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| Forecast highlights for 5pm Friday. Details are in the body of ths post. |
============================PAST INFO============================
THURSDAY: Big time storm maker in the South Central Plains states with nearly all the values required for a strong tornado and supercell thunderstorms was in place, or at least there's a very good chance of them. I've marked an area that I was watching at 7AM this morning as shown below, although would probably extend that a bit further north now. I'm expecting that initially there will be some discrete cells that will spread east near the surface low in Kansas as well as further south along the dry line into far NE Texas with time, eventually evolving into a severe QLCS (Quasi-Linear Convective System) of mini-bows, loops, and sups (supercells) which will become more linear with time but with continued strong mechanical lift into the night where winds and hail will become the primary threat, although there could be some misocyclones (mini-spin up tornadoes) along the line to produce a tornado or two as it presses into far Eastern OK , Arkansas, and Southern Missouri.
CENTRAL/SOUTH TODAY: Splendid day Central/North, but some pesky showers and perhaps some thunder along the SE Coast from Boyton Beach and south. This activity will not become strong, but they could use the rain. This afternoon may become partly cloudy to almost cloudy later, but this will all be from high clouds and might not even be noticeable for the most part, although around sunset ..maybe more so. The activity over Southeast Florida today is along and near the old surface boundary that passed through North and Central the other day and will wimper at sunset or thereabouts. This boundary will lift north late today and cross Central in the middle of the night. It is not impossible that Brevard could see a rain shower or two as the boundary lifts north sometime after 3AM.
===============================FRIDAY - TODAY =======================
TODAY: High clouds will have cleared the area. and they did just shortly before surise Winds SE-SSE behind (south of the boundary) and a bit breezy near the coast . A 500mb pocket of cold air will be passing to the north of Central..but will be close enough to provide an added boost of cold air aloft. (TRUE) The east coast sea breeze will dominate on Friday, but will struggle against the developing WSW-SW winds which will be moving in during the late morning in advance of the big squall line over Alabama (for starters) in the mid-levels. (TRUE AGAIN) With those in place, the west coast sea breeze could conceivably be stronger than model guidance portrays which might prove to be of great significance later in the day in regards to rain chances. (BUT ONLY CONCEIVABLY)...
DISCLAIMER TIME: This forecast for tomorrow HIGHLY Diverges from official forecasts and is based mostly on the NAM model. It is quite possible that this discussion below will fail to materialize is written. You might say...this is l "Wishful Thinking on the part of HSD (HighSpeedDirt)." Official outlets are not calling for much if any activity over the East Side of the state tomorrow. But onward we'll push now for some science fiction to those who bother reading my posts and care to be entertained.
=============================IT WAS WISHFUL THINKING=================
Actually, the NAM wasn't far off, and it is more likely it was wishful thinking by not further looking into EVERY detail. That being the moisture content of the atmosphere around 700mb. The NAM continues to show the same conditions for today, but it is too dry above 10,000 ft to support little more than a rain shower...However,
Per that same model and two others, there is a window of opportunity for 1 thundershower over far SW Brevard into SE Osceola County late this afternoon as the lower level winds start to transition from a SSE direction later this afternoon paralleling the coast to South around 4-5pm. Should the 700mb level respond for a time to the shift with a boost in moisture from below through the column..a small thunderstorm is possible somewhere near I-96. Rainshowers will become more possible up toward Ocala or just north of there...and some widely scattered small showers can skirt or impact the coastal areas after 12-1pm as far north as Cape Canaveral to Titusville. The west side of the state will be dry today and Orlando might get into the act with some showers but it's extremely conditional. It is possible a larger storm will manifest near Indiantown later this afternoon. Otherwise, breezy this afternoon and partly cloudy.
NOW: Contnue to the bottom of this post to see Saturday......
==================================================================
THE IMAGE -- The ANNOTATIONS. Precipitable water values tomorrow in the atmosphere will be about the highest I've seen since the last big rain in September 2010. Not as high as that day, but you get the picture.... written in blue. The bright reddish colors are the Energy Helicity Index (EHI) forecast values. This value is basically a comination of thermalwind energies spit out as a number and put in pretty colors. You do not want to be within eye shot of the very pretty colors!
