Much Less Storm Coverage Today - Special Tropical Weather Highlight

IMAGE DEPICTS MID LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH MOST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4

 TODAY: Dry SE and light flow now exists for the mid-levels along and south of I-4 this morning. There is still ample moisture for onshore moving showers across SE Florida south of Vero, but most of the showers to reach the coast should occur at or south of Ft. Pierce to Miami during the earlier part of the day.
Thunderstorms are more likely toward Gainesville and north to the I-10 speed strip.


MONDAY/TUESDAY: SE Florida up toward perhaps Vero or Southern Brevard Could get in on to more of a weather regime similar to that of yesterday...and they should also occur along to just south of I-4..mostly over the interior working toward the west side late in the day. Actually, Monday and more so Tuesday looks like a very typical summer pattern...one that we have really not seen yet this year..so who's to say, really..it will actually occur even then at the rate things have panned out this summer.


The reason for the showers/storms this past month and most of July has been the high pressure over Texas and large low pressure systems residing up in Canada. Those systems are sounding short waves troughs in the mid levels SE ward...they ride over the ridge over the Southern Plains..take a dip toward Florida..then pull out to the East and North after two to three days.  As long as neither feature moves much, which has been the case for quite some time..little will change...the next trough is expected on Late Monday through Late Tuesday..thus the increase in showers/thunder. However, this next trough is not expected to make quite the dip into Florida as those in the past.


The trough should then be lifting on out, temporarily reducing rain chances, during which time Tropical Storm Irene (and perhaps Hurricane Irene by 24-48 hours)...will move W or WNW toward Haiti or the Dominican Republic or both.  It is when that trough lifts out that Irene is expected to start making a curve toward the NW.

After Midnight, Early Tuesday. We see the surface front with the midlevel trough at higher altitude in almost the same location, Another front is approaching..Meanwhile, High pressure ridges at the surface from the Ohio Valley into Texas. This front will make it no further south..and pull out east and north as high pressure folds back over to the east to replace the departing trough. This same front should be bringing some active weather to the NE Today and possibly tomorrow...toward the Mid-Atlantic.

Also note the low near the Yucatan. This is a remnant of Tropical Storm Harvey...it is not expected to move much..which in turn ..acting like two magnets of equal charge..are repelled..that being Harvey and Irene. This might be the extra umpfpah to deflect Irene toward the WNW-NW.

Note: Irene is not looking to be a 'small ' storm by any means.  Actually, by the looks of it, by the time it gets toward Cuba'a north shore (assuming it curves)...it could look MAMMOTH. The set up is there already.

In the center is Irene..and nearly how large the cloud canopy of this storm could become. The actual storm force winds are much smaller..but it might start to look very impressive on satellite imagery by Tuesday. Note that the dry SAL air (Saharan shown in orange)..north of the circulation in general..is thinning out..the system also has an interesting banding feature ahead of it..I'm thinking that might be a barrier to protect it taking shape..in essence acting like a snow plow..or in this case..
a 'SAL Plow'. Also note what is behind Irene coming off of Africa.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY: One can only assume at this point that Irene will still exists as nearly all the models indicate will be the case. So with that notion...the weather beginning Thursday (CENTRAL..much earlier South Florida)..would begin to be directly impacted by the storm..with increasing onshore moving rain-showers becoming a bit 'squally' ..mainly on Thursday




THURSDAY: Rainshowers  becoming squalls along the coast mainly progressing further inland with time. Each band of showers to approach..or every other one..could bring in some stronger wind gusts from and easterly component.  By late afternoon, if all falls according to the GFS and EURO..the beaches would begin to experience tropical storm force gusts on Thursday afternoon..becoming progressively stronger and eventually sustained. All of this would occur over South Florida in the same fashion..only about 24 hours sooner. So that by Thursday afternoon they would be increasing to hurricane force. At this point it is also possible that much of the south half of the state will be in a tornado watch.


FRIDAY: Per the GFS, Hurricane force winds would work into all of the east half of Central Florida shortly before day break..and last ALL DAY sustained. I've looked at some of the intensity plots..and took a mean wind by discounting the Category 5 wind depicted and completely eliminated the low end tropical depression winds namely because a system of that strength would likely never make it here. So, under that assumption..it would be the east half of the state to bear the brunt of long duration on shore winds feeding into Canaveral Bight/Sebastian Inlet, and that of Ft. Pierce. 


