Isolated, Becoming Scattered Lightning Storms Possible Today

A very, very large sea gull flies over the Atlantic Ocean Saturday Morning, July 30th. Can you see it? I'm standing barefoot in the warm Atlantic Ocean water. These warm waters are creating high dew point temperatures along the A1A corridor of North Brevard, with high heat indices as well, even though the temperature is only at or just below 90F in those areas (Such as Satellite Beach toward Canaveral)

TODAY: The suppressing affect of the mid-high level pressures that were over the Western Panhandle of Florida yesterday is relaxing. Florida was on the descending (sinking air) side of those highs, and thus as expected, rain fall was very very sparse. Since yesterday, the high pressure has retreated far to the west toward Eastern Texas and Mississippi, and is expected to retreat even more so during the day. With that in mind, although the wind aloft has not changed in direction all that much, it is much weaker, and air pressure aloft is lower. This allows for better mixing of the low level moisture with the mid-levels.  There is already much more moisture as evidenced by the increased PWAT air...by as much as 1/2" over yesterday, ranging from 1.9 -2.1"..focused more toward the North Half of the state. I expect these values might get higher by late afternoon as moisture convergence at the low levels due to Lake/Sea breeze boundary interactions occurs and lifts low level moisture into the mid-levels.


Otherwise #1. Temperatures aloft are really not much different than yesterday, maybe one or two degrees cooler over the SOUTH HALF of the state in the mid-levels. Makes sense right? That area is further from the retreating mid-level high pressure region now located as shown in the image below well to the WNW of the state.  Latest SPC mesoscale analysis shows some pretty steep mid-level lapse rates lurking just off shore the Central and South Florida east coast, but whether those values will translate over the land mass cannot be determined., since when running a loop they simply seem to shift around in location, but remain off shore. Steeper lapse rates implies better lift due the thermal mechanisms, rather than 'forced' lift, such as created by wind boundary collisions.


Otherwise #2. Winds at 2000 ft this morning are from the W-WSW along the coast of Central and North Florida. This will delay the east coast sea breeze, which will remain light until around noon time, and not really let its presence by known until about 2-3pm north of Vero Beach. It will begin sooner over South Florida and interact with the Lake O breeze.

THUS: Expect we could see much greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms today. Cooler temperatures aloft (barely) over South Florida and sea/lake breeze boundary interactions could generate some very lightning prolific storms over Western Palm Beach, Broward, and Martin Counties...as well as toward Collier County and over the Everglades.  Boundaries could force storms into Western Indian River County, maybe Extreme SW Brevard. Other storms very close to the coast will occur (more isolated) in Volusia.  


In general, most activity will be restricted to 3-5 miles away from any coast today..with the best chances of shoreline activity over SW to West Central Florida and perhaps in Volusia County.  The greatest concentration should be over the South 1/3 of the state. Outflows could generate further activity back toward the east in Central and South Florida in the interior...and perhaps even send an inactive boundary back to A1A after 9-10pm tonight anywhere along the East Central to South Florida Coast. There could be some lingering storms over the interior until 11pm - midnight.


MONDAY: Much the same as today. Increased activity Tuesday/Wednesday.

Zig Zag lines are Ridge (high pressure) Axis'. The low level one is over East Central Florida, while the others are for the mid-levels. The legend speaks for itself in what the color code is for. In short, best concentration of storms with frequent lightning near Lake Okeechobee, SW Florida, and West Central Florida just west of Orlando Metro into West Osceola Counties, Polk, and Lake Counties. Other more isolated storms elsewhere, with probably less lightning due to less Low Level Forcing. Although, Lake Harney, Kissimmee, and those in Lake County could play in late today.

TROPICS: Sticking with the GFS for now, since there is little else to go by other than the Tropical Forecast Track Plots from guidance such as the LBAR (and 20 others). Still, these tracks for the most part are taking a developing tropical system which will likely become a depression to tropical Storm Emily in the next 24-48 hours roughly toward Puerto Rico. When push comes to shove, the system is forecast to curve just east of the Bahamas or along its eastern most islands and head toward Bermuda.  The GFS has been very consistent with this scenario, so holding on to its depiction for that reason....consistency. So far, this has been the Worst Case Scenario (to bear in mind) as far as a significant tropically developed system is concerned.  As should be expected, if the storm takes that track, it will be at its strongest right before it makes its most due north curve in the track..which would be about 225 miles east of West Palm Beach to that far east of Melbourne. This should be occurring around Friday night through Saturday, and is a representation of the Coriollis Effect which accounts for the earth's rotation and that parameter coupled with latitude/directional storm motion. Kind of complex, but point is, there is a reason for that notwithstanding other parameters that could negate this.


However! At this point, this is all speculation...could call it pure speculation now hedging on what seems to be a  'possibly , maybe good guess'. Either way, we are going to be hearing about this storm A LOT(!) in the weather arena for the next 8 days...get used to it. It should look very impressive on satellite presentations if nothing else, again, under the preconceived .."better than 1/2 baked extrapolations" at this point.


BEYOND: Under the assumption the Hurricane Emily takes this track (at time, expect it to peak as a strong Catergory 2 , minimal Cat 3 so far)...rain chances will go down for 48 hours during its closest pass and just prior to that, of Florida. This would be Thursday night through Sunday. After that point, the GFS still insists on a long term trough in the mid levels down the U.S. East Coast placing the state in moist, W-SW Flow aloft. Some days could be quite warm along the east coast if this will be the case, maybe even absent of a sea breeze on a day or two. Mid-level temperatures should be cooler once the Storm is far removed for the region. There are no other tropical concerns beyond "Emily", but the troughiness near Florida will need to be monitored for any unforeseen developments heading toward August 10-13 time frame.

"High" and Dry - Don Done Long Gone

Image from August, 2009

RECAP: Tropical Entity Don made landfall along the SE Texas last night between 8-9pm as expected. As noted, the Hurricane Center believed that it would de-solve within 24 hours...in the post yesterday we gave it a shot of 12 hours , possibly.The official proclamation of complete and utter burial of the system was  made until 3am...6-7 hours after landfall. Although I've heard some statements on TV that the drought soaked it up, technically this really isn't possible. The reality is that the air over Texas was dry to start with and there was shearing aloft hitting it from two angles. It was actually a bit amazing how quickly the storm dissolved the second it touched the coast.


