Scattered Thunder South Central and North Early This Afternoon

Upper Level Divergence in NE Flow on the backside of a TUTT Trough is pulling cloud tops SE toward Florida from thunderstorms off the Carolinas. Divergence with these winds is enhancing the cloud cover. This same type scenario MIGHT be present tomorrow (Wednesday as well)

TODAY: Just a quick post today. Activity has gotten underway within an environment that is very suitable for thunderstorms today. However, high clouds are present, as noted above, which will prevent storms from forming underneath them. Showers and thunder are well underway as I type...and so I've highlighted some areas that appear will be affected from noon through 4pm.  Some of this activity MIGHT become stronger along US1 in Brevard County south toward Indian River and St. Lucie County.  However, high clouds will be moving in during the course of the afternoon to preclude as such...as it seems now. Sea breezes have set up, but are remaining very close to the coast. I've highlighted in red where some stronger storms could occur after 4pm. Much of the remained of the state today has already been worked over with early day rains, so cloud debris and more incoming cirrus from the NE should shut down the thunderchances earlier than normal other than right near JAX and perhaps NE of Lake Okeechobee. Winds are expected to become SW before dark...so debris clouds and light rain might pass over some locations later this afternoon toward dark as well just about anywhere over Eastern Portions of Central and North Florida.

High clouds continue, with no end in site. The most likelihood for a stronger storm is noted in Red..but even those are questionable. Activity has shown quite a bit of lightning that has moved across Polk and Osceola Counties the past hour.

WEDNESDAY; Same deal applies, with conditions favorable for storms. The TUTT trough is forecast to retrograde across the state, which might put North Florida in the higher cirrus. A lot will depend on what kind of storm activity comes off the Carolinas later today and tonight.


THURSDAY-SUNDAY: Much drier (actually dry) throughout this time period with the exception of the West and SW Coast, but even those areas might not see much activity with possibly no sea breeze development.


FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST/TROPICS: There has been an on-going trend, and might add "theme" for this time frame in August. Another trough is forecast to dig down the East Coast in the mid levels ..this places the interior toward the East Side favorable for thunder storms. However, there is the ever present fly in the ointment. It is possible our next named Tropical Storm will form east of the Carolinas, potentially impacting Bermuda along the much weakened surface boundary that barely shows up over the Southeast states, but does off the mid-Atlantic Coast. This would be akin to how Bret and Cindy formed. From that point, there are signs we could again see some cirrus over Florida like today and yesterday, but so far ...esp. if a tropical storm forms..that chances would be absent.