begun!!

Sunrise temperatures colder than 40 BELOW zero in Montana this morning (not to mention the wind chills as cold as -55F (that's a minus)), insane cold into Kansas, Oklahoma, north Texas to name a few locations, ice, snow, bone biting frigidly cold wind, you name it. Some locations in the Central Plains are in shut down mode. If you're expecting any shipments to come in the next few days they might be delayed on a global scale due to the fact that some service will and/or are rendered inoperable today through Wednesday, into early Thursday.

On the flip side of the coin there's the strong thunderstorm related winds along the pre-cold frontal squall line pushing through Louisiana at this hour. Some of the values we look for to generate severe thunderstorm/tornado activity are outrageously high, but thankfully for many folks other values required for a full out hard-core severe weather outbreak are close to entirely absent...even more so than was the case over Florida last week. But wind damage reports are filtering in from time to time nevertheless as the line of convective storms progresses eastward, and this will likely continue to be the case through early this evening. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, occurs over Eastern Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, from New Orleans to Mobile, to Pensacola and further north into Central portions of those states. The best cluster of reports to come in so far is from the Arklatex Area. There is probably a lot of other strong wind reports just below severe levels though that do not show up on the big record books. Winds in the cold air are just as strong if not stronger than those with the thunderstorms at times.

LOCALLY: Very little change from yesterday's post as Central and South Florida remains the Flower Child of Peace Offerings for all things good through early mid-afternoon Wednesday. Beyond that time it gets sketchy but no big deal in regard to 'bad' rains or even overly 'cool' air. All courtesy of strong high pressure at the surface and aloft from Eastern Cuba, through the eastern Bahamas, and up and over into the Western Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean which is and will hold mightily fast for quite some time to come.

TODAY: Pleasant sums it up. SE-SSE wind from 12-20mph this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s with a tickle on 80F, coolest only along and east of the A1A Strip due to the slight onshore wind component which will be mostly noted along the outer most barrier islands of Brevard. Weak inverted trough that was mentioned yesterday is yielding to the approaching system and pulling north and further offshore. Northeast Florida about an hour ago was in the upper 50s and low 60s with fog closer to that boundary. Partly cloudy sky otherwise as can be seen. Take a look. Models are showing the potential for a scant trance amount of rainfall near the coast over SE Florida and Brevard late in the day but I'm disregarding.

TONIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY: The "Big Tuesday" Storm will be "Big Wednesday" (not of surfer movie fame) moves through the northern portions of the Ohio Valley enroute to New England over night. The pressure gradient between that system and high pressure noted above might make its presence most none locally over night with winds picking up just a bit from the south to eventually SSW then weakening by mid-morning tomorrow as the low pressure system moves even further away....leaving in its wake sheets of ice and snow, power outages and plane delays, traffic accidents, and a sigh of relief for many in the knowledge that the worst has passed...although New England and most of New York may have to contend with the monster through much of the day.

Locally, SSW wind becoming SW-WSW by late afternoon and weakening. Another warm day in store though, likely warmer than today especially for the folks right along A1A in the absence of an onshore wind. Highs in the upper 70s and low 80s, maybe even some mid-80s in a few locations.

Front pulls into station across Central during the afternoon accompanied by little fanfare. I am still seeing a "See Text" area outlined by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for most of the state tomorrow (for strong storms), and again I am not seeing why. But, if had to pick a spot most favored it would be near I-95 and east from Central Volusia to Central Brevard County along a weak boundary of a few parameters of interest which I won't go into in this post during the mid-afternoon to early evening hours. Perhaps another spot to watch will be ESE of Lake Okeechobee somewhere in Palm Beach County. I think another area was near Tampa Bay up toward Cedar key, but I'm too lazy to go back and quadruple check everything, again.