TODAY: Today we begin a slow and painful transition, and as suppositioned yesterday, will likely end up be 'the all out of all outs' - the "Pit and the Pendelum" - the bathing suit on a hot car seat-  driest day statewide. Surface ridge and a bubble high across Central Florida (the Cape area specifically this hour), with a slowly retreating mid-level ridge axis back to its previous position over the South Central States is in progress. There has definitely been more moisture moving in from the north and northeast...but it's mainly upper level moisture advecting in on the descending (sinking) side of that feature. South Florida is drying out significantly this morning but that will likely change late today. Moisture or no moisture it makes no difference, because based on at least the RUC mode at leastl...the atmosphere is too warm aloft to support anything but a low topped rain shower today. I'd expect the best likelihood of such to be very late today along the SW Florida Coast, around Tampa Bay, and west of the forested area of Ocala to west of Gainesville.

This shows the surface high near the Cape area, and the retreating mid-level ridge now actually centered off this image to the WNW. It will continue to progress in the direction during the next 48 hours and begin to erode along its east side as a trough starts to build south down the eastern seaboard to replace it. Much of Florida is on the descending, subsident/sinking side of the mid-level high today.

TODAY-SUNDAY: Pretty much zero rain chances outside of some remote showers of low impact of very small size today. Otherwise, highs in the low-mid 90Fs inland and close to 88F-90F at the beach. Pretty much the same as yesterday in other words, but likely a bit warmer over the interior where some cooling rains likely prevented temperatures in and near the areas that received some rain would have been otherwise. A slight increase in showers and maybe some isolated thunder is possible later Sunday afternoon, but just exactly where the best chance of that is still TBD. Most likely it will be over North and North Central Florida, although the latest NAM suggests near Osceola County. But since when has the NAM been even remotely reliable? Not sure..maybe back in April and May. Another day to figure out..that's fine. But not expecting wide spread rains as of yet.


MONDAY: This is truly the transition day with increased thunderstorm chances...play it by ear as to where as the time draws closer, but hedged to fall back on the old GFS solution of mostly North - North Central Florida up to JAX and down the spine toward SW Florida.


TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Best days to receive some by then much needed rains, with cooler temperatures inland due to earlier development of shading cumulus clouds. One of these days might see some stronger storms, most likely Tuesday along the north half of the state and Wednesday over the South Half.


BEYOND-TROPICS: No point in going any further. Invest 91L will be on the approach. The GFS continues to insist on development of a hurricane by this time, whereas the majority of other models have the area remaining much less invigorated, remaining nearly to some degrees (with variation) a well organized wave until it approaches Puerto Rico...if it continues moving WNW..or only a wave if it stays to the south. I noticed that only 2 of 17 tropical forecast track models take the system south of Puerto Rico. On the other-hand, there is the option that the system will be taken into two pieces, one taking off toward the NW and eventually curving N-NE with the trough just off the Florida East Coast..with the southern sector continuing west as a wave.  Then there's the GFS. 


If it verified, the likelihood of the storm impacting Florida in August is equal to that of the state receiving snow. It is forming an upper level cold core low to  form and retrograde off the east coast to directly over the state, sending what would be a small hurricane Emily off to the North and eventually NE in rapid fashion. This low then moves further west, placing the state in deep, moist SW flow aloft. Granted, this was a 06z run, which from my experiences, 06z and 18z runs tend to go haywire using modified old sounding data that is by then nearly 12 hours old by the time the run has completed... so my flags are immediately lowered to half mast in absurdness to that resolve. 


In brief, any forecast beyond Wednesday..as it stands today...is complete hypothetical conjecture..with only one wood leg to stand on..with crutch in hand for support. The forecast should become much less difficult to determine though by later Tuesday once the tropical Invest 91L has either become (or not) something...combined with what the synoptic (large scale) features have in store at that time.

Mostly Dry, Uncomfortably Warm - Tropic Highlights

Exact location of Tropical Storm Don at 10AM EDT per Google Maps and the Hurricane Center's determined coordinates for the storm. Note that it is entering shallower shelf waters, likely very warm, and could organize a bit, but further strengthening is not really expected since the longer it is over water the more shear the storm will encounter both from the west and from the north due to shearing winds originating from those directions. Wouldn't be surprised to see it get a little more of a boost in the next 6 hours though...but the central pressure really has not changed much since yesterday.

TODAY: Pretty much we can sum it up by saying , "very warm especially west of I-95 to the west coast, and dry except toward the Panhandle and maybe along the SW Florida Coast with low topped showers there up to Tampa Bay. Only thunder is expect along and south of I-10 west of Jacksonville..and maybe a brief thunder near Tampa Bay late today toward dark."


HEAT: High pressure at the surface and mid-levels, as well as the upper levels over much of the SE has encompassed the Cotton Pickin' states...and the heat is even affecting our Founding Fathers at D.C. Very dry air has impinged on all but extreme North Florida..other than at the jet stream level. Expect that thin high cirrus clouds will pass overhead all day, almost unnoticeable until about 2 hours before sunset. Otherwise, cumulus clouds across much of the state will progress west with temperatures inland in the mid-90Fs. Dew-points will lower during the day due to evaporation, but remain elevated right at the beaches next to the warm ocean waters. In fact, dew points and ocean temps will be pretty much be one in the same at the beaches along A1A. High heat indices from 103F -112F are possible from Melbourne Beach to East of Kennedy Space Center with only a light onshore wind, maybe picking up some after 6pm. Inland heat indexes will not be quite as high with the lower dew points, but the ambient 'real' outside air temperature will be in the mid-90Fs regardless. Some temperatures along the west coast south of Tampa could reach the upper 90Fs. Overnight lows tonight along the immediate east coast from Port Canaveral to Miami might record near record overnight warm minimums...as overnight lows will essential equal the ocean temperature...and in some cases..also equal the dew point temperature as was the case at Patrick Air Force Base this morning with 82F/82F at 7AM.


RAIN: In a nutshell, today through Mid-day Sunday will be dry other than an errand shower coming off the Bahamas and heading toward the Ft. Pierce toward West Palm Beach area mainly later at night through very early morning. Otherwise, best rain chances will remain along the immediate Gulf coast from Naples to Pensacola. The Keys should also be able to get into the shower activity as well. 


Things will begin to change a bit by Sunday evening toward the interior counties and into Volusia County and north on the East Coast. Even more so on Monday with showers and thunder spreading into Northern North Central Florida and down the interior and west side Monday evening.


TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Best chances for showers and thunder almost state wide, exiting the east coast in some locales north of West Palm Beach toward sunset with the majority of activity near or just east of I-95 except toward North Brevard and north to JAX where activity will more readily depart offshore.