Note that the colors over Florida are nearly as astounding as those with the severe squall line that will be moving east tomorrow over the Mississippi River Valley portion of the Deep South tomorrow! Don't panic. I believe most of the EHI is contributed by CAPE/moisture rather than spin which will be there as a function of the sea-breeze rather than of synoptic scale organization through the deeper layers of the atmosphere...but the spin does give upward motions boost and combine that with the sea breeze convergence boost, I'd think there would be thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon right at rush hour over Metro Orlando and vicinity lasting into the late evening.
Rain chances begin around 5 pm over the spine of the state probably just west of Orlando, but will fill in rapidly between 4-6pm, struggling to spread east. Expect there could be some strong storms, with small hail under the strongest core especially near Clermont to Altamonte Springs. Overall, it looks like the area just NW-N of MCO might bear the brunt of this activity (near Clermont) as the steering currents pushing toward the East struggle against the frisky late afternoon east coast sea breeze (which always peaks an hour or two after peak heat and lasts about 2 hours).
The activity will spread toward the east coast from mainly Wilbur-by-the Sea south to Sebastian Inlet after 6:00pm and exit the coast while fizzling and be over with by 11pm at the latest. Another stronger storm could develop close to the coast from Mims to Cocoa as well around 7pm while isolated activity with lightning just possibly might be near Lake Okeechobee into western Palm Beach County at the same time as further north, perhaps sooner,
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THIS IS WHAT SATURDAY WILL BE LIKE: Have a nice weekend.
SATURDAY: Still waiting for some agreement between model guidance, the NWS, and The Weather Channel (?). They are calling for severe for a portion of North Central tomorrow. Don't see it at all.... For now though, believe that Saturday is going to be warm and breezy like the other day before the cool front passed through. But rain chances look even less with this upcoming system due to lack of moisture that the Friday activity will take with it. In other words, Saturday looks dry and warm. That description for the day doesn't sound Severe to me.
THURSDAY: Big time storm maker in the South Central Plains states with nearly all the values required for a strong tornado and supercell thunderstorms was in place, or at least there's a very good chance of them. I've marked an area that I was watching at 7AM this morning as shown below, although would probably extend that a bit further north now. I'm expecting that initially there will be some discrete cells that will spread east near the surface low in Kansas as well as further south along the dry line into far NE Texas with time, eventually evolving into a severe QLCS (Quasi-Linear Convective System) of mini-bows, loops, and sups (supercells) which will become more linear with time but with continued strong mechanical lift into the night where winds and hail will become the primary threat, although there could be some misocyclones (mini-spin up tornadoes) along the line to produce a tornado or two as it presses into far Eastern OK , Arkansas, and Southern Missouri.
CENTRAL/SOUTH TODAY: Splendid day Central/North, but some pesky showers and perhaps some thunder along the SE Coast from Boyton Beach and south. This activity will not become strong, but they could use the rain. This afternoon may become partly cloudy to almost cloudy later, but this will all be from high clouds and might not even be noticeable for the most part, although around sunset ..maybe more so. The activity over Southeast Florida today is along and near the old surface boundary that passed through North and Central the other day and will wimper at sunset or thereabouts. This boundary will lift north late today and cross Central in the middle of the night. It is not impossible that Brevard could see a rain shower or two as the boundary lifts north sometime after 3AM.
===============================FRIDAY - TODAY =======================
TODAY: High clouds will have cleared the area. and they did just shortly before surise Winds SE-SSE behind (south of the boundary) and a bit breezy near the coast . A 500mb pocket of cold air will be passing to the north of Central..but will be close enough to provide an added boost of cold air aloft. (TRUE) The east coast sea breeze will dominate on Friday, but will struggle against the developing WSW-SW winds which will be moving in during the late morning in advance of the big squall line over Alabama (for starters) in the mid-levels. (TRUE AGAIN) With those in place, the west coast sea breeze could conceivably be stronger than model guidance portrays which might prove to be of great significance later in the day in regards to rain chances. (BUT ONLY CONCEIVABLY)...
