Storms Developing Before Lunch, Near Record Highs Again Possible

Thunderstorm Approaching Cape Canaveral and Cocoa Beach as viewed along SR528 in the mid-afternoon.. At this time the storm is over West Merritt Island and north toward Titusville as it inched in from the WNW

Rain curtain now only 1/2 mile to the west of the beach. At this time, Port Canaveral was in the rain and lightning

Lightning from a second storm (pictured)
Other strikes, mainly near Playalinda to Cape Canaveral had occurred a little more than an hour earlier as well, not shown in this image of Lightning Strike Data (these are rough estimates of strikes)

TODAY: Day 3 of the variation of the same theme. As noted several times, the weather in Florida often comes in 2-3 day clumps during the summer, unless the Bermuda High is in place...which has not..and is not expected to be the case anytime soon, to come to fruition.  There are some twists to today though, mainly for the area along and north of a line from Daytona Beach toward Apalachicola along the Gulf...where it looks to be capped early today.  This 'should' change.  I noticed the chance of rain has gone UP today and Wednesday as was expected might occur (on the official outlets..or not so official ones ..Like The Weather Channel).


Image above shows, per caption text, that most of the state should be similar to yesterday...but do note:
1) The GFS of 2AM indicates the majority of the rains today will occur close to the west coast..and then right along the east coast from Titusville to Miami..leaving the middle area a bit drier. This might be because of the brisk West to East flow in place. Do believe rains will add up in those locations, but at this point see no reason to believe the center of the state will be nearly 'dry'...
2) Almost ALL models indicate that it will be much drier as noted in the image above to the north of Daytona.


HOWEVER, this might be because that area (where it is shaded in blue)..is very capped this morning. They could easily not have forecast the break of this cap...and see no reason why that area should be all so different than anywhere else..only delayed. Thus..the area in red will be later (including Daytona)...and more isolated. Daytona could also get storms that develop along outflows from stronger activity further south..this would be after 3pm.  


Two records were set or tied yesterday (Melbourne and Vero Beach) in the high temperature department, officially, which means a much larger area likely also set or tied a record high temperature for the date. As anticipated..areas further north had the rain earlier...so today..a record high could be met or tied wherever the clouds or showers have not moved in too terribly so by 2-3pm. This area looks to be further north toward JAX-ST Augustine-Ormond Beach...but south from South Brevard to Ft Pierce could also get in on the act. This trend was anticipated as noted in the post 2 days ago...although in yesterday's post I was anticipating a broader expanse of early day rainfall type activity.  Strong storms are not anticipated, but there could be some wind gusts in the 40-45mph range by the strongest storms (very isolated).


WEDNESDAY: Another day like the past few, but there DEFINITELY is a big change in the theme's soundtrack and overall tone. More of a NNW to SSE steering flow will favor the interior and east side..with the least favored being SW Florida. 


THURSDAY: Drier air moves in from the North.. Essentially, several storm producing systems (short wave troughs) are working to suppress the high pressure area over Texas. The high is being flattened like a water balloon, and spreading both east and west into North Florida but flattened on the top..as mid level high pressure.  This will squeeze into North Florida with very hot airfrom North Brevard to JAx..more record highs possible although a mid-late afternoon sea breeze might tame those temperatures down along the coast.  Are water balloons filled with hot water, like some weather forecasts are filled with 'hot' air?


 Thursday looks to be about the driest day of the week for North Florida on the East side..with showers / storms possible south of SR 50 and into the interior. More early day activity over far South Florida will end the storms there by early afternoon, with late day...and perhaps stronger storms possible from near Tampa Bay...toward Lake County...and down Route 27 into Polk and Osceola County/Okeechobee from an east coast sea breeze.


FRIDAY and BEYOND: Lots of changes in store as the state seems to be in a trend of 2 day events, favoring various locations under a variety of different conditions. It does appear that all days from Friday or Saturday and beyond will have less storm coverage and will be generated mostly as a result of sea and lake breeze convergence...although one day in there might be similar to what the past few have been like. Temperatures return to normal after Friday with the sea breezes.


TROPICS: No tropic forecast is required today. There are a few waves in the Atlantic (not too great for surfing)..of meteorological nature. The biggest of which is off the Coast of Africa near the Cape Verdes. This could have a U.S. to Mexico Impact in about 12-14 days..but it's way too soon to bother speculating. Otherwise, the TUTT/SAL (Saharan Air Layer) north of the Dominican Republic is rotating in place...the GFS wants a piece of that to affect South Florida heading toward  early next week which seems a bit doubtful..but who really knows. If it does..rain chances for extreme South Florida and the Keys would go to zero.

THREATENING clouds along Ocean Beach BLVD behind Ron Jon's Surf Shop on Sunday