BEYOND: TROPICS TIME


TROPICS NOW: Tropical Storm Don is moving WNW toward the southeast Texas coast. Based on current projections and actual motion on loops, Don should be making landfall near or just north of Port Mansfield in Kenedy County. This county is almost completely uninhabited, part of which is composed of Padre Island. But do not focus on the center of the storm, since a vast percentage of the storms arena of action is located south of the storm's 'center'. Thus the areas of South Padre in communities such as Brownsville, Port Isabel, and Raymondville will bear the brunt of heavy flooding rains and thunderstorms. This is also a fairly highly populated area for how remote it is. Don will encounter additional shearing winds aloft as it moves onshore, and the forecast calls for dissipation within 48 hours after landfall, but I think the actual dissipation will occur within 12 hours...but moisture and rain will linger for quite some time although this is even debatable. Texas dry air might just soak the storm up like a huge 'state shaped sponge'.  


BENEFITS: The biggest 'benefit' I believe from Don will be found with the storm combined with the actual synoptic scale (large scale) pattern over North America. In essence, this pattern with Don's moisture could bring much rain to Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah going into late weekend and next week. Texas proper does not seem will benefit much at all where the rains are really needed toward Abilene, Lubbock, Midland, areas for instance. However, these 'benefits' might also be a curse for some areas in Arizona...in the form of Flash Floods in those areas prone. Most folks who live there know of these areas well in advance..and are often marked in the bigger cities.

Here is DON. The center is about where that white "L" is noted. It is moving WNW.
Believe it will make landfall around 10:15pm CDT...tonight...although if it turns more toward the W-WSW landfall
could be as soon as 9:00pm CDT tonight.

TROPICS BEYOND TUESDAY: Outside of Don, there is a tropical wave well south of Cuba which will be located off the coast of South America to possibly approaching the Bay of Yucatan tonight. This is having little impact to Florida other than toying with the low level winds in the South Half of the state at the surface today through early Saturday. There is a much more organized area of low pressure well to the east of this wave though...which definitely bears some casual observation as we approach the middle of next week.


Again, as noted our best chances for the most widespread rainfall will be Tuesday and Wednesday with less so on Monday..see above as noted in the prelude discussion.  The next system, as was 'feared' in regard to forecast consistency, is going to prove to be a big thorn in the side as we move into Thursday and beyond. 


By that time..and probably before then, this system appears will become a hurricane.  Earlier guidance has indicated that the storm (assuming it is a strong storm or hurricane as now expected)...as well as the biggest and truest to form storm of 2011, would be forced toward the NW-N - NE well east of Florida..east of the Bahamas, as it encounters the upper level trough off the U.S. east coast on Thursday (the one that will bring the state rains Tuesday and Wednesday, in part).  That trough, plus the upper level ridge of high pressure aloft are what would encounter would steer it far away. The latest run of the GFS now shows that the storm will created its own little 'couplet'...that being, a ridge of high pressure preceding it. This would essential negate the affect of the negative impacts that the larger high pressure circulation would have on the storm..and thus allow it to continue east to ENE toward the state of Florida (initially) and the Bahamas. Whether this latest run was just a hiccup anomaly or something based on reality simply needs to be monitored heading into next week.

I have left any discussion for local weather after Wednesday out, because our weather will depend almost completely on how strong and in which direction the system is focused on heading after Wednesday. The closer it gets to Florida and the Bahamas, the more the rain chances will go down...especially right along the East Coast. On Thursday..the west 1/2 of the state might not be phased at if heads on an ENE track. On the otherhand, if it starts to curve on Wednesday night..then the entire state will still be game for rains.

Near Zero Rain Chances Through Saturday as Don "Not so Juan" Moves toward SE Texas

THE RED LINE is the axis of low upper level pressures (TUTT) now exiting toward the West of Florida. This was located East of the state on Wednesday and brought the high clouds in. Much drier mid-level air follows in its wake off the Atlantic today as one can see by looking outside. See text in caption for more details.
This drier air is just now moving into all of North Central Florida today. Otherwise, in regard to Tropical Storm Don, the winds associated with this TUTT are forecast to increase over the Gulf as they merge with the strong, drought producing high pressure over Texas in the next 24 hours.  There is another TUTT over NE Mexico, with increased shear ahead of Don, especially if it moves toward far SE Texas (South of Corpus Christi).

TODAY: The trough that brought all the clouds to Florida has obviously moved on to the west as an open 'wave'. Obviously in that all of those high clouds are now absent. Wind shear with this system is creating cloudiness now way west of the state. The blue line and circles above shows where these winds are now located per latest analysis. These winds should increase in the next 24-48 hours as they combine with a large area of high pressure building SE ward toward Florida from the South Central Plains. Florida will be encompassed by the Dreaded Drought High Pressure of Texas Fame on Friday and Saturday (for the most part).


LOCALLY: Another day in which I've completely disregard each and every model for today. They all seem to have over-estimated the amount of moisture available in the mid -levels. Latest analysis indicates that there is still high PWAT air, but it is mostly contained at the lowest levels with just a bit in the upper levels. This leaves at vast mid-level dry layer which only the area in Eastern Volusia County could utilize (of what moisture remains there) to create showers along the sea breeze before this air starts to pull out to the WNW. I have not seen that any lightning has been associated with the showers in Volusia as of noon time, but there is still a small chance of such..mainly toward SW Flagler County.
Otherwise, showers are showing up on radar and satellite imagery over the Atlantic, but likely will not make it across the "cooler" waters of the near shore Atlantic waters off the Space Coast from whence they generated further to the east. Further south, the air is almost just to plain dry to support showers, although there could be some showers that will move onshore south of St. Lucie County toward sunset in to Dade County where the Gulf Stream waters are much closer to the coast.  Best chance of thunder and showers during mid-afternoon through early evening are noted as drawn in with my Crayolas.

In this image we see DON in the lower left. Don is moving toward the WNW. Remember, there is the shearing winds aloft approaching this system as shown in the first image.  Additionally, there is shearing winds to the WSW of where Don is currently vectored toward.  Showers and some thunder today as shown by the chosen crayon colors. Best bet seems to be on the West Side of Ocala toward Gainesville and west of the St John's River Valley up toward I-10 later today. There is also a chance of a storm near Tampa Bay, but very isolated. The dry mid level air has worked into the area, but if the layer of dry air is not too deep a storm or two could form there with mainly showery type activity elsewhere along the SW Florida Coast.


FRIDAY-SATURDAY: This looks to be the all in all driest period for the state, save for NW Florida. Higher humidity and persistent onshore winds will make overnight lows warm at the beaches and hot over the far interior toward the West Side of the State during the afternoons.