SATURDAY: It is interesting that the GFS slows the forward motion of the system over Central Florida. That would be because at that point it would be awaiting the next trough to come on in and pull it through..lifting it north and east with time. Central could be in tropical storm force SUSTAINED winds again all day Saturday through midnight...but rains will decrease significantly.


SUNDAY: All a faded memory...with a resumption of showers and thunder by Tuesday...however, like with all tropical systems..this storm could be dragging plentiful moisture in with it dragging behind like wet mop...some showers could actually be pretty potent thunderstorms a few days after the storm passes.

GFS

These are depiction samples only: On one hand, they are not meant to scare anyone..since so much can change between now and Tuesday or Wednesday..and right up to the time of any actual event in regard to placement AND strength...if the system is even 50 miles more toward to east of these images..the overall impact would be greatly reduced in many many ways in regard to total rainfall and upwind swelling of the intracoastal waterways.

ECMWF

On the other hand.....It is a bit scary to think that winds as depicted in that first image could hang around for a full 24 hours (hurricane strength)..this seems unlikely. That was as of the 00z run last night. I believe the later runs moves the strongest winds through in 18-24 hours.  Note that the strongest winds are on the east side of the storm.


THUS, if it were to actually move toward Orlando or Tampa.the east coast is still in the wind and heaviest rainfall..which could add up to anywhere from 7-12" by the time all is said and done.


That would be the downfall if it did not pass directly overhead...combined with a larger tornado risk on the east side of the tropical entity...rivers could still over run the causeways combined with heavy rain fall if a strong Cat 2 went up the spine of the state. Talk about MASS evacuation.


On yet another hand..or are we resorting to feet now...: If Irene dawdles over Cuba for too long..it might not get picked up by the next trough...at which point..all bets are off and Florida would likely be spared a major, significant, or even blase' 
storm..if any at all. 


I'm mainly showing these Graphic Images (both literally and figuratively) to at least arouse ones eye lids off the morning cup of coffee and the funnies. The August 11th..."Are you Ready..UPDATE"...has been revised..see the blog and the link..or refer to this one here: It is chock full of some stats and other thoughts, as well as a check list...for preparation: And in that light..


http://highspeeddirt-steve.blogspot.com/2011/08/are-you-ready-tropical-weather.html


BEWARE: The minute a watch is issued (if need be)..all hellvectica is going to break lose on the roads and at the stores. Expect supplies of every sort to dwindle off the shelves..rather be ripped off them in rapid, uptick fashion. Drive carefully and calmly...watching out for 'the crazies'.


START THINKING ABOUT WHAT YOU NEED TO DO OR AT LEAST, WOULD DO. If there was no need to act, nothing lost. But it sure beats panicking at the last minute and getting caught up in all the hype with your panties in a wad.


Realize..that evacuation for anyone on the east coast might be required even if the storm is forecast to narrowly miss to the east...if it stalls offshore..or even if it suddenly were to close in on the coast (per David of 1979)...then there would be no time to leave or react in a large scale. Thus, just to play it safe ... depending on future developments in strength and course...at least monitor the updates as they come out two or three times a day at . Refer only to RELIABLE and official sources..and no one else. The rumor mill will be churning butter faster than you can make bread...and it might start even today from the looks of what I just saw on The Weather Channel.


TIMING: That could also be an issue. I've referred to a time frame only as an example..the storm is unlikely to speed up..especially over the mountains (or near them) of Haiti and Western Cuba...if the storm center misses both of those areas and arcs into Central Cuba..the mere overall size of its interior and exterior circulations will see that part of Cuba as nothing more than a bump in the road..a ripple in the walk of life...an irritating itch.  And who's to say the storm couldn't strengthen over the Glades/Lake Okeechobee? How much risk is Emergency Management willing to take? I bet they are already "Sweatin Bullets"...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRJ99wuV1ng

"No model defenestration can yet be made...it is too soon lest one do so.. only to suffer from objurgation; when what once was..no longer is." (self)


Thought I'd throw this in. Like in 1964 (Cleo/Dora..see blog link above), the fun is in no way over yet....

Off to the right..circled in blue..is an experimental outlook through mid September..hunt out Florida to get your bearings