THURSDAY: Boundary pretty much washes out across a Central/South Central Zone, with again some under-cutting high pressure making surface penetration known by a wind shift to the ENE through much of Central and South. But winds over head remain from the WSW-SW where they will have been all along. This time frame is very sketchy at this point in time regarding rain fall, but not seeing any big totals...with most areas not seeing any at all. But clouds look like a good bet Thursday within the frontal burial grounds of Central and South Florida (except maybe far South and the Keys).

TEMPERATURES: Not so warm on Thursday with Central remaining in the mid-upper 60s most of the day from dawn til dusk, warmer South Florida and Keys and cooler North.

FRIDAY: Weak low pressure in the South Central Gulf to move rapidly NE toward the Big Bend of Florida, lifting a 'zombie' warm front north with hopes of clearing out the sky by late morning over Central and South to some degree but no promises. A little warmer too behind the front but not as warm as it will be tomorrow, unless we see more clearing that what the data I'm looking at indicates. If clouds clear for a sufficient length of time, all the more power to us. This low crosses through the Big Bend through the night and strengthens once it hits the Atlantic waters off the Georgia coast. Is it races NE almost parallel to the U.S. Seaboard and will be followed by high pressure building across the Deep South which 'should' force a cold front through Central and South Florida during the day Saturday into Saturday night with clearing by Sunday morning.

While all this is happening over Central/South, and to a small degree portions of North Florida those areas over the Deep South that will be in recovery mode from today's system will return to the doldrums in regard to light/moderate rain and cool/cold air due to isentropic lift north of the warm front. Again, though, it looks like the show will be over on Sunday through early Monday. Maybe another narrow window of opportunity for thunder early Saturday as the low crosses north Florida but wouldn't hang a hat on that, nor even tip it. But I'm not prepared to say "never" just yet. There is just something plain 'fishy' about the time frame going into Friday that I can't put my finger on. I think it's the timing of the surface low crossing the state which will make all the difference for our weather on Saturday. Additionally, not so sure that the broad area of high pressure to the east of Florida will be so quick to give up the ghost...in other words, I wouldn't be surprised to see a big change in future model runs. But considering the consistency during the past 24 hours we can only run with what we've got for now.

Lots to see what eventually evolves during the Thursday and Friday time frame, so take note that beyond Thursday this is a low confidence forecast. Their are hints that some light rain could re-manifest over South or Central Florida going from Monday into Tuesday but the details are way too fuzzy and the time between now and then is beyond the scope of reality.

But all importantly, not seeing any big chill anywhere when all is said and done as the high pressure mentioned earlier in this post when push comes to shove will reign supreme.

..FEBRUARY 1 IS MARINE HAZARDS AND RIP CURRENT AWARENESS DAY

In regard to this topic today, just want to add a fore-note regarding rip currents. With the trained eye, rip currents can (but not always) be visible from shore. They are none as being Fair Weather Killers because people are most apt to go to the beach for dip in the water on a nice, warm day when the seas look relatively subdued. However, in those conditions they can become visible as an area of unusually choppy, disturbed waters. Any surfer with a clue won't be in that area either as waves do not break well for surfing where rip currents exist. So, if one is looking for a quiet spot free of surfers to take a dip, there could be a good reason why they are not there. Again, this is just a side note with lots more all inclusive information to relay as copy/pasted from the National Weather Service below:

BOATING ACCIDENTS RESULT IN AN AVERAGE OF 14 DEATHS AND 93 INJURIES EACH YEAR IN THE TEN COUNTIES COMPRISING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOST OF THESE DEATHS AND INJURIES OCCUR DUE TO CARELESSNESS... RECKLESSNESS OR NAVIGATIONAL RULES VIOLATIONS...BUT BOATERS ARE ALSO VULNERABLE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT CAN OCCUR AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR. MOST MARINERS CHECK WIND AND SEA FORECASTS BEFORE LEAVING SHORE. HOWEVER...WHILE OUT ON THE WATER MANY DO NOT REALIZE
THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN FLOW OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING FROM A THUNDERSTORM. THESE STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE RESULTED IN CAPSIZED BOATS AND DROWNING IN RECENT YEARS.