SUNDAY-MONDAY: The mid and upper level dome of high pressure centered over North Central Texas will continue to stretch across the SE States, including Florida. Most of the moisture will pocket across the Panhandle Region but begin to creep into NW Portions of North Central Florida later on Sunday, as a trough at the mid-levels (as advertised in previous posts), begins to dig down the Appalachian Chain, perhaps abetted by their altitude and the lee side trough created by them at the lower levels. By Monday, the Texas Death Ridge will break down with the surface Atlantic Ridge and the mid-level ridge from that area as well over Central Florida. With that in mind, storms should be able to generate mostly north and south of the ridge, favoring North-NW Florida south and eastward to Volusia County, and South Central/South Florida (activity enhanced by Lake Okeechobee in that direction). Rain chances, in other words, go up for all but coastal Southern Volusia through Coastal St. Lucie County.


TUESDAY: Surface ridge axis across South Central and mid-Level Ridge axis around South Florida with a cooler aloft WNW-NW steering flow could harbor  some stronger thunderstorms to port along the East side of the state. But will all of this new found 'troughiness" be too much? This is unusual to have a trough this far south this time of year. And as such, rather than leaving things be (and was feared might occur)...the GFS is now showing that by...


WEDNESDAY: An area of low pressure in the low-mid levels begins to circulate over Central and South Central Florida in a pool of moisture. This could mean that Wednesday will end up showery or stormy. But so far, it's looking more toward the showery side as this will be a bit of a modified tropical entity, temperatures aloft will be warmer. We'll just have to wait and see if this does indeed occur. Additionally, there is a tropical wave well out in the Atlantic that so far appears will cross the Lesser Antilles and easily move into Cuba, perhaps the Southern Bahamas. I think it is at this point the GFS is completely confused with how to handle the two conflicting synoptic scale scenarios..Will the tropics win out and place Florida in Tropical Moisture from whatever becomes of the wave, or two: Will the land mass type frontal boundary win out, leaving a scenario favorable for afternoon thunderstorms to continue. Only time will tell...


TROPICS: Tropical Storm Don Juan not looking so sexy right now. Shear is now approaching the storm, but might take another 24 hours to get there. Thus, Don could increase in strength today, but very well could weaken as it approaches landfall somewhere near Rockport, Texas (is my guess)...north of Corpus Christi. There is also shear AHEAD of the system over NE Mexico which is expected to persist. Don is a very small storm, so there is some argument that it could do just about anything. However, it doesn't really appear to be organized enough to do much more than increase in strength today before more shear moves in over night tonight. Note that all of the storm force winds are in the NE quadrant..with very little toward the SW Side. Never say never. I would not expect Don to be anything more than a Storm at landfall. Unfortunately, because of its small size (at least as forecast), it will do little to nothing to appease the drought over West Central Texas. The Dallas area toward Houston might fare much better though in that regard. The biggest hassle from this system will be localized heavy rainfalls and perhaps some tornado watches over SE portions of coastal Texas as the storm approaches the coast. Otherwise, there could be some higher rainfall totals indirectly related to the storm itself; that is, from moisture transport into areas that area very dry. These areas will not hold new found heavy rainfall very accommodating , having a hard time for the dry soils to soak the rains in.

There Lies a POTENTIAL for Scattered Thunderstorms, Some Strong, East Central Florida Today

As anticipated, the upper level low remains in place east of Florida as noted above. NNE winds on the backside of this low  are advecting dense cirrus clouds southward, along with being created by the winds and moist air aloft stand-alone. I expect these clouds to persist in various degrees all day today, with filtered sunshine. More breaks over South Florida. This low is expected to move across the state late today, tonight, and begin to wash out by Friday over the Gulf.

SYNOPSIS AND SET-UP/FORECAST REASONING:  Upper level low remains off the East Florida Coast. Circulation well aloft at jet airplane flying levels is from the NNE, and is pulling high cirrus clouds SSW across Florida. Both the moisture and the winds alone are reason for the clouds, as well as thunderstorm tops off South Carolina, like yesterday, being sheared off and picked off by this wind aloft. There might be some thin breaks off and on over Central and North Florida...but not truly significantly so.


On the other-hand, the clouds are much thinner over the southern 1/3 of the state. The surface ridge has lifted to North Central Florida, and will probably work further north during the day. But, the mid-level ridge axis', which help determine storm steering (direction storms will move IF PRESENT), are located near Lake Okeechobee. What this equates to is a storm motion in the direction shown by the blue arrows.  Moisture is still ample for storm generation without question over most of South Central through North Florida, but there is considerable drying in the mid-levels over Southeast Florida, so rain there seems unlikely other than in  the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee.
In fact, it is the Lake that might be the necessary ingredient to set the wheels in motion today, combined with the sea breeze. Granted, winds over South Florida are already a bit Southeasterly, but that is gradient flow. The true sea breeze might be delayed until around 1pm from Vero toward the Cape area, while in the meantime the Lake Breeze will also be at play on both shores..spreading a shadow toward the NNW. Showers and storms could form on either side of the shadow, and begin to interact with the East Coast Sea-breeze.


ASSUMPTIONS: First and foremost, one HUGE assumption was made today. That being, that despite the high clouds being present, heating alone which is not being hindered too much combined with these breezes will help generate storms. If that is NOT going to be the case today...then the chance of rain goes very very low except right close to wind boundaries.  Mid-level instability though seems very good today, and the KSC sounding came in this morning with cooler mid-level temperatures than it has for several days near 7.5C rather than 10C. This should aid in mid-level lift. This combined with lower level lift provided by breeze collisions could lift moist parcels via FORCING at the low levels and thermodynamically through the mid-levels, which could overcome any hindering factors (i.e., high level cloud cover).


With the above said, I'm drawn to the latest mesoscale analysis page depicting the low level vorticity building up along the SE Florida coast due to primarily stronger SE winds advecting up the coast and interacting with the landmass. This vorticity should work into the Cape area by mid-afternoon as the sea breeze develops, and provide ample fuel for further lift at the low levels.

The light blue lines show vorticity. Forecasts show this to increase further and work inland toward all  of South Central and Central Florida by late afternoon with the sea breeze conflicting with the SSW to NNE steering flow just above the ground. This will occur over the larger inland lakes such as Lake Kissimmee and Lake Harney in Seminole county.

TODAY: Thus, with the above stated...and do not forget that BIG ASSUMPTION...believe that thunderstorms could form first mostly over South Central Florida near the east coast and combine with the lake affect: showers/and storms, and spreading NNE into Central Florida and increase in number during the mid-afternoon, primarily after 3pm. These should be able to work into North Central Portions, where there could also be a merger of the East and West Coast sea-breeze toward Flagler County.  


