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| OLD BOUNDARY FROM DECAYED FRONT STILL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY. IT IS ON IT'S LAST LEG TODAY, BUT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS IN GREEN, INTO THE KEYS. NOTE THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE MAIN FACTORS IN DETERMINING PENINSULAR FLORIDA WEATHER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. AREAS IN PURPLE AND ORANGE INDICATE SHOWER./THUNDER CHANCES ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY |
TODAY: Old frontal boundary is about done with South Florida today. Whatever moisture remains will begin to lift north along the immediate east coast to Central Brevard Today with little to no notice. High pressure is over the Eastern Gulf at the surface and the mid-levels. Dry northerly flow today and a weak surface pressure gradient will allow the coasts to have a cool breeze while inland temperatures from either coast rise into the upper 80Fs to near 90F in a few spots.
MONDAY-FRIDAY: The majority of the upcoming week is highlighted by a near blocking pattern. For Florida concerns, the contributor to the block is low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic and NE U.S. Coast which will move little. Storm systems are forecast to roll out of the North Plains and the Great Lakes and dive toward South Carolina beginning tonight, as 'faux backdoor cold fronts from the north". However, they will mostly wash out after reaching Central Florida. Won't be surprised to see some major storms move through South Carolina in a day to two though, for starters. Other areas to watch through Wednesday will be Nebraska (today) into Kansas/Oklahoma/and North Central Texas by Wednesday. The system on Wednesday will more directly (and most likely) be one that will affect most of the state going into Friday and the weekend.
MONDAY: First off, I want to point out the source of moisture next week for any rain chance will not come from the south, but rather from the North. Days will be characterized by very little surface gradient flow, and groudn level winds will nearly solely be dictated by coastal sea breezes. Inland temperatures could approach record levels or if not, just be plain old hot approaching the low-mid 90Fs on various days, with the coast in the mid-upper 80Fs before onset of the sea breeze. Perhaps by Friday the east coast will see 90F degrees readings as well.
The first storm system to dive south from interior positions of the mid-Atlantic Coast states is forecast to bring moisture into all of North Central Florida tomorrow from north to south, reaching the Beachline by sunset or shortly thereafter, mainly on the east side. Afternoon sea breeze should keep the moisture convergence, and hence showers and possible thunderstorms along and west of I-95...but this bears watching. Storm motions would be from the NNW, which will struggle with the sea breeze and likely avoid the cooling subsidence behind the sea breeze front.
TUESDAY/FRIDAY: Pretty much the same scenario everyday. Whether or not rain/thunder will be realized, and if it is , where..is contingent upon the strength and breadth of the oscillating area of high pressure to our West. If it is weaker, each impulse from the north (carrying moisture with it)...will affect more of the north half of the state than on days when it is stronger or when the impulses are too weak or are not transporting enough moisture with them. Everyday will not be carbon copy of the day before. Some days could favor further to the west..whereas other days could favor the immediate east coast.
Temperatures will be quite warm in this regime. It is possible both from this synoptic scale regime as well as from a climatologically perspective, that Central and North Florida will encounter some of the highest temperatures of 2011 during the next week if not beyond into next week, with highs in the mid-90Fs. Far to soon to say for sure, especially since these 'warm to hot events' are seldom foreseen and not well handled by guidance. The chance of abnormally warm temperatures can also occur as late as early-mid June to keep things in check.
It does not look like far South Florida will get into the 'rain game' initially, but should the pattern shift to even a stronger blocking pattern as indicated by the GFS by Friday..they too will be pawn for the rainstorms.
SIDE NOTE: Long range guidance has been implying that a big blocking weather pattern (one that changes little for over a week at least) could be in the making. This has been implied to occur for several days now, and this morning's model run of the GFS is no different. Most favored has been a classic "Omega Block"..I wrote about that type of pattern several months ago, and will re-introduce that type of pattern should it emerge. The other blocking pattern shown last night was a strong "REX BLOCK" on the East Coast of the U.S. In either case though, the pattern over Florida is nearly the same as an end results (and as described in the earlier paragraphs).
FINAL NOTE: Should thunderstorms be able to develop in the next week, they will be isolated to possibly scattered, but also restricted to a particular 'favored zone' for that particular day . They could also be quite strong to marginally severe at times with both modes of strong storm characters involved (small hail/strong wind gusts). Would not be surprised to see some sort of 'mesoscale accidents' on a day or two, with a storm somewhere between Jacksonville to Orlando being especially feisty, especially if a storm can impinge through the East Coast sea breeze front...in which case a coastal community could get a good rain.
Should high pressure over the Gulf shove just a bit further east toward the state, all rain chances most everywhere will go to zero..and the heat would be "On" with little relief.
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