DISCLAIMER TIME: This forecast for tomorrow HIGHLY Diverges from official forecasts and is based mostly on the NAM model. It is quite possible that this discussion below will fail to materialize is written. You might say...this is l "Wishful Thinking on the part of HSD (HighSpeedDirt)." Official outlets are not calling for much if any activity over the East Side of the state tomorrow. But onward we'll push now for some science fiction to those who bother reading my posts and care to be entertained.
=============================IT WAS WISHFUL THINKING=================
Actually, the NAM wasn't far off, and it is more likely it was wishful thinking by not further looking into EVERY detail. That being the moisture content of the atmosphere around 700mb. The NAM continues to show the same conditions for today, but it is too dry above 10,000 ft to support little more than a rain shower...However,
Per that same model and two others, there is a window of opportunity for 1 thundershower over far SW Brevard into SE Osceola County late this afternoon as the lower level winds start to transition from a SSE direction later this afternoon paralleling the coast to South around 4-5pm. Should the 700mb level respond for a time to the shift with a boost in moisture from below through the column..a small thunderstorm is possible somewhere near I-96. Rainshowers will become more possible up toward Ocala or just north of there...and some widely scattered small showers can skirt or impact the coastal areas after 12-1pm as far north as Cape Canaveral to Titusville. The west side of the state will be dry today and Orlando might get into the act with some showers but it's extremely conditional. It is possible a larger storm will manifest near Indiantown later this afternoon. Otherwise, breezy this afternoon and partly cloudy.
NOW: Contnue to the bottom of this post to see Saturday......
==================================================================
THE IMAGE -- The ANNOTATIONS. Precipitable water values tomorrow in the atmosphere will be about the highest I've seen since the last big rain in September 2010. Not as high as that day, but you get the picture.... written in blue. The bright reddish colors are the Energy Helicity Index (EHI) forecast values. This value is basically a comination of thermalwind energies spit out as a number and put in pretty colors. You do not want to be within eye shot of the very pretty colors!
Note that the colors over Florida are nearly as astounding as those with the severe squall line that will be moving east tomorrow over the Mississippi River Valley portion of the Deep South tomorrow! Don't panic. I believe most of the EHI is contributed by CAPE/moisture rather than spin which will be there as a function of the sea-breeze rather than of synoptic scale organization through the deeper layers of the atmosphere...but the spin does give upward motions boost and combine that with the sea breeze convergence boost, I'd think there would be thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon right at rush hour over Metro Orlando and vicinity lasting into the late evening.
Rain chances begin around 5 pm over the spine of the state probably just west of Orlando, but will fill in rapidly between 4-6pm, struggling to spread east. Expect there could be some strong storms, with small hail under the strongest core especially near Clermont to Altamonte Springs. Overall, it looks like the area just NW-N of MCO might bear the brunt of this activity (near Clermont) as the steering currents pushing toward the East struggle against the frisky late afternoon east coast sea breeze (which always peaks an hour or two after peak heat and lasts about 2 hours).
The activity will spread toward the east coast from mainly Wilbur-by-the Sea south to Sebastian Inlet after 6:00pm and exit the coast while fizzling and be over with by 11pm at the latest. Another stronger storm could develop close to the coast from Mims to Cocoa as well around 7pm while isolated activity with lightning just possibly might be near Lake Okeechobee into western Palm Beach County at the same time as further north, perhaps sooner,
==================================================================
THIS IS WHAT SATURDAY WILL BE LIKE: Have a nice weekend.
SATURDAY: Still waiting for some agreement between model guidance, the NWS, and The Weather Channel (?). They are calling for severe for a portion of North Central tomorrow. Don't see it at all.... For now though, believe that Saturday is going to be warm and breezy like the other day before the cool front passed through. But rain chances look even less with this upcoming system due to lack of moisture that the Friday activity will take with it. In other words, Saturday looks dry and warm. That description for the day doesn't sound Severe to me.
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