Believe that far North Florida might be in for more of a one shot deal, whereas storms further south might be able to regenerate, at least for a while and affect mainly the eastern 1/2 of Central and North Central Florida ..waning in deliberation headed toward 8pm as the sun sets. Showers and storms could linger until around 9pm though either  over the interior or as they exit the east coast north of Brevard County.


Storms will be capable of frequent lightning and wind gusts as would be expected in stronger thunderstorms up to 45-50mph in very isolated cases..although even stronger is not entirely inconceivable in a remote, random chance if conditions come together just right. I'm toying with watching for the possibility of waterspouts as well along the near-shore and intracoastal waters of Brevard and Volusia Counties, although this is currently not being considered by the NWS. Just something to consider today, especially after 4:30pm as the sea breeze could become more unidirectional with those waterways...or what I've fondly started to refer to as 'upwind the intracoastal' or 'upwind' for short. That is not an official term, if not possibly illegitimate, but it sounds good.


THURSDAY: Done with the fun -n-games as winds start to become more unidirectional for the ESE-SE. There could be enough moisture, for late morning toward noon time showers to form along and west of the intracoastal of Brevard and Volusia. These would readily move to the west by early afternoon, after which point, rain chances look non-existent for most of Florida except perhaps north of I-10 and toward SW Florida and maybe up toward Tampa on Saturday/Sunday.


FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST: Instant replay as stated yesterday of the on-going trend this Summer of 2011. Another trough to dig down into the SE States...Monday looks to be a good day for SW and NE Florida with a ridge axis over Central Florida..with less coverage but still some storms favoring more toward the East north of Brevard but mostly just west of I-95 most everywhere. 


NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Ridges drop toward Lake Okeechobee if not further south on Wednesday, for greater state wide rain chances. This variation of ridge placement to the south has been emphasized to continue into the second week of August.


TROPICS: In the long range, although this 'troughing' is expected to persist into the second week of August, the tropics might also be starting to become a bit more active, with already a tropical wave being outlooked in the long range by the GFS weather forecast model to approach the Lesser Antilles are already proven to exist via satellite imagery. 


The tropics could play into the equation and either increase or significantly decrease rain chances heading toward next Thursday/Friday time frame. Otherwise, there is the Invest  area (very active) approaching the Yucatan Peninsula today. The jury is out in regard to where it will go and how strong it will be when it gets there. So far, I've seen anything from an open wave to a tropical storm. From what I can tell, on average it seems to be going to impact the Houston area or just south of there..although guidance diverges to anywhere toward Louisiana (which I'm discounting at this time)...toward Brownsville as a much weaker system.


In the rough cut for today..again..on the assumption storms can form by early afternoon:

FINAL CONCLUSION: Based on the assumption that storms can form, the heaviest rainfall totals due to heavier stand alone storms combined with some training should occur in the lavender area. Stronger Storms could occur in the red area, and thunder in the orange as noted on the annotated captioning of this hand drawn best guess in a worst case scenario for rain haters.

Scattered Thunder South Central and North Early This Afternoon

Upper Level Divergence in NE Flow on the backside of a TUTT Trough is pulling cloud tops SE toward Florida from thunderstorms off the Carolinas. Divergence with these winds is enhancing the cloud cover. This same type scenario MIGHT be present tomorrow (Wednesday as well)

TODAY: Just a quick post today. Activity has gotten underway within an environment that is very suitable for thunderstorms today. However, high clouds are present, as noted above, which will prevent storms from forming underneath them. Showers and thunder are well underway as I type...and so I've highlighted some areas that appear will be affected from noon through 4pm.  Some of this activity MIGHT become stronger along US1 in Brevard County south toward Indian River and St. Lucie County.  However, high clouds will be moving in during the course of the afternoon to preclude as such...as it seems now. Sea breezes have set up, but are remaining very close to the coast. I've highlighted in red where some stronger storms could occur after 4pm. Much of the remained of the state today has already been worked over with early day rains, so cloud debris and more incoming cirrus from the NE should shut down the thunderchances earlier than normal other than right near JAX and perhaps NE of Lake Okeechobee. Winds are expected to become SW before dark...so debris clouds and light rain might pass over some locations later this afternoon toward dark as well just about anywhere over Eastern Portions of Central and North Florida.

High clouds continue, with no end in site. The most likelihood for a stronger storm is noted in Red..but even those are questionable. Activity has shown quite a bit of lightning that has moved across Polk and Osceola Counties the past hour.

WEDNESDAY; Same deal applies, with conditions favorable for storms. The TUTT trough is forecast to retrograde across the state, which might put North Florida in the higher cirrus. A lot will depend on what kind of storm activity comes off the Carolinas later today and tonight.


THURSDAY-SUNDAY: Much drier (actually dry) throughout this time period with the exception of the West and SW Coast, but even those areas might not see much activity with possibly no sea breeze development.


FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST/TROPICS: There has been an on-going trend, and might add "theme" for this time frame in August. Another trough is forecast to dig down the East Coast in the mid levels ..this places the interior toward the East Side favorable for thunder storms. However, there is the ever present fly in the ointment. It is possible our next named Tropical Storm will form east of the Carolinas, potentially impacting Bermuda along the much weakened surface boundary that barely shows up over the Southeast states, but does off the mid-Atlantic Coast. This would be akin to how Bret and Cindy formed. From that point, there are signs we could again see some cirrus over Florida like today and yesterday, but so far ...esp. if a tropical storm forms..that chances would be absent.

Isolated Late Afternoon - Mid Evening Thunder Possible

CURRENT CONDITIONS: This shows very unfavorable conditions for storms to form over Central Florida as of noon. ..the blue area. This area has been slowly eroding since early morning. Also shown is some stronger thunder along the Big Bend moving east around 10 mph.  The seabreeze has not yet formed north of Vero Beach but probably will shortly. Cloud cover along the east coast is being exasperated by upper level divergence associated with a TUTT low off the East coast of Florida. This is also creating sinking air, creating more forecast issues for today in regard to anything beyond rain showers. Otherwise, the atmosphere is unstable with ample moisture between 1.7" - 2.0" of PWAT, mostly north of the northern blue line

TRANSITION DAY - CURRENT: The atmosphere is unstable today with sufficient moisture for scattered storm activity. But there is a problem. A TUTT low (tropical upper level tropospheric trough) is located off the Florida East coast. Circulation on the descending air side of the low has spread across eastern Central and starting to reach SE Florida in NE winds aloft (at jet stream level). This low is not forecast to move much today. In that regard, I am tempted to say, NO THUNDER today over Central Florida..at least not until after 8pm. However, model guidance insists on showing rainshower activity...and that might very well be all that will occur today..with a renegade thunder chance central. Most likely Thunder will occur over North Florida from its current location toward Flagler County, as well as over SW Florida and close to Lake Okeechobee. Things could change during mid-afternoon. In fact, today is a TRANSITION DAY from the past two days.