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAD FOUR WEATHER-RELATED DEATHS IN 2010...ALL IN THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. A BOAT WAS CAPSIZED IN ST LUCIE INLET DURING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS...WHICH RESULTED IN ONE DEATH. THERE WERE TWO DROWNINGS CAUSED BY RIP CURRENTS AND ONE ROUGH SURF FATALITY. THESE STATISTICS POINT OUT THE HIGH VULNERABILITY OF THOSE IN THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT...AND THE NEED TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER HAZARDS.

THEREFORE...STAY AWARE OF WEATHER THREATS TO REMAIN SAFE WHILE ENJOYING A DAY OUT ON THE WATER. NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS AN EXCELLENT SOURCE OF CONTINUOUS WEATHER INFORMATION...INCLUDING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING AND DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RIP CURRENTS...SOMETIMES ERRONEOUSLY REFERRED TO AS RIP TIDES OR UNDERTOWS...OCCUR NATURALLY AND AFFECT MOST OF THE SURF BEACHES ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. THESE CURRENTS CAN POSE A HIGH THREAT TO UNSUSPECTING BEACHGOERS. RIP CURRENTS CAN BE REFERRED TO AS THE FAIR WEATHER KILLER BECAUSE THEY OFTEN OCCUR WHEN THE WEATHER IS NICE. DURING THE PAST 20 YEARS...RIP CURRENTS HAVE CLAIMED MORE LIVES IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN ANY OTHER WEATHER RELATED HAZARD
INCLUDING HURRICANES...TORNADOES AND LIGHTNING.

A RIP CURRENT IS A STRONG CHANNEL OF WATER FLOWING OUT PAST THE SURF ZONE THAT CAN PULL EVEN THE STRONGEST SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER BEYOND THE SAND BAR. MOST DEATHS OCCUR WHEN PEOPLE CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT TRY TO SWIM TOWARD SHORE DIRECTLY AGAINST THE CURRENT...BECOME TOTALLY EXHAUSTED AND DROWN. SOMETIMES...WOULD BE RESCUERS ALSO DROWN. BY UNDERSTANDING HOW A RIP CURRENT WORKS...PEOPLE CAN ESCAPE THIS FATE.

RIP CURRENTS ARE NORMALLY ONLY ABOUT 10 TO 30 YARDS WIDE...AND THE BEST ESCAPE IS TO WADE OR SWIM SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE CURRENT... PARALLEL TO SHORE. THE RIP CURRENT WEAKENS RAPIDLY ONLY A RELATIVELY SHORT DISTANCE SEAWARD OF THE SAND BAR...AND THUS ANOTHER MEANS OF ESCAPE FOR A STRONGER SWIMMER IS TO FLOAT WITH THE CURRENT OUT BEYOND THE BREAKERS...THEN SWIM SHOREWARD AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM THE CURRENT.

THE BEST SAFETY ADVICE IS TO ALWAYS SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND SEEK THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL BEFORE ENTERING THE SURF. YOUR CHANCES OF DROWNING ARE VERY LOW WHEN SWIMMING WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD. NEVER SWIM ALONE. DO NOT ENTER THE OCEAN IF YOU ARE A WEAK SWIMMER. THE VAST MAJORITY OF RIP CURRENT VICTIMS ARE EITHER TOURISTS...OR FLORIDIANS WHO LIVE AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND ARE NOTINF ORMED ABOUT OCEAN HAZARDS. THOSE PLAYING HOST TO VISITORS SHOULD
MAKE SURE THEY ARE AWARE OF THE THREATS THAT EXIST IN THE SURF ZONE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE ISSUES DAILY HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WHICH INCLUDE INFORMATION ABOUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS DANGEROUS WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT IS ALSO FORECAST ON A SCALE RANGING FROM LOW TO MODERATE TO HIGH. THIS INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED VIA NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TELEVISION AND RADIO...OR BY VISITING THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/MELBOURNE