Heads Up Florida! Chance of Storms, Possibly Severe on Friday

Frontal boundary is clearly evident crossing into the Florida Panhandle this mid-afternoon
Thursday per this image. The Front will be slowing down tonight, with a secondary shove to the southeast beginning pre-dawn Friday and reaching near south Florida toward sunset Friday.

TODAY: Breezy SE winds over much of the peninsula except closer to the frontal boundary which is on the approach from the WNW-NW. The front can be seen in the above satellite  image extending well south into Gulf of Mexico northward toward Crestview and Geneva. Conditions   over the peninsula will remain overnight warmer than usual  due to winds remaining elevated and some cloud cover enhanced by increasing   atmospheric moisture (precipitable water) throughout the atmospheric layers. Lows tonight likely to remain in the 60Fs closer toward 70F South Florida.


Winds also becoming S-SW overnight with a SW and slightly breezy sunrise speed in the 10-18mph range. Increasing clouds as showers and possible storms move into the Big Bend to JAX areas in the pre-dawn toward early morning post-sunrise time frame. 


FRIDAY: The front will be slowing down toward later today and tonight as its upper level supporting low pressure complex lifts more toward the NE, stretching out the boundary and slowing its eastward progress.


Upper level jet stream winds will maintain strongest, primarily across only the far North Portion of the state; yet, a secondary jet streak will develop across Central Florida  as the upper trough begins to lift ENE-NE tonight. The region very close to Dead Central Florida per latest GFS and NAM forecast models indicates that the area drawn in red will be under the exiting left region of this jet streak. Additionally, due to the timing of this system as laid out in model guidance (The NAM and GFS have finally come to a timing agreement in the 18z runs! ..for the first time since showing the system's approach)..Dead Central may have a more primed environmental, conditional impact for strong storms since this boundary will be approach that area of the state during peak heating of the day, although any destabilizing heat will be likely offset by high cloud coverage to some degree.

Light blue frontal position estimate at 10AM Friday morning. The orange and red are also first wags and storm threats (orange, general thunder with stronger wind gust and RED: tiny severe weather threat).

Concerning the upper level winds: Winds  will be largely uni-directional with height, but not entirely by any means. Additionally, any stalling could tend toward greater directional shear depending on how far northward the upper level trough lifts out. Regardless, speed shear and bulk shear both could provide the impetus  for showers and storms to create wind gusts or straight line winds in the 35-50mph, with a gust or so approaching severe category, namely at or above 58 mph. As of this time, the Storm Prediction Center based in Norman Oklahoma is watching this system for Florida impacts as I write this post. At time, the peninsula is being out-looked under a "See Text" banner, with hardly a reference to bona-fide severe weather threat, YET. They are watching  for a better signal to sound the horn.


 In that regard, and based on what I personally am seeing in the model and for purposes of this unofficial information, have included a "severe chance" in between the areas in RED in the first graphic above.


Thunderstorm chances will occur between sunrise (Far NW) to Central working south and east from mid-morning through early afternoon as the particular set up for storms works further south. By mid afternoon, the upper level supporting winds for stronger storms will be pulling out, so expecting that there will little left but a line of showers with some thunder south of the orange most southern line in the above image.


BEYOND: No so bad  in the temperatures as feared previously. Overnight lows will indicate little change Saturday and Sunday from recent days, but cooler afternoon highs a possibility. Although, given what this winter has been like so far, no special preparations with lows in the upper 50Fs to near 6oF Cape Canaveral and South along the IMMEDIATE coast..cooler inland, with lows in the 40Fs north of I-4. 


The colder morning will be, as it stands now, on Monday when a second boundary will have pulled through dry, but swing winds back toward NW..making for a much cooler morning Monday morning. That morning will be followed by a fairly rapid swing to onshore wind component..and we can call it a day with cold air threats.


NEXT SYSTEM: Having been watching and watching and watching, there appears to be indications that a more widespread chance of rain and maybe storms will be once again knocking on Florida's Door come close to this very time next week when rain again will be possible. This next system has been in the cue on the GFS model for quite some time, but given the time extension until we reach reality..anything yet can go.