The transition is that a mid-upper level trough and frontal boundary, which will never make it to Florida, is beginning to dig down the East coast just offshore in the upper levels and more toward the west in the mid-levels. During the transition the ridge axis is slowly sinking south piece meal. There is a number of things going on  today, but it is so convoluted, slow, and disorganized in doing so that it is difficult to put a finger on anything.  This leaves to resorting to the summer norm of relying on Lake and Sea Breezes for iniation in areas where conditions are favorable otherwise which is acorss North Florida and Near Lake Okeechobee through mid Afternoon.

This is the latest satellite image. Mid-high clouds are continuously forming on the back side of the TUTT low off the east coast. These are spreading SSW toward Lake Okeechobee. WHOOPS. Maybe that area isn't so favorable for development afterall. The air down that way is also most dry.. This leaves us with North Florida through at least the first half of the afternoon

TODAY: With so many unfavorable parameters in play being 1) A cap still in place at 1pm ( 2) warm air in the mid levels with 700mb coming in at 10C (3) Cloud cover over Lake Okeechobee 4)Sinking air behind the offshore low...it is easier to argue for no thunder rather than for it..other than over North Florida which is experiencing none of the negative factors 5) Delayed Seabreeze likely leading to no sea breeze collision other than over SW and NE Florida (like yesterday). I have drawn in a wishful thinking area for rain and thunder activity today for Central, but the entire area encompassing Central Florida is pure speculation, and not applicable, if ever, until after 4pm lasting through 9pm.

Green is where an isolated shower could from, orange isolated thunder, and red some stronger thunder (any of which would be brief except maybe North Florida).

Why it could rain or thunder Central: As noted, today is a transition day. Often these transitions happen either slower or faster than anticipated. In the case of today's sketched in precipitation, that was opting on the faster side, although as of 1pm  I'm not seeing it happen. Essentially, the make or break point is going to occur between 2-4pm when Lake Breezes and sea breezes have formed and are underway. It will depend on the air mass above those breezes and where/when they meet and what the air mass above those areas is like that will determine the rain chance later today. There is the remote chance that some of the instability will remain bottled up until after dark, at which point a storm could form very close to the East Coast from Daytona to Vero Beach. These events are nearly never forecast though by guidance..and given the warm mid-level temperatures not expected to change much..the atmosphere would not be all so conducive. Best chance for a dusk toward 10pm storm would be close to the east coast and in toward Osceola County.


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: There has been references to a tropical wave. This wave is to pass well south of Florida, so the only conclusive evidence I've can squeeze out for it to aid in rain chances would be some moisture being advected northward from it as it gets just SSW of the state overnight tonight in deeper SW flow at the surface and aloft. This could also begin as soon as early evening, which gives one more reason to rationalize a late evening storm somewhere, since new, incoming moisture often results in a storm during a transition.


Otherwise, warmer days beachside are in store, esp. on Tuesday with a delayed sea breeze. Increased cloud cover should offset the inland temperatures from rising above that of past days though. Not sure there will even be a seabreeze north of Port Canaveral on Tuesday, which would mean mostly showers north of that location, possibly forming into thunder as they move offshore.  Late afternoon intracoastal upwind factor could play in, for storms close to the coast of Brevard/Southern Volusia County though...with other storms favoring the east side of the state south to Boyton Beach...with widespread shower and storm activity otherwise by mid-late afternoon mainly on the east 1/2 of the state.


WEDNESDAY: We will start to transition out of Tuesday's hard set pattern just a bit by mid afternoon. This should allow sea breezes to form all along the east coast with more widespread thunder chances with cooler mid-level temperatures with a sea breeze collision from both coasts. Activity might initiate too early in the afternoon for other than very isolated stronger storms...but we'll just have to wait and see how things play out in regard to cloud cover, speed of sea breeze initiation, and which one plays out to be the fast mover (likely to be the west coast one). We might even see a bit of an organized line up of showers and storms along the west coast by noon time marching steadily eastward.


THURSDAY-MONDAY:  Next Transition will be  in full gear by early afternoon on Thursday for deep easterly flow to ensue by late evening. There could be morning and early afternoon showers and storms along the East Coast transitioning westward by mid-afternoon, with the strongest storms far interior and west side late in the day, although a few could be retained just about anywhere Central..esp. near Lake Okeechobee and into Osceola County through Lake County..western Orange county. SE Florida should end with the rains earliest.


After Thursday, things look pretty dry through the weekend- Monday for other than SW Florida.


No tropical entities are at hand, and none are expected. The tropical wave now over Cuba should wash into the Yucatan as the trough digs down the U.S. East Coast Tuesday. Things could become more active though heading into mid-August...that is climo...and hints are already in the cards for as said.

Isolated Thunderstorms, Possibly Stronger Interior and West After 4pm

Storm with Pileus Cloud Cap (pie-lee-us) off shore the Indian River County Line early This Sunday Morning

TODAY: Difficult forecast in regard to determining what could happen where...and when...for today. Like yesterday...the surface ridge axis is across Central Florida and has been wavering between right near Port Canaveral toward Titusville. Some models are taking the ridge axis abruptly north toward JAX late today, but so far that has yet to occur. Thus, I'm treating today's forecast based on current trends, but it leaves a lot to be desired due to the great uncertainty. There are some things that are a given


NOW: Sea breeze is remaining very close to the coast if there is one at all north of KSC, where a thunderstorm is now occurring near Titusville. Other showers have been along the Volusia Coast for some hours now. Otherwise, the sea breeze is forming mainly from Martin County and South and up along the Big Bend. Any collision earlier should be way up in North Florida, with another over SW Florida.  Temperatures at 500mb are colder today, but those at 700mb are about the same as yesterday. The air mass has also been moistening up since early today, which the NAM picked up on, considering South Central was relatively 'dry' earlier today.


IN SUMMARY: What it amounts to is that steering is quite light, so light south of the Ridge Axis that gradient scale steering could be overcoming by boundaries of Lake Breezes and outflows, since motion will be so slow, the steering is almost irrelevant, but it will trend toward the NE-NNE.  North of the ridge axis it is also slow but toward the WNW-NW. Same rules apply there though too. Sea breeze should stay closer to the coast North of Brevard..and be latest to penetrate away from that county south of the ridge.  With moisture slowly filling on over South Florida and slowly advecting north, could be some collisions that produce storms with frequent lightning and gusty winds, as well as high rainfall totals in select areas mainly due to the slow storm motion. I drew in a few red areas for potential hot spots for activity today...but most anywhere in the orange might see some lightning near by or at least be able to hear thunder from a not too distant storm. 


NOTE: Yesterday, many lightning strikes were observed and recorded far from actual rainfall. This will likely be the case today as well.

Note that in this image I have not accounted for outflows that might be able to generate more activity out of the eastern most bounds of the green line. it is possible closer to the ridge axis over Osceola County mainly, that activity could present itself more toward Eastern Portions there after 5 or 6pm.


MONDAY: Not much difference from today so far...with the ridge axis near the same location as today, or perhaps a bit further south toward the Indian River County Line. Moisture availability still limited, dependant upon evaporation of the marsh lands during peak heating, then cooling temperatures later in the day which decreases the temperature/dew point spread .


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Best days for the east side of the state to receive some rain almost anywhere north of Ft. Lauderdale in the afternoons. Lots of details to iron out though, especially where the moisture will be located on those days, and where or if the east coast sea breeze will even be able to develop. The area this might not be able to occur is near and north of Daytona Beach...


BEYOND: In question, but the trend has been for an east coast shut down of rain chances other than over SE Florida as the ridge lifts well north..for a bout 4-5 days. The other trend of recent days has been for much better state wide rain chances the entire first week of August.


TROPICS: Does not look like there will be any tropical concerns through the first 10 days of August.

Cruising North on I-95 South of the Titusville/SR 50 Exit

Isolated Strong to Marginally Severe Storms Possible South Central Interior Late Today

Saturday Morning Sunrise as showers pass along the Gulf Stream waters just offshore

TODAY: Somewhat of a tricky forecast today considering how things have been molding toward since early morning. The tendencies of the level of instability and slightly increased moisture (more than anticipated earlier),  adumbrates that strong to severe thunderstorms could be in the offing today for a select location in SW and South Central Florida, possibly working even further north by early evening.


NOW: Flat out,, instability as of noon over portions of South Central Florida is extreme. That is, it is extremely unstable with CAPE approaching 5000 j/kg, and lifted indexes up to -9C. These values are on the far side of the scale from stable and up thru unstable to very unstable...higher than those.  Moisture levels are not quite up to yesterday's level of 2.0 -2.2" inches, ranging in the 1.8 -2.1" range with the highest moisture over SW Florida.  Showers in the now uncapped environment have developed along the west side of the intracoastal of Brevard, which all in all, is THE most unstable at this early hour. Some of these have some thunder.  However, all of this tremendous instability is only a potential, without a trigger it means little.  


TODAY: Believe showers will continue to form along the east coast sea breeze through early afternoon and develop into some thunder possibly quite soon (as of 12:00pm). There is very little in wind at the surface, and for the most part, winds aloft are close to unidirectional from the South to SSE..with a bit of a more SSW component toward the east coast in Volusia and Flagler Counties. However, from DAB and north the atmosphere exhibits very little potential  for even a rain shower to form, as has been the case all morning. Not sure if this will ever change. Hence, believe the best chance for the big activity today will be mostly along and South of I-4 other than much further north toward I-10. Things could change by late afternoon, but the area will have a lot of catching up to do.

LATER TODAY: East Coast sea breeze might not get all so far inland, perhaps as far as yesterday, if even. I'm starting to wonder considering ACTUAL data coming in is not matching up with what models are spitting out. As it now is trending..steering will be nearly parallel to I-95 South of the Beach-line and lean a bit toward the east North of the beach line.  However, it's only about 10 mph. This is significant because should any strong storms form and propagate further west over West Central and SW Florida..outflows could over-rule whatever steering exists.  Additionally, with the steering from this direction, storm outflows over South Florida might advect the deepest moisture Northward later today as they collapse. ASSUMING, that is, that they can even form.  There is a fly in the ointment for that area, as impressive as the values are. Namely, very poor mixing of the moisture with dry air as is see by the bulls eye of lower mixing ratios in the region of SW Florida. which extends N and east toward Daytona Beach. hard to bet mover than a rainshower started in this environment. But this could change quickly. Even now, rain showers refuse to form much further north into the green area into Daytona, and this might be why. Poor mixing of the moist and dry air.




Otherwise, the area not in the green is more primed to be rained on along and west of the East Coast Seabreeze. It is very slow to start today...and might take yet a while longer to get going. In fact, I'm not 100% sold on a lot of factors today, so today's post is a bit supposititious, angling toward the likelihood of storms. 


The other fly in the ointment is the sea breeze collision factor. Like noted before, we will need a trigger. Which sea breeze will be most eager to push inland or will they come out about equal as was the case yesterday? Activity should be able to get started along the side of the Okeechobee Shadow shortly, which has already become evident. The shadow (or clearing area) is showing to extend just west of due North through Okeechobee county as I type, and so far is inactive.  Storms could ignite on the east side of the shadow (less likely on the west side) and eventually outflows from those could meet the east coast sea breeze, in which case storms could end up even further east than expected currently.

This is my line of thinking as of noon for the period of noon (for showers in green) evolving into Thundershowers by 1-2pm and eventually thunderstorms, some strong to marginally severe after 4:30pm in the Central Portions... perhaps even later than that. As noted above, that area in SW Florida, although unstable as all get out...might have a hard time finding a trigger to set the area off. In other words, that area, as well as much of South Central, is powder keg of gunpowder waiting from someone to light the fuse. Overall, storm coverage will NOT be as high as this image might lead one to believe. But about 40-50% of this area might see rain at some time or another before the day is through...

It's is also a little ambiguous by which  it appears that, although activity 'should' be mostly isolated to scattered at some point in time over the interior, that this notion might be all for naught given some other factors are falling in line to indicate that there could be a very good coverage of storms and rain over western portions of South Central Florida late today. Again, the area in SW Florida has to be able to light up with storms, or much of today's reasoning is blown away...dust in the hot, humid, sea breezes of yore.


NATURE OF STORMS TODAY: Under the half-boiled idea that stronger storms will form, they would exhibit frquent to excessive lightning, winds in the 35-50mph range, and small hail. Only a few would exhibit these qualities. Not to be fooled, some stronger wind could occur well removed from any rain cores or even far away from lightning, particularly in the early evening toward the east side of the state north of Vero Beach toward Daytona and Ormond Beach. Scrambled might be more like it from the way this reads. The values out there being proven by actual data far surpasses what any model is showing though, so I'm going with the gusto today. I've even been a bit tempted to toss in waterspouts over the intracoastal, but chances are the early activity today won't make it over the rivers.. dust devils arent entirely out of the question in your favored Wal-Mart parking lot before 2pm though...


SIDE NOTE: There is the remote chance that right near 'prime time' for storms, much of the atmospheric moisture (PWAT air) could begin to depart the area. If this does occur, storm coverage will be significantly lower, as will storm strength. This has been shown to occur sometime close to 4 or 5pm.

Late afternoon storm passing near or over Orlando Metro as viewed from the Lone Cabbage Fish Camp in West Cocoa

TROPICS: Other than a tropical disturbance in the Antilles just east and south of Puerto Rico, there is just one more wave much further to the west. Neither of these waves is expected as of this morning to develop within the next 48 hours. After which point, conditions might become even more unfavorable for development, unless they roll into South America.


SUNDAY: It was believed earlier that today would hold hope for only isolated storms late in the day, and that notion (other than what I just went into detail to counter-literate), should be the same. Very little activity.


BEYOND: Holding true to form, the GFS is still bringing a more significant trough into the SE U.S. on Monday which should be felt first across North Central on Monday and the entire state or nearly so on Tuesday going into Wednesday. Strong storms, but isolated might be possible on these days, mainly over North and North Central Florida..although, my fear is that much of North Central (north of I-4) might mainly just be very hot, and lack a sea breeze trigger. We'll have to watch for that when the time arrives.

Oppressive Warmth - Thunderstorms With Heavy Rain Possible Late Afternoon

Very typical, tropical-like thunder'shower' near the Merritt Island wild-life refuge at noon today. This light, short-lived activity did produce just a few lightning strikes (maybe 2 or 3); however, all lightning strikes that hit ground, no matter how weak the shower or storm is otherwise, is extremely dangerous.

TODAY: In general, pretty close to a classic summertime afternoon is in progress, with high humidity and overall high atmospheric moisture content across all of North Central through South Florida (PWAT 2.0 -2.2"). Additionally, the atmosphere is nearly uncapped everywhere with moderate to high instability in place. In response to the absence of a cap and the instability, rain and thundershowers are free to form along any wind boundary generated by a body of water--be it lake or sea. The image above I suspect shows a thundershower likely creasted by low level moisture convergence of the Atlantic combined with the winds of the intracoastal over the swampy land near the wild life refuge.  Other showers and some thunderstorms are over far South Florida which began as early as 10:00am this morning and might be on their last leg until late today shortly. Showers that look like the photo below from a distance can generate lightning...even at a near by location where rain is not falling.

THIS AFTERNOON: More showers and thundershowers will form in renegade fashion wherever there is a lake or sea breeze boundary to be found, in pockets. As such, the will be scattered along these boundaries but otherwise very isolated to nonexistent.  Things will change I suspect after 4:00pm as the east coast sea-breeze should pick up momentum from the SSE-SE with the west coast sea-breeze laying closer to that coast, especially south of Tampa Bay (south of the ridge axis which is across Central Florida somewhere, meandering).


LATE AFTERNOON: With peak heating of the day subsiding, and boundaries now in full outward and forward throttle mode, collisions of Lake and Sea Breeze will becoming more likely...with newer and stronger activity evolving and subsequently generating new boundaries to the mix of greater forward motion. Thus, the strongest activity will be the last few storms of the day which I suspect will occur between 5:30pm to 8pm (as usual).


SOUTH FLORIDA: Early day activity should be on the wane shortly over far South Florida except near Lake Okeechobee. This area might have time to recover toward Dade County this afternoon to have a relapse in the early evening west of town.


NORTH FLORIDA: A lot of the activity here will be generate from the Gulf Breeze with less atmospheric moisture at hand..it should be a bit more isolated except toward the west half of the Panhandle.


CENTRAL. Strongest activity should be focused late toward Tampa Bay and over toward Lake County, Polk County, and possibly into West Orange and Seminole. Outflows could back build activity after 7pm toward Central Osceola County (northern), and Orange. Additional activity which could be meandering around for a while near Ocala and SE toward the West side of Sanford seems possible as well. By late afternoon the A1A corridor might start to cloud up a little mid from mid-level debris clouds floating lazily into the area.


STORMS LATE TODAY: Note I have used the verboten word of old, "thundershower', today. There's really no better way to describe what I'm seeing out there right now. Hardly quantifying as a 'storm' with the caliber of prolonged flooding rains, strong wind, hail..etc. REGARDLESS: Any of today's activity will have the potential to create lightning, which does not discriminate. Late afternoon, now there's your thunderstorms. I've drawn in red where I'm thinking that as of noon time those seem to be most likely.


But, like any day...by  that time..5-6 hours from now, things may change. The only real change I foresee now would be to shift that red area a bit more to either the west or east. That is because it will depend on how far west and how strong the east coast sea breeze is by early evening. Note that the latest short term ACTUALS does have activity to move in a general NNW direction, although the latest guidance is also showing that by late afternoon that motion could change to be from toward the NNE across the inland areas and along the depth of east coast sea breeze westward penetration..which will probably be close to Orlando ...north/south. This could bring activity into Western Volusia/Flagler (perhaps as well).

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Could be a down ward trend in activity with a similar pattern in regard to timing of storm initiation and location throughout the day...just less of it. There is more moisture in the atmosphere than was forecast though, so with that in mind we'll have to see how much moisture is around again tomorrow morning and Sunday...things might go even lower on Monday...before an uptick heading toward mid-week or July 26th/27th time frame, but see the next paragraph in those regards.


TROPICS: There is a tropical wave being monitored by the Hurricane Center over the Caribbean moving west to west northwest. So far, none but one model believes this wave will amount to anything more that as a focal point for increasing shower and thunderstorm activity. One model has tried to form it into a depression which then passes just east of the Florida East coast next week, but at this time that appears very unlikely to occur given what the long range models have consistently shown the pattern to be since way before the inception of this area of interest. That being, the Atlantic Ridge Axis being in firm control into Florida until a trough from the north (as mentioned in a post nearly 5 days ago)...breaks it down. This could be the reason the one model (NOGAPS) lets it curve northward.  But latest on those models shows no breakdown to occur until after this wave is west of the state.  Whether it does so or not, it could mean an increase in rain chances for the Southern 1/3 of the state next week....unless of course, it decides to curve more toward the NW-NNW on Sunday or Monday. Something to watch is about what it sums up to be for now.